Monday, June 22, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 22, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 on Damfoolrmillionair in the 4th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Stormont Contessa in the 10th
Best Place Bet:$10 on Dewy Take A Selfie in the 2nd
Best Show Bet: $10 on Stormont Contessa in the 10th

Worst Win Bet:  $10 on Renegade Magic in the 2nd
Race 1  $10 show on Judy The Beauty
Race 2  $10wp on Dewy Take A Selfie
Race 3  $10ws on Amble Over Hanover
Race 4 $10 win on Damfoolrmillionair and Body Balance
Race 5  
Race 6  
Race 7  
Race 8  
Race 9
Race 10  $10win, show on Stormont Contessa

MS---minor shot---W-
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watchIng for a future play

Race 1

Probable Favorite: CINCINNATI MISS

SUMTHINTOTALKABOUT  is the one I go to here. She trotted a strong mile to be a clear 2nd last time in 55 and has shown that type of talent before. She didn't fall into that trip. She was 3 high on the turn and worked for it.  She has an edge on these in my view. I'd want 5-2 to dive in. I might get that.  

LCRAINBOW VIEW  comes back to the big track after running at the start last time at Georgian. Its a curious entry, and I put nothing past Zeron. This is a pretty soft bunch, and if you are looking for a longshot, she is it. I will use her and my top choice in the double.  

MSJUDY THE BEAUTY  was solid on the engine last time and I can see Jmac trying that again. I don't think she can last all the way, but she is likely to be around. If enough of them happen to blow up, she might go all the way.  

 Play Against:

CINCINNATI MISS  got it done last time, but again looked suspect and was able to just hold on. She wont get away with that here. They will come at her, and if pushed, she could run or have to be held on to and passed easily. I will take that action. 

The rest:

MSMASS RAIL---got around clean last time with Trevor and that is at least something. I'm not sold the problem is solved. Wont take her action, but I like others better. She will have to be seen.   

NSELEGANT HOLIDAY---changes trainer from Brethour to Dagfin and jumps right into the Sire Stakes fire against proven winners, many who have won a Grassroots. Can't see this as a good spot, even assuming the filly is straightened out.  

NSFIERY EYES---seems up against it here on multiple levels, namely post, speed and class. Yeah, that doesn't sound positive for her chances. Pass.   

NSGEE OKEEFFE---total outsider here.   

MSBISTROBISTRO TAJ---blew up at the start last time when she was first time lasix. Now, she draws post 10. Watching. She has talent. Can't use her from this spot off that last line.  

Race 2

Probable Favorite: RENEGADE MAGIC

DEWY TAKE A SELFIE got away dead last last time but to her credit she trotted strong to get up for 3rd to a pretty sharp foe she avoids here. I think there is something there and I will call her at the price for the upset. She shows flashes of high speed. Now, she needs to carry it. 

MSLADYONE   trotted a very strong mile last time to a bearcat who is 1-9 in here and draws a bridgejumper if she was in the mix. She didn't let her go by easy either. I am not sold she has the grit, but she has a shot here.  

MSHAPE is in the mix if she behaves and gets the trip. She can probably get the trip, but behaving is an issue for her. She isn't very bright, to put it kindly. If there is any kind of delay or recall, she is a total toss. There have been many lately with these types.   

 Play Against:

RENEGADE MAGIC she is very erratic, and obviously has speed to burn if she holds it together. Until I see some consistency, I will take her action. Two breaks at different points in the mile do not look good to me. One I chalk up to being green. The second one suggests a secondary issue. Watch her post parade to see how she looks.

The rest:

MSPINKY THE INTERN---has met some tough ones lately, so I can give her a pass for not finishing up as strong as you would hope. I am still not sold she is an OSS horse, so I watch her tonight to see how she stacks up with a group that is basically ones that can just barely win a maiden at this track. Acid test time for her tonight. 

NSSUMMERS JEWEL---was a fairly decent and consistent filly last year, but she has been the total opposite this year. I can't touch her the way she appears currently. Pass.   

NSFLEXCEPTIONAL---doesn't do enough in my view to handle these types. 56 and a bit seems to be her limit, and that isn't good enough in here. Pass. 

NSMAGICAL LASS---post 8 with Per, ran at the start last time and has not shown she can go with A track horses. Pass on all that nonsense. She should stick to Georgian. 

NSTEA BREAK---maiden coming off a break with the 9 hole. No thanks.  

Race 3

Probable Favorite: BEACH HERO

AMBLE OVER HANOVER  finds a nice spot for him. Jody gets along good with him, and he avoids the tougher ones who normally take his tag or higher. The balance in here all have issues and are the types he beats if he brings it. I'd need 3-1 to take him on. Not sure if I get it. I need it, or no play on this race. 

SANATTLE SLEW  figures to be close. Short enough price to go against him for the win. Solid show play again, but I can't play him for the win based on his win record and how he races.   

MSBIG TIME ROCKS  was one of many who were daylighted in the stretch when Prescotts Hope was on another planet. He was okay otherwise, but I wasn't terribly impressed. He likely draws 7-2 tonight, and that isn't enough for me. Pass on him. No play. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

NSSAULSBROOK PEACH---seems well over his head with this entire group. They go in 51 or more, he is on his life to get under 53.  

MSMY MAN CHARLEY ---I don't discount the combo of Puddy and Trevor with this type of horse, but I think he is a cut below most of them. That is not to say he can't step up, because as a rule, they aren't the most reliable and gritty bunch. Minor shot if he was on his toes and they don't all show up.  

MSBEACH HERO---tried to keep up to the juiced up winner last time, but the other trainer had better gas than Isaac. Ya, I just wrote that.   

Race 4

Probable Favorite: SLIP INTO GLIDE

DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR    looked to be in perfect striking position last time to go by them all, but he was just a bit flat. It was only his 2nd start back and I'm hoping he is just that much tighter tonight. He will need to be. My 2nd choice wont be easy to beat, and my play against has good days where he would also give him a run for his money. He needs to bring his A game tonight. 

BODY BALANCE  moved up to the Preferred last time  and that was too tough. Back here, he has a legit shot if he holds form, gets a decent trip and has a clear lane. I can say he has not had that clear lane a few times lately. No excuses tonight if he does.  

 Play Against:

MSSLIP INTO GLIDE  is likely to take heavy money, as the bettors love him when he seems good. I will take that action. He also gets 2nd and 3rd a lot with these types. There are some tough ones in here.

The rest:

NSEXTRACURRICULAR---shot the gap for Fillion last time at just the right time. Can't see that happening again. It would need to. These are much tougher.  

MSBUDDY HALLY---was better last time but these are still going more than he seems able to at this point. Minor shot if they fail, but otherwise, he is chasing their tails.  

NSMMS LUCKY BOY---meets a bunch here he can keep up with but likely not beat. Bit player. 

WATCHMSBOUNCING BAX---2nd time Moreau. I'm on the fence with this one and want to see her one more time.  

NSCAN I SAY---drifted out badly again last time. Ticking time bomb. These are tough. Pass. 

NSOLE JACK MAGIC---hasn't found the soft field he needs here. 

Race 5

Overall synopsis:Two horse race in my view. My top 2 picks. Don't like any of the rest for the win.

Probable Favorite:BRINKERS DREAM

MAGIC DANCING  I went to for the win, but its really a toss up for me with the 2nd choice. Whichever one brings it tonight is the likely winner.   

BRINKERS DREAM see above.  

MSMISCHIEF SMILE   3rd best in my view. If the top 2 run, has a shot to best the balance.  

 Play Against:


The rest:

MSCOLORATURA---will hang around but I think the top tier is beyond her at this point.  

NSP L INDYANACA---has some ability, but is too erractic for me at this stage.   

NSROSIES POCKETS---has some ability but is very green. Dangerous if she puts it together, but I don't think that is tonight.  

NSMISSLARISSA---needs more speed for these. A lot more speed.   


NSMEGANOU---looked pretty wonky again last time. She is hard to like most nights.  

NSI FEEL GOOD--- pass 

Race 6

Overall synopsis: After the top 4, it gets very thin. They all seem in this as filler.

Probable Favorite:LADY CATERINA

OH MY MAGIC  I went to as my top choice. She only needs to leave a bit better to be in position to pass them instead of finish with them. I'd want 3-1 and I think that is reasonable.   

LCFLEXY MILLIE I play as a longshot. I think there is something there, and she will pop at some stage. It could be tonight. It could be 4 months from now.  

LADY CATERINA   Is one I might have gone to as my top choice if not for the 3 week gap and the crazy way they have raced a young filly. I am suspicious and since I don't know her well, I will just watch.  

 Play Against:

MSLA BELLA ROSA   got it done last time with the soft bunch where her running in didn't cost her. These are not that much tougher, but a few are. She will have to be better. I don't see any evidence of that. If she gets running in bad again at the tote board, she will get picked up or out trotted.

The rest:



NS  HOPE RISES   ---  



Race 7

Overall synopsis: 


ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL     met some tough ones last time he wasn't ready for. These are more his current level of ability. If that race didn't hurt him he can go down the pike on these. As this class goes, it comes up soft this week. That work in his favor. 

POISONOUS    has been heavily bet since he showed up, and justified it. He has now missed 5 weeks plus though. Hard to play him when he is moving up and dealing with that. I suppose if he was trained very hard, which is probably something Larocque does since his long layoffs are very good off the shelf, he has a shot. 2nd best in my view if he is fit at all. 

LCELECTRIC WESTERN    missed his entire 3yo season but paced a very sharp first start this year. He is dangerous. Watching to see what he has. Certainly looks like a prospect. 

 Play Against:

ALONEINSPADES  tripped out on a very bad bunch last time and made the most of it. Fillion goes against a live Moreau one here. That is enough for me to pass on him for now.

The rest:

MSSHOULDHAVEBETMORE---will be bet on the Montini angle. I'm not sold. This horse looks to have serious issues. Must be seen.   

NSANTAR PHIL---tried it on the engine last time but gave it up. I don't see him as legit at nw2 at this point. At least he is driving a bit straighter. Likely better at KD or Georgian, where he might be a play at odds.   

NSLANCASTER PARK---did not look good last time and seems to have gone South after he was razor sharp out of the gate.   

NSMYSTICAL JET--- horrible gaited rat who was running in horrible. Can't see him with these.  

LCROLLWITHTHEPUNCHES---I suppose you can't count Casie out, but this one is hard to take. Probably a start or two from being shipped unless he gets his act together.   

Race 8

Overall synopsis:Very mixed bag. Play for price and use almost all of them in the pick 4. Hard to get anything across here with confidence. I will pass on the race completely.

Probable Favorite:LADY PING



LADY PING       

 Play Against:


The rest:



  MSMASSIMA   ---  




DESIS DREAM    ---  

Race 9

Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite:ETRUSCAN HANOVER

 COCO LINDY     sharp and looks as good as any. I'd want 2-1 and I'm not sure its there.  

 ETRUSCAN HANOVER     Etruscan seems to have his act together now, but met some who didn't care and just outclassed him. Back in with these, if he keeps the good behavoir ball rolling, he is mega tough. The top choice has a history of showing up here and going on a run. It should be a good race.  

 WINDSUN REVENGE     Is another on the improve, and I can see him if things go wrong for my top 2. In the mix. Needs another trip. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

MSADVERSITY--- was so good a month ago, but has gone completely South. Watching. I don't know what to expect from him now. 

 CHINA PEARLS---probably needs another in my view to tackle the best in here.   

MSNORTHERN VICTORY---has not been good enough lately. Can't see him against the top 4 here.   

  BURNIN MONEY---seems to have trouble passing these when he gets up to this level. Back down a level or two, he becomes more dangerous.  

 HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS---came up the rail last time to nab 2nd. He is good at that. I can't back him for the win currently. He keeps failing me.  

 WHISKEY TAX---bad driver and he isn't finishing enough. Same old same old this year for him. Pass.  

Race 10

Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite: HAPPY HOLIDAYS

 STORMONT CONTESSA    my longshot play of the night. I like what I've seen from this one for a while now. These don't look very tough. She needs to perform.  

TYRONE ZOEY   has a legit shot as Randy ditches the winner he chose over her last time to go back to her. Which is curious. 

 MUSCLE KIT     was an easy winner last time and has a nice big stride. But it didn't look like she wanted to go by, and that is troubling. She has a shot, but I like my top 2 better. 

 Play Against:

 HAPPY HOLIDAYS    got it done at 15-1 last time, and was full value. This time, the short price and I go elsewhere, price shopping as I did when I cashed on her last time. Timing is everything. 

The rest:




  I LOVE BLUE  ---  




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