Race 1
Lucky Long looks to win 3 straight, and faces some tougher foes than she has met in those, in spite of seemingly dropping in class, when you strictly look at the amount of the purse.
She has been a steady, win in the right spot type her entire career, now 5 for 18, winning every 5 or 6 starts until she doubled up at this meet. In those 2 starts, she raced well and was full value, but also was the benefactor of very good trips. Last time, stalking a longshot in a loose pocket, angling out early and then just sitting outside that one, making the lead and hanging tough, while running a fast quarter around the turn to get some daylight. The start before that she stayed in all the way and shot up the rail when that opened, and again opened up and held firm. She is a trip horse, but takes advantage when she gets it.
Being by Lookin at Lucky, many of his get seem to need that kind of trip and dont like roughing it, nor working hard in back to back starts.
Her last race has been her best speed figure to date, and without the soft trip and a duplicate of that type of speed, she is beatable, yet legit.
Its tough to win 3 in a row period, let alone needing a soft trip and meeting some newer, tough customers who arent likely to let her fall into a comfortable lead without working for it. She is a bigger ML, but I expect her to be the chalk, lukewarm possibly, and I will play others.
Race 2
Stronger Kat is another going for 3 in a row, and she daylighted a suspect bunch last time with a final turn move that steamrolled anything that had any ideas of getting their picture taken.
She was 3-5 the best in both of those starts and left no doubt that was an accurate call by the bettors.
This will be start 6 for the filly by a sire that never raced, and while she didn't do much at all in her first 3, she switched turf to dirt in start 4 and shortened up to todays distance, and repeated that exact formula last time as she moved from maiden claimer to claimer and now doubles her tag for this bunch.
She will meet this test with new connections, being claimed last time, but keeps the top jockey at the current meet. Her main foe comes out of a maiden claimer for this tag, and was a 4-5 winner in a short field. That one has woken up since Navarro claimed her and is on a roll. Speed wise they are virtually even. Others look legit. She is another I see getting beat if pressured, which is likely.
Race 3
Seems to be a wide open affair with many having a decent shot if the trip goes their way. Pass for me.
Your best chance at getting value in this race appears to me to watch the post parade and the board and see if anything jumps out.
Race 4
Gardencity Gambler is the obvious chalk here, shipping in from Maryland off a long layoff, daylighting a terrible bunch in a maiden claimer, but running basically the same speed that got her slaughtered back in Maryland. As such, she halves her price tag off the maiden win, and meets the bottom of the barrel here. She is beatable if you can find a live one from the balance.
Glutonosa upped her tag slightly last time off a 2nd place finish the time before, and was 4th. She shortens up a shade here on the move back down. She is dangerous enough with this mediocre to horrid bunch. If she happens to bring a price on the hammering of the expected chalk, she is value. Assuming she doesnt parade terrible. She broke her maiden at this distance in a maiden claimer, so she is level in that respect with the expected fave, and has a bit more experience than that one with winners, which can be an advantage.
She comes back on 2 weeks this time, with a poor speed figure and last time she did that she was 3rd. She has to be seen in terms of what she might bring.
I could see a long shot to a bomb in this race if something jumps out. Unrivaled Soul comes back on 7 days, after running horrible last week, but she seems to alternate good and bad efforts, and the one before was good, relative to this class. She is possible, but has to bring odds, I'd say 7-1 or higher.
Lisa Mila ran no good last time but managed 3rd, a month and a bit ago, beaten by Glutonasa for 2nd. She gets a monster trainer change to Barboza, but stays at the same level. Same owner as previous. Another that has to be seen.
Race 5
Violent Times kept good company in her brief career in New York, but returns here off a long layoff for the same connections, while finishing 2nd in that last start. She broke her maiden in a MSW in late 2017, her only start that year, followed 2 months later by a stakes try at this track just over a year ago where she was 8th. She tried another stakes race at Penn on the dirt, where she was 7th, and then 2nd twice on a shorter interval in New York, then shut down to end her 3yo year. She returns here with an outside post. Her sire only made 4 lifetime starts and many of his are seemingly brittle and lightly raced. She looks like a bad favorite to me. The long layoff off good form, combined with the long gaps in her career, and her sires short career would cause me concern if I were to back her at a short price first off that layoff. Behind her it could any of all of the rest, so its a good race to go deep and take a complete shot against Violent Times.
Race 6
Morocco is 1 for 20 lifetime, that win in 2017, and generally looks dangerous on the turn but hangs late, hence his record. I dont see the class drop being enough to get him over the top, and his speed numbers have been gradually declining. Mott is a great trainer, but he cant seem to get this one to go.
Florida Cotton has one win and is now a 5yo, yet he has hit the board in 10 of 13 tries. He is Morocco with a shade more grit, but while he is gritty, he is a one speed kind who also drives hard off his front end and has suspect confirmation up front. He missed almost 7 months coming into his last start, a decent 2nd, but now comes back in 8 weeks, and returns in a claimer at the same level after being taken by Falcone, off many 2nd place finishes. He has red flags all over and while he does have good speed numbers, he is not difficult to go against. He cuts back a furlong, but seems to run the same at any distance....good enough to earn, not good enough to win.
That leaves the rest, any of which will be a price and are viable if you get past the top 2.
Race 7
Sonoma Storm takes the price plunge from 35 to 16, after racing just 12 days ago. In that race, she ran out for a solid pocket position, stayed in and followed a bomb longshot who wired them, while they werent running that fast, she dropped the bit mid turn and backed away. I dont see the class drop as good enough. The distance appears to be her issue, and she runs the same distance as last time. Completely go against her.
Uncommon Factor has run 3 times at the meet and has yet to make the top 5, her speed numbers worse each time. She goes back to turf here, and gets blinkers and a slight price tag drop as Walder, a top trainer, seaches for an answer. That answer could be a trip to West Virginia in a 5k maiden claimer, but we shall see. She will have to do better, and her starting issues also dont help her cause. She did finish 2nd once in the summer, so she has some hope I guess.
Dillons Kitty is a one speed type, makes her 3rd lifetime start, back on grass again, goes longer, and shows some hope as she looks to find the right distance, surface and class. If the top 2 fail and they look like they can, she is a solid price option. She is another slicing her claiming tag.
Rucia Mora has had some bad posts, and now gets a more favorable one, cuts back to the distance she started her career at, and gets a longshot jockey who is heady with this type. Another good price option with signs that make her viable.
Enoughandthensome keeps fiddling with the distance, had a troubled trip 2 back, a trainer who seems to right the ship when it looks like its going to the bottom of the ocean, takes a moderate class drop and goes 3rd start on the turf after only racing on dirt before that. Another with a shot at a price and with a jockey who can bring in a bomb on this kind.
Any of the others if they were to parade good and take unusual betting patterns are viable under those circumstances.
Race 8
Is a motley crew I will pass on. Hate them all equally.
Race 9
Wildwood Dancer is the obvious heavy chalk as he goes for 4 straight. He is a 9 time winner, 24 of 34 itm, and he comes to run every time. He is excitable and acts up going into and in the gate, and that will come back to bite him one of these times. Especially if he wants the lead and one of the longshots wants to hook him and take them both down the drain. This is a reasonably salty bunch and he is likely to get picked off by one or two of them in deep stretch.
Star Juancho, or Dupree, the stablemate of the chalk, look like the most likely suspects, but others can also trip out. If you go against the chalk, go fairly deep as this could be a shit show type of race. There are a lot of crafty jockeys in this race who know how to work the field and make a late move to get the money in this type of scenario.
Race 10
Wide open bunch in a big field. Post parade and odds board will give more clues and nobody is out of the mix in what could be a big price finale. Until they all are seen, its a fools game to sort this bunch on paper.
