Monday, November 30, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 30, 2015

Best Win Bets:  
 IN SECRET in the 9th
CZAR SEELSTER in the 10th
Best Longshot Win Bets: 

SABINE PASS in the 1st
MR YOKASIPPI in the 7th
Best Place Bets:
PISCEAN  in the 2nd
Best Show Bets: 

Worst Win Bets: 
IL SOGNO DREAM in the 8th


Race 1

Overall synopsis: On paper, Sports Warning should daylight this bunch. He has the breeding, he was well regarded and fast last year, has seemingly got his act together now after some bumps on the road, had two races to reach a logical progression to get it done tonight. I don't see it that way, based on what I've seen on the track. So, I go elsewhere looking for a viable alternative.

Probable Favorite: SPORTS WARNING

SABINE PASS  changed hands, and lands with the Dean Nixon outfit. That cannot be underestimated. Nixon is one of those guys who finds issues with horses and fixes them, then races them where they fit and can make money. In his qualifier, he drove straight, sat back out of a very fast 3rd quarter but picked it up at the end to finish going well. If he has any issues, I am confident Nixon got to work on them after that effort. He went the speed Sports Warning did earlier in the fall, and he has the breeding to be legit. He gets the benefit of the doubt here for a solid price. However, he is a maiden facing some winners, although many of those act like maidens while he has gone more than the average maiden this time of year. That being said, I would have to be firm on the price, though. If he happens to take heavy money, say in the 5-2 range, I'd have to pass. He could still be NFG, which is what he was most nights with Stacey. He is 12-1ML. I don't expect to get that, but I would take no less than 5-1, and I'd be looking for 7-1 as fair.

Value Win Price 7-1

DIGGIN IN   I list for 2nd. He is likely to take significant money of that first mile off the claim for Weller, who is pretty good with these types. I am not sold he is legit, but he might not have to be if the fave bombs and the other two I like here don't go forward as I think they might. He was bearing in noticably in the turns, and got outpaced by Sports Warning in the lane last time. He isn't much stock, but he gets my 2nd call by attrition. However if he is 7-2 or less, I think he is very bad value and would only add him to the picks to cover those plays. As a straight win bet, he isn't good value if he goes off as the expected 2nd choice.

GIOVANNI  showed promise at times last winter, but didn't pan out. He was sent South and raced for Rene Allard, but ended up not performing and was laid off. He is now back with Pentland, and his first 3 starts back are okay. Just okay. Pentland had his mother and she was probably the best horse he has even trained, so he knows the family. Maybe he figures this guy out. Maybe. The ones that have beat him, Jack Reacher and On The Rocks, have progressed against better. That is a good reference. He is just good enough, and talented enough that if the logical faves bomb that he could be in the right spot to luck into the win. He starts poorly and he needs to be up closer to win if things go his way. He has a shot. A longshot.

 Play Against:

SPORTS WARNING Here is why I go against him. Strictly the signs I see on the page, and the performance I've seen on the track. He has large gaps between races, and now that he is back, he is fumbly gaited at best, and at times looks like he will flat out blow up, which he did at odds on in the fall of 2014. Can he overcome those, for tonight? Sure he can. But I wouldn't take 2-5 to find out, and that is likely what you are taking. I'd say,  based on his issues, he is bad value at anything lower than 7-5, which will surely be the case. He certainly can beat me here, but I will take my chances.

Anticipated Win Price 2-5


MACHME TO THE MOON --is a 4yo, who has 2 lifetime wins. One at Flamboro, the other at Hanover. Thus, he has not broke his maiden at the A track, and races like a horse that is in a B track race when the A track horses pick up the pace on the last turn. Robinson has not been so bossy since he came back from a positive suspension. I can't see this one doing much unless he is gassed to the top of the tank, which doesn't seem to be the case. His win at Flamboro was an even 2 minute mile where he tripped out and just had enough to beat those. That wont cut it here. Much of this field was ahead of him last time at the wire, even though he was ahead of them at the half. That is not a good reference. At best, he appears to only be able to go in 56. That wont make the ticket here.


BADSTORMANYPORT-broke his maiden last time for new connections, after chasing stakes horses all year that he didn't belong with. He made one move and wore down some really ratty rats. He was also on a line quite a bit most of the way and especially in the last turn. It only gets tougher with this bunch, and its already been a long season for a 2yo who paced in 55 in July to be racing in December. He is hard to like at a short price, even if the favorite bombs out as I suspect. I don't go to him as a viable option tonight, but I keep tabs on him to maybe show up next spring refreshed, straighter and sounder, and see what he is then. 53 over Dover in November tells you he is certainly fast and has the breeding to be better if he is looked after.

The rest:

SILVERADO-is an obvious nutcase if you watch him parade and how Fillion handles him to get him to and off the gate. He has some talent, and if he matures out of that, he might be something. So far, he has not shown he has graduated to that level. He gets a minor shot if he somehow has his act together tonight,  Fillion can put his nose on the gate, blast out of there and try to sit 2nd or 3rd to the big chalk. Unlikely scenario in my view, and with Fillion being as hot as he is, he probably brings 8-1 or less tonight. He is also a maiden who only paced in 58 last time facing nw2 who have paced in 53. Tough spot for him even if he behaves. Pass for me.

REGAL FAME- to his credit, got the job done last time. But the field behind him was weak, even for a maiden, and now he moves up. Even if I concede that he is a legit WEG horse who now has to face winners--which I'm not sold on--he will likely need to adapt to going more and passing horses that will not lay down or need to be handled carefully to get around, which is what he beat last time. Pass tonight for the win. He is ticket worthy though if he is raced easy and picks up pieces.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: Young, mediocre, up and coming, and erratic trotters. The toughest lot to handicap at any track, but also the best place to find value if you can sort them out on a regular basis. You will lose a lot trying, but win with value if and when you can. The best situation is a very clear favorite who has serious danger attached that the public overlooks because the rest are hard to like. This race is exactly that type of situation.

Probable Favorite: COUNTRY PROPHET

PISCEAN  Is by far the fastest winner in this group, and at times this year, when behaving, she looked like a potential bearcat. She even tried some stakes races, but more times than not, she acted badly going to the gate, or blew up in the race. The times she didn't, she was the real deal. Team Baillargeon have had her for a while now, and her last race, she looked very sore behind before she ran. She came right back and qualified like solid gold, with a good back half of 58. She is another that has to be seen parading. In spite of her erratic tendencies, if she is the 2nd betting choice and my 2nd pick is heavy chalk, as I predict, I go to her as the value play, with as much risk attached but better return if she is the one who does it right tonight. 

Value Win Price 7-2

COUNTRY PROPHET  is by a stallion most on this circuit don't know much about, including myself. I had to do some homework there, as there are several of his foals that have shipped to this track lately, including this one.
 PINETUCKY, who didn't race until 4, must have had obvious issues. He was a 110k yearling who got injured at 2, and then needed to swim to stay sound and racing. It appears he had bad feet. That doesn't bode well for offspring who will not be so fortunate to get those luxuries, as most don't. He did get really good once he got there. Pinetucky's sire, PINE CHIP, was known to be crazy fast but very erratic, and many of his foals are the same way. Pinetucky's dam, DUO VAL CAR, was somewhat similar, although not as fast or erratic. From the few I've seen of Pinetucky's foals, they are similar to this siring line. Last time, Country Prophet was bet down off his fast line, but blew up in the turn. He was bearing in noticably in both turns, and got bad in behind just before he ran. He has 3 weeks now since that effort, and its anyones guess if he is better, or no better. Zeron got him around once to win here, and he is likely to be careful with him to try and get him to the tote board safe with a shot. He is likely to bring a very short price again, and he can probably go either way. I'd have to use him in the pick's, but I wouldn't touch him in the win pool. Until he matures and shows his true hand, he could be anything on any given night. His race 2 back, when he won in 56.3 looks good enough to handle this bunch. That gets him bet again. The question is can he duplicate that, and even if he can, will he produce tonight? Post parade is key for one like this.

MACHO MASS  showed significant promise when he first appeared earlier this year. After that initial performance, he went bad quickly and burned a lot of chalk money until the crowd jumped his ship. A trip to Rideau last time to braven him up and get a soft win didn't work out, and now he comes back. He is the type that could pop back into gear, and Henrikson to P Mac is certainly a decent enough angle. He had post 9 last time he was here, and post 3 gives him a better shot to get up closer and involved. If he draws 10-1 or so, he is decent value. His last win came at KD, with the likes of Emmy Hanover in behind him. That doesn't inspire confidence. But neither do many of these. He is probably a good winter horse at this track. On a good night, he wins this. If he does poorly, and gets a barn change, I'd be looking to see him go forward. We shall see.

HALO EFFECT  is a very bad actor if you watch her post parade. If you can get her to the gate and away clean, she has some talent and speed. She is moderately better now than she was a few weeks ago in that respect. These aren't a tough or speedy lot, top to bottom, and there is a lot of risk that a few that could out trot her clean will blow up on their own. She has a longshot chance of winning if she behaves, they blow up, and she can handle the balance. That certainly includes a performance that doesn't have her 25 lengths back at the half, like last time. I'd need in the ballpark of 15-1 or higher to even consider her. Post parade does little with this type. She will cantor and act like a retard almost every time and it will not tip her hand to how she might race. She is a buyer beware type.

 Play Against:

COUNTRY PROPHET   for the win only, I don't like him. He is possible, but bad overall value. I'd have to use him in the picks, but only in a minor, ticket saving way. Reasons above in top selections.

Anticipated Win Price 4-5

The rest:


TATTLE TALE HALL --shows 2 gate breaks in a row at this level which forced him to requalify. He did so, in very slow time, behind a horse known to have trouble keeping it together for an entire mile. He is basically a maiden at this track, having only won at Georgian once. The goal tonight is to get him around clean. He will be watched, but as of now, he is impossible to play as is. He couldn't beat maidens when he had the chance at this track in October. These are nw2.

BOWDIE DE VIE-turned for home with the lead last time in a maiden but got picked up by Arnie, and that is a very bad reference. Arnie is the type that has no interest to pass or finish with decent horses. Up at nw2, from a poor post, this guy is drowning in the deep end of the pool. He doesn't show the overall speed of many of these, and to date, he finishes like a B track horse. A mediocre B track horse. Pass.

EMMY HANOVER- Is a KD shipper for B track trotting specialist Cindy Horner. The thing that concerns me, as it does with most of those, is the progressively and consistent slowing back halves she races in at KD. She has also been off 5 weeks, and that alone would be enough to suggest the only reason she is here is that KD is closed, Georgian hasn't opened and she isn't worth the effort to ship to Rideau, where she probably belongs. She picks up CC for her debut here, and he is likely to race her near the back and try to pick up some money for the connections. For me, pass and toss. 


VICS ROYAL LADY--has yet to show the speed needed for this track, but many who come here in her position don't in the winter. She does win races, and has decent form on arrival. She will have to be seen. Last time, she was odds on at Flamboro, but got beat by one who has stopped to a walk several times at this track in this class. That is a concern. For tonight, she is probably raced easy and tries to adapt, maybe staying in and coming on late for 3rd or 4th. If she can keep up and go in 58 or less, she is one to look at next time. She doesn't leave much, and the one time she did, she got parked the entire mile. Not likely to see a change in strategy first time with better horses.

TOWNLINE MOMMA- ships here with the same owner, but now in the Joe C barn. Her 1 for 48 record is a big red flag, considering the type of rats she faced at Hoosier and how shallow those maiden trotter fields are there. She appears to do one thing very well....leave fast and carry that for a good piece. Her chances tonight rest on her doing that and have anything legit blow up on their own. Last time, she left trailing post 10, got away mid pack, pulled onto live cover, gapped that immediately, and then finished even with the pack. She certainly will blast tonight, but whether she is lucky enough that anything legit blows up....that is an unlikely scenario to play out. She is another who has to be seen. As of now, pass on her.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Competitive bunch of bottom claimers. Could be one of several, and as such, I am not looking to take the obvious top 2 post time faves, as they don't look that much better than the next 3 or 4 in line to justify that.

Probable Favorite: VAL AMERICA

FOREGO THE CIGAR   Has pretty decent form, and drops to the bottom claimer here, one that he has done well at before several times. Joe C operates on a simple premise. To make money, when a horse gets beat, go lower until he finds his level, jam him,  lose him and move on. That is what we will see here. He beat 10's twice at Northville, but a 10 there is about a 6 claimer at Flamboro. So, he is still looking at better than he has beat lately. The top 3 in his last race are far superior to anything he will see in this class, and would all be 1-5 if they were in this race. That gives him a pass for that race. Post 8 at this track, in a shorter field gives him no excuse as a known late closer. Top call, but I want 7-2 at least to find out if I'm right. I think I might even get 9-2 if the rail horse is overbet, which is my suspicion. 

Value Win Price 7-2

MACH TWO POINT SIX  goes for the combo of Carmen and A Mac, and this is the type they do well with together. This horse does not like to work for it, and needs to be on the engine or in the 2 hole to get his picture taken at this level. He should be the leader turning down the backside, and likely follows Velocity Headlight to the top of the lane. He gets out, and gets that trip, he has a legit shot to get far enough ahead of my top choice. I call him for 2nd, because I don't like to rely on getting racing room. But, he is very possible and its only a slight edge to my choice.

 Play Against:

VAL AMERICA got it done last time, as everything went his way and he capitalized. At this point in his advanced aging career, he rarely puts together two good efforts in a row. He is a perfect winter horse for this circuit, and the slowing miles help him keep up. I anticipate he is the post time fave, and that those odds make him poor value. Fillion is red hot and that will only make it worse. I go elsewhere. Likely to make the tri or super, but I can't back him to win. His Sept 22nd effort is more indicative of how he usually races at WEG. 

Anticipated Win Price 8-5

VELOCITY HEADLIGHT goes below the 10 tag he was claimed for off Tackoor, who is a sharp dude and not always the best guy to claim off. Especially with a somewhat lame one like this. Waxman tried him with condition ones first time out, but aborts that aimless mission and looks to move him by pricing him as he does and try and take the purse. I doubt that works this time. He didn't look very sound the night he won and was claimed, and was on his life to beat the one he did, with the balance of the field not competitive. He didn't get claimed in the 8 last week that ended up a no contest.
Trevor is likely to backstretch brush to the top and try to take them all the way. I think he will go most of it, but get picked up by one or two of them, which I will list as my top picks. He could easily be 7-5, and I wouldn't take those odds on him under any circumstances. The 8-1 ML is a head scratcher to say the least, and Rozema picks him on top in the program. He will likely have lots of company on that bandwagon.

Anticipated Win Price 9-5


SMOKIN BEAR-was gapping badly last time at Flamboro to a bunch of lame and non performing 7 claimers. He is 0 for 16 on the year and was having trouble getting a cheque in a 5 claimer at Georgian in the summer. He has major lameness issues on top of all that. Total pass and toss.

DOUBLETROUBLE- I am not one who tosses anything Dean Nixon without a good reason. This guy was in the No contest last time. Before that, he was closing, but as is the case in every start I have seen him on this circuit, he was gapping badly and under heavy urging to keep up. He just doesn't seem to want to be a racehorse anymore. Beating a bunch of suspect non performers at London off a soft half does nothing to change my opinion there. I can't back this one. I suspect if he bombs here, he goes in for 5 back at London. He is no cinch in that race either. The fact that the Adams juice had zero effect on him tells me that his 670k of back class is just that...history, not present.


PROCEED TO PARTY--is the wildcard in this bunch. Lou Eft has a knack for getting this type to be good for a month or so. His last two were fairly good and he brings him here to try and continue that. He owns him himself. If the horse doesn't perform, Lou doesn't get paid . He has no reason to show up unless he thinks he can compete. Allard picks up the drive as A Mac ditches him for Carmen's apparent live one. That means Allard is likely to be aggressive with him. He is more likely looking at 3rd or 4th, but I wouldn't outright toss him, and he will be boxcars. Your call. I'd look him over good parading. My memory of him from last winter is that he isn't the soundest horse at first glance. That was then. In his last at Flamboro, he left for position, sat 3rd, did not pull, had trouble keeping the hole closed in a medium 3rd quarter pace, then stayed with them to the wire but was not going by. That means he is likely better off back in for 5 than tackling a few in here who show to be at least legit 8 claimers. Pass tonight for me.


NO HABLA--is obviously one I've not seen before. He shows up with low earnings the last two years, and as a Maryland bred, probably made the bulk of his money racing soft state breds. Now that he is at the big boys table, he has trouble even beating a nw 5 claimer class. Hoosier is a crazy fast track. His win times mean as much as the 55 some of those 3 claimer Sarnia rats go. Zip. I can't see him doing in this class based on what is on the page. He will have to be seen. For tonight, unless he is vastly improved, I pass and give him little shot. Stewart has had him a long time, so improvement isn't likely. He came with the other live ones, but he is not the star of that barn. He is the 25th man on a 25 man roster type. His apparent lack of gate speed hurts him when he isn't terribly contentious trying to make up ground. Nice cheque getter, but maybe a notch below this group.

Race 4

Overall synopsis: If Iwillnotbemached and Shippen Out are the two ML faves, you know this is a bad bunch and wide open. These are the types of races you can really find value if you watch enough replays. 


NEW MIRACLE  He is Rozema's top pick and I go to him reluctantly, with the expectation of a bit of a price. He is 2nd time lasix for Tyrell, after bleeding bad enough to be distanced before he was put on the program. He went around okay for the first try,  and Mach On The Beach would be barred from the win pool with this bunch. If he can get out good and take another second off that mile, he is the winner here. 12-1 ML is a pipe dream fantasy. I'd be happy with 4-1, but I think 3-1 is more likely. I would expect him to land in the middle of that. If he goes below 5-2, I pass on him, but use him in the pick exotics if I play that.

Value Win Price 7-2

IWILLNOTBEMACHED  was bearing in a bit in the straightaways last time,  which is why he ran off the gate when Phil had to steady him. Can Montini correct whatever issue that was? He can. He might. He might not. He looked good the time before, although he was doing it then also, which is why he couldn't pass the winner, who has since come back to gallop and look horrid. As the likely post time choice, I go elsewhere. He is an obvious must use in the picks though. If he is somehow sounder and straighter, he has an edge on these.

R U MACHIN ME  is hard to like at 1 for 21 and counting. He drew the 10 hole last time and just went around. A Mac has gassed him before and that can work with him. We see Carmen turn this type all the time on a dime.  He could be that one here, and the value play. Or, he could just be a rat who needs to find a cheap claimer or a home at Monticello. He was first time lasix last time, but the 10 hole gave him no chance. At the right price, I'm willing to take a shot he can turn it around. That price would be at least 20-1, closer to 40-1 would be better. I'd toss him on the pick 4 for sure. His two lines at the bottom of the page show that when right, he is among the better ones in this group, which is more about their lack of ability than a statement of his. If they are low odds and he is high odds, he is better value. He has a record of 52 and a piece. Only one other in here can say they have achieved that speed.

 Play Against:

SHIPPEN OUT  1 for 45. 8 hole. Doesn't like to work for it. Likely short price. Overbet on the Fillion angle. Nuff said. Bad value.

Anticipated Win Price 7-2

The rest:


SURE FIRED BET--got the job done last time in a maiden with others behind who are hard to like even in a maiden. He steps up here,  loses Fillion and looks like he is in for a long stay in this class trying to grind out 4th and 5th place cheques until the spring.  At the very least, he needs 2 more seconds he hasn't shown he's got in the tank. Perhaps the 10 claimer for non winners is a better destination for him. Can't see him beating even this suspect bunch.

HOT ROCK STAR-was a badly gapping 4th last time in this class. He is a fast leaver, and that helps him get cheques in a class like this when many look like stoppers at the tote board. Until he isn't another of those, he can't go with the top tier he will face here. He drew the 8 hole at Flamboro last time, so that gives him a pass on the win front.  Not for not even getting a cheque. Wrong track for him in my opinion on the win front. He appears to be a much better B track horse who should stay there and wait for his turn for the big prize he isn't likely to take down here.


BIG PETES STYLE-tried to leave last time, but wasn't getting there and had to take back. You wont find a horse worse in the turns than him,  and he isn't solid in the straightaways either. He does have big time speed when he is rolling and not fumbly. One of these nights, he will get it together and have a good night. Long term, I don't think he lasts long, but there is a boxcar price in his future. Most likely in that phony 10 claimer,  but its not out of the question that he does it with these if they stay this soft. I pass on him again tonight from the 9 hole, dead last start, but I will watch to see some sign of improvement. As has been mentioned, winning at KD did not help his chances to max out money in the maiden at WEG. Moving up to this level so quickly does him no favors, considering his multiple issues.


SANTANNA STAR--comes off the shelf for Pond, who comes off a suspension herself for gassing up this horse. Lets see how potent he is without whatever she was using before. In any event, he is rusty and will need one. He should hit 4th or 5th, but I can't see any better this time around. I am suspicious of what this horse can do racing clean.

ROLLING ROCK---got picked off as he tried to double dip on the maiden pie,  but now moves up. He is progressing, but at this point looks like a mid pack type. I will keep my eye on him. Not sure where he fits or whether he will step up to this level or prove that he has to go elsewhere or enter the conditioned claimer.  Jury is out on him. He got a soft 3rd quarter last time but couldn't seal the deal, and his win came against a wildly gapping bunch that had the legit contenders wiped out by a breaker.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: If class holds, Bags For All goes down the pike and wont be passed by any of these. Unless Muscle Matters suddenly wakes up and returns to past glory, she simply outclasses and outforms this bunch. 

Probable Favorite: BAGS FOR ALL

BAGS FOR ALL  drops from the Preferred, where she wasn't doing all that bad, into a bunch that have never taken down the likes of her kind. She behaves and gets a clean trip, and she wins as the odds on choice. I would say 4-5 is as low as I'd go, but she might go below that. Almost a Pick 4 single in my view, but not quite. She is beatable enough. For the win, you get to see her parade. That is something I'd want to do. For the pick 4, unless you are at the track to see her warm up, you have to take your chances. 

Value Win Price 4-5

MUSCLE MATTERS  was a very nice 2yo with promise. He won big money again at 3, but didn't race much or win a race. He beat the level two down from these handily, but has been a bit player on the way up. He likes to control the race, and that is more difficult now as an aged horse. He might get his way this time, and if he is willing to sit behind Bags For All, or she tries off the pace and he gets a breather to the half, he has a chance to go all the way. Last time, he met a bunch who are borderline Preferred types and he held his own, even closing a shade. Hi form is good and this is a class drop. Bags For All looks like too much pony for him at this stage, but he is not out of the question. He was off 3 weeks between starts last time and comes right back this time. For a speed horse, that is in his favor. Minor shot for the win.

CAL CHIPS BROTHER  is vastly improved off the claim and has always hinted he has the talent to move up the ladder if he was more consistent, sounder and easier to move earlier without the worry he blows up. I could see him being a Preferred horse by February if he continues on this trend. Tonight, he will need some luck and to be at his best. Another with a shot, but he has to take it up another notch. He needs a bit more late speed than he has showed to start taking down some of these bigger fish. They wont lie down Jcs Jake and My Kid Sister will. He has to earn it now. Acid test time for him. His 15-1 ML is curious and Rozema doesn't tab him for his top 7. That is not my take and suggests he goes off a bigger price than I would suspect. He could blow up the tote board.

 Play Against:


The rest:


GRANA PADANNO--has been off a month, sick, draws the 10 hole, moves up and gets JJ as Mario picks another from the stable. No shot.

COVERT OPERATIVE-draws badly again, and is likely near the back again because of it. He now has to make the transition to facing aged horses, and he doesn't look ready for that challenge. He might be a good fit 6 months from now, but he will struggle until then, and likely works down the ladder to get the win and tries to earn his way up. Dropping the bottom two lines on his page are a good start in that direction, and tonight will help further that cause. Pass.


MR LOVER-stays off the list because they charted him an interference break, when he was going to break on his own anyway. Until he shows he can trot a flat mile, he is not viable. If he got sorted out, he has a lot of talent. Larocque is a tricky one, so I can't toss him outright.  Fillion went to the obvious Moreau horse. Not tonight for this one. I will keep watching to see if he turns it back around. If not, he will be a chalk burner all winter. Post parade is everything with this horse. His soreness and lameness issues are easy to spot. 

MYSTERY BET- the wildcard in this bunch. He looks equal parts bearcat at times with crazy speed and bad actor, ticking time bomb that could get beat in a 2 claimer on his bad nights. P Mac did a great job to get him away clean last time and then have him in just the right spot to take down the win in the last step. He is impossible to read until they turn to the gate. The top 2 choices are too much for him at this stage. But, he is eventually going to be at their level. I have to pass on him tonight.


CASH FOR GOLD-was out a long way last time, but kept coming. Relative to these , those were very soft. Vanderkamp handles him carefully to keep him trotting the entire mile, and that wont cut it here. I think he is also ran territory with the top few in here and is looking for minor money. Pass. I will watch him to see how he looks for the likely drop in the next few starts.

BIG RICH-was thought highly of as a 2yo and when he surfaced in the spring. But he was nothing but rat city from the get go, and Moreau doesn't look to have any answers with him either. I find him to be highly overrated, and will watch him to see if there is any hope as he gets prepared to dive down the ranks after he gets thrashed tonight and any night he has to face the likes of these. I'm not certain he isn't a chalk burner at the bottom class. I want to figure that out before he gets there. 

 OLE JACK MAGIC-comes in off a layoff, a weak qualifier and bad form before that. No shot whatsoever tonight, but I will watch to see where he is at. He is the type that comes around eventually when his improving form meets the sweet spot of a soft class and a false fave to inflate his win odds, which it did in the spring.

Race  6

Overall synopsis: Not hard to see the angle in play here. Jcs Jake, who looked super solid since Moreau claimed him, stepped up last time but ran off the gate and was never in it. Moreau knows the remedy for that. Dive him down, and tag him to do it. He might lose him, but he is in the profit position, so he will take the purse and the profit on the claim. Is he going to pull that off? That is the question.

Probable Favorite: J CS JAKE

J CS JAKE   As an aged horse, he has seemed to smooth out the penchant to go off and start making breaks for weeks. But last time, he ran on the gate and was never in contention. The question becomes was that a one time mistake, or is he on the wrong track again? Moreau gives him significant class relief to give him a fair shot. He is one or the other. I will avoid him as I don't want to pay 7-5 to find out which he will be tonight. I'd have to use him in the pick 4 to cover my ass.

Value Win Price 7-5

R CHOOCHOO CHARLIE looked fantastic parading last time, and he is very much a good groove, bad groove horse. He drops in class here, and that might be enough if Jcs Jake bombs and the other inconsistent ones with a shot don't show up. He has a legit longshot chance and I'd certainly use him in the pick 4, and if I got 10-1 or higher, and he warms up and parades okay, I'd take a shot at the win pool with him as well.

BROADWAY PRINCE  was a convincing winner at the bottom last time, but he has trouble beating anything above those, and even took his time to get it done with that bunch. Only if a bunch of legit contenders blow up does he have a shot, and even then, he might get out trotted by a longshot. I pick him 3rd, but that is for the show, not really a win recommendation.

 Play Against:

MY KID SISTER   has missed almost a month off two tough efforts. She has a history of not being durable, and the gap in races is troubling. I anticipate a short price, and I will play against her. Her last win was at 54-1 at the bottom. That is more her type at this point. She tends to hang at the tote board with any better class of horse than the bottom feeders.

Anticipated Win Price 5-2

The rest:


SANTO DOMINGO--rarely wins at the bottom class as it is. These are another level up. Not tonight. 

STAN THE MAN--was well thumped in this class last time he tried them,  and couldn't get it done at the bottom either. Post 9 only makes it worse for him.


LEXUS ROCKY--post really hurts this one, and he is also the type that doesn't hold form well. Bit player tonight is the best outcome. 

TOTALLY RIPPED- appears to be coming back to the horse many of us thought he would be. But post 10 in a race where many want the front and wont give him a hole means he is severely compromised as he moves up off a win where the 2nd place horse was a gapping Keystone Trevor. A lot would have to go his way tonight. I can't bank on any of that happening.


AGGRESSIVE-was not traveling well last  time and until I see an adjustment to that,  I can't touch him. If I do, he has the talent to pop at big odds. I continue to watch for that. He is the type that you can make money on if you stalk him and watch for any sign he is better.

Race  7

Overall synopsis: A lot of ways you can go here, with many having a legit shot to step up and bring a price. Typical of this class, especially when you are devoid of a big class dropper who towers over them on paper. No such horse in here.

Probable Favorite: SOAKING UP THE SUN

MR YOKASSIPPI  has always been impressive to watch when you see him go at the B tracks. That attracted a few claims and some wins on the way to the A track for his first try with new trainer/driver A Mac. He comes in off a 55.3 lifetime mark at London, and a repeat of that, with maybe a second improvement if A Mac can get that out of him, puts him in the winners circle here at a nice price. He paced right through the wire as a daylight winner last time and did not look winded at all. I think there is room for improvement on this one and he could be one who goes up the ladder as the winter progresses.

Value Win Price 15-1

REASONABLE FORCE got the typical
overaggressive drive from Hudon last time and that cost him near the wire. However, he seems very sharp and is likely to get the right trip one of these nights. When he does, if its in with a bunch like this, he is the winner. I can't count on that here, so I list him 2nd at a shorter price than I want to take. I am watching for him to be long at some point, and blow up the board. Steve Hudon has shown that he elicits that type of result because he makes the horse look worse than it is and then the bettors ditch him. Maybe tonight will further that cause.

IDOLE DUHARAS has been popular in the claimers and for good reason as he races hard to win almost every time, and either gets it done or comes close. Carmen nabs him this time and tries to win a purse and keep him before he has to tag him again. It could happen, but I prefer others at a price here. Pick 4 use for sure. He is dangerous if others don't bring their A game, but is more likely on the bottom of the exactor or triactor ticket.

 LEAFS AND WINGS pops every now and then. He is the typical Rambaran. This is his crowd, but he would have to have the right trip and hit the line at exactly the right time. That is a lot to count on, and I wont. I will pass on him for the win and call him 3rd or 4th in the pack. He will have to work for it here, and that is not something he likes to do for the win. 

 Play Against:

SOAKING UP THE SUN  Moreau can't make them all go. This one is a month off, and has serious lameness issues on his best day. At the likely short price, and the class drop that brings false hope, I go against him and think he is a candidate to miss the Super altogether. A must see to post parade. Who knows what he is like coming into this race? He was bearing out really bad in the lane in his last start. Has he fixed that, or is he sucker money tonight? I have to see him to make my call. As of now, I go against him.

The rest:


DREYDL HANOVER --almost never wins, and his last was horrific. There are too many contenders here to think he has any shot at the win. 


WASHINGTON HANOVER--has cheap B track speed which has made him a good buck at those, at times. Other times, he gets hung or ends up first up and stops. I wont back him here, but he has just enough ability to be dangerous at a big price.

UF BETTORS HANOVER-is one that is hard to get a read on. Scott West has shipped here with a few, now that Vernon is closed and Saratoga will be as well shortly. His charge Saturday night raced a lot better than he used to at this track, and this one would have to improve on what he did last time at Vernon. I wont back him tonight for the win, but I'd be tempted to put him in the pick 4 on the chance that he is live. He is a decent closer if there is a battle on the front end. He appears very trip dependent to win a race , which is probably why he is 20 times 2nd or 3rd out of 40 starts this year.


SWORD OFTHE SPIRIT-has been here before. He was an OSS type before going to the States. He shows back up under lease to Dustin Jones--from Dayton--where he left from the rail, got the perfect trip with a clear lane to swoop but hung a shade. That was a very fast mile, but that is how they go at Dayton, which is now closed. He has been off a month. I will watch to see where he is at and hope to see a catch driver when he is ready to pop.

Race  8

Overall synopsis: I am 100% against Il Sogno Dream here. Last time was just a lucky break for him. 5 horse field with the scratch of the only real threat, and the others either couldn't stay flat, or were so awful that they could barely get around the track. That only left Burnin Money to beat, which was easy enough. Its a mirage. I will state my case on the horse in my comments.

Probable Favorite: IL SOGNO DREAM

WILD AND CRAZY GUY  the current now horse. He meets the test tonight if he steps up. At least he seems to be 100% now. I wouldn't have said that in the spring, even when he was winning on talent and guts alone.

Value Win Price 10-1

FLANAGAN MEMORY   the most logical way to go if you don't like the chalk, which I don't. But his big late closing style and the bad post just make it hard for me to back a horse that sometimes just shows up lame without warning. He is very viable if he is right, the trip works out and he is within range. A lot of ifs for a horse that probably takes 3-1 action. Certainly if I play the exactor, he is in that box. Straight up for win, I cannot justify him unless he somehow goes off 5-1 or higher. I don't see that happening.

 Play Against:

IL SOGNO DREAM  first he bombed at the chalk, with seemingly no trot at all in his first start for Puddy. Five days later, he made the winning move and gutted it out, under heavy urging. Heavy urging is a theme with this one. Trevor pounds on him just about every step after the half, and he needs it. He still hangs at times, and looks like a tired horse who gave his all to take down the biggest fish this year. That has him worn out. Pass for me off the mirage that flatters him from last time. 

Anticipated Win Price 8-5

The rest:


EXEMPLAR-is terrible right now, and even two steps down I'd have a hard time backing him. Total pass for me. Until I see him behave, show some soundness and clean consistent trotting, I will not be boarding his ship.

SLIP INTO GLIDE--likes to bounce around this class and the one below, pick up money, or no money, then drop and pop the big cheque into the owners accounts. Mario chose against him here. Nuff said. Another day. That day isn't today. He is over his head in here. Best case scenario he gets 5th money, and they write the class below this next week and let him in with ones he can go with.

 HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS- as per the program, he has zero shot in here. He is here to take money off his card for a try at the lowest class he can drop to asap.


MURMUR HANOVER--takes the monumental class rise, but he is not out of the question. He has the talent to pick up pieces, leave enough to be in the position to do so, and his last line is as good as any of these are racing. If I play a late pick 4, he is on that ticket.


BURNIN MONEY-has very good form, but appears to be a cut below these, especially when the field isn't short and there are better ones in it. I will pass on him tonight and watch to make sure he is still good when he gets to drop down a few classes. He doesn't always hold the form on the way down, as past history has shown. 

FEARLESS MAN-has two big wins on his card at the bottom of the page against these back in the spring when he was on top of his game. That was then. He is out for a trip tonight, and again next time, then to drop back to where he might do, pop if he is okay, and then work his way back up. I'm sure Zeron knows he is better off when they slow down a bit and the fields aren't deep. He is pointing him to cashing in this winter and tonight is step one in that venture. As of yet, when you think about true legit FFA types, he is not one of those. Unfortunately, he has to start at that level because he made money before he went sour. 

Race  9

Overall synopsis: The likely heavy fave looks to come right back and double up on this bunch. If he repeats what he did last time, he does that. There are others who could reverse form and challenge him. They would have to. Tough call. I will call him for 2nd, only because I don't like playing horses I don't know well who race great once and then get hammered on that variable. He seems legit though.

Probable Favorite: MUSICAL RHYTHM

IN SECRET   has always seemed to be a disappointment. But here he is, end of the 3 year old year, and maybe he comes on late, like many of Henrikson's do. Exempler, Adversity, etc, etc. Last time he was first up and finished poorly again. That was two weeks ago, and he comes back first time lasix. This isn't a deep group and he retains CC. If the favorite isn't as good as last time, he has a shot to take him at a decent price. I will take that chance on him if the price is right. 

Value Win Price 6-1

MUSICAL RHYTHM  certainly looks like the best one in here. They paid a good buck for him in Harrisburg, and he delivered first time out. I'm not sold he can come right back, so I will call him to get picked up at the wire. 54.3 is certainly something to be respected. Not all of them can do it back to back as young trotters. He has a whack of X's on the page, and that suggests he is not to be trusted just yet.

KADABRASNEWRECRUIT had nothing last time as the chalk to the likely heavy chalk he meets here again. He seems to be good, bad, good, bad. I think he can be better, but can't back him for the win with a few legit ones who show more consistently than he does. He might not have the overall speed that the best ones in here have. He hasn't showed it yet anyway.

 Play Against:


The rest:


DUH BUBBEES --off 6 weeks and his last 2 were poor, after racing on short notice when he won the grassroots final. Not tonight for sure. He will have to be seen. He might have been hurt.

JUDY THE BEAUTY--seems to be tailing off and she now can't rely on facing nw types and OSS restricted fillies. Bit player at best from this post. She hasn't finished well lately even when the trip has said she should.

SHEGUINDAH--same as the above one, and a terrible post on top of that for one that needs the front.

JAYPORT ALL MUSCLE---gazillion miles over his head for the win.


JUANITAS FURY--like many of Bax's trotters, a bearcat at 2, mediocre and spotty at 3, but shows the odd sign she will turn it around. That could be tonight. I don't think it is, yet, but I wouldn't toss her either. If you are going to look for a price in your pick 4 and have room, I'd use her.


ALL B OVER--conditioned claimer ships from Hoosier and is first time Joe C. Not sure what to expect. Same angle as Latoka from last year, but he started out against soft ones. Not the case here. Watch and see, but not going to use at all in this spot.

Race  10

Overall synopsis: As with most times in this class, tough call. I am not sold on the likely fave, based on what I saw from him last time, but I am not completely against him either. I will go for a couple of longshot chances, but that is what they are. They could both bomb out also.


CZAR SEELSTER  has been here before, and beaten far better. He was out first up a very long time last time at Flamboro (the chart line is incorrect, he was parked from the quarter to the wire), and for a horse that doesn't like the tight turns, he hung in very well. For whatever reason, maybe being tired, he made a late break. I will give him a pass on that, as he does that from time to time. The big track has always stepped him up, and he has a big late brush to use here. Top call for a price. 

Value Win Price 10-1

BROADIES SONG    ships from Pocono. he was a pretty legit horse on this circuit at one time, but maybe has seen better days. That being said, most of this field can be described that way. He is in the mix. He is tight enough and fast enough. Is he sound enough and can he avoid making a break at high speed? I'd watch him closely parading to see what he looks like. 

THEPANINSULAHOTEL was bearing in noticably in the first turn and going into it last time, but gutted it out for 2nd, behind a horse that never wins at this track. I see a similar type of scenario here and a similar result, with a probably short price attached. He could prove me wrong, but he is a low percentage winner over time anyway. I will take my chances against him. Post 8 is just enough of a factor to cost him a length he might need at the wire.

INTENDED STYLE-was really good when Carmen claimed him and was winning lots of races, moving up the class ladder. He tailed off, and last time seemed to be moving back in the right direction. He is another who is in the mix, but his last brings the price down this time. I go to others ahead of him for that.

 Play Against:


The rest:

WIN ONE SOON-tries to make the transition from B track Grassroots horse to conditioned aged WEG horse. He is still the same type. Mid pack stalker. The problem is the fields are deeper in front of him and he can't pass these. I will pass on him. He would need a huge hole to open up in the lane for him to beat all of these. That will happen once this winter. I wont bank on  it tonight.

SAULSBROOK PEACH--has one big move and that's it. His wins, which are few and far between, come at the B tracks. No thanks.


CAMS TUX-very steppy lame the entire way, for a trainer who has been a very low percentage winner over his entire career. This one is hard to back based on what you see from him on the track. Post doesn't help him as he has to be steadied leaving most nights to avoid a gate or early break. That hole is mostly too big to be dug out of when all is said and done,  which is why he is 1 for 33 the last two season. Bottom of the super type.

SURPRISE HANOVER--bad post, very low percentage winner. No shot.


LIVE AND LEARN--he is very hard to like, and equally hard to discard. He pops up at boxcars from time to time and looks solid, then reverts back to his hanging ways. Which one tonight?  No clue. I like others, so I will play the percentages that he is the hanger on this evening.