Thursday, June 4, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 4, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 win on Eternal Quest in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $6 win on Innkeeper in the 2nd
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Wanda Bayama in the 4th
Best Show Bet:  $8 show on Mylittestarshine in the 3rd
Best exactor bet:
Longshot exactor bet:none
Best Exotic Bet: :
Worst Bet:  Muscle Mack  to win. $10

Race 1


exactor box  $2, 1,4,7,9                    $12
triactor pw    $1  9 with 1,2,4,5,7,8   $30

Dont Rush obviously a Gold Superfinal winner with 3 solid preps in against marginal Grassroots types is a major mismatch. So, unless he bombs, he jogs. Not a race you can play either way, unless you are keying him for the double or pick 3 with something of value. I will still rate the balance of this field, for possible other plays if you have them. 

CALL ME RICHARD got parked the mile last time in his 2nd start of the year. He was a major player last year, but also had breaking issues. He appears more of a complete racehorse now, and if the chalk bombs, he is the play. I will back up the chalk with him in the double, on the off chance he blows up and this one brings double digits in the win pool. A repeat of his start 2 back and any slight improvement on that and the trip last time would make him dangerous even if the chalk races up to his program page.

 Play Against:


The rest:

ONTHEROAD DE VIE---0 for 15 maiden who tackles stakes company now. He is hard to like for the win, but continues to improve and grind. He is very likable for the bottom of the exactor, and bombs away a winner if the chalk runs or does something bad.

JA EL STORM---is a homebred who didn't start at two, but has come along nicely now. He is likely to be a player towards the end of August, but for now, with these, he is more of a bit player. I'd watch him closely  for a possible score in NW2 on this track. He is likely to improve as he goes.

STONEBRIDGE SCORE---shows nothing to suggest he has the speed for the top end of this field. Its a curious entry. Looking for 4th money in my view. Not likely to get it. His last quarters are horrendous, even for London.

NUMBERS GAME---shows flashes of talent, and in his return this year they tried to get him to go without the hopples, but when asked for speed he proved he needed them. He was back to okay last time, but I will watch him once. This is a tough spot, and I want to see how he is in regards to a future play. Not tonight..for the top 2. He could complete the tri if the trip works out and he stays at it. Big ifs.

THE GREAT BAMBINO---outtrotted a very suspect bunch at Rideau last time, but has proved to have a lot of trouble with the types he meets at this track and in the Grassroots program. He will have to be watched. Not sure where he fits in the overall scheme of things. Not on the win ticket tonight. He doesn't fit there. For sure.

PARKHILL LANCELOT---won one of these last year at Hanover, because he appears to do one thing very well---stay trotting. That worked then. Now, he has to trot faster. He did that last time at Flamboro, but just tagging along. He has longshot possibilities here, and I'd use him in exactor and triactor boxes on the chance that he is a late developing comer who is steady as he matures.

GRANDPRIX SEELSTER---shows flashes of speed and talent at times. But, he is about 1 or 2 seconds off this bunch for now. Keep watching him. I think he will improve as this season passes and might bring a big price to the table one night when a favorite might be suspect.
Race 2


Molon Lave       $6 to win
INNKEEPER      $6 to win

MOLON LAVE goes 3rd lifetime for the father and son trotting team who have a long history of doing well with slow developing, fast improving trotters like Earl and Earl of My Dreams, to name two of many. The price will be right tonight, and starting from the inside, he will get away closer without having to work for it. He will need to take his time down 2 seconds to beat these, but based on his breeding and the likely experience and fitness improvement, he should be able to accomplish that. Top call.

INNKEEPER is a longshot stab in here for me. He took a run at the front last time, got there, then gave it up late. He has done that now several times and he is improving his overall time. At some point, he might put it all together. Dunstan rarely overrates them when he thinks he has a decent one, he classifies them to make money. He does not get paid unless they do, and the entry fee comes out of his own pocket. I play him on all of these factors at a likely very big price. He has come back this year with trotting hopples on, and that has made him steadier. Now, he needs to go farther with them.

KADABRASNEWRECRUIT  was a solid 2nd to a well meant winner last time and that is something he can build on in here with these. He beat these twice last year and speed shouldn't be a problem as they all begin to go faster. He has a legit shot, but his price will be somewhat short. I prefer others, but he is certainly in the mix if the fave doesn't produce for any reason, which is my play in here. I'd use him in the double and picks 3's, but not as a straight win play. He needs to start better. He can't pass them all when the fields are deeper, which they are likelier to be at 3 than at 2.

 Play Against:

Muscle Mack is obviously very large when he is right. If he is tonight, he should blitz these. He is now 4 in a row, and he meets a few in here who will make him work for that. I am not sold that Holliday, while competent, is a big league driver. Add that to this horse, who was bearing out bad the last time he won at this track, and the wear and tear that gets most Muscle Mass's, and I will go against him and his short price tonight.

The rest:

ITS HUW YOU KNOW---has two breaks in his last 3 lines, but he did recover nicely last time to get up for a cheque. I can't back him against some of these, but he has ability. I am watching to see if he gets sorted out. He needs to trot complete miles to beat the best of these. He has not shown me he can consistently do that yet. Pass. Dangerous though. He likely will do that at some point.

RORY---is impossible to like on multiple levels, including speed, his winless record and the foes he tackles tonight. 90-1 plus shot in here..and for good reason.

WILBUR EDEN---can't see him being any factor for any position that generates a bet. Total toss. He is in the wrong race.

DELCREST MASSY---had to go to London on New Years Eve to break his maiden, and he barely accomplished that. He has never impressed me and he is another who appears to be entered way over his head. I will have to see how he fits. As of now, in my view, he doesn't. He is better off in low conditions at Grand River where he has a legit shot at the ticket.

MUSCLES ALL OVER---gets the improved driver change for starters. But, he looked awful gaited most times last year and gets the 9 hole to start out against some who have been racing for weeks. Have to pass tonight, but I am watching to see if the driver change helps and the horse looks more viable against better which he is likely to tackle this year.


Race 3


MYLITTLESTARSHINE $4 to win, 8  to show
GAELIC PRINCESS      $4 to win

Big Rich obviously, the class of this field, somehow didn't break his maiden last year but he chased the best and made a good, not great buck, doing it. He starts out more reasonable here. I suppose that is a test to see if he can crush this bunch and justify the types of payments and entry fees he will force his owners to make to compete again at the higher end. He will be sent tonight. No babying. I would note he was very big odds in those big races and not very competitive. I view him as suspect at this point, and he wasn't sharp in the qualifier. Top call, but beware. I wouldn't bet him at short odds.

MYLITTLESTARSHINE you always have to beware of Zeron in a spot like this. I have mentioned that before. The price will be good because my top choice will get hammered down on the class and company she has kept. If you are looking to beat that one, this one is very viable. She was entered in the Peaceful Way last year but then scratched sick off just one lifetime start. That says something for the talent they think this filly has. She has a shot tonight to show some more of that. 

GAELIC PRINCESS goes first time off 3 qualifiers. The overall time wasn't that fast, but the back half was impressive and indicates overall speed. I'd give her a shot as well at a price. She has to be seen, but she isn't impossible. 

 Play Against:

LA BELLA ROSA  raced tough last time, and held 2nd against a winner she is clearly not going to be good enough to beat in the near future. She was also off stride leaving but caused a recall and got a pass on that, then bearing in bad in the lane but had enough room that is was managed. She is poor value tonight at much shorter odds in my view. She will have to be seen. She has ticking time bomb tendancies, but talent at the same time.

Big Rich  for the reasons stated above. Very short price and not a cinch to close the deal tonight.

The rest:

FLEXY MILLIE---is an 8 time maiden with several x's on the page, and not much speed when he stays at it. Can't see him being dangerous in this spot. I like his breeding though, and I'm watching for signs to play him before the pack is on to him. Just watching tonight.

MOON DANCE---will have to be seen. He appears miles over his head and unplayable on every level, even in a maiden he would be pretty tough to like.

AUNT LOTTIE---??? .That is all. I have to see something. Walker has to command respect, but so far, she looks like a B track horse.

TOP NOTCH LADY AS---would have to show a lot more than she has to even be considered against some of these. She will be watched. Not playing tonight.

DANCE FOR ME SASHA---might be live based on her last line and time improvement, but the 9 hole negates the chance she gets to do much here. Watching to see if she is a play next time.  Not tonight.

RENEGADE MAGIC---ran before the start last time, and now has requalified and got a higher end trainer taking care of things. 10 hole tonight, and that is tough on any trotter..or pacer..let alone a green trotter who couldn't handle post 3. I will watch to see if any maturity is occuring. Her finishing speed suggests that when she does get her act together, she will be a player.
Race 4

Wanda Bayama  $6 to win

Wanda Bayama a half sister to Rebecca, and also another of last year who came to this circuit and blitzed them early. Larocque was part of that as well, and the 9 hole will add some value, as well as Mach Magic being bet on promise and her breeding, as well as the last quarter of the qualifier. I will take the price, the first time Larocque, the breeding and Fillion holding the lines as well as she has also proved she can win races. Top call and only viable play in this race in my view. 

 Play Against:

MACH MAGICbred to be high end, and her qualifier suggests she has that ability when she develops. First lifetime start tonight see her hammered down, and if she gets down to the half in a minute and change, she will be hard pressed to mow them all down, and I doubt that matters to the connections anyway. I think we see her next time in a Grassroots. This is a test drive for that.

COTTONWOOD CREEK made a move to the lead last time, but she gave it up pretty easily. Her dam was a good one, and she has produced some great ones, and some not so great ones. She could be either, or somewhere in the middle. For tonight, I will go against her again. she has to show me she is more than just potential. So, far, she has not.

The rest:

BLACK WIDOW BABY---qualified okay at Barrie last time and goes first start here for Gilmour. She needs more speed and first time starters rarely win at this track. Pass and watch for now.

TWIN B SWEETHEART---was one of many last time who didn't get it done when  a lifetime maiden blew up the tote board at 25-1. She has burned chalk money and basically not performed when the chance has been there to do so. I will continue to avoid her for now on this circuit. She looks much more like a B track horse to me. Back at KD or Barrie, she might be a play at odds. I will watch to see if she looks okay for those, if she ends up there.

I C YOUR SHADOW---appears to have as much ability as she has problems. One night, she is going to overcome the problems and pace a great winning mile. Is that tonight? Maybe. I'd toss her on the pick 4, but otherwise, she is hard to play with her penchant for running at the start. She needs to be steadier to show what she can do when she is in the mix of the race. She is very much the typical Shadow Play. Feast or famine.

TERRORCAM---was first time lasix last time and was a bit better. I have always thought she looked like a prospect who needed time. I continue to watch her. She would not shock me tonight, but I need to see her go forward now. She is going in the right direction now, but she needs to keep doing that. Tonight will be a big tell on that front.

MISS SANGRIA---continues to pick up 2nd money and make a nice buck doing that. She has shown me she doesn't win or want it bad enough. Or just isn't good enough. It doesn't matter which it actually is.  It's likely one of those. It adds up to more of the same for now.

GOT SOME SPARK--has burned the chalk players twice now. The last quarter last time was really bad, and she will be a longer shot this time. I'm not sure what she is at this point. I think she will give us a better hint this time if she stalks then comes late for a share. She might take 6 or 7 to win this class and a few trips to the B's in the Grassroots will see her improve is small stages. Might be a solid condition claimer at this track come late September. The jury is still out. Need more spark would be a better name for her right now.

OK HEARTBEAT---Another chalk burned last time in the race where Arrivista blew up the tote board. From the 10 hole tonight with C. Steacy, I can't use her.


Race 5


PILGRIMS JOY                $6 to win

PILGRIMS JOY showed some speed last year, and held his own against these types while not being dangerous to the winner. He has had two starts at Flamboro now, and likely to make sure he can get around a half when the Grassroots makes that tour. He won last time, although the time was suspect, it doesn't matter. He did what he had to, and he has shown speed before. He is my upset call here for the price if the top chalks don't get it done, which I see as probable. J Mac is an upset specialist, and he drives for his man here. He likely has sat behind this one many times before.

STANLEYSONTHEWAY looked as bad last time as he looked as good the time before that. Before those two, he was green and rank and ran. He could be anything. The winner tonight, going away, or running and out of it. From the 9 hole, he will bring price. I will use him on the win for that with my top choice.

 Play Against:

IN SECRET has been showing signs, gets CC back and is as good as any in here. But a short price is coming, and he hasn't convinced me he is as good as that price suggests tonight. I will go against him, but he is legit to possibly hurt me. So far, he just doesn't go forward at the end, and that is troubling as he tries stakes colts. Some of these will. He has to up his game.

INFINITI AS raced some big trips last year and beat better than most of these have ever seen. He was tossed into the Breeders Crown and was boxcars, but he held his own, didn't make the final and was shut down....a wise move. He has come back sharp and will be heavy chalk tonight. I still think he is beatable and would go against a price like that in the first start back this year. He ships in from Hoosier, and Zeron has not driven him yet. That is always a problem when a driver doesn't know a young trotter. Little things can go wrong. Watch him parade and how Zeron gets a feel for him. I will be doing that.

The rest:

P L INTIMIDATOR---has not even come close to mastering the maiden game yet. These appear far beyond his reach right now. His wonky gait is also a problem. One of many tonight.

BOONDOCK---got the test drive for this assignment last week and picked up 3rd money and some cred to justify the stab at better. He is in the mix, but I like others better. He has longshot potential and I'd use him in the pick 4.He needs to start better if he wants to compete at this track. They don't all stop here like they do at London.

MANDEVILLE---continues to spin his wheels this year. He has not made the transition from 2 to 3 well. You see that sometimes, and you also see those find it at some point. He could put it together tonight but I will continue to watch him. He is another pick 4 option at a price. It's a mixed bad in this one. So many could go either way.

CENTURY BEHEMOTH---got around last time from the 10 hole , and draws better here. But, he just doesn't show me enough yet. I have to pass. I'd use him and many others in the pick 4.  This seems like the type of race that anything can and will happen. He could be the one. Or..not.

BUZZ---tried these last year, and got 2nd at Hanover in a runfest where he behaved and they went very slow. Last time, he took money, and went okay from the 9 hole. He has  a shot in here, as many do. Fillion/Blais is a very good combo on trotters, as most of us are aware. Using.


Race 6


FLOAT ON BY      $4 to win
show some leg    $4 to win
blissfulla cin        $4 to win

FLOAT ON BY was a pretty nice mare last year and tackled the best.  She has been awful her first two this year, and like many of Menary's mares, has simply raced bad. Whatever it was, I will use her as my very lukewarm top call for the big price tonight hoping it has been sorted out. It's a flier, but it has reason behind it.

SHOW SOME LEG got interferred with last time, but still paced an okay mile. She was better but still mid pack the time before that. She ran on her own before that. She showed high speed last year and got 3rd money in the Grassroots final. She has potential to blow up the tote board here.  She won in 54.4 over Georgian last year. If she could come back that, plus two second for this track, she is good enough off the right trip. 

BLISSFULLA CIN was tossed foolishly in with open stakes mares last time, off a month off, and was more than 100-1 when a well trounced 10th. That was a suspicious spot to put her in, and now right back, with a good post and in with her own kind,  she has upset potential. She has 4 lifetime wins and a driver who knows how to motivate. 

 Play Against:

INVEST IN ART  made a big move to the lead last time and then barely held on as the one coming to her was bearing in and had to be checked. That was enough. She comes right back, and will be hammered down tonight at heavy chalk. I am not sold she doubles up. She is not that impressive.

The rest:

BETTOR OUT WEST---started poorly last time and did very little to recover. She was much better the time before, but I didn't like her at London, and she simply doesn't do enough most nights  to win in a spot like this. Pass and I want to see what she does now the 3rd time with these. She has to do more and show she can work for it. So far, she has not shown that.

MO MOLLY BLUE CHIP---a well bred mare who shows fast last quarters, but hangs when she is in position to win. Watching tonight. She needs to show she can take advantage of winning trips to win. She broke her maiden last year off a perfect trip at Three Rivers. That wont cut it here. She has never beaten good horses. She meets several tonight. Pass.

BUSINESS AS USUAL---like many of Casie's the last two weeks, she has been flat. She got up  2 starts back, but hung last time. I can't play her, but I wont play against her either. The jury is out on her stock at the moment. I don't like what I see so far.

WINDSUN CHANEL---could not beat maidens at this track, even though she was in perfect spots and positions to do that a few times. She ran making a move at London last time, and back here, she has to show she is better than she has to this point. Next stop Grassroots, and I want to see if she is going forwards or backwards. Right now, she is in neutral.

WARRAWEE QUALLY---has been well discussed before.  No shot in here.

D G NICKABOCKER---was also wiped out last time, but paced back to back 27 quarters to close it out. Bad post again. If she had drawn better, I might take a stab at her. She didn't. Watching for next time. Not tonight.
Race 7


Eternal Quest  $10 to win

ETERNAL QUEST sharp mile as the chalk last time to one who doubled up with ease. I think I get a price if they hammer Macho Mass. I will take it with Fillion gassing him again and trying to hold on. He can do just that. 

Lets Be Honest ships back to Ben B, who had him last year, off some mediocre Balmoral lines. I'd toss him if Ben B hadn't had him last year, but because he had, and he showed some talent then, I will watch him, think he has a shot, and view him as a no play. I'd add him to my top call, who is my best bet of the night, in the pick 4 as a backup play if he bombs. He tried Gold ones last year, but starts out more reasonable tonight, like many have on this program. He is very dangerous on all those variables.

GRONK showed a lot of talent last year for team Hayter and Jody and was raced easy last time to pick up 2nd with this race obviously on the dance card. Another I'd use in the pick 4 behind my top play.

 Play Against:

MACHO MASS will get lots of play tonight on his previously displayed talent and the switch to P Mac tonight. That he didn't go to CC here is curious. Also, the horse is still a one time winner who has had trouble when moved up. I dont think he justifies the short price tonight. He can win, and is a solid prospect, but maybe a start away from justifying less than even money. He has tackled bearcats the last two, and that will lead others to think that independent of them, he would have won that class on his own by now. I am not so sure of that.

The rest:

GUSCREST---is very hard to like in this spot for multiple reasons. He will be boxcars if you want him. I don't. If he picks up a minor cheque, it will be a good night for him.

CHEQUE THE MAGIC---0 for 6, gets Holliday and can't beat suspect nw2 types at the B's. Can't see this one winning this race.

NEW MUSCLE AS---shows up with the rest of the stable of his trainer, and while he won a maiden at Hoosier, that would be a 2:05 mile over London. Pass on him. He seems over his head in this spot.

JAYPORT ON TH EDGE---3yo, first lifetime start off one so so qualifier.  Can't see it.

IRISH SCOTCH---showed promise last year but has not come back sharp. Bit player until he turns it around in my view. Not even sure he will, but I will watch him for now.


Race 8


Ennistymon           $8 to win
Zip Code Envy       $8 to win

ENNISTYMON goes 2nd start as a 3yo. She is a well bred mare who got what she needed last time...a trip. Now, she will be raced and has showed she is good enough with the right trip. I will call her for the win tonight with the right type of trip. I think she has some talent.

Zip Code Envy gets the 7 hole with the scratch and her gate speed will come into more significant play in this one. If not for my top play, I'd single her. She is very live in this pretty soft bunch.

SOUTHWIND GEISHAhas really come alive in the last month and just missed in a blanket photo last time in the final at London. She has a big shot, but I don't like the price I will likely see tonight, so I pass on playing her. Dangerous for sure if she can sustain that progress. She looks to be a player in the OSS this year.

 Play Against:

OK HALLELUJAH beat some really soft maidens last time with one okay move and that wont cut it here. The move from maidens to NW2 is really tough for most, and even tougher this time of the year when many returning stakes horses didn't manage to win 2 races at 2. I will take her action.

ARRIVISTA HANOVER finally popped her cherry last time against a horrid bunch of pretenders. Up with these, she is drowning in deep water to even get a cheque.

The rest:

JORDIES HOPE---bombed away against maidens by getting the jump on them and bottoming them out. She has settled in as a good bit player in this class. More of the same here, and likely for a while. 

Ainsleynoelle---was wiped out last time, but gave it up on her own the time before. She just doesn't have enough in my view to go all the way with the type she has to face in this class. Good B track mare if she tries them again.

ANNA SANTANNA---wrong track.

MESMERIZE BLUECHIP---got parked the mile last time in this class after breaking  her maiden. She might be a bit short of these for at least a while, and the post hurts her enough this time to toss her outright.


Race 9



One Direction if he behaves he would tower over this bunch, on speed and likely class. But, behavior is an issue for him. He is better now, but still suspect. He tosses his head constantly, and if he were to get jammed up in the hole, he could be in the safety lane in no time. Jones is trying not to send him, because long term, that does him no good. If he did, he would daylight them. I doubt he will. So, he needs a clean trip. Your call. I just watch this race on this variable.

THOUGHTFUL LEADER will Mario race him to win this time? You would hope so. I'm not sure enough that I will play his somewhat short price. One more look at him and I will be on board all summer if he actualizes that potential.

MUSCLE UP THE GOAL was a big time serious horse last year, and based on his back half last time, he is a big player at short odds tonight. I can't play him at those odds. He should win if he is put into play. This might be more of a paid tune up for the golds, as many are doing that tonight. Pass and watch. No play either way. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

UP THE ALLEY---still a maiden who runs and has enough talent that he will be good one day. I will keep watching.

DEMAND AN ANSWER---fast improving maiden who might step up if the chalk bombs. I will watch. I'm not sold he is solid yet.

WHAT A PEACH---first lifetime start. No thanks.

the outside 3---all look like rank outsiders looking for a cheque. Can't see any being at all dangerous for the ticket.

Race  10


Rob Roy    $4  to win

Go Get Bruce    $4  to win

Rob Roy  is a longshot play. I have always thought he has major talent, but just can't put it together. He will at some point. Maybe tonight. Moreau has had him for a while now and I will take a flyer that he gets it together tonight. Risky for sure. He could easily keep blowing up.

GO GET BRUCE raced great to break his maiden, and flat as a pancake last time when moved up. Hopefully it was just sickness or something like that. These are pretty soft, so I list him 2nd for a bit of a price from the outside. Tough call. He could go either way.

 Play Against:

SEEKING STEVEN is 3 weeks out of the box and off a long ship. He raced great at Pompano, but maiden trotters are few and far between there and very easy to boss around. He meets some talent here. I will play that he can't handle them at the short price. 

The rest:

TOP DOLLAR---just hasn't performed so far. The potential keeps getting farther away and he just goes around the track. He will pop at some point. A trainer change is likely in order soon.  Pass and book for me.

Race  11


All Chocolate           $6  to win

Kikiskissincousin   $ 6 to win

All Chocolate   gets my top call. She attracted a claim last time after her huge trip the start before. As predicted, she landed 3rd last time and that meant sit, which resulted in a boxed in trip to the wire. She might be even better with the new gas, and the new driver. She still appears live to me and knew how to win races at this track last year just fine. Top call but she needs some luck.

Kikis Kissincousin Also got the claim entered last time but didn't finish well. Although racing well at times for Montini, she was on a line bad most nights. Maybe the new trainer can do something about that. If so, she is very dangerous with this weak bunch. She is the one to beat in my view, if she is improved.

 Play Against:


The rest:

the balance---only Larjon Laura would strike me as one who could upset my plays if she were to get the right trip. She is risky. She is so trip dependent and frankly, some nights, just doesn't try. She was a 5 claimer for a long time for  a reason.

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