Monday, June 8, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 8, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $6 win on Justice Department in the 6th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $8 win on Northern Victory in the 5th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Aloneinspades in the 6th
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on  Aloneinspades in the 6th
Best exactor bet:

Longshot exactor bet:none
Best Exotic Bet: :
Worst Bet:  Scary Harry to win. $10

Race 1


DD, $2....1,4 with 2,4
Rose Run Oriana      $8 to show

Overall synopsis: Trip likely wins this race. Whoever gets the better one and has a clear lane is the winner. In these types of races, I like to go to the steady performers and better drivers with decent posts. Doesn't always work out, but more times than not it does.

PAPER BACKED LINDY I will go to as a minor upset play in here. When he shows up, which is every now and then ---and you can never really know what night that might be---he has the talent and sometimes racing style to get it done. This is a very soft bunch. He only has to show up and perform. He does move up, but that doesn't bother me. He has the class for these. He has the right driver. He just has to perform. His last was okay enough. He stayed in and got a shuffle, so there wasn't much that could be done to get up for the win. He isn't the bravest, so you would be somewhat foolish to pull first up. He needs to do slightly better. The better post this time will likely land him closer and allow him a softer trip. He needs it. Top call. Hope he answers the phone when his bell gets rung. I want at least 7-2 and more likely 4-1 to play him for the win. Major DD factor, with another who could also be dangerous at a reasonable price. 

MONEY MAVEN was solid last time with first time Jody and stormed home to get 3rd against a sharp one who behaved herself for once. He generally wins his share with the right trip, draws the rail and only has to come back to that mile to be right there. He was almost my top call, and I could easily have rated him there. Pick em in my view between those two. 

CASH FOR GOLD closed up very fast last time, as is his MO when he is good. He was tried without the hopples, but that didn't work , so they have gone back to them now and he has trotted 3 clean trips. He isn't the smartest horse in the world, and he will still make mistakes. I wouldn't play him at short odds tonight, but he is certainly capable if he behaves and the intent is there to win. Your call. Mine? Watch.

 Play Against:

QUIT SMOKING NOW trotted a decent mile last time but was picked off by a longshot who stormed home. Now, he gets post 10, which generally hurts him, and he moves up, which also is another chink is his armour. Bad spot for him tonight. Likely back of the bus, brush late and look for a cheque. 

The rest:

MARKET RALLY---got the workout she needed last time after a month away, but did little to suggest she is a player in here. At least she trotted a decent last quarter that time. Now, she must go forward on some level from this post. Watching for now. She needs to step up.

SANTO DOMINGO---was scratched sick last time and now has been away a month. Other than that, he has been either dull or just outright ineffective on a weekly basis. He can't be played at the current moment. His time will come again. Who knows when that will be.

ROSE RUN ORIANA---the possible favorite in here, she got the perfect trip and had to only swing wide and pass the only live one in that race who had been hard used to get to the lead. She moves up here and I will avoid her for the lack of value that will come attached. She has a shot  and is a player. I prefer others for the win, but will use her in the show spot. She generally finishes well when her form is good. It appears to be now. She has lameness issues, so watch her post parade for that possibility.

HOUSE OF CASH---blew up the tote board last time and got it done. He has flashes of high speed and periods where he behaves and gets it done. That makes him very much his fathers son. While he had tons of trot in that win, he was still running in bad and had to be checked coming to the leader before passing him. He was in the right spot to be able to ramble while running in for most of the stretch. That rarely happens in pairs. I have to avoid him now unless he can start driving straighter. He could very easily go sideways and run again.  At 20-1 I might have backed him last time, at shorter odds here, I will not.

TWIGGYS TWICK---continues to try conditions when she is more suited to a cheap claimer in my view. These are pretty soft top to bottom, so I could see her making the triactor. But, not the win. Her last 3 in this class have not been near good enough in my view.

SEAWIND PASCALE---was off 3 weeks prior to her last, and packed it in abruptly when she was asked to keep up. Post 9 doesn't help her cause now as she comes back faster. The half was soft last time, and she had no excuse. Pass for now. She will likely come back around. I will keep my eye on her.
Race 2



Overall synopsis: So many different trip scenarios and pace possibilities, with variables about who will try for that front end and pocket. It throws the whole race into question. I'd just use my top two picks for the bottom of the double and take the value I get from Race 1 if I am right and cash in. It should be one of my top 2 here, but I couldn't say which.

INTIMIDATE goes 2nd off the shelf and is clearly the one to beat at likely chalk money again. He trotted home in 26.4 and that was about all any trotter can go. However, if he gets in that hole again, he might not get there again. I can't play him, but while I played against him last time, I wouldn't here. So, its a very tough race to play for a number of reasons. 

DAYLON MAGICIAN stole the half last time and only needed to accelerate enough to build up a cushion to keep the fast closing class horses from being able to pass him. In spite of being a very classy horse who has won this class twice in a row, once on the front, the other from out of the clouds, and 4 of the last 5, he is still likely to be 2nd choice to Intimidate. I can't play him tonight at short odds for the win, but he is not easy to take down. When he is good, he is very good. Right now, he is as good as he can be. That doesn't always last, but he has maintained for a long time now. Major shot, but beatable. He usually needs two weeks between races to be effective, and he comes back on 7 days this time. That makes him possibly soft to hold off the pack if he goes the front end route again tonight. 

DOUBLEDOWN GASS has altered his style a bit this year. He still leaves and wants to trot forwardly, but he doesn't go Kamikaze, catch me if you can. And he can't. Now he is playing with the big boys and girls. He needs to rate and sometimes park. He did that last time. He could be anything. We will see what he brings to the table tonight. The jury is still out on him, but I am not certain he isn't a legit player with these at some point, maybe even tonight. He has never faced the likes of some of these. Acid test time.

 Play Against:

ETRUSCAN HANOVER was good Etruscan last time. When he is good, he is really good. He is not always that. I can't rely on him, and will take his action. Even if he were behaved and sharp again, he doesn't get his own way with this bunch and isn't likely to outbrush them all either. Tough spot for him. He has the talent at some point with these. When? I don't know.

The rest:

BODY BALANCE---has had a series of tough trips to win off, and last time was kept in and then locked in when it counted. If he was right back in with those, I'd be all over him. Tonight, he meets others who are simply better than him off any trip. Pass for tonight. His time will come again. He would likely need 2 more seconds of speed for these, and I don't see it on his resume.

COOL GUY---tries really hard every time, but with this class, he simply can't finish enough. Have to keep passing. Hopefully a drop is coming and he is stil sharp. He appears to be that right now.

FLANAGAN MEMORY---was mostly flat last year as he tried to make the transition from 3yo champ to 4yo facing open and seasoned foes. He got it together late in the year and tried the best, holding his own enough to suggest this could be his year. He comes off the shelf now, and likely needs a start to get up to speed. We shall see what he has tonight. I think he can make the ticket if he is race fit. I doubt he is tight enough to win, or asked to try hard enough to achieve that even if he was. I expect him to be a major player this year, assuming he is sound. That might have been in question at times last year. Watching with interest tonight.
Race 3


Prescotts Hope  $8 to win
Koultons Rocket  $6 to win

Overall synopsis: I think form holds here and its a 3 horse race. I like my top choice for the price and barn change, but the other 2 certainly are in the mix. I'd use all 3 for the pick 3 if you are playing that. Many in here don't belong at this track.

PRESCOTTS HOPE goes 1st off the claim for Brealey, who took him at very high odds last time. He has done that before and done very well with those types. It's his bread and butter. This horse looked a bit fat to me when I saw him warmup at Flamboro, and I view the two weeks in between races as a chance for Brealey to tune him and sharpen him up. He has been good enough to beat these before. I will go with him this time again if the price is right. Minimum 6-1 and I am hoping for much more. 

KOULTONS ROCKET now has 2 in a row at Flamboro and he comes back here with a slightly higher tag looking to keep it going. His 3rd line down however is the more impressive line. Blasted from the 7 hole to the top and pacing hard right to the wire to only be taken by one who has a lot of ability the nights he shows up. He has won this class before. He has to be respected from this good post. 

LIKEAVIRGIN was awful the last time he was seen at this track, but has really turned it around at Northville. 55 flat over that track cannot be ignored and he has 4 in a row now. I wont play him this time, but he is very dangerous on current form. I will watch him closely to see how he looks. No matter how you do at Northville, Northville isn't WEG and most don't transition well from there to here. Short price tonight. Can't play him. Rozema notes that Joe C had him in December and brought him to this circuit before losing him. He was competitive then. Maybe he knows something about him that others don't.

 Play Against:


The rest:

PAIN IN THE GLASS---is a real wildcard in here. He won his last at Plainridge against total mutts, but the next level up there are not that and he can't go with them, nor would many of these be able to. So, he gets shipped here with an eye to either moving him at a price or trying to find a level and race for better purses and make money. I just don't know. The types he had trouble with at Saratoga would not be major players in here. I will pass and watch tonight. I don't know how he fits class and speed wise. Heidi Rohr is a top trainer and isn't likely to be improved on by Travis Henry. That is a dead angle.

PRISM SEELSTER---took his time down last time, but he was a pack also ran at the end of the day. I think he lacks class, even with this mediocre bunch. Better off at the B's in my view. Back there, if he isn't chewed up from chasing speed here, he might be a play. I have my eye on him for that possibility.

CALIBER SEELSTER---is 0 for 17 coming in off some less than impressive lines at London. He is a curious entry. Can't see him making the super. No chance.

HE SAID---I have learned to respect Brewer and what he can do with a horse, as well as Jody with him on this type of animal. But this one appears to be a cut below this class. I think he is better off trying a similar class at Grand River or Georgian. I will look for him back there. I can't play him here. He is capable of making me eat those words tonight. 

THE DUKE OF ZORRA---not with these. No thanks.

HOLLYWOOD HAM---bad post, horse that doesn't win and is over his head anyway. Nuff said.

 FALSE ADVERTISING---ships in from Sarnia and is really up against it in this spot to even get a cheque. Another curious entry in this race among many.

Race 4



Overall synopsis: I am looking for something to step up here and outpace the program lines on the page. We see that all the time in this class at this time of the year. And I will play for the bomb that results when that occurs. I am not fond of the favorites in here for the reasons I give on the ones I comment on.

MACH ON THE BEACH is one I will be taking a wild flyer on tonight. He ships in from Rideau, and has not been impressive so far. So, why come now? Rideau is racing twice a week and there is lots of chances to make a decent buck there and not win. I suspect they think he is ready for this type of challenge. He lucks into a very soft bunch, no possible stakes horses in this bunch in the present. He has the Mach Three/JennasBeachBoy breeding, which has thrown some very fast and capable ones. He could prove me wrong, be a total bust and rat. I expect big odds here and that will justify my play. I'd be looking for minimum 20-1. Some of the likely chalks here are ones I don't care for at all. That makes this guy more attractive in relative terms. He doesn't have to beat a Split The House or Good Friday Three type in this race. CC is at the controls. That is a major plus here, although Lareau is a pretty good driver also for a track like Rideau. Top call, but obviously risky.

R U MACHIN ME made an impressive appearance on the track last time and then raced well in his first lifetime, taking his time down and keeping up to one who got a cheque in the Grassroots and another who was a solid 2nd next out to a bearcat. I could see him going forward at a reasonable price and will use him as part of the pick 4 if I decide to play that. He has upside at this point. Now he has to convert that. Many simply go backwards off a good first showing. He could go either way. You rarely know with these types.

THUNDERSTRUCK has a lot of speed and last year appeared home free and a winner when he blew up right towards the tote board. He is the typical Sportswriter. Big ability, and a gait that holds him back from achieving it. I will not play him, but would use him in a minor way in the pick 4 on the chance he has a good night. If he did, he could easily handle this bunch. His first back this year wasn't terrible, but he has to do more now than just get around the track at race speed and follow safely. Acid test time for him.

 Play Against:

TWIN B SPORTSMAN seems to be progressing well on paper. But, he was locked on a line last time horribly, and in fact put in ugly steps much of the way, which got the inquiry sign up when he backed into another doing that on the far turn. He is one that might be better if fixed up, but I will go with him simply not wearing well and likely on his way to Georgian after this to go try and pop his cherry there. 

RAFA  is likely to take major tote money on two variables. He is a half brother to a Putmeintogo, who has worked her way up to the Preferred and won it for a while in the winter. Secondly, his fast finish in the qualifier. I will note he is a first time starter, and also that his sister was on the dummy list for months trying to learn how to follow the gate and behave. Every horse is different..but..I wouldn't take short odds on him tonight and will book that action on the likelihood that he is not the winner or will be at short odds. Risk/reward.

The rest:

WINDSONG LEOPOLD---is a first time starting half brother to Hollywood Ham, who is in the race before this. His mother was a very nice race mare. I hardly ever play first lifetime starters at this track, unless they have much higher aspirations that are plain to see. Pass and watch this one. He appears to have talent based on what he showed in the qualifier. He will have to be seen. I have grown very suspicious of any Sportswriter until I see them pace, on lameness and gait issues. 

OPENING NIGHT GEM---is impossible to like on many factors. Mostly, he fit the profile of a horse who could do it well at Northfield but bombed at this track. Now almost a month away, he will have to be seen. He would shock if he was way better. Herlihy is good off the shelf, but this horse is highly unlikely at this point.

JIMMY BE GOOD---is out of a rat mare who seems to have duplicated that already and this one doesn't look any better. Hard to see this one even getting a minor cheque. Not the first one these connections have brought here that probably belongs at the B's first.

DEES ROCKETMAN---paces fast, but doesn't pass when he has the chance. He chases high end colts and does the same, but then when he meets softer ones like these, he doesn't use that experience he gained to beat up on them. From the 9 hole, I have to pass. I will watch to see if he is figuring it out. So far, I don't see it. He might still be a maiden come August, unless they want to score and ship him to Georgian or Grand River to win that against mediocre B track types. I suspect they would rather keep him a maiden if he can't beat these. I am not sure he can.

ADORE HIM---exits the drug infested barn of Bill Robinson for somebody I do not know. And gets the 10 hole. And was acting like a nickel bred rat as it was. Okay. That should be enough commentary to lead you to believe he has no shot here.

Race 5


Overall synopsis:I see this as either the class and form horse holds on the drop, or the horse that has been underperforming steps up and turns it around for a price. The rest seem unlikely but still capable if things go their way, which they must.

CATCH THE DREAM drops down and is the obvious play as he picks up McNair, as Randy sticks with the half brother to San Pail who is likely being pointed at the big dances if he pans out. Tonight, this guy is rock solid if he is as is. He was overmatched last time against that very high end bunch,  but trotted a back half in 55 flat. If he gets away good and duplicates that he handles this bunch. I'd want at least 8-5 to find out if he is worth that play. If not, I pass on him. 

NORTHERN VICTORY has really fallen off the cliff from the tough cookie he became last year. Joe C's stock, most of them, have also followed that trend, but appear to be coming back around. This guy has burned a lot of players who have been playing him to reverse also, and I think many are done with him. Just the right time to get the price on him now, with J. Mac, who does that exact type of thing weekly. If my top choice isn't the one this is the best price option in the race I can find. He is capable. He is also a 22% winner the last two seasons, mostly racing at the high end he currently is. Winners win. Eventually. Don't discount him. 

ADVERSITY looked so good a month ago, but then got screwed by the pace the next start and was raced easy last time to build confidence. He can make amends here at a fair price if things go his way. I'd want 6-1 or more. At those odds, he is viable and playable. I still maintain he is the best trotter Moreau has. It might take until Thanksgiving to see that consistently, but that is my position. 

 Play Against:

SLIP INTO GLIDE drops out of the Preferred where he was just filler anyway, and now that the money is off his card, back in with the types he can handle. He has employed that pump and dump strategy for a while now. But, he had some passengers take that ride with him on the way down this time. I say he isn't as dangerous trying it this time. The 9 hole and Mario are enough for me to suggest I am comfortable taking his action tonight.

The rest:

ZEUS LIGHTNING---draws better this time, and has been racing better lately. I'm still not sold that he hasn't lost a few steps and will have trouble at this level getting his picture taken. If he keeps up the good work, I'd consider him down a level or two.

BURNIN MONEY---burned me last time by winning on the way up, and doing it with authority. He goes up another level, and I'm not about to start playing him now that the price gets shorter. Nor am I going to take his action. He is just too hard to read, as many Cash Hall's are. His 10 for 60 record the last two seasons is hard to ignore. So is his penchant for burning chalk money when he seems like he is in good form.

DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR--draws the 20-1 ML, and I can't see that. But, I also can't see Randy doing anything but getting him around, taking his time down to 54 and then racing him for real next week. So, I am watching him this week for the score next time or the time after that. If things did happen to fall in his lap, he is likely capable of winning at a healthy price. So, not taking his action either.

HER NAME IS LOLA---appears to be losing her sharpness now, and can't be used until she reverses that trend. She was sharp as a tack when the meet opened, but that is in the rear view mirror now.

LITTLE RED CHEV---goes for 3 in a row and while she has really been impressive and stepped up, this is entirely another ballgame if she wants to keep the trend going. She will have to pass some very nice horses this time. I think Jody is smart enough to know that she hasn't showed she can..yet. He will race her that way and we will see what she is made of.

WINDSUN REVENGE---is one I thought long and hard about playing. But post 10 is a big problem for this one. I will just wait on him for a better post next time. He is gradually improving as time goes on, and I wont be at all surprised if he makes it to the Preferred and lives there come fall. For now, he is up against it with too many inside him who are just a touch ahead of him at this point.
Race 6


Justice Department $6 to win, place, show
Surf Report   $4 to win
AloneinSpades  $10 to place, show

Overall synopsis:The chalk looks very suspect in this one, and the next best one on paper is not a cinch either. Play for price and for a horse that has been knocking in recent weeks. These types are hard to hang your hat on, go with the ones that at least pay well when you get it right.

JUSTICE DEPARTMENT tried Grassroots types last time, but got away poorly and was never in contention. He is back in with the types he can pace with. These aren't true maidens, but most of them are and the ones who aren't are still pretty close to that status. If he steps up this time and continues on the progress he showed a few starts back, he is in the mix at a decent price. I hate the likely chalk here, and that inflates this guys value to a level that makes me take a shot at him. Price play and he seems as good as most in here. 

SURF REPORT paced a faster overall mile, evenly last time to keep up and get 4th. The winner of that came right back and won a Grassroots convincingly. He has to be respected, and although 0 for 16 now, he could pop on this bunch at big odds. Pick 4 player for me. 

 Play Against:

SCARY HARRY won his on this track when shipped from Balmoral, but looked horrific doing it. At London next time in the Gold, he blew up as you would have expected him to do. Randy is back on board, and after the first drive, I'm sure he knows what to expect and will handle him with kid gloves. He has the talent to win if he can get around clean. I'm not certain he can, and even if he does, Randy might have to baby him so much he can't get it done. He could completely miss the ticket also, and thus, if he were to take serious play in the show pool, there could be a lot of value elsewhere.

The rest:

ALONEINSPADES---goes 2nd time Moreau, and gets back in with basically maidens, which he beat at boxcars a few starts back. That is a considerable edge, but I'm not sold he is good value tonight based on how he will get played for all that. I will pass on him for now. He did pace a back half in 54.2 last time, and that has to be respected. I'd play him place and show here for the value that might create if Scary Harry completely implodes.

DESERONTO---has gotten away with two soft halfs at Flamboro, but made the most of it both times and last time went much faster. He wont get any of those breaks here, and he will have to show he can pace complete miles to win this. Based on his breeding, I am not sold he will. I watch him tonight to see if he can.

SKY GUY---is still a maiden and went backwards last time as I expected after I watched him pace around London the time before bearing in horrible and locked on a line. Until I see that corrected, he is persona non grata with me. I had hopes for him the first few starts, but he has not worn well, as most Sportswriters seem to not do.

CASIMIR OBAMA---backed out of the pocket last time when he faced tougher than he appears ready for. He also had trouble with this kind before that.  He appears to have some ability, but is being asked for more than he currently can give. I wait to see when the rubber might meet the road on that front. Not yet in my view.

MYSTICAL JET---was given a start at Flamboro last time and failed as the chalk. I don't like his breeding and he is likely to not go forward when asked to. Pass on him. Likely a B track horse, and a suspect one at that.

STEVES LEGACY---was in the softest division of the Grassroots last week, but still did little and draws bad here. He is very hard to like for anything but 4th or 5th money. 

REBEL CHILD--continues to pace in the middle range and neither go forward or backward. Post 10 tonight. More of the same. Hard to figure him out and tonight isn't likely to give a better read.

Race 7



Overall synopsis: Likely a trip wins this race. I am going for the one who can leave and get the rail trip behind the speed, or the one who is just in back of that and tries to pass them all. But really, many of these can win this. Many to use in the pick 4 to close it out if you are playing that or to start the late one off.

KEYSTONE DALTON was hard used and raced again last time, but he didn't last all the way like the time before. He did go as fast, and he didn't get beat much. He still seems to fit well with this bunch, and I'll go to him this time. Jody has a good read on him, and is likely to seek out a bit more of a breather this time. The field is a bit softer than last time. That helps him a tad, which is probably what he needs. 

I SCOOT SAM came back around last time and almost scored. He seems to go on runs where he is very good and then many claimers do. He is heading in the sharp direction. I can see him if my top choice isn't the one. 

BIG TIME ROCKS ships in from Philly and is the wildcard in this one. First time Johnson on the past high performer angle. He can get the wakeup call here if the junk kicks in at first asking. Your call. I wouldn't leave him off the pick 4 ticket and have him blow by them all like some gassed up monster on crack. But that is just me.

 Play Against:

IDEAL SHADOW almost got it done last time and has another poor post to try and overcome again. He just can't seem to get there. He is a half leaver and he will likely take the long way around again here with these. That doesn't add up to a winning trip to me.

The rest:

REB THE RAIDER---still looks like a bit player to me with these and that is likely where he remains. Same as I said last week.

WEB CAM---the less talented half brother to Modern Legend, he wins his share at the B's and makes a good buck. He tackles the big boys tonight. He has not proved he can handle them yet in his career. He will have to show me where he fits. I will observe him tonight. No play.

AMBLE OVER HANOVER---a real hot and cold type, you rarely know which you are getting any given night. Jody picks away from him. I will as well. He won when he should have, and he appears to be tailing off. I can't use him currently. He will come back around. He always does. 

GRANDE SEELSTER---is a very win shy type. He hung last time, as he has the last few. More of the same here. Carmen's horses pop up at any time, as we have seen the last two cards.This is one he just can't to seem make go or figure out. Maybe he just doesn't have the high octane gas Adams does. 

TOPCORNERTERROR---is a great tag along type, but has very little grit or desire to win and pass horses, unless they are stopping horribly. He is the classic Western Terror and from out here, no win play for me.

TWOMICKEYTRIP---beat these last time with a blast move to the top and a take no prisoners approach. He finished with the classic Adams gas punch, but if he tries for the top here, he is getting the parking ticket. When that happens, he can get bearing out very bad,  very much like Lovely Erin did the other night. Pass on him from out here. 


Race 8



Overall synopsis: I think class and form holds here. So, I stick with the class and the one who can get out and get the right trip if he can't get it done. One of those two. The balance appear overmatched to me.

CHARLIE IS A JOKER my top choice on the class drop. He is very win shy, but he has been a bit more aggressive lately and he meets the types he can dominate without having to do much. If they did make him work hard for it, he is likely to be in trouble. I call him, but he always concerns you with how he just doesn't like to pass horses. 

HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS was all systems go last time, as expected, but couldn't hold off Burnin Money, who simply out trotted him when it counted. I suspect Sylvain will try the exact same tactic this time, and only follow if a legit one comes at him and he knows he can follow him with confidence he will get back out. He has a shot.

 Play Against:

WHISKEY TAX still doesn't look right to me. He just isn't the same horse. Maybe he will come around. I just don't see it yet. Until I do, I will keep going against him.

The rest:

not rated--
Race 9



Overall synopsis: I view this race at a front end pace race, and picked the likely pocket sitter to take the likely pace setter. In reality, it can go either way.

GENESEE Got the parking ticket last time but draws better here and hopefully can get the 2 hole ride behind my 2nd choice. If so, he has the class and sharpness to take advantage of that. He needs that trip, but will likely win if he can get it.

INTENDED STYLE is very good right now and the one to beat. But to keep wiring these types is just very tough. He likely gets picked up at some point, and I think tonight might be that night. 

RAVE ON always has pace but starts up too late and arrives too late. One of these times, he will get there in time. I don't think that is tonight, but its possible. He has beaten these before. Minor shot.

 Play Against:


The rest:

Jac Spade--just doesn't win enough for me to back him, even at this level. He needs everything to go his way, and that hardly ever happens and isn't likely to here. Pass on him and the likely short price. 

The rest---I don't see any of the rest being very dangerous with this bunch. It's my top 2 or the 3rd one if he happens to be close enough this time to go by them all.
Race 10



Overall synopsis: I am going against the chalk and the class dropping veteran who likely take the bulk of the money here. I think price will win this race. Any of my top 3 could be that one, but I prefer the top choice best. Barely.

WHOSURPAL Gets my top call in a race where many could be the one. He comes back to this track after taking on a very sharp Hunch Man and Twin B Wrangler and holding his own. He couldn't go with Mr Dennis the last time he was here, but he went a long way to him and didn't give up. This is the type of horse Jody wins the last race with many nights. I am looking for a bit of a price here. With his tactical gate speed, I think he can get out and ahead of many, and that is half the battle in beating these types. 

VELOCITY DRIVEN  tries the softer condition. He needs to get out closer to the pace to have a shot. He might and he has a shot if he does. I just have a hard time backing this horse now that he has won his way out of maidens and nw2. He needs to find a claimer, or luck into a perfect trip in this class. That is tough to count on.

BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL gets in even softer here, but the lower he goes, the problem remains finishing the miles enough to get the big prize. He certainly can, but he has burned me so many times that I can't back him anymore.

 Play Against:

just isn't the same anymore, but continues to take money like he is. He has become a hanger and non trier, and I can't like him until he stops that habit. He is getting up in age, and the tank might be getting empty at this point.

The rest:

SOUTHWIND AMAZON--hits the big track in start number 2 for Adams. He parked the entire mile at Sarnia in the Adams curtain call and blitzed them. He will take monster chalk money tonight, but I think this might be one that doesn't go forward for him. We shall see.


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