Thursday, June 11, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 11, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 win on Bringhometheblue  in the 10th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win Judy The Beauty in the 5th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Katies Beach in the 6th
Best Show Bet:  $8 show on O U Sexy Guy  in the 7th
Best exactor bet:

Longshot exactor bet:none
Best Exotic Bet: :
Worst Bet:  Mass Rail to win. $10

Race 1


DD  $8 ....6,9 with 6

DD  $2 ....6,9 with 7

Overall synopsis: We have seen tons of these types go down lately as heavy chalks in the move from nw1 to nw2. Is this another race like that? Who knows? But, I wont ever play those types on top, so I think you look for viable chance horses for a price who can get it done if the chalk bombs. If she doesn't, she could daylight this bunch.

OH MY MAGIC goes back to CC here after trying a few other drivers. She took her time down quite a bit last time and if the trip works out, she is the most logical one to beat the chalk, if she is going down. Another one who I want a price on, at least 9-2. 

LMC MARSHMELLOW is a fast trotter when she stays at it. She was very green last year, but has been better and more tactical this year. She wired a decent bunch the start before last, then ran at the start last time. Her overall times are in line, and if she can get away good and is a bit lucky with others self destructing, she has a shot. I'd want some price, likely in the 6-1 range to take a chance on here. That should be there if they expectedly hammer my 3rd choice. 

RENEGADE MAGIC needs only to behave to dominate this bunch on talent and speed. But if she gets hot, or acts green again, Saftic might have to be careful with her, and that can result in her showing up late or blowing up all together. Your call. I can't play her and the likely heavy chalk price.

 Play Against:

LADY PING broke her maiden after many tries, but this level is tougher. She is likely to win it at some point, and maybe in a Grassroots and not here. She could win here too. She has one thing she does well: Leave and follow at speed and goes enough to be there. That keeps her in the mix. She meets a few in here with the same type of speed. She will draw a shorter price. I will take that action.

The rest:

LOVIN KARMA---would be on the qualifying list right now if not for an interference break last time. She did run on her own later, a habit she has had for a while. She beat some soft maidens once, then backed up badly the next two times, and flopped at Flamboro. Shall I stop there?

MISSLARISSA---ships in off a solid, medium speed all the way win at Flamboro. Larry Small is noted as a guy who takes his time with young trotters. She is coming along. If she was back in with maidens, I'd consider her. For now, she needs to show more speed and bursts to go with it. I will watch.

SUMTHINTOTALKABOUT---drops out of stakes company, where she was miles above her head. She broke her maiden in good time, and if she could come back to that, she has a shot here if the chalk self destructs. I think , with these types, mostly that they get stung chasing bearcats and come back the worse for wear. The jury is out tonight. I will watch her to see how she performs. She does have three X's on the page  and that is troublesome also.

POINTE OF INQUIRY---draws outside, but she did trot a huge trip at Georgian last time to get 2nd, and was 2nd in this class the last time she tried it. If brother Trevor was driving instead of Wayne, I'd list her top 3. With Wayne, I cannot.

STAY IN TOUCH---hooked a couple of bearcats last time and was well beaten.  She did go 58, and that puts her in the mix here. The likely chalk went in 56 last time and was not used hard to get it. That makes her overmatched this time with many of these. Can't see it.

Race 2



Overall synopsis: If the chalk is legit here, she jogs and the rest have no shot. They don't always perform, but on paper..its a grown woman facing toddler girls.

INVEST IN ART is very well bred and living up to that currently. She only needs to pace back to her last two in this class to dominate this bunch of pretenders. At 1-5, I can't touch her, or go against her. I will use her on the bottom of the double with another I think can take her if she doesn't have it tonight. She performs, she jogs. 

SHESAGAMEMAJOR to me she is the only legit shot at the "almost a lock" chalk. And that is a very minor shot. She probably has enough talent if she could trip out in the deuce and somehow get lucky enough to get out in time and catch the top choice on a bad night. That is a lot to ask and I will only use her in a very minor way on the bottom of the double. She was sick prior to her last start and needed one. She is dangerous enough, but only if the chalk is not legit.

 Play Against:

WANDA BAYAMA looked very lame post parading last time, went a long way on breeding and guts last time, but collapsed at the end. It only gets worse with these types. Better post tonight, short enough price, and she has a budding bearcat to deal with. I will take her action. I could see her missing the ticket entirely.

ARRIVISTA HANOVER could not have gotten a better steer and luckier trip last time. She got away well because the eventual winner ran off the gate, dropped in 3rd and was able to sit while the front end backed the half down, then gunned to park out a challenger, which finished off both those rats, and while all that was happening, AH was gapping out when the speed picked up, but came back to them as they began to stop. She was lucky to get out then, as a lame one beside her was running and backing into the backfield as she did. Once free, she paced okay and should have won off that trip, but was picked up easily by the winner. CC didn't even bother to drive her hard when it was clear she had no shot to hold that one off. Bottom line: when the speed is legit, she is overmatched, and she has likely developed into a very solid Grand River mare once she goes there. 

The rest:

LITTLE MISS SPORTY---gets a better post to work with here, but when she had that 4 starts back she still backed up with these. Based on her trainers performance, I can't back this one unless I see something special. I don't.

LADY SANTANA---two starts with these. She continues to start slow and barely keep up. She had trouble with those types at Flamboro too and her maiden win at London looks like where she fits on the class scale...that is to say...Grand River.

CHEEKIE---the new and improved Cheekie,  with Bourassa having tuned her up, takes another bite at the condition apple after measuring and blowing by ratty 15 condition claimer mares. These are much tougher. She can't be discounted, but her stalk and pounce move wont pass all of these. She will have to get up closer early. I will take a wait and see attitude with her. She also needs 2 more seconds to beat the chalk here. So far, she has not shown that.

JACLYN HANOVER---has proven to me over the winter that she is not A track material, and as we saw at Georgian last time, barely B track material now that she isn't a maiden anymore.

BETTOR OUT WEST---continues to take her time down in small increments, but she meets a few in here who can already go 52 or about that. 9 hole is the final nail in her coffin tonight. Pass.

Race 3


  $4 exactor wheel 9 with 5,8

Overall synopsis: Another where if the chalk is legit, they are all racing for 2nd. I like a couple at a price for that, and will play the race that way. The gap from the chalk to the rest is a big gulf most in here don't look capable of bridging.

ELEGANT SERENITY looks much the best if she duplicates. She appears to be a high end stakes filly meeting many who would have trouble picking up cheques in the lower end of the minor stakes. Unless something goes wrong, she is much the best.

TYMAL FIREITUP trotted a fast mile last time at Georgian, parked out and kept going. That was a big step forward. She would need to go about a second faster to take down the big fave here. I'm not sure she can, but if she produces, she is likely 2nd at decent odds and makes for a nice exactor play, which is how I play it.

LADYONE is one I will give a minor shot to tonight. She had a tough trip last time, and has been on the fringes, not doing much but not racing horrible. She was pointed at some very big fish last year, so there must be something there. She will wake up at some point. It could be tonight in a race where a big price could come in. Minor, realistic shot.

 Play Against:

MASS RAIL has looked terrible her last two as a complete runner, and was handled carefully to qualify back. I'm not sold against many who would beat her if she did stay trotting and go a good mile. She is up against it tonight in my view, Moreau not withstanding.

The rest:

ALFA MERSADIES---two complete runs in her last 3, and she was in deep to begin with against winners. Total pass for me.

YANKS BALL GIRL---is another who drops out of the stakes series she shouldn't have been in in the first place. She is pretty much a maiden who can't race with maidens because she took a B track win and has gotten shares in some stake races to keep her ineligible to the maiden class. Can't see her yet. She is a project horse for Ron Waples Jr. Until I see the class project complete, she gets an incomplete from this teacher.

PINKY THE INTERN---Dustin Jones has come out of the box this year about as cold as you can be. This one is no exception. Will she wake up tonight? Maybe. If she does,  she will beat me. I can't play Jones on anything right now. His ability to train and get results is in question to me right now.

FANCY STEP---broke her maiden at London, but shows little to suggest she has what it takes to make the ticket with these. I have to pass.

ILL STAY HERE---needs a lot more speed to take the better ones in here down. It might be there. Johnson is known as a guy who can get speed out of horses. Longshot chance. I like others better for now. Watching.

Race 4



Overall synopsis: Even by this classes standards, this is less than a stellar bunch. So, basically anything has a shot and nothing is very reliable. I would look for and play a mid range price with a fair shot if they perform as they are capable. Good opening race for the pick 4, as you can get a price. Bad race to pick a single for the win, as there are many who could be the one, and many who will prove out the holes they have in them.

ALEXAS HOPE passed them all at Grand River last time, and she actually takes a price discount to race with these. She could draw the claim here and if she can translate this track into more speed, she can mow them all down again. She is one of many,  but maybe the best of the lot to hang your hat on.

ROCK GROUPIE drew bad last time at Georgian and just went around. She seems to have improved just a bit lately since shipping up and with this very poor bunch, has as good a shot as any. I'd want a price to use her, but I think she can get it done if a few things go her way. Which they must, and that is something I could write on anything in here with a shot.

 Play Against: 


The rest:

KNEE SLAPPER---is just barely sound enough each week to get past the track vet, and is as tough as they come to pace with it, but she can't do enough to take them all down and the lameness is and will continue to add up. Pass for me.

BLUEBIRD CREEK---is a mid pack also ran at the B's a step below this. I can't see her doing anything but trying to be a mid pack cheque getter here for her trainer/owner..who is okay with that because the money goes directly into his pocket and there is no training bill to pay.

DELIRIUM---draws much better, and that helps her cause greatly because she likes the top. She will be somewhat short priced tonight on that angle, and I'm not sold she gets the job done. She has burned me several times before. Pass on her. Her class and grit are in question with me at this point, even at this reduced, soft level. She will have to change my mind.

BLUSHING PROMISE---did absolutely nothing last time, and until I see her compete, she is a total pass for me.

THRILL CHASER---draws the outside, and she needs to be up close and then sit a trip to capitalize. I don't see that trip coming here. Pass. Her ship has sailed in my view.

NOMATTERWHEN--picked up 2nd with these last time and is in the mix. I don't prefer her, only because I am not certain she is consistent enough yet with these types. She could prove me wrong, but I want to see it one more time to show me she can hack it, week in, week out with better than she faced all winter at Pompano. Most of this kind can't when you test them. On the fence, and not playing her either way. Your call. Mine? Sit and watch. 

Race 5


  $10 win on Judy The Beauty

Overall synopsis: Wide open between 4 or 5 of them. Trip will matter and I'd want a price to play anything. My top choice is a price play on the driver change angle and that she showed she can do it last year when given the chance. She is risky too, as many of these are. Another to use many in the pick 4.

JUDY THE BEAUTY won a Grassroots last year, and has had a variety of interesting trips so far. Some of her breaks are likely her own fault, or just young trotter greenness and soreness, and others have to do with poor posts. She is risky. You just don't know which Judy, Judy, Judy will show up. I will take the chance that last year's Judy shows up and take the bigger price. She has a shot. J. Mac is good with these types. He is an upgrade on Jones and McClure. That is my angle. 

ETERNAL QUEST wired a soft bunch of Grassroots foes last time by making speed, rating a bit and then gassing away from them to easily wire them. That wont likely work here, but he has a shot if he gets the right trip. I'd definitely use him on the pick 4, and his form is really good. His tactical gate speed and ratability make him very attractive and hard to go against.

GAME ON HANOVER won this class last time and can do it again. But, she is likely the fave, and I'm not ready to play her as such. Her type lacks consistency for the win at this stage, and she is much better as a place or show bet in my view. Her tactical speed is a plus against many of these

 Play Against:


The rest:

I JASMIN---might interest me, as she is showing signs. But anything Anna Glide is a no play for me. She is one of the worst trainers I can recall in modern times. If this one changes barns, I will be all over it.

K D BELLA---is impossible to like as is. She has speed and talent, and might be a play soon. I will just watch again tonight. She needs to go forward and not just get around now.

WIRE ME CASH---is wildly erratic and now needs to get around clean again. He is hard to play, but also capable of blowing up the tote board when he does. I might toss him on the pick 4 if there is money for that. He could make the ticket....if he behaves. Big if for him.

ROCKY DE VIE---tried it on the engine last time and spit the bit badly. He did the same following the time before. He cannot be liked on any variable at this point.

JA EL STORM---was parked to the half last time, and all done at that point, finishing his back half in 1:02. If he is any good at all, they will protect him tonight, and come late for a minor share. That does me no good.

FLEXCEPTIONAL---won 2 back off a perfect trip that she was ready to take advantage of. The form is now tailing off and the post is another issue tonight. No thanks. Jody jumps off.

KADDY---has big time speed to offer and tried stakes foes, for which she got 2nd in the elim. She likely draws the short price tonight, but I'm not sold she is as good as she appears to be. I can't play against her either, on her apparent class and speed edge on some of these. Pass and watch...closely. 

Race 6


Katies Beach $6 win, $10 place

Overall synopsis: As this class goes, this is about as soft as it can get. Many 2nd time starters and a few who have been in the pack but finding it hard to pass the top prospects. They avoid all of those here, and that gives them a shot. This is very much like a Grand River type race. So, you have to view chances in that light.

KATIES BEACH lucks into a very soft bunch she can handle if she paces back to her previous races and maybe adds a couple of lengths. The time is now for her. She is my top call, but she isn't sparkling either. She will have to leave hard again to gain an edge, and if she can do so, she is right there at the wire. Does she get the prize? Possibly. No less than 5-2 for me to find out. 

TERRORCAM is the wildcard in this bunch. I have been high on her since I first saw her last year. She has matured a bit, and maybe Lasix has also helped her finish better. Tonight she meets the types she should beat, and will be driven accordingly I suspect. I am not sold yet, so I will just watch her closely this one more time. She is the main threat to my top choice.

 Play Against:

TAILWIND HANOVER 0 for 12 and counting, and she doesn't look better each time. Hard to see a race where she gets it done. I'm sure there is one, and maybe it's this soft bunch, but she has completely lost my confidence. 

The rest:

DANCINGATNIGHT---gets the better post, but she simply does not show much to suggest she is anything more than a minor cheque hunter at this point. She has not lived up to her breeding as of yet. Budd is good, I watch for any sign she is clicking in.

PUT YOUR BAD ON---shows nothing to suggest she will ever win at this track. I think Joe H. takes her to Grand River or Georgian next time to see if he can get her sold if she can compete there.

NURSE MOLLY---2nd time starter who doesn't show the finish to go with A track horses yet. Maybe she will at some point. I want to see it at least least something under 30.

INTRIGUED ESCAPE---didn't impress me when she looked awful on the track at London in the winter, and I'm still not impressed that she bombed out at Grand River last time. Tony Kerwood was a big player on this curcuit at some point , but not anymore. He has lousy stock.

CLASSIC COMEDY---makes her 2nd lifetime start after a start to educate and learn the ropes at Grand River. If she had drawn better and showed a bit more, I'd look to her with a shot. I want to see if she can overcome her B track breeding now that she meets A track horses, although many of these are not that impressive.

SO RAVEN---drew bad at Grand River, and does so again here. Can't see any scenario where she is any more than a bit player learning the ropes tonight. She might be a prospect who comes along later in the month. I will watch for that tonight on my first viewing of her.

Race 7


O U Sexy Guy $8 show

 Overall synopsis: A very soft bunch, and that should be enough for Fork to go down the pike at some point and trot away from them. If not, my top choice has some upside from time to time, and Renaud and Walker have a history of bringing in longshots at this track. The rest are tough to stomach for the win. I go with the price and the possible road trouble for Fork.

MASSIVE MUSCLES got parked the mile last time from the 7 hole and kept coming to finish okay enough. The top 2 in that race would have a major shot in here, and this one has a better spot to work with. I will call him on top for a price, hoping for 5-1 or higher....and 10-1 would be great. It's not a deep field, and the favorite isn't bulletproof either.  

FORK needs to leave better to avoid road trouble. He has before and he looked good in his first start back and first for Cass. If he finds road trouble, he is the type who can arrive just a split second too late.  

O U SEXY GUY 2 for 46 the last two years. He is always in the mix with these, but seldom does enough to get by them all. Solid show play tonight in my view, and that is how I will play him. 

 Play Against: 


The rest:

HIDDEN IDENTITY---draws inside and has kept up, even closed a bit in his 2 starts back. If there were to be a driver change, I'd look him over. Otherwise, I don't play Pat Hudon at this track anymore unless the horse is a monster longshot that shows me something.

SCARY GOOD---went to KD to try and rectify his and his trainers pathetic winning record. No can do. He comes back now and its hard to like a horse that can't stomp on KD trotters who mostly cannot leave that track and get a cheque anywhere else.

CAL CHIPS BROTHER---has more than enough talent to be dangerous in this class and higher if he could stay flat. He just can't. Until I see a correction, he is a no play for me. He is just flat out lame.

CREAMPUFF MACDADDY---was a big go last time, and I was on board at a very inflated 20-1. He just had enough road trouble that he had to work too hard and got picked off by one who came off the rail with trot. Tonight, the price shortens, and while he is still viable, he loses appeal to me at that price. Take him or leave him at those odds. I leave.

FANTASTIC FLIRT---is impossible to like with this post in this class. She is hard enough to take when she draws inside and sucks along for a trip and hangs.

TORNADO TIM---made one move last time, then pitched a tent on the turn and called it a night. Post 9, no thanks. Back to the B's.
Race 8



Overall synopsis: Very suspect, hard to pick over group of maidens. Good luck if you think you can do it. I will just list a few I think have a shot, but really, its break time and I wont be playing this likely breaking exhibition. I will just watch to see if I can spot anything for another day.

FLEXY MILLIE is very green but shows flashes of ability and speed. Trotted a back half evenly in 58 last time. She needs to do much more to be win worthy though. Another to watch with a shot...but I won't be betting. 

MAGICAL PUMPKIN Paul Walker must be respected on any young trotter. If I had a gun to my head, this is the one I would play with real money.

LETS BE HONEST took his time down last time while parked the mile in an OSS. If he were to be able to trot back to that mile, he is right there. I'm not sold he does. Pass and watch. Might be a prospect to bet later in the year at a price. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

FEDERAL LADY---ships in with suspect Hoosier lines and is hard to read off those and others. One of many to just watch in here, unless you are truly a degenerate gambler.

GAELIC PRINCESS---is green and coming along, but looked lost out there last time. She needs more experience.

AUNT LOTTIE---stepped forward big time last time. I am not sold she does that back to back. She does...she wins this easy.


FEATURED ILLUSION---might have some promise down the road, but first start back and he is still 0 for 10. Hard to like.

MYLITTLESTARSHINE---made the 3rd quarter move last  time, but flattened out big time in the lane. I have to see her again. That wasn't good. She is young, I cut her some slack for now. I didn't like what I saw.

JAYPORT ON TH EDGE---pass on multiple variables.

Race 9


Tigra Seelster $10 win, place, show

Overall synopsis: Ratty bunch, but my top choice has some decent form and a hot trainer who does well with mares. The rest are hard to like. If she gets the trip, Tigra Seelster should handle this bunch.

TIGRA SEELSTER has always showed some ability and Fellows has done well with here, as he seems to do with many mares. She was parked the mile last time with broken equipment. I can give her a pass on that race. She wired 20's at London. That is more like what she can do. Top call with the early scratch of the favorite. 

GOLDIES MACH has been racing okay at the B's, but she needs to do more with these to be my top choice. I think she is in the mix, but her likely short price makes me avoid her tonight.

ALL CHOCOLATE is one I was high on with Brewer training, but she was dull last time for the new connections, and she has been that way before. Brewer has the key to her. Until he gets her back, I view her as a bit player. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

GOOD LUCK KATHY---in the mix, and could beat these because they are so soft.  I like others better. She has a shot at a price if you want her. I don't.

OH CHUTE---miles over her head

NO TEASING ME---I don't ever bet anything Cory Fuller at WEG, and I'm not starting with this one.

ISLAND VIEW---has a shot on form.  But she hangs weekly and I can't back her. Pass

Race 10


Bringhometheblue  $10 to win

Overall synopsis:

BRINGHOME THEBLUE in a race with so many that are suspect, he has the best form and only got beat by a sharp class dropper horse. You can never really be confident in anything in this class, but he will bring decent odds and I will make him my best bet of the night, hoping for 8-5 or close to it. At 6-5, he becomes a lot less attractive. 

HAIL THE TAXI comes too late every time, and he has not shown he is correcting that. Can't play him for the win, but he should be on the ticket.

 Play Against:


The rest:

THE OPTIMIST---is a terrible gaited horse with speed when he doesn't run over himself. Until I see that corrected, which I doubt tonight, he wont see my money.

DISTANT CAM---Is possible with this bunch, so he is a viable longshot if my top play doesn't show up. I'd use him for sure on the super. I prefer others over him for the win. Capable.

CHOSEN HOMBRE---paced a really fast mile at Rideau last time. Lots of horses can do that. They come here, and they don't have it. Has to be seen. I don't like Rideau shippers who have been there a long time. He will have to show me.

WHIPPET GOOD---no shot. His time has passed.

KINDLY POET---Almost rated him for 3rd. He can step up still the odd night. I just haven't seen enough from him lately to make that call here.

REASONABLE FORCE---goes first off the claim, but has looked awful lately . I respect what Steven Hudon has done with a few he has trained, so I watch this time. This horse has serious lameness issues. I want to see if he has done anything about that. Watching.

OLDFRIENDSKENTUCKY---rat. Let me repeat. Rat.

CRUIZIN K C---10 hole. Another day maybe.


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