Friday, May 29, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 29, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 win on Intended Style  in the 4th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $6 win on Inner Peace in the 6th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Intended Style  in the 4th
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Betty And The Jets in the 5th
Best exactor bet:
Longshot exactor bet:none
Best Exotic Bet: :
Worst Bet:  Ariella to win. $10

 Race 1


Mass Rail             $6 to win
Pinky The Intern  $6 to win

Mass Rail ran at the start last time and was out of it. She didn't look good at all the time before and possibly something was bugging her, which is why Trevor forked her over to Moreau to begin with. I will go with him jamming her right back in on 7 days as a sign he might have found it, at a price I will take this time. She was way too short on the board the last 2. At 3-1 or 7-2 this time, I will take a stab she is sorted out. 

Pinky The Intern had both talent and breaking issues last year at 2. She seems to be on the right track now, and driver Jones continues to hold the lines tonight. Her first this year was fairly good, even if she was over her head and overmatched against the winner of that race. She took 3 seconds off her qualifier, and if she can maintain that, and possibly shave a couple of lengths more, she could be the one if the top choice blows up again.

 Play Against:

Ariella Was certainly impressive last time and scored. She is now fresh out of maidens and in with some who have gone more than she has ever encountered. I don't doubt she has it in her, but maybe not right away. With Zeron away, Randy gets the call and that is an issue. Zeron obviously knows her, as he trains her. Randy is good with young ones too, but there is no replacement for sitting behind a young trotter day in and day out. I will go with one in this race who fits that profile.

The rest:

 Halo Effect---3rd start here,and she is coming along, but faces winners this time, and that is just too tough for her  at this stage. Likely just another race on the experience ladder for her. Watching.

  Oh My Magic---has not yet shown she can handle the WEG types, and even in a maiden she would be suspect. Add winners and Per's hands into the mix, and I will pass on her until I see a better fit.

Alfa Mersadies---ran last time after a decent effort the time before with maidens. Watching her for signs of maturity, but again, these aren't maidens. She appears in deep tonight.

Ladyone---continues to show just enough to suggest she will be an okay, spotty performer with Grassroots fillies at one point. Currently, she looks like a bit player with these and I can't back her until she steps up. She just doesn't do enough when she is asked for more. 57 appears all she has right now, and that wont win this race.

Fancy Step---doesn't look anywhere near good enough to go with the top half of this field.

Between The Cheats--has yet to beat 2 minutes, even when she doesn't run, which is about half the time also. Impossible to like. 

Mets Life--bad post, bad form, no speed. Nuff said.


 Race 2


Shutthefrontdoor           $6 to win
Mystique Beach Bum     $6 to win

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR Although Mike Sinclair is a very good trainer and is playable on anything, he isn't Moreau. This mare just seems to need that something extra Moreau sometimes brings to those who don't live up to what you would expect from them. Because Drury sticks with Carmen here, and Fillion and Trevor are away, Plante handles her. He is well known as a guy who likes the top. On the chooch here. Goes all the way? We will see. 

Mystique Beach Bum chas really come around from the mare who was struggling to get it done in a 10 claimer at London in the winter. Whatever it is that is working, its working. If my top choice fails, she is viable as the next value play in line, with Condren, who is still as good as any of them on a nightly basis. She is a trip horse, and has one decent brush, and also good gate speed if she can get ahead of others. I will leave it to Condren to do what he does best.

 Play Against:

Doctor Terror ran last time when trying stakes fillies, and shows back up with McNair aboard. She won the Blossom final and beat Sire Stakes types at Pocono, so she is likely to take money again, and she is in the mix. But, I think she is beatable enough that somebody takes her. Must use for the triactor, but good play against for the win.

The rest:

Island View---Is about as far over her head as you can be with this bunch. No shot.

Your My Secret--as mentioned before, she has hit the class and speed wall with these and doesn't look dangerous enough for anything more than a lucky trip to sneak onto the ticket. If that. I suspect a conditioned claimer is in her near future. She might be okay for Georgian if spotted right.

ONYOURMARKNATAVA---bombed away a notch lower, but hasn't shown she can go with these. She ran last time and appears at her limit in 53, which doesn't likely win this race. Bit player if she stays at it.

Call Me Maybe---Got it done last time off a perfect trip by JJ. No JJ this time. McClure is not my fave driver and I can't see it working out the same way. A few tougher ones in here this time also. Pass.

MAPPOS MOENHAY---Has been off a month sick, and didn't compete well in her last two anyway. She is another who won notches lower, but appears to have hit the wall. Total pass.

AN ANGEL SHES NOT---Has some upset potential for team Carmen/Drury. Post hurts her here, and also holding her form. I'm not sold she will be there when it counts. I go elsewhere. Even a soft 2nd quarter last time was not enough. She isn't even likely to get that here. Until she proves she can work for it and fight them off, she is a no play at this level.

 Race 3



Jetpedia is about as close to a slam dunk here as you will find. He only has to behave to daylight this bunch. Likely he is 1-9, and I will key him in an exotic somehow. His class and speed appear far beyond this bunch. Far beyond. 

 Play Against:

The entire field. 

The rest:

ITS HUW YOU KNOW---has not shown me enough to suggest he makes the ticket here. Others look better at this point.

Wire Me Cash---comes back after two months off and 2 lines where he ran at the start. Longshot specialist Hudon doesn't always follow the script, so, if he is ready, he races hard to try and get 2nd money. I'd use him.

Stay In Touch---finished the year poorly last year, qualified only evenly twice and then raced very flat. At this point, she can't be liked for any kind of play. She will have to show me some kind of turnaround before I pay attention to her. Not tonight for me. She might be a bleeder the way she finishes her miles. If I see lasix added, that would be an indicator to me to take a look at her.

Grand Padanno---appears to a work in progress project for team B, and as such, I keep watching. Tonight, I look for signs of moving forward, but not for 2nd money, which is what the field is racing for. He is finishing just a bit better every time , so that is something to keep watching for. I want to see him do it when he is actually with the field, not 10 lengths behind it.

Pridecrest---at best,  needs one . At worst, is overmatched by more than just the winner. Pass and will continue to do so until I see where he fits on the class ladder.

Call Me Richard---Is likely the 2nd one on the ticket. His rapidly progressing form and finishing ability, coupled with the crafty Condren tonight makes him the play there. He is also a proven stakes winner, which is more than most of these can say.

One Direction---has a world of talent,  and a crazy mind to go with it. I wouldn't be surprised to see him blow up again, as Jones is still being very careful with him. I am still not sold he can behave consistently at this stage, or ever.  He is still Etruscan Jr. to me. 

Macho Mass---beat a bunch of suspect maidens and then tagged along last time with better. These are even better than those . Add post 9 and Per, and I will go against him.

 Race 4


Intended Style  $10 to win, place, show

Intended Style Could not be sharper. He comes to play every week, has the gate speed to make his own trip and carries it most if not all the way just about every time. Randy and Johnson do well together and I expect him to go coast to coast or be in the deuce and popped early if need be. Best bet of the night. These are his people and they are even a touch softer than last time.

Genesee If any of these are likely to take down my choice, its this guy. He has the tactical game to be in position and on a good day, enough to pass them all. He hung just a shade last time, but today is another day. Minor shot. But a shot nonetheless. I'd use him in the pick 4.

 Play Against:

Rave On Is dangerous enough. But would be a lot more dangerous if he could leave and was in an 8. With these, he just doesn't have enough to get there. I will play against him. Its a risk/reward play. He is possible. 

Jac Spade wins every now and then, but everything has to go his way. He gets along great with CC, and while Byron is okay enough, I will go against him here. I just prefer others better. He is likely to be overbet. The move inside shortens his price, but I don't think it helps him greatly. He has never been a fast leaver. 

The rest:

SAULSBROOK PEACH---draws double digits every time, hardly wins with better horses and is likely a bit player for 8. Tonight, I can't see him with some live ones in here.

Bagel Man---completely tripped out for 8 last time, and was full value for the win. But, these are tougher, and he isn't likely to win if he tries to get that trip again, which he likely needs. Even for 8, that bunch was soft last time. For 12, this bunch isn't. 

PRISM SEELSTER---looks overmatched in here to me for the win. He has never shown the overall speed some of these go. He has a shot at the ticket if others bomb out. His last was not good, and those were phony 20's who are really marginal 5's.

Hollywood Ham---might be the best he has ever been, and instead of cashing in on that, his trainer/owner has decided to jack him up in class. It is therefore no surprise that her charges almost never win and her percentage is microscopic. Pass.

Curator---If he is sound enough to race and make it past the track vet tonight, I suppose he could pull it off. If he does, I will not be cashing. He is just too risky for even a longshot player like me to put money down on at this point. Carmen has a penchant for just tossing a lame horse out there and not caring that he is too crippled to race. I will leave it at that.

F Twenty Two---goes back in where he belongs, but draws the 10 hole and if he tries to make front, he will have company in that quest. I will leave him, but he is somewhat dangerous. How long can he hold his form? I don't know. He looked suspect last time, but maybe that was the overclassification. We will likely find out this time or next. Watching tonight. 
 Race 5


Betty And The Jets  $10 to win

BETTY AND THE JETS Gets my top call in with this relatively weak bunch of NW2. She is a Jereme's Jet, but she performs like she isn't. She appears to be more Camluck than Jereme's Jet,  as many that have that combo are. So, she might be a comer, and tonight, the price is still right. She has a shot. A legit shot. Her last quarters are night and day to her apparent breeding. If she keeps that up, she is right there with anything in this one. She also paced in 52.3 as a 2yo. That is better than anything any of these have ever showed. Top call.

 Play Against:

Tessa Seelster showed both talent and issues last year. She certainly got the worst of it last time, parked the mile, 3 high for part of it, in her first start of the year. Back in with nw2,  from the rail, she will take money and likely too much of it in my view. I will go against her here. 

Franney Love Dat finally got the maiden monkey off her back last time by beating a whack of others who cant shake that, namely Miss Sangria, who was 2nd best again that time. She would need at least 2 more seconds here, and I don't see them from her yet. I will take my chances that it isn't. And even if it was, she still has to beat them, not just keep up to them.

The rest:

JACLYN HANOVER---has never showed me enough to suggest she is going to win this class at this track. She might be playable at Grand River, which is where she is headed soon if she doesn't step up. Likely with new connections as Darling moves out the stale stock and brings in the fresh stock come Labor Day.

AINSLEYNOELLE---raced a good mile last time. Paced hard and had a shot. But like most Jereme's Jets, when the tote board came, she weakened. If not for her breeding, I might give her a pass on that trip. I can't.

Ride Away Shark---certainly can't be faulted for her last mile, but I am still not sold she shows up every week. Her breeding and most of those foals simply don't. Until she proves to me she is anything different, I avoid her. She is very inconsistent.

Nationalize---went a long trip last time, but then gave it up at the end. That is understandable. She has not proved to me yet that she has as much speed as my top choice here, so she is more likely on the bottom of the exactor or triactor, assuming that last mile didn't sting her too much. Watching tonight.

DAZZLING ROCKETTE ---draws bad again tonight and is impossible to like off her last two lines and  the class hike. Total pass.

LITTLE MISS SPORTY---shows nothing to suggest she is competitive with the top end of this field. Pass

D G NICKABOCKER---paced a big trip last time for her breeder/traine/owner and might be a viable longshot if she had drawn okay tonight. She didn't. So, I will watch to see if she is legit if she comes back next time and gets a better post.  


Race 6


Inner Peace  $6 to win

Inner Peace gets my top call, as a certain longshot with a fair amount of risk attached. He did run last time,  and he also showed some speed over a highway known as Pocono. So, who knows? He could run again, or he could behave and go down the road or follow one that does. In spite of the run last time, he trotted a 27.4 3rd split, which suggests it was just a mistake and might be due to A Mac not knowing him yet. One more week behind him, maybe now he does. I am looking at boxcars here to justify this risk. Last time was the only X we see on the page. I will give him one pass for that. He did make 26k last year and Mark Ford and A Mac's sister in law still hold an ownership stake. They must think there is a reason to keep him around and pay A Mac a training bill.

DOMEDOMEDOME  is the obvious play to double up on this bunch. Short price tonight, and while I could see her doing it, I wont play her at that price. If somehow she brought 4-1, I would think about it. I can't see that, so I will pass on her and call her for 2nd or 3rd and stick with my longshot play. In the pick 4, you'd have to use her. She is tactical.

MY KID SISTER needed to be laid off last winter and was. She was racing great and consistent to that point, and she comes back off a sharp qualifier and fast finish. She can come right off the shelf and handle these. I will just watch and see if she is better or worse, and maybe go with her next time. The two that beat her in the qualifier would be barred from the wagering in this race. So, there is that.

 Play Against:


The rest:

Wizard Of Osney---is one of those I can't like and I can't toss. She could be good, or continue to be not much but one who has just not panned out. I will watch again tonight. Better post tonight gives her a shot in my view to convince me. She can't seem to put a good start and good finish together. That usually gets harder as you move up, as it has for her. She is running out of chances.

Mandeville ---is likely to kick in any time now. He showed Sire Stakes ability last year, and maybe even Gold Potential. So far this year, he has finished very poorly in two starts. Will he turn it around? I think so. I will watch for signs of that tonight, but I can't back him until I see something that shows me he can trot to the wire with some power. He showed that last year, but is empty this year. Growing pains perhaps.

Fashion Goddess---gets the good post to work with here, but she also just does not finish well, especially when they come hard at her before the last turn. Once drivers get a sense she is the weak , slow deer in that pack , they smell blood and have no problems going after her. I can't back her for that reason. She got the soft half anyway last time, but she still packed it in.

BOP TOO THE TOP---is so illogical with this bunch that I feel I just wasted 20 seconds of my life typing this comment that I will never get back.

HOMEN DRY---won the final of the Define The World last year and is being prepped for the lucrative NYSS. He is a serious colt of ability we don't know yet. Tonight, comes late and gets a big chunk? The biggest chunk? Maybe, but not likely. I wouldn't book him though. 

Love Detective---10 hole. Another day. Maybe.

SOUTHWIND CHAMPANE---trotted a very suspect mile last time and had serious gait issues last year even when she was doing well. She will have to be seen. Her last quarters are becoming a warning sign of trouble.  ================================

Race 7


Oceanview Bindi  $6 to win

Oceanview Bindi  with this mixed bag, I will call her on the upset chance. She has had a bunch of tough trips, and she has hung in there. Things have to go her way at some point. Many in here could easily blow up, not show up or just plain give up. She could be any of those, but her price will be better and she does have big time leaving ability that might land her a trip and a chance to pounce.

Lights Go Out   was her old self last time, and thus, swooped them as you would expect her to. She was equally as good the time before, but Phil let up on her and she got beat by one on the inside he didn't see. I wont play her tonight, because she likely gets serious chalk money. She is the one to beat. If she doesn't blow back up. She does that though. Beware.

ST LADS PENNY LANE drops a shade here,  and has been off 3 weeks now. She is generally good off a rest, and has weeks where she is real good. That could happen here at a price. I will watch, but I can't play her either way. In the pick 4, I would use her. She is one of many in here who could go either way, as is usually the case with this class. Some have to go lower, others start the journey back up the mountain. 

 Play Against:

Nat A Virgin  Gets chance after chance after making excuse after excuse. Bottom line. She doesn't win and she finds ways to get beat. More of the same tonight. I will take her action. Jones back in the bike tonight only makes that more likely. He is not a professional driver. She is very hard to like until she brings a high price and maybe turns it around then.

The rest:

Miss Coco Luck---has gone way off form and cannot be played at the moment. She runs hot and cold. She is iceberg right now.

Rub N Tug---scored a notch lower off a lucky trip. In here, she is slightly over her head most nights. Very small chance. But, no chance in my view. Pass.

Wanna Rock N Roll---drops a bit, but her last 2 finishes have been very poor. Even if she is slightly better, I don't think that lands her on top. Watching for a sign for maybe next time. Pass tonight.

I GOT TO BOOGIE---makes one big move to the lead down the backside every time. Sometimes she lasts,  most times, like last time,  she does not. More of the same tonight. Triactor possible. Win, unlikely. Too many in here can go with her.

DIANNA SANTANNA---tackles experienced mares here, and since she can't beat less experienced ones, she is likely looking for 4th or 5th here from this post. Not sure where she goes on this circuit. She is between the rock and hard place now. 


Race 8



STONEBRIDGE QUEST Likely needed one last time, and also got burned by the 3rd quarter. McCabe can be noted for not having them ready to go off the shelf, so, tonight is the more likely spot for her,  in a somewhat weak bunch. Top call for me. Her early speed will really come in handy this time against most who don't have that.

 Play Against:

War Filly  her slow starts are becoming troubling as she meets tougher and tougher. She looks like one that will be 2nd and 3rd quite a bit until the fall when, if she is still sound..which is a big if, she will take them. She might win a Grassroots by then and never get the chance. I will go against her tonight for that very reason. Others just look to get the better trip. 

The rest:

OK HEAVENLY---got wiped out last time, but I'm not sold she was doing much on her own anyway. Pass and watch tonight. Others look better and sharper right now.

DEPTH MORE DEPTH---must be seen. Her racelines and gaps indicate issues that make her hard to play and rate without seeing her compete.

ABBIJADE HANOVER--beat a  terrible bunch last time and is way over her head with these. She has not shown she can beat 55 yet, and most of these will go in 53 pretty easily. No thanks.

A FELLAS SECRET---continues to be plagued by the same issues that she was when she broke her maiden. Until that is corrected, she cannot be touched.

Sam---1 for 30 something and counting. Tried the front end. Tried the back end. Tried the rail trip. How about trying Flamboro again? Nuff said.

Lady Santana ---ships in from Flamboro with very mediocre lines. She will have to be seen. Hebert does that all the time even when they show nothing. She has yet to win on this circuit.

Lady Jen---got parked the mile last time in her 3rd off the shelf. Which have all finished good last quarters while not doing much else to make use of them. Another bad post. Back of  the bus, come late for a share if she can. So far, that has not even worked. She won in 55 last year. She has not gone forward yet.

Jess Released---happen to win once as a 3yo, but is really a maiden who wouldn't beat maidens at this track facing better from the  10 hole. Zero shot tonight.

Race 9


Dublin Rose   $8 to win

Dublin Rose Paced a strong mile last time to only get picked off by a fairly sharp winner who is in a Stakes final tomorrow night. Post 8 is a challenge, but she looks better than most of these, although my 2nd choice is also in the mix. Top call. 

Evas Girl Moves up after a 1 week stay and the House that McNair built. That was after a private purchase from Peter Core and was obviously meant to go to Isaac now that he is out of the penalty box. She has a shot, but it wont be easy. She got a very soft 3rd quarter last time, and the two directly behind her at the wire would be double digit longshots in here, at best. If the top pick blows, and the other chalk isn't good enough tonight, she has a shot at a decent price. I think she gets overbet tonight, so I will just watch. Must use in the pick 4 if you play that. McNair sticks with her. That means something. Anyway it does to me.

 Play Against:

Aintsheasweetie  took some ugly steps last time coming on to the track and then raced with some grit but was bearing out horribly in the stretch. I will book that action as the bettors bet off the program and not the horse that is behind that. 

Lovely Erin the obvious heavy chalk here, looks to keep it going. She has issues, and she beat a very suspect bunch last time. She could win again, but some of these are tougher, and she is likely wearing down from whatever has been keeping her going. McNair goes to Waxman here. Not the first time lately he has ditched a live one of his to go elsewhere. Can you say, RED FLAG?

The rest:

MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS---raced good last time to be 2nd best, and knows how to win races. She could surprise here, but a few others look a cut above her. Pass tonight, but she is becoming dangerous. If she can maintain.

MOREMUNKYBUSINESS---too many good ones in here to think she takes them all down if she is even good enough to be in the mix. I am not even sure about that.

GRACIES PARADE---got wiped out  last time, but she has seemed to tail off from the mare that Zeron had turned off Dustin. I am watching for a possible night where she can re rally her form at a price. Not tonight.

SUCKITUPBUTTERCUP---took a horrendous bunch off the trainer change last time by daylighting them and bottoming them out. That wont work here. No chance.

BET ON HILL--got the soft half last time, but she couldn't convert like she did before. She is now swimming in waters that put her slightly underwater most nights. I will wait for another night to use her, and that night could be in October from the 3 hole.

UNIQUE ROCK N ROLL--moves up off an impressive score when the trainer was changed. Post 10 and the rise equalize that here. Lets see her compete to decide if she is good enough from a better post next time.


Race 10



none I can't find one that is justifiable here, or even worth bothering with as alternates. So, I will book the worst one for the lowest price, and watch the rest and rate them next time. You play the pick 4, take them all.

 Play Against:

Tailwind Hanover  has burned enough chalk money that I will take that action. She could turn it around, but is much more likely to do it again. She just doesn't steer right and the longer that goes, the more likely she keeps losing. She seemed like a prospect last year, but has not panned out.

The rest:

--not rating them this time.

Race 11


Addison Bay  $4 to win
Jackardez      $4 to win

Addison Bay  Come backs to town after a pretty decent effort, where she tried to run away and hide from some okay one at Rideau last Sunday. That almost worked and it can work here again. She has beaten far better at this track when she is on her game. She might be tonight. She isn't the same as she was a year or two ago, but she doesn't have to be. Not reliable at this point, but capable. Jackie Mo is the right type of driver for her.

JAKARDEZ  ratried her luck at Northville, but got beat by two who would daylight this bunch, in Littlesantamonica and Kayla Grace. If she can duplicate those efforts, she is right there with my top choice. Its almost a pick em between those two for me.

 Play Against:


The rest:

SHADYS M THREE---hardly ever wins, but won off the shelf to start the meet. Since then, she is back to the pack following , late closing, pick up pieces type she is noted for. That is who she is. Saftic goes elsewhere.

DAZZLE N DELIGHT---drops a shade and draws the ML fave status. Can't see that as valid, and she is more likely hunting for the bottom of the Super or high 5.

WINDSONG JACOBA---about as wildly inconsistent as they come. She could be real good, or choking down by the half, which she has down several times this year already. Can't use her,  and others just simply look better than her. Beware. She is the type that could hurt you. I would probably toss her on a pick 4 for 20 cents if I played it.

REGAL LUCK---jogged in 55 at Sarnia off a very soft half, but then was a well rated 80-1 non factor back here, which is likely accurate again for this race.

JABAS LUCK---is simply not as good as she was in the winter. She was a broodmare for  a  few year and came back to the races and was good.  She will likely have another burst. I don't see it here for the win. She could share or even be the bottom of the tri if things go her way. She does have soreness issues. Watch her post parade for that.

Machet Rocket---drops slightly, but she is 2 for 42 on the program and post hurts her, even if her form was really good...which it isn't. I will wait for a better post and one more level down to consider her. She has been a double digit also ran in her last two. More of the same here.

Windsun Kenda---continues to not get it done. Post 9 , more of the same here.

WINBAK YOUR KASH---ships back in from Flamboro and wasn't doing enough there to beat ones that would be in deep here, including Jabas Luck, who is a longshot tonight with this group. Post 10 also. Pass.