Tuesday, June 13, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 13, 2017


1 Expose Yourself

​id ​
​some winning in the winter at Pompano, where Henry spends the winter. She came back home with aspirations to tackle the better ones. She is definitely a live wire parading and going to the gate, so anything that can help her when she gets rocky might help. The first time she made the gate and was away well, but she seemed to be in way too tough, and chasing the likes of Magic Presto and some of the lesser ones behind her were too much for her. She blew up before she got started both times after that, and went back to school with the trotting hopples, which kept her together enough to blast out a 57.3 mile at Grand River. That can't be discounted, but, the rail is very bad again at Mohawk, it claimed Hill Yes last night, and there have been no winners the last two cards. I find her hard to latch onto with all the variables in play.
2 Late Shift
​ad post 10 last time, blasted out to an easy lead as there were many jumpers who weren't in the road, but in spite of reasonable fractions from there, packed it in when it mattered. She did the same thing from the 6 hole the race before that, although the back half and overall time were much faster. It could be that she is a 58 trotter at this stage and that will only get her what it does. I'd have to think that isn't good enough to take down this entire bunch. She is an 0 for 12 maiden facing a few winners here. If her 5-2 ML top choice holds, I'd think she is very bad value.
3 Hab Faith
is pretty much in the same boat as Late Shift. She has enough gate speed to get up into contention, but when they start asking her for more, she wilts. ​
​Like many, her good manners, solid gait and early speed served her well at 2, but its not enough to carry her at 3, when the fields are deeper and faster as a rule. I can't see her on her current performance.​

4 Sweet Kimmy
​look to have been a project horse for Burgess since he broke her.​
​  She managed to pull it together and surfaced finally on Friday at Grand River, where she was a distant 2nd to a very high end prospect who toyed with and outclassed the field. She was a good 2nd to him. She is a longshot for sure, but appears to have some upside as she learns her craft. I like that she at least makes the gate and gets away clean most times. Last time she stayed at it the entire way, and under pressure first up. Outside of an equipment break in a qualifier, she has kept it together the entire way this season. She now needs to do that and go faster. 2:01 over Grand River is in range with most of these if she makes the 3 second gain you can from that oval to this one. Blair turns her over to Saftic, which is another positive sign. Shot.

5 Muscle Lane
raced at 2, but she wasn't much and clearly wasn't ready to compete. She has come back ready to play, trying to go down the road in her first start at Kawartha, and only being picked off on the wire. She is possible, but she will have to leave faster to get control with a few that are both inside and outside of her. I want to see her once with this level of competition. She could slide onto the ticket if enough of them blow up, she behaves and drops another second or two. Kawartha is a very fast track, so that might not happen like it can with the ones coming from Grand River or other half mile tracks.

6 Northern Oath
​ raced decently at 2, finishing 3rd to Cameron Hill, and drawing two 10 holes prior to that, and a solid 4th in the start before that, all starts where she was just below or at 2 minutes. ​
​She qualified good upon return, in 58 at Georgian, then made a break leaving last time, but recovered. I'd have to think they don't pay 350 bucks to race in this spot unless its something they can rectify, when she could go right back into a maiden and bag 3k without paying up to try and get it. Good upset potential, Steve Byron brings in a lot of longshots and is a very fine driver with young stock.

7 Literally
won a Grassroots last year when she first came out, then was 2nd and 3rd in two Golds, before tailing off and being shut down. She qualified a 2nd time, over a month ago, and then came up sick for her first start. That is hard to go on, and her consistent weak last quarters make her tough to go to. Lets see her return to the promise she showed early last year. Being a Justice Hall, she is likely to be very erratic. Good longshot prospect some time this summer when the variables come together.

8 Angies Dish
​hows nothing to suggest she is viable in this spot, or any other spot for that matter. I have to see something positive from her. Zeron's stock has mostly been awful this late spring and early summer. Pass for now.​

9 Twin B Venus
​draws poorly, is yet to show the speed of most of these, and I would think is hoping to pick up a decent cheque. A return to Grand River and that type of class seems the better spot. ​
​ She still fits the class she got 2nd in last time. She has enough allowance to take 4th or 5th here, get her speed down a bit, and return there for a few scores. ​

10 Hudsons Ya Ya
​draws poorly and her two starts this season have not been impressive. I can't see how she wins this. ​


1 Gisele Treelane
​ ​
​ust have showed high ability all along, as she really looked hopeless in all her preps. She finally held it together, then ​
​found the perfect soft field composed of no talents and runners to simply one move late and mow them all down with a 57 flat back half. She blew up again last time, but she is a young trotter learning. She could be either tonight, but the ability looks to be there. I'd like to see her parade before I make any play on her, but if you are playing the pick 5, I'd consider her a must use. Post 1 could be tricky for her, but if she gets away clean and doesn't spot them 15 to the half, she is in play.

2 Powerful Mission
​ shows very high speed at times, and can beat a tough enough bunch when she keeps it together. Her breeding suggests she wont very often, but on any given night, she is one or the other. ​
​She was rolling wide last time when she blew up, and I'd think Phil will try to avoid that trip and stay in as long as possible, aiming to split horses or swing out when they are going straight. Shot, but iffy as the page and her lines suggest.

3 Moni Justice
​ seems to be like most of the young ones Dagfin brings out....she has ability, he doesn't let much of it show early as he keeps them within themselves and gradually ups the ante as they show they could possibly be ready for that demand. Off a qualifier and a decent race at Georgian where she trotted in 2 minutes and took 2nd, I could see her as a decent add. There are enough iffy ones in here to suggest they could just self destruct while she takes her time down to 57, and that might be enough. Tough call when you don't have a lot to go on except the trainers history. Her slow starts put her in a hole, and these are likely to be even faster to the half. That is a negative first time out with this sort of company.

4 Magic Maddy
​ ​
​looks like the bit player type for now. I suppose eventually she could mature and come into herself, like many do. At this stage, not winning on the Kawartha soft spot, and only getting 3rd to a very weak bunch last week don't inspire me to think she can do much more, and many of these do have that upside.

5 You Cant Afford Me
​ was a solid 2nd in nw3 last time, and that coupled with her overall time, likely makes her the favorite here. I'm not sold that she is worthy of that, based on 1 good race and being 2nd to a mare who went winless for 2 years, then didn't have much last night either. I will go elsewhere and let her beat me. She is not proven as a winner against stakes types. Her high level of inbreeding also suggest consistency can be an issue. She hasn't proved yet that isn't in play.

6 Hilarious Honey
has been all over the racing map, Georgian, Philadelphia, The Big M, Pocono, and not got the job done yet. However, this type, in this type of class, over time, in my view, can be very dangerous. Nobody gets an accurate read on them, and they move them around because they feel the horse is worthy of all that effort. Philly and Pocono race every week, many times a week. You could just leave her there and race maidens for free. Why ship here again and pay up to race? I'm suspicious that she might bring more to the table than they have showed us. Yes, she is a maiden, and she has had 10 tries to change that status. But she also has 6 OTB finishes, and some money made. The other note of interest is that Philly is well known to those that watch it as being a trap along the rail to start from for a young trotter, or any trotter, or even some pacers. The track is very loose and the turns are uneven ground. That plays into her current form, as does a tune up at Georgian last time where she wasn't bad, although a bad overbet favorite. Neither of those factors are her fault.

7 Holiday Style
​ shows nothing to suggest she can go with maidens, let alone stakes horses and some who are winners. I can't see her.

8 Lady Justice
​ made 52k last year, but never won a race. Her first two this year have been terrible, and she draws bad again. Another I cannot see at this stage, but Henry might turn her around during the summer. I will watch for tonight.

9 Gaelic Lass
​ has a bad post, a low percentage driver, and doesn't look fit enough or fast enough to compete yet. Lets see what she can do. I don't like her tonight, that is obvious from my previous comment. She gets 1st time trotting hopples, so there is room for improvement as she goes along.

10 Angora Seelster
​ has some speed, and some upside, but as for tonight, she has a non driving trainer and the 10 hole, and she is erratic on her own. Can't play her from what I see, but she will be a player at some stage this season.

1 Try to Resist
​ is a maiden leaving from the rail who has not showed the speed or ability of many of these. Cant see her getting money.

2 Perfect Delight
​ trotted a solid mile in her first effort of the year, 2nd of her career. I can see her going forward and she would be a decent longshot if her ML holds, which I suspect it wont.

3 Tymal Declan
​ has not shown anything to suggest she belongs with this group, or at this track. She will have to fool me. She appears to be a nice B track horse if she sticks to that and stays in conditions.

4 Da Miracle
​rotted a decent yet unspectacular mile last time, shaving her time down considerably in her first start of the year. She is another who could step up, in a race where there are many unknowns.

5 Bustingattheseams
​is somewhat erratic, yet capable enough when she keeps it together. Post 5 might favor her getting out near the top, where she appears to like it. Randy is not opposed to doing that and then sitting the entire mile looking for a late opening. That could be the right formula here. She shows bursts of speed at different points in different miles. If she gets the right trip, that burst could be valuable tonight. Shot.

6 Anikadabra
​  made a good buck at 2, winning the Grassroots final and many other legs, but has not come back sharp. She could take heavy win money tonight, and based on her inclination to go backwards so far, and run last time, I will take my shot against her.

7 Majestic Kat
can be a slow starter, and that is a bit of a problem, but generally she is progressing and going forward as she races on. She is a viable option if the price is right. I'd want 4-1 to try her, but either way, I'd use her in the picks.

8 Jilona
​ seems to trot right around 57, which might be good enough here. Post will hurt her, potentially, as she has started slow from the outside and not been able to make up the difference. That being the case, I could see Trevor blasting and taking his shot, and my opinion is that if that were to occur, it will set it up for something late, or Randy if he gets on her back and finds a way out at the right time. A lot of ifs and maybe's, but its an angle in a race like this.

9 Ticket to Seattle
​ ​
​eat ​
​ a very weak bunch 3 weeks ago, draws badly tonight, and loses her driver to her stablemate. That is enough for me to pass on her.

10 Kendras Coco
​ ​
​s an 0 for 10 maiden from the 10 hole coming off a break. That makes her hard to like on multiple levels.