Tuesday, June 23, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 23, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 on Reckon Im Ready in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Yucatan  in the 8th
Best Place Bet:$10  on Cantabs Fortune  in the 9th
Best Show Bet: $10 on Yucatan in the 8th

Worst Win Bet:  $15 on Vegas Rocks in the 4th
Race 1  
Race 2  
Race 3  $10 show on Caviart Scarlett
Race 4  $10 win on Bad Bad Boy
Race 5  
Race 6  
Race 7 $10win, place on Reckon Im Ready 
Race 8  $10 win, show on Yucatan
Race 9 $10wp on Cantabs Fortune
Race 10  

MS---minor shot---W-
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watchIng for a future play

Race 1

Overall synopsis: I view this race as a fact finding affair. If I see something in the post parade or the board looks odd, I'd take it when it comes. Otherwise, I watch for future scores, which are always there with these type, both ways.

Probable Favorite: TONY SOPRANO

BOW TIES N BOURBON  seems well prepped and as good as any. Carl has them ready to score early and Jody doesn't baby them. Top call, but lukewarm. I've never seen any of these once.   

SMOKE MONKEY  Beaver is a solid trotting guy and he looks to have this one ready. He was able to sit and behave while the pace crawled the third quarter and then fly home. That gives him an edge over the balance and gives him a shot with my top play. 

MSOAKBROOK HANOVER   didn't go much in the qualifier, but came home right and I doubt speed is an issue with the way these types are bred these days. Minor shot if the top 2 blow up. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

watching the balance---no rating or comments. Total unknowns. 

Race 2

Overall synopsis: Green 2yo's. Post parade is very important. In these types of races it is usually not the ones you know can do it, but the ones who you don't know but probably can and haven't shown it yet. Watching them parade gives you some idea of what they might have.

Probable Favorite: IMSPORTY

WHATASHOWINONTARIO bred to be a top horse and blazed home last time in 55. As long as he behaves, he should handle this bunch. Top call, but remembering these are all very green and you can't rely on them. I'd want a price I likely wont get to pay to find out here. I'd need 5-2, and I doubt that is there.   

THINK ON IT  as with most MacIntosh 2yo, he looks well prepped to race to win right away. He has a shot, but the top pick looks more racey to this point. I'd use them both in the double if I go that route.   

 Play Against:

IMSPORTY sat way back in his qualifier, then blitzed home to mow them all down. That might work with the ones who aren't race ready, but it wont work here. I think this is a test and tuneup to have him ready for wherever he starts out next time, the Gold or Grassroots. He will likely be a very short price and I will take that action. He can beat me, but risk/reward time here.

The rest:

not rated---  

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Not a stellar bunch, but a good betting race if you can find the live one for the price. I don't think that is Black Queen, so you have to find who that is. I have two options. I'd use them both on the back end of the early pick 3.

Probable Favorite: BLACK QUEEN

CAVIART SCARLETT  has showed significant improvement in each start and now needs to take one more step forward and beat the A track foes who will make her work for it. I think its there. Nifty Norman is a pretty good judge of what he has. He would likely leave her at the B's if he though that was the right move. I want 5-2 on her or I go to the place and show pools. 

ANISTON SEELSTER  just wasn't a great 2yo, and drew badly at the end when she might have been putting it together. Possibly she has matured, and she comes back here in a very soft spot. For the right price, she is a decent play. I'd say 9-2. I'm watching to see what she is about. I don't recall her from last year. 

 Play Against:

MSBLACK QUEEN  is still winless and her last quarters are awful. Short price tonight, and I'll take my chances against her on the other side of the fence. Soft bunch, but she has met soft bunches and still failed.

The rest:

NSMISS SANGRIA---noted and confirmed hanger. Pass  

MSBLACK WIDOW BABY---did well first out to be 2nd,  then was okay the next time against stakes mares she likely isn't ready for. This is a good spot for her, but I like a couple a bit better. She isn't out of the question, but I'd wait one more and hope the backers jump off her ship if she doesn't come through tonight. 

NSWISHES FOR YOU---0 for 20 and failing at the B's. Pass.  

NSTWIN B SWEETHEART---Doesn't look viable to me for the win. If she tripped out, she could make the ticket.   

Race 4

Probable Favorite: VEGAS ROCKS

SHADOW NEWTON  raced solid last time on the engine and can go all the way this time. Its a very light field and he might get a breather if he makes the top. That could be enough for him. Top call, but a suspect group top to bottom, as you would expect most nights in this class. 

MSBAD BAD BOY   low percentage winner who aborts the condition foes mission and gets realistic. He might be the type to find a home with these and the price will be right tonight. At 6-1, he is a value play. 

MSHE SAID   drew the claim last time and is in the mix. I suspect a short price tonight, and I'm not sold he is worth playing for that. I will watch and see if he is improved. He would have to be to be short price worthy. I'm not sure he will. 

 Play Against:

VEGAS ROCKS  just does not impress me, and while he got it done by stalking and picking them up late last time, I think he goes down this time. His best before due date is just about at expiry. Tonight or next time. I will play for tonight.

The rest:

NSSPEED RACER--- is a nickel bred rat and I don't care what post he gets, I will not go near him at this track. He paces like a B track horse, even with these A pretenders. 

NSPICTONIAN CAPER---sat way back last time and couldn't even get up for 5th in a soft bunch. Nuff said.  

NSTOTALLY DREAMY---1 for 49 and bad form. More nuff said.  

SHOOT N C---still a maiden, and being priced to draw a buyer. Raced easy enough to make sure he looks good. Likely a decent play if he gets bought and shows up at Rideau in a maiden. Not here. 

LCBEACH BLAST---not thrilled with what I've seen from him, but he could pop at any time. I look elsewhere tonight. He has burned me lately a few times.  

Race 5

Overall synopsis: Not sold on Gronk and he looks to be overbet here. I went for the bombs away longshot on the trainer change angle, and backed him up with a couple of other logical ones who hang around and have some go.

Probable Favorite: GRONK




 Play Against:

GRONK  lively enough, but he isn't passing horses like I thought he would. I am on the fence on him for now and will take his short priced action in here. 

The rest:

the balance--- none of these are worth rating. They are all equally hard to like and would be very surprising if they were even in contention at the tote board. 

Race 6

Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite: RAVE ON

INTENDED STYLE   I am playing for the bounce back here. These types can't get it done week after week, but his kind seem to rebound well when they have an off week. The price will be right tonight. Lean top call over my 2nd choice, who is pretty win shy, especially when you get up around this level.  

RAVE ON  see above. 

P L GYRO defines win shy. I can't play this guy for the win, even though he always looks like it will be next time, and then...it isn't.   

 Play Against:


The rest:

NSHOLLYWOOD HAM---the horse and trainer's record speak for themselves.  

LCMAJOR STARLIGHT---takes the dive in for 12 here and needs to. He hasn't looked good on the track for some time. I can't go near him as is. I will view him tonight to see if he is any different. I doubt it.  

LCDISTANT CAM---is the type who could jump up in a race like this. If I was playing a longshot in here, he'd be the one. Good pick 4 sweetener.  

LCGENESEE---seems to be hanging now and that wont cut it. Pass.   

LCSHIPPS XPECTANCY---tried to wire them last time but as usual, the stretch caught up with him. Pass from out here.   

LC I WANNA BE GEARED---bad post or I might have gone to him. Minor shot if the trip really works out. That is unlikely. Another day maybe.  

Race 7

Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite: WHITE BECOMES HER

RECKON IM READY  Is a claim that hasn't worked out. However, he is still at the right level and is a wake up candidate at the end of the needle. He has a history anyway, before he joined team Adams/Haskell of going off form and returning back to it within a few months. Very much the typical Kadabra type, with a side helping tonight of Dr. Adams magic potion. Top call. I want 7-2. 

WHITE BECOMES HER  the obvious play at very short odds ditches and misses bearcats. If you want even money it will be there and she might be good enough. I'm not sold completely and wont take her action, but think the Adams gas might be pumped into the top choice tonight. That could be enough to pass her on her likely front end mission.  

ROCKYS FIRST when he is good, he is a pretty good leaver who can finish enough to make the ticket. That will be my call for him tonight against a balance that doesn't look tough to out trot off a trip.   

 Play Against:


The rest:

LCNATURAL FORCES---shipper who is flat. Would have to wake up.   

DREAMFAIR BOGART---making breaks again and can't go near him until he is sorted out, if he can be.  

HOUSE OF CASH---stayed trotting last time. He doesn't always and the pressure of some of these might set him off again if he is used hard to go after them. Pass.   

LCTWIGGYS TWICK---still maintain this one would be better off in a claimer. I wait for that.   

LCMONEY MAVEN---gets Jody back, but the post is a problem and my top 2 picks are also an issue for him. Bit player tonight.   

LCJUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL---marginal type who needs a good post and doesn't have it.  

LC O U SEXY GUY---post 10 in against a pretty tough bunch for him. Another day.   

Race 8

Probable Favorite: TWOMICKEYTRIP

LCYUCATAN  goes into a the claimer, and needs to. Maybe the weaker overall competition helps him try harder. That is my play here and I'm looking for 10-1 or more. Not sure what to expect from him but he has been good enough for these before. 

LCTOPCORNERTERROR  is always around. He could luck out and win if every possible thing goes right for him. He isn't very determined. 

CRAFTY MASTER   tailing off a bit and comes late but isn't as dangerous as a month ago. Call for 3rd and possibly 2nd if others who look likely fail.  

 Play Against:

has great form and will likely take more money this week. He is very trip dependent and there are enough options here that I will take his action. He has certainly improved and found a level. But winning is still an issue. 

TWOMICKEYTRIP  was very live and legit last time for Moreau and he jams him back in to likely go to a new home. He should be even money again and I think he is 50/50 to deliver on that price. I will go against it. 

The rest:

NSMODERN XHIBIT--- no shot with these.  

MS CHEYENNE REIDER---not as good as he was, but crazy speed type who must be respected. I go elsewhere, but he wouldn't shock me either.   
Race 9

Probable Favorite: KINETIC KING

CANTABS FORTUNE  Obviously she wasn't right last time, or fit, or both. Zeron raced her tough so it must have taken him by surprise, whatever it was. He comes right back with her, so I suspect he corrected the issue. She dives in class and while some of these aren't that soft, they aren't on her level if she shows up and is ready to race this time. 

MSFORK was flat last time. I am suspicious of him, but he has talent and is dangerous enough. I can't play him, but I respect what he has done in the past.

MSKINETIC KING  is dangerous because he is fast and has class when he has his act together. He is also one step from running in every race. I can't use him at short odds. 

 Play Against:

HER NAME IS LOLA  has terrible form and I am not sold the drop helps her. She would have to show me something I don't see. 

The rest:

NSSTAR OF THUNDER---hard to like as is.  

NSKATE SMITH ---cant seem to trot a flat mile. Pass for now  

NSSEVERUS HANOVER---is impossible to like for so many reasons. Breaks, cheap, no guts, bad post.  

Race 10

Overall synopsis: could be any of my top 3. I don't like any of them that much, but they all have potential to step up here and I have not liked what I've seen from One To Draw To, who will be the heavy chalk.

Probable Favorite: ONE TO DRAW TO

R U MACHIN ME  pacing okay. He will get up to speed with these at some point. Maybe tonight. Maybe not.  

MSGRANTLAND  gets a few changes tonight and is likely progressing. He hasn't done enough yet, but is another moving forward in small bits. 

LCMACH ON THE BEACH  doesn't seem to understand the concept of a racehorse, as he sits way back, doesn't appear to try, and then finishes well. Not sure what to make of him, but he appears to have talent if he gets his head together. Longshot chance if he does.  

 Play Against:

ONE TO DRAW TO  bears in horrible in the lane. Those types get beat all the time at chalk money.

The rest:

NS REAL RAYE---good at the B's, hasn't shown me he can go with the top tier at the A track.   

NSJIMMY BE GOOD---total stopping rat. should not be racing at this track. 

NSTWIN B SPORTSMAN---very lame and likely wont even win at the B tracks.  

MSWILDCAT LIGHTNING---has every chance every time, but gets beat. I can't back him when I keep seeing that.   


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