Overall Bets: $ $
Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet: $10 on Glamour Seelster in the 6th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Missevil in the 4th
Best Place Bet:$10 on Southwind Luna in the 2nd
Best Show Bet: $10 on Thoughtful Leader in the 3rd
Worst Win Bet: $20 on Southwind Ginger in the 6th
Bets
Race 1 $10 show on Southwind Shania
Race 2 $10 place on Southwind Luna
Race 3 $10 win and show on Thoughtful Leader
Race 4 $10wps on Missevil
Race 5
Race 6 $10wps on Glamour Seelster
Race 7
Race 8 $10wps on M G Jade
Race 9 $6 exa box, Mach Magic, Gray Shadow, Voodoo Charm.
Race 10
LEGEND
MS---minor shot
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watching for a future play
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Race 1
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: SOUTHWIND SHANIA
SOUTHWIND SHANIA looks primed and ready to score here. Coleman had Sportswriter's ready to go early last year and I think she has figured out to get the money from them before the other ones catch up. More of the same here.
BOOZER BRUISER half sister to Cheyenne Reider gets my attention first time out for Lou Eft, who usually has them ready to rock. Price makes her viable.
IM IN LUV Is the one Jody goes to and I could see her, but I went to my top choices as better price and lively early options. Crapshoot with these types. Not sure what to make of her.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
CASIMIR PUCKER UP---brushed home off a very slow half. That wont cut it here. Watching, but on breeding she is well short of this bunch.
BETTY HILL---looks well prepped and in the mix, but another who will have to show she can go fast when she goes race speed to the half.
BOHEMIAN DELIGHT---is hard to read because she hooked a potential bearcat in her last schooler. She wouldn't shock me, but I will pass and watch for now.
FREE SHOW---blasted home off very soft splits to just edge my top choice. If Jody had taken her I would have rated her top 3. He rarely picks against Menary.
MATTJESTIC TEMPO---probably just out to make sure she goes forward and might hit the ticket. Could be a nice OSS filly early. I will watch her.
L A DELIGHT---tough post and I don't expect much from her tonight.
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Race 2
Overall synopsis:If my top choice arrives sound and there is nothing wrong with her, she looks the best to me.
Probable Favorite: BADLANDS DELIGHT
SOUTHWIND LUNA drops into a claimer and Hall dares others to lay off. Its a smart play with the allowance and if there is nothing wrong with her, she is likely the best here.
BADLANDS DELIGHT tripped out at Georgian and outstaggered them home last time. A couple in here wont be so easy to beat. Call for 2nd.
FROSTY DELIGHT has been horrific off the claim. These are totally awful, so that would be the only reason I use her for 3rd. Hopefully Fletcher has sorted her out. She looked awful most nights for team B. Bad claim. These are pretty bad anyway.
Play Against:
TON OF LUCK locked on a line and that has not changed. Tough to win when you are marginal to start with and the driver can't drive you.
The rest:
A FELLAS SECRET---looks horrible every time on the track. No thanks.
ON THE RISE---Not with these.
ELECTRICINTENSIONS---Also, not with these.
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Race 3
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: STEEL RESERVE
THOUGHTFUL LEADER my top call. He is learning, but still hasn't figured it all out yet. First up last time into a fast pace didn't do him any favors. He has burned enough chalk money now, that it is time to step up. Pretty soft bunch and he likely only needs to take down the chalk, my 2nd choice.
STEEL RESERVE looked solid on the track last time and was clearly underbet at 18-1. This time, the reverse. I like his chances, but not his probable odds. I go to the next option to beat him. It's a horse race, could be either of the two.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
UP THE ALLEY---coming along, but still does not travel right and needs some babying. I am watching to see if that is improving. So far, it has not. Talent is there.
TOP NOTCH LADY AS---shows little to suggest she can compete for even a cheque.
WHAT A PEACH---coming along, but a few in here are much farther ahead. Maybe in a couple of weeks I look this one over closer.
HALO EFFECT---has talent, but is almost a basket case in the post parade. I wont touch her until I see some improvement there.
MURS SON---has not stepped up and I think is better off at the B tracks.
STOKED---kept it together last time. If she does that again, I might be on board. Respect for Lyle M. He is a pretty good horseman who takes his time with these types.
TORTOLA SUNRISE---bad post plus Per equals pass for me.
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Race 4
Probable Favorite: ALOT OF SENSE
MISSEVIL draws bad, but she is coming sharp and a sharp Missevil would blitz this sad lot. I will take my chances.
MAKE WAY is flat, but showing signs of a turnaround. She wouldn't shock me, but she finds it hard to finish at this track. Her time will come again.
CHALEURS FANTASY ships and tries to find a level. I don't know her, but she seems about as good as most of these. One time around and we will see what she's got.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
THRILL CHASER---is tailing off badly and the bad trips are piling up. I can't use her currently with what I see.
DELIRIUM---cant seem to get it done. Maybe she will, but I'd like her more at a B track where she wouldn't be required to finish as well.
ABSOLOOTLY HOT ---very hot and insistent on the lead. That wont work at this track when she is about 5th best on a good night.
ALOT OF SENSE ---seems to be tailing off lately, but is capable enough with this soft bunch. I went elsewhere, but I'd use her in the pick 4.
BYE BYE MICHELLE ---wins when she completely trips out. That isn't as likely from this post. Pass on her tonight.
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Race 5
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: TWIN B THONG
TWIN B THONG if she comes back to that qualifier, she handles this bunch.
MACH MAJORETTE has posted 2 solid qualifiers, the second better than the first. If she can take another 2 seconds off that mile, she has a shot at my top pick. I could go either way on the two of them and would use both in the pick 4.
KAYS SHADOW paced a big back half all by herself last time. This time, she will have company. We will see how she stacks up. I think her short price will make me look elsewhere for now.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
not rated
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Race 6
Overall
synopsis:
Probable Favorite: SOUTHWIND GINGER
GLAMOUR SEELSTER was solid in her first start and these aren't that much tougher. I don't love her, but if the chalk gets hammered, the price will be right. I'd want 7-2 and that should be there. At that price, my best bet of the night.
AINSLEYNOELLE daylighted a terrible bunch at Georgian on Sunday, but these are much tougher. She will have to finish better at this track. I am on the fence on whether she will. Her breeding suggests she wont.
SHOW SOME LEG might be more dangerous if she could leave a step. Until she shows she can, I will give her 3rd call here.
Play Against:
SOUTHWIND GINGER the heavy chalk dives into this soft condition. She looks tough, but I think she can go down. Those stakes bearcats can take something out of you.
The rest:
not rated.
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Race 7
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: CAPELA
CAPELA should handle this bunch if she shows up. The contenders look like pretenders to me.
LITTLE MISS SPORTY is coming along. She looks good to be in the mix at a big price. She needs to leave more to make me choose her on top. So far, I have not seen that.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
FLOAT ON BY---continues to disappoint. I have had enough of her and look elsewhere until I see a sign she is anything but a used up 2yo hanging around now.
ARTIAWITCHTOYOU ---was awful last time and she showed signs of that before she went on the run. I am not sold that she doesn't go directly backwards.
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Race 8
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: KENDAL GUCCI
M G JADE my top call on the Carmen/Mach Three angle. He can step these types up and the price might be there.
MILEYS BIG WORLD hard to read her form, but if sound and healthy, she'd likely handle this group pretty easily. She was off a long time before, so I am suspicious.
KENDAL GUCCI dives back into a straight claimer and has a shot. However, she had trouble with a few last time who are exactly that. Call for 3rd before this is really a soft bunch.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
ANDRO MADI---goes first time Johnson and steps up. She is a noted stopper and very much likes to lead. I'm not certain she can make that work here.
RIVER RISING---looks quite a bit over her head here to me. Sarnia shippers who don't win generally don't step up on this track.
PATHTODOVER---back in a claimer where she belongs. She has a shot if the trip works out. I like others better.
C C CALLMEKELLY---check the win record. Ok. Thanks. Bye. Have a nice day.
KIKISKISSINKOUSIN ---is flat right now, but capable if she turns it around, which she has before. Post hurts her here.
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Race 9
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: GRAY SHADOW
MACH MAGIC has had two starts for experience now, both not great experiences, as she has had tough trips. I suspect her breeding and fitness kicks in and she takes this bunch.
GRAY SHADOW is the logical play here as she gets back in with maidens while she makes her debut here. I prefer my top choice at the price. This one will have to be seen.
VOODOO CHARM paced well first time over this track with two solid back to back quarters to close it out. A couple in here seem to be tough customers. I like her for a price, but she will have to step up. Fillion is hot, and when he gets on a roll, he wins lots of races like this.
Play Against:
KATIES BEACH doesn't appear to me to be a WEG mare. I think when she head to Georgian she will be a lot more dangerous.
The rest:
not rated ---mostly also rans at this point.
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Race 10
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite:THE OPTIMIST
SWEET COLT OF MINE I call in the upset for Brewer. He has really improved and now he needs to go one step further with a few better ones. I'm looking for 15-1 here.
GRANDE SEELSTER looks for the drop and pop. I think its possible, but he is in danger of getting picked off down the lane if he doesn't start showing more grit when it counts. He has a shot.
THE OPTIMIST goes first time Adams, but Goodwin retains ownership. I would say the frustration with this knee knocker is at the high level now. I'm not sold this change is enough. He still has to pace flat and fast around the turns. We shall see.
Play Against:
HAIL THE TAXI until he can leave better, he doesn't show enough finish to beat more than a few of these.
The rest:
DREYDL HANOVER---never wins. Nuff said.
LIVE AND LEARN--- check the win record. Pass.
CHOSEN HOMBRE--- in the mix and has a longshot chance, but he just doesn't do enough to win at this track in my opinion. Better off at the B tracks.
WHOSURPAL---first time lasix, but he really needs it. I doubt its enough.
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