WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 25, 2016

RACE 1

1 California Rachel left out well last time, stayed in behind Perfect Road, who figured to go forward. However, he never did, began to back into her, while she had a hanger to her right and the horse in the 2 hole was also backing up. There was no way out until mid lane where Fillion had to zig then zag back to the rail while the pace was picking up and she settled for a going forward 4th. She isn't always that consistent to go forward off a trip like that, but these aren't tough or deep. I will call her to hopefully get in the 2 hole and have a shot to trot home the winner.
6 Donicus got a heads up steer by Green last time, and maybe he has learned to use a horses one move wiser overall. I could see him leaving a bit more this time and trying to get the top or making a retake if that becomes necessary. He is the one to beat on paper, but I will call him 2nd. These types don't hold top form for very long and he could be in even money territory here. 
8 Southwind Gizzel comes in off the shelf with a sharp last quarter in a going away win in the qualifier. However, she also has to move up from maidens to nw2 with a bad post, because she won 2 last year and made a bit of money. She is a tiny filly and I'm not sure she is up to these yet. I will watch her once. Dagfin usually seems in no hurry with his young ones.
7 A Rod Hall took off running last time, something he tried to do the start before but J Mac held him together. I suspect he tries to do that again, and brush him late under wraps, as he also did that time. That gets him 3rd or 4th, but not likely the win picture. That all  presumes that he doesn't just run anyway early and dig a big hole like last time.
3 E L Ima Diesel was entered for Flamboro but didn't get in, so they come here to keep him raced. Obviously, Flamboro looks like a better option at this stage to keep the train rolling. He has won two in a row, the first one first off the shelf daylighting them, the last on the front, even fractions most of the way under wraps against nothing that will ever see this track. He is a one speed type who seems to be getting his act together at 4, but hasn't shown the speed needed at this track. He does have issues with the turns at Flamboro, so he could be a bit better here. I want to see him show he can beat 2 minutes, which he has not yet. He is a long way off the speed Donicus and others show in here.
2 Rose Run Reanna comes in off a break in stride late and 3 weeks out. Blake's stock hasn't done well lately and he is streaky. I will pass on this one tonight.
4 What a Peach did little from the 10 hole last time, but draws better here. In any event, he has been a bit player in any race at this track. I will pass on him until he shows some desire to go after the leaders.
5 Perfect Road was going backwards 2 back then ran at the start last time. On his best day he can take a bunch like this, but he has very few of those. I will pass on him.

RACE 2

7 Lmc Nukular Stryke went a training mile at Flamboro last time off a sick scratch with far better than he can handle, but right back with these, less the winner who beat him last time, he has a big shot to take them all down. This could be a very gapped out field and that helps him avoid any road trouble if he takes back, or leave him room for a breather if he blasts out. Price could be the issue. I don't want less than 5-2 on this guy. I'd expect and hope for 7-2.
8 Man of Many Arts draws the outside, has been off 3 weeks and has burned win money many times this fall and winter. He will be a very big price, and while he is not easy to like, I have seen Gibson bring ones like this many cold winter nights and they turn it around for a start. I will tab him 2nd as a price option. Any of my top 3 are playable and I'd use them all in any pick exotic feature.
4 Sky Guy left out last time but tucked immediately. He stayed put until the turn for home, and at that point was trapped and racing for 2nd money as the long gone winner daylighted the field under wraps. He got that cheque and doesn't have to face him again this time. He has a fair shot to take all of these, if he uses his gate speed to get up closer and doesn't get gutted to keep that position and the flow goes forward this time. He looks better than the two likely faves and I will give him play on the expectation that 4-1 or higher value is there. It should be, and then some.
1 Stonehouse Petey left out hard last time but that left him hung. The cinch winner threw him a bone and let him clear and then retook and said goodbye to the field. This guy raced well, considering it was first time Montini off the claim, and he went fast enough to handle these most nights. However, he did let the 2nd place winner slip up inside him and pass him. That is a concern and being that I expect him to take a short price this time on the "second race tighter, second race new trainer" angle, I will take my chances he is short of whomever is the winner here. He is likely top 3, but not the winner.
2 Hp Black Shadow ran just as the gate sped away last time and disappeared. He had every chance the race before but got picked up then. He is one of those who finds a different way to lose every time, assuming that he is involved, which isn't always anyway. Another I will take my chances against on the overbet, underperformer angle.
6 Earthquake Madness shows nothing to suggest he is in the ballpark of even these hard to like foes.
3 Einhorn continues to leave, travel dangerously and lose drivers who don't want to be aboard when he does something really bad near the top and causes a wreck. In my opinion he should be on the judges list and not allowed to race until he is sorted out. In the meantime, drivers put him in the center of the track to keep him out of harms way and nobody wants to let him go and be behind him. He has 6 starts this year and zero dollars made.
5 Sports Vision was at the back last time, could not keep up, bearing in horribly in the last turn with no advancement. He is impossible to like, even on the Nixon angle.

RACE 3

4 Jagersro  is certainly the wildcard in this bunch. She showed speed and went with decent minor stakes types before being shut down. In her qualifier, she left out, but was gapping from the get go and walked home in a manner that would suggest a second qualifier to get her on the right track before facing racehorses. I frankly don't know what to expect, but I would think a soft rail ride and a brush late if that is in the cards to be the desired trip.  Could that pass all of these? It could. I have trouble even listing anything as the winner here, so its likely a non betting race for me and I'd want my top 5 all evenly in the hope that the longest of the 5 gets up and sweetens the pick 5.  

2 Fashion Star shows flashes of high speed, but also many breaks and when not breaking, gets away way back to keep him trotting. He might grow out of that, as many trotters do, and it could be tonight that he puts it together. It could also be in May. Your call. I will put him up for 3rd and I'd use him in the pick 5.
6 Jayport on Th Edge is sure to get play here, as everybody saw that he got pinned in on the turn and lost many lengths while the leader began to open up. Once free, he came on, got 2nd, and would have reeled in the winner in a few more strides. That was then. He is 0 for 14 now, and he is an excuse pit of broken pari-mutuel promises. I will pass on him here. He likely makes the ticket, but he isn't on my short price radar. I will wait for a better betting spot. He is also bearing in enough in the turns that it hurts him and that needs to be addressed or he is hard to play period.

1 Windsong Magic parked out a long way to make the top in her first try at this track, then tried to walk the 2nd quarter but was swooped and passed by another who trotted all she could to the turn and this one was beat by then. That leader stopped to a walk at the tote board and made this one look like she was coming back on. However, she trotted a back half herself of 1:00.2, which continues her slower back half racing style. If she tries to cut this, which is likely considering her driver loves the front, she probably gets picked up. She was also racky gaited in the last turn when she needed more speed to fend off the winner. If pushed, she very likely could jump it off. 
5 Dead Red Hitter came ready to play Monday night, swooped up in the 3rd quarter and blew by that leader, while opening up enough to safely hold off the only one who had a reasonable shot at him. That probably gets him big time play here, and while I cashed on him at 19-1, I wont be giving any of that back. I simply will not play a green trotter back on 2 days rest, and especially one with breaks all over his resume. Pass.
8 Une Duharas  stayed back and did little last time. I don't see any hope for this one at the A track and she is likely moved out of the barn very shortly. She isn't paying her way.
7 Murphy Paree left and stayed flat last time. That is the good news. On the other hand, she didn't improve her time and backed through a very weak field. I can't go near this one until she shows she can stay flat, leave a bit and not stop to a walk.
3 Stonebridge Peace  has trouble staying flat, and doesn't show much anyway. Can't go near this one.

RACE 4

1 Crown Isle likes to be on the front or the pocket. First up is not his trip, so he sat in the 3 hole when he was outleft and didn't move until the turn, and raced okay, just giving it up very late. Under a different trip scenario, one where he blasts out, protects the rail, and either lets Future Million go and retakes, or sits on his back this time, he is viable for the price. That price would have to be 9-2 or higher. He is very trip dependent and no sure thing even when he gets it.
4 Jac Spade avoids tougher ones that would give him a lot more trouble than these will.....Intended Style, Velocity Headlight, Chicago Hanover, One Warrawee, Just Henry..etc. Christoforou has won with this guy many times before, and knows how much he's got with him and when to move. He doesn't win much anymore, but he pops every now and then. This is the softest spot he can find this winter. Call for 2nd, but I easily could have reversed my top 2 picks.
3 Future Million got the trip he likes last time. He left to make the top, got the breather to the half, no challengers to the top of the stretch, so he went sensible fractions yet was picked up at the wire by the one who pocket sat on his back the entire way. A good overall effort. I'd expect exactly the same trip here, unless Crown Isle gets away good and wants the front with a retake. That wouldn't be terrible for this one if he fell into that trip.
5 Kablooie  was parked the mile from the 10 hole last time and backed up with that excuse. He has decent enough form and a better post here, so if he were to get away 4th or 5th and pick up a live helmet to follow, he has a fair shot.
6 Lost in Panslation got the dream trip last time. He got out fast, beating Crown Isle to the rail, then let the obvious leader go and he carried him to the tote board with no one outside him to make him do anything but wait for the one move to pick him off...which he did....barely. Based on his post position here, he wont get that trip and his shorter price this time means he is likely poor value. Pass.
8 Shiftyn Georgie is one I don't think we've seen before at this track. He arrives off a nice win for 5 at London, claimed by McKinnon and tackling tougher on the rise with the 8 hole. I want to see him once. He is hard to list on the win front at this stage.
2 Buckshot Austin left out last time, stayed in, got a shuffle and came on late for the smallest cheque. The top 4 were all together at the wire but he didn't reach them while the 3rd place finisher came from way back. He just doesn't do enough and I like others better. Pass.
7 Prince Adam did nothing last time to suggest he belongs in with this bunch. He is a big longshot to make the ticket. I'm sure his connections will be happy when Charlottetown starts up again.
9 Big Unit won 1 of 35 last year and draws the 9 hole here for a try at the big track. He was 2nd last time to one who won this class the last time he tried it. If he had drawn better I'd have given him a longshot chance. Spotting them 10 or more at the quarter is enough for me to discard him tonight. I will watch to see if he is legit if there happens to be a 2nd date.
10 Rolandale Buster had no pace last time, and drew the claim. Right back in for 8, but he draws the 10 hole. I can't touch him until he draws a post that will allow him to get involved earlier. Pass.

RACE 5

10 Wichita Lineman was Rocky in against Apollo Creed last time, and we didn't get the Hollywood ending. He took a run at that one, even getting to his wheel, but when it was time Randy just let the other one loose and this one got the worst of that, losing 2nd to another. He wont meet another one like that for a while, even if the 2 is a very nice horse and the 3 has tried stakes colts. I will call him to overcome the post and race back to the impressive effort he put out 2 back to break his maiden.
4 Goodmorningmister was solid last time, leaving for the 3 hole, following along and tipping out in the lane to beat my choice here right on the line. You cannot knock how he has progressed and showed he fits this class and track. Fillion sticks with him and takes him over Moreau's, who frankly is not an impressive racehorse.
2 Dreamfair Mesa took a lot more money last time than the program suggested he should, then floated out like Randy knew he could do what he wanted when he wanted to. He made a move to the lead, then cat and moused a challenger until just after the top of the stretch, then drew off to win with the only legit one pinned on the rail. He was also reluctant to pull first up and could have gotten pinned in, as well as on a line bearing in quite a bit into the last turn and turning for home. On paper, he is strictly the one to beat here, likely at a very short price again. I will go to two others, but he looks tough if he learns from that effort and they can get his head straight. He wont have it so easy when something more talented than Century Churchill comes at him.
6 Scary Harry got away 4th last time, went after the chalk leader after he got a big 2nd quarter breather, and faded at the end as a result. He is tactical and if he can leave like that again and find a helmet, he has a shot to make the ticket.
1 Cool Reward beat nw1 two back, and a sad lot they were. He ran first try with these,and now changes trainers, to a highly respected guy who knows how to right the ship. I don't like him at all in this spot, but I will watch to see if he steps him up.
3 Three Truths other than picking up Big Bang Boom when he went bust bust bust on the engine, this one has been nothing but rat city. Pass for me. He hasn't taken to the Moreau program.
8 Princesss Diamond got away near the back last time, didn't look pretty or like he was going to do anything on the last turn, but got it together in the lane and nabbed 2nd. He is not very sound, but he tries hard and the odd night he can get it done. Trevor goes to Puddy's one, and he gets Phil. I like others better. Overall, he meets tougher ones this time.
5 Rolling Rock left out, stayed in and sat third, had no room much of the way, found a seam and paced home okay, even, but was outpaced by others. I will pass on him again. He just isn't doing enough.
7 St Lads Charger was no factor in the Count B final, nor the leg before that. As with many of Puddy's, they go good for a few starts then fall off the planet sharply. Based on his breeding, this one will be aimed at the Grassroots program in a couple of months, assuming he is still walking. Pass for me here.
9 Think Again wont get anywhere near the top with these from this post. Without that advantage, the big longshot he was anyway makes him a total toss.

RACE 6

This is a tough race to rate. I hate most of the ones who will be the top 4 faves, and the only longshots I can see are impossible to back. So, I go with the non performing ones who occasionally come back to the form they have shown from time to time. Its a stab kind of play. I'd rather lose on them than play favorites I don't like at all or longshots I dont see having any chance.

3 Flexceptional is hard to like on her mid pack form, but one of these nights she is going to blast out of there, wire them or sit a two hole and pop in the lane. I will take my chances that will be tonight. Not confident, but in my view, she looks just as viable as the likely 3 faves in here, with a much better price to risk ratio attached.
5 Harleigh Ryder is worth taking a risk on as a shipper who shows times that are within reach when you allow for the track variant and the weather lately. Those are very loose standards to make a claim like that. Jody and Laver teamed up with Muscle Time to score a bombs away upset, and while this one appears nothing like that one, its possible.
9 Elmo Rockbottom has drawn badly lately at Flamboro, and does so again here. He has won at this track a few times, and mostly it was a big price. I'd give him a minor shot to do that here again.
4 Crowningcrest was a good 2nd to Domitian Hall on his return to this track and Kerwood's barn. He has a shot, but as the likely 2-1 favorite, I have to look elsewhere. I'd have to use him in the pick 4, but I can't justify taking that kind of win price on this one. He doesn't hold soundness very long when he is forced to go faster based on previous history.
7 Townline Momma stayed flat last time, but got the parking ticket and tired. She is reclassified tonight to have a shot, but I don't think its enough. Minor shot if she wakes up, behaves and gets the trip. Even if all that happens, she still has to win.
6 Magical Pumpkin went to the front last time, cut the entire mile, but was wonky and lame the whole way, especially in that last turn. She appears on her last legs and is hard to back with the short price she probably brings in with this sorry lot. Lasix seemed to help her stay at it towards the end, and with many playing the 2nd time Lasix angle, I will play against her. She could easily jump it off this time at some point.
8 Boot Scootin Loral  was claimed back by team Wray, and while there is some form to suggest he can fit in with these, he is a 7yo with a mark of 2:02. Its not enough for me to think he can take these down from the 8 hole.
1 Herecomesthebride has not responded to Moreau's program and I don't see any hope. Pass.
2 See R Chin Win got daylighted by Freddie then was jacked up over her head. Still don't like her one bit. She is a rat.
10 Jimoris Tigeress best bet on the card to not get a cheque tonight.

RACE 7

6 I C Your Shadow left out well  last time, made a move for the top and was travelling well. She let the favorite go, who backed down the tempo and this one got doubled up for just a few steps,  which is enough for her to  interfere and take off running.  Otherwise, she was very live and looked to take a shot at  the winner. I can forgive her for that and  go  back to her here,  even knowing she is an excuse pit of torn tickets type who is in serious futility territory. She does have high speed at times and if the price is right, I will take a shot with her here. Massey takes over and J. Mac ditches her, and Saftic got days again. If Massey can manage Whiteglance and get her across, he can handle this one.
3 Dorabella missed last week, and is the type that leaves, sits, and moves up the rail when others attempt and backpeddle. In a race like this, that gives her a shot to make the ticket, and a longshot chance at coming up the rail to win.
7 Jens Credit left out again last  time, had trouble clearing but got there,  then was looped twice  and seemed  okay with that as she wasn't grabby or racey in the 3 hole. She was run into on the last turn,  but she didn't seem  to be doing much anyway and hung  in  the lane,  almost losing 2nd.  She is likely to keep taking shares, but she has to show more to get my win ticket.
1 Docs Diva was handled carefully again getting away, settled in, then tipped 3 wide to the half to clear a first up hanger going backwards. She did make that lead, but was very steppy again in that last turn, and suspect coming to the wire. She is like her siblings,  in that she isn't pretty out there, but iron tough and tries hard. Another short price is likely here again, and I can't play her as is. When the long price comes, if she is still a maiden, I'd think about her.
8 Bettys Bay  in her return start at 3, she was floated out near the back, started up at the half, made nice progress, with a fast last quarter, but was running in the entire way and that type of thing will cost her if she is near the winner. I will pass on her this time and wait to see if that is a habit.
4 Zealous Seelster stayed mid pack last  time and was an okay 4th.  She is a bit player at this track, as she just doesn't finish like an A track horse. Solid Grand River type when they open with the banked turns if she doesn't get that win and have to face tougher. I will watch her for that a few months down the road. She has nice tactical speed that would be more valuable at a B track.
2 Bad At Redhot has been sold since her last race, as she doesn't look like an A track horse and Hudon doesn't keep those around. I don't see anything to suggest the new connections will get any more out of her. Very nice B track maiden if she shows up at London in March.
5 Inexplicable Ruby went around again last time but did little. I will  pass on her unless I see her show she has two solid moves. At this stage,  she has one medium one.
9 Orch Vicky was tricky to  steer last time and borderline dangerous. Holliday steered  her out into the middle of the track and then followed along once she was in safer waters.  Post 9 tonight, and she will have to do a lot more anyway. Pass for now.
10 Miss Mikela D post 10 and miles over her head. No thanks.

RACE 8

10 Flaherty was very impressive first off the shelf, and first for Budd. He zoomed out of there, let the favorite go, followed him nose to helmet right to the wire, but had no room and just went along for a solid 2nd.  Yes, post 10 is a challenge, but as maidens go, this is a soft bunch and I wouldn't be surprised if he blasts out of there this time and tries to take them all the way. If he does and the 1 wants to cut it and give him cover, even better. Top call, and the price should be there because of the post and the fondness for the 1. The way he travelled in that race, he looks to be a very good one and could do serious damage in the Grassroots this year.
5 Fancourt first time starting Big Jim colt out of the solid mare Catch A Wish, who was impressive in his qualifier and retains Fillion. My 2nd choice. But he is possible right out of the box.
6 Classic News went an even mile last time, following along and pacing in 56, which was much faster than he has seen yet to that point. I think he might be up to these in a couple of starts, and I will watch for his progression. He isn't impossible here if he steps up right away, the 10 gets a bad trip and the 1 coughs it up again.

8 Windsun Falls dropped out of the Count B, but didn't do much last time. Brethour has to be respected and I keep my eye on this guy to pop at some point at long odds. I like others tonight so I feel safe leaving him off. If he turns tonight, I will get beat. 

1 Mohegan Blue Chip  left hard last time, got the top, cut the entire mile and even got a breather in the 2nd quarter. None of that was enough when he was challenged by the winner, who passed him  easily, and the other two beside him either did or were about to. He has no fight whatsoever when he is headed. Another short or shorter price, I will pass.  

9 Silver Bullet was first up last time and backed away. Post 9 this time. Back of the bus and a shot to come late for 4th.
4 Charlie Badlands missed last week and was just okay before that. I like others better. Ticket maybe. Can't see him winning this.
7 Century Churchill moved 2nd over but lost his cover last time, kept at it and actually seemed to get by the leader, who was just toying with him and used him as a trap for the 2 hole rider. I can't touch this one as he appears. He probably will get it done when Georgian or Kawartha opens, and probably for a different trainer.
2 Ganacus Seelster left out last time, was forced to take a 2 hole, which became a 3 hole. He had every chance to go forward late and do better, but he didn't. Pass for me. He doesn't look like any kind of stock to this stage.
3 Fleetwould Mach is impossible to like off the program and replays. He looks to be 15 lengths out of this most of the way. He will have to justify the reason he keeps coming back.

RACE 9

2 Ok Gladiator was wiped out last week by a horse cutting to the rail with no room. He was claimed by Carmen out of that one and gets put in this spot, which isn't any tougher than those were, and he does very well with Mach Three's who just aren't doing enough with other trainers. This is the type he can turn right off the bat.
3 Regal Fame daylighted a field 3 weeks ago in a lifetime best and comes back here off the shelf. That would suggest he came up sick and needed a week off,  then a training mile to get him fit. He is a big player here, but I will call him 2nd in the upset.
5 Real Raye was claimed for 5 three back,  but has not gone forward. He has a reasonably fast mark last year at KD, and longshot potential in here. I went to others, but he is the type this outfit turns at some point.
4 Rock the Dream takes a serious drop in class here, but he has tried these before and come up short. He doesn't travel well and isn't the smartest cat in the alley either. All that being said, he does have speed and Joe C is a cagey guy who finds ways to win with this type of horse.
1 Jenkins Creek went his usual mile last time, which wasn't quite good enough to make the ticket. He is the bit player type and there are a couple in here at least who will probably keep him to that title.
6 Regally Magnified bagged 2 in a row at the B's with these types, but got the parking ticket from post 3 last time at London. He has upset potential, but has not proven he has the high speed the top 2 have shown already many times. I will pass here.
8 Jetster changed hands and came here looking to step up. He didn't. If he was ever going to nab 2nd money, it was last time. He didn't. No thanks from an 8 hole start.
7 Jet Black Cadillac shows me nothing to suggest I shouldn't toss him. So, I did.

RACE 10 

7 Holiday Romance blasted out from  the middle of the gate last time, getting to the quarter first in 26.4. She yielded to a leader who took her the rest of the way, but she was spent just before the tote board and passed by them all when the wire came. She is only 3 and that was the fastest she has even been. Now back in with claimers, she is a viable longshot if she can leave enough to get midpack and save that brush for the end. I could see her in a field with pacers that have Swiss Cheese holes all over them.
4 Twin B Breezeway left out last time, sat as expected,  found late room and got 2nd. A good result and the type of thing she can do off the right trip. I'm sure Fillion will try to get the same one again. She is possible as you can make a case for many of these,  and just as good a case why you should go to bed after the 9th and not play with these Flamboro rats disguised at WEG racehorses.
3 Bella Santanna was claimed for 5 last time as she wired them  at London. Ellis has a sharp claiming eye for these types,  and last year at 3 she won in 56 and change at Grand River. She has to be respected on the quick turn. Shot.
5 Stonebridge Suntan Improved a bit last time. She left out from the 10 hole and kept close tabs the entire way,  going a bit faster than she had been. It was in this class, and she seems to be finding a fit. I'm not ready to send her love notes just yet, but she is on my radar now. Watch for next time. She needs to show now she can work for it. The winner of this race probably goes 55 and change. Based on her record last year at Hanover, that is probably in her wheelhouse  if she is coming back to form. Tab for later.
10 Lady Santana took the long way around last time, and had to go it first over from the half at the leaders wheel. That left her soft for a couple of others. Post 10 here, she is up against it. I will pass this time.
6 Lucky Cocktail got second in this class the last time she was here, and was already double entered at Flamboro, where she drew the rail, left out and used turn advantage to hold the lead, went a soft half and then gunned the 3rd quarter and paced enough in the lane to hold off the pocket sitter. A  true old school Flamboro type win in the deep freeze of the winter. She comes back here and she certainly fits, but there are a few in here who can go with her.
1 Midnight Mayhem drops out of conditions to the bottom claimer looking to make some money. Although Hebert brings in a lot of longshots,  I can't play this one. She has to do more, even with these. Pass.
2 Blushing Promise turned her form last time and got 3rd in a blanket of 3 of them. She isn't always that good and I backed her that night but will go to others here.
8 Art U Coming was galloping well  off the gate last time and never got in  touch with the field.That is the second time  in 4 starts she has done that, and otherwise starts very slowly anyway.  She is a 6yo with a mark of 2:00.1 over KD at 5.  Its hard to see why they would even bring her here when she should be in a 5  claimer non winners at Flamboro.
9 Jinglewriter got away poorly and closed with the pack. Post 9 is an issue for one who doesn't start well.  I can't see her spotting these 15 or more and making all that up. Treen is a tricky guy in terms of form of his. I leave her off, but I am watching for a small sign that can turn into a big price in March.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 22, 2016

RACE 1

4 S J Moore made a solid 3 deep move at Northfield last time to draw away from those. Like many, he had trouble with the down the road style Wine Photo deployed last time and he couldn't get near him. None like that one in here. J. Mac does pretty good with Joe C., and I will take my chances on him as my top call.
2 Steppin Out jumped up last time after a solid, yet unexpected 2nd the time before. That was a suspect thing to try and it didn't work. Back in with her own kind, with a good post, and Jody back in the fold, if she can keep it together leaving, a big if, she has a shot to upset the apple cart. After her first try with Jody, she has kept it together, so maybe she is the type that needs a steady driver to know her holes.
1 Petty Hanover jumped it off last time and started poorly without much recovery the time before that. He gives you 312k reasons to like his chances on a bounce back with Randy if he shows up. These types are very variable and you can forgive a 2 week form drop off if the price is right this time, and he parades decently upon viewing. I'd need 9-2 minimum to take him on. That should be there.
3 Girl Drama is a good steady earner, wins her share, hits the ticket about 50% of the time and stays in where she belongs. She comes late and that means she wins when the leader is vulnerable in some way. I like others for the win, but she has to be respected. Her consistency and record draw her the shorter price in here, and I will try for more value. Pick 5 must to CYA.
 5 Warrawee Proton was really good 3 back for Johnson, looking like a player. That drew in Bowins who took him as he was only fair that time, and drew in Moreau the next time as he backed up and had to requalify, as he has now done. I'm not sold he is back on track, as he has long periods where he just doesn't get it done. He is the likely fave, and I will go against him here.
6 Blush and Crush doesn't win much on this circuit as it is,  but her last 5 lines are very bad and she is a rank outsider here for the win. I can't touch her.
7 Fortunes Friend gapped out Freddie last time, and while he seems to be a fairly solid B track claimer, he has never done much at this track to suggest he handles a few here who have proven they are that. Pass.
8 Excuse Me Please Fuller is a historically very low percentage trainer and he is 0fer already this year. He insists on taking the high tag and putting an already mediocre mid pack type in the hole with the outside. No thanks.

RACE 2

5 Twin B Wrangler started up too late last time and was only able to get 2nd.  It's doubtful he was going to beat the winner either way, but every week is another week with claimers. He can turn the tables on that one this time. My top call for a price. I'd think 4-1 is fair. Could even get more if the fave gets hammered.
2 Topcornerterror got the worst of it last time. He got away 4th, sitting on Woggy Rocks back thinking as a live wire for weeks he would pull first up and go after the leader. A nice helmet to follow, which this horse needs and likes. That resulted with a helmet that backed into him on the rail, which drew him out first up while he paced a 27.1 3rd quarter and left him empty for the drive. He kept coming for 4th. Just a bad luck trip. Otherwise, he is as good as any. He does have decent gate speed if you want to use it, and I suspect Fillion wants him up near the top this time. If he can figure out where to position relative to One Warrawee, he can be fresher for the drive this time and has a legit shot to win. That is what Fillion gets paid for, and why he is consistently a top driver. Big shot.
7 Idole Duharas couldn't have gotten a better trip last time if you mapped it out ahead of time. Left out, yielded to One Warrawee, who carried him as far as he needed to while Woggy Rocks backed into the only other legit players, leaving him an easy vacate of the pocket and a drawing away score. He isn't always as potent when he doesn't get that trip, although he is still viable. I see him as taking almost even money, if not just above that here. I will look elsewhere.
6 Uf Bettors Hanover paced a back half in 54.1 last time, but it did him no good as he was just 7th. His total lack of gate speed leaves him vulnerable unless he gets a speed battle to make that move potent. I don't see that here. Possible ticket add if he gets the right trip. I don't see him passing them all. Shorter field helps his cause, but it also helps others he has to beat.
4 One Warrawee is very much the type you have no choice but to send to the top or choke. He refuses to sit in the hole and follow willingly. As expected, Zeron wasn't likely to fight with him, and sent him down the road, resulting in a gasping finish again. He meets the same types again and Zeron is away, so Trevor takes over. I can't see him beating all of these off trying the same tactics again. Pass.
3 Rockabella seems to be a better fit at least one level down and a bit player with these as he is currently. Pass.

RACE 3

4 Arnie beat these two back, going first up and trotting steady, which is what he always does. He isn't flashy, gritty or classy, but he is steady. They were soft that night, and they are again. Just the types he can make a living with until he wins out of this class and has to start thinking claimer. Overall, he shows better and more consistent back half speed than many of these. Top call as he simply looks like the value price horse in with these.
2 Lady Jones draws better this time and trots enough to suggest she can be in the mix at a price. She is chancy, as her trainer doesn't win races at the A track, but these aren't gassed up claimers or class movers she is facing. She has price upside.
7 Piscean got hung the mile last time from the outside, and that was enough to spoil her chances. She has had a string of poor posts, but post 7 is slightly better with the chance that a few from the inside have no speed or will run. That can land her mid pack just before the turn and a chance to sit and stay, and take a shot then. As always with her,  watch her parade. If she is sore or off somewhere, she will show it. If she passes that test, she is in with a shot. She has more natural speed than the entire field and that counts against a few who don't and a few who aren't there yet.
6 Crown Classic went to the front last time, kept her act together, got a pedestrian middle half of 1:01.1 and simply stepped on the gas to beat an iffy bunch behind her for her first win in 25 plus tries. She wont get that type of trip here, and I will pass on her.
8 Trumpets made a big move in the 3rd quarter last time while the leader was NFG and there was one out parked and blocking the flow. She was long gone by the time the legit ones got near her, and yet she was already walking at the tote board and two steps from still being a maiden. She gets the outside here, a back of the bus or close to it start, and several in here have shown a lot more than her to this point. I think she could be a very nice Grassroots filly come May and there is no reason to gut her tonight and end up with 3rd or 4th money. Pass for me this time.
5 Striknglyimpresive was running like a T bred last time and was never in it. She doesn't win much anyway and she is hard to like in this spot. And I don't like her. Pass.
3 Stormont Jubilee would need to do a lot better with these to compete. Her last quarters alone indicate if she keeps up she will have trouble going forward in the stretch. I will watch once. Richardson has to be respected as a B track guy who knows what to bring and not bring to the A track. If she keeps up and takes her overall time and last quarter time down, I'd give her a longer look for next time.
1 Flashy Hanover is impossible to like on any variable you can think of. Non driving driver. Doesn't win. No speed. No finish. Isn't doing well with B track conditioned claimers. Poor form. 99-1 shot at least.

RACE 4

8 Domedomedome the race office throws this one a bone and adds a condition to allow her to drop back in with these. I expect Jackie Mo to take advantage of that and try to find live cover then storm home for the minor upset. Top call. She is just in the right class spot to match her form and current level of ability.
5 Stormont Kate tried to leave last time but others went a bit more and she had to duck. She didn't like that and was getting jammed up at times. However, JJ did the right thing and kept her in and she finished strong with good late trot. She has a very willing leader this time who can go enough that she can follow and not get backed into. Big shot, but I will list her 2nd. A close 2nd call.
3 Wine Photo is exactly the type of trotter that can be very effective for a short amount of time in the Johnson outfit. This guy can leave a ton, trots pretty steady and can go a long way trying to bottom out fields. He just needs that "little extra" to make him last longer. He has met his trainer soulmate there.  However, he will likely have a pretty tough one on his back if he tries to pull that off here. I will list him 3rd on the first time off the claim overbet angle and that he can get picked up very late. In any event, he has a big shot and should be included on your pick 4 tickets. The rise up is also something that will have to be seen. When he drives off down the backside, many of these wont gap like the claimers he tries that with.
6 J Cs Jake was razor sharp in the winter when he behaved, and then drew the claim when he appeared to put the form and consistency together. However, he was very flat the night he was claimed, but appeared revived last time for Joe C., who had him before, although he was over his head. Back down with these, he has a big longshot chance to pull an upset here. I list him 4th, but I'd add him at least in a minor way on the pick 4.
4 Ole Jack Magic loses Saftic and overall, he looks to be over his head at this level. He was good for a bit and took advantage of that, but now has tailed off chasing tougher foes who have his number. He has also missed 3 weeks now. Lets see him go lower with at least a solid finish and then assess whether he is still sharp enough to bag a few near the bottom.
1 Ramas Last Son drops down here, but his form is not good, nor is his overall winning attitude, and while he drops, he was quite a bit over his head there, so he isn't dropping but now racing where he fits...but still looks in deep.  Pass. He will need to go lower to attract my interest.
2 Neils Golden Girl makes a break every now and then, but otherwise, she is steady when classified where she can be tactical. This isn't a great spot for her in that others will beat her to the top and she would have to rough it to get it done. I will pass on her this time.
7 Nowucit Nowudont reverted back to his breaking habit last time, and was ever so close to doing that the first off the claim. He can stay trotting and beat me if he does that this time. Not sure he even wins if he stays at it. Pass for me.

RACE 5

3 Intended Style wired up a similar bunch last week off the claim and comes right back. Johnson jacks his tag up a shade in an attempt to keep him, and doesn't pay any post position price for that risk. When he gets good, he is really good. He also gets along great with Randy, and seems to only have one in here who can leave and come at him. I will call him as the winner of those two, and assuming that one takes some action and this guy stays at around 8-5 or higher, my best bet of the night.
4 Velocity Headlight  drew off on a similar bunch last time, and basically meets the same types, plus my top choice, who is better than all of those when he is good. Its a horse race for sure. I call this guy 2nd.
5 Amble Over Hanover  has been off a month off terrible lines and drops looking for something he can keep up with. He isn't a good off the shelf type. He seems to hit his peak around week 3, then be good for a week or two more. I will watch him this time to see if he is playable the next time. He isn't very sound, so you have to really watch him to see what he brings. On his good days, when in the right class, he has a history of blowing up the tote board. I will keep an eye on him. Pass in this spot.
6 Washington Hanover went directly backwards last time and has yet to win a race at this track. He will turn his form eventually, but is probably better off at KD or Flamboro.
1 Just Henry was taken again last time, and he was hung the mile then. These are even tougher at the top end of the short field. Pass for me. I think he has been raced and used hard lately and will start to tail off anyway.
2 Mach of Ballykeel shot the rail last time and hung in for 4th. That is about what he brings these days and a better post wont help him much be in a better position. He would have to rough it and he doesn't show that he can do that and beat these. Pass.
7 Cheyenne Ford Van Meer made a nice score on this guy, taking him for 6500, winning for 8 and losing him for 12. He went back after him for 15, and now he is stuck with a horse racing above where he can win and losing form. Hard to see where he is a play until maybe he fits the nw bottom class with a good post. That isn't this spot.

RACE 6

2 Hillsonator gets a better post this time and a new driver, as Zeron is away. Randy is a noted money driver and I think he might be willing to make Mario take a seat or carry him a way to release him if he wants the front again. Due to all that, and that he will be the bigger price of the two, I will go to him.
5 Demand an Answer blasted out last time and only went evenly from there, which was plenty enough for control and an easy score. The key question in this race is what if Fillion tries that again, gets in the 2 hole behind Hillsonator and Musical Rhythm is left out there? If so, can this one come back out and pass them both. There is a longshot chance he can. I will call him 2nd, but he has a shot if all that plays out, or one of the two faves runs and he has an easy pocket trip on the back on the one left standing.
9 Musical Rhythm blasted out of there last time, took no chances and bossed the 2nd best horse around. He is capable of doing that again, but the big money is on the table here and he will have to work for it. Post 9 is just enough reason to suggest he gets stung. He will take some beating, but is beatable.
3 All B Over gapped out and was soundly out trotted by the two logical big faves in here last time. There is nothing to suggest he isn't 4th or 5th here again. He would need a lot of battling to have a shot. Even then, he has to pass the one left standing. I don't see that.
1 Five Below seems to be getting his act together, but he hits two bearcats and a few others who are as good as him. He has bottom of the ticket possibilities. Cant see him near the top 2.
7 Muscles All Over is really up against it when both fields come together. It was reasonable to think he might take down half a field of contenders, not all of them at once.
6 Amityville Lindy is a pretty nice trotter to go in 55 and a bit with the way he travels. One day he might find a way to smooth out. For now, that handicap leads me to think he can't go any more and he would need to if he is to win this race.
4 Fleet Bumblebee starts slow and goes about 57. That wont cut it here. Pass.
8 Grand Premiere did little to earn his way into the final. Big longshot and not likely on the ticket.
10 Angels Kid  ran leaving last time and is a bit player at best from this post.

RACE 7

2 Thepaninsulahotel didn't have it last week after he was put in a spot to do well. He came his own back half in 56, and only one of these did slightly better, and that one has not raced well for a while now. At this stage, he can only bring it now and then. But when he does, like 2 back, he is very dangerous. He is also a lot better near the front and then following if he can get that trip. I think that is possible in this spot. He will need some luck and some more determination, but he has been an up and down performer for years now.  We see those types win this class all winter. Tonight could be his night at the price.
4 Shock N Rock spit the bit last time like the no good cheating rat he used to be a couple of years ago. I will go back to him this time with a price attached on the rebound. If he could get 2nd over, he is probably where he needs to be to apply the one burst he has to use.
5 Hit and Giggle A was better last time, but still not good enough against a bunch who were all hanging. He isn't impossible but he hasn't done enough lately to think he wins this without so much going right that you can't count on that.
7 Blissfull Years comes right back to the class he won last time, with not as good a post. He will be the fave or second choice, and his kind rarely doubles up. He barely got it done then. I like others better.
1 Prince Clyde was full value for his last victory, in this class,  but that was two months ago, he has been off 3 weeks and doesn't always show up and put out, even on the drop. There are better options here than were the case the night he won. I will go to others.
6 Ufdragons Rocket went to London last time looking for easier competition and didn't find it. He was beat by at least 2 who would be 1-9 in this race. He is in no mans land. He is probably a 15 claimer. This is a better spot for him while he fits it, but his lack of winning desire leads me to pick others.
3 Tomitta Bayama came up big 2 back and swooped up for a bombs away victory. He very rarely shows that determination, and is more a mid pack type. There are many others to like in this one, and I will go elsewhere.

RACE 8

4 Legionsofangels seems to go even, but is gradually taking down her time. 59 might win this race, and that seems like its in her ballpark 3rd off the shelf for a young trotter learning the game as she goes.
2 Dead Red Hitter kept it together last time. In a race where you really have to dig to find viable ones, I will look the other way on his very spotty form and look at his record last year and show of speed in the 3rd quarter in the qualifier. Its the stab of stabs. I'd be looking for at least 20-1 to use him. At least. I said at least.
6 Northern Bruiser has some breeding behind him, and was aimed at top horses last year, with mixed but not horrid results. I can make a case that his qualifier sets him up for a fair try. He is in the mix. Dagfin seems to take it easy on them first out of the box. For that reason, I list him 3rd. If he comes to play, he could be long gone on this bunch.
3 Miami Magic the logical fave here who was beat by two who have both graduated since. Logical faves have a way of not proving logical in reality 2 minutes after the gate speeds away when it comes to this class. I only play those if they are very dominant and show high promise. Not the case here. Pass and play for the longshot. I'd take the risk and leave her off the pick 4. I'd rather have another longshot because you need many in here to increase your chances of getting the one that might be the one.
9 J N Ryder can leave a ton and is fairly steady but cannot finish no matter how you trip him. His times probably get him bet a bit in here. I can't back him with his record of finding ways to lose.
5 Brookie Baby continues to gap fields with little show of any recovery. She goes back to Smith and that is not a

good sign.
10 Sassy Dreamer TOSS
8 Lilysgonecheating TOSS

1 Honorable Mission TOSS

RACE 9

7 Charlie Is a Joker bided his time in the Preferred as the good soldier waiting for his time at bat. That comes tonight. He meets a bunch he can handle here, most of which don't have his current form or class. He would have to not show up to get beat. He isn't above going it first over when he meets these types and grinding them down. Top call. Not sure what to expect price wise.
3 Wild and Crazy Guy had to go first up last time, and that isn't his trip. Sitting and making a move late worked well two back, and that is a trip he can win off of. Call for 2nd with a shot to beat my top choice to the punch if he gets held up somehow.
1 Hldontghttoyurdrms  went a long way last time off a soft trip with every chance. The winner outclassed him and otherwise it was a big improvement on the one before that. He, however, doesn't seem to have it week to week and I wont rely on him. I will place him 3rd and go to two others who produce more often when expected.
2 Muscle Matters  moves up here and its a tough rise. I'm not sure he is up to the best of this bunch at this stage. He needs to finish better and go faster. I haven't seen that from him yet.
6 Hubby Number One moves up on the improve, but I am not sold he is one of these. He will have to show me. He has a tendency to not put strong efforts together and gap in the lane. These will give him more than he wants to deal with.
4 Our Mojo  is in very tough with these types who have always been better than him. He is in class mover territory now and the move down is what I will wait for.
5 Burnin Money spit the bit last time and his form has been poor for a month. He usually shows you a hint of turnaround before he goes on a good run. I will wait for that, possibly on a drop in class to make him braver.

RACE 10

3 The Optimist left out, kept it together last time and was rushing up the rail. He has to be seen parading, but if he passes that test, I will go to him. He doesn't hold form long, but when he has it, he is right there with these.
1 Alexie Mattosie was sent on a suicide mission last time by Saftic. He wont make that mistake again and he can rebound.
8 Live and Learn saved ground up the rail last time, but ran into a wall, steered right around that but lost momentum and a couple of lengths then closed with the pack. He is just close enough to pop if he does a bit better and finds a late seam.
6 Prince Sharka hung down the lane last time when he had the tiring first over leader in his sights. Nevertheless, he meets similar this time less that winner. Maybe he builds off that and outstaggers them. Maybe.
2 Forever Just  draws better for sure. But he had the 5 hole with these types and gave it up late that night too. I'm not sold its only been the post positions. He was good for a while last spring but once he worked his way up to the top level, even trying to keep up with those stung him. He will turn at some stage, but the shorter price is not the night I will take a chance on him. He can beat me tonight if he is ready to turn his form around.
4 Hail the Taxi  probably has a shot in a race like this where there are many like him.  But still, I cant tab him. He just doesn't win races.

5 Czar Seelster can not be played off those lines. He has to show something to suggest he hasn't lost a lot of talent and form.

7 Zingers Laugh on his best day, at the top of his form, he is only one of many with these. I will  pass on him until he heads back to the B tracks.
9 Lisvinnie post hurts him even if he was viable, which he doesn't look like he is.
10 Oldfriendskentucky  non factor with these from this post.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 20, 2016

RACE 1

5 Single White Sock gets to drop off his latest line with much tougher than these. He was a fast closing 2nd the time before that with these types, and he had a bad post then,  and the time before that as well. When he gets away a shade better his late move is very potent at this level. Top call this time.
2 Mitt Jagger looks the best on paper here. He was a pretty talented colt at 2, then showed promise at 3, but got sick and was shut down for the season after only 4 starts.  He was qualified look a colt ready to  go and being aimed at something a lot more  important that this race. As well, his  stablemate was scratched sick last night, and that is a concern. For those reasons,  and the likely short price, I will call him 2nd. He bears watching. No doubt about that.
1 Stature Seelster picks up a driver here, and that certainly has to be factored in. He still appears very dangerous at times and also equally fast and talented. Being off 3 weeks is also an issue. He is the real  dark horse in this tilt. No matter what, he needs to improve his final quarters to take  on the best here. He has a longshot chance.
6 Sabine Pass wired the level just below this. He seems to take a few to improve at each level,  which is reasonable enough. I will give him one with these to see how he stacks up. He wouldn't shock me though. He appears to be the type who matures late and suddenly shows up as a 5yo who is a high end horse. Not that he is going to be Nickel Bag, but his progression is mirroring that horse at this stage.
3 Smalltown Terror switched from bottom of the barrel claimer to condition last time and was a solid 2nd. You can't take that away from him.  These are a bit tougher. I will call him off the ticket. Gilmour's seem to have a very short form life and he is close to the downside of that.
7 Imkeepnthisguy is all over the map class wise,  and lands in a spot he fits but maybe is a cut below the top 3 or 4. His slow starts from the outside are a big issue for him,  and he is likely in for that type of trip again. I will wait to see if he can show me more,  or if he is heading back to a conditioned claimer.
4 Bieber Hanover got the parking ticket last time and he didn't have a great trip the time before that. He appears  to need everything  to go his way for him to perform. When it does, he does produce. I will pass on him. If he gets the trip and beats me, so be it. 
8 Distinctiv Rusty was claimed by Isaac for 10k on January 7th,  but has not performed in 3 starts and now comes back with Lasix first time. He stopped last time like he bled. He is likely to be better this time, but these still look pretty tough for him overall. I will watch to see if he is improved, and ready to take on claimers if he goes there next.

RACE 2

3 Rafa is super talented, but also his own worst enemy. He wants to go a million miles an hour and not save something for the end. That is a family trait he inherits and hopefully the more he races he might figure it out. He comes to his speed early in his career, but I can't say the same for his maturity. At this point, he is a lot faster than smarter. In spite of that, I'm putting him on top again. He still only got picked off by one late last time. A slight improvement will be enough to handle them all. Nothing less than 6-5 to make him viable.
4 Mach Code couldn't go with the winner or the one that tripped out and got up in time. I will call him to last a shade longer this time, now that he has 3 under his belt. I don't think he is as talented as my top choice, but he is much smarter and versatile, and if that one undermines his own chances again, he could be sitting on his back and the one that pounces this time for a price.
8 Half a Billion has one crazy burst that has to be timed right. If it isn't, he deflates significantly before the wire. Jamieson has always been the type of driver that learns a horse and gets better on them as he figures out where the sweet spot is. That could be the case here. Longshot chance if he fishes out Cajon Lightning, follows him and can tip him at the right spot to arrive in time.
7 Cajon Lightning turned his form around last time, by sitting a trip and pouncing on a leader who shot himself in the head by going more than he needed and trying to beat off one who wasn't going by him either way. He is obviously in with a fair shot, but he has been hard raced for a long time. Being not very sound anyway, I will go against him tripping out like last time.
1 Legion of Boom strikes me as at least one cut below most of these, although back in conditions, spotted right with the right type of trip, he will win his share. Pass for me with these for now.
6 Sports Lightning looks hopelessly over his head in this spot. A Grassroots mid pack player racing tough Gold winner types. Total pass on the win front. Can't see him near the ticket.
2 Shippen Out zero shot with these.

RACE 3

4 Wizard of Osney Was one who did take down Wine Photo first off the claim for Moreau from the 8 hole in a sharp 55 and change score. She looks the best of this bunch if she is right back to that effort. Great claim at this stage.
5 Giona missed her last race sick, and will be back blasting out as McLean almost always does. I could see her lasting for a good piece if she can let one go and follow to the tote board. She isn't impossible but this race is a bit deeper than she is used to.
9 Flexie is gradually coming around for Giles, who is very good with these types. Post hurts here, but she can get a slice again if the flow works to her favor. She is one to keep tabs on.
6 Herbies Wildflower comes right back to this class after bombing out last time as a very bad short priced fave. She was on the chooch when that was not a good trip that night, especially at that point of the card. Either way, I've seen her race at Miami Valley and she was chewed up even then. She is a tough and fast mare, but I think she is tired. Sucker money if she takes action like that again.
7 Freddie wired a horrific bunch last time and takes the big class rise. He has always had talent, but keeping form is a big issue for him. If somehow he has clicked in, he isn't impossible. I'm not sold. If he had taken down a Wine Photo or one like that, I would have cut him more slack. There wasn't one in his race last time who is a legit WEG horse. I will watch this time. He has to show me he can do better with better.
3 Jayport All Muscle rises back up to the level he has had a lot of trouble with before. He is not a frequent winner as it is. Not a good spot to play him here. Pass.
1 Fashion Goddess made one quick move to the top last time and opened up enough to coast home. She is good for one of those a year, and now she has it. She moves up and faces much tougher. Pass.
2 See R Chin Win had a one race stay and the Dagfin Inn, and now goes back to Markle. She was gapping Freddie. Freddie. Yes, Freddie. Now, in a head scratching move, she goes bottom claimer to tough conditioned class off that race. In terms of passes, this is the overpass of passes.
8 Gronk needs to get his act together before I can go near him. One day he probably will. I haven't seen it yet.

RACE 4

3 Mach Pride is hard used as a rule to get out on the lead, or even better, in the pocket, and then come back on. If you have to push him midrace, like A Mac did last time to keep up to a dueling set of leaders, he wont finish. So, he needs a trip and could get it here. He is one of many that are possible for a price. He is consistent about how he races and he wins his share.
2 Sunny Beach Day won at the bottom by pouncing mid race on a leader going the wrong way and opened up plenty to draw off and win easy. He makes a significant two class jump here, but he is tactical, razor sharp and could be the price to play in here. He has tackled these before and held his own. He just seems a lot sounder these days, which helps his cause.
8 Grin for Money took a lifetime record first time Moreau, then started to regress and has continued to slide. He takes the big class drop here, but I don't think its enough. He has reverted back to what he always was with Kopas. He can pick up these types and slightly better when the trip favors him and he has a good night. I'm not sold this is that spot.
4 Twomickeytrip is a fast, but unsound horse, who looks in deep with this field, which isn't soft. One more drop down and if he holds form and race horse soundness, I might go to him then.
7 Avatartist continues to regress, as his soundness falls apart. He has a long history of big talent, big gaps in his racing and steering issues that result from wear and tear. If he takes tote money here, he is bad value. I tried him 3rd off the shelf when he was sharp and still reasonably sound enough to take a shot. He got picked up that night, and now, he is on the downside of the hill. I would think after this next layoff he comes back in the claimers. Very much reminds me of Crafty Master, although a better bred and higher quality animal.
5 Big City Jewel  made a break last time and McNair ditches his fathers horse for a mid pack type with seemingly a small, but better shot. I can't go to him based on all of that. He is a closer and that is in his favor here. But, he rarely goes by them all.
6 Mckinney is a one trick pony, who pulls hard, wont sit and follow willingly, but stops enough that others dont always want to let him go because he wont be easy to retake. That puts him in a tough spot as a racing proposition. He does drop here, but he wont have an easy time getting the front or going easy fractions. He likely sets it up for something else.
1 Hes a Sensation got beat a nose a step below, but this level is tough for him if they aren't very soft, which they aren't this time. I would like him back down where he just raced. I will wait for that spot if it comes.
9 Hunch Man not with these from this post. Pass.
10 The Big Year shows solid and consistent 52 speed and if he had drawn better, I'd give him a shot. He is hard to like with the hole he is likely in at the start. Pass and wait for another time.

RACE 5

5 Mach Magic put it together last time and almost took them all the way. She gets Fillion here as McNair goes to Much Adoo. Normally that would red flag me, but I think that is a mistake and I'd stick with this one. Top call. Any kind of trip that saves something for the end makes this one a decent priced winner.
6 Twin B Sweetheart was scratched sick last time, but was a good 2nd in Leg 1. She is in the mix, but she has trouble finishing if she is pushed early. She has a shot, as do many here.
8 Double Olives just didn't have enough last time and the weather probably didn't help. She seems to show up when the big money is on the line, as it is tonight.
10 Much Adoo 10 hole is death for this type. Can't use her from out here. She would need a lot to go right for her to get the top prize.
1 Ainsleynoelle tripped out last time for one of her every now and then wins. I like too many others here to go to her and see her double up in a final like this.
7 Pinky Tuscadero didn't wait last time, and took an earlier run at the leaders. She still hung at the end. Every trip seems to result in that type of finish, and I will abandon her now. She could do with a trainer change. She is not performing to the promise she showed last year.
9 Amazing Control tries very hard and is likeable with some rest and the right trip. She could prove me wrong here, but I don't think she has enough to overcome this post. Pass and go to others.
2 Show Some Leg is almost always a bit player type as she just doesn't do enough on the end of a mile to win the race. There is a big price win in her down the road this spring, but I will wait for another day to seek that out.
3 Tilikum was coming along nicely and shows some talent at times. She seems to be regressing a bit now and as this is the best one St. Pierre and Staley have, I expect him to take an aggressive shot and bust out of there looking for a close up trip. I wouldn't toss her, but she is more likely to effect others chances than enhance her own.
4 Windsun Chanel is a complete outsider longshot in with these. I don't know if I play her in with nw2 types. She has to find a level. This doesn't look anything like one that suits her.

RACE 6

6 Entranced was a solid 2nd to a back class daylight winner who woke up that night. Otherwise, he has been beaten by some pretty nice trotters and hung in for good shares at this level. He is a viable option with a bit of a better price than my 3rd choice in all likelihood..
3 Justalittlefaster is one of those who turns his form on a dime from some bad outings. He has a good turn of speed but at times needs handling to keep him going. Those types have bad months and then click back in. I can use him for 2nd on the off chance he shows up this time. His current form is poor. No doubt.
8 Twiggys Twick doesn't appear to meet the condition earnings requirement, yet is in to go here and comes in off two very good lines. If she can perform back to those she is the best of this bunch currently. I will list her 3rd because the price value wont be there.
2 Zukav has matured a bit this year and become easier to rate, and thus drive with an eye to making the most of his one late brush off a decent gate leave. This level is still something that gives him problems, but there aren't any terribly solid ones in here to think he is outclassed by a Bags For All or Stormont Kate here.
4 Summit City Nate has the speed to be a player on the days he doesn't blow up. Being a Justice Hall, he is always a possibility to do that. I'd toss him on the pick 4 to CMA if there was a spot left.
1 Santo Domingo picks up Fillion and the rail, but he is hopelessly win shy, even in the bottom condition. I can't go to him at this level unless he somehow channels his inner Mack Lobell and reverses his career trend.
7 True Day Dream was 2nd with these last time from the same post she gets here, but she also doesn't travel well on the track week to week. She has a lot of talent, but she will have to be seen in the post parade. Either way, I will go elsewhere for my top 3.
5 Mego Moss is not getting it done at this level and is iffy and the level below. When he drops some lines and gets in with those, or hits the 12 claimer, I will take a better look to see if he is formful enough to rely on. He isn't always.
9 Power Move draws poorly, starts slowly as a rule and is a bit player even off pretty good trips.  Another who will be more viable on a drop in class and a better post.
10 Stormont Wizard starts very slowly as a rule and draws the 10 hole here. That is no recipe to get your picture taken. He takes a big drop here, but I will wait to see if he goes well here, draws better next time and goes one class lower. He is up against it here.


RACE 7

3 Track Master D was taken back by Jody last time, which is not his style as a rule.  He paced a great back half but it didn't do him much good. Maybe Carmen did more tinkering. He is likely to be a big price here. I will put him in with a shot due to all of those things. I would expect him to fire out of there this time.
7 Mohawk Warrior is 3 weeks out of the box, but his form is good and he has enough talent to compete at this level before he eventually works his way up to the Preferred and might have some trouble with those.
1 Wazzup Wazzup moves up two levels but he has been here before. He has to do slightly better in terms of his current form. I will call him 3rd but he wouldn't shock me. His short price wont be there this time and that makes him more attractive.
6 Velocity Driven came late last time and paced his own back half in 54.2, which is more in line with what he can do when he puts out. He did have a wall to face when he got near the top,  and that is an issue he faces as a closer for he most part. I will put him up for 4th but I'd use him in the pick 4. If he gets a clear lane, he could just blow by them all. 
4 Machal Jordan drops back down but doesn't hook a soft group. I will go elsewhere.
8 Crocadile Canyon seems like a perfect fit for a 30-35 claiming handicap, but that isn't being written or filled currently. He will be very reliant on falling into a trip that favors him against others who get used too hard to get him on the ticket with this type of horse.
2 Cool Rock is a one trick pony who isn't as potent when the top end of the field keep going like these do. Pass for me until he goes back down the ladder a bit.
9 Dalton Bromac N blew up the tote board last time and is back in with similar types, but maybe a deeper and more talented bunch. Post 9 presents a challenge then, and I will watch him this time. Others look more win worthy when all the variables are considered.
10 Ideal Jet  deep waters and a bad post this time. Pass.

RACE 8

1 Bringhome Theblue has this class opened up for him on the earnings condition to let him in the back door. If you think the 2 needs a start, and the 4 needs at least one to get up to race speed,  then he stacks up pretty tough with the rest. He takes a slight drop off a very solid finish. Top call and the price should be right with Shades of Bay on the scene. If the price is in the 7-2 range,  he is my best bet of the night.
5 Tighten Up is certainly sharp and stepped up last time when asked to challenge these. Moreau has found what makes him go and he has a big shot tonight at a price if the ones who come in with bad dates or layoffs are overbet. Price option.
2 Shades of Bay has been a bearcat for about the last 6 weeks he raced. Now off a month, and with probably bigger dances ahead, he isn't likely to be raced hard or aggressively here. Can he still take them on ability alone?
Yup. Will I play him with that angle? Nope. Pass.
8 Mac Raider has missed 3 weeks and has been a bit player anyway at this level since Fuller claimed him. Fuller is very good at gradually improving whatever a horse has, as we saw with Mappos Moenhay and Mileys Big World, among many he has turned over the years. I will list him 4th, but I'm still waiting for the turn. This one always showed flashes of decent ability and the key is there if Fuller can find it.
9 Senior Market is razor sharp for Titus, who has the key to him. However, post 9 in with this bunch is no picnic. He has no shot at the 2 hole here, and I don't like him to do any better than have a shot at 3rd if he catches the right flow and a few weaken late.
4 Sportsmanship I would think he needs at least one start to go with others in here who are racing steady and have pretty good form. Pass and watch. The transition to the aged types is not an easy one for a mid range type like this.
6 House of Terror moves up and faces tougher. You cant knock his form or his speed, but Jody was in a tough spot as he drives for both the trainers he had to choose from here. He chose the other. That's enough for me. I will pass here on this guy and watch to see if he stacks up. Jury is out.
7 P L Heavenly beat these in his first for Brealey and went about the same mile last time but that was only good enough for 3rd. He loses Phil to the obvious drive he wants to keep, and I think he is more of a bit player than contender at this level week in, week out. These aren't soft enough for me to put him on the ticket.
3 Julerica still doesn't leave or travel well and has a lot less ability to outpace these in the lane than he did one level lower. I can't touch him until he either improves his gait or drops enough to offset that flaw.

RACE 9

4 Nickle Bag As many have mentioned, Trevor gets the most out of him, he is very tough to go against right now, and he is the one to beat. So, I will list him on top,  as I think maybe one more week and he is beatable. I'm not sold he doesn't go down this week, so if I was to play a pick 4, I wouldn't key him like he is a best bet type,  and would add my next two underneath him evenly or close to it.
3 The Rev draws better this time and that helps his cause. He needs any edge he can get with this bunch, and not having to work so hard to get the lead and keep it is energy he can use at the end. If he got a live two hole ride, he has a shot.
1 Nirvana Seelster has very good early speed, and can be determined and gritty on the end of the mile when he is sound and sharp. He appears to be both at this time  and he is another I put underneath Nickle Bag with a solid shot if he gets soft this time.
5 Rise Up Now  did not perform towards the end of January, as many of Moreau's didn't and got 3 weeks to regroup. I am sure he has a win in him against these--eventually, but for tonight, I can only slot him 4th.
2 Prescotts Hope is still rock solid in terms of being a legit high end type, but maybe has tailed off from a lot of big and tough miles. He cant go  to the front and boss these around like he did in the fall for a while. I like others better at this stage and will look to engage him again when he gets to drop, if that is the case.
6 Erle Dale N moved up the ladder and  lucked into two wins when the trip really worked out, and he certainly is very good stock. But possibly not really as good as many of these most nights. Pass.

RACE 10

6 Stimulus Spending suffered a bad trip last time. He can turn the tables on that. Its debatable if he has enough class to beat all of these. I will give him the benefit of the doubt this time in a race where its hard to pick one out.
1 Grits N Gravy tripped out and beat these last time. It wont be that easy this time, but this isn't the deepest field. If he can fish out cover and follow it, he has a big shot. 
5 Better Art  went a solid trip on the front end last time and comes right back with the expectation he will try that again. No reason to think he doesn't have a shot to pull that off. He is one of a few that could hit the line together or close to it.
10 Er Quinn likes the top and that penchant did him in last time. Post 10 means it would be foolish to even try that strategy and I will have to see how he stacks up with this bunch. If he can close for 4th or 5th, he could be viable next time from a better starting slot.
8 Lets Wait and See has been off a month and draws bad. I will  pass and see if he shows up this time and adds the fitness angle to that.
9 Deetzy  is too pace dependant to think he can dig out of the hole the 9 hole digs him in.
7 Antar Phil has not performed for a while and goes to Carmen from Puddy. I want to see him turn this one. I don't think its going to be that easy. He has a history of dropping the bit.
3 Steves Legacy draws better here, which helps his cause. But he could end up first up, and I can't like him off that trip. If he pylon skims and happens to luck into room,  then he is reasonable.  I can't count on that. Pass for me.
4 Vegilante Hanover is jacked up in class for new connections. He barely outpaced one who came back to run off the gate and be no factor. No shot from  what  I can see with these.
2 Casimir Overdrive is a bit player at best with these.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 19, 2016

RACE 1

5 Jordies Hope was on the front last week, which was not the place to be when the card was looked at in retrospect. Its the only way she races well, so the bias was dead against her. Cross that line out, and she is certainly a play here, and probably much bigger odds due to that suspect line. I'd give her a shot for the price.
2 Katies Beach was a good 2nd best last time to a mare who tripped out. That is 2 good results in her last three starts at very big odds. The odds will come down here, but still be in the 8-1 or so range. I can take a shot with her in that range. Its a wide open dash and she is one of a few who could get it done.
8 Kiss Me or Not takes the drop, and needs to. These are more her people, but unlike her last time dropping for the pop, this bunch comes up deeper and with the post she has, not as likely to go all the way with these. I will go elsewhere. If she races okay and comes right back with these and draws middle of the car or inside it, I'd play her then.
4 Dazzle N Delight has stepped it up the last few weeks, and last week she raced right onto a bias that favored the trip she got. Full credit to her though. She made the most of it. She does move up and I think she is still iffy to take them all if the last quarter isn't as slow as last time. Bit player with a shot to prove me wrong if she can keep it going.
3 Shez a Gold Mine beat nw2 types last time but now faces older, seasoned mares who can go a lot more than she can currently. I have to see her compete with those once to see if she is up to that. My impression is that she isn't yet, but will develop into that in a month or two. Pass for tonight.
4 Dazzle N Delight has stepped it up the last few weeks, and last week she raced right onto a bias that favored the trip she got. Full credit to her though. She made the most of it. She does move up and I think she is still iffy to take them all if the last quarter isn't as slow as last time. Bit player with a shot to prove me wrong if she can keep it going.
10 Rock Her World has been off many months now, draws the 10 hole off so so qualifiers and had serious steering issues before even when she was winning. I will watch to see if Moreau can fix the issues Alagna never did. This isn't a good spot for her even if he has, but a good spot will arrive and she will be shorter priced then. I want to know what she offers when that comes.
9 Dilly Dali post 9 at this level really hurts one like this who likes the front and needs a breather. Pass.
7 P L Hurricane got the win at the bottom, but those were very soft, even by that classes standards.  She makes a 3 class jump back up, and I wouldn't even consider her with this bunch. If she drops back down two more classes, and races okay here, she is playable then with a decent post.
1 True Reflection seems to need a perfect trip at the very bottom class to even have a shot at winning,  which she still doesn't do much. I can't list her to win. She is 4 weeks out now with a scratch sick. That's enough for me.  Toss.
6 J High has two wins at the bottom on the page, and a trip around finish last time, which was 5 weeks ago. She would be hard to take tonight back in at the bottom.  No shot whatsoever.


 RACE 26 Greystone Ladylike has very good form, if you consider she was chasing mares she can't handle and takes that form to ones she can. This is no cakewalk for her, but even at favorite odds, she is the play. However, if she was to fall into the 3-5 category, I'd have to pass. Even money is still poor value, but possibly fair. She just has a class and form edge over these and post 6 is the perfect spot at this track to leave hard, which is likely what she is going to do here. Top call.
4 Mischieviousgirls comes in off two bad posts and she didn't do much pacing last week. I will hunch play her for 2nd hoping the better post gets her a closer start and she can fish out one of the faves to cover her up and tow her into a favorable top of the stretch position to strike. She has to be better. For sure.
1 Regally Ready turned it around last time to finish a solid 2nd, racing with the bias of late closers that night. She is certainly in the mix with a shot. I like a couple of others better.
2 Back Yard Baby moves up but is very good right now. These are in her wheelhouse, but being off 3 weeks is a concern. I will list her 4th only because of the slight move up and the stale date. In a game of close finishes, that could be enough for her to finish close but no cigar.
7 Dazzling Rockette closed late for a decent share last time. That is what she likes to do, and it works out well for her owners. Winning at this level is another thing. She doesn't do much of that. One level down, she is a lot more viable.
5 Total Lee is one of those who finds multiple ways to lose with an excuse that makes you keep going back to her. She will win one eventually, and unless its at big odds,  I wont have her. Like tonight. But the big odds wont be there. She can beat me.
3 Barockey won 3 levels lower off a soft trip when she split horses late. Her last 3 with these have resulted in being non factors when they hit the tote board. No thanks.
8 Miss Coco Luck didnt last well last time and she appears over her head at this level. She will likely drop back down soon and could be a play then. She is a very trip and class dependent mare. Both of those variables go against her here.

RACE 3

6 Gotti  Is my top play here. With the gate speed he shows, he should get the 2 hole ride behind the chalk, and he was closing at him last week. He appears to need that one to fail on some level, but I see that as possible enough. He could go off 4th fave and possibly in the 10-1 range. I think that is good playable value.
8 War N Munn the obvious heavy fave. He daylighted them first out for Carmen, made a mistake last time but Drury deftly snatched him up and got him back on the front, although tiring and bearing out late, still opening up. He looks like he goes off 2-5 or less. I will take that action. He isn't rock solid yet in my view and the finals of these local stakes have a way of beating these types.
9 St Lads Charger his last line plus post 9 are enough for me to pass on him here. However, if the fave bombs, and the next two logical board plays perform as I expect, he isn't out of the question to pick up 2nd or 3rd.
1 Three Truths is one that Moreau can't get sorted out. If he isn't running in horribly, he is off stride, or just hanging when he has a shot. His bag of excuses has become too large for me.
5 Big Bang Boom goes back to Virdy as Carmen can't get him to finish. As the Big Jim's race, that is a very common trait, even in the ones who have very high speed for a piece, like this one does. They can really pace until the air comes out of the tires mid lane...or sooner. I will call him  to miss the ticket altogether. He is another who could burn a lot of fave money at the B's in the Grassroots this year.
3 The Loan Ranger doesn't do enough for me to go to him. He will be interesting to watch when the Grassroots start up. He has some go, but also lots of issues which means he can be a play both ways at those B tracks. He could be a bomb longshot one week, and a bad fave the next. For now, he is overmatched and his odds will reflect that.
7 New Standard doesn't look up to this bunch at this stage. He is about 3 months ahead of himself and should have stuck to maidens.
2 Podge I wont even bother. If he was mine, I wouldn't even race him in this spot.  It's outright foolish.
4 Spaniard missed last week. Still a maiden facing proven winners. Pass.

RACE 4

1 St Lads Penny Lane lands in a good spot to take these down. They are the types she handles when class meets trip meets form. Top to bottom these are much softer than what she faced last time, and she was pretty close to the ones that beat her then. She needs to get away 5th or 6th, not 8th or 9th. Saftic knows that and will try to gas her out a shade to hold position. I doubt he will be in a hole giving mood if that means he ends up 3rd over instead of 2nd over. She is my top call.
6 Onyourmarknatava is an extremely slow starter who digs herself a huge hole that isn't easy to overcome. I will toss her on for 2nd money with a longshot chance in this group where many can be figured to not perform. She needs a hot pace and very live flow to get her in position. She has bombed away before.
2 Mappos Moenhay  has been very good in two starts for Moreau, and he keeps her at the level she can excel. She needs to do a shade better on the end of the mile at this level than she has been doing. For that reason, I list her 3rd. She wouldn't shock me, but with Moreau and Fillion engaged, the price wont be right. Pick 4 must.
4 Wildcat Magic is a very low percentage winner who would be a lot more dangerous one level down. She gets enough decent slices that she can't go there yet. She just doesn't do enough to attract me to list her on the ticket. I'd leave her off the pick 4 and take my chances.
3 Whistys Paradise was dog lame parading last time, looked like she was in big trouble on the last turn, but once she hits the straightaway,  she sucks it up and tries hard.  She is one tough bird, but she isn't meeting mediocre claiming types here. Her grit aren't enough to take these, and whatever bugs her has got to be adding up. Toughness will only get you so far. I will play elsewhere.
5 Machet Rocket got the win at the bottom. She hung around last time. I'm not sold she can beat all of these even off another soft trip like last time.  She lacks a second winning move at this level at this stage of her career. Pass.
7 Dianna Santanna  off a long time, and she generally needs a few to get going. Watching.
8 Mary Celeste still not the right spot for this mare. A drop back down might lead me to her.
9 Neversaidiwassweet is in very deep with this mixed bunch who have a huge class edge and she draws bad.
10 Shellyssilvermoon total toss on form, past performance and post.

RACE 5

6 Mattjestic Tempo made an unusual break last week and took herself out of it. I can give her a pass on that. Otherwise, she has been in the mix but short of the win since she came off the shelf. If she had produced last week, she would be the clear 3-1 second choice in here. Because she bombed out and has not won period this year, she presents likely 6-1 or higher value. I will take that risk on. I can't find anything other than the fave to like, so I will rest on her to get me there.
8 Cracklin Rosie skipped last week because of the cold weather,  and while she is certainly the logical top dog in here, she isn't bulletproof. I will call her 2nd and play another on reversal of form and the big price that is coming this week on that one.
4 Bad As Leader was solid last week for the win, aided by favorable fractions. Another trip up near the front gives her a shot. I like 2 others better, but she shows flashes of ability on their level.
1 Im in Luv made a bold move at the leader last time but flattened out late. However she paced a big back half on her own off the shelf, and if she can build off that,  she could make the ticket.
2 Windsun Glory simply didn't race well last week. She was put in the perfect spot, began to gap, then closed that gap and was pulled out before she got trapped in, but showed no desire to even try and pass that one. The pace went against her getting by that one, but she didn't even put up a fight. She had that trait in her qualifier and seems to need a buried trip anyway. She makes a great racetrack appearance and has some speed, but her class is in question. I will continue to watch her, but I don't like her at all in this spot. Currently, I am off her bandwagon.
3 Party in Rome doesnt look up to at least the top half of this field. I will wait to see how she stacks up with Grassroots fillies when she gets there.
5 Sandy De Vie got the maiden win. But didn't look great getting to that point and has not kept up with these. Toss. I'm not sure she isn't in for a very long stay at nw2.
7 Arizona Seelster had nothing last week and generally just doesn't put out. Total toss for me.

RACE 6

5 Vics Royal Lady was done in by the post last time. No problem this time. Straight to the front, yield and retake if that is necessary, and then see ya later. Best bet on the program if she comes with 7-5 or higher odds. She is in top form and has held it for a while now.
3 Aspen California after seeing this one back up near the front a few back and hang first up last time, its easy to see why A Mac saves her for the one big move. Again, as I said last week, that leaves her 2nd a lot more than winning. I will call her for that, again.
6 Rocky De Vie comes back for a 3rd try with Holland. He is a tricky one. Both the horse, who seems spotty but occasionally talented, and Holland, who will race a horse multiple times with no result and jam them right back in and they pop at huge odds like Think Again and others have. Its tough to find viable ones in here. I will list him 3rd with a shot to take it all down on that angle only.
10 Federal draws poorly and that really hurts him. I dont see enough talent to overcome that deficit against my top 2. I will wait another day on this one.
2 Tymal Wizard is a crazy inconsistent type who can bomb away at long odds and has a few times. But otherwise, he reverts right back to being a poor performer. I will pass on him here after his last which was poor in a poor field.
4 I Jasmin showed up and hung in for 2nd last time. She is another who is a real in and outer. I like to play her at very long odds and last weeks effort shortens her up this week. Pass, but she isn't impossible. There is some talent there.
1 Luau Hanover still doesn't travel well, and even back on the drop to this class, she had trouble with them too. I just don't like her and unless he sorts out that issue, she is a no play for me. Trotters are variable. Maybe he will find the issue.  I will watch for that. Haven't seen it yet.
7 Candida is a 6yo mare with 2 lifetime wins and no cheque in this class in the last 3, yet has made 100k lifetime. Nuff said.
8 Eldorado of Gold keeps taking chalk money for a reason I can't figure. Pass even as the odds float up this time. He is just a non performer from what I can see.
9 Townline Momma came here and won a couple with good recent form, then starting making consistent breaks. She daylighted a weak bunch in the qualifier but still  stopped coming home. Pass from this post. Lets see her get around and not be held together with glue by Massey's hands. 

RACE 7

9 Rock N Roll Xample gets a 2nd crack at these and  I will call  her for the upset. They are somewhat the same as the last bunch, but one rung down and just a shade softer top to bottom. She blasted out last time and clearly quickly. Then she let one go, who let another go and she was sitting 5th at the half with the first up mare right beside her going nowhere, blocking the flow, and then she was going to follow the one she let go, but ducked back in and  lost momentum. She had some pace in the lane but was picked up by others who have come back to win or race very well. I would think that her speed is saved for a covered flow trip this time and if so, that could land her in the top spot. I'd want close to the ML, which is 8-1, but would except a shade less.
3 Lights Go Out drops down from where she won last, and she fired out of there last time and stayed for 3rd after a second move. When she is good, she is as good as any of these and her improved versatility has made her easier to play this year. I think the 8 is too much for her, but if not, she is likely the one.
5 Rubis Prescott isn't out of the question here, as she is as good as any of these on her best day,  which hasn't been lately but she has showed signs she might be gradually coming around. Her leaving ability is a plus in a race where those on the front look legit to keep going a long way and allow her to pop out late with some degree of room. I could see her and certainly would have to use her in the pick 4. Dropping back down one level is a big plus for a mare who is on the fringes like her.
7 Oceanview Bindi moves up here off a good effort from a bad post. I will play others, but she isn't a toss by any means. I doubt she has enough to beat them all.
1 Wildcat Beauty jumps up two classes when she is just barely contending with much less.This field is too deep to think she makes the ticket. Another day in a better spot...maybe.
6 A Plus sat in last time, popped out midlane and took a much weaker bunch than she meets here. I am still not on her fan club list. She will have to show me something I don't see.
2 Docs Hollywood is settling in as a class mover who will do okay at the bottom and possibly the next rung up. This class is two up from that and she meets a few who are dropping with decent form. Pass for now.
8 Your My Secret is gravely over her head here but needs one more line off her card and she can move down a bit. I will wait for that and watch her this time to see how she travels. She isn't the smoothest pacer and doesn't do it willingly without some encouragement. She has to be 100% right and classified to be viable. Not in this spot.

 RACE 8

2 Pretty Boy was claimed by Johnson off noted trotting guru Walker, and at least he stayed flat last time. He has a record of 56.2 over this track, and if Johnson can make him go, and he can keep him trotting, that is enough angle to hang my hat on in a race where it is very difficult to like anything. Its a dart throwing stab in the dark type of play.
3 Silverhill Volo daylighted a trotter who was a decent stakes horse at 2, came right out and won his first and was a good 2nd next time out. That was the first effort for Carmen, as he didn't perform for Moreau. Perhaps Carmen has whatever this one needs. I'm willing to take that shot in a race where you have to take risks on spotty performers. He has some ability and nobody turns a bad performer like Carmen can consistently these days. Shot if he trots.
5 Adversity I will list for 3rd on the attrition angle in this tilt. He gets Pers expertise and Moreau's skill set to hopefully turn him around like he did briefly before when they tried that angle. They have to try something. He also gets Fillion, and that upgrade alone has to be worth 3 or 4 lengths. Another with a shot. I'd need all 3 top choices and hope I get one of them. It could be any of them, but I list them in order of what I perceive as value. I am using the highest percentage trainers all trying to turn low percentage performers. I only need one to get it right this time.
1 Shoot the Thrill was bought by Aaron with the idea Cody could gas him up with the high octane milkshake and steal another purse. That plan is dead now and he gets to try it with Gallucci, who wont be deploying that shady behavior, so, its anyone's guess how this one will perform. Gallucci is more than competent, but this horse has obvious issues that made him only an 8k purchase. He won 1 of 23 last year, and otherwise has not done much than run and get on the list. His decent qualifier, in which you can get away with a lot of things you can't in a race for money, will draw tote action and inflate others. I will go to them. Pass for me.
4 Hetties Commander simply cannot leave a step with these types and has limited powers of recovery. He is just too hard to justify even when you are looking to do that in a race like this. I have to go elsewhere.
9 Thankyoukessel goes 2nd off the shelf from post 9 off a weak effort for one who doesn't win much and was pegged at short odds last time. He isn't the soundest either. I have to pass. He might come around, but I need to see something positive.
6 Jetpedia I watch Pompano a bit here and there, and I happened to catch this one every time he raced there.  And he was awful, much like he was all last year at WEG. Unless I see some change in that, I wouldn't play him in a straight 8 claimer. He just has not panned out from the ability he showed at 2, as some don't. Oh, and he is 6 weeks out of the box. If WEG had any morals, they would insist he qualifies first. If he comes out and wins in 54 off those lines, it will look bad with no form to suggest that reversal.
8 Hidden Identity has seemed to lose a few steps over the last year, and he wasn't that gritty or classy at that point anyway. Post 8 with Pat, he is hunting for a soft trip and a small cheque.
10 Gliding Boy post 10 off those lines makes it impossible to touch this one, even in a race where I am looking to cut a lot of slack to anything that can  be justifiable.
7 Muscle Girl  in terms of no shot types, she is 1-9 to not win this race. And she would be 1-999 if you could give out those odds.

 RACE 9

1 Our Hot Majorette passed the class test last time and kept up to the best this track has. Now she has to work for it a bit and not stay glued to the pylons. There are plenty of leavers in here, so she is going to have to rough it. I will play her on top with the idea that the 2 takes a lot of play, the 3 also enough that I get 5-1 on her. That is fair enough for me to go to her. She will have to do more but I think she is up to it.
2 Ms Mac N Cheese is clearly the boss of this bunch as it shows up this week, sans a few that give her a hard time for the big prize. That doesn't mean she can't go down. I will call her 2nd in the upset and go with one who has one under her belt and didn't get beat much last time by her. She is the one to beat. Clearly. But beatable.
3 Waasmula goes back up the ladder, brimming with confidence on a big score, fit, and in good form. When she is good, she is very very good. And she is raced like she is the best. I have never had any luck with her no matter when I try. I will list her 3rd, but I can't deny she looks very dangerous in this spot tonight.
6 Kayla Grace moves up while very sharp, the best she has ever been from what I can see. This is a big acid test for her. I will call her bit player this time. She isn't impossible though.
4 Witch Dali  has missed 3 weeks now and faces a much tougher bunch than I think she can handle even if she was on regular rotation. I don't like her in this spot for both of those reasons.
5 Aniston Seelster still doesn't show me that she is not a few months from being up to the speed and grit needed to handle these types. I will  watch for signs she is closer to that level. Not yet in my view.
7 Doctor Terror is in very deep with her current form and the class types she meets here.  I can't see her being close.

RACE 10

I liked Beyonces Rockin in this spot, but she is out. What is left, I can't sort nor do I want to even try. Its just wishful thinking there is form to play with here. So, I will give you my top 4 based on strict data that spits out picks for me.

9 Aintsheasweetie top call. Hard to like, but data tells me to like her.
5 Call It Courage data tells me the drop will be enough for her to get the trip and come back on. Shot.
2 Peppermint Patti a longshot with a driver who can make rats like this look good like he did last night with an old classy veteran on hard times.

Any one of those 3 would be great if they came in for the last leg of the pick 4.