Friday, June 12, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 12, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 on Homen Dry in the 10th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Allie Labrook  in the 3rd
Best Place Bet: $10 on Bet Ya in the 6th
Best Show Bet:  $10 on Marlee B  in the 6th

Worst Win Bet:   $10 In Secret in the 10th
Race 1  $10 win on Onyourmarknatava
Race 2  $10 win on Iron
Race 3 $10 win on Allie Labrook
Race 4 $10 win on Wildcat Hanna, $10 place on Back yard Baby
Race 5 $10 win on R Choochoo Charlie 
Race 6  $10 win, place on Bet Ya, $10 show on Marlee B
Race 7  $10 exactor 3-8
Race 8  $10 win on Macarena Mama
Race 9 None
Race 10 $10 win on Homen Dry
Race 11  $10 win and place on Team Captain
Race 12 $10 win on St Lads Penny Lane

Race 1

Overall synopsis: Tough bunch to sort, as this group usually is. You can't have much confidence in anything you take in here. They have interchangable form week to week.

ONYOURMARKNATAVA gets my top call with Longshot Phil holding the lines. She wont be a big longshot here, but a reasonable price. Phil has driven better lately and started to win again. This mare has put two good ones back to back, and last time was like the rest---no match--for the going away winner who blew by them all like they weren't even there. Take that one away, and she is currently as good or better than all of these. The slight drop in class doesn't hurt either, but she will have to finish better this time. She runs hot and cold on that front. I am looking for some heat tonight.

MYSTIQUE BEACHBUM was all systems go for Sylvain last time, who returns. She tried to go all the way, but was hounded by one who was never going to get by but made her go too much, softening her up for the pocket sitter, who she meets again. She is possible, but she rarely goes all the way at this track off any type of trip. Good triactor inclusion, but I can't list her on top. 

ADDISON BAY met some tougher ones last time than she meets here, and her last punch wasn't so punchy. She still raced about the same as she did the time before when she got it done. She has enough ability that if she shows up and is sound, she can get it done here if they go enough up front to make her last rush more tactical. I play her for 3rd, but she is good enough to be my top choice and I'd use her in the double and pick 3s.

 Play Against:


The rest:

PICTONIAN SARETA---moves to the big track after being okay at the B's with phony 20 claimers. She has never struck me as one who has enough overall speed or grit to handle most of these. Pass on her. She will have to step up. I don't think it happens.

WINDSONG JACOBA---blew up the tote board last time off a perfect pocket trip. On her good days, she is capable enough with these. On her bad days, which are most days, she backs up and chokes down. She has one big asset, and that is her gate speed. I can't play her now, but she is dangerous enough, as most of Carmen's are when they look bad but suddenly race good. She still only finished in 29 last time, and that likely isn't enough to beat all of these. Pass.

SHADYS M THREE---looked lame to me parading and suspect in the race, which is probably the reason Randy sat and protected her.  Couple that with her pathetic win record, and you get a pass from me on her until I see all that change. She will need to drop back to the bottom again I suspect to garner my interest.

TRAMA UNIT---comes off two qualifiers, is a low percentage winner from a low percentage trainer. that.

MACHET ROCKET---tried to wire them last time but gave it up at the end. She is always in the mix if the perfect trip falls her way. I don't prefer her in the scheme of how this race shapes up, but she is possible. She needs to do more, but she rarely does.

Race 2

Overall synopsis:Two horse race. My top pick who tries to beat the heavy chalk somehow. He would likely need him to run. The others just don't figure in my view.

IRON is one I really liked on the track last year and thought he might step up as a 3yo. He meets a tough customer in the chalk here, but I don't think he can be tossed outright. Young trotters make mistakes, and if that one does, I think this guy is decent value because he would be the chalk over the balance if that one wasn't there. My top call in the upset. His first start of the year was very good and he is obviously being prepped and thought of as a serious Hambo candidate.

CANEPA HANOVER is obviously the one to beat, but he doesn't need to win to make the final, and if he has any issues, they would protect him instead of gut him to win this. He isn't a cinch in my view anyway, and while he has that fast last line at the Big M, he still hasn't beaten the best to say he towers over these. He will take some beating, but he is beatable.

MUSCLE UP THE GOAL the wildcard in this bunch. You get the feeling he has much more under the hood than they have let us see. Tonight, he has to be unleashed and race hard. I don't know if he is up to the top 2, but maybe he is. I could see him winning this if one of my top 2 runs and the other isn't as good as they appear. I'd use him on the bottom of the double in case he is all that.

 Play Against:


The rest:

RUBBER DUCK---has not shown me he can compete with the likes of these. He can make the final, but he is no threat to win this or that final next week.

OLYMPIC SON---has some upside and enough talent to possibly do better with this non restricted type of colt. In the past, the pressure of competing and being pushed has driven him to run. No play for me tonight, but I am watching to see how he stacks up. He might be a viable triactor play at long odds next week if he shows me he can hack it with these. On the fence and watching.

HEMI SEELSTER---quite a bit over his head in here and can't see him keeping up. Pass.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: The world champion chalk looks very tough in here. I am playing that she is possibly tiring from all the hard racing she has done against open company and the best male trotter around. It would take a very tired Bee A Magician to bring my top pick into the winners circle at the price I want. We shall see.

ALLIE LABROOK has been trotting huge miles at Hoosier. She came up sick two starts ago when she was supposed to race at this track. She got the tightener she needed to get back on track last time and now tackles the best there is out there. Her last quarter speed is very impressive, and tonight she gets the acid test. I say she passes. It wont be easy. These are the best of the best trotting mares around. 

BEE A MAGICIAN is the one to beat, no doubt. But, she has had a long run this year and might tail off. I will go with the upset and play a horse who shows she is coming into her own. She will take some beating for sure, and while I wouldn't outright play against her, I think her microscopic short price forces you to go elsewhere. She has bombed as the chalk before as the favorite. She did it last year in this stake in fact.

 Play Against:


The rest:

HANDOVER BELLE---has soundness and breaking issues which make her hard to back until she shows on the track she is over those. Pass for now.

HARLEY MOMMA---overmatched with these in my opinion.

CHIVAREE HANOVER---hard to figure this entry. She is marginal currently with overnight horses.

WHITE BECOMES HER---has not shown she can trot with any of these. Pass.

CLASSIC MARTINE---is suspect to say the least. Her last start, she backed away and was distanced,  then had to requalify. Last year she was top shelf. I don't see the same mare as I did last year. I went with the fresher option to take down the monster chalk. Pass on this one this time.

DANCEHALL MISTRESS---swims with the sharks tonight. I say she gets eaten alive. No shot.

Race 4

Overall synopsis: Mixed bag, as is mostly the case with this class most weeks.  I don't like many of the likely shorter priced ones, so I play for bit of a price on the one I do. No cinches here.

WILDCAT HANNA is the one I go to. She drops in class and her form isn't bad. This is a soft group and she can handle them off the right trip. I will count on CC to get her that, and I think the price is right. 

BACK YARD BABYhas put two good ones together and is certainly capable enough in ability and speed to go with these when she is right. The problem with her is that she ends up 2nd a lot more than win. That is where I slot her again.

AN ANGEL SHES NOT drops a couple of classes and her good starting spot puts her in with a shot. She isn't my preference, but I wouldn't toss her either. I just like others better than her.

 Play Against:

ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT is one I knew was in trouble when I saw her post parade and then head to the gate. She has soundness issues and even though she tries hard and has speed,  they really compromise her chances. I can't play her at all, and she is suspect enough to take action on tonight. So, I will.

The rest:

I GOT TO BOOGIE---drops down in class, but her last few have not been good period. She would have to do a lot more to beat my top 2 choices in here, and I don't see it. She was good about 6 weeks ago, but tailed off quickly. She has always been the type that lost form if you made her race hard for a week or two. She will get it back at some point. I don't think its tonight. That is my opinion. I think she would be better one class lower and I will take a long look at her if she ends up there next time.

THATLL BE FRANNY--drops..but her form is terrible. She is an older mare and she doesn't compete when things bug her. Have to pass on her based on what I see.

NAT A VIRGIN---continues to burn chalk money for Jones. I have not been impressed once with her this year. She simply never gets it done. Pass one more time for me. If she rushes up for 2nd or 3rd this week and drives her odds back down again, I will take her action again next time.

SOLID QUEEN---takes the big class drop, but was way over her head in with those and double digits for a reason. Until she shows some signs of life, I don't go near her.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: Danielle Hall? A big go, or out for a trip to right the ship? That is the question. If you can answer that and figure out who benefits if she isn't win worthy tonight, you get a solid price.

R CHOOCHOO CHARLIE has started poorly as of late, and before that, when he was good, he would to the engine. He has kept up well enough to suggest that Trevor might try that tactic here, and other than my 2nd choice, he doesn't have much to beat if he tries. Top call if he is sent, which is my hope.

DANIELLE HALL put the trotting hobbles back on and got around safely. I'm not sure the goal tonight is anything more than do that again and at a faster speed. I can't back her until I see her race like she did last year. Neither am I sold that the only issue was the free legged part last time. Wait and see and list for 2nd. I am suspicious.

MUSICAL SPELL has been on the fringes with this type for a few weeks, but is capable enough to pull the upset if things go his way.

 Play Against:


The rest:

DOMEDOMEDOME---seems to be stalled currently at the speed she had to win below. I still think she needs time to adapt, but might be there by Labor Day. Some tough ones this time. Pass on her but I continue to watch for a sign she is ready to step up.

TAROT---has terrible form and has fallen off a cliff since he got hot in the winter for Tyrell. He will come around again because Tyrell will find a way. I can't back him tonight off those racelines and some in here who are probably better than him even if he was 100%, which is in serious doubt right now.

KATE SMITH---cannot trot a flat mile lately and looks lame parading. No thanks.

ELIZA DREAM---won twice a step lower, but these are much tougher and she seems in deep to me to get anything more than a minor prize. She is at the crossroads now.

THERESADEMONINME---left out from the rail at Georgian, back the half down, gunned the 3rd and coasted home. None of that will work here. He has to show he is better than when he left to accomplish that. Watching.

A LITTLE MORE LOVE---was good last year but has not started the season well. Have to see more. Bad post tonight. Pass and watch for a late brush for a share to get me interested again.

Race 6

Overall synopsis:

BET YA is currently just a notch below the best, but she doesn't face them here. She meets one who might give her trouble, but that one has trouble winning at times. I rate her above that one, my 2nd choice. She needs a solid pace to chase, and if so, she finishes well enough to pass them all. She has a lot of grit when looked in the eye. You have to like that about her. 

MARLEE B beat these in her 2nd last after failing a few times below that. She comes back with a win, and has a legit shot. However, she doesn't always gut it out when she needs to, and because of that, I rate her 2nd, not 1st.

REGIL ELEKTRA moves to O' Sullivan after a one race stay in the barn of the now benched Robinson. I will watch her once to see how she responds. Off the right trip she is dangerous, but my top 2 look sharper than her. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY---2nd off the shelf. I am not sold she has recovered from whatever bothered her at the end of her 2yo year. She will come around at some point, but these aren't soft. I will watch closely tonight to see where she is at. She didn't look right on the track to me last year. Art Major's don't wear well as a rule.

HOPE FOR PADDY---was first time Moreau last time, but she gave it up to a very soft bunch and did not impress. These are far tougher. Can't use her. Moreau has not been lighting it up lately, and that angle is dead to me now unless I see a turnaround. It seems whatever gas he had, others have better stuff right now.

KISS ME OR NOT---went all the way last time, but these are far tougher and she hasn't shown she can beat the top 3 or 4 in here. I can't play here tonight. She will have to step up.

EMPRESS DEO---has gotten beaten soundly in her last two by many who would not contend for the top 3 here. Until I see she is more than a one move speedball who quits, I can't touch her. She might make it to the bottom class at the rate she is going.

MISS COCO LUCK---beat many of these last time off a perfect trip, but now moves up and draws outside. Can't see her getting the trip she would need to even have a shot.

LIGHTS GO OUT---raced good last time, but her one big move was not enough as she moved up. She can do more and could get it done, but I like others more. She has a minor shot. I will look elsewhere.

Race 7

Overall synopsis: The best horse should win because she is herself now. Second is up for grabs, and I go to Charmed Life on the turnaround for a price. Most in here don't belong, and one that has a shot has not shown the class needed. 

SHAKE IT CERRY has returned to form and towers over this bunch. She performs to her ability, she will win easy. She looks good to go to me. 

CHARMED LIFE has disappointed lately, but I could see her turning it around. She has been slightly flat, but mostly the trips have gone against her. She can turn it around and get up for 2nd money here. She is the bottom of my exactor ticket. 

 Play Against:

FRAU BLUCHER likely the 2nd choice on the tote board, I think she is testing some very deep water here that she hasn't proved she can swim in last year. Until she proves to me otherwise, her fast mile at Pocono means little to me. She needs to show class. I will go with the ones who already have.

The rest:

RIVETING ROSIE---beat condition horses 2 back, then flopped on the engine next time.  I can't see her being even close here.

DORSAY---looked terrible on track last time,and has been away for a bit. She is in very deep with most of these.

BOUNCING BAX---first time Moreau. She looks over her head here.

BAX OF LIFE---in very tough, like many in here. She could nab 3rd if the right set of circumstances play out. No better than that. 

ROCKIN WITH DEWEY---has a longshot chance based on her latest form. I went elsewhere, but I'd probably toss her on the pick 4 if I played that.


Race 8

Overall synopsis:These are tough to sort. The ones I like need the right trip and can't be overused or overdriven and survive. Each of my top 3 are capable and a couple of the rest have shot too if they get the trip.

MACARENA MAMA went a tough mile last time, all out start to finish...and while it appears she stopped badly,  she was right there for 2nd. She did come home slow, but she had an excuse. A better, smarter drive this time to rate out her speed gives me the top call here.  Tonight is the night to bet her if you can get 5-2, which I think is fair, reasonable and achievable. You get Gingras here. He isn't the top driver right now by accident. He can get that trip.

EVAS GIRL went a huge trip in the Gold to get 2nd to one who is very tough to beat right now. Back in with these, she takes significant win money. I think she has a shot, but I wouldn't play her on that tote price. She is hard to play or play against. I will just go with my top pick.

UNIQUE ROCK N ROLL was a solid 2nd to a going away winner last time. She has really improved in the last month. She meets similar types here,  and I prefer them over her, but she wouldn't shock me. I'm not sure how good she is yet, but she has got my eye. Tonight is a solid test for her. There are ones in here with stakes aspirations.

 Play Against:


The rest:

MAPPOS MOENHAY---doesn't show me anything to suggest she can go what it takes to win this race, or hit the ticket for that matter.

SHELLYSSILVERMOON---picked up 3rd last time, but she just fell into that and that is about the best she can do here, assuming she lucks into that trip again. Not for the win.

LOOKERS DESTINY---can't see her with this bunch. She will have to show me she can go a lot faster. So far, I don't see it.

CALL ME MAYBE---like many Santanna Blue Chip's , sometimes she shows up, sometimes she doesn't. She is capable enough when she does, but I like others better here and she would upset me if she beats me. Outside chance, but she is so trip dependent that I can't play her when they field is deep enough , like it is tonight. Very minor longshot chance.

ROCK HER WORLD---obviously has both a lot of talent and some problems. She tried the best last year and was competitive enough, but has come back slow this year, getting beat in a nw2 at Pocono, then requalifying. She ships up here to get ready for what  I suspect is some stakes series try. Jody picked her over many others. I don't know what to think , so I will avoid her and watch.

GRACIES PARADE---was coming along as a decent prospect but has stalled lately and draws bad again. Maybe another day.

Race 9

Overall synopsis: Cakewalk for the chalk. The end.

FRENCH LAUNDRY 1-9 and still good value. That is how much he steamrolls this bunch if he behaves.

INFINITI AS was very impressive first out, but these are another stratosphere. He has one shot. The chalk runs. I'm not even certain he is 2nd, but he could be. Very soft bunch after the monster chalk.

 Play Against:

THE BANK looks to follow his stablemate around and get 2nd. He might. He wont win.

The rest:

WIN THE DAY---does not show anywhere near the class to try these. Good luck. I can't see it.

COVERT OPERATIVE---has hit the wall as he moved up the ladder and tonight he climbs on the roof. Can't see it.

CAULFIELD---raced okay last time, but he was all out for 2nd and meets many here who would crush that winner. Another who doesn't belong.


Race 10

Overall synopsis: I will go with class and some fitness over a balance who don't look that good to me at all.

HOMEN DRY was a pretty decent colt last year and was in position and on the move last time when he made a mistake. He qualified well with CC again, and he will be my best bet to make amends in this pretty soft bunch at a decent price. He was good enough to win the Define The World last year fairly easily, and none of these show that talent. He behaves and gets a clean shot, he should get it done. 

SHOW BIZ HALL is very fast, but not a good leaver and not one who wins yet. Maybe he steps up tonight, but I like my top choice much better. He has beaten stakes caliber horses. That counts for something with me. I will observe this one closely, but not play him tonight.

INNER PEACE sat the trip and came at the end, looked like the winner but hung when he had a legit shot to pounce. He is suspect but has some ability. I want to see which trotter shows up this time. Bit player for me tonight if he behaves enough to give himself a chance.

 Play Against:

IN SECRET does not trot right when he is asked to make any speed. There needs to be a correction there. Per has a history of not taking care of things and I will go against this one until he changes hands. He has ability, but it is being wasted.

The rest:

HAPE---finally draws better here, but this mare has not looked good in weeks. I doubt the post improvement helps her much here. She needs to get her act together. She will likely be okay for the Grassroots if she gets sorted out, but seems overmatched in this class at WEG. She has to be seen.

JUANITAS FURY---looked really bad parading last time and ran in the pocket the time before under no pressure. Until I see something positive, I avoid her. She has not come back to the races well.

MY KID SISTER---needed to requalify after a mistake. A trip around this time for a cheque, and I will consider her next time.

SUMMERS JEWEL---has talent but is another who has not come back good. Wait and see on her. 

CANDIDA---no shot

WIZARD OF OSNEY--terrible form and she was marginal to begin with. I can't touch her.

Race 11

Overall synopsis: If my top choice gets the right trip, he is very tough to beat here. Simple as that.

TEAM CAPTAIN left hard last time but got stuck in, because that was what J. Mac chose to do, and didn't get free in time. He still runs in, so that is an issue, but with the softer track tonight, and the relative softness of this field, he gets my top call. I wont take chalk money, so I need at least 8-5 to play him. 5-2 would be better.

AMERICAN PAPARAZZI first time Johnson, but he is 1 for 23. I want to see where he stands. He has a shot, but I rate him 2nd because I think my top choice is ready to pop and this guy is suspect until he shows he is legit. Jury is out on him. 

ROBERT HILL backed up badly last time and now finds a new barn to try him. His 3rd stop already. He is looking more and more like a Jereme's Jet as time goes on. I rate him 3rd, but that is a just 3rd and not a shot for the win.

 Play Against:

THINKOFAGAMEPLAN was rock solid last year, making the ticket every time and winning half. He has taken his time to get going this year and still doesn't appear there. Many Ponder's are like that. I will watch him tonight and take the action on anyone that thinks he will wake up tonight. There are a few tough ones in here. He would really have to step up to beat them. We shall see. I don't see it. The two behind him in the qualifier were Trama Unit and Woggy Rocks. That is not a good sign if that is the ones you struggle to beat. 

The rest:

GRITS N GRAVY---has been here before and gone back to the B's with his tail between his legs. More of the same tonight in my view.

SPORTING THE LOOK---was good early last year but finished the year poorly and has started this one off bad. Another Sportswriter who has not worn well. Sound familiar? Pass for me.

CONVERSATION BOY---paced a solid mile last time, but still only got 4th. I am not sold he is sorted out. If he was, he has the talent. One more time to get me on board.

AMERICAN ROCK---has looked horrific for a long time and needed to get to the safety lane fast to avoid causing an accident. Until I see evidence he is better, he is going in the wrong direction in a big hurry.

Race 12

Overall synopsis: The best trip decides this.

ST LADS PENNY LANE drops a notch and that may be enough. She tried to open up on them last time, and that is something they try with her from time to time. No matter how you race her, she has one big move and you have to use it wisely. Maybe McNair will do better with it this time. I will play her on that angle. Soft bunch top to bottom here. 

RUB N TUG drops a notch, but she is very win shy and I can't use her for the win. She lucks out every now and then, but I can't count on that and she has burned me before. Good luck if you play her. I cannot.

OCEANVIEW BINDI likes the front or she seemingly wont try. So, to the front she goes tonight. I'm not certain she can last on the lead, but she can go a long way. Down in class, likely farther than normal. I will call her 3rd. She could be anywhere from 1st to 5th. It all depends how hard used to the half and 3/4 she is.

 Play Against:

SHADOWS WONDER came flying down the stretch last time, and will be heavily bet off that finish. Middleton said on the pre game show he can't see her getting beat. That carries weight with the bettors. I am not sold on her and her price will be short. I will take that action. 

The rest:

DOUBLE JOY---cannot be used until she turns it around. She was a trip horse even on her best day, and she doesn't appear close to her best day right now. Just a get around the track trip tonight. We will see if she is any better.

FAROUCHE HANOVER---has raced poorly every time she has come here. At best, she is a B track horse now. I can't play her at this track based on what I've seen.

MACHNBYRD PRINCESS---drew the claim last time but couldn't beat bottom end claimers. She will have to be seen. I can't back her as is.

HAT TRICK HONEY---off many months and just starting 
back from the outside. Pass .



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