Monday, June 15, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 15, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 on He Said in the 8th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Big Time Rocks in the 3rd
Best Place Bet:$10 on
Best Show Bet: $10 on Thoughtful Leader in the 2nd

Worst Win Bet:  $10 on La Bella Rosa
Race 1  
Race 2  $6 win on Molon Lave, $10 show on Thoughtful Leader
Race 3 $10 win on Big Time Rocks, $10 show on Sanattle Slew
Race 4 
Race 5  $10 place on DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR
Race 6 $10 win on Crafty Master
Race 7  $10 exactor Aloneinspades over Mystical Jet.
Race 8  $10 win on He Said
Race 9
 Race 10  

MS---minor shot
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watchIng for a future play
Race 1

Overall synopsis: Tough to get a winner here with confidence, so I lean towards price, and away from the likely favorite, who I don't like anyway, but she has the ability to win if she can drive straight, and even if she can't, she still might.

Probable Favorite: LA BELLA ROSA

NOBLE LEGEND  tried Grassroots foes last time long before he was ready to do much but follow and get a cheque. These are more in his wheelhouse and with CC, someone who knows how to finesse young trotters, if he is ready to go, he is likely to put him in striking position and give him a legit shot. Trotting hopples appear to have steadied him. These aren't very tough. Is he ready to step up? If they put him in the Grassroots..likely. Top call. I want at least 7-2, and more would be a lot better. Less would mean a pass. And very firm on that...............

TOP NOTCH LADY AS  3rd time starter who hasn't done much so far other than get around and take her time down. She did trot a decent back half last time, and she could go forward off that. It's always hard to tell with these types. I'd need odds to even consider her, and even at that, I'm hard pressed to play much of anything in here. Include her in that bunch of suspect suspect ones. 

UP THE ALLEY  might be or end up being the most talented of this bunch. Right now, he is suspect to trot a flat mile. He was in the gold last year and held his own. For the right price, if he parades and scores okay, he is worth a shot. I'd need 8-1 to consider him even if he looks okay. He is obviously a project at this point.   

 Play Against:


The rest:

MS LA BELLA ROSA---She has the speed. That is not in question. And has put 3 solid lines on the page, against some highly regarded prospects. But, she has also been on a line really bad twice in a row in the stretch. I was tempted to book her, but even on a line, she could beat these at this point. Her short price and possibly favorite status tonight lead me to avoid her. If she races good and gets beat, look for her next time to be heavy chalk and a solid play against if she is still on that line bad. If they haven't fixed that yet and she keeps racing, she is likely to get worse and run at some point.  

MS MAGICAL GEM---has been off a month now with a vet scratch. That isn't good. She was 2nd best, cutting the mile in her start two back, but also shows breaks. For a price, she has a minor shot, but I will pass on her tonight. Her trainers record leaves a lot to be desired and he likes to use races to test them, as opposed to fixing them before they race. Note that.  

MS  BACK TO BLACK---has not shown the type of finish needed on this circuit to stay with the contenders. I think he is better suited for the B's, but in this type of race, strange things can happen on any night. There are no standouts here. Staying flat always gives a shot. A minor one is what he has.  

  LC P L INDYANACA---is very well bred and shows some speed when he behaves, which currently isn't often or very reliable. He is the typical young trotter trying to get his act together. Watch him post parade to see how he looks and acts. He could be a bombs away winner, or a total runner. If he is 40-1, he is worth a deuce.   

NS CENTURY BEHEMOTH---trotted in 58 last time, but draws bad again and starts bad as a rule. So far, he has taken his time down following, but doesn't show the powers to recover. He hasn't lived up yet to the lofty aspirations they had for him last year tossing him in the Gold. 

LC P L INCOMING---first time starter who has not trotted well in the lane all 3 times. He is hard to like, but has the breeding to be dangerous if he turns it around in a hurry. He will be boxcars. 

WATCH SHYSTER---basically a first time starter from the 10 hole who shows some decent back half speed. Watching for now. He might be good to go next time if he goes forward and draws better next time. I can't remember the last trotter who was a first time starter from the 10 hole and won. He doesn't look like the exception to that rule. He was qualified back on 3 days after he ran at the start at Georgian. Green.  
Race 2

Overall synopsis: Big Rich gave it up last time. Was he short, or it a sign he might not be the real deal like he appeared to be last year? I play for price and say he is too risky to hang your hat on. Several in here could step up. I picked the one I like best. Not with much confidence though. Tough first two races on the card to start off with.

Probable Favorite:BIG RICH

MOLON LAVE  gets my top call to take down my 2nd choice at a decent price. I would think 7-1 or higher is reasonable and I'd want that and more to take the chance he steps up. He gets a bit better each time and last time CC asked him to work for it, which he did before he hung in for 3rd against a couple of pretty nice horses who aren't maidens and have beaten far better than many of these might ever get to face. 3rd best to those two is a good reference point.

BIG RICH  Was a bust last time as the chalk, as he didn't have any answers when the winner blew by him late. He is 0 for 10 now. That is troublesome when they went out of their way to spot him last time in what seemed a cinch spot. His last quarter was still good, so he didn't stop or give up. But, he might not have the fight a winner needs. He also had trouble clearing when he made his move. That is another bad sign. He might also get away with that here anyway. Your call. I will play price. He isn't that here. Expect and accept 3-5 or 4-5 if you want his action. I do not.   

BUZZ  draws better here than in his last 2, and was no match for the winner who daylighted the field last time. He got a cheque, and that was probably all he could expect. He is coming along for sure and looks like a winner in the next few weeks if he stays on course. Maybe even tonight. He would have to do more though to get better than 3rd or 4th and he has not shown he can trot forward at the top end of the field when the pressure is on. Watching and he has a shot. Minor. Decent price though.  

 Play Against:

ONTHEROAD DE VIE   0 for 16 gelding who knows how to earn and is always around. He hung tough last time against a trotter who could have been barred from the wagering. He meets some tough ones here again, and while he is fast enough, he isn't beating anybody when it counts. I'm not sold on the likely heavy chalk here, but there are others too and he would have to hold them all off or pass them all, whatever strategy Zeron takes. I don't see it. 

The rest:

WATCH THOUGHTFUL LEADER---has been well thought of for weeks, made a miscue at short odds that wasn't his fault, and otherwise has improved every time. He is being handled carefully. I suspect he is going to be a good one and they aren't rushing him. He was a solid 3rd in the Grassroots to a bearcat and another who has significant talent. He could win this, but I will wait one more. He is on my radar for sure and its only a matter of time for him in my view.  

MSAUGUSTUS MCCREA---trotted a very good mile last time to be 3rd, right there for 2nd against a winner who is far beyond the league this one is in. Good first effort. He still carries a non driver at the helm, and that makes him tough to back. When the time is right, lets hope a catch driver comes aboard. If he were to get a driver change at 6:30, that would make him playable at a price. Otherwise, pass for me. He appears to have talent.

MS MY MY HEY HEY---took himself out of it before the car pulled away last time. That is two times he has done that. Can't touch him until he gets around clean once in a race. He might have talent. Lets see it in a real race. The jury is out and hung at this point. Others have a big experience edge on him anyway.   

WATCHVIRGIL CAINE---looked very green last time and horribly spotted and equipped to tackle Grassroots types when he hasn't beaten maidens at the B's in the limited action he has had. He gets a trainer change to a very good trotting man. That counts for something. I am watching to see if that ends up being significant. Not tonight. 

MS TSWALU---0 for 15 and draws the 9 hole. He looked like a prospect two months ago, when he trotted fast and was dangerous. But he stays on the pylons most nights, and that suggests the driver understands he is going to make a living earning small shares for a long time. He tried Grassroots types last time and was put on the lead, and then backed away bad late. That is why he stays on the plyons most nights. 

LCWATCHSTORMONT CONTESSA---draws terrible again here, but has significant go. In spite of the post, she has a longshot chance. She made a big 3rd quarter move last time she was here but faded. She went to Grand River, drew the 8 hole, but to her credit, still won in slow time. Hard to get a read on her overall. I will watch tonight. Very much an outsider, but not a toss.  

Race 3

Overall synopsis: This is not the type of race where you can exclude any of them with any kind of confidence. You really have to dig for value and some little nugget to fish out a winner. And even then, they aren't always the same as they were the last time, for which is mostly what you are going on. Good luck. I will just say what I see and what I think could happen.

Probable Favorite:BEACH HERO

BIG TIME ROCKS Is 2nd time Johnson, and first time was not good. He drops here because the classes were merged and these are much softer than last time. Hoping he is better and the drop helps him also. I am playing for price here, and I'd need 9-2 to make him viable. Not sure if I get that. Depends how much money my 2nd and 3rd choice take.

SANATTLE SLEW classic win shy, soft trip opportunist type. The type that drops and still doesn't get it done. Very much a poor mans Apprentice Hanover or Smarty Pants type. Probably a good show bet if he doesn't take big money in that pool. Not for the win for me. I like him only at big odds when he might trip out. That isn't the case here.   

BEACH HERO drops into a claimer here and might find a new home. He was very lame last time I saw him at Flamboro. But dead game. He has turned into a gritty one. With Isaac's cheater juice back in him, he can't be discounted. I like my top 2 better, and my top choice even better for a very solid price. 

 Play Against:

PRESCOTTS HOPE  went first off the claim for Brealey and was live, but on his life to hold off one who passes him a fraction of a step after the wire. He needs the most perfect, soft trip to win. Those types rarely double up. I will take his action against a few in here who faced tougher last time. These aren't conditioned claimers, they are the ones who have to face the old warriors. That is a big difference for him this time. 

The rest:

LC CALIBER SEELSTER---seems like 54 is all he can go, and even if he was able to get to 53 off a soft trip, that might not be enough. He would need a big collapse by the whole field. I don't see it. He is 0 for 18 and he wasn't much better last year at the B's where he should have won more. 

LC REB THE RAIDER---is likely sent this time, as that is his best style, and he doesn't meet the deep fields he has for a while. Can he go all the way? He could. I think he is ripe to be picked off by the entire field if he is challenged at the half. Beach Hero is at least one who will be gunning at him. There could be others. Pass for me. 

  MS ADVERSARY SEELSTER ---is strangely put in here for 20. I can't see him against these. I think he is over his head and Moreau dumped him for a reason. I'd put him back in for 8 and make money if he can do that.  
Race 4

Overall synopsis: You have to have an iron stomach to play these. More like deep winter types that the better trainers have long given up any hope of doing much with. I doubt any of them is worth 10k, let alone the tag on the page.

Probable Favorite:VEGAS ROCKS

VEGAS ROCKS is searching for a level like many of these do when they hit a wall on the condition scale. This is a terrible field if the outside two are the next ML choices after this guy. He gets my call on the relativity factor. He is also hard to like, but more likeable than the rest. That isn't exactly a big vote of confidence in him either. 

BEACH BLAST isn't the worst stab here if you don't like my top choice, who I am not really sold on. I'd probably take this guys price and a chance on him if the top choice is anywhere close to 7-5 or south of that. Shane Arsenault is a pretty good trainer and this guy has some breeding and fast mark to suggest there is something to get out of him if he can do that. His only condition try on the page shows him getting interferred with at the start and the top 3 include a serious stake winner, a Grassroot winner and a horse kept eligible to the Cup right up to the end. That is all recent. He might not get around a B track well, so I am giving him a lot of benefit of the doubt here. He could just be a rat. These are all rats. Maybe he is a better rat. 2 for 32 is troubling, but most of these rats in here are very troubling period. 

 SACHERTORTE drew the claim 2 back from an owner I don't know of who forked him over to Moreau, who took him to Grand River but drew the 8 hole. He puts him in here to win obviously, and the jury is out. Moreau is not getting results lately. That angle isn't as solid as it was 6 months ago. Maybe Moreau wakes him up and finds something. That is the only reason I put him up for 3rd, and he might bring a price because Moreau is cold. His breeding suggests hanger and non trier when the money is on the line. Keep that in mind.  

PAIN IN THE GLASS  closed with the pack last time and has done more than most of these have in their careers and lately. I suppose in relative terms he has a fair shot with these and I'd certainly use him on a pick 4 ticket. Post 9 hurts his type. Their powers of recovery and grit to do so are usually in question. I'd need 10-1 on the straight win front to make him a viable chance to take. 

 Play Against:

VEGAS ROCKS  my top choice, but if the price is too low, I'd put the car in reverse and book him instead of play him. I don't usually book a horse I view as the most likely winner, but this race and this type is all about value. At 2-1 he is reasonable value. At 7-5, he is a solid book.

The rest:

NS TOTALLY DREAMY---is 1 for 48 the last two seasons and fresh off a dull effort with terrible ones at Flamboro. Nuff said. 

NSPICTONIAN CAPER ---Maritime bred who doesn't appear to be fast enough for these even if he had the class and winning attitude, of which he has neither anyway. Likely a 5 claimer by Labor Day.  

 MS SHADOW NEWTON---was claimed 4 back by Dowling and won that one. He has raced okay, but Dowling himself has cooled off a bit also. He is another who has to show more at this track. His overall speed is in question. His last quarters are also a reminder that his dam is by Broadway Blue, even though she was a top mare. She has thrown to her pedigree..not her racing ability. He is another...2 for 34. At least they all have that in common.  

  NS THE DUKE OF ZORRA---got parked the mile last time, because even rats wont let him go and follow him. No shot. Not sure why he is back again. What am I missing here? 

WATCH SHOOT N C---is unlike most of these, in that he hasn't even beaten maidens or got close doing that. He is very hard to like. I will watch to see if he can even stay with these. He is in very deep. He couldn't even get a cheque at Georgian last time. 

MSSPEED RACER---He is the direct opposite of most in here. Some of these are well bred failures who can't win races anywhere. He is a nickel bred who has won 8 times, but only has 20k made for all that effort. I suppose he is very viable if he had drawn better. But would still be iffy from that spot. He smacks of cheap Chicago claimer who wont make it at this track, even if Joe C is pumping him full of whatever he pumps into these nickel breds to make them go for as long as they can walk. Pass for me. 10 hole does these types in most nights.  

Race 5


DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR  draws a pretty soft bunch here and drops in his 2nd back. He got around and took the time down in that one, which was the only accomplished. 8-1 is a fools price. He might be the post time fave. We all know who his half brother is and he gets a lot of play anyway on that angle alone, and he is no slouch living off of nepitism anyway. Top call if he is a go, which I don't see why he wouldn't be. 

EXEMPLAR gets lasix tonight, and that is a solid angle for a horse with big talent but big problems attached to that. On his best day, he is right there with these.....even without lasix. He also drops here and is two removed from the Preferred..where he wasn't a huge longshot but had no go. 3 weeks off is a warning sign though.

 Play Against:

 WHISKEY TAX    I will continue to play against this one until he shows me he is sound enough and gets a legit driver. So far, its 0 for 2.

The rest:

NS ROCKYS FIRST ---is very hard to like with what I see on the page. He needs to trot a flat mile and keep up. Maybe I look him over after that. No chance tonight.  

NSBUDDY HALLY---has tailed off badly lately, as he is want to do. Pass for me until I see signs he isn't heading for the field again. 

 MSOLE JACK MAGIC  ---blew up the tote board 3 back but has reverted to his follow and hang tendency again. He only is dangerous when they go tons and they come back to him. I can't count on that. I liked him and hit that 40-1 bomb, but I was off his bandwagon as soon as the win photo was taken and hung on my wall as a reminder that he is marginal. He will make 400k lifetime and be forgotten as not much stock but one who shows up and hangs around enough to make a good buck. 

WATCHMURMUR HANOVER---takes the hopples off tonight. Hmmm. Interesting. Ben B has forgotten more about trotters than I will ever know, so I will trust he has a reason for that and watch for tonight. Since his 2yo year, it has been a constant search for answers with this guy. The journey continues.   

NSMONEY MAVEN---loses Jody and the good post as he moves up without winning. Pass. 

NSJUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL---a decent show bet at a fair price for that if you like her tonight. She rarely wins even at the bottom. Not with these from the 9 hole.   

NSHER NAME IS LOLA---drops a bit, but she has been awful for weeks. Total pass for me. Not sure what it takes for her to turn it around. I don't see any evidence she is going to do that. 
Race 6

Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite:TWOMICKEYTRIP

CRAFTY MASTER lame but game. Its the old saying. Here is the poster child. I always have to remember that young horses are young horses, and claimers are claimers. Live for today. They don't have that much of a future. This guy appeared to have a big future at one point, but that is history now. Right now, he is fresh off the claim and sharp, and sound enough most nights to win off the right trip.   

CHEYENNE REIDER first off the claim. I am suspicious that he goes forward, but he just keeps proving me wrong. He is all racehorse, even though he goes sideways fast when he attempts to go forward fast. He has one of the biggest brushes for a 1/4 that you will ever see. In with a shot.  

IDEAL SHADOW  Got the perfect trip last time and took advantage of it. He seems to need it to win, and I don't bet those types when they get it and then show back up with lower odds. The time to play him was last week. Call for 3rd, maybe 2nd, but I will not go to him for the win.  

 Play Against:

TWOMICKEYTRIP  first off the claim from Adams to Moreau. From what I have seen of this horse, I will take his action. These aren't soft enough for him to dominate. Not many get claimed off of Adams, and of the few that have, Grande Seelster was one who didn't go forward a step. I think its a very bad angle to play. So, I play against it. 

The rest:

NS WEB CAM ---is probably a decent cheque getter with these off the right trip but I don't see him as a threat to beat the best in here. 

NS AMBLE OVER HANOVER --- terrible form. Pass. 

MS KEYSTONE DALTON---was good for a while, but is now leveling off. I prefer others. 

MS I SCOOT SAM---not as sharp as in the winter, and this is a tough group. He would have to turn it around. I don't see it. 

WATCH GRANDE SEELSTER---can't touch him off his current form with these.  

Race 7

Overall synopsis: Two horse race. Pick the one you want. I think it could be either. I will likely use both in the pick 4 playing the late one.

Probable Favorite:MYSTICAL JET

 ALONEINSPADES gets my top call. He raced pretty solid last time to only get picked off late, pacing in 53. Weak group again, he only has to beat my 2nd choice. 

MYSTICAL JET the likely heavy fave, I like him, but I play the better price of the top choice. It probably goes either way. He closed well last time. It's a horse race. Those two. 

 Play Against:


The rest:


WATCH  WINDSONG LORD --- good at London, hasn't done that at this track.  

MSDALTON DID IT ---unproven here. I can't play him.  

MS ONEWAYTOSANTEFE---has a minor shot if he steps up a bit and the top 2 aren't as they appear. The only threat to the top 2 in my view.  

LC ANTAR PHIL---is coming along, but he seems not up to nw2 yet. He still runs out bad in the lane. That needs to be corrected before I can touch him. 

NS STEVES LEGACY---total outsider  

NS  BALLYBUNION---bad post and he isn't much. Pass  

Race 8

Overall synopsis: Top choice is my best bet of the night. Duncan Brewer angle.

Probable Favorite:INTENDED STYLE

HE SAID  came flying late and almost got there, and Brewer has proved to me that he gets performance and results with horses. I make him my best bet of the night, as I still think the price is there with the heavy tote action on my 3rd choice and enough on my 2nd choice.  

FOREGO THE CIGAR  in the mix and I like him, but I wont take the short price on him and bet elsewhere. Certainly dangerous at this level. 

INTENDED STYLE  likely goes to a new home tonight, and has been rock solid so far. These types rarely hold form forever and while I think he is right there, this time I pick against him, and book him for those reasons.   

 Play Against:

 INTENDED STYLE see above. 

The rest:

MSP L GYRO--- non trying hanger who needs the perfect trip and even then doesn't get it done most nights. I have had enough of that from him since last winter and then some. Pass. 

MS  GENESEE---has lost some form and he didn't cash in when he had it. I like others better now.  

  NS  HOLLYWOOD HAM ---no shot with these. For real. I mean it. No shot.   

MS  RAVE ON ---better in an 8 in my view. I will look him over then if he goes back there.   

MS JAC SPADE---low percentage, trip dependent type who is hard to play because of that. I won't.   

MS SLIGHT TOUCH---have never liked him and he justified that last time by running and taking himself out of it, something he did when he raced here about 2 years ago for Carmen. Pass  

NSWILDSVILLE --total outsider. No shot from this post.   
Race 9

Overall synopsis: My data tells me a bigger longshot will win this race and the last. I start on that premise and look carefully for anything legit, while knowing I can't play them all nor ignore good form on any that might be favored. I try to be realistic in these situations, but am mindful that favorites don't always perform as expected. We saw evidence of that last week with Intimidate and Daylon Magician.

Probable Favorite: WEST SIDE STORY

DOUBLEDOWN GASS is the obvious play here. He seems to be coming into his own, trotting a much faster mile last time than any of these ever have, finishing 4th with the best at this track, two of which have beaten the best in the world a few times. He has extreme gate speed, but isn't as one dimensional as he used to be. He isn't the longshot I am looking for here, but I will use him nonetheless because he is impossible to exclude. He is as good now as ever and somewhat fresh. The one to beat. 

WINDSUN REVENGE    I have been high on this guy for a couple of months, and keeps getting better and better. Two back he was a very solid 2nd, and looked great parading. Last time he had the 10 hole and was raced for a cheque, which he got. From post 6, I would expect him to be forwardly placed and try to work a trip to give him a legit shot to get there, where he has others who wont go down easy. He might be my longshot, and I certainly include him.

WEST SIDE STORY  I know two things about this horse. First, he has a world of talent and will be a Preferred horse at some point if...the second thing I know about him is sorted out. That is that he isn't right and hasn't been since he returned from Europe. Even in winning last time, he didn't look good doing it, and wont pass this bunch if he has to be handled that way. Being that he is that good though, I have to use him on the chance he is sorted out. He could be. He might not be. I can't know nor do I care. I toss him in and what will be will be.  

 Play Against:

BURNIN MONEY is up at the level where going around them all off a perfect trip becomes much more difficult. The field is deep this time, as it was last time, and show money is likely what he gets...maybe. I'm not sure he gets that either.  

The rest:

NS ZEUS LIGHTNING---tried it first up last time, but he couldn't last. He just seems to be a few steps slower than he was early last year. I think a double drop in class is in order. Pass on him. Much prefer others.   

LC WINDSONG GEANT ---moves up with another he couldn't hold off, and another he barely got by. He is still possible, because when good, he is still as good as any of these. I will include him on my late double as one of the longshots I hope to get for a big payoff. I prefer others, but I don't discount him either.  

NS HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS---has not been able to hold off two he moves up with, and generally just doesn't go all the way off any trip. He sets the table, but rarely gets to eat with the big boys.  

 MS CHARLIE IS A JOKER---gutted out the win last time first up by grinding and just outlasting the two that got ahead of him. He meets grittier and tougher ones this time as well as those two, who he didn't blow by. I will use him only because these types step up sometimes when all logic tells you they wont. I wont let him beat me, but I don't like him for the win if I only had 3 to play. He wouldn't be one of those.   

Race 10

Overall synopsis: Anything is possible with a bunch like this, even the ones that look horrific on the program. You cannot discount any of them, and its the type of race you really have to study them all over to make sure your bases are covered. That being the case, and since I think I can get a big longshot here if I do, I will look all these over very carefully for any small thing I can find. No doubt, they are terrible top to bottom and there isn't likely much in here that ends up being better than a conditioned claimer if and when they win out of this class. Something has to win this. Who?


 MACH ON THE BEACH     Is the one I call on top, for the boxcar price. His last doesn't look thrilling but I view it in relative terms. Obviously, he is a 6 time maiden from the 10 hole tonight and CC picked another, as you would expect. But, he wasn't really driven to win last time, and he stayed in the entire way to the top of the stretch, where he seemed like he wanted to go forward but was behind a bad gaited one who made a nasty break and he had to be careful, then came between horses late to pass many in the pack. He took his time down and he has a minor shot here with a bunch who could easily come back to him as he will have to do it again from off the pace. I'm looking at 60 or 70 to 1 here and play him in the double..with others...on that chance.  

 WILDCAT LIGHTNING  driver change and first time lasix. That gets him bet, in addition to being in the mix off the program even without that. I will go against him, but call him for 2nd as he seems fairly solid but not spectacular. I am playing for price in this one, and he will be the short price. He beats me, he beats me. I will take that risk. He had his last race won but didn't have the fight. That troubles me, even with these.  

R U MACHIN ME showed some hustle out of there last time and tried to keep up to the top 2, one of which is likely out of his league, while the other has been going fast miles and has a lot more experience than him. He fought off the 3rd horse well enough to suggest he is okay and in with a shot against this bunch but will need to do more. He picks up Drury tonight. That is a positive, and he is one of many I am using on the bottom of my late double ticket looking for a big return. In the mix. Suspect like most. 

 Play Against:

A MARCOU STORY     "I’m confident his connections will address whatever was bugging him." the comment you will get in the HJ if you read that tonight. I am not. Maybe it has already been addressed and he is what he is. That doesn't mean he can't win this. On talent, he might be the best one. On stability and performance, he is the worst one. If you look into his breeding, he has that very fast Dexter Nukes maternal line, which also brings serious lameness baggage with it. 

His connections didn't fix Maxdaddy Blue Chip up, and that was the one they probably really needed to. This guy isn't much anyway. If you watch his last at Philly, he was very hard used and driven to make and keep the lead and it appears that stung him. He looked okay then, but came back the worse for wear. When Fillion asked him to get going towards the gate as it picked up speed, he was steppy lame and was the whole way. As soon as he went 3 wide and he let him pace, he blew up and looked bad running. He was dead lame. Can that be corrected? In 6 days? I suppose it could. But other than injecting and driving on, if it was something fixable, it likely would take longer and he would not be back in. Many Rocknroll Hanover's learn to stop trying when they feel pain. He looks like one of those. Good horse for Adams if he buys him. I take his short action tonight. He creates price elsewhere.

The rest:

NS JIMMY BE GOOD  --- has a very low percentage trainer. Lets start there. He adds a competent, but non driving driver tonight. He is 0 for 7 lifetime. He had live cover last time, but wasn't even close to holding it. That one stalled on the turn and in the stretch, but this guy still gapped him and couldn't pass the 3rd horse who was spent. Even in a race with rats where I look for the longshot price, he isn't that one.  

  LC ARAZI  --- is a 2nd time starter, and while his first was nothing special, he did get around okay and went in 56. That doesn't put him in the mix with these, but 54 would and 2 seconds improvement here isn't outrageous. The top 3 in that race were all fairly nice horses who would be less than even money in here. He is well bred and McNair seems to be pretty good with longshot maidens. He has a shot because these are so soft. I am using him on the bottom of my double. He wouldn't shock me, but he is suspect at this point.  

 LC REAL RAYE---has 3 tries with these before, and they weren't bearcats, but he was up the track each time. He went to KD and beat up on those twice, and comes back here not a maiden but gets to face them again. I have to make a choice of which to take and leave in this field to try and get my big double and not get shut out. So, I make the call to leave this one. He could bite me, but I am not fond of horses that need to go to a place like KD to beat up on short and not deep fields. That tells me that he lacks class, even with this less than classy bunch. He has a longshot chance, but I will play other ones instead. That is the call I make. Nervously.   

MSBIG MAGICK---was clearly over his head in his last, and was a curious entry. He came out of hiding and was competitive right away, but has not gone forward and seems to have decided he is not trying at all unless he lucks into a 2 hole ride and can pop out late into a soft last quarter. He gets worse every time. Last time, in a race within the 2nd tier, he had 2nd over and his cover went forward while he just stopped and floated. Short price tonight because he has fast lines and some of these are merely B track pretenders, but he is very beatable. I will leave him off for the win and take my chances elsewhere. I might use him in the double, but he would be my last toss on. 

NS DRAFT SEELSTER---tried Grassroots ones last time, as he did at 2, and got a similar result....clobbered. Moreau listed Fillion, but he chose against him. I can see why. He is extremely hard to like.  He might win a maiden at London or Grand River at one point. That doesn't do much for me here. Pass.  


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