Overall Bets: $ $
Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet: $10 on Homen Dry in the 1st
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Your My Secret in the 7th
Best Place Bet:$10 on The Grand Filly in the 6th
Best Show Bet: $10 on The Grand Filly in the 6th
Worst Win Bet: $10 TESSA SEELSTER in the 7th
Bets
Race 1
Race 2
Race 3
Race 4
Race 5
Race 6
Race 7
Race 8
Race 9
Race 10
LEGEND
MS---minor shot
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watching for a future play
Card data notes:
post 1 very due.
JD ,
JMo both very due. PH due. RW no wins last 3 cards.
10-1 no wins last 3 cards.
5th fave very short of wins lately.
Less than even money faves 16 for 18. Due to
miss the ticket.
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Race 1
Overall synopsis: Two horse race, and I like my top choice much better to get it done. The rest look to be racing for minor cheques.
Probable Favorite:MAGIC SHELLEY
HOMEN DRY basically his 3rd start off the shelf and last time the effort was very good to only get beat by Boli, who would likely steamroll this bunch. CC chose him over my 2nd choice, and I will go to him here, even though I am likely looking at 7-5 to 9-5. If he keeps going in this direction, he should return to the Stakes colt he was last year.
MAGIC SHELLEY gets Fillion, as CC chose my top choice, and while she is talented and very fast, she gapped the gate bad last time and didn't have enough to recover. Those were high end Stakes fillies and most of these are claimers or soon to be very cheap claimers. If she had made a better on track appearance last time, I might play her here, but I will go with the one who impressed me more last time. I could see my 3rd choice getting up for 2nd also if she backs away again at the start.
LEXUS ROCKY trotted a solid mile with these last time to get 3rd. Trevor is back on board, and the post is good. He seems much improved for Sinclair and I could see him getting it done, and would use him in a minor way for the double.
Play Against:
MAGIC SHELLEY for the reasons above, her short price and the way she appeared on the track last time.
The rest:
ROCKY DE VIE---is showing signs of coming around, but now moves up and these are just a bit tougher. I will continue to watch this one, as I suspect McNair is figuring him out as he goes and improving him over time.
LOVE DETECTIVE---seems to have hit the wall class wise and it doesn't get easier here now that she went to Georgian and didn't get it done there against some who are basically 10 claimers at this track. Until she can finish a lot better than she does, I pass on her.
FASHION GODDESS---made a break leaving for a driver who doesn't know here at Grand River last time. Otherwise, she hasn't looked good for a while anyway. I can't go near her until she shows something to suggest she isn't going very much the wrong way and heading for a 5 claimer at London in the fall.
CANDIDA---has one lifetime win, and in this class, she hasn't made the Super on the page lines. She is impossible to like even against these soft ones. Another who needs to find a very cheap claimer.
MY KID SISTER---got the parking ticket last time, which is very unusual for Randy on a young horse. She just doesn't look right to me on the track, and until that is corrected, I will pass on her.
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Race 2
Overall synopsis: Somewhat wide open, and I will go against the favorite and likely 2nd choice for 2 I also like for a price.
Probable Favorite: LOVELY ERIN
HIGH FASHION MEL has six lifetime wins, and paced a sharp win in 56 flat over Grand River last time. She has gone in 53 in the late winter on this circuit and that was when 53 was more like 51 now. Pond is a very high percentage trainer and Randy is probably a good fit for this filly. Top call and I want 9-2 to play her.
LIVING HISTORY came up short last time off a decent enough trip, but she was coming off a vet scratch. She has hinted at high ability since she first surfaced, but like many Art Major's she seems to lull on the way to getting to the destination. I could see her taking this at a price and I rate her just about even with my top choice.
SOUTHWIND GEISHA
will likely be a short price here, and probably deserving. She started
slow again last time but just picked them off in time. I'm not sure some
of these will be as easy to pass with that strategy. She has issues at
the gate and in this type of company, it will cost her.
Play Against:
LOVELY ERIN did not look good at the back of the pack last time against Stakes fillies. I suspect a trip to the vet was made between then and now. She still should take heavy chalk and I will go against that here. Adams charges seem to be tailing off, suggesting whatever he is using is wearing off and he needs new pupils. He has been doing that as of late, but the ones still left over might be bottoming out on the potion.
The rest:
CAVIART CARI ANN---is a 13 time maiden facing proven stakes horses. Have to pass. Tough spot for a mare who should be in a maiden.
IMAGINE DRAGON won 2 starts back by getting a soft 2nd quarter and then pacing home
fast over Pocono. Cheap speed can win there. She ran last time and now
tackles some who show a lot more than her. I can't use her for the win,
but she could trip out into 3rd if she doesn't have to work for it.
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Race 3
Overall synopsis:More very green two year olds with big last quarters who have really yet to be seen. Crapshoot time and I go on the way my top choice was raced and the chance for a decent price. If any of these this week is likely to bring a longshot, its this race. The balance of the field all look like sleepers and one could wake up.
Probable Favorite: MATCHPLAY HANOVER
MATCHPLAY HANOVER If he lives up to the qualifier, he would be very tough. He will have to be seen.
BETTING LINE is another with speed to burn. We shall see.
WORTHY ART have to respect Moore and Trevor as a combo, but he will need more to go with the top 2. One to watch for the season for sure.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
not rated
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Race 4
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: GRACIES PARADE
DIANNA SANTANNA drops down and has a better post. Maybe that will be enough. I am suspicious, but she does show talent at times and these are soft.
GRACIES PARADE gets a better post and I'm looking for a wakeup here. I'd need 8-1 to play here, but she has shown signs for a while and this class is just right for here.
MEA LILLEY MARK I put for 3rd, but she hasn't been as good since the Gangell junk isn't in her. Fellows is good, but she clearly isn't the same without the juice.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
SHADOWS WONDER---is very hard to like off the way she has been racing, even on the drop in class. Post 9 probably hurts her more than most, as she likes to lead and would have to work very hard to get it. That seems to be an issue for her anyway.
DOUBLE JOY---still needs to show more.
FAROUCHE HANOVER---has not impressed me and no matter how low she goes, she hangs. Pass.
CARDS THAT COUNT---no shot
CALL IT COURAGE---bad form. Can't use her.
WINDSUN KENDA---shows little to suggest she is going to step up.
MARY CELESTE---post 10. Bad form. Pass.
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Race 5
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: RIDE AWAY SHARK
VICTORIA SEMALU ships in and I will call her in the upset. The price will be right and I think many of these will be overbet.
ZIP CODE ENVY just got it done last time and these are about the same types. She has a shot, but she has hung a few times and I'm not sold on her. Call for 2nd.
BETTOR OUT WEST blew up the tote board last time, a total reversal of her dull form. I think she hangs around here, but would need a lot to go her way to get it done.
Play Against:
RIDE AWAY SHARK is one I've never liked on the win front and while she shows flashes, she doesn't get it done and then goes off again.
The rest:
MARIGOLD BLOOM---newcomer who did little last time. Watching to see what she brings.
MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS---not doing enough to entice me. B track type in my view.
CHEEKIE---met her match last time. Not sure if this is the right type of class for her. Not a claimer, but not these either. Pass for now.
LITTLE MISS ARTIST---hard to like based on her lines.
PAID IN CASH---has been awful for a long time.
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Race 6
Overall
synopsis:
Probable Favorite: BIG RICH
THE GRAND FILLY looks much the best if she behaves, but at a probable 4-5 or less, I will just watch. Single in the pick 4 in my view.
I JASMIN if anything upsets my top choice, its this one. Still, Anna Glide. That is my issue. Waiting for someone to step up and take this one off her hands. I hammer her the week after that happens. Watch for now. Minor shot if the chalk blows up.
Play Against:
BIG RICH has not impressed me in two starts and didn't even look good winning. I have to see more and there are enough tougher ones in here to suggest that he is on his life to make the ticket as is.
The rest:
not rated
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Race 7
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: TESSA SEELSTER
YOUR MY SECRET 2nd time Lasix and she was much better with it. These aren't tough once you get past Tessa Seelster, who I don't like. Top call.
EXHILARATED has improved quite a bit for Carmen and that puts her in the mix here. We will have to see if she has the class to go with these. She appears to.
CALL ME MAYBE hangs around, stalks and tries to swoop them at the right time. That might not work as the competition gets tougher. I will call her for 3rd.
Play Against:
TESSA SEELSTER was a monster last time. But she has issues and they can resurface at any time. I will take the short price action on her.
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Race 8
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite:P L HURRICANE
HAUTE COUTURE I go to as the viable longshot where I don't like the favorite but can't find many who can take her down. This one is a grinder, but she can grind them down on the long stretch if they are softened up for her.
P L HURRICANE the logical play at short odds, I go to another and slot her 2nd. She will be tough to beat.
LARJON LAURA gets back in this class, but the aren't all claimers in here and tougher as a rule. She will have to step up her game. I don't see it.
Play Against:
None
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Race 9
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite:
ABBIJADE HANOVER I go to as one on the improve who meets others who will take heavy money. I'm not certain they are all that much better than her when all is said and done.
EVAS GIRL seems good, really good, and then flat. I don't know which one will show up, but if she shows up, she is in the mix.I don't like the probable price, so I slot her 2nd and go for the better payoff.
INVEST IN ART was a bearcat for a couple of starts, then got beat, and last time was good but outpaced. She is settling in and will likely win her share. I like others better in this spot.
Play Against:
LINDYS OLD LADY seems logical enough, but I'm not sold she is short price worthy and will take that action.
The rest:
KARLEE SUE ---has looked awful the last few times I've seen her. Can't touch her until I see that corrected.
NATIONALIZE---has a longshot chance if she is right. I have my doubts. Adams juice appears to be wearing off.
BUSINESS AS USUAL---has been mediocre, like most of Coleman's stock. Can't go near her until I see some form reversal.
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Race 10
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: CROWN ISLE
MYSTIC DEUCE Seems improved for Billings and he has brought a few cheaper ones here that have stepped up. I will take the bigger price and hope this is another.
PROCEED TO PARTY is improving a bit, but needs to do more to take these down. Its possible. With these types, you just never know when they might click in for a week or two.
LITTLE QUICK trip dependant non trier who trips out about once every two months. Call for 3rd. That is the best I can see for him.
Play Against:
UNIQUE BARAN its hard for this type to hold form. He has done it longer than most. I can't keep backing him. I did for a while and that worked out, now I start to go the other way. He is dangerous, but the short price puts me on the other side of the fence. Risk/reward.
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Race 11
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite:
TIGRA SEELSTER Is very sharp and if she maintains, she can take this bunch. I wouldn't be surprised to see Fillion try to wire and bottom them out.
Play Against:
SHADYS M THREE win shy type who doesn't currently look good on the track as it is. Pass and book.
The rest:
HAT TRICK HONEY---hung badly last time against a very weak winner. No shot here.
BOAT HOUSE ROW---goes really bad when she is bad. I will wait for a turnaround.
MACHNBYRD PRINCESS---has not gone forward off the claim. I thought she might not. I think back in a claimer is where she needs to be.
TWILIGHT SEELSTER ---
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