Monday, June 1, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 1, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $111
Best Win Bet:  $10 win on Body Balance  in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $6 win on Ticket To Roll in the 6th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Charmed Life in the 2nd
Best Show Bet:  $6 show on One Dollar Sam in the 4th
Best exactor bet:
Longshot exactor bet:none
Best Exotic Bet: :
Worst Bet:  Corsica Hall to win. $10

Race 1


Our Mojo            $8 to win
$2 exactor 4 with 2,3,8
$1 exactor 2 with 3,4,8 

$2 DD 4 with 2,5

Our Mojo gets my lukewarm top call. The price will be right. He dropped back to this level last time and he raced okay. Not great, just okay. He only has to come back to that and get the right kind of trip to be a player. There are a lot of suspect ones on the page in this one. He is one of them, but the price will be much more favorable. He has been good enough in the past to handle these. His form appears to be improving and being a good leaver helps his cause. He needs to trip out.

Seawind Pascale has been off 3 plus weeks now, and that is a concern. She does take a major class dive, and she has a very good post to further her cause as a noted leaver who can carry it well or follow a helmet and shoot off of it. However, she hasn't been racing well, and she would be hard to take at very short odds, which is what you are looking at tonight if you back here. I will call her for 2nd and stay away from her. Dangerous, but suspicious.

Market Rally would be an obvious play if she had not been off a month now. What are we to think? She's a go? She's out for a trip and needs one? You just can't know. I can't play her, but obviously if she is sound, fit and still sharp, she is a major contender. No play either way for me. Just watching. She does look to have a lot of upside if she is still 'as is'. The one troubling issue with her is the last quarters and how consistently bad they have become. Being a Cash Hall, tying up is likely an issue, and maybe Ben B has been working on that. I want to see her finish better. That is what I will be looking for tonight.

 Play Against:

I Am Special Gets a free pass on the equipment break charted line when it was clear she was going to run for the same reason she always has.....she has issues and when any little thing bothers her, she blows up. So, she doesn't have to qualify and comes in with two breaks where she completely self destructed. I think three is the charm here.

The rest:

Eagle Scout---ships in from Northville. This horse has never done well on this circuit, and he had trouble getting a cheque at London in the Preferred 3. As a rule, horses that do that don't do well in this class. Pass. He is very hard to like in this spot.

Strong Hope---won his 2nd last against a very soft bunch, but last time had to work for it and packed it in. He meets those types again, and he is noted as one who doesn't hold form long. I think his price will be short enough tonight that I can't back him. Not sure where he goes when he can't race at the bottom class here once he wins it. Likely a 12 claimer is a better fit.

Money Maven---raced a sharp mile on Confed Cup night to be 2nd to a fairly sharp one. Tonight, he picks up Jody,  which is obviously a huge improvement. Still, I need to see more to show he can compete with the top half of this field. Longshot play if you think Jody makes enough of a difference here. I'm not sold that it does. Ashlake would get swamped in this race, and he couldn't beat her.

Twiggs Twick---was claimed for 15 by Cirasoula, but her form went off right away,  as many of his did then. She won for that tag and then tried this class the next time with a poor result. Shipped to Northville and beat up on those rats,  and now comes back. Can't see her being a player with some of these. Back in a claimer is where she needs to be. She appears to have a speed limit of 56 and a piece, and that is about 1 second off most of these.

 Race 2


Charmed Life        $10 to win, place

Charmed Life She will get my call on the turnaround. A month ago, she is 1-2 in this field. Now, the bettors have soured on her. But how bad has she raced really? She was given no chance for the win 2 back and raced as good as she was allowed to when she finished 2nd. Last time, she had no hope when she was forced to go after the legit leader who just gunned the 3rd quarter and put her away. To say that Jody has driven 2 suspect and/or bad races is an understatement. That doesn't mean she can't turn it around here if the flow is more favorable and she is herself. For the likely odds, I will be on board this time. She has a shot with some value. I would add that many of Menary's high end mares have not performed lately. Could be some sickness or mares in heat factoring in there. That can go the other way as fast as it went that way.

Daylon Magician was full value last time, while noting that the better ones weren't involved. He did what he had to do from the 10 hole and picked them all off when it counted. Lately, he has had trouble when the legit Preferred ones show up. Tonight, he has two of them to deal with. No play for me, but he is certainly capable of beating them both with what he has accomplished in his career. 

 Play Against:

Intimidate comes off the shelf in preparation for another big Stakes season attempt. Of course, the price will be short tonight. He is clearly the one to beat, but it wont be easy for him as others have a shot. I will call him for 2nd best to one of them in here tonight, and will play against him that way. His history has been that he starts the season slowly and builds to his best form. Keep that in mind if you are going to take even money on him tonight.

The rest:

Slip Into Glide---appears currently to be over his head in this class. He was the king of these for about a month this time last year, but that was then. Tonight, he needs one more so so line to drop more money and get back down where he belongs at the moment. Total pass.

Catch The Dream--appears overmatched in here for the win. He is possible for the ticket, if things go his way and others blow up. If they don't, he isn't. He is very much an opportunist.

Cool Guy---has sneakily shown he can go with these. I wouldn't discount him. However, there are at least 3 very legit superstars in here, and he has not shown his best takes all of them, or even any of them. I'm watching him though. He has moved away from the one dimensional style he was noted for. He might become good enough at some point. Not tonight for me.

 Race 3


Theresademoninme        $8 to win
Power Move                    $4 to win

Theresademoninme was clearly not himself last time, as he backed away from the gate as it sped up. He is a noted leaver and he just didn't have it last time. That was his 2nd try with those as he was forced to move up sharply. He is back quickly, so whatever it was, one has to hope its rectified. If it is, and with the likely price attached, he can go right back out for the lead and hopefully find a trip. He needs it. He is no bearcat and likely never will be. Many of these are not that good right now, so, he doesn't have to beat a sharp one. He just has to be the horse he appeared to be a few weeks ago. I will take that chance. Ben B's trotters run very hot and cold. He drops back down a shade, and that can only help him get the type of trip he needs. 

Power Move he is the type that can always upset. He sits and stalks and has a decent brush every now and then. His last was okay, at this level, and many of these are not thrilling. He draws inside, and hopefully can get away 3rd and follow along then escape on or near the turn. If so, he has upset potential and I will play him on that angle. Minor chance on all those angles. Price should be right.

Windsong Geant He looks for the drop and pop tonight. The gap between races is a concern for sure. But he does have a history of racing well on that angle, as he does have issues and isn't the type that can race every week.  He has a lot of talent and back class, and that might be enough with this pretty soft bunch tonight. I wont play him, as I wont take the short price he brings, but he would be in the mix for sure and a must use in my view on the pick 3 if you are playing that. He is possible. 

 Play Against:

Bags For All.  takes the big class drop and has been racing well considering what she faces tonight. However, she has looked wonky gaited at times in several of her latest miles, and I could see her blowing up tonight at a relatively low price. I will play it that way. If she isn't, she is obviously a major player with these.

The rest:

Cash For Gold--- raced well first off the shelf for Vanderkamp last time. He also has a long history of bad behavior, and a trainer /driver who doesn't always make him work when he might. I can't use him tonight, but he is always dangerous and cannot be tossed either.

Flexible Woman---drops a notch here, and needs to. She has been double digits for a long time and her form and soundness have been in question for about as long. She simply does not hold form as she races.  I am looking for some sign of a turnaround, but as of yet, I don't see any. No play for me tonight.

Reckon Im Ready---so far, the Adams magic has not worked on this one. Another similar post in a similar class makes him a pass for me again. I think he needs to go back into a claimer.

Midfield Magic---is hard to like on multiple levels. He rarely wins even at the bottom, which is where he was last time when he got 2nd. His driver rarely wins and hasn't won a race in 2 months. He runs many times when he has a chance, and he has never appeared as good as many of these even when he is as good as he can be. Total toss for me. He is the type that will be a 10 year old with 400k made and you will scratch your head trying to figure out how he did that while losing almost every time in conditions.

 Race 4


Mullet Blue Chip  $6 to win
One Dollar Sam  $6 to win, show

Mullet Blue Chip a blueblood bred who raced fairly well his first start out. However, he was very green, all over the track, ducking in at times and then seemingly lost out there. So, hopefully he puts it together from that experience tonight. I'd want 2-1, but at that price, he is a play. There are others who might step up, so I would not single him.

One Dollar Sam Is an interesting horse, in that he is a first time starter in June of his 4 year old year. So, something went wrong along the way to him becoming a colt racehorse. He is a homebred for Carmen's dad, and he improved vastly from qualifier 1 to qualifier 2. I could see him taking down this bunch. Hopefully, the post time price justifies that. He isn't a colt prospect, so there is no reason to baby him or point him. I say he is a go right now if he has the go to go. We shall see.

 Play Against:

Corsica Hall had every chance to win last time and was short again at the wire. Yes, it was his first start back of the season, so there is that. But its becoming a trend with him. He lacks some grit. He is still a maiden and has had lots of chances to rectify that. Short price again tonight, I will go against him. It appears his breeding is a bit short for this track, but he can clean up in Kentucky against a bunch that have similar DNA.

The rest:

Rebel Child---always looks great on the track and even going to the half, but seems to falter after that. He gets harder to like every time, and I'm not sure he can turn it around on this circuit. I am watching for a sign, but so far, the sign says "go to Grand River."

Twin B Commander--on a positive note, he took his time down significantly in his first lifetime start from the  9 hole after a month from qualifier to first start. On the downside, that was a horrid, stopping bunch and he couldn't close a lick on them. Pass for now. I want to see how he progresses this time. I have hope he will progress. Now, I want to see hope turn to production.

ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL---has not done enough for me yet to suggest he has winning form. I am watching to see which way he goes. The next two starts should give me that.

Think Again---is a horribly gaited, 14 time maiden who shows zero ability to ever win at this track. No shot.

Arazi--is on my radar, in that he is a blueblood who paced his own back half in 55.3 in his qualifier. That alone might get me to take a shot at him at decent odds tonight. But, the 8 hole, others with more experience and that CC took another who doesn't look that live tonight over him when he drives enough for Galucci tells me tonight is not the night. Watching.
 Race 5



Monopoly Blue Chip will get  my top call as the only viable horse who looks capable enough if the chalk bombs out for some reason. I wont play him though. He just doesn't thrill me. The fact that he got down to the half in 1:02 in his qualifier would concern me. I want to see him race and be in the race. At that speed, he will be way back and chasing a faster back half.
I suppose if I play the pick 4, I use him and the chalk. Otherwise, its a complete no play race for me. If he were to go off at 7-1 or higher for some reason, he does become a lot more attractive. I don't see that happening.

 Play Against:

Elegant Serenity as a filly who made the final of the Peaceful Way last year, and is likely pointed to the big dances this year, as well as who her mother is, she is obviously getting hammered tonight down to 2-5 or less. At those odds, I will take my chances. Young trotters make mistakes. If she doesn't, she steamrolls this bunch. It's that simple.

The rest:

Back To Black---looked like a player last time, tipped wide and cleared, but hung badly in the lane and was outfinished by another who was running in really bad. He is hard to play until he gains some experience and builds racing stamina. Watching for now. Condren picks up the lines this time and that is a monster improvement.

JENALEAH---seems to be learning the game,  and its taking a while, as it does with many of these. Can't play her here until I see she is ready to race to win. Maybe she is edging towards that. I will look for signs. So far, I don't see any.

AUGUSTUS MCCREA---goes first lifetime for her owner/breeder/trainer and driver Barton, who I have never seen drive before. Have to pass unless there is something there I don't see. Curious.

WHOSGOINGTOCATCHUS---is 0 for 17 and counting, as well as being boxcars every start at this track. He meets some very nice prospects in here. Can't  see him being dangerous for the win, and marginal for the ticket at best.

TEA BREAK ---looks like a horse that has no finish whatsoever. Until that is rectified, he is impossible to like.

MUSCLES ROUSEY---is impossible to like on any variable you can measure. For sure 99-1 plus shot.

DRINKSONTHEHOUSE---10 hole for a trotter who struggles to get away clean. Nope.


Race 6


Ticket To Roll $6 to win

Ticket To Roll Is the one I am going to on the price angle. Sylvain blasted him out last time, and he was allowed to clear by the winner who retook when he needed to and won it fairly easy. He was down to the half in 54.1, parked all the way, and that was suicide for him. This guy didn't stop altogether, all things considered, and if he were to duplicate that mile and maybe sit in the pocket this time, he is very dangerous. He is my live longshot play of the night. Fillion took Moreau's as you would expect, and that lands Jody on him, who, in my view, is the right type of driver for this horse. He can get him off the switch and land him where he needs to be. The rest is up to the horse. 

Fashion Maven  looks very tough with this bunch. And he will bring a price that reflects that. He will take some beating, but I will go against him with one who shows signs but needs some luck and right trip. For sure, I would not be playing against him, and I would box him in the exactor with any horse you think has a legit shot at him. His lack of final quarter speed without a very soft trip is troubling and would lead me to avoid him when he is overbet, as he will be tonight.

Librado Hanover I will list at third, and if every possible thing went right, he is capable enough. One thing you notice about Elliot's horses is that they always look like they can win, but they rarely do once they are out of maidens. Librado is another like that. Elliot makes lots of money for himself on that angle, as an owner/trainer its a good thing, but as a bettor, they don't win. That is all there is to it. Not often anyway. When the price is right, I might take a stab at this one again.

 Play Against:

Rather Swell 0 for 16 and counting. Always around, always looks dangerous, but as his breeding indicates, he doesn't fight for the win when they come to him. That means he will win one of these, when his best challenger is one who is just like him. I can see at least two in here who aren't. I will take his action tonight. He was a solid 2yo, but never came back good and is likely a start or two from finding a new home. The Robert MacIntosh experience is about over for him.

The rest:

SHARK LEAP HANOVER---barely broke his maiden on this circuit and that appears to be the end of the line for him now. Off to Georgian or KD asap.

Velocity Driven ---his last 3 in this class or just above have been two 8ths and a 7th, and well beaten each time. Post 7 hurts him a bit here when there are fast leavers in here inside him who need the same trip he does and aren't going to give up that spot. Pass again. He has to turn it around before I got back to him. Haven't seen any reason yet. As Gangle notes, he is dropping back to the weaker nw2 class. I will note that he badly needs to.

Tymal Pronto ---broke his maiden at boxcars against some of the worst this circuit can offer up. He was a monster rat before that and he continues to be. He will be lucky to beat even one in here. 

AloneinSpades---first time Moreau. That hasn't been a great angle lately. Not like it was. He broke his maiden at 69-1 but has found these very tough. I will watch one time to see what Moreau can do with him.

Race 7


Body Balance  $10 to win

Body Balance had a horrible trip last time, backed into at every point and very wide to get around a bunch of struggling ones. Once free, he closed like a monster. He simply must be played again if he can hold that sharpness, which he has done for a long time now.  My best bet of the night because I think a few others in here are going to take money.

PRESTIDIGITATOR   went right to the back as expected after 3 years away. He certainly showed he is back, and Fillion sticks him. You don't wait as long on a horse as they did unless you think he is worth it. Do I think he is ready to win tonight? I'm not sure. I think not, but he could. I'd certainly use him in the pick 4, but I prefer my top pick more.

Adversity got the worst of it last time, as Etruscan was good Etruscan and he had to run at him when the pace picked up, and as with Charmed Life that left him no shot. I suspect he will be raced easier tonight and come late to try and get 2nd or 3rd. 3rd seems more likely, and I will be looking to play him next time from a better spot. He does need careful handling leaving, and that does hurt him a bit.

 Play Against:

Riveting Rosie  simply outleft and outclassed them last time at a very generous price. That is unlikely to happen this time and since I had her last time when the price was right, I will play against her this time when the price is wrong.

The rest:

DOUBLEDOWN GASS---gets a bit better every time and last time followed but couldn't catch the leader and also weakened a shade late. One of these times, he is going to pay big. Not tonight I suspect. This field is very deep. But soon. I would note a non top 3 finish here gets him some class relief for next time. Watch him closely this time for next time. He will be a much shorter price then and you want to be ready.

Bax Of Life---used her usual stalk, duck and pounce style again last time to pick up 2nd. She is great at doing that. She isn't so great at beating live and talented horses,  which she would have to do tonight. More of the same for her tonight, and I'm not sure she even makes the ticket here. She has company for those prizes and they aren't easy to pass. 

White Becomes Her---is a 4yo mare making her 3rd start against tough aged mares and males. This field is deep. Too deep for her at this point.  Can't see it. She will have to find a level. This isn't it.

ZEUS LIGHTNING---moves up and faces a tough bunch. Too tough for him at this stage of his declining career. He has seen better days and needs to drop to pop.  No pop here.


Race 8


Hldontghttoyurdrms    $8 to win, place

HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS stays at the same level, but he draws the 6 hole, the best leaving post position at this track. He likes and needs to be on the engine or following a live one who is, and he is likely to get that trip here. Fillion knows him and has won with him before. Top call on all those factors and a decent price. 

Broadway Prince has thrown in two clunkers after racing great the time before that. He did the exact same thing previous to that. So, is tonight the night he turns it back around again at a big price? Maybe. I'd use him in the pick 4 and in an exactor box. I wouldn't play him straight win. I like my top choice much better tonight. Jody knows and likes to win these types of races with these types of inconsistent horses. Beware.

 Play Against:

Whiskey Tax  stays at the same level, keeps Durand at the lines and last time was on a line bad, as he was just a bit in his first race back off a layoff. I will take his action. He would have to completely turn it around and also win with Durand driving. Bad odds on all that happening. He hasn't returned as his old self. Not yet anyway. 

Burnin Money  One of the strangest horses on this curcuit. He rarely wins, and he usually needs to get to the bottom to do it, as he did last time. He moves up and takes money, but usually gets beat. Yet, here we are, 5 months into the year, he has 80k made and he likely pulls down 130k when all is said and done. Its a good game for the owners. The fact is he doesn't beat these very often anymore. So, I will play with the cards he deals me.
The rest:

Muscle Matters---returns at 4 after being a very decent colt. He has needed 3 qualifiers to get ready, and has not finished well in any of them. That is a concern. Post 8 tonight. I will watch him to determine where he is at. No play tonight.

JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL---moves up and faces many of those she has followed but not gone by. Not tonight for her. She is spotty down a class or two as it is.

MMS LUCKY BOY--has tried a variety of styles in this class lately and none have worked. Probably a class drop and a better post would. Neither of those variables are in play tonight. He is just another of Joe C's who has tailed off in the last 3 months.

RAINBOW GOLD---makes the trip in the trailer with his stablemate. Last time, he was soundly beaten by Twiggy's Twick at Northville. She would be 100-1 in here. He is a nice B track horse. They are racing at the A track tonight.

Buddy Hally---is racing okay as of late, but has tailed off a touch in his last two. That is his pattern over the last few seasons. I can't play him now. He is more likely to go backwards than forwards and I will watch him to see what he is like for the likelihood that he drops down soon and is a shorter priced viable option to consider.

Race 9


Sanattle Slew   $8 to win

Sanattle Slew Gets my top call. He seems to have found his comfort zone and his stalk, chase and close style usually gives him a shot to win, and he does on occasion. As some of these have hot form, he is likely to bring a decent price this time and he can make good on that if things go his way. I will take my shot with him.

Crafty Master As mentioned before, he isn't very sound, he is well past his glory days, but he still tries and has enough talent for as long as his legs hold up to be dangerous in this class every time he goes behind the gate. I wont play him, as he likely brings a shorter price tonight. He can beat me. As could others in here. Its a real mixed bag.

 Play Against:

Keystone Dalton  paced a monster mile last time on the wake up call and the odds drop and the way Jody drove him suggests that a few knew it was coming. Can he do it again? He could. He isn't likely to. This class, a different one steps up every time. Brewer jams him back in here, and he is likely going to a new home. So, he will be raced hard again. I think that sets up for something else, and I have listed the two I like for that chance in my win picks.

The rest:

Reb The Raider---is going all he can go for 20, but the speed has picked up as the weather has gotten warmer, and that is an issue for him. He likely heads to the B's soon, to try and win the Preferred or the non winners if he fits that on the money, and comes back late fall when they slow down again.  These look too tough for him.

REASONABLE FORCE---doesn't look good enough to me to contend with the top 3 or 4 in this one. He will have to show me more or drop back to the bottom condition class before I can use him.

Ideal Shadow---seems to find the worst, hardest trip he can every time. So, maybe he lucks into a good one at some point. I have never liked him and I don't play him. He has soundness issues which compromise him when the money is on the line at the tote board. Pass, but I realize he has the talent to win off the right trip.

WASHINGTON HANOVER---dominated in his two tries at Northville since Joe C. bought him. Those are impressive miles. Obviously, these are way tougher racehorses and he had trouble with those at Balmoral.  He takes the high tag and draws the outside with Massey, who is not winning races on this curcuit. I can't play him for those reasons. I will watch to see how he stacks up here.

Race 10



Lost In Panslation  stayed in last time, as he is known to do, and was locked and blocked, ducking and diving looking for room that never came. He has a minor shot tonight in a mixed bag of these types, as is usually the case. 

Sweet Colt Of Mine  was certainly live last time and bet like it wasn't a big secret. Fillion is back aboard. He has a real shot if he is that good again. He has a long history of going very lame very fast. Watch him post parade to get a read on him. He tips that hand.

 Play Against:

GREYSTONE MOE  draws well and he is certainly capable on the nights when he feels like it. Short price likely tonight, I will play on the angle he doesn't. Others in here are viable. He has to beat them all. I say he doesn't.

The rest:

SMOKIN BEAR---obviously. No. Just...No.

Click Boom---changed trainers and went backwards. He simply does not hold form, then pops back up. I will avoid him again, but he is always dangerous enough.

ROCK CAMROLLER---comes in with very sharp form and McMaster would have no problem jamming him at London/Grand River if he thought that was the best move. So, beware. He is very dangerous. 

LOVES A CHALLENGE---won at Sarnia by backing down the half and then going forward. He has not shown he can compete at this track to this point. Pass.

The outside 3---have all had their day in the sun in the winter when everything went their way. Now, they all look like bit players on non players. I can't like any of them for the win tonight.

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