Overall Bets: $ $
Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet: $10 win on American In Paris in the 3rd
Best Longshot Win Bet: $8 win on Make Way in the 4th
Best Place Bet: $8 place on Blushing Promise in the 4th
Best Show Bet: $10 show on Machal Jordan in the 7th
Best exactor bet: none
Longshot exactor bet:none
Best Exotic Bet: : none
Worst Bet: Anywhere With You to win. $10
LUCK O THE IRISH has shown flashes of talent, and gave it a good go in the Superfinal last year, hanging in for 3rd money when all was said and done. He has been brought along slow and was a solid 2nd last time in the Gold at London. He needs to trip out here, but if he does, he is capable enough at a price, assuming the two I am playing against take the expected tote money. Top call of the 3 I think have an upset chance to sweeten the early double.
WIRE ME CASH
is a very erratic type, who can go off running for a few starts, then turn it right back around and blow up the tote board, as he did in the winter. His trainer/driver is gaining a rep for winning with this type at a big price, and I could see that tonight if things go right and the horse behaves. Another to use in the double. Longshot chance.
GRANA PADANNO makes his 3rd start back of the year. He had no hope against Jetpedia and One Direction last time, who are far beyond his reach. But, he is going forwards. He is a big stretch tonight as well, but not as much as last time. I am tossing him onto the double. Beware of the French Connection on these types.
SOUTHWIND STRYKER is the obvious class of this race. He beat far better than most of these will ever in his career. That was then. Now, he is first start back on a new journey. The qualifier was good, but meaningless. He draws the 10 hole, and has very little reason to do anything but head to mid pack or farther back and then move on the turn and brush. That could still result in a win, but more likely a minor ticket placement. If this was a month from now, and he had drawn to the middle, I would certainly not take his action. Tonight, I will.
BOLI was solid and large with a back half in 56.2 to take down the maiden in his return this year. (I will note that Gronk was 2nd in that one, and he appears to be a following, less than impressive rat.) Then, back at London in a Gold, he was back to his erratic, bad behaving ways of last year. Which one shows up tonight? I have no clue, and I don't think his connections do either. I will take that action at a somewhat short price. The goal tonight will be to keep him flat and going in the right direction to take down the big purses and keep earning points for the Gold Superfinal in the fall.
K D BELLA---has a lot of issues, among them soundness, making breaks and grit to win when she does stay at it. Currently, she cannot be played. I haven't seen her in a while, and that is a must tonight for future plays. She is likely going to KD to beat up on those for the summer. Maybe she is a chalk burner there. I will be watching.
PRICEVALLEY ESPOIR---goes first time Hughes. He is now a month out of the box, and on top of that, appears to be a no talent with the A track horses. This horse is about as far from San Pail as you can get. Other than that horse, and one other, this trainer has never done anything to suggest he is worth backing on longshots. And he is driving. Pass.
ROCKY DE VIE---is a 4yo maiden. He shipped up from Pompano and raced terrible, walking the back half. 3 weeks away and he shows back up. I don't think he is as bad as last time, and he might get it together. Can't play him tonight as there is just too much going against him here. I am watching to see if he is better than he showed last time.
WIN THE DAY---went the 3 qua. route and then was tossed into the Gold at London and drew the 6 hole. He tried the 3 wide route on the last turn, and beat one, probably a breaker. The jury is out on him still, as you can't get a read on him based on how he has prepper, been spotted and the trip he had to go last time. Tonight hopefully gives a better indicator. He could make the bottom of the tri if things go his way.
OH MY MAGIC---beat up on very cheap horses at London and Flamboro, but at this track, she seems to be more of a bit player. Because she did that, she doesn't get to race with maidens here, and that puts her above her head before she was ready to tackle even moderate nw2 types, let alone some stakes bearcats she faces here. Toss for me. Maybe a solid Grassroots filly at the B's when that starts up. Maybe.
Ariella $10 to win, place
Piscean $10 to win, place
ARIELLA is more impressive each time, which is what you like to see from a young trotter. Last time she did it with Randy....with ease. The time before, she did it the hard way, and ground down a nice young colt who jogged with authority last night. Top call based on everything she shows. She has two wins now, no reason to hold her back. She does it one more time, next stop Grand Circuit.
PISCEAN whipped a bunch of maidens last time, after going a long way on the engine the time before and being taken down by a monster trotter who just gobbles up strides when he behaves. That is 2 big efforts. If my top choice fails for any reason, she is the one.
ANYWHERE WITH YOU was very impressive in the career debut. Jody just sat on her, midpack, and picked them off under no urging as he pleased, knowing all along that she was facing a very suspect bunch. The 2nd and 3rd finishers in that race didn't go forward at all next time out, and thus, meeting a few better ones this time, she will have to work for it. Can she? Probably, but I'm not certain she is the bearcat some are making her out to be. She might be a Gold filly, but that is a few weeks away. For now, she progresses, but gets beat tonight. That is my play. I would note she didn't have to go any more in her first race than she did in the qualifier. Until she does that, and works for it, she isn't solid gold to me.
HALO EFFECT---while improving each time, she is a maiden facing some nice winners, one a two time winner who toyed with her last time. She is progressing. This is a bad spot for her to pop her cherry.
PINKY THE INTERN---has good gate speed, and is learning the game. She might be okay with Grassroots types in a start or two, and has a minor shot tonight if she is in the right spot and others fail. I will just keep watching her. She hasn't shown the finish needed yet to win against some of these.
MISCHIEF SMILE---is a 1 for 18 lifetime prospect who appears to be able to tag along and make a buck and possibly find a soft OSS spot at some point to score. Not with these though.
FANCY STEP---is learning the game, but from this post again, she appears to be better off in a straight maiden. She doesn't get that luxury. Have to pass until she graduates to the higher level this class requires.
OKS LORANN---beat but outstaggered a motley crew at Northville. 10 hole at this track with some highly rated prospects inside her. Can't see her making the ticket. Let's see if she has a future at this track. I suspect she is just a toss on the trailer with her more lively stablemate to gain some experience.
METS LIFE---tried the front last time. Same result. He can't make speed and hold it. Pass and toss.
American In Paris $10 to win
AMERICAN IN PARIS continues to finish very strong and come up just short for various different reasons. None of that matters tonight. Unless I am wrong, CC is going to place her forwardly tonight and make sure she has a legit shot at getting it done. I doubt she cuts it, but she will be sitting in the deuce somehow or moving early from the 3 hole. I doubt anybody wants to try and park her out. As long as she trips out, she is the value play tonight. Her form is super solid. She is bound to win at some point. Tonight is likely that night. I want 3-1 or higher. I think I can get that.
LADY SHADOW has missed 3 weeks now, and goes first time Adams with McNair staying on her. She is the obvious play and likely gets a ton of win money play. She is hard to go against on all those variables, but I will just avoid her entirely. I don't see any value in playing her at all. I will take my chances that others are better. Adams wins a lot of races, he still doesn't win more than 50%.
BET YA is slowly becoming a force to be reckoned with. I thought she would have a tough time keeping up to these, but she has done it. She wouldn't shock me, but I like my top choice better tonight at a price as a proven winner with these before. I think it wont be long until this one is winning here. Tonight, I will not play her.
Waasmula is one who has my number. So, booking her, I am playing against that. They all go down at some point, and she meets 5 others here who all can take her if the trip is right. That is a lot to beat. I say she is relatively short, with only Lady Shadow likely taking heavy tote money on the Adams angle. I will go with my gut here and go against her.
WILDCAT BEAUTY---steps up to the top class. She is razor sharp and the best she has ever been. However, she meets 5 others who could also say the same thing, and they have won this class or been right there trying before. She has not. This is the acid test. Lets see if she can compete. The jury is still out.
MARLEE B---finally got it done last time off the trip and drop. She now moves back up, and gets Fillion as Trevor takes the obvious bearcat. I think she is a bit player here, but she has a minor shot.
Make Way $8 to win
Blushing Promise $8 to place
MAKE WAY I will go to one last time. Bad trips have haunted her lately, and post 10 did her in last time, assuming she was live, which was debatable. She is due to trip out, and when she does, she does have ability relative to this soft and unimpressive bunch. I will play her on the improved post and price. She needs a lot to go her way to get it done.
Blushing Promise has scored 2 in a row now at Flamboro and comes here to try her luck. CC adds to the attraction of playing her. She doesn't meet a tough and sharp bunch, and maybe she is a late bloomer. I will use her and the big price. Not crazy about her breeding, which suggests she will not finish well when the speed picks up. But, she isn't meeting Cam Fella or Perfect Out here.
THRILL CHASER is the typical Rambaran. Hot and cold...trip dependent, wins her share, and then goes really cold and disappears to the B tracks to find the form again. Mario drives a lot for Etsell, but he chose against her. I think he sees her sharp form has evaporated. That is my assessment as well. As BB King would say..."The Thrill Is Gone"
TON OF LUCK went a very long way last time, parked the mile first up, locked on a line horribly. She has a history of travelling that way and it hasn't gotten better. 9 hole tonight with McClure again. No holes for him. No shot for her.
BUNDORAN---takes the class drop, and she is racing ok at the B's as she comes back here to try her luck again. She ended up first up last time she did, and folded. She has a minor shot, but I can't play her based on her history of not being good enough when she tries better. Your call. I call pass.
CHEEKIE---drew Mario and he took her. As mentioned last week, she isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer mentally, but she has speed if you can get her to the last turn and point her at the target. That worked last time. Will it again? I say no, but I wouldn't take her action either. She has speed and she might be able to boss these around for a week or two more.
IDEAL SPACE---is a typical Western Ideal, in that she is racky gaited even when racing well. On her best day, she can go with these and beat them. I wouldn't toss her in this group, and I'd use her in a minor way on the pick 4. I prefer a couple of others, but she could take them. She has to improve her last quarters if she wants to earn at this track. 30 wont cut it.
NOMATTERWHEN---has not yet proven she belongs on this circuit. She picks up Sylvain tonight. He is good with this type. He isn't the messiah of miracles. Pass.
TABOO SEELSTER---0 for 15...at the B's, and a mare with issues to begin with. Including that she is racky gaited and prone to run, and she thus can't leave and gets herself into trips that go against her limited ability to begin with. Outsider with this group.
DELIRIUM--another 10 hole for her. She isn't that brave to begin with. Have to pass and wait for a better spot to see if I like her for a price then. Not tonight.
STAR OF THUNDER is a crazy longshot stab here, and I fully admit that. Moreau gave up, or was fired, and the horse was moved to Julie Walker, who has the trotting pedigree to fix this one up, if that is possible. He has always looked suspect going around and Moreau did nothing to help that. Renaud has driven these types on this track before and bombed away. I will play that angle again. The month away doesn't concern me here. I am certain he was trained hard several times while being tinkdered with, and likely schooled a week out at race speed to see if he is sorted out. Is he? I have no clue. At 40-1 or so, I will put my money down to find out.
TYMAL SIGNATURE got a suspect drive and a terrible shuffle last time by Mario and had to weave around to get 3rd, which she did. She CAN make amends here, but holding that type of form is tough for her lot. Minor shot for her tonight at a somewhat short price. Use on the pick 4, avoid as a straight win bet. That is my call.
FREDDIEanother longshot play in here to add to the pick 4. He tried Gold colts at London last time and while he was a bit player, he was a bit better than that last year and isn't racing terrible. He will click in at some point. That point could be tonight, or not. I wouldn't want to be taken out in Leg 1 of the pick 4 by him when I could add him on for 20 cents. Take out the heavy chalk, and this is anybody's race. That is my play here.
SPIRIT TO WIN certainly is the class of this bunch at this point. She took down the Pure Ivory and was a player all year at 2. But, she was always carefully handled by CC and finally blew up in the Peaceful Way elim. Jones has a habit of sending out apparently live prospects out for a test drive and having them burn the chalk players. I am one he doesn't and wont burn. He will still beat me the odd time, but for every Spirit To Win, there is 10 Nat A Virgin's and others who blow up and hurt you. I like to be on the right side of that equation and will continue to book him short and play the odd one long if I like them enough. She is a very risky play tonight if you take her sight unseen without a real race to gauge her current leve.
MYSTERY BET---is about as wildly inconsistent and erratic as you will find. When good, he is insanely good, as he showed last time. When not, he is a T bred looking for a field to run in. I can't play him either way right now. I will watch him very closely looking for another spot like last time, which I should have had but missed. He is what he is. A bombs away prospect and a chalk burner the rest of the time. He can also win the odd one at short odds. I wont be cashing those nights if and when he does.
CANDIDA---there isn't enough space here to list all the reasons this horse is as illogical as you can find.
JUANITAS FURY---was a big time player at 2, earning 300k, mostly by picking up big chunks as a bit player at the high end and winning a Gold once or twice on my memory. She has not started out great this season, but as pointed out by Garnet, she is a Kadabra and that form can turn on a dime at a big mutuel. She has some serious breeding behind her and Bax working on any issues that might be in play. Another pick 4 player, but of my likely ones, she is lower on the totem pole.
GEE OKEEFFE---made good dough at 2 by beating them to the punch and winning before the better ones came to their speed and form. I suppose she could win this, and I might use her in the pick 4, but I don't want to go too deep here, so I likely will take my chances that she is still finding herself and is a bit player at best. She does scare me as a leave off. But, life is about choices.
HAPE---is another in a long line of talented, yet erratic ones in here. I might use her too, if the price is huge, in the 20 cent range. I think at this point, Jackie Mo is teaching her and the goal is to win as many Grassroots as he can before the summer is out. I doubt he races her with intent to win here, although she could fall into it.
WINNING WIZARD---got it done last time at London by tripping out and using his tactical speed. Post 10 is a real problem here. P Mac sticks with Bax here, as you would expect, and while Zeron is more than competent with these types, the odds are stacked against this one doing it. I will take a risk and leave him off the pick 4 as I play for the bigger price that I think is coming. He is another who could bite me here.
Machal Jordan $10 to show
ROETHBLISSBERGER bottoms out condition wise and gets the right type of post and driver to convert on that. I will go to him on the relativity of this field to him. I want price though. Nothing less than 5-2 to make him viable and even that is pushing it. If not, I pass on him. 4 for 57 the last two seasons is a concern. I wont deny that.
BRINGHOME THEBLUE avoids the bearcats here and he has been racing okay on his own. Trip will be key. A repeat of his last puts him right in the mix, and I am using my top 3 plays as pick 4 players to get me to the last leg. Any of the 3 will do. I can't say with certainty which it could be, nor would I care.
HAIL THE TAXI if he could leave a step, he would be my top play. But, he leaves too much to do every time. He couldn't take down a very soft Hope For Badlands last time, who was on his hands and knees at that point, because he started up too late and had to go around traffic. It could be more of the same her at another short price. No play either way for me. Van Meer is 0 for 46. It is hard to back anything of his unless you are getting boxcars to justify the risk that they continue his donut.
Machal Jordan my risky play in the pick 4, leaving him off so I can use more and others in other legs. He is very sharp and he drops. Lots of back class that is recent and valid. Roger knows him well, and while he doesn't leave with many, he does with this guy, and will again tonight. Roger is still a very low percentage guy, and while I will play him for 3rd, I will go against him for the win, and thus, put it on the line here for my pick 4.
OLDFRIENDSKENTUCKY--beat a very soft bunch at London last time, most of which would not even do in this class. He has shown he fades at the end on this circuit, and now he loses the Moreau pre race to boot. No thanks. Sylvain can only push the button if there is gas in the tank and the engine is performing and high end. No sir here.
WHIPPET GOOD---old timer who is grinding his way to wards a million if he can. In my view, its time to retire him and show some respect. I will leave it at that.
CIONA BROMACH---would have to do a lot more to make me take notice. He doesn't currently show he is an A track horse who can win even at this bottom level. Pass.
ARI ALLSTAR---draws another bad post, and he continues to disappoint. He was well regarded as a colt, and flopped, and he has continued that trend, for Gillis that is becoming a trend with much of his stock. J Mac ditches him here. Nuff said.
WILDSVILLE---9 hole and Mario..and oh yah...wrong track.
KINDLY POET---10 hole and he was 7th both times from that spot , one of those in this class. He is getting up in age. From the inside, and maybe when he is sharp, I'd look him over. Can't see him tonight.
KARLEE SUE is just too good right now. Tomlinson doesn't make this ship with a filly he can race in Ohio if he doesn't think she is the winner or very win worthy. She dominated Stakes fillies last time, and Ohio has a good program. She beat the step below this last time she was here, and there is no reason to think Trevor can't get her across this time as well. Top call and possibly my best bet if I don't find a betterone.
MACARENA MAMA tried some tough customers in Pennsylvania her last two and held her own. She was a solid Stakes mare at 2 and seems to have come back well and heading for peak form. With JJ at the controls, I have to use her. She is the backup play if my top choice doesn't have it tonight.
is hard to ignore off the company she has kept, the fillies she has
beat and the speed she shows. She is major lame, like many from her
sire, and she seems to go with it for now. She is the likely chalk, and I
will play against that price. I might use her in a minor way on the
pick 4. I don't want to get taken out by her.
SASSAFRAS GIRL---is your typical Badlands Hanover filly. She can be great one night..and horrid the next. I might have to use her on my pick 4 to cover that chance. She has ability. She doesn't always bring it. Tonight, she could. She could not. She is tough to gauge and I'm not sure I want to bother when I can just toss her on and be safe. If I have the capital to use her, I will.
MISSEVIL---in the winter of her 3 year old year, she appeared to be a major prospect. Something went wrong along the way and she shows back up on the comeback trail. I will pass on her tonight. She is being watched.
ONYOURMARKNATAVA---gets full marks for closing last time to just miss going into a bias and coming home very fast. The problem with her is she doesn't do that consistently. She does class drop here, but I will avoid her in that there are enough others that she would have to beat them all. That is unlikely, but not out of the question.
UNIQUE ROCK N ROLL---moved up last time off a win, and made one move from a post 10 start and then packed it in bad. Too man good ones in here this time and I'm not sure she has enough overall speed to this point to keep going as the weather warms up and the miles go faster. Might be a solid winter horse if she lasts.
MAPPOS MOENHAY---is one I have never liked,and she continues to show me she is in deep if the field has any talent to beat. 7 hole tonight, I will pass again. She doesn't worry me at all.
SHEMARS LULU---is a nice B track filly meeting much better A track stakes fillies. And post 9 . Strange entry. Why not keep stealing B track money? I don't get it.
BET ON HILL---draws bad again, but even if she didn't, she might have hit the wall in this class. Pass for now. Too many good ones in here to think she can do much against them from the back of the bus,which is her destiny this time.
MYSTIQUE BEACHBUMtakes the needed class drop here and lucks into the perfect post for her to use the one weapon she has....early speed and the smarts to sit the trip if something legit wants to cut it. She is no cinch, but she will be my top call. She avoids some serious mares she has chased lately. Fillion has been able to motivate her and he is back on board. I'd want 5-2 to play her. That might be there, it might not. Anything less, and I head to the place and show pools on her.
WINDSUN KENDA gets the better post and Trevor back and she is still at the level where she is dangerous. She is another of many in this tilt who doesn't always show up and go the distance. She needs the trip, and she might get it. One of many to think about in this one. Her breeding keeps telling me to avoid her at a short price, so I will just watch her tonight.
DIANNA SANTANNA gets Jody as Randy has had enough of her park and hang game. Maybe Jody can wake her up with some trick. These aren't any better than her, and the post brings price. I'd use her as an option and hope she wakes up.
SHADYS M THREE is logical with this bunch, but also a very low percentage winner who meets a few who wont make it easy for her. I will go against her and her likely short price tonight. My memory is that she wins mostly at long odds and that is as it should be. She is not chalk worthy in my view.
WINDSONG JACOBA---backed up badly last time. But, on a positive note, she didn't choke down. Pass for now. She is impossible to read. When she shows some signs and post parades good, if the price is right, I will take a longshot stab at her.
SHELLYSSILVERMOON---went to Flamboro last time, drew the 7 hole and did nothing. She has been way back at the wire for weeks, and is impossible to like at this point. Randy took the 5 over her. I would too.
SUCKITUPBUTTERCUP---beat cheap claimers at boxcars from the 10 hole by getting the jump on them and simply being ahead of rats who don't like to win. The 2nd and 3rd finishers in that race both also have serious lameness issues and have never won at this track in their careers. She is not a conditioned mare in my view. Her last line looks good enough, I think its a mirage with her.
ISLAND VIEW---takes the class dive, but she was 82-1 from the rail in that one. She has some upset potential here, but minimal . Even at London, she hangs when she has to work for it, which she will have to do here.
ALOT OF SENSE---is in for the tag again, but has to face conditioned mares to make the race fill. That is trouble for her. She isn't as likely to stay way back, or come up the rail, and take them like she did the ones she beat when she did that. Pass on her. I think the ship has sailed on her form.
OK HEAVENLY raced a big trip last time, only to be picked off by one who has more punch at this point.If she can do that again, these are just a shade softer and not as deep as last time. Minor top call, but no plays in this race unless a price jumps out at me at post time.
FRANNEY LOVE DAT has started to come around, after a decent win and she kept up okay when she stepped up last time to this level. She isn't a play for me tonight, but she could take it down. She has lameness issues, so watch her closely in the post parade if you want to play her.
SOUTHWIND LUNA---is one month away now of a vet scratch sick and she finished well but just followed that time. Watch this time. She has not come back good so far, as that seems to be a trend with Sportswriters, as it was with him at 3 as well. Noted.
SAM---continues to be no shot for the win in this class in my view. She does nothing to change it. Only reinforces it every time she races.
LADY SANTANA---has one maiden win at London in 21 lifetime starts. Maybe she will be good at some point. This doesn't seem like the spot she gets up and blows up the tote board. I will pass.
STONEBRIDGE QUEST---spit the bit last time when she should have gone forward. I wont book her on the possible turnaround, but I wont play her or consider it unless I see something positive. That was a terrible effort. She bombed away the Grassroots final last year, but otherwise, she has always been less than impressive.
ABBIJADE HANOVER---broke her maiden impressively and raced decent when moved up to face these. She is coming along, and has a legit shot tonight, but I will wait to see if she can duplicate.
LADY JEN---was better again last time, but draws bad again. I wouldn't put it past her to gun out and try to gain a near the front trip, but she is up against it here. Longshot chance. I will pass and watch. When they hit the B tracks, she will likely be dangerous if she is the same as she was last year....one huge brush and even the rest of the way.
LITTLE MISS SPORTY---draws bad again and can't be played until she gets towards the inside. She is marginal to start with.
Hope For Paddy $10 to win
HOPE FOR PADDYreturns from Scioto and picks up Moreau. This is just the type of mare he improves. She has the ability and will get my top call on what is also a big drop from what she tackled last time she raced here. If she is as good as then, or better, she is the best in here. Is she? I don't know. I want 8-5 or more to find out.
GREYSTONE LADYLIKE drops a shade and has solid form, although she doesn't always duplicate that from week to week. She is hard to take at short odds, and I will just leave her alone both ways. It wont be easy. These have beaten her before on the drop.
LIGHTS GO OUT has completely turned it around in May, and now moves back up to face the types she can go with if she holds that form and they go enough in front of her. She has a shot, but I think others hold more value based on their variables. I think the time to play her was the last two or three starts. I will stay away from her tonight.
EMPRESS DEO---draws better this time, but she was already stopping last time before she locked wheels with another in deep stretch. She appears to have one very big brush and not much else. That will likely get her a win on a night when they go kamikaze in front of her. Even that didn't work two starts ago when she paced right into that and still got picked up. I can't use her tonight. Too many legit ones for her to tackle.
I GOT TO BOOGIE---moves up in spite of not racing great a level lower. Hard to see her being a player tonight unless she pulls a Sybil and grows some heart.
MISS COCO LUCK---tripped out last time and made the most of it by holding 2nd, while she was no match for one she moves up with..and I have rated 3rd. Therefore, no thanks.
WILDCAT HANNA---moves up off a win and a 5 week gap. No thanks. Maybe next time. Have a nice day hunting for 5th money.
AN ANGEL SHES NOT---can leave like a bat out of hell but carrying it the distance got much tougher when she started to meet others who can carry it all the way. She wont get the top this time without a fight and she will be looped. I can't see her in this spot tonight from out there.
Shutthefrontdoor $8 to win
Icommandmyspirit $6 to win
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR stayed in last time in the first start for Moreau, and Plante drove as Fillion was away. She never got room and she gave up late. I will go right back to her. She appeared very live. I think she should be even better with another week at Chez Moreau.
ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT dives down here into a very good spot for her. If my top pick doesn't come through this time, she should be the next in line.