Tuesday, June 16, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 16, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $12 on Naturescape in the 4th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Muscle Kit in the 3rd
Best Place Bet:$10  on P L Idaho in the 4th
Best Show Bet: $10 on  Seeking Steven in the 3rd

Worst Win Bet:  $12 on Unique Baran in the 6th
Race 1  $1 pick 3, 2,4,5 with 1,8 with  4,6,10
Race 2  None
Race 3$ 10 show on Seeking Steven, $10 win on Muscle Kit
Race 4 $10 win on Naturescape, $10 place on P L Idaho
Race 5  $10 win on Thor Seelster
Race 6  $10 win on Bagel Man
Race 7  $10 win on Grantland
Race 8  None
Race 9 $10 win on Mr Carrots
 Race 10 $10 win on Mikes Powerhouse 

MS---minor shot---W-
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watchIng for a future play

Race 1

Overall synopsis: The usual comment. Green trotters finding their way, and many just trying to stay trotting. Play for price with any that look decent enough.

Probable Favorite:LUCK O THE IRISH

GRANA PADANNO left out last time and trotted an even mile, finishing okay. He is progressing and I expect a price here to take a shot with him. Mario is at Georgian tonight, so Sylvain takes over. Top call. I want at least 6-1 to play him. He is 15-1 morning line. 

LCMEGANOU stayed flat last time, which has been an issue for her before. She now needs to step up her speed to go all the way and still stay together. I'm not sure she can, but if she can, the talent is there.  

MSRAILEE PRITI blew up the tote board last fall, and trotted a solid first start last time at Georgian. It appears Bax likes to start some of them out there to begin the season, race them easy and try to finish well, then come here. I would play her, and I don't discount her, but I think the price will be too short. I add her to my pick 3 if I play it, but I like one of my top 2 to get it done for the win, and that is how I proceed. Byron is a good driver for her...patient but knows how to get them to finish if they have it in them.   

 Play Against:

MSLUCK O THE IRISH  was solid last year and made a good buck. He looked like the winner last time, but got very leg weary coming to the wire..which seems to be a pattern with the ones Durand drives himself. He isn't a pro driver, and yet he still gets bet like he is. I will book this ones action and take my chances he doesn't get it done again. He doesn't tower over these as it is.

MSMADMAN HALL  ran at the start last time, and he comes right back here on 7 days. He has a shot if he behaves, which is a big if, but he likely still gets bet like he is solid, which I think he is not. Risk/reward here. 

The rest:

NSHEY HIPPIE GIRL---until she trots a clean mile in a race and goes race speed, she is not even close to something I bother with. 

NSCOLORATURA---doesn't look like she can go with these , even with the driver change to Zeron. 

WATCH BO I SEE TIME--- ships in from Balmoral, by way of Northville. No way I can rate this one, other than to say I will watch and see what he is like. Pass and watch only here for him and the other one this trainer brings. Don't know him at all. 

NSDELCREST MASSY---miles over his head here. Can't see him making the ticket and would be much better off at Grand River or Clinton.   

WATCHITS HUW YOU KNOW --- Keith Jones drives tonight, and of course he isn't the best driver but he has some skill. This horse needs a lot of babying, and while that likely means he wont win here, it will be interesting to see if he can trot the entire mile and still finish big like he has been. Future score I think at some point. I am watching for that.  

Race 2

Overall synopsis: This isn't the type of race where you can toss many. As bad as some of these look, its all relative to how bad many can become and then look as bad next week. That is how I approach most of these types of races and certainly this lot is the poster child for that theory.

Probable Favorite: THE TRAVELER

MAJOR HERBIE picks up Trevor on the driver change from Nick Stew. That can't hurt. He has won here before, in this type of class, and with these types of non performers. I call him on top, a lukewarm call, and he is one of at least 2 I will use in the pick 3.  

MSRAMAS LAST SON gets a shoeing change, and that might help. He has nights where he is very live, and you usually don't see it coming. I will use him on the chance tonight is one of those nights, in a race where I don't care for the likely two faves at all.  

MSFLEXIBLE WOMAN  raced huge last time and only hurt herself and her chances by making a mistake. She is as erratic as she is talented, and has been that way since she surfaced last year. I only play her for a price because of that, and I don't think that comes tonight. So, I watch her and I wont use her on the pick 3. Her slow starts to keep her flat are also not a plus. She has gate speed, but she overtrots herself and runs. I need price. No price tonight.

 Play Against:

MS THE TRAVELER  ran last time, stopped the time before and tagged along for 2nd the time before that in a very bad field. As a likely fave, I will take his action. He is hard to like at short odds.  

MS PAPER BACKED LINDY ran in the pocket last time, as he runs down bad and likely stung himself. He has never trotted smooth since Montini bought him and changed he shoeing right off the bat. This is the one horse I might begin playing if Per takes him back. Montini seems lost and helpless to do much with this one.  

The rest:

MSSEVERUS HANOVER---drops in class, but he stops so bad and runs quite a bit also. I can't touch him.  

MSWATCHJUSTCALLMERONALD---goes first time Carmen, but I am not sold he helps this one. I will watch. 

NSWATCHOUR MOJO---drops a bit, but he also draws bad and has been finishing very bad. Not tonight for me. Maybe soon though if I see a sign of a turnaround. 

MSKINETIC KING---the wildcard in here. Probably the most talented, but you can never be sure he will even stay flat. I have to avoid him. 

Race 3

Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite:SEEKING STEVEN

MUSCLE KIT  has been trotting some good miles in the States, and Miller is a very good trainer. Add Randy to the mix, and a decent price. I don't like the likely faves, so I go to her.   

LCGO GET BRUCE  is finding it tough in nw2 and against winners. He can step up though, so I include him in my pick 3.  

LCTYRONE ZOEY terrible post, but she has talent and seems to hang around. If the pace collapses, she can pounce. A lot would have to go right for that to happen.
 It can.  

 Play Against:

WATCHSEEKING STEVEN  raced solid last time, weaving through traffic and looking like a winner but out trotted when it counted. He will be a short price again, and I like him to be on the ticket, but not as the winner. I play him to show, and take his action for the win. He might need one more, if he is legit to begin with. We shall see.  

The rest:

WATCHNORDIC HOLIDAY---comes in after almost a month off. I can't see her tonight and I pass. She would have to show me something to get me to take notice for next time. 

LCPARKHILL LANCELOT---ran last time when under pressure to make speed and contend on the turn. He has to show he can hack that type of effort. I am not sold he can. B track horse until he shows me he is more than that.  

LCNAMESMUSCLE---made a break late last time, but has faced and beaten better than most of these. Your call. I go elsewhere. 

 WATCHNUMBERS GAME---hopples back on, we shall see if he can go forward now that he appears steady again. Ben B took them off for a reason, but the horse needs them. Watching. 

LCIRISH SCOTCH---has come back at 3 in very poor form. He did come a decent back half last time, but until he races the entire mile and finishes like that, he wont get me on board.  

WATCHMUSCLES ALL OVER---maybe Potvin isnt that bad. Okay, he is that bad. But on this horse, it wasnt him. He is a runner until he shows me he isn't.  

Race 4

Probable Favorite: P L IDAHO

NATURESCAPE  had a chance last time but was outpaced at short odds when it counted. He still went a big mile and I go to him on top because of the suspect nature of my 2nd choice. If he were to behave and get around, he would crush this guy. As most of us know, he doesn't always behave. 

P L IDAHO  Sylvain took him over his fathers horse after he raced great last week. That is a big thing to me. You never know what you will get with this one, but likely short odds is something you do know. I will play him to place and my winner to win, as opposed to going an exactor. One of the two probably flops on me. 

MSSHIPPEN OUT  generally races for the small share, and might be better in the winter. For now I stick with my assessment that he can't pass really nice horses. 

 Play Against:

MSWESTERN BAYAMApaced huge to nab 2nd last time but these are even tougher. I think he is not quite ready for them, and neither does Sylvain as he picks against his fathers horse.

MSARTFUL WAY has two in a row, and looks for 3. He could, but these types rarely do.  

The rest:

NSYORK SEELSTER---got 2nd last time if a very soft split of the Grassroots, but didn't look good doing it. Until I see him look a lot sounder than he has, he wont see my action.  

NSHP BUSHIDO DRAGJET ---total rat with a bad post.  

LCPIER HO TEMPTATION--- seems pretty live, and has an outside shot, but post hurts him. When he draws back inside, I will likely come back to him if he maintains form.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: I'm playing for a longshot here.

Probable Favorite: CAN I SAY

THOR SEELSTER picks up Trevor and has pretty good B track form, has been good enough at this track before when he shows up. Top call at a price.  

MSCAN I SAY  I was not impressed with how he bore out really bad last time. Possible, but that mile was troubling. Beware. 

MSEXTRACURRICULAR on his best day, he has a shot with these. Not exactly facing Mack Lobell here.  

 Play Against:

WATCH CANTABS FORTUNE  off 5 weeks sick. Hard to like one like that at shorter odds.

The rest:

WATCHQUIT SMOKING NOW---I am not impressed with his current form and the post position doesn't make me think he will be live. 

WATCHEASTER TEKA---new horse I don't know. Must be seen. 

NSSANTO DOMINGO---hate this rat. Pass. Forever. 

NSHOUSE OF CASH---back to his lame and running behavior. 

MSJ CS JAKE---Almost took this one, but I liked others better. He has a shot to blow up the tote board.  

Race 6

Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite:UNIQUE BARAN

LCBAGEL MAN  I am playing this guy for the bombs away price and hope he comes back to his last win here, and gets the same type of trip.  

MSCROWN ISLE Terrible form, but I see this as a race to play a longshot, and you have to accept the baggage that comes with that.  

MSROYAL CANVAS  Same as the above ones, but I think he is going to pop soon. Maybe not tonight. He could though. You just never know with these types.   

 Play Against:

MSUNIQUE BARAN  sharp as a tack. As we saw last night with Intended Style, that doesn't last with these forever. Post 10 will cost him at some point. Trainer changes also aren't helping him as he goes along. Time to jump off his bandwagon in my view.  

LOVES A CHALLENGE  comes back to this track sharp, but he will be heavily bet and I don't think he justifies that. 

The rest:

NS SHIPPS XPECTANCY---hard to like anything he has done for months. Pass. 

MSSEA DONKEY---terrible gaited horse who can get it done if he can stay flat and be driven. I'm not sold he will.

LCPROCEED TO PARTY--- first time lasix. beware. Otherwise, he is a hog to this point 

NSTWIN B BRAT---big outsider who has to prove he belongs.  

NSMAJOR NAJOR ---hard to like based on what I've seen of him before. As this class goes, its a bit deeper than usual. That works against him.   

Race 7

Overall synopsis: I am not sold on the chalk and took viable, yet risky options to beat him. There are others too. Tough race to play.

Probable Favorite:DEES ROCKETMAN

GRANTLAND has been bravened up at the B's, and now comes back with CC attached and you get a price with Dees Rocketman likely to take heavy money. Good enough for me. Top call. I'd want 9-2 or more.  

LCSPORTS COLOGNE  if my top choice doesn't come through, he is another viable, yet suspect longshot to beat down the chalk, who I view as sucker money. Could get it done. Could be a rat. Could be a rat AND get it done.  

Play Against:

DEES ROCKETMAN has not shown me he will win when in striking position. If you want his short price tonight, I will take that action. These types lose all the time.  

The rest:

NSJET BLACK CADILLAC--- 0 for 22 and counting. Good post, soft trip, likely gets a cheque, might even make the ticket.  

LC NEW MIRACLE---improving and has a minor shot if everything goes his way. I went to others to take down the likely heavy chalk.  

MSFLAHERTY---asking a lot of this one to step up and face older ones. Watching. 

MSFULL TIME GIG---has issues and I think he is tough to play unless he heads back to the B tracks. Pass for me. He needs to be driven full out, and that isn't a good idea currently. 

LCMYSTIC ICE---first time starter with an impressive qualifier and a trainer known to get performance. 9 hole though. I will just watch tonight. He wouldn't shock me though. 

NS DEETZY--- 12 time maiden from the 10 hole. No thanks. And..btw..he's a Jereme's Jet. Nuff said. 

Race 8

Overall synopsis: I don't really like anything here. Passing the race completely. Good luck if you do. If I played a pick 4, I'd probably take them all. If Girl Drama is the favorite, you know its a tough go.

Probable Favorite:GIRL DRAMA

Race 9

Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite:MR CARROTTS

MR CARROTTS  if he races like he can, he shouldn't have any trouble with these. He has a clear speed edge. He doesn't always perform. The only question is....will he? 

 Play Against:

DESERONTO  tripped out on a horrid bunch and to his credit, he got it done. He is swimming with a boulder tied to his leg in this one. He jumps about 4 classes up. I don't get that.

The rest:

MS TWIN B SCANDAL---raced pretty good last time to finish 2nd to a tons the best winner. He is coming along. He could upset here if my top choice bombs. Beware.   

MSWATCHSUGARSAM--- is very hard to read off the lines on the page. He will have to be seen. He has talent. I don't think he has as much as others in here. Watching him for a future score when better spotted. 

NSWATCHMOONWARDS HANOVER---backed up big time last time, and Jack Darling, who is usually solid gold is having a terrible season with very poor stock. I will wait. This horse will find a level and Jack will get it going again. Not tonight with this one.   

NSHIS BOY ELROY---low percentage winner off a vet scratch. not tonight. 

NSMIDNIGHT PLAY---very inconsistent, hard to read and play type. He is the type to blow up the tote board at some point, likely in the fall when they slow down just a bit. Pass and watch for now. 

MSWATCHMAC RAIDER---good comeback effort last time. Post hurts him here and I will just watch to keep tabs on him. He is finding his way.  

Race 10

Overall synopsis: If class holds, the 10 horse jogs.


 MIKES POWERHOUSE I dont play many 10 posts on top, but this guy takes a monumental drop in class. He was 2nd best to Split The House, or he doesn't even fit this class anymore. It would take a lot to get this one beat.  

MSWATCHKONA KID has a bit of talent, but has not come back this year good. They are searching for answers. Removing Lasix is not something you see often, and in this case, I give him a nod for 2nd on that angle and what it might do. Its a flyer they are taking. Sometimes it works. 

MSWATCHFASHION MAVEN was extremely hot and rank leaving last time, and Drury tried to time the gate, which he did, but he was spent by the turn. Maybe they have corrected that. I give him a pass for all that, but he meets a few tougher ones this time. Interested to see how he performs and stacks up.  

 Play Against:

MSABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL  was very impressive last time, and is possible, but I think he is getting a bit ahead of himself against some of these. A month from now he has probably won this class and moved on. Tonight, he is going to have to find more to go with some of these. 

The rest:

NSRATHER SWELL---is basically a maiden racing nw2 types and it shows every time he meets a winner he can't or wont fend off. Time for a claimer if you asked me.   

NSthe rest---seem  way over their heads and are fighting for 4th and 5th if they can get it.  

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