Friday, March 25, 2022

Mohawk Thoughts and Selections, March 25, 2022

2 FIT BITT shipped on from Rideau last time, sat the pocket to the classy dropping winner, and almost took him down. Another start like that, and possibly following the 9 horse all the way around looks like a winning recipe for a decent price, say 4-1. I will go with him.
9 ARRAKIS is entered right back after finding a tougher group on Monday night. He blasted off that night, took a seat to the eventual winner, but couldnt go with the contenders when the pace picked up in the lane. He only beat the two breakers, but he did what he could. This is a much better spot, but the post will sting him early if he wants the front again, which he likely does. Contender, but he will need a breather to close the deal.
4 EXEMPLAR raced Monday, and while he is way past his glory days, he still tries hard, and has some ability left. This is a good post for him, and if one of the likely leavers were to jump it off and he could secure an easy pocket trip, he is still capable of beating this weak bunch. Trevor Henry seems to get a bit more out of these old campaigners than other guys, so that is something to hang on to if he gets the right trip.
6 GOALTENDER will make a lateral move here after nabbing 3rd last time. Even though he was the fave that night, he was taken way off the pace, then moved into a completely non advancing flow, but when moved wide, he was even at best and barely got 3rd money. The 2nd place finisher who just missed taking down the winner of that race is back with him, and looks better overall.
3 VEYRON ships back from Flamboro where he wired them last time. He is capable enough with these types if he can get out near the top early and let another go, follow and then pounce if the contenders fail. Minor shot.
5 LOS BALLYKEELAMIGO adds lasix and picks up J Mac on his move back to the big track, after stopping badly at London last time. He is capable enough but his current form is a bit weak. I will go with others
7 ODDS ON AMETHYST on his best day would blitz these. His best days are far behind him and he shows little currently to suggest he is going to step up.
1 SONOFAMILLIONAIRE still has not shown enough in his 5 starts this year to suggest he can compete for the win.
8 DART GUY is completely non competitive at this stage and draws outside. Toss.
7 FROMAKINGTOAQUEEN was 2nd over last time, and closed well, but not enough to get on the ticket. She has had a few at this level already, retains Henry, and has won the class once. She has consistent good late speed and will be my top choice for a price. Id hope for 4-1 or slightly higher.
8 WILDCAT STAR started slow last time, moved up the inside when others moved into the outer flow, but then found a wall and had nowhere to go late, although she was very live. Post 8 means she will need racing luck here, but if she gets it, she is another who can score at a fair price.
4 NOTHINGCOMPARESTOU gets to drop to nw3 as she goes in for the tag. She faded badly last time, but her mother was known to do that and then come right back and race tough. She has good early speedand that can play in a race like this. I like her upset potential here. She paced a back half in 54.3 two back and picks up Sorrie here. That should play with this bunch is she brings something more like that.
6 BABY BONITA qualified well for Budd off a short break, but she has yet to show in her two starts that her Hawthorne form plays on this circuit. I would think she is aiming for the Grassroots program down the line, and this is a nice beginner start. She is possible, as Budd can never be underestimated, but others look sharper and more proven at this track.
5 SHARK HANOVER made the jump up from fts winner at nw1 to nw3 last time, went off the heavy chalk, got away 3rd, gapped down the backside to two big longshots, one she never passed, and then pulled first up but hung in the lane, barely holding 3rd. She is another who would benefit from going into a straight nw2, but she has to fight with the nw3 types here again. Pass this time for me.
2 COME ROLL WITH ME beat nw2 when she walked to the 3/4 and then just accelated away. The going is much tougher at this level and while she is probably good for a small cheque, I cant use her in with some of these.
3 THE IDEAL HUNTRESS wired nw1 off the shelf by coming a very fast back half as the chalk. She is a 3yo facing some older mares, and also has had to jump from nw1 to nw3, when she would look pretty good in with nw2. Pass for now unless she shows some huge leap in talent that suggests she can skip a level and still win.
1 DILLY TARYN has found the going tough as the competition is now deeper and faster. She is one start away from being able to drop to the bottom nw condition. I will wait for that, as she would look very good in with that bunch.
3 -- PACE, CLAIMING $17,500 FOR NW $75,000 LIFETIME.
4 PICTONIAN THUNDER raced Monday in nw2, but didnt do enough and now he dives to a cdn claimer. He also picks up J Mac and this is the kind Carm excels with. I will call him for the win as a decent price play.
3 SKYLAR dropped back into this condition last time, left out sharp, held the pocket, but then was locked in and didnt get any clearance until it was far too late. If he comes back and races like that, with any more racing luck, he should be right there with these. Big shot.
6 TAHUYA BREW has come along well since Barrington claimed him, only losing last time to a sharp horse who knows how to win, and winning 3 back. He has taken his overall time down a bit and got out a bit closer last time. He is a legit contender here, but he is no cinch either. He is a bit trip dependent.
1 FINKLE IS EINHORN seems to be in the hunt and will get it done one of these weeks. Decent shot.
2 DAVID LLOYD GEORGE is finding it tough to win lately, so I see him as a small cheque getter until he steps up and shows more in the lane.
5 DARK MOVES is 1 for 21 the last two years, with his only lifetime win a slow one at Clinton. He has had many chances lately here, and always looks good out there, but doesnt get there. I like others much better.
7 BLUE MONK blew up the tote board two back, then was well back and distanced, on the vet list last time. He qualified back okay, but didnt do much to do that either. This is a competitive field, so I will go to others. He is hard to like on his wild inconsistency.
6 KICKUPYAHEELS N is the classic Carm type who seems to be not finishing well for weeks, and suddenly she wakes up and steps up with the price rises. I will bank on that here and call her for the upset, despite the fact she has burned me a few times lately. She is willing enough and was good enough to take serious money in the Preferred a few back.
7 SHES NUN BETTOR N is as solid as they come and paced a back half in 53.4 last time just missing. Another with a decent chance and to use in the mre.
2 TUGGINGONCREDIT beat most of the contenders in here last time and she has been generally good for a while now. She can keep trying them with the claiming tag option, and might even get claimed here off her good form and money making ability. This is a trip race and she will need another one to beat them all. I say her luck runs out and someone else wins it, but Id still use her in the mre.
1 ADASHIOUS HANOVER has good early speed, and J Mac is likely to leave out, try a retake early down the backside and try to get her home. Using her early in the mile seems to leave her a shade empty deep in the lane. He buried her last time to try and negate that, but she had nowhere to go. She is the type that falls into those traps because she likes to lead, but needs a breather. I prefer others, but she isnt impossible if it all works out this time.
3 MAJESTIC VIRGIN dropped and popped last time, but these are tougher and she would need some luck and others to fail. Obviously, she is capable enough when she is very good, but I like others better. If you are willing to go 5 deep, she can be the 5th one in my view.
4 GOOD NIGHT MOON blasted home in 25.4 last time, and that got her 5th money. She relies on sitting back and coming late, which means she needs a live flow to tow her there, then go flat when she tries to pass them. I like others in here better but she is not out of it if things go her way.
8 BORN A DRAGON dropped last time, got to the top and got a slow half, then finished the job. She draws post 8 here, and moves up, into a very tough group. Pass.
5 AWESOME HILL adds lasix and exits the winter series action, getting thrown into the deep end with the salty, aged pacing mares who know how to win and go tough trips. I think she is currently overmatched by these until she proves otherwise.
5 CHIEFS DREAM GIRL drops in class with a license to take them all down. The names of all the winners in her last 6 starts would crush this bunch at 1-5. A repeat of her last mile would be good enough if she can do that.
6 PATRICIA MAE is a good leaver, drops slightly in class, and draws a much more favorable post. She is a contender off all that and McNair can get her out again where she doesnt have to go around others, which is what usually gets this kind beat in this class. Shot.
3 KAYS DELIGHT just missed last time and she gets in slightly easier this time. However, she is a very low percentage winner and is one of many. J Mac sticks here, so that is a positive. Shot.
4 CUSTARD LITE takes the big class drop here and on that alone is a contender. Types like her earn their money in this class and pay the training bill when they have to go above their heads like she has been for a few starts. I expect her to be in send mode and go as far as she can.
8 SUNNY SICILY seems to be a come late and get a piece type, as her win record the last two seasons suggests. More of the same here. She can get 4th money if things go right for her.
10 KAT draws the 10 hole here and is 2 for 40 the last two seasons. Thats enough for me to discount her.
1 HAPPY LOOKER takes a class drop here, but she seems to hang in the lane, and that is an issue that gets ones like this beat when three of them hit the wire together. Pass for now.
2 GOODNIGHT IRENE takes the class drop, but she rarely wins, which is how she gets in this class...on the nw last 10 starts option. That tells you her effort level most nights.
9 DARKRSHADEOFPALE N had a good season last year, but her form has fallen off a cliff this year, and now she changes barns, but draws the 9 hole. Lets see if she can be woken up for another try next week from a more favorable starting spot.
7 TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY is 2 for 38 the last two years, and gave it up on the lead last time. She does best with Trevor Henry in the past, and he takes the reins here. Still, even though this is the class where she excels, she has significant company on that train here to her inside. I like others this week.
5 BLACK BETTY looks like the type of mare Carm finds every now and then. Just coming into their own at 4 or 5, maturing and getting better, then he gradually builds them up and they become Preferred mares. She won right off the claim for him, rising in class and beating some nice mares, some who could beat many of these. J Mac sticks and she is the logical one to play if you are not sold on the 2 horse, which Im not.
2 SNOW SHARK dropped to this class last time, but post 10 meant she had to gun out for the lead, held that all the way but weakened late. With a better post here, she is obviously more viable, but no cinch. Others have good form as well. One of a few to use.
7 LADY ROCKNROLLA A has been flat in the lane lately, and overall as well, but she can pop off anytime and be dangerous with this type. Id use her in mre on that chance. She has good early speed and that can get her Snow Sharks pocket. If she can do that, she would be dangerous with a brave trip.
3 SUNDAY AFTERNOON jumped it off early last time in the Preferred, which she had no shot anyway. She drops back down to the class she was competitive in before that, but she wasnt winning it either. She is possible, but she tends to find ways to lose races like this.
6 MY MOTHER PEARL moves up in class where she has been on the edges of the winner. I like others, although if you are going 5 deep, she is the next one Id take.
4 SPORTY TORI rises up to this class without winning, and she has been a low percentage winner for a while now anyway. This is a mixed bunch, she is not without some chance, but others look better unless she flukes off the perfect trip and finds a seam late.
9 TWIN B TIPSTER drew well last time but didnt do enough to hit the ticket, and now she draws poorly again. I cant see her beating the top 3 contenders here.
1 BEST HONEY HANOVER has been away very slowly in two tries since being claimed and made close with the pack type of recoveries, which werent good enough for a cheque either time. She has to rise in class here, and thats enough for me to shop elsewhere looking for contenders.
8 MAJOR LEAGUE N won at the bottom, but she doesnt appear good enough to go with this type anymore, especially when she is the type that insists on leading and going too fast early. One to wait on when some money drops off and she can find softer types with a better post.
7 -- PACE, CLAIMING HANDICAP $22,000 TO $30,000.
4 ROYAL RENEGADE doesnt win often lately, and not in 11 starts this year, but he takes a slightly lower tag this time, and that gets him the 4 hole. With his sharp leaving ability, that makes him a sneaky good chance to get a soft trip to the lane. These types, a different one seems to pop up for a couple of weeks and become the better one. Maybe its his turn.
3 LAST MACH was claimed by Carm last time and now adds lasix. Lets see what he can do. He will need 2 seconds or more improvement to beat all of these.
5 BELIEVE IN BRIAN was claimed 2 back by Fellows, moved up to this level and was a close 3rd at the wire. He seems to need a soft, inside trip to beat this kind. That is hard to rely on, but not impossible with all the action we normally see when these types battle it out week to week.
1 MAYHEM LIKE ME won off the claim for Puddy, a reclaim right back, but to keep him now he has to move up to face much tougher. He will have to prove he can go with these. Im on the fence as his big late move isnt as potent when he is coming to this type.
6 HERESTHATMANAGAIN has been 1st or 2nd in his last 5 starts, and won this class last week with J Mac driving. He was claimed then, and now gets Brett McDonald at the controls. I dont like the trainer change and the driver change, and every little thing counts at this level. I will go to others as his price is likely to be short here.
10 QUAN BLUE CHIP just missed last week, but takes the highest tag here and that gets him post 10. That means he spots them an extra 2 or 3 lengths on top of what he has before, and his finish means he doesnt get as close as he did last time. Pass.
8 ROCK N ZEUS will drop into a claimer here, but drew poorly, outside a bunch of hard leavers, so he would have to take the overland route on the last turn. He just looks a few steps short of the best ones here at this point. He is a 6yo with 4 life wins and that says something about his ability to finish with better horses.
7 MACH IMPACT stopped badly last time, and that has been a trend lately. His last 5 are all bad, and now he goes back on lasix. I cant see him until he shows some positive finish. There are no freebies in this class, and perhaps he races okay this time and then bottoms out in the nw3000l5 next week.
2 SUNNY BO faded in the lane last time, badly. The 2nd race in a row he has done that. He was super sharp before that, but it seems he is a bit worn out now. He was a very low percentage winner for the longest time, then found life. Now, that life seems to have left him. Pass until he shows me a turnaround on that form. Puddy didnt go back in and take this one. That says something about what he thought he had left currently.
9 SEA LAIRD tried to come late last time, as usual, but first off the claim for the hot trainer of the month, he couldnt get there. He is another that was sharp a few weeks ago, but has tailed off. Post 9 here, I cant see him getting it done.
8 -- PACE CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,000 TO $18,000.
4 NO TIME AT ALL was claimed 2 back by the trainer owner. The 4th claim on the page for this one. He raced well, and got up for 3rd money. He is very consistent and possible with this group if he gets the right trip. He can leave enough and close well enough if things go his way.
5 JAYDENS PLACE was claimed 2 back, wins his share and was 2nd last time to a current bearcat. He is capable of starting better and that would be advisable here to avoid a parked out journey. He is possible but its a trip race and if he doesnt get a good one, he is beatable.
3 ART OF FIRE has started slowly in his last 3, but in the past has shown he can blast off if you want him to. He doesnt seem to finish well if you do that, but perhaps somewhere in the middle, like holding your position without blasting off and then using his one run move could get it done. Its a longshot, but this race looks ripe for one. J Mac sticks with Carms one from the rail, and so McNair gets the call,and he is the one who blasted off with him before.
7 CENTURY GIGALO tried better 3 times in a row after winning this class, but he could only manage small shares. So, he drops back in here, likely to get claimed, but he won off an easy trip and if he tries to leave here, he will pay a price. If he backs off and lets them battle, he has a shot. Tough to know what Sorrie will do but he is a savvy guy, so Id use him in mre as if it sets up for him, he is capable of taking them all down.
6 BETTOR NOTBITTER A was claimed 2 back by the trainer owner with the big percentage average, but faded badly, and now adds lasix. He is another who has been popular, claimed 4 times on the page. This will be his first decent post in a while, so he is another likely blasting off, and he could get the worst of that by the time he makes the top, if he does. I dont think the race sets up good for him and his form isnt good right now anyway. I like others.
2 SAUBLE PLAY was a bad actor going to the gate last time and jumped it off. He then made a huge recovery to get back in the race and didnt just tail off, but had too much to do. If he can behave this time he is possible with this group.
1 MISSION THREE didnt make the final of the claiming series, as he needed 2nd last time and didnt get there. He has 6 3rds and nowins out of 10 starts and has had a lot of legit chances to win races he loses. Carm or no Carm, not this one for me.
4 VILLAGE JADE has run into some tough customers recently, and cant seem to get by the best of them. One of them returns here, but eventually her turn will come. With a good post like this, I would think Fillion knows the best place to be is on the front, let one of the faves go, and try a second move deep in the lane. She can win this at a price if that happens.
2 EMMY LOU HAYES returns to this class, where she has been solid for weeks, and gets to stay at this level due to the optional claiming tag. She fits with these and has a shot if things go her way.
3 CRUSHED PEARL missed last week, but has been a solid 4 for 4 since starting her career late. She won with ease last time, with minimal reminders midlane, but now she will have to go a second or two faster, which she has not done recently. We will see what she is made of when she doesnt have the big edge she did on the previous foes.
7 DAZZLIN ROSIE came flying out of the pack late last time and was by them all just past the wire. The driver change certainly made some difference. She will get a lot more tote play this time, and there are still some tough customers in here to take down. Id use her in the multis, but she will have to show she can move early and still finish like that.
6 EASYRUNNER HANOVER went even, and okay in her first try at this track for the new trainer. She can step up and do better, so be mindful of that, but she will have to. Im inclined to wait one more and see how she responds to a tough trip.
1 AINT SHE PERFECT moves up a class after a solid win at nw3, and now meets up again with Crushed Pearl, who she could not handle to that point, and others who are of her class and experience. This is a deep field. I will wait to see how she does but she might need a few to get up to speed.
8 PAULAS BET HANOVER has made a good buck for her connections so far, but only won 3 times. She appears to be the type that hunts the contenders, but wont pass them. Post 8 only makes that tougher here. Pass on her this time.
5 BOTTOMOFTHENINTH seems to have hit a speed and class wall lately, and these are still tough foes for her to overcome. Until she shows she has more, I will assume she doesnt.
9 BROKEN has been on the edges or struggling and now moves up a level and takes the outside post. I cant see her being good enough to turn that around.
1 BLUEWATER BEACH was claimed back by Riley and he puts her in a protected spot rather than take a likely easy purse and lose her again. She will have to beat a proven stakes winner who won her first start at this track, but otherwise, these arent much tougher than she has been blowing away.
8 EXOTIC DRAGON shipped from out west off a month off last time, as her stakes career is over there. She simply used her class to mow them down easily, and now faces a similar bunch with one addition who is on a hot streak. She has also been known to throw in a clunker if you run at her. If someone does and she is put on the front this time, she is beatable. Based on the post, I would think Cullen takes the off the pace approach again.She will be tough if that happens.
5 SO FRISKY shipped in from the Bs last time, cut the mile, and gave it up to the likely favorite in here. She has good tactical leaving speed, but she would do well to let someone else cut it here, and if she does, she can turn the tables at a price.
6 SHEMARS LADY HAVOC raced a rock solid 2nd to the 8 horse last time, and loses Jody to the 7 here, but picks up McClure. If there is a battle in front of her, she is capable of picking them all off, but more likely, she comes late and is mid ticket.
3 SMOKE N REACTOR N gets a small amount of class relief on her return here, a much better post than her last at this track, and J Mac. All of that means she has a fair shot if the two favorites dont perform to the standard they have lately, which happens.
4 BIG DIAMOND raced okay last time in this condition and finished with broken equipment. Most of the ones in front of her that night are back, so she will have to step up.
7 CENTURY GEORGIA did well for Montini off the claim and was 2nd in the final, although no match for the winner and it was a tiny field. She was also running in horrible in the lane, and this is a much deeper and talented field. I cant see her being dangerous with this bunch.
2 CATCH AN ACE ships in from the B tracks, where she just hasnt been doing enough to be dangerous, and some of these are better than those. Sorrie is good with longshots like this, but its hard to like her on current form against a couple of very tough cookies.
9 ESCAPE THE HOUSE a private purchase, with terrible form, shipping in from Northfield, off 7 seven weeks and draws the 9 hole. Toss for tonight and lets see if she can show something to go on for next time.