Overall Bets: $ $
Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet: $10 on Push Back in the 6th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Classic Martine in the 5th
Best Place Bet:$10 on Push Back in the 6th
Best Show Bet: $10 on Conversation Boy in the 8th
Worst Win Bet: $10 on WiggleitJiggleIt in the 12th
Race 1 $10 show on I Got To Boogie
Race 4 $10 place on Pierce Hanover
Race 5 $10 place on Bee A Magician
Race 6 $10 place on Ellis Park,$10 win,show on Push Back
Race 7 $10 show on Track Master D
Race 8 $10wps on Conversation Boy
Race 11 $15 win, place on Sassa Hanover
Race 12 $10 win on In The Arsenal
Race 14 $10 show on Mr Dennis
NS--- no shot
WATCH---watchIng for a future play
Overall synopsis: Tempting chalks, but I think its something mid range that gets it done when all is said and done. I go to that angle here.
Probable Favorite: HOPE FOR PADDY
THATLL BE FRANNY will be my top call with Jody. The old mare is coming around again, and when she is good, she is as good as any of these and probably better than most. Jody is a good fit for her in my view.
MSHOPE FOR PADDY goes 3rd time Moreau and takes another drop. She has the recent back class to suggest she is about to hit the sweet spot, but they likely changed trainers for a reason, and that reason is they are searching for answers on this mare..and so far, it is answers they aren't finding. I will list her 2nd, but I am suspicious for now. Bad win value price in my view.
MSWINDSONG JACOBA leaves and sits most nights, and that works out for her here and there. It can here too. She wouldn't shock me, but I like my top 2 just a bit better. I'd use her in the pick 3 on the longshot, trip out angle. She would need that to have any shot. She tried it two times ago, and she tripped out. Last time, she tried it and got a shuffle. She needs it, is dependent on it, and you need odds to play it. I'd say 10-1 minimum.
EMPRESS DEO takes the big drop for very low percentage trainer Holland. She simply isn't doing enough, and her miles even at that level don't put her in good stead with these. I will take her action. She has one big move, but doesn't sustain. Maybe one more level down, she might hit the sweet spot. Maybe.
MSI GOT TO BOOGIE---almost got it done last time for Team B, but, she is a very low percentage winner and she did what low percentage types do---come up short. These are slightly deeper. I go against her. She has a minor shot.
NSSHADYS M THREE---isn't good right now, and she is another very low percentage winner. Pass.
MSADDISON BAY---got up for 2nd last time, but she just isn't doing enough for my liking. Not enough to take all of these. It worked a step lower, but there are too many to pass up at this level.
NSWILDCAT HANNA---did little last time and draws bad again. Pass for now.
NSST LADS PENNY LANE---passed them all one level down, much like Addison Bay did. Back in with these, and post 10, she has too much to do and not enough power to pull it off.
Overall synopsis: Hard to really discount anything in here. I went for price and for ones that haven't been horribly hard used the last few. Freshness sometimes helps with these. A different one every week.
Probable Favorite: THUNDER STEELER
LCPISTON BROKE made his usual big late move last time. This time he didn't hang, as he is want to do, but came from too far back. With the better post, I expect Trevor to push him a bit out of there to have him in a position to take advantage late. He will get it done one of these times, and the price will be right tonight. You need odds on this type of horse, and I can see at least 3 of them taking pretty significant money, which puts him in the 6-1 to 8-1 range, which is enough value to make me risk playing a win shy, hang at the tote board type. These are just soft enough to come back to him. Not the true Preferred types like Shamballa, Thinking Out Loud and Vegas Vacation. Those he can't beat. Top call.
LCMUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS is pretty sharp, has been for a long time and draws inside Thunder Steeler, which is a big plus for him because he needs to get to the top and not get killed trying. He does run out bad in the stretch and that usually costs him up at this level. Solid inclusion in the double or pick 3, but I go with my top choice for the price and win. In the mix for sure at a bit of a price.
MSWINDS OF CHANGE was ready to pop last time and was full value for the win. He steps up to the top class, but he hung out with the best last year and was not far off them. He could beat them all, but I will call him for 3rd in this spot. I'd use him in the double if I play that.
THUNDER STEELER basically has wired them twice in a row, and is sharp, no doubt. But he meets a few tougher ones here, and he has had trouble with them before. I like a few better than him, so I feel safe taking his action. He also loses Gingras here. McNair does well with him too, but he has gotten hung a few times driving him up at this level.
LCCAMAES FELLOW---pops up every now and then and returns to top form. Then, he hibernates. I like many in here better than him. I will keep looking for his next score. I missed the last one and should have had it. There will be a next time. Not tonight in my view.
MSULTIMATE BEACHBOY---hooks a softer group here, but I prefer others. He is hard to discount, but you make choices in races like this. Ticket player for sure, but for the win, I've gone elsewhere in a very competitive tilt.
LCDUC DORLEANS---seems to tackle the best often, but doens't really justify that, and even back here, he needs so many things to go right for him to beat them. I can't see it. Longshot chance, but very longshot chance.
Overall synopsis: See comments. Beat Canepa? Good luck with that.
Probable Favorite: CANEPA HANOVER
CANEPA HANOVER very tough to go against him and his tiny price. He stays flat, he daylights this bunch.
MSFrench Laundry---the obvious one to play if the monster chalk falls apart. I wont bother with the tiny exactor play here. I key Canepa and bridge him to something else. This guy figures for 2nd. The end.
Probable Favorite: PIERCE HANOVER
GO DADDY GO was all systems go from the rail last time but couldn't last against some tough customers. It happens. I still like him in this spot and for the season overall. He is tough as nails, can take serious air, and when he makes the lead he wont give it up easily. I give him a pass for last week, and obviously he misses all the tougher ones who made the final. I'd want 9-5, and I think that is reasonable.
REVENGE SHARK went a huge trip last time, just missing the final. For a price, if anything in here beats my top choice, its this guy with Scotty Z, who is one of the best at Mohawk, and maybe in the top 10 drivers in the world currently. His final quarter speed while still working for it is very impressive. Come Meadowlands Pace time, he could be a serious player to win that.
LCPHYSICALLYINCLINED paced a monster back half..in vain, to a superstar winner whose driver got fined for putting up that first half. He is live for the ticket if he gets a different trip and pace scenario to come at.
PIERCE HANOVER might go off as the post time fave. I thought his split was the easiest of the night, and he didn't get up. In relative terms, I maintain he is short of the best of this class, and that included Go Daddy Go, and eventually, and probably soon..Split The House. There are others in here too who look as good or better. If raced easily enough, he could make the ticket. That is the best I see for him tonight.
MSSPLIT THE HOUSE---is very green and last time it came back to bite him. It doesn't get much easier here. I will take the short action on him. A month from now, I would not.
NSDRACHAN HANOVER---doesn't strike me as anything more than an OSS grassroots type. I wouldn't play him in a Gold, and certainly not with these. Pass.
NSROCK N ROLL WORLD---gave it up late last time and I don't see him as top shelf in against some of these. Nice NJSS horse.
NSTHE WAYFARING MAN---has pretty much tipped his hand that he isn't a Grand Circuit horse and his connections wont accept that. You see a couple of those a year, and his is one. When he finds a soft spot and the odds are right, there will be a time to get back on his bandwagon. That night isn't tonight.
MSTRACEUR HANOVER--- isn't nearly as dangerous without Corey Johnson's cheater junk. Nuff said.
Overall synopsis: I am playing for the upset of the two bearcat World Champions. Its a risky play, but she is capable and can if she shows up. She did last year. Tetrick is one of the best out there. He wins the big ones.
Probable Favorite: BEE A MAGICIAN
LCCLASSIC MARTINE I'm hoping she gets the perfect trip behind the two big speed demons and they duel, then kill each other off and let her slip by them. For the price obviously.
BEE A MAGICIAN she was awesome last time. Truly awesome. She is a World Champion and nobody can take that away from her. Albatross went down. Bret Hanover went down. They all go down at times when there is enough legit ones to do something about it when they have suspect nights. I will take that risk. Having a challenger like Shake It Cerry and another like Classic Martine to deal with makes her a decent enough play against. Risk/reward.
MSSHAKE IT CERRY---just how good is she? Tonight we find out when she looks Bee A Magician in the eye. I am not sure myself.
MSCHARMED LIFE---is one I'd thought of going to instead of Classic Martine, on the wake up call, but I just couldn't go there. She is too flat for me right now.
Probable Favorite: ELLIS PARK
PUSH BACK is my top call with Yannick. This horse has one wicked brush but you have to use it right. That is right up Yannick's alley. He drops quite a bit here, but there are several who will take money and keep his price up where I am looking for it to be.....6-1 or so. Top call.
MSAPPRENTICE HANOVER is just about ready to get it done, but I can't play him until I see some grit, or a bigger price. I don't see the price coming tonight, and I like my top choice quite a bit. Call for 2nd, which is a spot he finishes a lot. Talent is there.
ELLIS PARK continues to take money and burn it. I have always liked him but he is so trip dependent and that continue to hurt him. He is still bearing in enough also that winning becomes an issue against tough foes, which he meets here.
LCA J CORBELLI---drops huge, but needs to. This isn't the Preferred, but there are several who hang out there and some who have won that. I still think he is a very bit player with these. One more level down, or if this class shakes out softer in the future, I look him over. Too many he can't beat in here.
NSCAPTIVE AUDIENCE--- rarely wins with anything he faces. Some of these are very tough. Pass.
NSHES A SENSATION---is playing in the wrong sandbox if you asked me. When fall comes and he moves around the Non winners classes, I will be playing or playing against him then. Not bothering here. Big longshot again.
NSBOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL--- really? No thanks.
NSROCK ME AMASTREOS---miles over his head with this bunch.
NSASLAN---too many options to think about in this race to be playing this guy from out in a bad post. He doesn't have the go to pass these types for a bad start. Another day maybe.
Probable Favorite: SOUTHWIND AMAZON
SOUTHWIND AMAZON is another in a long line of Adams charges who you cannot tell how good he will be. He moves up here, but does that even matter? Top call, but suspect as always. I keep saying that, he keeps beating me.
TRACK MASTER D Is the next one in line if you don't like the favorite. He is the type that lives to race in a class like this.
MSSING FOR ME GEORGE hangs around most nights and has enough class that he can get it done even from the outside if the trip is favorable. I think he isn't up to the top 2. Minor shot.
MSJ JS DELIVERY--- has a legit shot from the rail, but these are a bit tougher and deeper than he is used to. I like others better. He appears to be a very nice OSS Gold horse and this is a race to keep him sharp.
NSALEXIE MATTOSIE---pass on him for now. When the fields get deep, he sinks to the bottom of the lake.
MSIDEAL JET---picks up Tetrick..so that is a plus. He has a shot and races well as a longshot it seems. I prefer others, but I am watching him as I feel a score is coming.
LCRESISTANCE FUTILE---just doesn't seem to be the same anymore. I can't go to him until I see a long price and some form. I see neither currently when he continues to head to the B's to get his wins.
NSWAZZUP WAZZUP---moves back up, and I'm not sold he can compete at of now. He didn't have to beat much last time and nobody even bothered to make him work for it.
MSMAH SISH N---second start over the track for a horse who was good at one time. I wouldn't discount him, but the top 3 are better than him for now. If they happened to bomb or get run at, he could pass them. I don't see it.
NSBURNING SHORE---bad post kills any minor chance he had. Another day, I'd look at him.
CONVERSATION BOY seems to be coming around. The talent has always been there, but he has issues. I think he is putting it together and this is a very good spot for him. Top call, and would have been my longshot of the night if not for all the scratches.
THINKOFAGAMEPLAN looks rock solid here, and gets post 6 with all the scratches. He is the one to beat, but I think my top choice can take him if he behaves for the price, and that is how I play it.
LCAMERICAN ROCK---has looked horrid for some time. I suppose he could turn it around, but I have seen no evidence of that. I continue to watch him post parade for a sign of a turn. He looked fabulous warming up the night he won the stakes final parked the mile. It's been all downhill since then.
MSVELOCITY DRIVEN---keeps showing signs, but he doesn't get it done. I almost went to him tonight, but I like my top pick much better and the 2nd picks looks a few steps ahead of him too.
MSSPORTSMANSHIP---ran at London, making a move at a tough foe, and that was 3 weeks ago. If he is right, he has a shot. I will play against him for now. Watching.
NSHOUSE OF TERROR---must be seen, but he looks a cut below these to me
NSGRITS N GRAVY---doesn't appear to belong with these.
Probable Favorite: YAGONNAKISSMEORNOT
YAGONNAKISSMEORNOT my top call. just a shade too late last time, but she is very legit. As long as the 2nd choice isn't sky high on the drugs Adams is feeding her and can't be passed, she takes this bunch.
LADY SHADOW Adams. Gas. Win? Maybe. Price? No. Pass. Me.
COLORS A VIRGIN lucked into the win when the winner was dq'd last time. She is okay, but the others seem to be ahead of her as she makes the transition from 3 to 4. Come fall, she might be the Queen Bee.
ANNDROVETTE has not been the same since the trainer switchover. I wont go near her until I see any kind of a turnaround.
LCKRISPY APPLE---stopped last time and I can't use her in this deep final. She is not currently good.
NSWAASMULA---hunting for a cheque. She has come a long way. These are even farther in the horizon.
LCSANDBETWEENURTOES---was better than I thought she would be last time, and therefore, she has a shot here. I like my top 2 picks clearly ahead of the rest, but she is right there with the balance and should make the ticket.
LCWEEPER---didn't live up to the hype last time and I think a cut below the top tier here.
NSTABLE TALK---over her head.
NSSKIPPIN BY---might be dangerous if she had a better post. She does not.
Overall synopsis: I listed most in here with a longshot chance. It's that wide open. I wouldn't take less than 5-1 on any of these.
LCART HISTORY dont know him, but I like his lines. Could be many in here. I went to him as a horse with a better post and some very fast lines. Lukewarm.
LCGREAT VINTAGE lots of back class.
NSEVENIN OF PLEASURE---seems in tough with these based on current form. But, he did beat these and win this last year at bombs away odds. I go elsewhere tonight. Tough and deep bunch.
LCBETTORS EDGE---was very good last year, but has flattened out this year. This doesn't appear to be a good spot for him. Longshot, but with his kind, he could turn it around any time. Beware.
LCVEGAS VACATION---took some ugly steps leaving last time and has not come back as good as he was as a colt. I am suspicious about his form and durability at this point.
LCTHINKING OUT LOUD---seems to show up some nights, and not others at this point. Pass for me. I'm not sure he hasn't lost a step or two.
LCSTATE TREASURER---is as tough as they come and can never be discounted. In with a shot if the fractions and flow give him a shot.
LCBETTOREVER---is one I might have played on top if he had a better post. Too much work for him to do tonight in a very deep field. But, one to watch for later in the summer.
LCDOCTOR BUTCH --- is not one I can back from the 10 hole when he seems to need the front and has trouble going all the way with better ones if pushed. If he had drawn better, I would have used him.
SASSA HANOVER to me, if she is right, she is much the best here. I have been waiting on her to come into her own, and she did that last time. You get a price here because JK Shesalady still has lots of backers. Take it while you can. Last likely chance to get that.
MOONLIT DANCE certainly has a very good shot in here. She closes like a shot and is the one who appears to be improving the fastest. My top choice just appears to be too much right now. Call for 2nd, but she is a very nice filly.
WRANGLER MAGIC is hard to ignore as she continues to improve by leaps and bounds each week. I could see her nabbing 2nd, and if my choice goes down, she could be the one. Very dangerous.
JK SHESALADY excuses are for losers. She got beat, she isn't as good. It happens all the time. Not saying she can't win, or win again, but I think the party is over for her.
NSBETTER SAID---cant see her being dangerous.
DOCTOR TERROR---certainly raced legit enough to be here, but the top 3 or 4 are beyond her reach in my view. Could make the ticket if things go her way and one of them isn't good tonight. She will be around.
SOLAR SISTER ---is a very nice OSS horse, but these are another level and maybe beyond her reach. Unless I see more from her, that is what I will stick with.
the outside 3 ---appear way over their heads with this bunch.
synopsis: I am not sold on the wonder horse, nor the 2yo champion, and pick the two I think are the ones to do it now, tonight, when they race the race.
IN THE ARSENAL has not been beat yet this year, and each time does what it takes to get it done. He has Sears, who is a big time, big money race driver. Count me in. Others are getting serious chatter, so the price is still likely to be there. I want 7-2 and should get it.
WAKIZASHI HANOVER is very hard to ignore the way he blitzed them with ease last time. Can he do that again? He could. But, I like another a bit more than him. If that one isn't top shelf, this one is likely the winner. I will call him for 2nd in a tight one.
WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT is a fantastic horse. No doubt about it. His win in Indiana in the pouring rain and slop was off the charts. That brings a 3-5 price tonight, and I'm not sure he is that good. He easily could win this, but he will have to work for it and these are the best out there. I go elsewhere for my winner.
ARTSPEAK. --didn't look good on the track, wasn't holding his cover and was easily passed by the winner. Post 10 now, and he is really up against it. I can't see him getting on the ticket. He was a great 2yo, but those don't always hold form well into their 3yo year.
NSGOOD FRIDAY THREE ---has come along quickly, but these are another level I don't think he has. He could get a very nice payday staying on the plyons and racing for 4th, which is likely the plan.
BETTING EXCHANGE---tried but couldn't go all the way with them last time. I don't see him doing it this time either. Too many good ones here. As this race goes, its a very deep field. He appears on the bottom half of that hierarchy. If he gets 5th, its a good night and payday.
YANKEE BOUNTY---lucked into the final. No shot in here this time.
ARQUE HANOVER ---got 2nd but was no threat to the winner and looks over his head here.
HURRIKANE ALI-- No.
PENJI HANOVER---If he had drawn better, I might have listed him for a pretty good shot. He would have to do it from far behind, and I don't think he can. Could make the ticket if things work out. Down the road, he might be a serious player.
GREYSTONE LADYLIKE price play from the inside.
REGIL ELEKTRA in with a shot based on how she has raced lately. One of many.
PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY was running in horrible going to the gate last time and still looks bad on the track. She simply has not worn well over time. Pass and take her action tonight.
D GS PESQUERO---first time lasix for Carmen. He loves that angle. Its his go to training system when they dont perform. We shall see if it work here.
BEACH GAL ---still goes fast, but is another that isn't the same right now. Whatever it is, I think she will turn it around, but I can't play her right now.
AMERICAN IN PARIS ---has no zip right now and I don't know what it will take to turn her around. I have given up on her for now.
MARLEE B ---got the perfect steer last time and took advantage of it. Post 10 hurts her and I cant use her for a short price from out there.
MR DENNIS could take them coast to coast, and I like him to do that, but at the short price he brings, I wont play him. Pass and watch the race.
THE REV draws better and he has a legit shot, but he is just not reliable enough, and again, a short price makes me avoid him too.
not rated ---handicapping fatigue has set in.
BUCKEROO 2nd off the shelf. He comes so late, I will wait one more time. He appears live and heading towards good form.
BIG MOMENT very tough customer, and he is the one to beat.
not rated--- 2 horse race in my view.