Monday, November 28, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 28, 2016


1 Shes a Maniac was not nearly as good last week as she was the week before. Being a cheap claimer who runs in bad on the turns, that is to be expected. That doesn't mean she can't turn it right back around. She had the rail last week, and does so again. She was right up in the pocket, following the winner with that one being tortured by the 10 horse, but that did not help her cause when there was room to go forward. I have to see her. I'm inclined to go price shopping elsewhere. The shelf life on one of Gilmours is usually short, and she is already well past that considering how good she was for a few weeks up to last week, where she wasn't.

2 Nine Days is the very durable type. She was brought to this track last winter as well when her form was good and was able to pick up small slices in short fields. She moves up for this go around, and she just has never showed the overall speed needed to compete at this track. Her last quarters are not good enough.

3 Gia Diamond was her usual self last time, rolling on the last turn like she was large, then hanging badly before the tote board like she was at the wrong track and in a class above where she can do. No thanks, even if she parades like a bearcat.

4 Keystone Samurai picks up lasix for the first time, a strange thing to try with a mare her age.
She tried these 2 back but was not competitive, although she can keep up with the pack and pace in 55. She is almost a month off now. Her bad luck that KD doesn't go year round like they used to. She could make a good buck showing up every week there.

5 Fire Watch was saved by Cullen last week in a clever steer and came up the rail to get 4th money. I could see where she might be one of the ones in here that doesn't look like much but gets it done as others who are more logical falter. I see her as a bit player type overall, but tonight she might be value. Depends on what type of price I see on the board. I'd be looking for 8-1.

6 Tigra Seelster is a proven winner at this track for Fellows when she is in good form and draws a favorable post, as she does tonight. She shows up after wiring a decent bunch at Flamboro in fast time. You can make a decent case for her tonight, and as she has serious lameness issues, she will have to be seen. If she passes that test in my view, she is likely to be the one I go to.

7 T R Lexus Cam has been raced over her head at the B tracks with predictable results. That appears to have been to protect from losing her when she was sharp and winning at a level just below this at Flamboro. She wins a lot of races, but does that at the B tracks, because generally her final quarters arent good enough to go with contenders at this track.

8 Lady Jen had every chance and break to win last week, but she did not. The leader was ripe for the taking and Phil sent her after that one, 3 wide, plugs pulled and she should have looped her and paced away. They walked home, but she walked slower. This is a fairly weak bunch, and she is likely to take heavy money, could be the fave or close to it. I'm not impressed and I'm likely to leave her off my final ticket and roll the dice with some price value on others who aren't real fancy either but will bring me a better windfall if the step up.

9 Moremunkybusiness is 3 for 74 and draws the 9 hole here as she ships back in with a price tag this time. Her 51.3 record jumps out at you when you look this bunch over, but that was with a different trainer when she was at the top of her game career wise. That was then. This trainer is 4 for 70 on the year, mostly racing at the B tracks, where he should do better if he has stock like this to play with.

10 Twin B Inspiring takes a big class drop to meet these, and gets the 10 hole for taking the high tag. Plante owns this one, but he cant be bothered showing up tonight. I doubt Zeron blasts her out of there like he would have. I'd give her a big shot if she takes the lower tag next week and draws in the middle of the car. She is very brave if she gets control. She is very pea hearted if she doesn't.


1 Vital Sign draws the rail for the 2nd consecutive start. He stayed in the entire way last time, and traveled sounder than the time before. He was behind one who wasn't doing enough, and appeared trapped. But when free, he was outpaced in the 2nd tier by many who would not be competitive with most of these. He isn't impossible if he turns it around, which he has done in the past with little to no warning. I have to see him parade. If he were to look live, or smooth, or both, I could be persuaded to take a price and shot with him. He'd certainly have to be at least 10-1 to make me take cash out of my pocket.

2 Lisvinnie  took a different approach last week, as he laid completely off a hot pace, moved late, picked up live cover and simply tipped when needed on that and sailed by all of them, with the only challengers never gaining on him. If..and this is a big if with his history, he holds his soundness, which he appears to be doing, even looking sounder than when he was winning a notch higher in the summer, he would have a big edge on these. Phil takes Montini's on the class rise, so JJ gets the call here. No problem for me on that 1 for 1 trade.

3 Never Been Told went to the top last week and was never in danger, winning by as much as he needed to and well in hand. He moves up again to face tougher, and Phil takes him over another he has won with. That is curious. This will be the stiffer test. Last week, he had nothing he couldn't handle. He is the likely favorite or close to it.

4 Waltzking Hanover was put on a mission by Cullen last time, but he gave it up pretty easily when the flow came to him. He eeked out 5th, but he didn't have many live ones behind him, nor did he keep up with the ones going by him either, none of whom are known bearcats relative to this class other than the winner, who he meets again.

5 Machapelo didn't have much pace last week, was gapping and well beaten. He is hard to back based on what you see on the page, and physically, his fitness to compete is also in question.

6 Chosen Hombre loses Fillion as he is away. Gains Trevor. Even trade for this type. He seemed to get caught in near the back field when the ones that beat him moved out, but even still, he paced up for 4th, no danger to the top 3, 2 of whom he meets again. He was also bearing out bad at the wire. He isn't impossible if Henry can get him to leave a bit better. That hasn't been his history though. Looks like a bit player to me.

7 New York Nightmare pulled 1st up last week and got the lick and slash treatment when he gave his usual half try when pulled. With some, that works. As long as you whack him, he will go. Its a legit way to drive him, and they all do. He did go forward, and paced on to the wire, but was 2nd best to the winner, who he meets again. He is possible if that one isn't as good as he was last week.


1 Warrawee Proton was good enough to just grind out there gradually and pass the leader on his overall speed edge when it mattered. Clearly Fillion drove him with that in mind. The only way he was losing that race is if he beat himself, which he is prone to do when he isn't a winning machine, which he currently is and he has been a few times this year. Moreau rented him for one start, got the win, and returned him to the pack of willing buyers, of which Coulter won the 6 way shake. Tonight he is back in for the price, and will have many to try and bag him again. He has been through Moreau and Fine, and others, and that is an issue for me. His penchant for making breaks is another, the rail is another, and a new driver another, although I like Scott Coulter and he is a solid driver who I would have no trouble backing on any horse. He'd have to be a very short price here, and I will take my chances against him and not only not touch him for the win, but leave him off any pick 5 tickets I play, if I decide to play one. He looks ripe to go down.

2 Summajestic fired out for the lead at Flamboro last time at 3-5 and cut it to the half. He didn't look good the entire time he was on the front, very sore and wonky behind. Like most of his breed, when that happens, he shifts to the front to compensate, and gets crossed up, and will take a bad step and jump it off, which he did. He did the same exact thing at 1-9 three back, but lasted to the last turn that night, although he looked exactly the same the entire way that night as he did last time. I don't see how he gets around with these when there is any pressure put on him.

3 Northern City Girl got a new driver last time and ran. She was clearly lame the entire way and could not be held together, even though she was under no pressure, gapping the entire way, and could have just followed along the rest of the way well back and stayed at it. With the regular pilot back on for the qualifier, she got around clean and has since been moved to Weller, who jams her right in the bottom claimer. She will have to be seen. I can't touch her if she shows any of that lameness behind. I don't suspect Weller can do anything about that, and she could easily take off running when the gate speeds away.

4 See R Chin Win was nowhere near the top 4 last time when they hit the wire, and those weren't an impressive bunch, relative to a few others in here. She was 50-1 and went around along the rail, and had no zip at all, outstaggering the backfield to hold 5th money. I can't back her the way she races.

5 Girl Drama had the winners live cover last time, but couldn't stick with him, nor pass the winded leader. Cullen took her, and he will try to do what others haven't been able to.....make her go when she isn't in the barn of Dagfin. Her slow starts dig holes for her as a rule, and maybe Cullen tries to fire her out of there. She likely runs in that scenario, but you never know. I will go elsewhere looking for an upset.

6 Easy Virtue ran on her own last time going towards the first turn and looked horrid and lame. Cannot go near this one at all.

7 Cracker Zack wired a similar bunch 2 back and Ryan took him, stepped him up, where he wouldn't do, so he is putting him right back in for that tag and draws a decent post to send him right out, assuming he makes the gate and is trotting. Big if factor for him. If he does, he could wire this bunch and not have to work too hard to do it. He has to be seen. He is very variable. No Mystery Bet's or Covert Operative's in this race.

8 Blush and Crush backed away off a soft trip last time, and gets a tougher post here. She has shown in the past she will step up when you least expect it, and Allard is not above injecting every joint and tuning her up. I could make a case that she is the longshot you try in this race if you don't want to rely on the two faves or the 10 horse. I want to see how she parades. She is viable if I like what I see. Its a risky play with her type.

9 Demand an Answer tried to wire them from a good post last time, and took them all the way, but for the chalk who mowed him down easily when he wanted to step up the pressure. From a post like this he was no factor. I expect him to be some sort of impact player on whatever goes on here, but I cant see him getting home first with the post disadvantage he has and his low win percentage overall.

10 Alacrity trotted a decent mile on a cold and windy night when most of the last quarters were slow and the front was where you wanted to be. To his credit, he ground the leader into submission, mostly on talent. He was okay enough, but he now has to take on the rail horse and do it from the 10 hole. He still looks viable, but I'd think there is one in this race who will make him pay for the hole he has to start from. He has a shot if the likely suspects blow up, which seems a decent probability.


1 Cs Eye Is another of Weller's who will race on very short rest, as that is something he is doing with many of them, mostly the cheaper ones. It worked out on Saturday with Dreamy Fella. I generally dont like that type of angle, but its worked for him. He was double entered before he raced on Thursday. I suppose Weller thought he might win that and wanted to double dip. It didn't work out that way, as having the rail, he left hard, but had to let one go, then another went for the lead and Henry is smart enough to know you don't pull first up with this one. He stayed in, and had to wait a long time to get back out around the leader who was all done on the turn. He did go forward and pace with the pack. Another rail start, but he has a shot if a better trip works out. He didn't look like that race took much out of him. These are very soft and the type he might try a retake down the backside and deploy kamikaze tactics as he has before. Not sure he can last with a couple of these, but its possible. Weller appears to have the new shipment of high octane in the tack trunk, based on what we saw Saturday night.

2 Edward Teach picks up another new driver, his 7th in 7 starts. He is pretty easy to drive, so that is no worry. I like his form and his style, although he does seem a shade short in the last bit of the mile every time. That is not a big deal in with this bunch. This will be his 3rd start for Puddy. He was piked by Henry in start 1, parked the mile and kept at it a very long way. Last time, he left out but stayed in, moved mid race and paced home evenly, up for 3rd under heavy urging. He shows signs of popping and the post is favorable. Shot for a price.

3 Mach It Big had a soft rail trip last time, but showed little and did nothing in the lane but tag along. He is a slow leaver these days and that goes against the bias of this track. Looks like a bit player but he pops every now and then when he remembers what he once was.  

4 They Call Me Gordy has a new trainer off the layoff and this is his 3rd start back for him. He is ofer on the year and has one effective style, which is one that favors him on this track. He can leave and follow if he finds a live friend to block the wind for him. He was given that trip last time, but the one he was following is a known stopper who was a big longshot, so he was forced to pop pocket, made the lead, but the fractions were hot and he was immediately attacked by Aslan, who ground him down and then he packed it in in the lane. I can give him a pass on that because it was only his 2nd off the layoff and he didn't get the trip he likes, and needs. He has a shot to make the ticket if he gets more favorable terms. He doesn't win much, he is hard to take on top. Stranger things have happened in this class though. He has made the ticket in almost half his starts, most of those at this track. 

5 Needlecrest gets the class relief he needs. He had every chance to get a cheque last week, but in spite of two of them blowing up and another blowing his load to the half, he couldn't pick up money off a soft following trip. I'm not sold this is enough relief for him as is. I will likely go to others.

6 Prince Clyde takes the big class drop, which has worked for him before and is something he relies on at this stage in his career to earn his connections a steady buck. He grinds out 50k a year or so doing that. The names of those who have beaten him lately, Prescotts Hope, Erle Dale, Easy Lover Hanover, Vegas Rocks, would all daylight this bunch if they would happen to be allowed to race in this class. He didn't do much last week, but he was also off a month and had been sick. I can give him a pass for that. Its hard to know if he was racing bad, or was just so far over his head he had no shot. That is the rub when one like this hits this class with the variables he brings. He was clearly going all he could go last time and was gapping badly in the lane. I will likely go away from him if he takes favorite money, which he could. He is the 2-1 ML choice. He has spotty form.

7 Levy Taylore is one of those dangerous shippers that you see on every card who you must look over carefully wherever he raced. Luckily, in these times, that is just a race replay click away. His last was his first start in two months, and he gapped out most of the way from a 2 hole start, and had little to no pace in the lane with a clear path to go forward. I will have to watch him once to see if he was just short last week. He doesn't look like a dangerous shipper to me.

8 Every Day looks like a borderline 8 claimer to me. He was one of many most times in the Maritimes, and with post 8 tonight added to the mix, I don't view him as legit against these. He didn't get a cheque in this class last week when he had every chance to do so. I will pass on him. Might be a good 8 throughout the winter if Cullen goes that route or maybe he is aiming him at the nw class at the B tracks. That might work for him if he draws inside there.

9 Hail the Taxi gets post 9 off a mini layoff. He is well known to find ways to lose, even when he looks viable and a contender. Tonight, he looks like neither.

10 Resistance Futile comes off more than a year off, and he has had gaps like that before, as he has obvious issues if you take note of his on track appearance over the years. He gets the trainers son for the return, with I'm sure orders to go easy on him from this post. You dont wait a year on a nice horse like this to gut him from this post first start back. He certainly can take them next time though if he shows he is sound and fit, and draws 8 hole or inside that. Talent has never been in question with this one.


1 Stan the Man has won 3 of his last 4, the last one at this class when he wired them on a night when that was a pretty good tactic. The cheap 2nd quarter is very much this horses best friend, as it is with most of this kind of mid level horse. When he was pushed harder in the one he lost, he gave it up late. Post 1 probably negates a shot at the top and control this time. He has had a nice run bagging 25k in his last 5 starts, starting out at the bottom class and landing in this one. He is a half brother to a whack of really good ones, and that shows itself when he gets the right variables to lean on that. He is no champion, like those ones, but he has ability. I likely go to others, but he isn't impossible and might be one to add to the pick 4.

2 Its Huw You Know kept it together and was in the mix last time. He seems to be able to do that if he behaves. He doesn't win much, but he hangs around and is the type to win 3 or 4 a year if he gets 30 starts at your track. He is a big rangy type with a nice stride and a willing attitude.

3 Mystery Bet turned the handicappers on their heads last time by blasting out and going down the road, a never in danger eased up winner. First time any of us have seen him try that style. He has to move up here, but he is capable of that if he holds the form and maybe deploys the forward move off the gate. He has never been known as consistent. I will have to see how he looks parading. He tips his hand with how sound he is...or isn't. 

 4 Olympic Son doubled up last time, and as one who can win the Preferred when he is right, this class is his for the taking again. He was driven perfectly last week, and he just sat outside the leader who he had to know would give it up in the lane and took his time, while the only legit threat was mired in traffic and couldn't reach him. He has become much more tactical and less of a speed demon. That works to his favor now as he was never much the best to deploy that at the high end of the class scale.

5 Exemplar has missed almost 4 weeks now. No Trevor or Fillion available. so Per will handle him. Of course he knows him. Not sure what to expect. Have to see him. I'm inclined to toss him for tonight.

6 Wild and Crazy Guy gets some class relief after he tackled the best on the circuit last time and was all done at the 3/4 pole. He was bearing in bad coming out of the turn, and I find when he gets that way, he will tail off fast class wise, even on a drop. I backed him last week because he had a troubled trip the time before, but I will avoid him now. He will come back around. He always does. I will monitor his on track appearance for signs I should hop back about the bus.

7 P L Hercules wired them at the bottom, and now steps back up two levels. He has not shown he can handle that and isn't likely to have complete control this time. I don't think he is viable tonight considering the competition.

8 Cash for Gold was away poorly last week then on terrible cover which cost him a few lengths, which might have cost him the win. In any event, he was live when it mattered. I could see him turning the tables on that one tonight for a decent price. He remains at the mercy of the pace and traffic flow. That is the risk you accept when you play him.

9 Charlie Is a Joker draws poorly again and is likely to start slowly again. This doesn't look like a good spot for him. He looks like one who will be dropping a line in a couple of starts and taking a shot at the bottom end ones. I will watch him to see what his status is heading into that if it plays out that way.

10 Catch the Dream was not traveling well again last time and Phil babied him away this time, sitting last and coming late to pick up a small cheque. I have trouble going near him now until I see more confidence in his trotting steadiness from the driver. I will watch for that as he has to probably duck from the 10 hole.

Down to a 6 horse field with the scratch. That can favor two who like the top but have to be rated for any shot to outpace the backfield in the lane. If he somehow works out a 2 hole trip in this short field, he has a shot to save his one explosive move for the end. Contenders. Which of those two do you choose?

1 York Seelster had post 9 last week off a layoff, and had to take back. Not his preferred style. He did pace up for 4th, and J Mac sticks with him over Des's horse.

2 Jenkins Creek has looked lame but game for weeks, but last week he just couldn't withstand the pain and blew up when he looked to have a shot to take it all. I think this level stings him and I will likely have to pass on him. We shall see what he is like when he moves back down. He is not wearing well and the sum of all the hard miles are catching up with him.

4 A Boy Named Suuzz blasted out and paid the price for that last time late. He needs the lead, so it was worth taking a shot. From this post, with the nature of the form and soundness of many of these, if the price were right, I'd be all over him. I'd be looking for something in the 10-1 range. That seems possible with the outside ones likely to take serious money and Carmen's one drawing inside this week off a decent effort.

5 Panedictine had every possible variable go his way last time and he took advantage to blow up the tote board. I wouldn't expect that to repeat itself. He is a contender, but low percentage winner at this level.

6 Lonewolf Currier has given every indication he simply does not want to race anymore. He balks at coming onto the track. At times he tries to turn back and go to the paddock. Last time, He wouldn't turn to the gate, and when he was forced to, he did spinarounds trying to avoid it. When pushed, he tried to kick JJ out of the bike, then needed the outrider to get off her horse to lead him, and still wasn't very interested. He was made to race, and decided that the pain was too much on the last turn, getting very steppy and rocky before he completely blew up. He was taken from that contest. He will have to be seen. Unless I see an attitude adjustment, which is possible but unlikely, I can take a total pass on him and let him beat me if I'm wrong. He was once a high end horse. That was then. He has little upside left.

7 Par Intended isnt sound. but as mentioned previously, its who he is. He had the lead last time, but he was held up on the turn getting there and picked off by another. A solid effort, which is pretty much what you get from him every time. 


Mixed bag here. Short to the point comments. Not inclined to even play this race unless something of value jumps off the screen for me in the post parade. I find I have trouble cashing these bottom claimers at this track.

1 Drake class drop, get the rail, likes to follow, possible if the flow goes his way. Consistent.

2 Intended Style lower tag, better post, yo yo form of late, has to be seen on the track to rate who he is tonight. Likely to take money on the variables.

4 Light Foot Rd has been horrible for Fuller, but was slightly better with a better post. I'm inclined to go to others if I play at all.

5 Raging Fingers is one Cullen wants to keep. He knows he is solid to make money. But, he has to be tagged to do so. Either way, claim in or not tonight, he is sending him. For better or worse.

6 Cundalini was one of many that was outpaced by the winner last week, and he even lost his on the ticket position.

7 Stimulus Spending lost JJ to a scratched horse. I find it hard to play this one with how he appears on the track most times. His slow starts dig him holes he doesn't dig out of pretty much every time.

8 Gunpowder takes the higher tag and gets the 8 hole for that. Can't see it.

9 Give Em Heck drops down but takes the high tag and gets a bad post for the style he likes. Hard to like when he goes against his own bias.

10 Velocity Headlight has missed 6 weeks and had horrid form. Takes the 10 hole. What can you say when you see that?


1 Hilarious Hero had every chance last time to break the goose egg. Didn't. Starting from the rail digs him a big hole unless a whole bunch run and scatter and he just floats out by attrition.

2 J N Ryder is what he is. We all know what that is. Not the winner.

3 Grego I dont see anything to suggest the post improvement will matter. He will have to prove me wrong. He doesn't show speed.

4 Pick Up the Tab debuts for Carmen, off very suspicious lines, from a trainer who is very good with trotters. Obviously, I have to see him parade, and hopefully see him trot fast for a piece in that parade. He leads me to think this race is not very playable because he can go either way. Curious to see what odds he brings.

5 Absolut Seelster beat these from the 10 hole last time and looks to double up from the middle of the car. I don't know if I want 4-5 on him, nor risk a single on him, although he looks like value for the price and a decent single based on the competition and his starting slot. Tough race to play when you have to latch onto these types.

6 Zorgwijk Parkhill I see nothing to suggest he has any shot whatsoever.

7 The Power of Many was okay last time. He meets that winner here again, and his goose egg is intact and hard to overlook. I suppose he could be the one if the 5 blows up early.

8 Pampered in Pink have not liked what I've seen from her overall. I think she won when she could, but she has issues. I will watch to see if they resolve. Until then, she is a poor play to go near.

10 Profound Patience is really up against it on form and post. Not impossible but hard to like unless she completely reverses her bad form to the good form she had earlier in the year. That is always possible.


1 Youre Majestic loses JJ to the newcomer. She trotted a strong mile to be 3rd in her first try with these. She has worked her way up over the summer and late fall, and seems legit with these. However, she is a mare facing tough males, and tonight, she will draw the rail. I'd have to think this isn't the best spot for her to take them down, if she is capable of that. The jury is out on that for now, and Mario is a step down from JJ percentage wise. I will likely watch her. She seems as good now as she has ever been. On her best day, from the right trip, she probably could win tonight. Its unlikely it plays out that way.

2 Fearless Man got the tightener he needed last time, and might have even made the ticket if he got out of a tough spot on the last turn. When he shook loose, the two outside him were fully rolling and had more momentum than him. He went with them, but couldn't quite go by them. Zeron, realizing that, eased up on him and took 5th money. The goal was to get him ready for a better effort. He has handled these before when he is rested then tuned up. One more? I don't know. I think he is ready to go tonight. I have to see him parade and see what kind of price he will bring. There is a lot of good form in this field.

3 Windsun Revenge had every chance to make good on the chalk players confidence in him that he would duplicate what he has done lately, and more specifically what he did the time before in the BC final. He gave it a good try, but after leaving a bit, and then backstretch brushing to the top for control, he didn't have much gusto when P Mac asked him to pick it up as he saw the winner coming to him, and blowing by him. I can give him a pass on that race, for the reasons I mentioned last week when I listed him as a play against. I will have to see what he looks like parading this week. I'm on the fence and price will determine play for me. I don't see him as short price material, but of course, he has a shot based on how he has raced in the fall.

4 Rubber Duck got a slick steer last time, as he was up against it from a rail start. He let the field go, and was angled out when Trevor pulled and followed his cover right to the lane, but couldn't stick with him and also was not able to fend off another for 3rd. Overall, it was a good effort. He still seems to need to adapt to these, but he is doing that, in stages. He has a shot from this post.

5 Abc Muscles Boy ships in for Allard of a mid level win at Pocono. Allard has not been lighting it up since the meet started. JJ picks this one, for whatever reason. He looks overmatched on paper against these. I have to see him. I dont really know him at all. Allard's charges can be very variable and the range of what you see is wide.

6 Intimidate loses Fillion as he is away. This one had every chance last time, but while he left out early then yielded and got a breather, when he pulled around a gapper, he went backwards himself. At this point in his career, he shows up one week and looks like his old self, then comes right back and looks like an old warrior who has the scars of war on his old tired body. He looks in tough tonight with most of the same ones, and one who will be tighter and likely blasting to gain a position he didn't have to fight him for last week. Pass on him this time.

7 Il Sogno Dream used his class edge to mow down the chalky leader and pull away from anything else that was behind him when he came to him. He is the type that can get on a roll. I want to see how he looks on the track and what type of price he is going to bring. He doesn't always show up. He can tip that in how he travels in the post parade. I will make that call when I see how he looks.

I'd for sure need 5 for the late pick 4 here. Any of those could be the one if things go their way. Not a race I'd short in that play.

1 Shooter Inthecreek new horse for Moreau that comes in from Indiana off a fast win on a very fast track against bottom end conditioned claimers. Those are always hard to rate when you don't know how they will adapt. Some become Diggin In, others end up at Flamboro in the same conditioned claimers they came from in the States. He has to be seen on the track.

2 Awesomeness gets new conections and a new driver. He is likely to take monster chalk money. I'm not certain that is a value play here. He has beat horses with issues or weak talent to this stage. I think he will be a nice horse into next year, but he is still very much a young green colt and we know how Randy drives those at this stage of their development.

3 Give Em Back ships in from London with just 2 lifetime wins as he is almost a 5yo. Both of those wins came at Sarnia, which has soft and short fields for the locals to save them from having to ship and face tough competition. I don't like his form, but I will look him over when he parades. I've never seen him before.

4 Deadly Action is the wildcard in this bunch. Randy didn't take him over the 2 horse, and he gets Mario. He tried the Metro and was 2nd in the Dream Maker final, after winning a leg. He has a lame pedigree and I will have to see how he is holding up with that in mind. He comes off a nice break, but must not be thought of highly if they aren't saving him for the big money next year. He had a nice one behind him in the qualifier. That is to his credit, but not significant enough without seeing what he looks like tonight first. He is obviously possible if he is right. He has some aged ones to tackle here. That is always a negative. Must be a late closer he is aiming for.

5 Whatashowinontario bombed out for Carmen and now comes back for Snowden. The horse has upside when he is good. He isn't usually very good, but has good nights when he puts it together. The 3 he was behind in his qualifier do not inspire confidence when he led them into the stretch off a soft half. I can't back him tonight.

6 Home James needed every break last week to save 3rd. That does not inspire me to go back to him, as I did last week. He looks like one who is headed for a conditioned claimer.

7 Frontier Seelster took some free money last time at Flamboro. Why not if they are going to let you have it. He has a world of talent, but could not be greener than he has appeared to be on the track to this point. He paced a back half in 54.1 on October 24th and was almost dangerous in tight with horses. That is the kind of horsepower under the hood. As long as the tires stay on the road and the brakes work when they are needed. He has to be watched.

8 Senior K Had tough luck in both the Autumn final and 2nd leg. Under the right circumstances, he can be a value play here. Its a real mixed bag of possible ones, and he is just another of those.

9 Rockin Ronnie won last time, barely, but the move up looks to be too tough for him at this stage. He needed every bit of A Mac's saving him to be in the right spot last time. That isn't a good way to move up. He has to show me he can compete with winners.

10 Putnams Legacy draws bad here, and was gapping at the end last time with a better post and easier trip. Hard to like him in this spot. He has two zeros for two years. That jumps off the page at you.

Saturday, November 26, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 26, 2016


1 Twomacsonemach was probably the winner last week if he gets a minor breather to the half. He didn't. Henry blasted him out of there and clearly he thought he was going to win the race. Then along comes Cullen, parked out with a horse that wasn't going to clear, and he runs him the entire way. Henry had no choice but to leave him out there. That was enough to get this guy beat by a length at the wire in a very gritty effort. He reminds me a lot of Cajon Lightning, a similar Mach Three gelding who took a while to work out the kinks and put it all together. Henry opts for Weller's so JJ picks up the drive. That scenario worked out well in the opener last night. The rail start puts him at a slight disadvantage, but this is a short field, and this horse showed two back he doesn't need the lead to win against level company. My top call and I'd hope for 3-1, but would be willing to take 5-2.

7 Sir Galahad has been lightly raced over his short career, but shows flashes of high speed and talent, and he is willing to gut it out if need be. He made a road trip to the B tracks and comes back here with 16k made in 4 starts. He is going some very fast miles over London and Flamboro for this time of year, and that has to be respected. Because he won a couple of races, he now must move up on his return without winning at this track. That is the fly in the ointment. These are certainly in his skill range, and I'd rate him a shot on the very good form. He isn't always the soundest. I will have to see how he parades. I'd have to use him in the pick 5 unless he looks like a cripple parading.

2 Mayfield Duke was one of the ones who benefited from the battling last time. He is very much one who capitalizes when others do that, as long as he can be steered, which is a week to week, race to race thing with him. He finished 2nd that night, and has done that 3 of his last 4, and has a lot more 2nd's than wins. I will go elsewhere based on that he is the type that just doesn't get there with decent fields. There are enough in here to suggest something will beat him.

4 Cams Lucky Sam was flat and hanging on Monday night, gapping his cover on the last turn when he had every chance and pacing with the pack home. I have learned that Carmen's horses simply just go flat and come right back on without showing the form that suggests the turnaround. I like others better here, but I'd be inclined to use him in the pick 5 if I had a single in the coming races. Or if you do. McNair is white hot and in the zone right now. That is a factor and he seems to get along well with Carmen's stock. That is a point Portuondo makes in the Journal tonight.

3 P L Jackson was driven out hard by Cullen last time, but Trevor went with him and JJ filled up the hole inside. Cullen had no intention of backing off and looking for a seat, and Trevor was not letting him go in a stakes final To his credit, this one kept at it and paced well right to the wire. Cullen liked what he saw, so he bought him for himself. Will he go easy on this one and let him keep developing? I doubt it. I expect he thinks he is tough as nails and he will drive him based on that. I think this horse needs time to adapt, and can easily go sour if you keep pushing him. The other drivers gave him trips and saved him. So, I'm passing and watching this time. I like the horse. I don't know if I like him in Cullen's barn with him driving him.

5 Speedling watched the early battling last time from the bleachers, and picked up spots along the rail as others moved out to try and pounce. That left him little room in the stretch when the seam didn't open up. J Mac has made a good name playing that driving angle and getting it to work out more than a few times at big odds, which this guy was last time. He did gap out late when he had room, but by then, he maybe gave up or just didn't have the momentum. I'm willing to say he has decent form, and Harding's charges generally outperform their odds. I like others better tonight, but he wouldn't shock me and I keep my eye on him looking for a good spot if he holds that form.

6 Dreamy Fella is the one Henry sticks with as Weller has a lot of power these days and Henry likes to go to the power trainers. And who can blame him? I wasn't impressed with who beat this horse Monday night, and he wasn't traveling well the entire way. Weller's horses didn't exactly light it up last night at short odds. I can go against this one tonight when I like others better. Pass.

8 The Illuminator draws outside again and comes back on short rest. I would have trouble backing him in this class even from a better post. I'd even have trouble backing him in a conditioned claimer, which is where I would suspect he is heading. Lets see if he steps up here and shows me something I have not seen yet....some toughness and more ability. 


4 Traceur Hanover has put back to back strong efforts together and moves back up to try the best this track offers. Fillion took him over his stablemate, something I didn't see coming. That will lead me to go to him for a slight edge. I'd want 3-1 at least to make him a win ticket play, and I'd really be hoping for 7-2. That all depends how much hammering the chalk takes. In any event, I take my top 3 in the pick 5 and if I get any of the 3, I have a value ticket, as the chalk single will wipe out a huge amount of the pool in one shot.

6 Evenin of Pleasure went a huge trip to be 2nd last time, but yet, Fillion has gone to the 4. That is interesting. I guess he is a better long term prospect based on his age and his past class when he was good at 2. I will list him 2nd, as I'm looking for an upset and he is one possibility. I have to go to his stablemate, since Fillion has done that. I'm not certain its one or the other, but if he likes him better, I will rely on that for a slight edge.

5 Nickle Bag comes off a vet scratch sick. He has banked 338k this year and he is hard to knock. 30 days off however leads me to think he wont be as sharp as he appears on the page, and I will list him 3rd, because he just steps up at times when you don't see it coming. If he were to follow the chalk 2nd over, that could be a recipe for him to get it done.

1 Andreios Kardia the obvious favorite who will be a short price if you want him. Single? Not for me. Use him? Not for me. I don't see any value in singling a horse many others will only to shorten a pick 5 into a pick 4 but gain no value. Its very tough to dominate at this level week in week out. He is very legit and tough to beat, but he can be beat. Moreau has two in here, and that tag team of two horses who can blast and control the front, along with others who can leave, means another very long trip for this horse from a rail start. That can get him beat late in the mile. At a likely 2-5, I can take my shot and risk getting taken out by one most would not leave off the ticket. Its a risk/reward play. I will risk it. I list him 4th, not because I think he will miss the ticket, but because I think my top 3 are more likely winners for the price. He probably makes the ticket, but loses the race.

3 Prescotts Hope was galloping to the gate last time, but Phil jerked him into a pace just in time to make the gate and then kept him together as he went to the front, and then never looked back on a really soft bunch. None of those will ever see the Preferred, and this is a huge class rise. Yes, he was as good as all of them last year. That was then. Pass for me. He will have to show me he has what it takes to handle these at this time.

2 Alexas Jackpot does not show me he can beat these as is. He has developed into a kamikaze puller, and that is not to his advantage at this level. I will wait for a class drop and even a more manageable racing style. He isn't good enough to bottom out high end fields.


10 A Rod Hall is the jeckyl and hide of trotters. He can take off running and be ratty, or he can stay at it, stalk, and blow by just about anything. Based on who calls the shots with him now, I can list him on top with a shot because I cant find another to put in the win slot. He is chancy, but I'd hope the 10 hole and his risky nature floats a price of 5-1 or so, which makes him playable.

5 Manofmanyimages moves up a shade here and he has shown that maybe he is not quite ready to do that. He will meet some older foes here, as well as moving up with the winner he could not reach last week. He is coming along. I fully expect him to be a high end 4yo trotter, possibly working his way up to the Preferred, in much the same way Rubber Duck and Covert Operative did last winter. That takes time and tonight is another matter. Bit player off his lines and racing style. He is coming off a rail start, and another one 3 back. That is a good angle. I will list him 2nd with the idea he can do a bit better from the middle of the car.

4 Duh Bubbees had a tough trip 2 back but rebounded nicely last time. He has to be respected, but maybe has trouble sealing the deal at this level. He isnt impossible, but I like a few others here.

7 Tony Soprano made a break leaving, and that is 2 out of 3 times he has done that, sandwiched around a nice score, his lone win on a very disappointing season based on the upside he hinted at when he was 2. He is not very consistent, which is bourne out by his 400k lifetime earnings and spotty racing form. He seems to have been that way from day one of his 2yo year, when Campbell would come in to drive him, and yet he still wouldn't always perform and justify a trip up just to drive him. In my view, he could use a trainer change to someone who might spot something to work on. That worked on Mach Power. For tonight, I will pass on him. He is possible, but erratic enough to push me in other directions.

9 Little Red Chev is tough to back with a post that goes against her preferred style. She drops a win tonight and if she races well, I'd be willing to go to her on a big class drop if she keeps her solid form. Good winter horse for what she brings to the table.

1 Walk to Folsom moves up again off an impressive win. He has come to hand very fast, a lot faster than any of us thought he would. That can happen with aged trotters who simply never made the races as younger ones, for whatever reason held them back. His 6-1 ML is foolish as is many of the lines this Morning Line lister lists. He soundly beat the 5 last time, yet he has double the odds on the ML. That just doesn't make sense. I would think he is the lukewarm favorite in this race, at something between 5-2 and 3-1. He does have the rail, and that is a problem for me. He likes to get out on top, and its a guess to see how brave he is if he has to park and go around horses after the half. Especially now that he tackles older ones with stakes wins and experience. I will go elsewhere based on all of that. And leave him off the pick 5, rolling the dice against him. He will get an acid test tonight to see where he fits on the class scale. I will watch him, with the idea I might go to him next time with a different post.

2 Zagster has bagged 126k in a long and productive campaign. I recall him qualifying in early winter last year, and he has raced out most of the time since. I've seen signs he is a bit worn down, and he has shown that in the last two miles. These aren't soft, and as he appears to be, I will look elsewhere tonight. 55 and a piece might also be his limit, and that isn't enough to win this race if the track is fast and fair. Pass.

3 Ken Kan Win has managed to stay trotting for a few starts and race well. I will give him that. He moves up without winning and hooks a tough bunch. Pass for me. I watch him for some drop in class in the hopes of beating him at a short price if he is ready to blow up again at that point. He has a history of that and history tends to repeat in life, and horses.

6 Azucar didnt show much on the transition to this circuit from Vernon last time. He kept up, but its a guess to say whether he might need to go lower to compete for the ticket. He meets many who beat him last time and others who look better than those. Pass for now. He will find a spot and level. I don't think this is either of those. 

8 Windsun Hugo tries his luck at the big boys table tonight. Post 8, his big class rise, and getting beat by Allies Gift last time, Tortola Sunrise before that, and I Want Kandy before that, does not inspire me to give him much of a shot. He will have to be seen. I see 99-1 in his future tonight.


In talking last night, it was mentioned that some of us should avoid making black and white judgements on horses, for our own good. I fall into that category, as does the person who mentioned it, and I think many of us do. Could I have had Waasmula last night? Nope. I didn't see her on form. Normally, I just toss her even when she has form, because as a bettor, I hate her. She burns you when you latch onto her, and beats you when you avoid her with something you like. But, I now try to avoid tossing her when she has good form. She has made almost a million in her life. That has to be respected. Ride Away Shark is another who is a Waasmula in the making for me. But, I have to just view her as another name on the page and rate her form, not her aura of a type I don't like. I approach this race with a clean slate mindset wise.

2 Miss Coco Luck draws the 2 hole and is likely to blast and then find a friend to carry her to the lane. CC knows her well, and knows what a winning trip looks like for her. She is in the right class, although she is more dangerous one level down. 3 9holes and 3 rails give her a license to have hidden sharp form. I will go top call on her. She wins about every 8th start, and she is right on track for that percentage to play out tonight. The key is hoping the right one tries to loop her and carry her.

8 One Last Bono wired them at the bottom with Cullen, but he has one in here, so J Mac hops aboard. These are tougher, but she has a style that might negate that. I'd think Miss Coco Luck would be willing to let her go. Will Ride Away Shark make a move on them and give this one a pocket trip? That is the race question. I don't know. If she gets that trip, she is possible.

1 Ride Away Shark paced a strong mile last time but had to work hard to get the lead, and then was passed by another with strong class and another who has the odd good day and has some ability when that occurs. She has always been a very low win percentage type, at 2 for 34 this year and 5 for 60 the last two years. Can she get away well enough from the rail to get a decent trip and be liver at the wire? I 'd say the bias is against that, with Miss Coco Luck blasting from the 2 hole and others crashing down from the outside. She paced in 52 flat last time. That has to be respected. I give her a minor shot, but a shot nonetheless. She is 5-2 ML. I wouldn't go anywhere near that price, but she is one you'd have to use in the pick 4.

7 Sing Like an Angel can be a bit of a hanger, but she also earns her way. She bagged 137k in Alberta last year, dominating the Open mares for months. She might have been one that was better off staying there and having Cullen pay his family to race for him. He didn't. He brought her east with him, and now she has to grind out class moving money, which wont be first money most weeks. I will pass on her here, and see how she stacks up when she moves down to the bottom. She is a nice mare with medium ability who is now finding others with more ability.

3 Docs Hollywood moves up when she doesn't have to. I cant see how she competes with these with that form. She is on the trailer because the trainer is coming with others. That wont do anything for me as a bettor. Maybe she bags 5th money.

4 Southwind Geisha has major soundness issues and has begun to make breaks or look like she will when she doesn't. I cant back her until I see that sorted out. Pass for now.

5 Kiss Me or Not  moves up off a decent, gutty win. That field, however, was horrid. The distant 3rd place finisher was up the track last night. I think it was a good spot for her to cash in. She did. Now, she is back where she doesn't look viable. Pass. She will have to show me she is turning it around. As hard as it was to pass the leader last time, I don't see her with this bunch.

6 Back Yard Baby comes in off the layoff to try and make some money for the winter meet, which is more her speed and style.
Being that she was laid off lame and only went evenly in the qualifier, I will wait, watch, and also see if she drops her bottom line. If she gets no money tonight, she gets to come back next time, at the bottom, with a race under her belt. That would be a better and more likely spot for her.

9 Wildcat Beauty moves up, draws the 9 hole and has a terrible win record. She couldn't hold off the only challenger she had last week. I don't see this as a viable spot when you add it all up.

10 Your My Secret is a no shot type with the 10 hole and her 6th different driver in 6 starts. Nuff said. 

I'd certainly need my top 4 in this one for the picks, and if I had a pretty high certainty of cashing the ticket otherwise in any combo with this race attached, I might go top 6. Its a real crapshoot type of race to figure out who might step up.

5 Frankie Boy did better last time, but it still wasnt enough, and he rises a shade here. You can see some progression there, and the two that beat him last time aren't down on their luck types that give you a bad reference. Zeron is cagey with these types. He has a legit shot, like many do in this race.

7 Three of Clubs just went around last time, but paced a monster 3rd quarter off the shelf. With 3 qualifiers and a tune up race following a year off, and 500k in the bank, made almost all at 2 and 3, he fits the profile of one who needed that year to help whatever issue he has. He could come back and reel off some nice scores on the refresh and repair angle. He would never see a bunch like this other than the horrid year he had last year. Longshot chance on the talent rebound angle.

3 Proven Desire takes a class drop off a decent line and gets lasix for his first start in 3 weeks. The improved post is also a factor, although post 3 is not a very high percentage post at Woodbine as a rule. He might be the slight favorite, depending on how willing they are to go to Weller after last nights failure fest of his stock. Just another one with a shot in a race where there are many of those. He must start better to get home first. I don't think that memo needs to be forwarded to J Mac. If he is right, he will blast out and be in the top rung most of the way.

4 Bs Tyrrific comes to Weller as what looks like new owners. This one a homebred, with suspect breeding variables. Also the type Wellers training seems to make go forward. He is fast, and also has put 100k in the bank over two years racing on circuits that dont give you high overnight purses. He will have to leave better to have a shot to take this bunch. I dont see that as an issue with Weller tuning him up and Trevor sharpening the knife going to the gate. 8 of 25 is a good win percentage at any track, and he won money doing it. He didn't reel off 6 straight at Rideau beating 2 claimers.

1 Sunny Beach Day takes the big class drop, which is a good angle for him. He hasn't looked sound his last few, but he gets like that and still consistently turns it around. I have to ignore that factor with him unless he parades horrible, which he generally doesn't. Trevor goes to Weller, which is no shock or indicator, but, he generally is the driver that gets the most out of this horse. I'm willing to go against him for the win on the sum of all the factors, but would list him on the ticket or close to it with a shot if the right things happen. One of many who could step up here.

2 Real Kid ships in from a solid score at Flamboro, with the usual soft 2nd quarter the leader gets there and the accelerated pace from there to hold position if you are legit. He has showed talent before and also soundness and steering issues. He returns to Wallace on the return to this track. McNair sticks with his dads horse. I give this one a shot. Have to see him parade. His on track appearance is relevant to any play you can make on him.

9 Ideal Jet bombed out on me last time when he looked to be set up in a good spot to do damage with a false favorite and a bunch of non performers. I rarely play this horse because he disappoints me every time. He does well for his connections, but that doesn't help my bank account. He can beat me this week if he is better. Being consistent, as I mentioned last night means sticking with what works for you. Going against this type is something I consistently do. I could have had Champagne Phil to show last week, which was my initial intention. I played this one instead. So, I lost my bet, and lost some profit on the one I should have been on. My mistake. Wont happen again. Again, he can beat me. He is capable enough to do that. I will take the hit if he does.

10 Uf Bettors Hanover was really good last time out, 2nd to a class dropper with solid form who tripped out, and also he paced a huge back half. West's stock is really good right now. He pulled off the upset last night with Sierra Madre. Post 10, however, is a big issue for this horse. I will take my chances and stay away from him. He is dangerous enough with this bunch, but post matters when you aren't the best. He certainly is not that. His form is to be respected if he holds it and draws better next time back in with these.

6 Hidden Potential too many options in this one to go to him. He will have to drop to the absolute bottom and give me big odds for me to back one who doesn't win many at this track...or others.

8 Smarter Yet Another one on the trailer that probably doesn't show up if he doesn't have car pool mates to come with him. I like others a lot better here. I cant use him based on so many I can. He grinds out a good buck at the B's. He would be better off racing at Flamboro today and picked back up on the way home. Pass.
 4 Its All About Sam  looked really good parading last time, but still didn't measure up in the race. She is 3rd time lasix, and still has work to do if she is going to be any more than a cheap claimer or B track type who finds soft fields once every 6 weeks. Her back half of 57.2 shows some improvement overall. I dont like much overall in this bunch, so I will give her a shot for the price. Steve Hudon has a history of bringing in big longshots he trains and owns that he has recently gotten. She is 0 for 16 this year. That is troubling. You accept some risk for the reward. For me, I'd have to get 15-1 and I'd actually want closer to 20 or 25 to take a shot here. I think that is possible with at least 3 legit low price contenders on the page.

5 Safekeeping has been rock solid on form for many weeks, but not as dominant in two tries at this level as she was the step below. That happens and has to be expected as she meets others who worked their way up and succeeded at that task just like she has. I will put her underneath my big longshot, but it could be either of those two, and even my 3rd choice has a variable I have to respect.

6 Batoutahill gets lasix and takes a class drop back to where she was fairly dominant. I would think she goes off as a slight favorite, in the 9-5 range. I have to respect all of that, and think she is in the mix, but the short price makes me take two others on top of her, She likes to come late. If the likely fave is willing to park out the 5, she could be sitting on that ones back and take an edge.

3 Major Muscle relaxed better last time and got the breather she needed. That was enough to hold off her main foe lately, and that one also maybe is tailing off a shade. These types are groove horses and this one has found the groove. Can she keep it going before she falls off like the rest of them? Generally those that do it on the front end every time go down faster. I will go elsewhere after cashing in on her last time. 
 2 Lmc Mass Oak was a solid 2nd last time and looks like a good claim. Lots of room to pile up earnings on this one, but he meets a tough bunch tonight to get on the ticket. He has a shot at that, but not for my win call. 
 1 Pink Pistol comes in with multiple breaks and a new trainer who I've never heard of. Also gets the rail for a young trotter. Thats enough for me. I will watch her once. At least. She has recently gotten trotting hopples and her qualifier was good. That's a start.

9 Giant Muscles draws bad and is not the most gritty, determined type you find. A better post, a few others who move up, he might slide into a viable spot. This isn't that spot.

10 Windsong Magic I would think is just getting around tonight and is to be watched for the score I know is coming in the next two months as Gillis sorts her out and she draws a viable spot to work with.

7 Stonebridge Peace drops out of the Autumn, but has issues and I like at least 4 much better than her without even thinking too hard. Pass.

8 All out Henry looks over matched tonight with post 8 and a lack of speed on the page. He isn't a young colt. If he had that speed, we would have seen signs of it before. Might have been an okay maiden play if he fit that, but that ship sailed 8 times already at the B tracks.

3 Mach on the Beach tries to keep the ball rolling here, and why not? He has all the right variables. He likes to leave and has a post to try and do that. He has the top driver, the highest percentage trainer and he is sharp and racing steady. How low a price would I take? I'm going to say 2-1, but that is really pushing it. I will say 5-2 or 3-1 would make me feel more comfortable, but I'm not sure that is realistic. I'd be on the fence to almost single him in here. When he gets good, he is the type he can reel off several. The 8 is likely to take money. Portoundo lists him on top and I'd think others will go to him on the class drop. That is why I think I get my price.

4 Reel had no pop last time, and I listed him with a shot in that race as I thought he was starting to put it together. He could this week also, and I will go back to him underneath my choice as a longshot play if that one fails. I don't like to take short prices on horses that dont win much, like the 8. I'd rather take a price on one like this, who is bound to pop in the coming weeks. That could be tonight. It could be in January.

6 Velocity Driven has changed his style this year, becoming a solid leaver, sitter and chaser. He was known as a consistent late closer with explosive speed before, but this style gets him more wins and more cheques. Last time it got him backed into and he got out late for 3rd. If he leaves hard, as this post is noted for being good to do, he has a shot at late room and the win. Minor shot, but he is possible if the trip works out.

8 Asap Hanover takes a drop, but he is prone to get beat while being viable at a short price. I will play him that way tonight. He has a shot, but I suspect odds wont match actual chance if I know the bettors at this track. He starts just poorly enough to fall into a trip that will cost him. That is all it takes for him to finish 2nd or 3rd, but not first.

5 Casimir Overdrive has decent form but has a tactical disadvantage at this level. He doesn't leave enough to get a soft trip. He will grind, but doesn't have high speed to pass the leader. He will hang the last turn, but pace forward in the lane. He loses too many lengths along the way to beat the winner, but wins anyway when he is one or two steps below this. Pass tonight. I like him back at the bottom or in for a claiming tag if he hits the right field. These are better, and the better ones beat him week in, week out.

1 Surprise Hanover had every chance to get at least 2nd last time, but didn't. He shows no vigor and never really has. I will wait until he dives back down and look him over then. I took a longshot on him last time and he raced like he was that. Time to move on from him for now.

2 Bugger Bruiser wasn't as dominant as I expected he might be last time, but he also had to lay off a speedball who could have cost him a decent trip. In any event, he doesn't stack up well with these as is. I like others. He is possible when he has a great night. There haven't been many of those since he was a 2yo bearcat who would park entire fields and live to tell. He lived to tell, but doesn't have as many answers as an aged horse.

7 Woggy Rocks took Avatartist at the bottom in a really soft field. My fat sister could take Avatartist these days. The move up does this one in. Pass.

9 Paparazzi Hanover went to Flamboro looking for a score but drew poorly and missed the ticket twice, albeit up close to the winner at the wire. Another bad post, plus his no try breeding suggests I can wait for a move to the bottom and a decent post and I will watch Cullen send him on a mission that night with the customary rocking and tattoo whipping needed to motivate this type. That worked just fine on October 16th when all the variables came together nicely at 1-5.
These races are fun to try and figure, because a lot of the pieces are dependent on the other pieces and what might happen, and what will happen if a piece changes and alters the race. Last night, Katies Beach stumbled right at the gate, and that gave JJ an easier lead than he might have. Because of that, he put Fillion back in the 2 hole and that ended up being the winning variable. So, we banter about who we like in these types of races, but it all depends on so many different things that COULD happen.

3 Mach Power was solid last time, leaving out well and coming back on in the middle of the track. Just missing the ticket in a blanket photo for 2nd. He isn't reliable yet, week to week, but he seems to be heading towards that. For whatever reason, JJ gets along with him best and can do more with him in the turns than others do. That is a plus as he sticks with him.

2 Daylight Rush wired them last week and is razor sharp. This is not a deep bunch, and he looks like 4-5 to me off the program. Not a price I'd take on horse that goes to the front hard every week. Those wear down fast, and he has a history of losing form after a few. I would think JJ is aiming for the 2 hole here and that means Cullen will be running at this one. That doesn't set it up well for this one if it plays out like that. It doesn't always go as you expect, but if that did, he should get picked up late by whatever you like. I like the 3, but whoever you like, I think they can take this one this week.

6 Flaherty got to the 2 hole last time and that is what it takes for him to be viable. Will he get there this time? Cullen seems to get hung out a lot and not many want to let him go. Is it because he is the new guy in town? Is it because he wants the top and doesn't have the power to gain the respect that the colony demands if you want them to grab up? I have no clue. But, he gets hung. A lot. That makes this race interesting. If he tries for the lead, doesn't get it, and attempts to back off, I don't see any holes for him. That leads me to play JJ and not this one or McNair.  I can list him 3rd. If JJ's one locks on a line in the turn and he beats him to the 2 hole, he becomes a lot more viable. That isn't impossible to happen.

5 Imkeepnthisguy missed last week, but has been solid with these for weeks. He does start slow, and that got him beat as the fave last time on a night when they battled but the winner beat him to the punch and daylighted the field to the tote board. His last quarters are just not quite good enough for one that likes to sit way out of it. That gets him smaller slices and less wins. I will call that scenario to play out again, unless Cullen runs McNair and he parks him, while JJ shuts the 2 hole off and this one can move earlier and get around them all. That is a lot to ask for or expect.

8 Electric Western is 5 for 48 with the 8 hole and Mario, at a level where he is dangerous from a good start but in trouble when he has to spot them 8 to 10 like he probably does here. He can get up for the ticket again here if enough battling occurs in front of him, if you want to play for a large tri and use him that way.

4 Weatherly beat Dialamara and Casimir Overdrive by wiring them on a night when that was a good tactic to deploy. Back in with these, he was well back at the start and paced home with the pack for no money. Possible bottom of the ticket type, but he looks in deep to beat them.

1 Perfect Vista has become one of many at this level, and while I've always liked him and viewed him as value when Sinclair tagged him and they jumped on him, I think he is at the level where he has trouble putting them back to back against tough customers, usually a different one every week. J Mac drives while Drury gets some vet work on his shoulder. I like others. He could make the super, even the tri. I don't view him as a likely win candidate.

7 Windsong Lightning was on a nice roll, but looks quite a bit over his head with this bunch. He has been off a month sick anyway. I will watch to see where he is at as he tries to get back on track.
Any of my top 3. I list them in order, but I dont make a claim that they are more viable than each other.

2 Company Man was potentially a sharp claim, as Team Moreau took a page out of Joe C's playbook and claimed one at Hoosier as the meet ends, so they can race him here right away without any penalty or restrictions. He isn't finishing well, but perhaps Moreau can do something about that. He has a fast lifetime mark, and on his best day, he can go enough to beat these. He is one of many who are possible.

6 Domethatagain ships in for Allard with better form than most of the rest that have, and a big bank account. He is hard to ignore with this bunch, although beatable enough on his Pocono form.

4 Cool Rock is razor sharp and looked like the winner last time until picked off by the longest shot on the board, who he faces again. I could make a case for him, but his pace dependent style makes it hard to take him on top when he reaches this class. One of many, another who can be made a case for.

5 Mr Carrotts got up late last time, as the pace slowed to a walk. That worked out for him and he was full value. He rarely catches a break like that. I will go another direction. His first win of the year. I dont see him as a likely double up candidate.

1 Vegas Rocks tried to draw off on them last time, and that has worked for him before. He got picked up last time, and meets a few of those again, and some new ones who look better than him. I will go elsewhere.

7 American Virgin has looked horrid on the track of late. JJ ditches a Grant horse for Allard's one. That is plenty enough reason for me to go with what I would have anyway. He has to show me a lot more soundness to get me back on his bandwagon.

8 Continual Hanover draws badly and will dig an early hole by sitting 10 or so off the pace. He is a 3yo who now has to face older ones until Darling moves him to some guy at Dover or Yonkers in the near future. He is up against it to win races when he now hooks the class droppers he finds every week.

3 Heza Thrill N is one I cannot back based on how O'Sullivan's stock performed last week. I will wait to see if he is fit and healthy. He would have to be 100% tip top to be viable with these.
Either of my top 2, and I'd want 4-1 on both, which I think is reasonable in this type of race. Give or take. 7-2 on a late flash is something you live with when they are in this range.

6 Mach Pride ships back in for Carmen. I've always liked this horse. Drives straight, he is fast off the gate and he will carry his speed if he can stay up close and reserve just enough for the end of the mile. Being down at this level also helps. He has shipped back in before and popped right off the bat. Top call on all of that, from the best post at this track with the red hot McNair who is doing well with Carmen's stock. 

1 Avatartist coughed it up again last week, this time to Woggy Rocks, who had suspect form but showed up to make this one pay for easing up in the lane, as he is prone to do at this point. He has to move up because he has picked up slices. That isn't good, but this type sometimes beats you when you ditch him after he failed you as a short price when he looked solid. He didn't get me. I know his act. In this race, he has the 6 horse who is willing to blast and cover him up the entire way. That could get him the type of brave trip to push him over the top. What price would make me take such a foolish leap of faith? I'm going to say 4-1.

5 Darcee N is finally in drop and pop territory, as I mentioned he would need to be for me to go to him. He also comes off two rail starts, and that certainly cost him a bit of position to the half, and resulted in longer trips. I will list him 3rd. I like two others better and they have proven drivers who can win races at this track. The jury is out on Cullen at this stage. Late pick 4 use, but I wouldn't play him on top as a win bet. One more level down, I'd probably be all over him.

3 Dalton Did It takes a big class drop, and keeps Fillion. His last win is good enough to be right up there with these. I list him 4th, but he is possible if those ahead of him, who dont always show up in the lane, stick to that history tonight.

10 Champagne Phil would be on my ticket if he drew better. He didn't. He could still make 3rd, but I am listing my top 3 as win candidates, not ticket candidates. Another night for him.

2 Lovedancinwithyou won at the bottom on this circuit at 40-1, but is more of a B track horse and struggles with these, even though they aren't that difficult. I will go elsewhere. He isn't impossible to score at big odds again. Most of these can when they face friends who are riding on hard times like they are. Show Some Leg gave us an example of how that works last night. He needs to be in the top 5 at the half, not way back. He shows poor starts. His chances are not good based on what he shows you.

4 Shock N Rock draws slightly better and has been on the fringes with slightly easier. However, he seems to be just short of winning form with these. I like others better. If he goes back down a level, he is viable if the post gods are in his corner like they are tonight.

7 Trashytonguetalker has solid form with two wins in fast time, although cheap claimers can go 52 at Hoosier, so that is negligible. First time Weller, off a vet scratch and 3 weeks off. I will go against him here based on what I saw last night. I've said before that Weller is better with this exact type 2nd start in his barn if you like the horse. I have to see him. I didn't like Eas Ideal at all and he confirmed that by being NFG every time he steps on the track.

8 Arrived Late has never performed well at this track and a post 8 start where others will outleave him makes it easy for me to discount him.

9 Zingers Laugh is up against it tonight on post, class, form and soundness. I can toss him with confidence.

Friday, November 25, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 25, 2016


5 Katies Beach was rock solid last week, blasting to the top, letting the favorite go and following her all the way to the wire. She was 2nd best for sure, but she clearly won the race she could. She has been sharp for weeks and picks up J Mac as McNair goes to the 9 horse. She is 12-1 ML, which I dont get, but I`m sure she will be in that range or a bit lower. If the bearcat chalk can`t keep the party going, she easily could be the one to step up. She draws the 5 hole again, and that is a very good post at WEG to deploy her style. Big shot for a nice price. 

3 Aintsheasweetie drew poorly last week and had to go to the back of the bus. She picked up live 3rd over cover in a good flow, but gapped that a shade turning for home. She stayed on the bit and stormed home with the pack and just missed the ticket in a blanket finish for 2nd. I like her determination to pace right to the wire, which she always has done, even when she was drifting out 9 wide for previous trainers. Carmen has her sharp. Shot tonight as a longshot if the flow and trip work out for her. It would be great if she was away 6th and 2nd over rather than 3rd over. 

8 Pop Goes Theweasel seemed to turn her form around last time. She blasted out for the lead, let one go, and was up on the bit the entire way. The one that cleared her had no pace and even had trouble getting by, then backed her into a bad shuffle, while another blew by that one and opened up. She had to wait the entire turn and then some to get back out and go forward. She appeared to lack some room, but had lots of pace, but maybe not enough momentum built up. This can be considered a class drop relative to that field, and Fillion goes to the 6, who is red hot. JJ is fine for this type. Post 8, so she isn`t likely to cut it. I can see her getting it done if the trip works out at a big price. 

6 Hot Spot Hanover got back on track last time and kept it going. She is hard to discount at this stage. She just keeps winning and doing it whatever way she needs to. There is some competition in this race, and I could see her being ground down. I will go against her again, as I did last week. Its very tough for mares to keep this kind of form for two months. She is approaching that time frame now. Its a simple probability play. I dont ignore her form. That is rock solid. No doubt. 

2 Selling the Dream didnt have much pop last time and generally it appears she is a shade tired from a long season. Badlands Hanover mares are well known for simply losing their form for a stretch. Ms Mac N Cheese showing that even the better ones from that sire do it. This one didn`t leave last time, picked up live cover, but began to hang badly by the tote board. That is not how she was just a few weeks ago, when she would simply mow them down. This is a bit of a class drop for her, but I`m not sure its enough. Her last two have been poor, and 3 of her last 4. I see a downward trend. I go to others.

9 Big Tsunami is a poor leaver and that gets her the parking ticket most weeks. Last week it did just that, and while she ground and worked her way up, she was on her hands and knees at the wire, holding 2nd in a dead heat, but the majority of the closers were almost past her. Post 9 makes the journey longer this time. This field is much deeper than the one she faced last time. Pass on her this time on post and class. Another week maybe. 

10 Miss Babe Delight left out evenly last time, but when she made her move 2nd over, she was following one who was never traveling well. When she went to go around that one, they hooked wheels and down the drain went her chance at 2nd. She wasn`t beating the winner either way, who she faces again, and since she has the 10 hole here, I will take a pass on her and wait for another spot. 

4 Three Dreams got the win October 7th at Philly. She had the rail that day, was the favorite, sat the pocket the entire way and came up the passing lane, an all out drive to hold off the pack that was with her. Otherwise, and since, she has been overmatched. Cullen has purchased her, and I don`t think all his slashing and rocking will make any difference with her. If he pulls her, she will hang and go backwards. These look too tough for her in my view. I will keep my eye on her. Maybe at the bottom condition she will do some damage.

7 Dontbruisecarrie used the 2 hole to her advantage last week, blasting out and settling into a pocket on the chalky winners back the entire way. By the last turn, she was steppy and bearing in, coming out of the turn well inside 2 pylons and being outpaced by most of the field. She draws poorer here, and looks overmatched. I`d say a 15 claimer is more appropriate at this point. Pass.

1 Docs Sausalito missed retention last week and was scratched. She drew two 8 holes in the Autumn, and even won with one of them. although she was forced to go to the back both times. Cullen has one of his own, so Randy is back at the controls. Her best reference are the lines before the Autumn, where she was spotty with lesser than the top 3 or 4 in this race. That, added to the rail, means a pass for me. I will keep an eye on her. She is likely to find the right spot to score by Valentines Day.


8 Striknglyimpresive  is a borderline basket case type, but when she behaves, and gets the lead, the odd night she just stays at it. She shows up 3 weeks from her last, with lasix added. The new go-to tactic for any trainer when the horse stops. Its just something they try. It works on some, doesn`t on others. Based on her breeding, its likely to work on her. She is very chancy, but I will call her to upset the obvious chalk, who I like. Its strictly a hope she behaves and that she can come back to her overall speed with lasix added.  

5 Maker a Yankee is a new horse for Blake, and has 140k in the bank over 2 years. You can`t knock any of that. CC took her over one of Per`s, and that also is a plus. She certainly stacks up well with this bunch, but also only has 1 win all year. That could be because she chased stakes fillies all year, and also she is 3 weeks out of the box. A lot of mixed variables. This certainly is a class drop relative to any line she has on the page. In her last, she did want to leave from the outside, but was stacked up 4 wide in the turn and took back, then pinned in the rest of the way until late, where she trotted forward. She also bears in just enough at Yonkers to think the bigger oval tonight helps her cause. 
3 Miami Magic isnt always the prettiest trotter, but she sticks to trotting in spite of it. So, I look the other way when I see her parade in a generally suspect way. If she were to look better, she would probably handle this bunch with ease. She made 60k and hit the ticket 50% of the time going like that all year. The winner of her last race came back to trot in 54. I give her a big shot in here because they are pretty soft top to bottom. She has a bit of class. 

 1 Hurricane Hazel left well but backed away last time. The top 2 were kind of tough relative to what she meets here and she was almost off a month sick between starts. Post 1 is a problem here for her, and I will go to others. She will come around and win one this winter. I don`t think its this race.

 4 Smash Hit draws better, but loses CC to the 5. She just doesn`t do enough either at the start or the finish to play her most weeks. I have gone to her a few times lately, but I will look elsewhere for now.

6 Agent Dinozzo loses J Mac to the 10 horse. That isnt good. Anyone that watches this horse knows he needs a lot of babying just to get away clean, and even most of the way to keep him trotting. Talent and speed he does have, but just as many issues. I don`t like the idea of a new driver on him, even if it is an experienced trotting guy like P Mac. I can`t back him with all I see on the page.

7 Pollar Hall caught a huge break last time as the leader broke as he was hung out to dry and that gave him the front by default, He held on for dear life, and now tries the next level up. I cant see him at this stage. He was probably better off being 2nd last time and grinding out big chunks in that class but not winning. That ship has sailed now.

2 Joyous Hall comes off 2 breaks at Flamboro, a get around clean qualifier at Woodbine last week, and as far as I remember has never won a race on this circuit. She isn`t even winning at the B`s this year. 1 win out of 23. Pass for me. 

9 Tuscans Memory drops out of the Autumn, but draws poorly here and would be up against it even if he wasn`t on the outside. He doesn`t show the speed he needs for the ones who are likely to make the ticket here. I`m not sold Moreau makes a difference on this one. The pacers he has gotten from that owner yes, but not the trotters. Most of them just are poorly bred and no good period, or B track stock. Pass. 

10 V for Victory has X`s all over the page, for Allard, who would race a 3 legged dog against lions and have him eaten. He simply doesn`t care and has zero respect for all the bettors and every horsemen out there. He wins strictly on volume of a large stable. Once again, I will not consider any qualifier that a horse races in if I know the history of the trainer is to cheat to win. He is barred from many tracks for a reason. Pass on this horse in a real race. 

Consistency is really important when you play horses. Knowing that,  if you stick to your guns you are going to get beat by the exceptions. You have to learn to accept that part of the deal and stick with what you think you know, and what works for you. I have concluded the rail at Woodbine, and to some extent Mohawk,  is death for trotters, and especially young ones. And also, any of them that need to be out near the lead, and will not park and finish as we saw last night with Stormont Dundas when he put in nasty steps leaving and was forced to rough it, a trip he cant take. That variable is in play in this race, and my comment on the rail horse will reflect that. Sure, an Olympic Son can always turn that theory on its head for a race, but thats the game. We all get beat by a Mr Carrots every now and again like last Saturday, but we don`t change how we play, unless we think we need to. I don`t. I`m confident most young trotters from the rail are at a huge disadvantage on the night they draw that post. And further, I`d by looking to play them back the next start if I like them generally. Very much how we viewed the 8 hole back in the old days at Greenwood. Its goes against all logic that the rail would be viewed that way, but it is what it is and the data backs it up. If you stuck to that theory last night, you got both Entranced and Escuela on that very angle. It made just enough difference that they both got it done when they didn`t have a poor start and tough trip like they did their previous start.

8 Night Witch looked good on paper last time and her last race prior to showing up here was solid, but she paraded sore behind and didn`t have the jump she needed to. That cost her late. I have to think Boyd has looked after that, and that makes her a big player in with this bunch, at a bigger price with the 8 hole this time. Post parade watching is important, because none of that will be on the program page going forward and perhaps gives you reasons to play a horse others might ignore without a valid reason. I use that angle here on this one. She could still be sore, and no good, but she could also be better and win at a price.

6 Swan for Dee shipped into Philly from Hoosier, where she was a bit player conditioned claimer for Erv Miller, who has moved her out of the barn for the younger prospects, as always. Libby takes over now, and he is very good at tuning up this type. She is a long gaited, slick trotter, like many of the Swan For All`s, and resembles Bags For All in that way, who is another who wasnt much at Hoosier but came here and really stepped up...over time. Last time, she left out but had to take a seat, then pulled first up when the pace was slow and the ones in front of her were gapping, only to get to the wheel of the 1-5 shot who picked it up when she put some pressure on him, and he drew off. She held 3rd and I can respect that mile. She was a lot better in that class when she left out for the top and sat a trip. Just the type of trip JJ can get for her. She is a player here, and I think has a shot, but I wont list her on top. For sure a use in the pick 5.

2 Sunrise Avenue has been keeping tough company this year, and doing well. Her last at this level she was a narrowly beaten 2nd. That winner went forward right away, while she tried some tough customers and held her own but didn`t win. A repeat of her last probably beats these, although that was also 3 weeks ago. I have full confidence Zeron has her ready to race in spite of the gap.

3 Sibson got the pocket trip and got up late to beat a group of professional maidens. He will need a few to adapt to these. Pass for now. The jury is out if he makes the transition at all. He will have to show he can at least trot in 57, which he has not yet done.

1 Are You In trotted a better overall mile last time, still away poorly, but benefiting from others who didn`t perform and a leader who blew up under no pressure. That was his first start for Walker and he took his time down a bit as well. Its no great insight to see she is very good with trotters, and that has to be respected. However, tonight he gets the rail, and that will put him deep behind the 8-ball again. His two starts on the page from the rail, although they weren`t for Walker and both appear to show he was miles over his head, he didn`t perform at all. I will stick to my guns and leave him alone this time, but I think he is a prospect to cash a nice ticket at some point this winter.

9 Oceanview Pancho got the WEG acid test last time on the move west from Cheapville, and he burned up. He was great until they started to trot away at the tote board. He comes back with the 9 hole here. I will wait to see if he adapts. My gut feeling is he wont, and he is destined for Flamboro or London. His high earnings and wins are the only reason he didn`t start out there. That is the lot in life for Sire Stakes horses who beat up on mutts for 2 years and have to face real competition when they move uptown to face the talent.

4 Classical Son has not impressed me in any way from what I see of him, and with two gate breaks sending him to dummy school, he will have to be seen and show he can behave for openers.

5 Grace Duharas draws better for her 3rd try with these. I wasnt impressed by her maiden win, nor her starts before that. She is a bit player at this level unless she shows a lot more.

7 Hills Angel is 2 for 30 lifetime and a consistent bad behaving type. I have to see her show some consistent racing to even think of backing her.

10 Prince of Minto I will watch this time. No point in even rating him when he draws the 10 hole and shows up the first time to try this track.


6 Casimir Operaqueen was out the entire mile last week from the 10 hole for her first try at this track. At times, she was out on her own, and seemed lost, and was prone to ease up, something you see a lot from her sires foals. Zeron kept tapping her, and she kept going forward. In the lane, he gave it to her and she kept going forward. She is a big long striding filly and Woodbine suits her.  For all of that, she got beat two lengths and comes right back with the 6 hole, the best post at this track. She is a must use, and she is 10-1 ML. I can see where that is not realistic, and she will take serious money, but I`d still want 9-2 to give her a try on top. I`d think that was reasonable.

8 Casimir Pardon Me ships in and has dangerous variables. First off, who is Cliff McGuire
? Never heard of him before last year, but he ships in with horses like Waltzking Hanover and Vital Sign that look horrific on the program then win, win, win. Secondly, this horse was parked the mile at London last time, but kept at it. I`d have to give her the longshot benefit of the doubt with Trevor signed up. She could just flop, but she is interesting.

3 Northern Prima floated out mid pack last time, stayed in and picked up positions up the rail, and then ran into a brick wall in the lane. She did keep up, and might have gone forward. Being that she is a Jeremes Jet, I say might. I can use her on the chance she does if she gets a similar trip here. She has improved for Arsenault. For sure.

2 Life Groove  got up late for 2nd last time at big odds. It was a good effort, but she was one of many and had a nice tow, only to hang a shade early in the stretch. One race does not winning form make. I will pass on her here as she draws the shorter price and go to others who have close to similar form but are likely to bring higher odds.

4 Lucky Player  left out last time but had to stay in, Fillion was reluctant to pull and waited until the last 2nd when he got Travis to sacrifice and do the work. That got her in the picture as one of many at the wire. I think Fillion has learned with this one that she wont work for it, and thus, I can rely on the likelihood she gets some kind of unlucky trip. I can go elsewhere, when there are others to go to. Pass.

5 I Wish You Well moves up off a solid win where she took the pocket and blew by late, holding off one who has some talent, but wasn`t so dangerous last night. I think she will need at least one in this class, probably 3 or 4, before she can be considered a win candidate. I like others on this night. She has promise. Lets see if she goes forward. She is fast. For sure.

 9 P L Jasmine backed away and disappointed me last time as my top pick. She gets the 9 hole and picks up Cullen. I have to pass this week. Maybe another week. Maybe Cullen buys this one too if he likes what he sees.

7 Drift Panic drops out of the Autumn, where she was overclassed, coming in after dominating Rideau rats for months. I`d have to see a lot more from her to go to her in this type of field. The jury is out. She is classified now to see what she can really do. I`m of the opinion she will need to find a claimer if she is to do.

1 Mrs Krabappel is one I watched race several times when I watched Truro for a while this summer. She is hard to watch. Or was. She is an ugly traveler. Brealey has made her go, and for whatever reason he is good with those suspect gaited All American Native`s, so I have to view her in terms of what he has done with some of those. She was 3-5 last time at Flamboro, and she is a half leaver, so she ended up first up, dueling with the leader, and others benefited when they got to the wire. I`m not sure she has A track speed, and if she shows she can pace around 55, might be ok for a conditioned claimer or even the bottom fillies and mares straight claimer. Pass for me tonight.

10 On the Minute Mark has one lifetime win and draws the 10 hole. She was solid last week. I will wait for next week if she draws better then. She is a good leaver and follows well, her fathers daughter. Working for it though, is not her sires forte in most of his foals. See Leaf And Wings for evidence of that.

 RACE 5 

Part of the game, with these types, is class dropping, and dropping money to get to the class you want. In those cases, you race them easy when they are over their heads with the idea that its better to get no money than get 4th or 5th money and try for 1st money the next time out. That is the game. Most of the players in this race are well aware of how to play the game to milk a good buck out of these types. When I was in it, we called that putting one in jail. Better to do your time than try to scale the wall and get shot in the back.

2 Lindwood Beachgirl  drew badly both in the BC final and last week. She gave them 17 at the quarter last time, but was only beat 3. That indicates she has adapted to these older mares, which is where she will race unless they intend to breed her this winter. She stacks up well here with a better start.

6 Lovethewayoulook flourished under Weller when she came here but was laid off. If memory serves, she got on the no race list for a positive, but there is no mention of a DQ on the program. In any event, I recall it and have to think she isn`t as lively without the junk. I can go elsewhere. Again, a qualifier is not a race. Maybe he has different junk tonight that gets the same effect but wont test. Maybe.

9 Greystone Ladylike was her old self last time and class rises mean nothing to this mare when she is on top of her game. She has a post disadvantage to a couple I will go to over her, but she could easily overcome that. 10-1 ML is foolish. She could even be 3-1 at post time.

3 Rubis Prescott made a confident move to the top last time but had trouble clearing and then backed away gradually. She can go up and down like a yo yo with her form. She maybe is tailing off now and these arent soft enough. I like others, but if she were to reverse the form back to full speed ahead, she is dangerous.

8 Bet Ya has been flat for weeks and looks raced out. She loses the inside draw, and while she could turn it around, I wouldn`t count on it. I will wait for a class drop to see if I like her then, or want to go against her then. She drops a 9k win tonight, so, she could easily hit bottom next week, and still go down as is.

10 Victoria Semalu was full value on the front end last time in the first start for Moreau. These are tougher and she has the 10 hole. No thanks.

5 Regally Ready was flying late last time to just miss 2nd by herself, and gets a much better post here. She is a durable warrior at 40 starts for the year, but this class level has proven tough for her at times. I have to like others based on what she has shown. She drops a win off her card this week, and I will watch her for the likely move back down for the score attempt. Zeron knows the game. So do I.

4 Barockey moves way up without winning. Why, I dont know. Pass, yes, that I know.

1 Wildcat Magic is not one I prefer in with a salty and talented bunch like this. I will wait for the move back down to where she won last time, or lower.

7 Naughty Lady B is in very deep with most of these. Cant use her in this class and I`ll wait for a class drop.


9 Bring Me Diamonds raced a huge trip last week, first time claimer, from this post. She vacated the pocket after racing hard to get it off the wings, only to have to move early because Trevor was on her back with the main competition and he would have pinned her in if she stayed put. I would expect she is cutting the entire mile this week unless Trevor wants the top. In either case, she will have a chance to turn the tables, which is my call. I`d hope for 3-1 in that scenario, and I will take it.

2 Miss Jones Shooter gets another try in this class, will get claimed tonight and will attempt the 3peat at even money or less. I like her, but I`m not sure I take that short a price in this race. She just got up last week, and she is the type that waits on horses, which is a dangerous thing and can get you beat even when it shouldn`t. Contender, but no cinch. The outside two probably blast again, and we might be in for a rodeo. That might not favor her.

8 Queenofhearts laid way off last time and that paid off late as she came on for a decent 3rd. She has upside, but although she went for the lower tag, she still drew bad. I will pass this week, but list her a minor shot if all my top 3 bomb out. Unlikely, but its a horse race.

10 Jump Jive and Jam takes the high tag and gets post 10 again. That worked against her chances in the lane last time, and I suspect it will again. I would think JJ backs off and tries it from off the pace this time. That can get her 3rd or 4th, but it appears a 2 horse race to me, and she isn`t one of those two.

1 Howmacscanasta ships in for Puddy, after bagging 73k in the Maritime Sire Stakes. A pretty nice slice for that type of program. It also gives her no shot at conditioned types on this circuit, as her speed doesn`t match up to that sort of class. So, right into the claimers, no fooling around. 57.1  over Truro is about 53 or 52 at this track, so, she certainly rates a shot with these. Her dam made 390k and won in 50 and change on this circuit, and the family is loaded with big money and fast winners. She should be good enough to compete, unlike a lot of Maritime types that are nickel breds beating up on worse nickel breds. However, she didn`t finish off the season well there, and I want to see one from her, now that she is also off almost a month. Pass, but watch with interest.

5 Twenty Three Red drops out of the Autumn where she was outclassed and drew bad anyway. She comes back first time lasix and with a tag. She looks like a B track type to me, and I will have to be convinced Lasix will step her up. I dont see the talent in this one.

6 Charming Hill was pretty good in the straight 12, but is 2nd tier with this level of pacer. I think she gets left behind when they start speeding up towards the last turn. To me, it looked like she was going all she could go last time and that wasn`t good enough to get money.

3 Diamond Tested has a maiden win at KD to show for her career. That wont even get close to cutting it here. Total pass.

4 More Than Many left for position last time, but couldn`t go with the top bunch when they paced away. Pass on her. She needs to find a softer level of competition.

7 Boozer Bruiser made a break leaving last time. I cant back her until I see something positive. That will come. When it does, I will take note.

I`d need my top 6 for both the last leg of the early pick 4, and the opening leg of the late. I would be able to do that because I would only take 2 in race 6.

2 Legal Process got up for 3rd last time off the layoff. She is obviously viable here for the combo of Weller and Henry. Post 2 gets her near the top and I wouldn`t be shocked if Henry blasts down the backside and tries to gain control. Being ahead is sometimes how you beat horses who get to this level and dont have the desire to go by if they dont have the lead.

6 Voodoo Charm was steppy leaving last time and Fillion held her together, then kept her in while the flow moved past her. Perhaps Moreau fixed the issue. I will need the post parade to make that call for myself. She is either very viable or sucker money. That is a post parade/post time odds call I will make.

3 True Reflection draws a lot better this time and is much more viable when she does. This can be considered her class drop if you ignore the bias she went against last time. Trevor went to Weller`s, and so will I. This mare knows how to get beat.

5 Show Some Leg draws better here but she is a half leaver. She did lack some room last week in the lane as she tried to go forward, and even lost some chance when the one in front of her was backing into her before the last turn. That sounds like excuses, and it is, but in this type of field, excuses play, when most dont even have an excuse other than they are simply no good.

10 Whistys Paradise takes a class drop, but certainly needs to. Post 10 isnt a big deal to her, as she will close a ton and will take major air if needed. This field is ripe to be taken by one of her kind. I`d give her a minor shot to do that.

1 Dazzle N Delight ships in from Flamboro, off a decent line. She has won at this track before, and mostly in the winter when they soften up to her style and speed. She has a shot if everything goes her way.

4 Little Miss Sporty cant be backed from what I see of her. She simply has poor form and she backed away off a soft trip last time in a gapped out weak field.

7 Shellyssilvermoon seems to have huge gaps between races and that bothers me. She is viable on form, but its suspect as mentioned in the previous sentence. At 5 for 68 the last two seasons, I can go to others on the probability she finds a way to not get there on time either way.

8 Shadys M Three cant back her from what Ive seen of her on track lately. Hunt won one last night. That fills his quota for the month. Pass.

9 Honor Roll  draws bad again and gapped out badly leaving last time. Not sure why Cullen wont put her in a soft condition at Flamboro. Oh, I know why. She won her way out of that. One more zero, and she is back in with those. One zero to go. Coming up. 


2 Mr Irresistible comes back to the class where he was 2nd off the claim, then daylighted them. He tried tougher, but his class didn`t hold up, and he is back in where he might get claimed, but can make money and win races for Moreau. That is the name of the game with him. Big shot. No cinch.

3 Maserati Seelster tried the conditioned ones last time and was trounced. Back in where he belongs, I suppose he is viable. He has never been the most consistent or sound pacer, and making him race over his head gives him a license to regress. I will go against him. He was pretty weak at the wire even when he bottomed these out 2 back.

5 Sky Guy has ok form for these and he wins his share. I could see him because others can easily fail here. I will list him underneath with a shot.

1 Think Again has settled into a class that suits him. He is one of many in here, but the post 1 start will have me going to others. He likes to lead, and leave, and that doesn`t seem like it will work out here. He is 2 for 54 the last two years, and even more if you add his 2yo starts. He is hard to like on top if you don`t think everything will go his way.

4 Sierra Madre is another coming back on very short notice. For a really lame one like him, I cant see how that works out well. He has been racing solid, but they are racehorses and limbs arent made of steel. Pass for me on that angle.

8 Mystic Deuce comes in off 2 qualifiers, the 2nd one fast, but behind a maiden who bombed out last night and an 8 claimer who has been well whipped all fall in every race he has been in.. Nixon had him before he claimed him back I believe. I will watch this time. He is hard to read based on many variables.

6 Watt a Funny Face wired bottom end fillies on Monday night, and it appears that is the style her connections will live and die with. Coming back on short notice is a risky play with one who was spent at the wire Monday. She meets others who will test her for the front. Its a tough call. I will go against her.

7 Lookin Ata Winner beat Max Is Back, who got on the list, and otherwise, has not gotten it done vs these. I have tried him and he has failed every time. I will go elsewhere.

9 Pylater cant go to this one off what I see. I am willing to accept a certain amount of lameness in this class, but this horse is an entire other level. Add the 9 hole to a class rise, and I toss.


2 Imagine Dragon was flat last week, as is her MO. She is good, then great, then so so, never know. She is her sires daughter. She could easily turn it right back around with Zeron taking over the training. I will go to her this week if the price is right. I`d want 5-2 or higher, hopefully higher.

3 Wrangler Magic has tried to wire these the last two and has taken them a long way. No Sandbetweenurtoes here, so, it gets easier to try. If she could take the 2 hole and come out late, she is the one. Will she? I dont know. Shot.

4 Delightful Hill draws slightly better here and picks up McNair, who can wake them up first time he drives them. I can make a case for her to trip out. I did that last week and she didn`t. I will stick with her to make the ticket with a legit shot to take the biggest slice.

7 Ms Mac N Cheese was certainly better last week, but still beaten. she is coming back around, but I`m not sold yet she is back to herself. Fillion doesn`t think so either. He picked who he thinks is better right now. That is good enough for me.

1 Waasmula has bagged another 260k this year, and might even get to 300k if she turns it around next month. Cant knock that. But she has raced hard to get it and now seems flat again. She usually gets long breaks between races when she goes for a long time, and she could be due for another of those. I cant back her the way she has been racing when she hooks a tough bunch like this again.

5 Request for Parole is in way too deep with this bunch for me to try her. Pass.

6 Yagonnakissmeornot is a month off with a vet scratch. Pass for me. I dont like what I see on the page, and we see what Allard is willing to race.

8 D Gs Pesquero is razor sharp, but likely to get dull facing this bunch. I will have to see how she stacks up. I cant see her being dangerous with this bunch as is.


2 Sunset Sara goes first time Moreau off some decent Dayton lines and she was a competitive ISS filly, which can be a tough program that has produced Colors A Virgin and other nice fillies. Top call on the trainer bump.

4 Stylish Beachwhere draws better and has a big shot to score if she remains sound and can leave a bit better. She catches a much softer bunch than last time.
5 Dewar N Soda has been on the improve for a while, and gets back in with overnight mares while finding the middle of the car. There is a lot to like, but a couple in here still look more talented. I list her 2nd.

9 Queenofthejungle draws bad and that really hurts her chances. Another day, a better post.

8 Wasaga Beach didnt like at all what I saw last week. Pass and watch for now. She has issues.

3 Bettys Bay is in deep with this bunch. She wired a soft bunch one level down. Not this time.

10 Docs Diva jumped it off last time and was out of it. Post 10, I like others a lot better. She will have to be seen for a future play.

6 Misty De Vie I think she has hit the wall, and I will pass on her until I see a sign that makes me change my mind on that.

7 Collective Wisdom beat some really soft ones last time by opening up on them. I like a bunch a lot better than her.