Friday, June 19, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 19, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 on Franney Love Dat in the 9th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Southwind Champagne in the 5th
Best Place Bet:$10  on Twin B Honour  in the 7th
Best Show Bet: $10 on Franney Love Dat in the 9th

Worst Win Bet:  $10 on Tessa Seelster in the 7th
Race 1  
Race 2  
Race 3
Race 4 
Race 5  
Race 6  
Race 7  
Race 8  
Race 9
 Race 10  

MS---minor shot
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watchIng for a future play

Race 1

Overall synopsis: Whenever you play this class, replays are critical. Little things make a big difference on a nightly and weekly basis with these types. The reason most of them get to this stage is that they are bad actors, lame, sore, used up, or had bad posts,trips or luck. Sorting all that out can get you price. Trying to bet them straight off the program is a fools game in my view. In many races, you don't need the replays. The line speaks for itself. In these, its everything. Which is why you see big prices all the time.

Probable Favorite: CHIVAREE HANOVER

BROADWAY PRINCE takes a big dive here, but needs to. He wasn't keeping up in that class. Jody ditches him here, which isn't great, but he seems to be hooking up with Obrian, so that is more the reason than which horse he thinks is the liver of the two. CC might be a better fit anyway for this one, who certainly needs a trip. I will go to him for a price, of which I demand 8-1 to play him.  

HIDDEN IDENTITY  Is one I might rate higher, as he is pretty sharp and spotted right. However, Pat Hudon is ofer and ofer as a trainer and driver. With the likely tote play, I can't rate him on top and went for something with less current form, but a better price and driver, and some might argue, in terms of trotters, a better trainer. 

NSFEISTY LOVE  got it done at Sarnia, and picked up 3rd with these by sitting out of it and outlasting the balance. More of the same here if he is even good enough to keep doing that. Not for the win. 

 Play Against:

MSCAL CHIPS BROTHER is good when he is good, bad when he is bad, erratic always and handled with care by Roger to at least try and give him a shot in the lane. I will play against these types almost always, unless they are boxcars, in which case I play them under the right circumstances. Tonight, I take this ones action.  

MSCHIVAREE HANOVER has a world of talent,  but she is her own worst enemy. The stakes entry last time was very ambitious to say the least, and that will likely make her even more overbet than she would be otherwise. 

The rest:

MSTORNADO TIM---drew bad last time and raced okay enough to say he still has a shot here. He picks up Jody, a plus for sure, and under the right set of trip variables for him, and against others, he has a minor shot at a price. I prefer others, barely, so I list him in this section.

MSCREAMPUFF MACDADDY---might be dangerous if he could ever get a trip. First Up Jack doesn't seem able or care to try and get him one. He was good for a while, but trips like that are likely wearing him down. Longshot chance, but pass for me tonight.

NSWERE ROLLING---gets the better post this time, but while he left good the time before, he did little with it when it counts. He is very low percentage and I can't back him, even in with these soft ones.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: Carmen Auciello is pretty good with tie up mares, and horses and geldings too. But moreso Mares. Larjon Laura strikes me more as a bleeder than tie up horse, so, I'm not certain he gets instant results here. But, she will bet like he will. So, I start there with the idea I get value if I'm right about that and look for viable prospects to make the angle profitable. 

Probable Favorite: LARJON LAURA

HAT TRICK HONEY  has one start in her now off the shelf, and takes a drop. She should handle these, and with Larjon Laura likely taking money, I go to her as the only other viable option I see, other than my 2nd choice, who is probably the best of the bunch, but not reliable. Top call and solid bet for a decent price. I am looking for 3-1 here, but would accept slightly less.

CALL IT COURAGE  has the ability, when right, to handle these and better easily. Her trainer doesn't always put her on the track in proper race shape and rigging to compete. Her last was very good, and she comes back hopefully good to go. I could have rated her on top, but I went with the better driver and horse that is more consistent about performing when she finds a level. It could go either way in my view.

CARDS THAT COUNT  3 for 46 makes her hard to like for the win, and mostly she does much better at the B tracks,  although she goes sour there also. I call her for 3rd in a very soft bunch after my top 2 plays in my opinion. She is iffy for that also. 

 Play Against:

LARJON LAURA---already has lasix, so Carmen's favorite angle to bump them up wont work here. Perriera has been around a long time anyway, so, he knows how to treat a bleeder. I think there wont be a big improvement here and the chalk players get burned. 

The rest:

KENDAL GUCCI---made a break on the turn last time, a problem she has had before. She needs very careful steering, and CC has managed that with her before to win at boxcars. While these aren't tough, they aren't straight claimers either and she is slightly in too tough in my estimation. Her lack of gate speed really compromises her and she is very reliant on a fast early pace and very good flow. Pass.

PATHTODOVER---just doesn't do enough in my view to beat the top 2 or 3 in here. I go elsewhere. A straight 8 claimer might get me interested in her for the win next time. 

NSJ HIGH---mediocre mare. Horrific trainer. Very bad form. The end.

NSMOMENT TO CHERISH---would appear better off in a 6 claimer if you asked me. And no cinch in that either.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Unless she gets a serious challenger run at her, I think Little Red Chev goes coast to coast and gets her own way.

Probable Favorite: LITTLE RED CHEV

LITTLE RED CHEV  draws well and drops. She has serious gate speed and she can carry it. She will take some beating, and with Jody not winning for a few cards, and not much this entire month, I see him being very hungry and having a pretty good night. She could be winner 2 or 3 for him by this point.

HIE BENNY  goes 2nd start lasix, and this looks like a better spot to try and take advantage of it. He isn't chasing Muscle Baby Doll or Meadow Seelster in this one, or anything like them. He has a fair bit of talent when he is on his game, and Randy is likely to bury him and try to find an opening on the turn. If he does, and that hole opens up, he could upset the apple cart. Longshot chance. 

MICHAELS TURN  has hit the wall in this class and trots for shares but wont pass the better ones. Until he shows me more, that is all I can expect from him. 

 Play Against:

THERESADEMONINME I think he is overplayed tonight, and until he shows me he can go with contenders here at this level, I will be happy to take his action. 

MSCASH FOR GOLD  is a very good closer who got up last time. These are tougher, but he has the ability to step up. I just don't think he gets all the way there tonight, but he will be coming. He needs them to go fast fractions to make him more potent near the wire. I don't see that this time. Only one has high speed and the rest aren't likely to challenge that. The bias is against him tonight. 

The rest:

PLATOON SEELSTER---draws better and has raced okay, but I havent' liked what I've seen from him so far this year. Federal Flex types just don't come back good at 3, much like he really fell off the cliff as well. I avoid this one until I think I can get a big price and I still like the spot. Pass. 

NSR CHOOCHOO CHARLIE---had no go at all last time, a trend with him lately. He is about as hot and cold as they come, like many from his sire. I pass again. 

NSTAROT---has been terrible for quite a while. Until I see something more, can't touch him. 

NSMUSICAL SPELL---continues to sit way back and then rush up for a cheque. More of the same. At some point, he is going to do more. I don't play him tonight, but I am mindful that it will come. 

Race 4

Overall synopsis: I see this race as kind of chalky, and the faves as legit, but I played the one I think has the most risk but also the talent to compete and will bring the price if she gets there first. In my view, all 3 are equal and when I see those types of races, I play price.

Probable Favorite: MOMAS GOT A GUN

DANCIN CAROLL  has a world of talent if she can drive straight and stay on gait. Those are two big issues for her, and many of her sires foals. I will play her on the chance she is good Caroll tonight and the price I get justifies the big risk I take. Top call, but she is suspect. 

MOMAS GOT A GUN  the full sister to Limelight Beach, she was overambitiously aimed at the best last time and got spanked, as you would expect. Her fast lines on the page tell you that she is getting played heavily tonight, and while I wont take her action, I am doing that by playing the winner I am. She has a shot, but will be overbet in my view. Pick 4 must use, but certainly no single in my opinion. 

DELIGHTFUL HILL  has stepped it up big time in the last month. I like her to be right there, but another with a short price tonight who forces me to go elsewhere. Pretty much the same comment as the one above, but she has been put in proper spots. Tonight, she also takes heavy win money. I wouldn't take 8-5 on her, and that is likely what you get. At 3-1, I'd play her. Not likely to get that. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

MSUNIQUE ROCK N ROLL---has gradually improved, but meets a few beyond her tax bracket at this point. Possible on the ticket, can't see her taking all 3 of my top choices down. Bit player.

NSMAPPOS MOENHAY---doesn't appear to have enough speed or class for many of these. Pass.

NSRIDE AWAY SHARK---has one big burst of speed, like many from her sire, and you have to use it just right or her rush expires badly before the wire. That makes it tough to play her against at least 3 in here who can go a long way period. Pass, but I'm watching for a spot where she can be more tactical at a price.  Tonight, price will be there, but trip and chance isn't.

NSONYOURMARKNATAVA---flopped last time and now the soft spot is gone. Pass. She needs to find a claimer and be more consistent.

NSP L HURRICANE---miles over her head with these. Pass.

NSBET ON HILL---has done nothing with these from the outside the last two and I expect more of the same here. She has found this class very tough unless she gets a very easy trip. Perhaps if she draws well next time we will see where she stands.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: The two likely faves both have enough suspect aspects to them----one a bad post, the other moving up and a penchant to run, that I play for the longer shot who has the talent but needs a shorter trip around the track.

Probable Favorite: BOLI

SOUTHWIND CHAMPANE  made a big move at the lead last time, and was very live. She tends to try that, and tonight, lets hope she does and sits for a bit. She needs to leave a bit for the end. If she does, she is possibly the winner at the big price. 

BOLI  is probably tons the best here if he behaves. I will play against him for the price. He has a history of blowing up. That tends to resurface when they are still young and learning. He certainly can and should win this. Sometimes, they just don't. 

WIZARD OF OSNEY  Bit player, but can sneak into the exactor if everything goes right. 

 Play Against:

HOMEN DRY ran in his first start, a problem he has,  and did very little last time, which he did not impress me. I have seen enough. Until I see something to entice me, he is on the rat list. 

MSGAME ON HANOVER  post 10 for this type is the equalizer. There aren't many who can overcome it, and I don't see her as one who can in this spot. She did it against maidens, but these are far tougher. If she tries to wire them, or make a big sweeping move, she likely misses the ticket. Zeron isn't likely to try either. Another day, a better post, and she is viable. 

The rest:

MSLEXUS ROCKY---has improved for Sinclair, and comes back a seemingly different horse. He has a shot here against a somewhat suspect group. I will watch, but if I play the pick 4, he is on that ticket. Trevor might be the right type of driver for this guy. The jury is out.

NSDOMITIAN HALL---Nickle bred in way over his head with these. Can't see it.

NSMUSCLE GIRL---likes the front and can get it, but to carry it, she need the KD friends she hangs out with. Here, when the real trotting begins to happen, she doesn't get to sit at their lunch table.

NSME THE BOSS---has never been good enough over this track. I don't see this as a better spot to make that happen. Until I see otherwise, very bit player. 

MSMY KID SISTER---one of these days, this one is going to win in a spot like this. It could be tonight, but I like a few others much better than her that I pass. Dangerous. 

Race 6

Overall synopsis: You really need to study these types, to figure out trip, and what each driver is likely to do. Trip is everything with these, and if they don't get what they need, they have little to no shot. Even when they do, they are suspect to go all the way. They are the toughest races to figure, but also the type where you beat the favorites even though they aren't horrible. That is how I approached this one.

Probable Favorite:

RUB N TUG  very low percentage type who get lucky every now and then. This is exactly the type of race and scenario that sees her win. One of a few, and I would use them all in the pick 4.

MSWINDSUN KENDA  is the type that steps up and bites a bunch like this every now and then. I would need price, and I'd say that is at least 9-2, and more likely the ML 8-1. But, to me, she is as good as any of these, and has won off a proper trip when she get it. In the mix for sure. No confidence in her, or any of the others. 

MSEAT ME UP  at one time she was a top notch mare and would crush this bunch. But, that was then. Now, she is getting older and only shows up with her A game every now and then. If she does tonight, she has a minor shot. 

 Play Against:

SHADOWS WONDER was not impressed with her last year, or 2 times ago, nor last time. I will continue to take her action. I think she will continue to flop, and at times just do enough to give the bettors hope, and then dash that. 

The rest:

NSDOUBLE JOY---paced evenly on the rail last time and kept up. Still doesn't add up to a win here to me. She is better off at the B's at this point.

MSMACHNBYRD PRINCESS---2nd off the claim. She has not done enough lately to make me play her. I need to  see more. So far, I don't.

NSWINBAK YOUR KASH---doesn't look dangerous in this spot. She has troubling finishing at this track when she isn't absolutely at the bottom condition. Pass. 

MSTWILIGHT SEELSTER---is capable of beating them all at her best. She doesn't appear to be that currently. If she is looking for another leave and back down half to score like last time, she came to the wrong place. Pass and I want to see her do more if she is to come back. 

MSOCEANVIEW BINDI---hangs around in this class and almost got it done last week. I could have rated her top 3, but the post equalizes her out for me. Another day, maybe. Top 3, probably.

Race 7

Overall synopsis: I don't care much for the top 2 faves, and I feel they will be foolishly overbet. So, I start with that and look for viable options. If I'm wrong, I am wasting my time. But, you only have to be right enough when you feel that way. And the key is to get the viable ones right when you are. The worst thing you can do is beat two heavy chalks and still not make money.

Probable Favorite:TESSA SEELSTER

TWIN B HONOUR  wired them last time from the 7 hole at Georgian, which is not easy to do. She has been keeping tough company, and relatively speaking these are softer. Sharp and picks up Trevor again. My top call. Should get a price with Tessa taking money.

CHEEKIE  Took down a heavy chalk last time and gets better and better and better. Another tough test tonight. She could be the one, but I prefer a proven commodity like my top choice better. 

CAPELA  parked the mile, is on the edges now. She needs to step up. I don't like her to beat my top 2, but she can make the ticket and possibly 2nd if things go her way.

 Play Against:

TESSA SEELSTER  I think she is hurting and stung. Back in with these, she takes heavy action and I will book it. These aren't terribly soft top to bottom. She can't be half okay and get away with it. Not in my view.

INVEST IN ART  failed last time as the monster chalk. These are tough. I think she is in a bit deep here. 

The rest:

NSWAR FILLY---has not impressed me now that she has won her way up the ladder. Pass


NSGRACIES PARADE---learning, but she meets bearcats tonight. Pass. Watching for the score. It's coming.

NSMARIGOLD BLOOM---hard to like off those lines. Watching.

NSI WONDER WHY---10 hole. No shot.

Race 8

Overall synopsis: The likely favorite looks very solid here to me, but the price will be very short. I will play her with others in an exotic and try to get price that way.

Probable Favorite: SETANTA

SETANTA  stays flat, should steamroll this bunch at a very short price. 

ROCKY DE VIE  shows glimmer of hope, and I'd use him on the bottom of the exactor. Risky. He stops bad, really bad, when he stops.

 Play Against:

PISCEAN had turned into a very bad actor,  and I wont go near her, even though she has talent, until she shapes up.

LETS BE HONEST  got it done last time. This spot is a bit tougher. Minor shot. I like others better. 

The rest:

NSFREDDIE---has some talent, but continues to find ways to blow it. If he isn't running, he is starting bad, or moving too early. I pass until I see some evidence he is solid.

NSCANDIDA---very low percentage winner. No thanks.

NSROYAL DAZZLER---well bred horse that just doesn't get it done. Can't touch him here.

NSCOOL CREEK VALLEY---Back to Harding. Moreau couldn't help. That isn't likely to be a good sign.

NSI JASMIN---In the long line of low percentage trainers, this one has the worst on this curcuit. Mare has some talent..but it is wasted here.

Race 9

Overall synopsis: Fairly mixed bag of horses with suspect form who could go either way. I picked the one going in the right direction. Horses for courses. Timing is everything.


FRANNEY LOVE DAT  my best bet of the night. She has really turned it around with Zeron, and this is a good spot for her. As this spot goes, its fairly soft. The better ones seem flat right now, so its her chance to graduate. If one of them wakes up, she could go down. I like that she is leaving better now and the long stretch here means she can grab cover and come back out. The price should be right. I'm looking for 7-2 or higher.

 SASSAFRAS GIRL very inconsistent filly, as many from her sire are. I suppose she has a shot, but I like my top choice better. She needs to do more. So far, she doesn't. 

SHOW SOME LEG  starts bad, but has some good finish at times. I could see her getting up for 3rd if she gets the right trip. A lot would have to go right for her to get it done.

 Play Against:

GIRLOFYOURDREAMS does not impress me and her Sire Stakes form does not infer she can handle these. I will play against her short price.

ZIP CODE ENVY  stopped badly last time and has not come back to the races good this year. I think she will pop eventually, but for now, I am going against her. I went with her last time, and she burned me. 

The rest:

PINOT GRIGIO---have not liked what I've seen from her for a while. Pass.

JACLYN HANOVER---Not a WEG horse. I've said that before. I stick with it.

WARRAWEE QUALLY---Very low percentage winner.
Race 10

Overall synopsis: Going against the heavy chalk here, on the hunch she isn't right and ripe to go down.

Probable Favorite: CAST NO SHADOW

WIN THE GOLD  I think she has enough talent that she steps up tonight if the chalk doesn't come through, which is my play. I think she is better than she has shown this year and will pop eventually. 

CODE ONE HANOVER  was an impressive wire to wire winner last time at Georgian. If she comes back to that, she is tough in here. She meets a few in here who are keeping better company, and she doesn't always show up. Minor shot, but I went elsewhere. 

 Play Against:

 CAST NO SHADOW is a very nice filly, but the way they race her, and how she seems to be razor sharp and then have issues, I am suspicious she could be heading for trouble. If she performs, she would probably dominate this bunch tonight. Your call. I will go against her. 

AN ANGEL SHES NOT  got it done last time, but goes in with bearcats here. I like others a lot better,  and can't see her beating all of them, or even many of them. 

The rest:

SOUTHWIND MISCHIEF---won last time, but has been flat this year,  like most of Colemans. Not tonight for me.

PEPPERMINT PATTI---Was good for a while. She has tailed off.

YOUR MY SECRET---First time lasix, but I'm not sold the problem is simply she has raced up the ladder as far as she can go.

CALL ME MAYBE---won last time, but she goes good, bad, good, bad. These are tough. Not tonight for me.

MARY CELESTE---Impossible to like with these.

MYSTIQUE BEACHBUM---post really hurts her. Minor bit player if she gets the right trip.


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