Thursday, June 18, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 18, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 on Dont Rush in the 2nd
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Float On By in the 10th
Best Place Bet:$10 on Arrakis  in the 1st
Best Show Bet: $10 on Magic Shelley in the 4th

Worst Win Bet:  $10 on El Diablo Hall in the 2nd
Race 1 $10 place on Arrakis
Race 2  $10 win on Dont Rush
Race 3 $10 win on Demand An Answer
Race 4  $2 exa box, 1,2,6, $10 show on Magic Shelley
Race 5  
Race 6  
Race 7  
Race 8  
Race 9
 Race 10  $10 win on Float On By

MS---minor shot
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watchIng for a future play

Race 1

Overall synopsis: I would avoid the heavy chalk here. Both that one and the next likely one. So, I am going to a reasonable price for the win, and a much bigger, riskier one for 2nd. It's a risky play, as you expect with these types. Worked well on Tuesday. It doesn't always. You take your chances in a maiden trot at any track. I'd rather go down on a price than a heavy chalk in these types of races.

Probable Favorite: MY WAY THE HIGHWAY

LCARRAKIS has developed into a very solid leaver, one who can also carry it if he is raced conservatively. A Mac is not known for that, and he pulled first up while sitting in a good spot last time and backed up right away as the pace picked up sharply from the half. Even he figures it out eventually. If he can get away good and sit any kind of trip, this one has developed enough to have a legit shot here at a reasonable price. The chalk likely takes serious money, so that means price on this guy. I'd want 9-2 minimum. I should get that. Has a shot.  

LCJ N RYDER draws bad again, and is up against it. However, he was in a Grassroots, and got 2nd in a starter stakes series at London. He has some go, and if enough of these run, and he isn't one of them, he could be away better than most do with this post. Very longshot chance in with favorites who could easily disappoint.   

 Play Against:

has trotted two strong miles, from behind, and now has taken her time down to the point she will be heavily bet. I don't think she justifies that yet. She is on my radar for sure, but I view her as a better play against tonight than play. Risk/reward. If she behaves, and we have no reason to think she wont, she is on the ticket for sure. For the win, and I not sold yet.

HALO EFFECT  did not make a good appearance on the track last time and raced poorly. Like many Andover Hall's her talent comes with baggage of the mental kind. Short price off her racelines and I will take her action. Even if she does behave, a few in here look better than her. 

The rest:

NSMARKETS UP---did not impress me in how she trotted first time I have seen her. She had no go and didn't look like she wanted to chase them. She might improve over time, but currently she will not get my attention until she shows me she is a racehorse. Based on her racelines and her first over this track, she is better off at KD or Rideau until she shows a whole lot more.

MSTORTOLA SUNRISE---shows two recent breaks, and last time went to Georgian and backed into a win with a very soft last quarter. Can't see him being dangerous as is. Another who is likely a B track horse.

NSMUSCLES ROUSEY---read the program. Nuff said. Next! 

MSINGE---heads to the big track tonight as the unknown. Most of those Michigan fair trotters are horrid and few stay trotting all the way, so its easy to get wins and make a buck. The water is very much deeper here. Has to be seen, but I am very skeptical.  The last quarters are not good.

NSP L ICABOD---cannot be touched as is. Dupuis has no issue putting very green trotters on the track and letting them run while they learn the game. I need monster odds on those types, and with his history, even then I would be very choosy. I choose to pass on this one.  

NSFEATURED ILLUSION --- 10 hole for an 0 for 11 horse trained by a guy with a history of bringing horses here who don't belong to see if they belong. Some do, most do not. Until I see otherwise, this one is one of the "nots". 

Race 2

Overall synopsis: If the likely fave steps up in his 2nd start and is as good as he has shown he can be, he is the one to beat. He does have trip issues possibly here, but that is where a high end, intelligent driver comes into play. I probably would not touch him if he has a suspect pilot. The rest don't seem up to his level at this point, but are capable enough if something goes wrong on his way to picture time.

Probable Favorite: DONT RUSH

DONT RUSH its very tough to get a read on this guy. He was very well spotted last time to simply trot an easy mile and pick them off as he pleased. CC didn't ask him to do anything more than he needed to to win by as little as he had to safely. Old school type of racing. It seems like he should have at least one more second in the bag, and that would be enough to take these. Others in here appear to be all out and working hard to make that kind of speed. The only concern would be road trouble. If he gets away last or 2nd last, he is at the mercy of cover or others who might run in front of him and make him check up for a bit. That being said, I suspect CC will roll him out and try to get away at least 4th or 5th and then either blast move to the front, or be on the move, out and going and take his chances. Top call, but I wouldn't accept a very short price. I'd be looking at 8-5 as my cutoff point, and above 2-1 is much better value. He doesn't strike me as an even money horse at this point with these.  

LCCHILLER ICE  at times, this guy shows the type of speed that makes him a big time prospect and have serious upside. With that, comes some baggage, which include he is very hesitant at the gate and he will run a few times before he learns the game with a few starts more under his belt. If anything for a price is likely to take my top choice, I think it is him, and I will use him in some capacity to allow for that. He could also jump it off at the gate and be a total non factor. Watch him parade, he will likely give you some info on which he could be tonight. 

MSWINNING WIZARD drew bad last time, went parked the mile and finished evenly to some pretty nice horses. Now, he is back inside and showed some pretty nice ability last year, although he wasn't very steady and made some breaks. He is hard to read at this point, but I will slot him 3rd best and watch closer this time to see where he is at. He might be the type that just pops and then goes on a good run. When that starts, I don't know. He did win the Gold at London in 57. That isn't anything to discount.

 Play Against:

EL DIABLO HALL certainly knows how to win races and make money. But he is now going after others who know how to do the same, but show more overall speed and a lot more finish than he does. I think he meets his match with these, and this test leads them to go back to the Grassroots and milk him for every cent they can get. I don't see a Gold colt here, while I think others in here are either that or on the fence to be that. He isn't, in my view.

The rest:

MSKADABRASNEWRECRUIT---got the typical Randy steer last time, saving all the ground and tipping out very late to pick off the drifting chalk who was already spent anyway. That said, you can't take anything away from how he raced and beat a pretty nice horse. He could do it again, but I'm thinking he is overbet and I like others better. I'd use him in a minor way in the Pick 3, but only as a cover. I don't think he is the winner here.   

MSTOP DOLLAR---beat a very soft and suspect bunch of one speed types last time by staying away from a crazy speed battle and just moving late to pass them while they were backpeddling. That wont cut it here with many of these, even the ones I view as hard to like tonight. Since he has broken his maiden, he has not impressed. I am still not. Pass.  

 MSJA EL STORM---was okay at London--just okay--but got the parking ticket in his first start here and then tagged along and just took his speed down last time. Like many in here, he is both a prospect and a work in progress. Minor player and shot in here, but I like too many others to go to him. Another I am watching closely. His time will come. 

MSCALL ME RICHARD---has faced some tough customers so far this year, and he does again. I think there is some talent there, and he will gradually be a player with these on some level. Currently, he just doesn't go enough when it counts. He was no match for an under wraps, barely driven winner last time who he meets again, and others who look  as good as that one on paper. Can't see any way he can beat them all, and he is a longshot to make the ticket as well. Watching for signs he can bring a price at one point and deliver. Tonight, he brings the price, but I don't see any follow through.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Not a stellar bunch. Whatever stays trotting and can finish even a bit will likely be the winner. I have one in mind for that, but its not a bearcat either, as you would expect from this class. Lots of maiden trotters lately. Tough handicapping to say the least, but prices galore if you get one.

Probable Favorite: CINCINNATI MISS

DEMAND AN ANSWER  I will go to this one as my top call for a bit of a price. I just don't like any of the others for a variety of reasons, but this guy seems to be coming along. To this point, he has kept trotting in races, a problem he had last year. He is another, like many these days, that seems better with the trotting hopples. 
The trainer change seems to have helped, which is something I noted I was watching for when he surfaced this year. Now, he needs to add the speed to the stability.  He drops out of the Sire Stakes and chased a serious colt last time who is way beyond his reach at this stage. Foolish entry, but he is back now where he belongs. I'd want 5-1 to take my shot. 7-1 would be better. Anything less and I pass on him..and the rest. 

MSWATCHSTEEL RESERVE---might be something, but its his first start of the year and I expect CC to race him easy, attempt to close and finish strong. Likely makes the ticket, but not for the win. Solid show bet if the pool dictates that. I think the chalks are suspect here.

MSCINCINNATI MISS--- I list her for 3rd, but I am suspicious. She was better last time, but still doesn't trot right and Randy holds her together. She might be good enough with this silky soft bunch to get away with that, but she could also be a runner if she is any worse and he doesn't baby her this time. No play for me in any way.

 Play Against:

MSJENALEAH  looked terrible last time before the recall and just as bad when she managed to hold it together to the half. She is an easy book in my view. I am not sold her one good race was anything but a fluke for now. 

The rest:

MSWATCHSTOKED---puts the trotting hopples on for the race after the decision was made that he needed them and he got around safely qualifying. now he has to go faster. I suspect the goal tonight is to get him around clean and take a second or two off his time. He has some breeding and is one to watch for the time he can get his act together. 

MSDRINKSONTHEHOUSE---got around better than usual last time, but I'm still not sold he is solid. At least one more time for me, and I want to see him look good doing it. He has not to date. He is ticking time bomb territory every time the gate pulls away.  

NSMURS SON---0 for 12 maiden off almost a month now. Can't see him. 

NSBALLYKEEL BOMBER ---3 weeks off, vet scratch sick, post 8, Per driving, marginal to begin with. I will stop there. That's plenty.

NSPILGRIMS JOURNEY--- bad post, form and has not showed he can go with these to this point. 

NSROSES IN THE RAIN-ran at the start last time and now has post 10. Nuff said.

Race 4

Overall synopsis: Not sold on the chalk and others are suspect as well. I will list a few who could step up, some for a big price, others for a mid range price. I wouldn't go near faves here. I will actually toss the two likely faves and go with the next 4 or 5 I like. Risk/reward. If I get there, I can spread where I need down the line with a lot of value aboard if I get there.

Probable Favorite: MACH MAGIC

SO RAVEN  is my lukewarm top call. I was hoping for a price from the 9 hole with others taking action, but reading the sentiment around, I could see ending up with 9-2, and I don't think that is near enough. She looks live, but still has to work for it, and pass them all from a likely tough spot. Good race to play many and get to race 5 alive in the pick 4. 

LCVOODOO CHARM  paced some nice miles in Quebec last year and made good money doing it. She got run into in her first qualifier, came right back and paced in 56 and now is in to go. She didn't win a race last year, so while she appears to be good enough to contend with NW2, she still fits a straight maiden. Huge edge for her if she is as live as she appears. I could have easily made her my top choice.

MSTAILWIND HANOVER  0 for 13, but very close to breaking through. She was the winner last time, but she ran in again enough that she just lost a shade of momentum and the winner slid up to outhead her. Running in is her reality, and the best you can hope for is she is clear and can get a few lengths to withstand the backfield when she has to be steadied. Her time will come. I like others better tonight, but I'd certainly toss her onto my pick 4. 

 Play Against:

MSMACH MAGIC was bet off her breeding and fast final quarter in the qualifier..but when she had to work for it in the 3rd last time, it was clear she was going nowhere and was well beaten. These types get better, but she might need at least one more, and I see her being bet heavily tonight on the angle that she has figured it out. She has a shot, but will be overbet in my view. I will take that action. I like a few others better for a price and a shot. 

The rest:

MSPUT YOUR BAD ON---will likely be a solid B track type soon. She doesn't have the go to win this class, and would have to luck into a pretty soft trip to make the ticket.  

MSGLAMOUR SEELSTER---first time Jereme's Jet filly who sat B track fractions in the qualifier and came home just okay. Unless she is better than her breeding and her first on track performance, she could be the type to live in this class if McNair doesn't take her to Clinton, Grand River or Hanover to rectify that. Pass.  

MSNURSE MOLLY---looks like a cripple when she is on the track, but goes with it for now. If I see her go like that one more time but pace fast and start to draw chalk money, I will be looking to beat her. For tonight, she is a no play and watch to see which way she goes. I wouldn't put a cent in her direction.  

NSNICE TRIP---unless she is cat and mousing this field with that qualifier, she is not competitive at this point.  

MSTERRORCAM---has all the adjustments now but still paces in the 54 to 55 range, which probably just isn't quite good enough. I had high hopes for this one, but she has just not panned out. Pass, and watch for the B track move soon.  

NSGOT SOME SPARK---looked cripple lame her last two. 10 hole. Total pass.   

Race 5

Overall synopsis: In a race like this, the time of year matters. At this point, some horses are trying to find past glory, others are improving, some are currently very sharp and in top form, while others have aspirations their owners think are valid but likely get their heart broken. Getting all that right, and putting it together is how you make money on these races. Later in the year, some might be tired, others might be completely spent, or lame, while others may be putting it all together. Its a weekly grind in this Stakes program. This week, I go to class meets form meets better starting spot.

Probable Favorite:YOURE MAJESTIC

MAGIC SHELLEY  is bred to be talented and fast, and she certainly is. She won the final of the Celias Counsel when she finally began to put it together, then drew horrible in the SBOA and got what she could. A much better spot here likely lands her mid pack, and that gives her a legit shot. She will need to step up one level further, but I think its there, and of course, with the other contenders, a price should be there also. I'd be looking for at least 6-1, and I'd say 8-1 is reasonable. Top call.  

YOURE MAJESTIC  has gradually stepped up this year, and has been handled carefully to make sure she loses that bad actor habit she had at the gate last year. That big burst of speed is still there, and tonight she tackles the types she could handle last year when she did behave. She looks to have a very profitable and successful year with these and has a big shot tonight. I go to my top choice for the price, but she will take a lot of beating. 

ELEGANT SERENITY  beat up easily on completely inferior condition types and now moves back in with serious stakes fillies. She is in the mix, but I'm not certain she is ready to beat these. She can though. She will need to go two seconds faster now and do it working for it. I think she is just a shade below these currently, but she could go forward based on her breeding. One of several I'd use in the pick4. 

 Play Against:

DANIELLE HALL  is obviously the big wildcard here. You could give her the pass for the first start, but last time she trotted fine but had no go. She could be one of those 2yo sensations that don't come back good. They got the money at 2 either way. Now, she continues to get bet only on her rep as a superstar last year. I will go against her again. At some point she is likely to come back to what she was, much like Riveting Rosie did at the end last year. That could be 2 months from now, or it could be tonight. Or, not at all. For tonight, I like others. 

The rest:

NSAMOUREUSE HANOVER--- was not up to these last year, but has returned this year and improved a bit each time, last time gutting out a first over score when the faves all blew up and the rest were not up to par. Certainly not any close to even the ability of the worst one in this race. She can make the ticket if things go her way, but nothing more. She might be this type come fall. Might. 

NSTHE GRAND FILLY---seems to have a lot of talent, and was aimed at the best at 2. She did okay at times, but wasn't top shelf, nor did she finish off the season good. It has taken 3 qualifiers, well spread out, to get back to racing. That is not a good sign. I think this is a tough spot to start out when you consider who the top 4 contenders are here. 

NSJUANITAS FURY---seems to be coming around,  but while she has gotten 2nd the last two, she is still not doing it right. She looked a bit sounder last time, but it appears to me the hard miles at two have stung her. I am waiting to see if she comes back around. Most do. Some never do. This is another tough spot for her, based on her current form. She looks more like a Grassroots filly at this point. Pass.  

 NSYANKS BALL GIRL---I don't know if I would even play her from the inside in a soft Grassroots division. Pretty ambitious entry here if you asked me. She is basically a maiden at this track facing bearcats. I will look for her back at nw2 if she doesn't win a Grassroots first. Looking at 100-1 plus. 

NSMEADOW SEELSTER---has been very sharp for a couple of months now, and gradually improving from a decent overnight filly to a very competitive stakes mare. She was a solid second best to Stubborn Belle in the SBOA, and trotted as much as she can to beat the balance in the wake of Muscle Baby Doll, who she clearly is no match for at this point. She meets others here of similar, but perhaps slightly less ability and current form, and I might like her a lot more if she has a better post. I go elsewhere tonight, but its a long season. Let's see if she can hold form for a better spot, perhaps a Grassroots or a better post in a softer split next time.  

Race 6

Overall synopsis: Fairly wide open in this one, and I could see something reasonably illogical getting it done and sending the bettors scrambling back to the program trying to figure out how they missed that one. You see that sometimes with these types. I picked a few with big holes but just enough to suggest they have some minor shot if all things go their way. Alternatively, I avoid the logical ones who should get it done but find ways to lose. That is my approach. Not how most do it here.

Probable Favorite: FOREVER JUST

LCAMERICAN PAPARAZZI  I am looking for some kind of equipment change. He was dangerous trying to follow and clearly would need to be drivable to have a shot. Speed appears to be there, and I expect some kind of a price here. 

LCTOMITTA BAYAMA  is making a very ambitious move to this track and would blow up the tote board if he were to score. I will include him in my pick 4 on that angle, with others. I don't love him. I don't hate him. He bombs, I have others. He could do it, that is my thought, so I will use him. He is a complete unknown to me.

MSFOREVER JUST  looks solid with these, big drop, but I don't like him for the win. I just see him as the beatable type in here when there are at least a few who can get it done. I think you get a short price. I'd have to use him in the pick 4, but only as a cover in case he lucks out and I don't want him beating me.These types lose all the time in this class, others get sour on them and then they get it done at 7-1 or higher. I'd wait for that to play out if it goes that way.

 Play Against:

BRINGHOME THEBLUE raced great off a perfect trip last time and shot the hole when room opened up. These are tougher, and he isn't as likely to be as lucky. His price will still likely be in the same range. I cashed in on him last time, this time I go against him.  

The rest:

NSHAIL THE TAXI---hasn't gotten it done in this class when it was very soft, now meets a few droppers and tougher ones who are competitive above but have missed the money somehow. It all adds up to a big pass on this guy. He missed the boat, now he stays ashore will something else sets sail. 

MSTOPCORNERTERROR---I've seen enough of this one to know he finds ways to lose, get beat, show up late, get boxed in, hang at the last second. Whatever way you can find to almost win and not win, he does it. That is why he is racing fairly good but fits this class. If I have room, he will be my last toss onto the pick 4 ticket. Otherwise, I will roll the dice against him.  

NSUFDRAGONS ROCKET---is one I will avoid period on this circuit based on what I have seen from him before. He could be okay if spotted exactly right at the B's. No shot here.  

MSREASONABLE FORCE---went first off the claim for Steve Hudon, who is extremely aggressive and while he raced good, that cost him down the lane. I think this is a bit tougher, and I will wait on this one for the price and return. He has a very good ROI as a driver/trainer on his own stock, and I am very mindful of that. Tonight, I gamble he doesn't come back to bite me, as he has a few times.  

NSSWEET COLT OF MINE---in super deep here. He would shock me. 

NS OLDFRIENDSKENTUCKY---if he wins this, I quit horse racing forever. My world would just be too upside down to carry on.  

Race 7

Overall synopsis: Can't say that I like anything in here at all, and really had to search to find 3 choices that might get it done. All of those are pretty suspect also. If I played the pick 4, I'd be using about 6 or 7, and will list exclusions as no shots in the rest section. Any of the balance has as good a shot as any of the rest. Don't be stingy here. Take many.

Probable Favorite:TON OF LUCK

ALOT OF SENSE I have two angles on this one. First, I am looking for a post 9 or two to hit tonight, and this one fits the bill of possible suspects. That doesn't make me play her on just that variable. When right, this one can beat these from any part of the track and trip. She isn't right often, but these are so bad top to bottom, you have to consider her. Pick 4 must use for me, but one of many. 

MSBYE BYE MICHELLE  tried to close from out of it last time, but 3 high on the turn at Grand River is a very tough spot. She gets her nose back on the gate this time, and shows good leaving from the rail, as well as beating these twice this spring. In the mix. Use on the pick 4. Bad win value unless you get 8-1, which you are unlikely to get. 

MSMAKE WAY  finds multiple ways to lose, as per her sire, and while I list her 3rd, I don't use her in the pick 4 to win. I have seen enough of her act. She can beat me at this point. I am okay with that. She is the rat of rats. Queen rat in fact.  And at this point, a horrific claim for 22k plus GST. It will take a long time getting 3rd and 4th money less expenses to ever get that back. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

LC MISSEVIL---at one time last year, she was a serious prospect and thought of as a Gold Sires Stakes filly. Something went wrong and she has seen a lot of trainers now. She was outclassed last time, but her race 2 back was good enough for these. She would be my 4th one if I had listed one, and easily could have been my winner pick. Use her in the pick 4 or risk her waking up and stinging you. She will, its just a matter of when.  

NSTON OF LUCK---draws better this time, but she has been locked on a line bad for a long time. That hurts her when it counts, and it leads other drivers to not want her in front of them or let her in the hole..or go to the top. She is hard to like based on all of that, and she is an exclusion for me.  

MSSUCKITUPBUTTERCUP---Jim Ritchie is...and has always been, a very good trainer of these types of horses. He showed that by turning her around in one start from the 10 hole..going to the top and bottoming these out, coasting home an easy bombs away winner. Then she was put in with conditioned mares, and she was over her head..followed by meeting optional claimer mares, some of whom were not claimers and she was again overmatched. These are her people. Legit shot at a price, like many of these, and pick 4 includer.   

MSABSOLOOTLY HOT---is hard to read off her lines. She has gone with higher tagged ones, but one of those was the chalk here last week and she hung. That is one this one can't seem to beat. I will use that is my reference. I think she is short on speed, and that is mostly to do with her East Coast breeding. Some of those step up anyway. I don't think she is one of those. 

MSTHRILL CHASER---went the very long mile last time and that left her empty when it counted. She seems to have lost the edge she had a month ago. Pass on her. You have to make choices in these types of races. I pick others to hang my pick 4 hat on.   

MSDELIRIUM---is one I can't use and will avoid and exclude here. She can't seem to win off any trip, and the post position improvement didn't help last time. She only needed to finish in 30 flat to win her last and she could barely hold 5th. Nuff said. Jody sends her to the top, I hope whatever I like isn't following her.  

NSKNEE SLAPPER---post 10. She is dog lame, but goes with it. As I mentioned several times, she stays in the hunt, but the lameness costs her at the end when you add it all up. I stay away from her and she does not scare me at all from the 10 hole. From post 1, I might have added her in.  

Race 8

Overall synopsis: Strictly a 2 horse race, and I prefer my top choice. Both are very legit. I go with the one that gets to the top and covers less ground, and has clear track. If the other one can get a decent trip, she might pass her. Tough call. Price will be close to the same on both.

Probable Favorite:STUBBORN BELLE

STUBBORN BELLE  Sharp and classy, makes her own trip. Can she hold off the 2nd choice when it counts? Probably, but it could go either way. I think you use her and the 2nd choice to get by this race in the pick 4 and find value elsewhere. Those that single here, half will be out when they are on the wrong one. That creates some value for those who don't. 

MUSCLE BABY DOLL Slow start. traffic trouble. That could be the comment after the fact. Or, it could be decent start and stalked to the turn, engaged the leader and they dueled down the lane with .....winning. If that happens, who wins? I don't know. I don't think anybody does at this point.  

 Play Against:

the rest 

The rest:

the rest---I don't see any of these being dangerous enough to the top 2 to bother rating them. Another day, when they find a softer spot, I will.   

Race 9

Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite:COTTONWOOD CREEK

LITTLE MISS SPORTY  Is one I call for the big upset. I generally don't play anything from her trainer, but if I get a price and the horse shows me a bit of talent, I am willing to take a shot in the right spot. Her last was okay, and she was decent enough last year. I want odds obviously here. Looking for 15-1.

MSWINDSUN CHANEL  is coming along and has a fair shot here. I don't love her, but she seems to hang around and will wake up at some point. I don't know when. It could be tonight. 

 Play Against:

MSCOTTONWOOD CREEK   I'm not sold that she is much better than a maiden now, and might take a few to get up to speed with these. 

MSSOUTHWIND GEISHA  made an uncharted break in stride two back, but won anyway. She wasn't as good last time at Barrie, and while she is legit when pacing and has a shot here, I think her price will be too short. Risk/reward. 

The rest:

NSLITTLE MISS ARTIST --- I didn't like her at all last year when she won, and I still don't.  

MSWATCHMAGIC OF BRUSSELS ---have to watch this one. Not sure if she is legit with these.   

NSOUTLIER-- not better than a cheap claimer in my view. Pass with some of these. 

NSLADY SANTANA---way over her head. 

NSOOH SHESA BADLANDS---hard to see her being dangerous with these from the outside.  

Race 10

Probable Favorite: ARTIAWITCHTOYOU

FLOAT ON BY I am playing this one on the turnaround. She just seems a better mare to me than she has shown. Obviously the chalk looks tough and legit, but I view her as beatable and this is one of them I think can if she shows up. Big if with her lately, but I think the talent is there. Jody wins this type of race quite a bit. Top call, and I want a price, at least 10-1.

LIVING HISTORY  Looked fabulous breaking her maiden but has encountered problems since. These types sometimes hit a wall and then come back on. She is the other one I could see picking up the favorite. Either of these two are the ones I go to.

 Play Against:

MSWANDA BAYAMA   simply does not look good on the track, and while she couldn't beat maidens here, she is now in with nw2 types, and not soft ones either. She is very hard to like.

ARTIAWITCHTOYOU   I think her likely very short price justifies taking her action. She could beat me, but I will take that chance. She doesn't strike me as a bearcat and she is going to be bet like she is.

The rest:

NSDANCINGATNIGHT--- lucked into the win last time. Moves up now. These are miles tougher. 

NSABBIJADE HANOVER--- bit player in here. Not tonight. 


MSMO MOLLY BLUE CHIP---has not panned out yet. Can't see her.  

NSARRIVISTA HANOVER---luck ran out last time. No shot. 

NSSHESAGAMEMAJOR---10 hole and she is not sharp. Pass.  


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