Thursday, May 14, 2020

Gulfstream Park Racing Journal May 14,2020

R1

El Scorcho
( EMPIRE MAKER - PALOOZA, BY HENNESSY )

El Scorcho continues to drop as she makes his 3rd lifetime start, this time diving from 50k to 12k in somewhat of a panic move. The bloom is clearly off the rose for this former 140k two year old purchase. Its time for her connections to bail out on her and take their losses. Will it workÉ Will it be enough
Her first two starts yielded back to back 9th finishes, but at least this time she comes back within a month, while she had more than 4 months between start 1 and 2. Otherwise, she returns at the same distance and still on the turf. That suggests the trainer thinks he has her figured out right, just that she is cheap and the only answer is to seek out weaker competition in the hope that helps her.
She was a FTS on Dec 8th in a MSW, saddled with post 11, broke okay but then settled mid pack to back pack, travelled along even and went the rest of the way that way. She could be given a mild pass in that she was green and had little chance to start forwardly. She was entered back January 19th under the exact same conditions, with post 3, but didnt run.
Her second start, on April 16th in a maiden claimer 50k, with an apprentice jockey aboard gave her a starting spot in post 8 for the class drop. As with her first start, she took no significant money at any point.
In both starts, in the post parade, she showed little interest in being out there and was indifferent at best. She is likely to be a pack runner with any kind of decent horse until she bottoms out at the B tracks at a lower level where she can run that way and simply keep going like that while others fade on lack of ability.
Last time she broke in the air, stumbled a shade, but then was right into stride and in the same position she was in her debut start. She was wide on turn, given every chance to make a run, but stayed within the back pack and closed with them while not passing.
She gets a solid post here, but gives every indication she wont make front and is destined to run with the pack again, although she runs on well enough that the drop should elicit some kind of small slice.
She takes a major class drop here, but to be honest, she never looked like she was even close to those, so they are just cutting to the chase and avoiding two minor drops and going right to the potential best spot. These are tough times. You cant afford to run where you think the horse is iffy. Unfortunately for her, while many are not taking as drastic a class drop here, they are going down as well. She will have to improve her starting and determination variables to beat them all. I dont see that happening.
I would go against her as chalk. That is assuming she goes off lukewarm chalk, which is likely.


R2

7 first time starting 2yo. They will have to be seen, otherwise, a pass race unless something takes insane win money. We will see.

R3

Bahamian Prince

( BAHAMIAN SQUALL - SUPER TROOPER, BY POSSE )

Bahamian Prince is a 3yo with 2 life wins from 7 starts, and 3 top 3 finishes in his last 3 starts as he slices his tag in half and faces straight claimers. He won a straight 35k claimer at this distance and surface 4 back, and has maintained good form. On paper, he looks very tough to go against.
Last time, for 50k optional, he ran a solid 2nd best to one who had beat him before. He has solid leaving speed, but not as good as the best in that type of race. He will stalk otherwise and tries hard start to finish, so any variable now in his favor, for example, avoiding that one and dropping in class, certainly enhances his win chances. Post 9 might hurt him again, so he is no cinch, but as tactical and versatile as he is, he is tough to beat. I wouldnèt however, take less than 7-5, which he might bring.

R4

Tiger's Back

( GHOSTZAPPER - NATIVE STRIKE, BY SMART STRIKE

Tiger's Back makes his 4th lifetime start for Dale Romans, his second in a claimer as he goes lower from 25 to 16k searching for the right level. He switches back to the dirt and cuts back to 6f, which is how he started out when he made his debut in MSW. He has been consistent about racing once every 4 weeks, but this time comes back in about 2 weeks.
He was a 370k yearling, but that high hopes ship has now sailed and at best he looks like a mid range claimer. First he has to win a race to find his level.
They tried turf and longer last time. He made a mediocre post parade appearance, as he seems disinterested, and showed the same in the gate, then getting off slowly as if he wasnt paying full attention. From there, near the back, he ran even, with little vigor, then was up for 5th money, nowhere near the top 3, and not gaining on the 4th horse. He shows little in that effort to think a minor class drop gives him winning form. He did the exact same in his first lifetime start, and in both races, was on the right line early in the race. Not sure how low he has to go, but this doesnt look low enough.

R5

Stone Hands

( TAPIZAR - HONEYCOMB GUS, BY IS IT TRUE )

Stone Hands wins his share and is a somewhat consistent claimer type. He continues to go lower, as he has become the type that picks up slices, and hasnt won a race in 2 years, when he was a borderline stakes horse and could take down legit allowance horses. That day seems to have passed.
He broke sharply last time, moved up to engage the loose leader, stalked and pushed him, but was all done before the 3/4 and basically eased before the last turn and cantered under the wire. On the class drop this time, he cuts back a shade, but considering his record the last year and how he finished last time, he doesnt have the form to fend off stiff challenges, which he is likely to get here.
He was on the right line bad last time, and the farther he went the worse he got. His previous start, at only 6.5f, he blasted out, gained the pocket, pulled on that one but was swallowed up mid stretch and ended 4th, on the right line horrible towards the tote board. I cant see him getting a mile while blasting out with any kind of challenge.

R6

Fresco

( FREUD - LADY RENAISSANCE, BY SMART STRIKE )

Fresco , a 2nd time starting homebred, has missed almost 4 months but comes back at the safe distance and surface after finishing 3rd in her debut. In that race, she made a very nice pre race and post parade appearance, was fractious and reluctant to load but did go in after a few tries, She was eager to get near the lead, but a few others were faster, then settled and followed in, trapped at times, with little place to move until she angled out on the last turn and took her shot. The winner beat her to the punch, but she almost ran down the leader who finished 2nd. A solid first effort.
She has worked steady and evenly in the interim, and looks very tough as she has experience to go with her likely stakes caliber talent.

R7

Maserati Man

( BIONDETTI - CLASSY CITY LADY, BY CARSON CITY )

Maserati Man, the lukewarm 3-1 ML choice, broke his maiden 3 back in a claimer in his 3rd lifetime start, and has picked up on the board finishes in his next two at this level or thereabouts. His speed figure shot up considerably in that last start, when he finished 2nd. That was 2nd off a layoff and he just seems the type that improves as he races on. He raced for a 50k tag then, but is in on the optional 32k here.
In that April 4th race, he ran out well, but def was veering right coming out, then was wide most of the way, 4 high on the turn, as he and the winner pounced on two who went at each other and were fried. He looked to have the winner beat mid stretch, but hung enough near the line to let him come back on. He was trying to switch onto his right lead, and did, but switched back and that is when he faded a shade. Hard to fault his effort, but the need to go to the right lead and then not keep on with that is troubling for a horse with a sire like Biondetti. That was also something he did on his return start just before that. He tries hard and is athletic and fast enough, but relying on that sort of action catches up with most, and this will be his 3rd start back and facing tough relative competition.