Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 30, 2020

 Race 1 MDN CLM 25k 1m

Summary Very mixed bag, with a fts who is the likely favorite, a bunch of others with reason to suggest they could step up and beat that one, and a few with suspect races who might have been aiming for a race like this for a big score at the windows. This will be very much a jockeys race, and a jockey known to pop with bigger longshots might be the one to do that here.

1 Chipshape  by Backtalk, who is by Smarty Jones and out of an Affirmed dam has started 5 times with one 2nd place finish in his 2nd last start at Maiden claiming, and was raised up to MSW last time and finished 10th. He also tried the turf for the first time last time and shortened up. This time, he will stay on the turf, go back to the mile distance and claiming class where he managed second. He is an interesting longshot prospect. Perhaps turf is the right surface for him and he just needs to be on it at the right class level.

2 Lord Flintshire by Flintshire, who had the classic turf distance pedigree and delivered on that genetic code at the highest level, this one makes his 3rd life start. He has had trouble getting in races that stay on the turf, due to the unusual amounts of rain in the late summer and fall. Now, he gets to come right back in 3 weeks at the same distance, class level and surface and draws a much better starting post. His speed figure progressed from start 1 to 2. If he can go forward off the tighter return and improving speed, he is very viable as a longer shot. He does have a Rahy dam, and that means both that he is even more likely to excel on the turf, but also might be a hanger when they get near the line. Not all of them are, but many. He kept closing late last time but his bad post and slow start then meant he couldnt get up in time.

3 Military Commander by War Dancer, who is by War Front, he also makes his 3rd life start. War Dancer was a Grade 2 winner, broke his maiden early at Gulfstream, raced all over the map and was fairly consistent and durable, making 30 life starts and a million bucks over 4 years. This one started his career at GPW, but then shifted to Tampa last time and improved his speed rating a bit, now comes back to Gulfstream to resume his chase of better horses, So far he has been 9th and 10th, and while he takes a slight class drop here on his return, he will have to do much more as a 30-1 longshot to get my attention. He bears watching, but I cant use him in this spot. Blinkers are off today. Lets see if that helps.

4 My Maxamillion is by Bullet Train, who is by Sadlers Wells, and was a minor stakes winner and chased Grade 1 types many times over with at best only on the fringes type finishes. This one has raced much like his sire, with a 3rd, 4th and 5th in 3 tries so far. He will go longer here and try the turf, and thus, has some room for improvement in a race with mediocre types like this. He is possible if he can move forward a bit. Blewitt takes him on top and Nic takes him 2nd. I will listen to what they have to say as to their reasons. 

5 Quinto Sol by Social Inclusion, who for a month or two was thought to be the next super horse, then leveled off chasing the best of his year, and has sired some okay runners and winners with his first crop to race this year. This guy has a trainer who makes strange change moves, like running a horse in a maiden claimer, to a horrid speed figure, dead last, then moving him up to MSW, running better, at least he beat a few, then putting him back in a maiden claimer. He does bring in some big longshots, so obviously, his moves are shifty and have to be watched with suspicion. Like he is setting up a score. He started out at 50k going 6f on dirt, last time MSW at 7.5 on the turf, now goes even longer, drops back into a 25k claimer and stays on turf. Dangerous type if he is just playing around with him to get him in the right zone. He takes the blinkers off today and maybe that might help also.

6 Westerly Wind by Cajun Breeze, who is by Congrats, and sires a lot of 2yo winners early, this one makes his 4th life start, and started out with a similar profile to many of the runners of his sire. He was 2nd in his lifetime debut, but has since finished 7th and 6th. His speed figures for all 3 are virtually the same. He had his chance to crack first out, but didnt get the victory. He runs exactly under the same conditions as last time, except he gets a much better starting post this time. That might be enough to enhance his win chances. His trainer is sharp and makes no other changes. He did have some road trouble last time in a race where there was a lot of bumper cars going on and he had to wait until late to try and go forward, which he was doing at that point. 

7 Golden Fiddle a fts by Tonalist. He was an 82k yearling but debuts for 25k. He worked about 12 times in New York, but never raced as he was unimpressive overall doing that. He has shipped down here and worked 3 times, but still doesnt show much. Unless he takes unusual money, he is a watch only type. 

8 I Am the Grey by Mizzen Mast, a sts making no changes of note and running back on 27 days, was up near the pace in that debut, and while 7th, was in a pack of many near the winner. I suppose he has a fighting chance here, but is a bad value low fave if he turns out to be that. I wouldnt take 3-1 on him. Acacia and Ron take him on top and the others have him rated top 3, so while he is 6-1 ML, you arent likely to get anything near that. He had every chance last time but couldnt last when the better ones ran late. He looks like a fader.

9 Marlon B a fts by Hard Spun goes out for top trainer Gargan and is the 3-1 ML choice. He shows steady improving works and on paper, looks tough. He is fts though, so he will have to be seen. He is a homebred, so Im sure they have high hopes for him.

10 Parmenides a sts by Munnings who only sold for 2500 as a yearling. So obviously he has some sort of confirmation issue. Nevertheless, he had made the races, sticks to the turf, goes longer and drops in class for start 2. Sano trains, and you have to be afraid of anything he sends out at long odds making changes. So, there is that.

11 He Ain't No Saint by Shanghai Bobby, who is by Harlans Holiday, is a homebred making his 5th life start. The first 3 starts were mediocre at best, but the last was better as he finished 3rd, vastly improving his speed rating while going longer and trying the turf for the first time. He was hard to handle at times last time and still finished with good punch when he had a chance.  He comes right back with no changes from last time but draws a bad post this time, which is a factor in a race like this.

12 Weight of Glory by Gemologist out of a Distorted Humor mare, makes his 3rd start and showed a lot of improvement in start 2, dropping out of MSW, into a claimer and nabbing 3rd with a much better speed figure. He shortened up that day, but will go back to the mile distance and this time try turf for the first time, but, he gets the far outside post in a race where many are likely to blast out and take their shot. One of many who could pop on these, but he is up against it because of the ground he will have to give early or get caught wide.

Race 3 MDN CLM  12.5 5 1/2F

Summary Two likely short priced favorites who figure but have issues, and a bunch of others who are hard to like but not impossible to make a case for. Tough call, but Id be inclined to say the favorites go down here. 

1 Con Permiso by Algorithms out a First Samarai mare, has made 9 starts already as a 2yo and hasnt gotten it done. He was a cheap yearling, has shown mediocre speed and finishes on the edges a lot without winning. He comes right back to the same class and distance, this time though he wont be 12-1 after finishing 3rd last time. He finished 2nd for 32k on Sept 11th as the fave, then missed the ticket his next start at a similar class at 1-2. If he were to take heavy tote action, which is likely, he is very bad value. I wouldnt take less than 3-1 on him. Id probably take 12-1 on him again if he doesnt click here and runs back a couple of weeks later. He is that type of horse for that type of barn.

2 Artista by Distorted Humor, has made 4 starts, first 2 in MSW, next two in maiden claiming, has yet to hit the ticket and shows little speed at all, even relative to this suspect bunch. His owner trainer may have a plan for him, but I cant see what that would be. He will cut his tag in half here, which he needed to do anyway, go back to dirt, which he has already tried and didnt do any better, and go a shade longer, which he has already done. I cant use him off any of that until he starts to compete. 

3 Aces Up a fts by Union Rags out of an Unbridled Songs dam, he is likely to be a big boy. He didnt sell well as a yearling, was attempted to be flipped as a 2yo, but returned unsold at 9k. Those arent good signs. He is 5-1 ML, but his works are mediocre and I am likely to pass on him and watch once. Unless he wows me in the post parade.

4 Master of Disaster  by Khozan is a 5 time starter to this point with one 2nd place finish. He got that 2nd place finish in start 3 when he dropped out of the MSW chase. But since, 2 more starts in maiden claiming and he has missed the ticket. Thus, he will take another slight drop, 16k to 12.5k, and shorten up a shade. He is viable, but as the likely chalk, he can be had. Going shorter will help him as he looked spent mid stretch, but he does run in and that can get him beat in any case by anything that runs.

5 Florida Endeavour a fts by Central Banker, who is by Speightstown, and thus we might expect this one to be the type to blast right out of the gate. He showed reasonably fast works in November, but has since regressed. If he does blast, I wont expect him to last with these seasoned if not vulnerable types. He could take a few with him and set it up for a closer.

6 Without Passport fts by Tapizar, who sold for 12k, then 9k as a yearling then dumped off for 3k as a 2yo to his current connections and he debuts near the bottom claimer. He will pick up the apprentice jockey, so he gets a break on weight, but his works suggest he isnt anywhere near competitive at this point. Pass. 

7 You're All Right by Gone Astray, is 3 starts into his career with no finishes on the ticket to this point. He is a homebred who started out in MSW, aborted that after the debut, and last time sliced his tag in half, shortened up a 1/16th and took significant tote money off the ML, and was able to get 4th. He comes right back under the same variables. He fits at this level, but will have to do a lot better to beat a few of these. They are ripe to be taken, so that isnt impossible. 

8 Valeroso by Uncaptured, 6 starts in, has not made the ticket in any of those and his terrible speed ratings dont get any better as he races. I cant see him at any point with these. He would be a massive bomb if he comes in. He will drop in class, go longer and switch surfaces, all things that have been tried with him with the same result. 

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight 6 1/2F

Summary A lot of big ticket fillies, and a few who would have been if they had not been homebreds that have been retained, and many making their first lifetime start. Post parade will be key, and nobody in here should be a short price, less than 2-1. If they are, others are value. If anything takes unusual money, that one is to be looked at closer.

1       Touring Egypt fts by Cairo Prince, She was a 160k yearling, then RNA twice as a 2yo, obviously trained down fast and they didnt get what they were looking for. Here we are almost 2 years later and she makes her debut. Something obviously happened from the time she went into the 2yo sale and when she was attempted to be trained to race. She will have to be seen, but Im inclined to pass on her first out and see what she has, or has left.

2 Aqaareb sts by Bernardini out of an Unbridleds Song dam, a homebred for Shadwell. didnt perform at all first out. Pletcher makes changes here,  going shorter and switching to the turf. As she is almost 4 and breeding season is coming up shortly, I suppose the goal is to see if they can get her a win before she is to be bred in the spring. 

3 Whispering Pines Uncle Mo filly, out of a 300k winning dam who won 5 of 7 lifetime, this one raced solid last time at Churchill, finishing 3rd with a big speed figure, but she gave it up a bit in the deep stretch, and will cut back here, likely a wise move. She seems to be heading towards winning form and the cutback seems like the winning move

4 My Ashleigh a homebred by Field Commission has started 3 times with two 2nds so far. She will stick to the dirt here but go a bit longer. She has a longshot chance if the faves dont show up, but her speed figures are just a shade short of the better ones. However, she can improve and they can bomb out, as often happens with maidens, especially the blueblood types who havent made the races until late in their 3yo season.

5 Emma Rose a homebred by Bernardini out of an Empire Maker dam, she has made 4 starts so far with 2 fairly good, including the last one where she got 3rd and earned a high speed figure, and two not good, including the 2nd last where she had a gate incident and was trapped in the gate as the others raced away. She seemed none the worse for wear though last time. She has sneaky good form and might be the price play here. This will be her 3rd start off the shelf, and the 2nd if you discount the gate incident race. She will go shorter and come off the turf...exactly what she did for her first lifetime start here last winter. 

6 Into Candy a fts 3yo by Into Mischief out of a Candy Ride dam, they paid 210k for her as a yearling. Another probably they are looking to get a win out of before the breeding season comes up and will test her here to see if she is worth carrying on with as a racehorse first. Her works are uninspiring to say the least, but yet 3 of the track handicappers have her on top. I will listen to what they have to say, but Im inclined to play against her based on several variables, breeding, form, and price.

Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 20, 2020

 Race 1 MDN CLM 25k 5F 

Summary The ML choices are pretty suspect as win candidates, although they are likely to be in the mix of the race and effect who can win this. Very good race to find a price who takes advantage of their flaws. Three fts in this group, who need to be watched closely as a fresh face likely plays in this pretty soft bunch.

1 Pugin by Palace Malice, makes his 8th life start. He has been 2nd in his last two and the last start was at this meet. He seems to run alternating higher and then lower speed figures, which, if holds, means he will run poorer overall this time than last time. He tries sprining here, and he started his career out with three sprint tries, all on the dirt, at a higher level than this with also ran results. He is possible, but I would probably go to others before him. I suppose they are trying him sprinting on turf as he has not done that exact thing before, to see if they can get him over the hump or not. Early scratch. 

2 Twirling Fire by Twirling Candy, a horse who ran very high speed figures from his first life start right until he retired. His dam made one life start, a win, ran a huge speed figure, and then never ran again. This guy, 6 starts in, has run slower, consistent, mediocre speed figures and races, but he meets mostly similar today. He resembles the 1 horse in many respects but he will sprint again on the turf at the same price as last time when he was 3rd. He is 4-1 ML. I would use him if I could get 8-1, but otherwise use his spot on the ticket for something with better value.

3 Todaystheday by Verrazano, he is the ML choice after making 3 life starts to this point. He gets that race office respect because he goes out for the current flavor of the month hot young trainer, and finishing 2nd in this class while doing exactly what he did last time after coming off the dirt and shortening up. However, he didnt win that start so while he will be a short price today, he isnt a lock. He will have to be seen. Some of the Verrazanos run, others develop a sour attitude and begin to regress as they go along from my experience. Attitude will be important for this one if you are going to accept the short price. His speed figures dont tower over the two inside him.

4 Nitro Time by Munnings out of a Big Brown mare, he is a homebred making all the variable changes in his 3rd try at racing. Shipping, dropping, going shorter and getting on the turf. He needs a change as he ran a horrid speed figure last time that probably wouldnt win a 4 claimer at Mahoning or Fort Erie. He drops out of two MSW efforts, but its debatable if that is a drop as he wasnt even competitive last time. I guess you could argue that since he went to the lead and then caved in to finish 12th with that horrid speed figure that sprinting is a better option and dropping means he doesnt have to fend off better horses when he starts to tire. That is still in question. Being that he has a Big Brown dam, I will go on the theory he is a stopper and non trier when asked to fight for it, and pass on him. 

5 Mindship Q by Midshipman, who is by Unbridleds Song, he was an 8k yearling, has run 6 times, with 3 3rds and generally finishes on the edges. He is just the type of rat that steps up and wins races like this, without taking any special tote money. Watch him closely in the post parade to see if he looks live. If he is, he could surprise this bunch.

6 Valeroso by Uncaptured, he has yet to make the ticket in 5 starts and his speed figures are consistently a cut lower than the contenders in here. He is hard to make on paper and would need something like unusual money to entice me to use him unless I see something else that I like.

7 Forty Flash by Forty Grams, who is by Distorted Humor, has shown little to date but might slight improvement each start. He has room to improve in start 4. I will look him over to see if he looks good in the flesh. On paper he is still a ways away from winning form in this type of class. 

8 V. I. P. Who a fts by Gone Astray, he is a homebred who shows only mediocre works, all on dirt, yet he debuts on turf. These types scare me as its possible they are hiding his ability to cash a big ticket. I will have to see him to make a proper call on him. On the fence as to whether to use him, as this race screams fts winner. 

9 Old Man Mac a fts by Exaggerator, out of a Heatseeker mare, Heatseeker by Giants Causeway, so he has a turf pedigree on the bottom side. He has not shown much speed to date in his 3 works and Id say he is likely out for experience and a test ride to see what they need to do with him going forward. Unless he takes unusual money, he is a pass for me, but watch for future plays. 

10 Blame Charlie by Adios Charlie, makes his 3rd life start, goes shorter and goes to the turf first time. He has room for improvement and a sharp veteran trainer in his corner. He has a longshot chance if he can improve a bit more and the changes help him. He could be the one in this group. The trainer is also the owner and the breeder of this one, so he has had him since day one. He also trained the dam, who made 10 starts with 2 2nds but never won a race.

11 Rub My Belly a fts by Point of Entry, he shows decent enough 4f works to suggest he can contend for the lead early. However, he has an outside post and thus, he is in for a long trip. One to watch but hard to like today based on his draw and that he has never raced before. He easily could be stacked up 8 high before they get to the turn and never see the fence.

12 Deputy Indy by Prospective, who is by Malibu Moon, thus he is more likely to want to go long, he is a homebred making his 4th life start. Post 12 in a sprint will not help his chances, which were slim to begin with. He is not impossible off his last speed figure, if, he sits out of it, they battle hard and he swings around them all. That is a lot ot ask of a cheap maiden who has yet to finish in the top 3 from post 12, so I am inclined to not use him. 

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight 5F 

Summary Five fts and one sts. As usual, it makes for tough handicapping. Have to see them to see who is mature and who is acting like a green colt. Some very fast types who are likely to send and battle. 

1 Chieficia fts by Into Mischief, was bought back by his owners as a yearling for 145k, then sold off for 40k as a 2yo in training. That is not a good sign. His dam was not much of a racehorse, His works to date do not insprire confidence that he can match up with this type of company. He will have to be seen. 

2 Mutaraafeq fts by Frosted, who has sired some ready to go runners around Gulfstream this year. This one has a Rahy dam, so bred for the turf. He is a homebred for Shadwell and Pletcher, so he is likely to take heavy money on debut. He hasnt wowed in workouts, but Pletcher generally doesnt start them until they are ready, so that is something to consider. The dam made 9 life starts and never won a race.

3 Rockstar Ro by Gemologist, a 4 time starter already ships in from Kentucky with good speed figures and decent results, but meets possibly a very tough and well meant crew here. Not impossible, but he will have to bring his A game and a bit more to get over the hump with these. HIs dam won 2 races and 200k while chasing some stakes level company, but like her son, finished 2nd and 3rd a lot more than won. That has to be considered. I am sure he will break his maiden, just not sure it is in this tough spot. He will go back to the turf and shorten back to 5f, which is how he started at Indiana when he was 3rd then, against likely a much easier group than these though.

4 Lucky Law an Irish bred by No Nay Never who goes out fts for Biancone, he showed impressive works when he was sold as a 2yo in training in Europe and shipped here to race. He shows 2 bullet works preparing for the debut. He will have to be seen, but he is race ready on the speed angle where some of these might be a few away. He is probably the post time favorite, in say 9-5 range. 

5 Shaftesbury a fts by Uncle Mo who is another for Pletcher in this race. His dam was a 4 time winner by Lemon Drop Kid. Repole paid 675k for him as a big ticket yearling, but to a guy like that, he doesnt even blink when he signs those tickets. Generally, his works have been slow relative to the type he has to run against here, but being that he has a Lemon Drop Kid dam, he is probably being pointed for longer races next year, and this is just the start for him. I dont prefer him today in a sprint where he simply might be fast enough or close enough to win the race.

6 No Que No sts by More Than Ready, out of a Broken Vow dam, a homebred who ran okay on debut, getting 3rd, and switches to turf for his 2nd start and cuts back a shade. While he isnt technically dropping in class, he meets very legit high end types here and that wouldnt be said about the first group he met, which was also a short field. I think he is overmatched on the win front, just unlucky he caught such a tough field this time. He does show very fast 3f works, so likely to seek the lead and effect the outcome. If many of the young prospects bomb out, he isnt impossible to be there if he gets ahead early. 

7 Midnight Tequila a 4 time starter already by Justin Phillip, he moves up from maiden claimers to meet this tough legit MSW group. He is hard to like based on that and his trainer runs a lot of impossible longshots as a rule. Pass and watch for his likely return to claimers.

8 Sanctified fts by Point of Entry is a homebred out of a Broken Vow dam. He shows blistering works at 3f and generally has trained well. He is likely to try and wire this bunch. Can he hold his speed at 5f, that is the question. 

Race 4 MDN CLM 20k 6F

Summary Two clear favorites who look good on paper with the variables of change considered, but are beatable enough by a few in here who look like they have a legit chance to step up. 

1 Water Wizard by Flashstorm, who is by Storm Cat, has started 13 times with 2 2nd place finishes to show for her owner, trainer and breeder. He certainly is patient, I will give him that. She will go longer here and try the dirt again. Hard to like on paper and her winless record, but I suppose these types win races like this every now and then if you want to take a flyer on a bomb like her.

2 Gilded Lady by Tapiture, goes for Cibelli, shipping in with the rest of her barn from Monmouth and not racing since late August. She will go longer for her 4th life start. She dropped from MSW to claiming last time, vastly improved her speed rating and nabbed 2nd. Obviously, she is a big contender here. Tapiture get can be difficult sometimes, so that is something to watch for. Otherwise, she is a player with this crew. Cibelli has them ready when they race, layoff or not. She tried MSW here last winter, but is more reasonably spotted this time. Cibelli races to win, and that is where this one fits.

3 Miss Uncaptured by Uncaptured, a 6 time starter, raced twice at GPW in 2018, then went to Laurel for 3 starts and was no good, then off more than a year when she resurfaced at GPW last time in October, and didnt run hardly at all, 7th now in her last 3 starts. She has worked 3 times since but nothing spectacular. I cant make her at all and will have to see some progress for future plays. They have kept her around all this time. They must see something the rest of us dont. I guess her 2nd place finish at MSW two years ago gives them hope she can return to that eventually. 

4 Theycallmeprincess by Currency Swap who is by High Cotton, is a 4yo 2nd time starter who has been off more than a year. She debuted 3rd in a MSW about 18 months ago. High Cotton throws a lot of lame ones. So, she might fit that mold. She will have to be seen. Her 4 works prepping for the return are too slow to think she does much today. Lets see her and make a call for later races if she makes it to another start this meet. 

5 Uptown Queen by Big Drama, a homebred sts for Fawkes, who trains a lot of Big Drama foals, and i think trained him during his racing career. She was 2nd on debut and goes longer here. She looks like a major player. As a sts who is almost 4, I want to see her parade to see how she handled the wear and tear of an actual race the first time. If she passes that test, she is one to overweight on the tickets. 

6 Good Shabbos by Munnings, an 8 time starter who goes out for Breen, she has been 2nd or 3rd 7 out of 8 starts, but 3rd and 4th in her last two, all MSW races, and so, wanting to get her over the hump, they dive into a claimer here. Will that do the trick. I dont know. Breen is sharp, so I am not likely to go against his opinion as to where she fits to win the race. She was a 190k yearling and in for 20k today, so clearly she has not panned out and they are about to cut bait with her today, as she is a likely claim. Knowing that, I suspect they think they have picked the right level to win with her on the way out the barn door for good. 

7 Chattin With Jenny by Car Talk, an Irish bred son of Bernardini out of a Deputy Minister dam, she is a Washington bred who goes for a trainer who has a lot of horses that dont win, and she fits that bill at 0 for 17 and a week short of her 6th birthday. They write a 12.5 claimer and at best, she should at least try that bunch. Toss. 

8 You're the Best by Malibu Moon, a 6 time starter who is the 2nd ML choice, goes for Barboza, will drop in class and go shorter. In her last 2 she has dropped out of MSW into claimers, gotten 2nd and 3rd and goes lower today. That all makes sense. Her speed figures are slightly higher than the rest of the field as a whole, and she is fairly consistent about it. Likely the one to beat. 

9 Comp'd a fts, a homebred by Competitive Edge he shows ok enough works to compete with this bunch, and thus, I would use her as a protection add. Post 9 for a fts is an issue though if others with more experience want the lead more than she does. 

10 Addi a 130k yearling by Wicked Strong with 4 starts under her belt, she will ship in, drop in class and change surface here after showing so so speed and overall finishes. Another who is possible off all the changes in a race where something is going to respond to that and many will just run the same. She has been off since April and makes her first start at Gulfstream. 

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight 7F

Summary Very tough race of green horses that have super high connections and aspirations but likely not motivated to try and win today. Follow the board if anything to find one who might be live and interested today. Otherwise, a race to watch closely for future plays. 

1 Tayet a sts by Cairo Prince out of a Street Cry dam who they paid 150k for as a yearling, she ships in from Churchill where she was 7th on debut and ran an ok speed figure to suggest start two might show some improvement. She was on the lead that day but gave it up in the stretch. Perhaps they will change tactics here. 

2 Make Me Laugh a 185k yearling by Distorted Humor out of an Unbridleds song dam, makes her 3rd life start, tried the grass last time and went longer, but now goes back to the dirt and shortens up a bit. She has been 4th twice with similar speed figures and it looks as if they are looking to find the right mix of distance and surface, while maintaining her at the MSW  level for now. Based on that, maybe they have it right today and she is a player here if they do.

3 Zaajel a fts by Street Sense, a homebred for Shadwell, and Pletcher, she showed high speed in early November when training, was not race, perhaps not one for the GPW surface, then eased back to top speed with her last workout before this engagement. Lets see how she looks in the ring and parading. She looks very viable first out if she passes those tests. 

4 Bonnie's the Best a fts by Distorted Humor, her mother raced 6 times but did not win a race. She was a 95k yearling purchase. Now owned by the trainer but not certain if he paid up then or bought her later. In any event, she will start out here in MSW, showed a bullet 3f workout when she first started working, and has worked longer and evenly going forward off that although not as quick. I suspect she is ready but wont be pushed too hard today. Pass and watch. 

5 Cajole by Flatter, a 3 time starter already who ships from Laurel and shortens up a bit today, she has 2 2nds from those 3 starts to date. She will have to improve her speed rating to take these down, but since they are shortening her up after starting out short and going longer, they must think that is where she does her best work. Shot. 

6 Breehazel a fts by Sano, by Distorted Humor. She has worked steady, but slow, for this group as a whole. I will watch her today to see if they are just saving it for the race or she will need a class adjustment to be viable and where that likely is. 

7 Mail Order by Liams Map, a fts for Mott, who is known not to have is fts ready to win when they debut. She was a 300k yearling and worked evenly so far. I will watch and pass for today.

8 Unbridled d'Oro a fts by Medaglia Doro, a homebred for Fipke, trained by Pletcher. She is out of a legit Grade 1 winner but has been brought to the race seemingly not as sharpened up as she might have been, suggesting the long game is the big stakes next spring and summer. Doesnt mean she doesnt have enough talent to take these down anyway, but a short price wouldnt be in order in my opinion. She is the lukewarm ML choice. 

9 Shannon by Nyquist a Derby winner by Uncle Mo, the 2nd starter in the field for trainer Matz, ships in from Laurel and going longer for her 2nd lifetime start. She was a 205k yearling, then a 290k 2yo in training purchase. She was 4th in that start at Laurel and ran a speed figure that plays with this bunch if she goes forward and does a shade better. She draws outside for her second straight start. If she does okay here and draws better next time, she could be a price play then. She is up against it with the post today when she isnt the best on paper to begin with. 

10 Mission Up a fts on the dirt by Noble Mission, suggesting this is a test ride for when she gets on turf which is her breeding suggestion. She is a homebred who has worked steadily, but much slower than the group she meets as a whole. Pass and watch today. 

In case you wondered.

Good Shabos

Cool Horse Names

Theycallmeprincess

Rub My Belly

Topo Grigio

Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 19, 2020

 Race 1 MDN CLM 20k 7 1/2F

Summary. A mixed bag with about half no chance shots while the other half all have reasons to step up, but arent certain to do so. Likely a good race to get a price on something that takes unusual money and/or looks great parading and warming up. Tough race to make just one horse on paper, which makes it a good chance to make money if you can pick 3 or 4 price horses and get one of them to come through.

1 Gran Patron by Poseidons Warrior, who is by Speightstown, and like him, throws many who are very fast for as long as they can last, and somewhat tough relatively speaking if they get their own way, this one makes his 4th life start and 2nd of this meet, and has showed little to date in terms of overall speed. He will go longer today and try the turf for the first time. He will be a big longshot and actually rises in class slightly to get on the turf. I suppose they are just trying him out to see if the distance and surface change will help. I will wait to see if they do. Looks like wild stabs in the dark to me and a class adjustment to Tampa is the more likely elixer he will need to be competitive. He was an early scratch. 

2 Capture the Crown by Uncaptured, makes his 5th life start, the 3rd this year after a long gap of more than a year after his first two starts last year. He will go shorter here, but as his speed overall so far has been subpar, even for a group like this, and the best he has managed is 7th in his debut last year, and two 9ths in his return this year, I can't use him without seeing something positive first. Massive longshot.

3 Rey de Ligas bred in Chile but not raced there, has had two tries at this circuit, neither impressive. He was 3rd of 4 in a MSW taken off the turf which decimated the field size, the 4th one was no runner at all, the top 2 distanced this guy. He followed that up with a 4th place finish last time, and a much higher speed figure which certainly plays with this bunch. That was on the turf, and he comes back on that surface today and goes longer, obviously his intended surface and distance. His trainer seems to get them to run and thus, he is a player in here. He also cuts his tag from 35k to 20k. I suspect that based on his breeding, he is going to try and wire them. I'm not certain he can get the entire distance, but he will likely try. 

4 Treasure Run by Treasure Beach, so bred for the turf, has had 13 tries and has yet to make the ticket, while running so so speed figures for this type of group. He will cut back slightly here. His trainer is a very low percentage winner, but he does occasionally bring in some crazy longshots in races like this. That has to be considered in a field like this of cheap horses.

5 Call Bros by Sky Mesa is a homebred making his 8th start and is the ML favorite. He has several factors in his favor, being that he gets Paco Lopez, has been 2nd and 3rd in his last two and his speed figures are consistently faster than most of these. Yet, he is a 7 time maiden, so, like many Sky Mesa's, he knows how to get beat near the line when he should not. One might argue he could earn a good buck this meet by being 2nd 3 times and then waiting to break his maiden near the end of the meet when the big players go elsewhere so he is viable at the next level against the locals next summer in short fields filled with pretenders. One could argue that. i will be that one to argue that. Take note that he ran an unbelievable speed figure in his first lifetime start, then a horrid one in his 2nd start, and since, they have kept him even, but not good enough to graduate. That one bad effort was his only try on dirt, so he is one dimensional as well, just another reason to keep him the bridesmaid a while longer.

6 Realtor Danny D by Big Drama, a late starting 3yo this year, making his 2nd start, after debuting this year at the end of the GPW meet after racing 3 times last year then shutting down almost a year. This will be his 5th life start, and he showed some promise before shut down. Is he ready to pop today? That's the question, as his previous speed would likely make him a major player here. Big Drama's seem to just pop at odds after a few mediocre starts and if he follows that pattern, today or next time is likely the time to play for that. He sprinted last time for 12.5k, but goes much longer today and jacks his claiming tag up to 20k, so his price will be good if you are playing him. I want to see how he appears in the flesh, but he is a useful add if you are going against CallBros. He has enough speed to beat him if he is fit and ready. He was a short price last time on his return and while 8th, he wasnt beat a long way. Watch the betting pattern on him. He gets Panici, who brings in a lot of longshots like this.

7 Jupiter Blues by Astrology, who is by A P Indy, has been off more than a year, and goes for his trainer owner who brings in some crazy longshots you dont see coming. This one will drop from 50k last year and start out at 20k, going on the turf, which was the intention last year but the race was taken off the turf, he went to the lead as a big longshot, then backed away sharply enough to get a 0 speed figure, and now retools a year later. One to look at is he is yet another in this race who could turn the car around just like that and get off at the win exit. Or he could be way up the track. He is just that type. He will be a first time gelding today on his return. 

8 Sierra Cat a 5yo by Factum, who is by Storm Cat and was a European runner imported here but did no good at all and only made 23k in his life, this one makes only his 4th life start for a trainer I dont know at all. He is a homebred who only started his career this year, so something probably happened when he was younger training down. He shows nothing so far to indicate he can run with the better ones in here. I have to see something positive. Lets see him compete and then he can be considered. If he blows up the tote board today at 80-1, I will miss the party this time.

9 Big Perm by Noble Mission, so bred for the turf, and thus he has been scratched a lot this summer and fall because of all the off the turf racing. This will be his second start of the meet, so he comes back on a two week rotation, got slightly shorter after finishing 3rd last time for this claiming tag. Clearly the connections feel they have a beat on him. He is a decent mid level claiming horse at about a mile on the turf. He raced at Monmouth all summer before shipping here and being scratched out many times, and was forced onto the dirt a few times there. Last time he got what he wanted, and produced his best life speed figure by far, one that blows this field away if he can duplicate that. As a 7 time maiden, that is in question, but just off his last race, he is the likely favorite or co favorite. Hard not to use him, but I wouldn't take a very short price. Noble Missions seem to lack a little grit in the stretch from my experience, even though they are fast and legit otherwise. 

10 Jealous Eyes by Will Take Charge goes shorter here, after shipping in last time from Keeneland and getting a new trainer for the same owner. That was a huge class drop but this time he stays at the same class level for a sharp trainer who bring in quite a few price winners as she tinkers with ones just like this. He took quite a bit of money last time, being a 10-1 ML but going off at 5-1 with one late hit, but ending up 9th nonetheless. He comes back on two weeks this time and keeps the same jockey, who is a high end jockey with this type of horse. While 9th, his speed figure is good enough to beat most of these if not all of them. He is a price option if he takes less money this time due to the finish last time. 

11 Future Prince by Amiras Prince,who is a European turf bred but low profile type, and has sired a few okay runners, this one makes start number 9 and will be a massive longshot. He has yet to make the top 4 in his career, 7th in his last 4 starts, and gets the outside post this time on top of that. He switches from sprint to route here but stays on turf. I can't see him off the current variables.

Race 3 MDN CLM 16k 6F

Summary. Several who are capable, but inconsistent and may or may not show up. That kind of cheap maiden claimer race. Wouldn't be afraid to take a price or a flyer one of the others if they gave me reason to do that. 

1 Pa Encima a fts by Bodemeister, didnt sell well as a yearling and shows so so ok mediocre works, thus debuts for 16k and will have to be seen. Likely a watch, wait and pass today.

2 Cobb by Brethren, an Arindel homebred who gets a new trainer today. He got 2nd last time in his 7th lifetime start, and being a 2yo who started the first week of May, has been going a long time. He has suspect variables. He figures on paper, but he did last time too when he didnt get it done at 2-1. He looks like a good one to go against if he is the post time fave. They have given up the MSW chase, but he still arrives a maiden after two tries at claimers. 

3 True Identity by Commissioner, makes start number 7 for his trainer owner and his second of the meet. He will go shorter here and perhaps that will help as his speed figures are less than inspiring. He shows a 2nd and 3rd with better speed figures in the previous two. I guess he is possible if he turns it around and the distance cut back helps him finish. Shot.

4 Exxtop by Exagerrator, a homebred makes his 4th life start. He comes off two 2nd place finishes with similar speed figures which play with this bunch. Obviously a logical paper contender. Likely many in here, he will go slightly shorter. His trainer is high percentage. If he passes the walking ring and post parade inspection, he is tough to go against at a short price.

5 Sidarth by Temple City, who sires a lot of good turf runners, but seems to do okay enough with dirt runners, runs for the 5th shortens up for the 2nd consecutive race and has run okay overall, but not a wow type. His best speed figure, two back when he finished 2nd would do with these. Much like many in here, whomever shows up today and has the better day is the probable winner. Many of these are variable in terms of when they show up or dont. 

6 Master of Disaster by Khozan, another making start 5, making no change in terms of variables, runs about the same speed figures as the others and was 2nd two back. Very similar to the one above. He has a longshot jockey and a trainer who brought in a longshot bomb the other day. Value play on all that, but not one you would have confidence in as a single horse to play by himself in this race. In his favor is that he raced his first two races at MSW, and he clearly is not that quality, so this is really his 3rd start where he can be considered as a viable option, and thus, he is one 2nd out of 2 legit starts, while others have had more chances with these types. 

7 Royal Meeting by Uncaptured, makes his 6th life start. He also has a Rahy dam, which is a strike against him in my book as he tends to stamp them as hangers. He has a similar profile to the two above, same amount of starts, 2nd two back, lots of chances but cant seal the deal, so so claimer type. Based on his breeding, he is the one I would toss of that trio.

8 Jr Speed a sts by Speightster, goes longer and drops in class, and thus, he has promise relative to some of the others in this race, and goes for a trainer who can make them go. He will need to improve, but he has room to and bears watching in the post parade and on the betting board. That will decide for me if he is to be used as one of many in here. He sold for 85k as a yearling, but was dumped off for 12k as a 2yo. That isnt good, but he is in for 16k, so maybe he has found the sweet spot. 

9 Little Dude by Tapiture out of a Harlans Holiday dam, he has hang written all over him. Also a very similar profile to some above, 5 starts, mediocre results, goes slightly shorter here, and similar, inconsistent speed figures. I suppose he is a protection add, but terrible value if he goes off 4-1 or less.

10 Captain Kirk a fts by Conveyance, who is by Indian Charlie out of a Holy Bull dam, won some minor stakes and was 15th in the Derby. He will have to be seen to assess what he can do. He shows a fast and improved work two weeks ago. If he takes money based on that, he is one to add in a minor way on the chance he has more and many of these revert to the bad day part of their Sybil personality. 

11 Globaltroublecoco by Global Response who is by A P Indy out of an Elusive Quality dam, shows many of the bad attitude traits of Elusive Quality and in fact has caused trouble in many races, dumping her rider last time. 7 starts, no top 3 finishes and a bad post. She can consider herself tossed. 

Race 4 MDN CLM 25k 1m

Summary. This race was not handicapped as I didnt have enough time to get to it. A good lesson. If you cant do it right, just pass the race. There will always be more races but if you bet races you shouldn't and lose, you have to win that money back to just get even, which makes no sense. 

Race 11 Maiden Special Weight 1m

Summary. 10 horse field, 4 first time starters with top pedigrees and connections, and the balance are split between 2nd time starters and an equal amount with slightly more starts, all shippers and many changing distance and three changing surface. A tough one that mostly you will need to see them on the track to delete a few and make the race playable if you can go against the favorite. That is probably going to be the 4th time starter from the outside going for Pletcher with a hall of fame jockey on top. Likely to be overbet, but not for sure one to go against. 

1 Girl Dad by Malibu Moon and purchased for 125k at the 2yo in training sale in March, the most experienced of the bunch with 4 starts under his belt, and two on the board finishes out of those 4 starts. He ships in from New York, 3 weeks ago being 2nd there and 3rd before that. He has progressed nicely and will cut back to a mile today. Obvious contender who might bring a decent price due to the high profile of many in here. He worked a light trip last Saturday, similar to how he prepped for his last start to keep him fit for this race. 

3 Kentucky Pharoah by American Pharoah, makes his 3rd start as a homebred for Calumet. His dam won a million bucks and a couple of nice high end stakes in Canada, and placed in many others. He seems to be progressing nicely as he upped his speed figure in start 2 in Kentucky and now winters down here, I'm sure in the hope he is a Florida Derby type or better. Lets see what he can do in this seemingly tough and deep field. Some of the A Pharoah's are goofs, bad actors and dont run straight, so that is something to look for. Not all though. He throws a wide variety of types. His dam has a turf pedigree and he gets on the turf for the first time today. That is something to consider.

4 He'spuregold by Vancouver, an Aussie bred who has two in this race, This guy has a very strong Turf pedigree and is a homebred sent out by top trainer Nihei, coming off a 3rd in the debut in Kentucky with an impressive speed figure for a fts. He will come right back, same distance and surface while shipping for the winter. Big shot on paper. Big ML and he might slip through the cracks at the window if that ML holds. 

5 Ultimate Gift a fts by Pioneerof The Nile, one of two starters in this race for Pletcher, and very high end connections who paid 350k for him, but has not shown great speed training so far, not relative to many of these. 4-1 ML, but likely to go off closer to 8-1 or even a bit higher. I'm likely to exclude him and include the 4 in his place.

6 Not Stormy a sts by Got Stormy who sold for 11k as a yearling, so obviously, he is the low profile horse in this bunch. There might be times this winter if he sticks around he catches much softer fields than he meets here, but today is not that day. He ships in from Belmont, his only start in October and goes longer here, off a speed figure that isnt anywhere near the ballpark with this bunch to hit the ticket, he would have to show vast improvement to be competitive. I will pass on him today and watch him for a better spot to see if he is the type that will do that day or a bad favorite on maybe a class drop.

7 Advanced Placement by Point of Entry, fts who shows mediocre works at best, he will have to be seen. Off those works and his pedigree, he is overmatched here. Being a homebred, I'm sure the long game is in play here and he could be 3 starts away from being a win candidate.

8 Van Dusen a fts by Vancouver, this guy has been sold 3 times, as a weanling, then again for a small or no profit at 115k as a yearling, then sold off for 20k as a 2yo. None of that is encouraging. In spite of all that, he has worked well prepping for these and a bullet sharp 3f workout on Sunday, yet he will go long to start his career. Seems like a prep race for a try in a turf sprint, for possibly a 32k claiming tag down the road. He will be watched today with that in mind.

9 Public Information a sts for Chad Brown by Into Mischief and his top owner, his dam was 2nd in her debut, then won the next start in a MSW, so she was ready early then only made 4 more life starts, chasing stakes horses and being a mid pack type. The connections paid 400k for him based on his pedigree I would think and he switches to turf and goes longer after finishing 8th at Keeneland in his debut. He is the 3-1 ML here and if he were to go off as favorite, he would be a bad favorite, win or lose. HIs speed figure in race 1 doesnt stack up with many of these. He will simply be bet on his sale price and connections. 

10 Courageously a fts for Casse and Oxley who they paid 625k for as a yearling. He is by Quality Road. His dam by Empire Maker made 200k, raced a long time and won some minor stakes at Charles Town and Ellis Park. He could be anything, but right now, he is just a yearling with a big ticket hanging over his head. His works leading up to this start are fast enough to suggest he can compete if he is mature enough to do that. Lets see how he looks and acts pre race. On the fence on him.

11 Munqad by War Front, a homebred and Pletcher's other one in here, will accept the outer post and makes start 4. He seems on the edges so far, not horrible though, and ships in from Keeneland. Pletcher sometimes takes his time with the big time homebred types, as he knows those owners will wait if the horse is projected to be worth it. Thus, he hasnt tagged him yet, he will try him shorter and on turf today. Wide open race and he is just another who will have to step up to beat what looks like a deep and tough crew of prospects.

Cool horse names

Shes One Mad Momma

Diamond Oops

Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 18, 2020

 Race 1 MDN CLM  35 7 1/2F

Summary. There are several good options here, with many fts of which one is going to be the likely favorite off suspect workouts for a top trainer who, through no fault of his own, has his horses overbet most of the time. A good race to go deep and cover all bases. No shippers but a lot of class droppers.

1 Sip'n Dip a fts by Wicked Tune, who is by Cocordes Tune, and was a decent racehorse, is a homebred who has worked just okay and likely needs a start or two to get used to racing. Lets see how she stacks up for 35k. Breaking from the inside is also a problem for a young inexperienced filly like this.

2 Dreaming of Audrey a homebred sts by Field Commission, who is by Service Stripe, who is by Deputy Minister makes her 2nd start and drops out of MSW. She took no money first out and her longshot jockey sticks here on the class drop. She was the longest shot on the board that day, off last, made a late run in the stretch but couldnt get to the top pack. Clearly, with more experience and easier competition, she should be a player in with these.

3 Lullula a fts by Flintshire, so bred for the turf. She shows some very fast works, and if she can run farther in a race like this and carry that, which her sire was known for, she is a big player. She will have to be seen though for manners and composure.

4 La Dame a fts by Karakontie, who is by Bernstien and was good right off the bat, this one was bred by Marylou Whitney, has worked every week for 2 months and shows steady, unspectacular speed. Perhaps she is a grinding type that does well going longer. Tote money likely tells the tale of her chances today. She blistered 3f early in her training, but they chose to aim her longer and not sprint, thus you would expect she has one burst late if she is in striking distance. Shot.

5 Katiesdreamgirl by Young Brian, a son of Hard Spun who made one lifetime start, a win, then disappeared after they turned down 500k for him as a 2yo. This one makes her 4th lifetime start, and if she shows her sires speed, which was very good in that one and only start, she can be a player here. She improved slightly on that from start 2 to 3, and got 2nd then. She will drop in class here from 40k to 35k and go shorter and makes her 2nd start on turf. The kind of fine tune adjustments you would expect from a sharp trainer like Nicks. She has been off since just before Labor Day, and worked steady and even suggesting she is already fit enough that she doesnt need to be drilled. Due to her sires short career and her layoff, she will have to be seen to make sure its not some soreness or soundness issue. If not, she is a top contender with a lot of fts who lack her experience and form.

6 Goodbye Carolina a fts by Uncle Vinny, who is by Uncle Mo and was a so so racehorse making 225k, broke his maiden in his first start and then won the Sanford at 2, but didnt really go forward after that. This filly is a homebred who shows two very unimpressive works so far. She will have to be seen, but on paper looks like a longshot with a lot of work to do to become a viable racehorse.

7 Short Circuit by Street Boss, a sts who drops in class and goes longer. Her dam was unraced, but she has had two turf winners from her two foals She certainly looked the part in the post parade and took heavy money along the entire cycle. She broke okay, but was pinballed hard and squeezed, and was well back.She made some decent attempts to catch up, then carried wide and bumped a shade in the turn, and again in the stretch, but was even or flat late. The type of effort to go forward off of and if her 12-1 ML is close to what you get today, she is good value 2nd out on the class drop.

8 Smarty Queen by Honor Code, who was a late runner and a good one when he did that, and this filly out of a Hard Spun dam, makes her 3rd life start. She improved her speed figure from start 1 to 2 and its a bit better than the other contenders who have run before in this race. Hence, she is the top pick of most of the track handicappers. She was 2nd going for 40k last time at 19-1, but you wont see those odds today, and she cuts back slightly. She took some money hits that day, indicating somone or many thought she was going to outrun her post time odds, which she did. She paraded on her toes, but very managable, loaded well, broke sharp and to the lead, held that lead the entire way while being pressured by another who faded, but was picked up deep stretch by one who tripped out. As she cuts back today, it looks as though while that is a small cutback, its where she seems to lose some energy, so a wise move by an old pro trainer. Big chance today.

9 My Miss Miracle a fts for Pletcher who gets Saez, she was a 190k yearling by Kantharos out of a million dollar winning dam, and thus, the connections dont get any higher end than this one. Because of that, she is the ML choice and will likely go off in the 2-1 range as the chalk. She has worked just okay along the way, but her last two from the gate were not very good strictly on time. She will have to be seen, but likely bad value as a favorite if that is where she lands.

10 Tequa by Dialed In, already a 6 time starter in a field with a lot of firsters, many sts and a few with slightly more expience, has had her chances. However all of those chances were at MSW, and they abort that today, along with putting her on the turf again, for which she was 2nd going 5f on debut and 5th going a mile, both at MSW. Since it rained off many turf races the last couple of months, she was forced onto the dirt, and now she gets back on the intended surface, goes slightly shorter and uses the class drop angle. All of that will get her some tote money, and the issue is probably she has some leavers inside her and she has an outer post. That should keep the price high enough to make her a value use in this spot. Her first life race on the turf produced a speed figure far above this entire field to date. She is capable if things go her way.

11 Rouway a fts by Gone Astray, a homebred with 2 okay works but starts from an outer post and is 30-1 ML. Unless she takes unusual money here, I will wait and watch one from her. Her dam wasnt a great money earner, but showed high speed ratings relative to a group like this. She has potential if she can run like that, likely next time though.

12 Honorary Guest a sts by Tapizar and out of a Giants Causeway dam, will get the far outside post. Top trainer Breen drops her in class, switches her to turf and asks her to go longer here for high end owners the West's. I'd say he is building to a possible win, but not in this spot. She isn't impossible, but up against it to take the entire field down from this starting spot when there are many options inside of her. 

Race 2 MDN CLM  12.5 1m

Summary. Many who have had a lot of chances, and one who hasnt who will be a heavy favorite shipping in. If that one bombs out, and he looks like a ticking time bomb, anything else pays well and some longer than others who could be considered value relatively speaking.

1 Majority Rules a 4yo by Tiznow, makes start number 9. He seemed to have some promise last year, when he ran 2 good races at Saratoga and Belmont, high speed figure races where he was 2nd, then tailed off the next time and missed almost a year when he showed up at Keeneland and ran poorly, Then he shipped to Florida, started to pick it up again, but his last two have been bad. This will be his 2nd start for new connections and they raise him up slightly in class, although he has beaten far better before when he runs to his ability and potential. Last time, for the new connections, he paraded ok, loaded well, broke slow but not bad, was way back, did little and was well back of the top 3, splitting horses late to just nab 4th with a very suspect group. He's not hopeless in a field like this, but he will have to step it back up.

2 Elbrus by Malibu Moon, was a 200k yearling then dumped off for 15k at a 2yo sale. That says a lot about how he was training down. In start number 5 last time, he tried the turf, but to no avail as he was the same as always, a plodding grinder who runs mid pack and does little. Back to dirt today. Going slightly longer. He is probably good for 4th or 5th money again, but cant be recommended for better than that. 

3 Old Main by Lookin At Lucky, also makes start number 6. He is the 2nd ML choice and played that way by most of the track handicappers. He comes out of the same race as the 1 horse, but this guy was a solid 2nd, while not a threat to the easy winner, and has decent steady form. He is possible if the chalk doesnt produce. Hopefully his price stays up there on the overbet of the favorite.

4 Express Boy by Orb, is a 13 time loser going longer. I cant see him in this field with viable options. Acacia takes him on top and I will listen to her reasons to see if she can sway me. His two best speed figures in the summer beat this bunch, but that was 5 bad starts ago now. 

5 Meteorito by Gone Astray, makes start number 4, goes longer and comes off the turf. He has two 9ths and a 4th, is 30-1 ML, and unless he takes unusual money or wows me in the post parade, I cant see him. He was off an entire year before his last start, so perhaps you could argue he wasnt fit yet. That's some kind of bullshit reason I guess. Bullshit excuse reason horses sometimes win races like this. He was cold on the board then. If he were to take some kind of unusual money here, I could be tempted to add him on the protection angle.

6 Ultraconfident by Cross Traffic, has seen the gate 12 times thus far. He has one 3rd place finish out of all that in his 2nd life start. If I was crossing traffic riding him, I wouldnt feel very confident he would get me safely to the sidewalk in time. He is another going longer and coming off the turf and is 30-1 in the hopes that something from the kitchen sink approach shakes him into being a viable racehorse before he heads for a 4 claimer at Charlestown at the end of this meet .....or sooner. His last 2 speed figures wouldnt get him on the high 5 with this bunch.

7 I Got a Secret by Strong Mandate, who is by Tiznow out of a Deputy Minister dam, is a 2nd time starter shipping in from Belmont and dropping, no diving from 40k to 12.5k rather quickly in his career. Deputy Ministers are tough customers like he was, but also prone to the chronic lameness he had. This one will have to be seen to see which of those he most resembles. He should blow this group away, and 2-5 at post time is not out of the question. And questions this one certainly has. The question is what secret is the actual fact.......overally lame and going to detoriorate, or diving down to smoke this bunch before that happens. That is the call that has to be made her and what this race hinges on. Generally, in my experience, horses that debut for 40k and get 3rd dont drop in value by 70 percent unless their racing days are numbered. Doesnt mean he cant win, but it means he is no cinch. His dam broke her maiden at Gulfstream on the extreme class drop, then ended her career shortly after with two claiming wins at Turfway and was bred shortly after. Did this guy drop just in time too?

8 Liquid Louie by Old Forester, an ontario bred who makes start number 10 for a trainer who ships here every winter, drops, changes surfaces and will go shorter as the 3rd ML choice. In reality, he ran for 14k Canadian last time, which is less than 12.5 American. But he did get 4th and 2nd before that. He is possible if the fave totally bombs out and the others dont step up. He is an attrition add.

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight 1m

Summary. Short field, but deep. Post parade and tote betting will give indications if this race is a pass or play. Likely a pass on first glance. 

1 Well Done West is a sts by Awesome Again. He ships in from Keeneland for trainer Gargan, goes longer and moves up to MSW from a maiden claimer. Therefore, the connections probably like him or want to protect their investment until they can figure him out. He was 3rd that day and ran an impressive speed figure for a first out starter.

2 Emperador by Curlin for trainer Brown, makes his 3rd life start here. He is the 2-1 ML choice here after running 3rd and 4th in the first two tries. His speed figures are similar to the rail horse. Being a homebred, they appear to have waited on him. He has worked twice since down in Florida, the 2nd one on Sunday much sharper than before. He will go shorter here. I suspect them to send him.

3 No More Business by Itsmyluckyday, makes his 3rd start and goes longer. He has been off since Labor Day and only 4th and 5th so far this summer against softer than he would likely meet in the winter when the big time trainers like Gargan and Brown bring the high end ones with potential futures. Hard to like based on all that and he is the 12-1 ML because of all that. 

4 Emperor Ofthe Nile is a fts for Breen by Pioneerof The Nile. He was a 400k yearling but now debuts two weeks short of his 4th birthday. His works are mediocre for a MSW runner and he meets some who have raced and done okay so far. Unless he takes money, he is one to pass on and watch to see what he has to offer.

6 Noble Empire by Empire Maker, for Pletcher, he has made 5 life starts, but only 1 this year. His last start was in January at Tampa, where he finished 2nd and ran a huge speed figure, one that towers over this group, but then on the shelf until now. I'm sure there is a story as to why that is. I want to see how he looks. If he is right, he blows these away. If. He works steady like he is a sound horse, so maybe it was something else. 

In case you are interested

Cool names today

Hushed Hijinks 

Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 17, 2020

 Race 1 MDN CLM  25   6 1/2F

Summary. Both of the likely favorites are okay but suspect. One might be a one paced hanger, the other a no good class dropper who has to go much lower. All of the others have reasons to suspect any one of them could be the one that turns it around today. Other than the fts and the rail horse, the balance of the field goes longer, and longer usually means something comes late when others are fading or tiring. Post parade and betting action key here.

1 Pretty Rachel by Dominus, who is by Smart Strike, has made 4 starts to date, is the 2nd ML choice but the top choice of the track handicappers except for one, who picks her 3rd. She has been 2nd in 3 of those starts, and finished 5th in the other when she was jacked up to 50k from 25k and asked to go a shade longer. She rebounded last time on the drop back down and cut back to this distance. Last time was first time Zayas, and he sticks here. She ran a solid steady 2nd last time but never looked like she was a threat to the winner although she was well in range of her. More than that, her main habit or trait seems to be she can break sharp, but then immediately runs one speed the entire way, which means if she gives the leader enough of a lead, she wont be able to go by unless that one collapses. Thus, she is a vulnerable favorite if you can find one who fits the bill. 

2 We Bless Luck by Union Rags, is a sts who was 10th on debut, but now switches to dirt, drops in class and goes longer in the hopes one or more of those changes helps her out. She drops from 40k to 25k here and gets a new jockey. In that first start, she was well composed, behaved and acted like a decent enough horse, but then broke slow enough to be well back, and never got involved. She didnt quit either and while 10th, she was not well distanced and keeping up with the back pack. She isnt impossible here with all the changes and some experience. Since that race she has worked well twice from the gate and two other works were okay too.

3 Never My Love by Gone Astray, a sts for Jane Cibelli who goes longer and takes a class drop here. She cuts her tag in half, and goes a shade longer, something Cibelli does very well is making very subtle distance changes with good results. She took periodic steady hits of money last time but only ran 4th. Her female lineage is horrendous. Her dam never ran, her 2nd dam ran 4 times but was no good and her 3rd dam won 1 race out of 4 and made 14k. I'm sure they wont hesistate to keep diving her in price if she doesnt produce quickly. That doesnt mean she cant run today, but its a factor to think about. She gets a switch to Paco today, and the combo of Paco and Cibelli is very potent as a rule. She was very green first time out parading, but then settled and is a very nice mover and looks racehorse fit and tight warming up. She certainly looks the part of a runner. She is a price contender here if that comes. I'd probably need 4-1 to 5-1 to use her. 

4 Peachy Queen the 2-1 ML choice sent out by top trainer Gargan is by Runhappy, whose runners have been very unimpressive to date. This will be her 4th life start, as she drops out of MSW at Keeneland where she finished 10th of 10 and keeps the same jockey. Being a shipper, class dropper and changing distance, that added to the jockey and trainer in this case, she will take heavy money. She looks like a bad favorite if she plays out that way. Her connections paid 180k for her but based on her form and horrid speed figures, she looks more like a 16k type, if that. She will have to show a lot more to get my vote.

5 Bourma is a Maryland bred fts by Bourbon Courage, who is by Lion Heart, the sire of Kantharos and Uncaptured among others, and thus, has a license to be very tough when it comes to decide who wins at the wire. Bourbon Courage broke his maiden in his first life start with a very high speed figure for a maiden, won the Super Derby and was 4th in the Breeders Cup Sprint. Her dam is by Smarty Jones, a horse that only lost once in his career and was nearly a Triple Crown winner, and her dam won 100k and 4 races, breaking her maiden in her 2nd life start. In spite of all that, this filly only sold for 1500 in a mixed sale.  Her works are steady but unspectacular, although she did show decent speed in the 3 furlong work. She is the only fts in the field and could be the sleeper if she is ready to run and some of the higher profile faves dont run well with the class drop angle. 

6 Lady Jae by Big Drama, a local sire who sends out a lot of winners, but mostly ones who lose as faves and win as longer shots, makes her 3rd life start. She is a homebred who improved a bit start 1 to 2, going slightly longer and she goes slightly longer again. She is a viable proposition here as a value play if she is ignored and goes off near or above her ML quote. She broke slow in her first start and didnt run well, and was very unsettled and jumpy parading in her last start. Hopefully she shows some maturity this time and that will likely have to be the case to put her in play for the win. She is very much one paced, so more distance might help her in this case. 

7 Lady Tapatia by Laoban, who is by Uncle Mo and won one life race but ran in the Preakness as a maiden and won the Jim Dandy after that. She makes start number 3 and ships in from Tampa after making two MSW starts in the summer, finishing 3rd in the 2nd one and improving her speed figure vastly to a level that probably beats these. She will go longer here for her return while she drops into a lower end claimer. The layoff is concerning, but she will have to be seen. Likely a player and viable as many in here are. She gets a longshot jockey in Reyes, so that is something to take note of.

8 One Night Stand a homebred daughter of Macho Uno for the combo of trainer and owner, she will go slightly longer here after finishing 10th in her 2nd life start, and thus drops into a lower level claimer looking for level competition. It looks like they simply aimed too high with her and took her ambition away, and they aim to rectify that here coming off 2 months rest but steady works. She has broken terrible both times she has raced and given herself no chance. These types sometimes click in and once they get out clean and near the front pack, they pick it up. Yet another with some reasons to think she can turn it around on a dime.

Race 3 MDN CLM  35 5F 

Summary. One 4yo who is 30-1 ML, two fts who are both 15-1 and the rest of which none really stand out from the other. Two likely favorites with big question marks and others who have reasons to think they can run big today. The value spread has to be right, but if it is, its a playable race.

1 Emperor's Song is a homebred coming off a long layoff and making life start number 5, by Empire Way, who is by Empire Maker out of the great mare Delta Princess, but wasnt much of a racehorse himself. She last ran December 15th of 2019, so is now one year away. On that day, she ran 7f on the dirt for 12.5 claiming pressed the pace and tired and was vanned off. Thus, she comes back now, goes shorter, switches surface and jacks her claiming tag way up. She is the definition of a wildcard factor. She also has a newer, higher profile trainer. She has to be seen.

2 Princess Merida by Hunters Bay, the only 4yo in the field, with horrid form, a new trainer but same owner who was the trainer, and jacks her claiming tag up while she was overmatched lower. This combo had one like that yesterday, and it ran okay, but was no threat to the contenders. I will pass and watch this one. Maybe she improves and moves back down to the bottom with a shot to win a race. First she has to show something.

3 Sassy Cat by Creative Cause, the second runner for the trainer, as she also sends out the rail horse. Same owner breeder as well. This one however looks more viable or at least promising. This will be her 4th life start, and she missed more than a year before her last start, but now dives out of MSW into this claiming race, shortens up, drops in class and switches surfaces. All of those things should help, as she should be fitter, looks like a front end sprinter type and actually was on the lead to about 4 furlongs last time until she stopped badly right at 5f, and has a strong turf pedigree being by a son of Giants Causeway and a her dam is by Medalia Doro, who is by El Prado. Add in the class drop, and she is likely a player in here who may last the entire way, but tries to in any event. 

4 McAllens Music a fts by Macleans Music was only a 9k yearling and makes her debut 2 weeks short of her 4th birthday. Her works are slow and unless she takes a lot of tote money, I cant see her first start. She will have to show what she has. 

5 Shoug is a 3yo by Khozan who has been off since last January, which was only her 2nd life start. She was 3rd in a MSW that day at this distance on this surface and took significant betting money. And now its almost a year later, and she is back, in a claimer. She has worked 6 times heading into this race, and her speed figure in her last start makes her the best one if she can come back to that. Big if. Lets see what she looks like on the track. She has question marks as she is likely a short price.

6 Imhavinaverygooday is a fts by Shackleford who picks up a bug rider on debut. She was a 50k yearling. She worked 9 times at 2 in New York but never raced, as she is apparently a terrible workout runner, and 8 times at Gulfstream this year leading into this race, with similar results, barring one strong 3f work. At which point she was asked to go longer, and began to regress again. Who knows what she has? I'm inclined to pass on her and see if she can run 5f at race speed and then find a level. Interesting they didnt start her out at the lowest claiming level, as she would be unlikely to get claimed anyway. She has worked 17 times on dirt, never on turf, but starts her career on the turf. Strangest training regimen I've ever seen. The current trainer however has good numbers in terms of per start earnings and win percentage. 

7 Princess Coro by Cairo Prince, is the ML choice, and has made the most starts in this group at 8. She switches to turf, after a few starts on dirt, and tried the turf twice in the summer but at MSW level. She goes a furlong shorter here, but rises in class from 25k to 35k. If she is indeed the favorite, she is a bad value favorite. She went off the favorite last time, but was 2nd. She might be the type that does a lot of that and ends the meet making money but 0 for 12 lifetime. She had every chance last time, but while she ran straight, she just hangs and wont go by, despite very heavy urging from the jockey. 

8 Drawntomunny by Munnings out of a Ghostzapper mare, should be a good turf sprinter based on that, and makes her 6th life start for Cibelli after making one start at GPW in November after spending her summer at Monmouth. She started out with 2 starts last winter at Gulfstream. She has yet to make the top 5. She took massive hits of late money in her last start, which was an off the turf dirt race, and she clearly prefers the turf. She ran straight to the lead that day, let another go, but leveled out mid stretch. In her previous start, on the turf at Monmouth going a mile, she blasted out to the top, went a fast first quarter, led to about 6f but faded badly late. She runs hard and fast for as far as she can go and if she can do that here, at this distance, she could bottom them out.

Race 4 MDN CLM  50 6F

Summary. A short field with a clear short priced favorite and a 2nd choice that will be a much shorter price than the balance of the field. Probably looking at 4-5 and 5-2. Both of those have issues and any of the balance could take them given the right circumstances. 

1 Frosted Mistress is a fts by Frosted who is a homebred trained by Nicks, She looks ready to start, but not to win. She will have to be seen. Nobody is a toss in this race if you go against the chalk. She has a weak female family and her second dam is by Storm Bird. 

2 Patty H by Flatter, she is by far the most raced in this bunch, as this is start 6 for her. She has worked her way down the class ranks along the way, now slashing her tag from 150k last time to 50k here after aborting the MSW trail, but last time was only 6th as the 6-5 choice. She will shorten to 6f here, but has failed twice at that distance too. On the fence with her as to whether she is raced out, or looking for a better spot to find a level she can take them all the way. Her jockey here was on the winner last time against her, stalked her and then blew by. I'm sure he knows she is the type that can only take them so far on the lead and will seek some sort of trip to manage her. She shows no works for the last month, perhaps trying to freshen her up as she has been very hard raced for a 2yo.

3 Izshefrosted a sts by Frosted whose speed figures is in line with the 2 horse and comes back to the same claiming level she raced first out when she was 3rd. She made a very impressive pre race appearance, ran out hard from an outer post, contested the lead wide, and stayed on well for 3rd while the favorite romped. She is the value play here if the top 2 ML choices take the money you would expect.

4 Snackster is a fts by Speightster, she shows 3 works, all of them good, the last one at 5f very very good. Another to use against the chalks if that is the play.

5 Air Cavalry is a 100k yearling by Air Force Blue, who is by War Front, who started out twice in MSW, 12th on debut, then 9th, then dropped into a claimer last time, switched to the dirt going 6f where she finished 3rd and now comes back at the same distance, surface and tag. Her speed figures however are well short of many of these. She has room for improvement, with the recent class drop, surface change and distance adjustments, but she will have to step it up. 2yo's can do that. Minor shot if she can and others bomb out. She has excellent gate speed and that is a plus in a short field like this.

6 Exact by Competitive Edge, who is by Super Saver, goes out for Pletcher, drops into a claimer for the first time, and had been racing in New York prior to her last try on turf at 5f at GPW, where she went off at even money from an outside post and finished 3rd. She is a chestnut filly and looks like a bit of a sulker, as well as suspect confirmation up front. Even though she is hitting the ticket, Pletcher wastes no time in tagging her here, which suggests she is a disappointment in terms of what they thought they had training down. She had to steady sharply last time when a horse in front of her lost the rider, but she wasnt doing much at that point anyway and had a clear run in the stretch and didnt do much then either. She has hanger written all over her.

Race 5 MDN CLM  35 7 1/2F

Summary. There are no shippers in this race, two for Sano, many going shorter, the likely favorite is taking a class drop. At first glance, a wide open race where something will improve or trip out and win it. Tote money will likely give you value contenders. Favorites must be watched post parading as they have attitude issues coming in.

1 Congrats Again a 2yo by Congrats who started on May 1 and has already made 9 starts. When they named him Congrats Again they named him right. He is durable but has missed the ticket in his last 3, so perhaps he is tiring. This will be his first try on turf, so I suppose that is something to go on. Playing devils advocate, they didnt try him on turf all this time until he tailed off on dirt. He is hard to like as a win candidate.

2 Andres Eduardo by Kantharos, has made 7 starts and not made the ticket yet, but we have seen this movie with Sano many times. He is a crafty, possibly shifty character to be kind. His runners just suddenly seem to click in after many starts and usually pay well when they pop. Many Kantharos's are tough customers that fight for the win. I wouldn't discount this one on the surface of his current record. He goes shorter here and drops from 40k to 35k, a subtle change. Last time, he ran out from the 10 post at 50-1 to gun to the lead and took them a long way before he gave it up mid stretch. The slight cut back in distance and the better post mean he can possibly leave out and sit mid race and make a second move. Decent longshot add in this type of race.

3 Champion Up by Carpe Diem, is a fts for Sano. He has a bullet 3f work two weeks ago and then two medium speed 5f works since, the last on Sunday. Another to consider although as a fts, going longer, he will have no experience with that type of trip. 

4 Trinni Summer by Trinniberg, who is by Tueflesberg, is 30-1 ML, has shown nothing to date in 2 starts, switches to turf here and goes longer. He is impossible to make on paper or common sense and his trainer is 4 percent from 50 plus starters this year. He wouldnt just blow up the tote board, he might cause an earthquake from Florida to Texas if he were to win this.

5 Sweeney's Cat by Kittens Joy, so bred for turf, shipped in from Penn as they are shut down, got on turf but had a terrible post and ran 11th in week 1 of the meet. However, he had a terrible post, ran out anyway, carried 6 wide in the turn, then wide all the way to the far turn, still contending, was near the lead when another carried him sharply wide, and then, when he cleared that one, another veered sharply into his path and wiped him out. Off all that, with a better post this time, he can be a value play if he can run like that again without the roadblocks and scenic tour.

6 Ghostlyprince by Cairo's Prince, ran okay last time when switched to a claimer and was 2nd on the turf. He comes right back with a slight drop in claiming tag and is the likely favorite. Last time, he was somewhat unruly and rank in the post parade, then certainly a bad actor in the gate, came out running but sharply right, bumped and pinballed with others, then had his head crooked in the first turn, made the lead deep stretch but let another collar him. He shows troubling signs for one you will likely have to take a short price on today.

7 Raulito by Overanalyze, makes start number 5 and shortens up in distance after finishing 5th. Minor shot but others look better on paper unless he wows me in the post parade and warm up.

8 Golovkin by Mshawish, who is by Medaglio Doro, and thus has a turf pedigree, drops out of MSW but his last speed figure was very good for this group. However, he is a bit of a rogue and rebel in the post parade, and he was running in horrible in the stretch and then quit towards the wire. He can be beaten based on the negatives he presents. He is a first time gelding here.

9 Kathern's Joy is a sts by Creative Cause, finished 2nd first out from the same post as he gets today, but shifts to the turf, which his pedigree suggests should favor him. He also goes shorter. He has a legit shot against favorites who have issues.

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight 6F

Summary. 4 first time starters and two with lots of experience. None going longer, class dropping or shifting surface. We could be looking at a speed duel and anything that can rate off that might be the one.

1 Magic Eclipse is a fts by Run Away And Hide, who is by City Zip out of a Runaway Groom mare, made 3 starts at 2, all wins, and then retired with a very high speed figure. He shows 3 so so works prepping for this. Unless he takes unusual money, he is an unlikely first out winner. 

2 Arham by Union Rags, a fts for Pletcher, gets Saez and is the ML choice. He is a homebred for Shadwell that they have been very patient with, and now he surfaces here 2 weeks short of his 4th birthday. He shows fast works at 3f along the way, but they stopped and started with him a few times, which suggests soundness issues. Lets see how he looks on track. He is likely talented enough but racing isnt training.

3 Egyptologist yet another late starting fts is by Pioneerof The Nile out of a Lion Heart mare. He is a homebred trained Biancone. Based on his works, he looks ready to run on the lead right away. Must be seen, but he is the likely value in a race where there are a lot of unknowns. 

4 Catch On Emotional is a 6 time starter by Uncaptured, who throws runners who like to win, yet he comes off 4 straight 2nd place finishes. He has been the even money or less chalk in his last 2 and beaten in both. Last time, he caught a field of 3 others, one who was never within the rest of them, another who couldnt keep up to the top 2, and the one who beat him, a professional maiden. Which this one is slowly developing into. He is very fast though, and that might be enough with a group who have mostly never raced and have questions as to why its taken them so long to get to the races. This guy runs in a bit late in races, and also appears to not want to pass horses. Tough call as he has found a field he should handle. But that could have been said previously and he didnt. 

5 Mutakaamil a 4yo by Tapit out of an Unbridled Song mare, so naturally, he is a gray. He shows high speed at times, as his breeding would suggest, but then large gaps in his races. He is almost 5 now and makes his 7th lifetime start. His top speed figure would probably blow these away. He ships in from New York, where he last raced in the early summer, and finished 4th, in a photo for 2nd with 2 others, and cuts back a furlong here. He will have to be seen. If sound, he is viable to beat these in a race where you can say that about quite a few. He worked a very fast 3 furlongs 3 weeks ago, then went easy 2 more times. I suspect they are sending him today, but he will have company if they do. 

6 Tonalism a fts by Tonalist, for trainer Joseph, who has done well with Tonalist, is the 2nd ML choice. He has blasted out some very fast works getting ready. Just another who might be sent out and find company of others who have the same idea.

In case you wondered

Gasparilla Blast gets his name from his dam, Gasparilla Parade, who gets her name from her dam, Gasparilla, who was bred and owned by Stella Thayer, a Tampa native, who was President of Tampa Bay Downs, the filly was likely named after Gasparilla Island, an island near the mouth of Charlotte Harbor in southwest Florida. There is also a Gasparilla Pirate Festival, a large annual parade and other events held in Tampa, Florida, and a Gasparilla Bowl football game held in Tampa. 

Cool horse names

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