Tuesday, June 2, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 2, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $102

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 win on Make Some Luck in the 3rd
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Halton Hurricane in the 4th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Tymal Colussus in the 1st
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Regal Sight in the 6th
Best exactor bet:
Longshot exactor bet:none
Best Exotic Bet: :
Worst Bet:  Naturescape to win. $12

Race 1


TYMAL COLOSSUS         $4 to win,10 place

WELL CONNECTED KID made a break at the start last time at Hoosier, but recovered quickly and got back in the mix for a reasonable 4th. These aren't likely any tougher than those and he has racelines down the page where he was competing with 20's at Yonkers,  which are much tougher than these. He has a legit shot. He has won 10 of 50 the last two seasons. That means he wins races.  Top call in a tight one with choice 2.

TYMAL COLOSSUS is a rock solid type with these who wins his share, but is beatable enough on any given night. He comes back to Moreau on the claim, and Plante is on the ownership papers so he drives. He goes back out the door on the claim tonight, so he is going to the chooch. I think my top pick CAN take him down. I will play it that way. It could go either way.

ARCTIC TALE has trotted two solid, steady miles with these for Johnson. I thought he might go forward off the claim for him, but as of yet, he has not. That could still happen in here. I will just watch him again. No play, no book. He is hard to figure. If the price were huge, I'd play him. I don't see that tonight.

 Play Against:

Joseph Gerard was good Joseph last time. When he is, he is very tough with these..and better. However, he goes good and bad so fast that tonights likely short price makes me lean on book, not play. He can certainly beat me. Risk/reward play.

The rest:

MAJESTIC MYSTIC---gets a driver change from Renaud to Saftic, and that is certainly significant. The post is good, his form is okay enough and he is certainly possible and in the mix. The long price is probably gone now, and I will watch to see if it makes a difference. He has a shot. I like others better.

JUSTALITTLEFASTER---ran at the start last time, and even when away cleanly, he is a slow starter to say the least. He comes out for Pat Hudon, who at one time was a very solid trainer/driver. At this point, he is ofer a lot this season on both fronts. Can't see this one doing any damage here.

NORTHERN KENDRA---staggered home a winner for 6 last time at Flamboro after failing at that level for weeks. These are way tougher. No shot.

Utopia---is wildly inconsistent, due to breaking and soundness issues. I will continue to stay away. I don't see that improving and the best he does is continue to be babied and pick up the pieces like last time.

 Race 2


Lancaster Park       $10 to win, place

Lancaster Park gets my top call to double up on this bunch. He was much the best last time and full value. I don't think he is a Gold horse, but he is the best of this bunch in my view. He has nice tactical speed and he can finish well also. He is the type that will get better with age. Very much like Nirvana Seelster last year, although he is far ahead of him at this point than that one was this time last year. He has stakes experience and that counts. Top call. 

MR CARROTTS is wicked fast at times and finishes like a shot. But, he just can't put it all together most nights. I think he will eventually,  and could tonight. I like my top pick better, for now. I think at some point he will be the better one and might be a Gold horse.

 Play Against:

ANTAR PHIL didn't look any better in his first start of the year than he did last year. He was bearing out really bad and only won because the field was short and the one who had any shot was very green and not able to go forward. These are way tougher.

Legion of Boom won two legs of the Youthful and the Count B final, but looked terrible in the Youthful final and has always shown signs of lameness. He has raced poorly the last two since that race, and he draws bad against a couple who look better than him even if he didn't. I will take his action tonight.

The rest:

MATCHPLAY BLUECHIP---is so far over his head here, I'm not sure there is actually a word for it.

WESTERN BAYAMA--ships in after being a bit player in nw2 at Rideau. He is likely the same in here. Pass for now unless he steps up. That isn't likely . He is likely here to stay with Larocque and try the conditions after this test.

BALLYBUNION---beat a horrific bunch of maidens last time and he wasn't that steady most of the mile himself. No shot with these. 

BIG MAGICK---is still a maiden and he faces proven stakes winners here. Can't be played on that variable alone. He appears to be going backwards, not forwards. Its a curious entry.

GIVE EM BACK---broke his maiden last time at Sarnia off a 59.1 half, which even 3 claimers go more to the half there. He couldn't handle maidens at this track. Nuff said.


 Race 3


Make Some Luck       $10 to win

MAKE SOME LUCK has serious lameness issues which stem from his mothers pedigree, but he also has major go when that is in check. I will play him, fresh off the shelf. There will be a time again this year to go against him. Tonight is not that night. Price play tonight thinking the chalk is suspect on the previous scratch angle. 

Star Cover has minor upset potential in here. Other than the other choices I have listed, its a ratty bunch of lame and no good ones. So, if the top choice blows up, and the 3rd choice is not up to it, he could sneak in. Post 10 is a big issue. But, he has gone with better. Not playing him, but there is respect there.

WINDSONG LIGHTNING comes off a vet scratch sick last week, and that is a concern. I can't touch him either way because of that, and I will just go with another winner I can see if he is not up to snuff this week. 

 Play Against:

THE SHADOW KNOWS  is horribly lame and gets worse every time. Can't see that getting any better chasing these around. He is living on borrowed time if you asked me.

The rest:

THREE RIVERS DELL--- gave it up again in a maiden last time when he had every reason to get it done. 0 for 11 now and he faces stakes colts. Hardly.

SPORTS LIGHTNING---broke at the start last time and was gapping the whole way the time before that. He would need 51 speed to compete here and he is about at his upper limit at 55, and that is being generous.

DEETZY---10 time gapping , nickel bred maiden with some bearcats. He has less than no shot.

ONE TO DRAW TO---might be good enough at some point. At this point, still a  maiden. Same as some of the rest. 

SEAFORTH---looked really bad last time when he was taken to the safety lane. I can't play him until I see he is okay. His trainer has a habit of tossing less than fit to race horses on the track. 

STONEBRIDGE SPUNKY---1 for 24 maiden who is fresh from several efforts getting trounced by Rideau maidens and has the 9 hole. Shall I continue?


 Race 4



HALTON HURRICANE has faced some tough customers of late, and he has shown flashes of the type of ability he needs in here, one of the softer divisions on the card. Post 9 inflates the price, and I will take a shot at him here. His back half in 54.3 would be enough to pass all of these if he is close enough and the flow is good.

MARS MAN has drawn poorly for a while now, and was still 2nd last time. He shows some very fast miles that make him viable against some very suspect faves in here. Another longshot in here who could step up.

 Play Against:

NATURESCAPE jogged last time at London and will be heavy chalk in this one. I'm not sold he is that good, although he appears very solid for the ticket. He is beatable. StLads Flirt is not a stakes quality colt and he was the 2nd best one. That is a bad reference.

ARTFUL WAY  just barely got up last time to break his maiden against one who is a noted hanger. These are tougher. He has to show me more. He has not done that yet.

The rest:

BROTHER RANDY---is a big colt with lots of ability. The big track will help him. He is possible, but he is not used to some who can go with him. Curious on him, but pass for tonight.

TWIN B SCANDAL--is the type that could step up in this spot. He beat this kind last year, and he could again. I like others, but in pick 4, I'd use him. Dangerous.

SHIPPEN OUT--has hooked some tough cookies lately, and done well to pick up the pieces. I would think he will continue on that front here. Exactor factor. Not for the win.

THE BATTLE BEGINS---is a terrible stopper who managed to outstagger one who is even worse than him. He is in deep with some of these. Play against ,  even at longer odds.

 Race 5



COOL CREEK VALLEY I will give this one a very lukewarm call on the 2nd time Moreau angle. These are soft. It's possible. Not enough for me to put money on it though. I am passing this race.

 Play Against:


The rest:

None rated---watching the rest for now.

Race 6


Regal Sight $10 to win, show

Regal Sight Gets my top call. He was in very tight last time and Randy didn't make a lot of effort to find a seam. Either way, he was live, and he can go with this bunch if he is live again. 9 hole is an issue, but it will inflate the price and I will take the value it brings. Soft bunch. 

 Play Against:

TWIN B TK has not impressed me as a stakes caliber colt yet, and he is likely taking the bulk of the win bet in here. I think he goes down by something, and I will play it that way. 

The rest:

AXELERATE SEELSTER---miles over his head at this point.

ONEWAYTOSANTEFE ---is capable enough in with this soft bunch, but I  like a couple of others more. If he wasn't a Jereme's Jet with a suspect gait, I might play him. But, he is both of those.

JUSTICE DEPARTMENT ---another maiden in with proven winners. Cant see him beating the top half of this field at this point. Exactor factor though if things go his way and many fail. That is a lot to hang your hat on, but he has some signs of talent. Galucci is fairly good. 

WINDSUN STETSON---dead heated for the win 3 back, and was double entered to go to Rideau for Macmillan then jammed again so he could steal those two purses.  Back to reality here. Over his head with some of these. 

MARACASSO---14 time stopping maiden. No shot.

MAC RAIDER---was hanging last time long before he was interferred with. I think he is too short in here to play, and I will go against him. He would have to wake up.  It could happen. I don't think it will.

MACH THE KASBAH--another very suspect maiden

EVERY INTENTION--10 hole and he isn't doing much to like anyway. Have to pass.

Race 7


Moonwards Hanover  $6 to win

Moonwards Hanover my top call, was good with these last year for a while and came back good this year with 2 preps at London. He is in soft tonight and has a shot. Minor shot. I will play him that way. 

THE FIRE WITHIN finally gets a good post and last time split horses with lots of pace and got 2nd before being taken down. He has a shot, but he is not my top one and I will just watch. His suspect breeding concerns me for the win with better ones. 

 Play Against:

Major In Life ships in from the Big M, and he is the logical play. I'm not sold his short price is justified here. I will play against it.

The rest:

Mach Code--is progressing well and did okay with this class of horse last year. But, I think he needs a couple more before he is win worthy  this year with these. Pass tonight. He is a prospect.

PERSUADER ---looks to put the cart before the horse here. He hasn't been dangerous with maidens, yet meets stakes horses here. Pass.

BADDATEEN ---no shot. just read the program. must be a mistaken entry.

JEB---beat these once last year, but he is a hanger and bit player type. Same here.

DRAFT SEELSTER---6 time maiden who got beat in one of those at London last time. No thanks.

MIDNIGHT PLAY---could be a player, and has upset potential, but post  9 and his 1  for 20 record make me think to wait for another day, better spot and post. He is being watched.

PIER HO TEMPTATION--10 hole compromises his chances quite a bit. Not a toss, but so much would have to go right for him. Can't see it.


Race 8



CREAMPUFF MACDADDY my top call, I will go with him on the shoeing change, 2nd time Jackie Mo and that he has the talent if sorted out. Obviously, he is risky. He has dived in value this year. Problems are there. Price Play. 

FORK would be my top play if he had drawn better.  He raced great last time and if he can maintain that, he is going to score soon. I will just watch him again tonight. He has the talent. We all know that. Another with issues but big upside.

 Play Against:

Kremlin another Northville shipper for Joe C, and they haven't done well lately. He is spotty anyway. I will take his action tonight. He is dangerous enough, but has blow up tendancies as a history.

The rest:

The Traveller--raced good for  Zeron last time. 3 weeks ago. He is hard to take at a short price for many reasons. I will study him again.

the rest ---don't look dangerous to me and I wont rate them. One of them could come out of the pack. I couldn't tell you which, or why. So, I will not.

Race 9


Pace Seelster  $4 to win

Pace Seelster I am playing him on the upset chance. He got 3rd in one of these last year and seems to be rounding into form now. I hate the chalk and find it hard to find another, so, I will take my chances with him and the price. 

CHARLOTTES COLONY beat these last year at Clinton and is as capable and as good as most. He has a shot. He's a grinder and needs a trip. He might get it.

 Play Against:

Camvicted I have never been a fan of this one and in stakes company, I like him even less. His win at London does nothing to change that. They were extremely soft, even for that track that night. He had the 2 hole and got the to rail... and that was enough. He just breezed from there. There are better ones in here and one of them is likely to take him down.

The rest:

MYHONEYTELLSALL--won last time at London but has not done enough lately for me to think he can take these down. I say he is 50-50 for the ticket, but that is about it.

HALF A BILLION---looked really lame last time and I'd avoid him until I see that corrected. Pass.

Race 10



NOR STAR RENEGADE Is another I will play tonight for the upset chance. He beat these once last year, and he has very good gate speed but needs to get there and trip out. That is possible here. This is a suspect bunch in my view and I will play for his price. Post 9 hurts his chances but ups my price. 

FIGHTTOTHEFINISH has crazy gate speed but is hard to rate and can be a runaway like last time. He doesn't have the talent to pull that off. Maybe Moreau has sorted him out. If he has, he is dangerous. If he hasn't, he is hard to see lasting with better that he is now facing. Feast or famine with him. I will watch to see where he is at. There is some talent there.

 Play Against:

TEA WITH MS MCGILL looks to have issues, and has only beaten a very soft bunch of maidens once in the winter. I can't see him taking this field down. Likely he is overbet.

The rest:
 -York Seelster-looked really good at times last year, but finished off the year terrible, and appears to have not come back good. He might come around, but I have to avoid him until I see some evidence he is sorted out. I have not seen enough yet to put money on him.

the rest---look like pretenders to me. Can't back any of them.

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