Saturday, June 13, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 13, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 on Nirvana Seelster in the 5th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Beach Gal in the 10th
Best Place Bet: $10 on Sassa Hanover in the 3rd
Best Show Bet:  $10 on Moonlit Dance  in the 4th

Worst Win Bet:   $10 on Ellis Park in the 7th
Race 1 $5 DD on Mr Dennis,The Rev onto WiggleitJiggleit
Race 2  $4 win on MaxDaddy BlueChip
Race 3 $10 win, place on Sassa Hanover.$2 exa pw 5 with
Race 4 $4 exactor box, 3-7-8, $10 show on Moonlit Dance
Race 5 $10 win on Nirvana Seelster ,$2 exa pw 2 with 1,3,8
Race 6  $10 win on Go Daddy Go
Race 7  
Race 8  
Race 9 $10 win on Yagonnakissmeornot
Race 10  $10 win on Beach Gal
Race 11 $10 win on Bettorever 
Race 12 $10 win on Buckaroo
Race 13

Race 1

Overall synopsis: I think the front end speed will carry and hold here. So, I go to Mr. Dennis as the one who is that speed. I want odds though. I'd need 7-2 to play him. I think that is reasonable, considering who one of the others is.

MR DENNIS has been pretty good in his last two in this class, last time trying to wire them but picked up by a horse with some class who is getting sharp again and was a bit below where he normally races. He beat the balance though, and his front end mission likely continues tonight. He isn't my most solid top pick tonight, but he has a reasonable shot if he can again be rated to save a bit for the end. He has settled in to a nice 1:51 speed, but likely needs to get that one more second to take these all the way to the rack and slam dunk them. 

THE REV turned it around last time and now drops two levels. Post 10 hurts him, but Tetrick helps him. He is tough to play in that he is very trip dependent and sometimes just decides to give up. He is a longshot chance here for me. I'd need 10-1 to even consider him for the win, but he is a double toss on for sure. 

SOUTHWIND AMAZON raced fairly solid for Adams last time, his first crack at this circuit under his care. He was not bad at 3 when he raced here and he has a shot. He rises up just a bit, and these aren't that soft. I will avoid his likely short price for the win and call him for 3rd. McNair sticks with him over The Rev, which isn't surprising, as I suspect he isn't very popular with drivers who like to win races.

 Play Against:


The rest:

YUCATAN---continues to pace around 52 and mid pack. That wont cut it with these. He needs to drop to the bottom level. I suspect that happens soon. I will be watching him to see if he is viable with those when that happens. Not tonight for him.

LEAFS AND WINGS---pops up every now and then and beats these. Campbell is a plus, but there are too many in here that look better than him. He is another who could use a class drop. This class is much tougher in the summer than the winter. Tougher for him for sure.

MACHAL JORDAN---appears very sharp and simply cruised and crushed the bottom conditioned ones last time, one of which came right back and scored in 51. He has a shot in here, but I like a few better. If I had rated a top 4, he would have been that one, and a close call for 3rd. Mayotte hurts the cause when the class gets tougher. That is the tie break for me.

BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL---doesn't win even when he has a great shot to do so. I can't play him because of that unless he changes that tone. Pass.

MONTE CRISTO---Boomboom Ballykeel without the talent and the lifetime big bankroll. If he makes it down to the bottom condition, I will look him over then. No thanks for now.

PRINCE CLYDE---was raced over his head last time, but drops back to the mid level here. He has a shot, because he does have talent and on a good day can take these. I like others, but he is dangerous enough. Your call. I go elsewhere. He needs to step up. These aren't as soft as the ones at the bottom he was on his life to beat.

URBANITE HANOVER---very win shy type since he was 3, and now off a while. I have to pass this time for sure. Lets see what he shows for a harder look at him next time.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: Wiggle It Jiggleit should dominate this bunch. My 2nd choice has a shot. A very minor shot. He is the wildcard. We can't know how good he actually is yet. He could be a total bomb anyway.

WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT much the best if he shows up and nothing goes wrong. He missed the better ones in this split and will have to tackle them next week. For now, he performs, he jogs. He was under wraps in Indiana, so there is more in the tank. We all know that. This week there doesn't need to be, next week there certainly will. It will likely take 47 to win the final and you will have to work for it. He will have his mettle tested then. Not tonight. 

MAXDADDY BLUE CHIP did not look good on the track last time at any point. He defines bumpy gaited and is very much the typical Sportswriter. He does have speed and talent though. And when you are at this level and get one shot at this type of purse, you do what it takes to get that horse right. So, you can be sure whatever ails him has been attempted to be corrected. If he were "good to go" he likely could give my top choice a run for his money at a price. I will play him on that angle. I still think he is 2nd best if he is sorted out. We shall see.

HURRIKANE ALI couldn't keep up to or fend off Artspeak, and there is no shame in that. Otherwise he fits with these, but draws the tough straw here. His last quarter speed when he isn't gutted early is very impressive. I suspect he is coming late to try and make the final. I don't know him at all, so I will watch him to see what he's got. He is possible under the right circumstances, but more likely 2nd or 3rd. He could easily be the bottom of the exactor. Having Gingras aboard helps his cause.

 Play Against:


The rest:

DRACHAN HANOVER---was hard used to make the top last time and tried to go all the way but gave it up mid lane. It doesn't get easier with this bunch, only harder. I think he should stick to the OSS program. He is chasing money he can't make.

TRADING UP---came on for 3rd last time but was no threat to the winner and let the pocket sitter get by him too. He is an outsider here, and would need a lot to go right for him to make the final. He could, but I think he races in the consolation next week, and will have a shot  in that. I will watch him closer to see if he is a viable play in that race.

ARQUE HANOVER---has not shown me he is on the level of many of these. Until he does, he doesn't see my money. He might pick up cheques in these types of races all year, like he did in the Rooney final. That doesn't help a win bettor make money.

YANKEE BOUNTY---tried it first up last time at Pocono and was in backpeddle mode soon after. He is a nice PASS horse. These are the best out there. No thanks.

PHYSICALLYINCLINED---Is a very nice horse, maybe even the Gold final winner in October. These are beyond his reach in my view. Can't see it.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Everybody will be all over the world champion mare here. She is tough to beat, but I think she can be taken. I play for the next logical choice to reverse her suspect race last time and achieve the potential she showed at times last year. I think she is the one to beat come fall, and maybe she starts to justify that claim here. Maybe. I could be wrong. I tried that twice last year and she wasn't good enough to fend off the champion.

SASSA HANOVER looked to be on cruise control at Yonkers last time but didn't have any response when the winner came at her. I can only think she wasn't right. Burke is very good at correcting that, as we have seen this week and before. I will take her price and make her a longshot play in here. I maintain she will be on the level of the fave here at some point. 

WRANGLER MAGIC was very live last time and trapped in the pocket by a sharp driver who kept her pinned on purpose. If she had gotten out in time she might have been the winner. She seems to be peaking and wouldn't shock me if she won this at a very big price. But I will use her for 2nd on the bottom of my value exactor to beat out the chalk. She has impressed me. Now she meets the toughest test of her life.

THE SHOW RETURNS is the best bred mare on the program, and has showed flashes of that at times. She has not showed she can go with the top 2 faves here, and even the third likely fave has shown more than her lately. She needs to step up. I am on the fence on her and rate her back of those for now. She might just pop off one day. We shall see. I think she is still overmatched at this point.

 Play Against:

JK SHESALADY we all know what she can do. She will be 1-9 if you want to play her. They all get beat sooner or later. I think she is about at that point. Maybe not tonight, but she could be. My top choice seems to have enough talent to do that, just hasn't done it yet. I call that tonight. I rate this gal as a play against, but certainly she is live for 2nd or 3rd. Bad win play in my view. I go against her.

The rest:

SERIOUS FILLY---is well bred but hasn't lived up to that hype yet. She will have to show me she can. I think she is in very deep with the top half of this field.

BETTOR BE STEPPIN---has been solid in NYSS this year, but had trouble with some of these last year. I have to pass until she shows me she can go with them when it counts.

SINGLE ME---hunting for a spot in the final, and that means not racing for the win. Pass.

TESSA SEELSTER---way over her head in here. Pass.

BEDROOMCONFESSIONS---not from this post with these. She will have to show she belongs. I don't think she does.

Race 4

MOONLIT DANCE blasted from the pack last time like there was a firecracker under ass. While those were soft relative to this bunch, she has been good with far better already. If she is sound, which is an issue for her, she can certainly go with these. This is a much softer division than she could have landed, and I will make her my top call. It wont be easy.

SOLAR SISTER has come out of the box this year ready to dominate. She leaves well, but not enough to clear before the turn. As the heat gets tougher up the ladder, she might pay for that as she meets tougher who can come to her at the end. McNair pinned in her only legit threat last time, and I suspect she is vulnerable at this point up in this tax bracket. However, she is still legit to be there, and may get it done anyway. I call her for 2nd.

GIRLOFYOURDREAMS I rate her 3rd with a longshot chance. These very connections brought Table Talk into this race last year and she blew up the tote board in her elim. They seem to rate their stock well. I give her a shot, but like my top 2 much better. Bit player who could upset the apple cart. She will have to do a lot more obviously. I'm watching with interest.

 Play Against:

HAPPINESS got parked early last time and gave it up late as the chalk. She has not showed me yet she justifies the type of tote play she will get tonight. She is possible, but I like others better. Being short on overall experience combined with not beating anything better than my top 2 choices have makes me play against her. I am not sold yet. She will have to sell me that she is one of these.

The rest:

STORM POINT---doesn't quite seem up to this bunch. I'd need to see more to play her with confidence. Burke can't be underestimated. But he doesn't win every race and dances every dance, even if horse might be better off staying local. Gingras took the other entry, and that is no shock. Pass on this one.

DOCTOR TERROR---meets a pretty tough bunch here. I don't think she is that kind of stock. Solid PASS mare and might be a good aged one. Not with these though.

BETTER SAID---does not look ready to compete with these. Maybe she will one day. She is about a month behind some of these, and her class is still in question as well. Pass until she shows me otherwise.

MOMAS GOT A GUN---full sister to last years Jug Winner, who didn't win anything until then and hasn't won much since,  she appears about the same to me and not up to these. Pass. She looks like she is shooting blanks at this bunch.

DELI BEACH---has some upside but is maybe another who will be a comer in a month or two. Post doesn't help her here. She is looking to make the final, not win unless she lucks into it at boxcars. Pass on that.

LINDYS OLD LADY---post 10 and she would be marginal from post 4. Pass here.
Race 5

NIRVANA SEELSTER left huge last time from the 10 hole and came back out in the lane to stay for 4th. From this better post, he is pretty solid in here. My best bet of the night for a likely price, with Tetrick aboard. A lot in his favor. 

BURNING SHORE cant be ignored with the types of miles he goes now that he has a competent trainer to maintain him. He will be a big longshot tonight, and he has a shot. I like my top choice better, as I made him my best bet. I will use this guy and others on the bottom of an exactor and I think its a longshot type race when all is said and done.

WINDS OF CHANGE had terrible cover last time and that hurt his chances. He is coming along, and had major talent last year. I rate him 3rd and use him for the bottom of the exactor at a big price. He could win the whole thing, but I like another better for that.

 Play Against:

APPRENTICE HANOVER I'm not sold the drop helps him. His problem isn't form or need for a better trip or softer competition. He simply wont pass horses off an easy trip. He will be short priced tonight, and I will take his action. He has really gone the wrong way in my view. He likely makes the ticket. But for the win, I think he is bad value.

The rest:

MAH SISH N---new kid in town. He has made a pile of money in his career. That was then. This is now. These are much tougher than the ones he is struggling to keep up to as it is. He might be well past his prime now. If he sticks around, I would think he drops some money and tries the lower conditioned ones. Even then, he is no cinch as he appears currently. Back class is just that. Back. I look in the present and going forward. He has to show he can do that. 

HES A SENSATION---has done nothing of late. Have to see him do more. That likely comes at the bottom condition or close to it. Pass tonight. He needs to at least keep up to get me back on board.

ALEXIE MATTOSIE---barely got it done last time, but steps way up. Can't see him doing much in here against some pretty tough customers.

SING FOR ME GEORGE---does not impress me on his return. He is not good right now. He seems to get that way and then tips his form when he comes back around. I will wait for that.

ROCK ME AMASTREOS---bad post and he is in tough anyway. Pass big time on him.

LETS ROCK TOGETHER---shows up every week but is somewhat trip dependent and not the grittiest pacer I've ever seen. He wins his share, but many times doesn't go by when he might. I will pass on him tonight and the somewhat short price. Jody ditched him, something he rarely does to a Menary horse. Another day for him, and triactor factor, but not for the win.

Race 6

GO DADDY GO went a monster trip last time like few can go. All out to make the lead from the 10 hole, then forced to vacate the pocket by the eventual winner...who he fought a long way in the lane. He could not be any sharper and tougher. I think he wins this fairly easy, but the price will be a bit short, so he isn't my best bet. He is my second best win bet of the night. He will take some beating by a couple who will test him. 

ALLBEEF N NOBULL raced pretty good last week, and if any of these can take my top choice, I think he is the one. He is in the mix, and I am tempted to box my top two choices in the exactor but I think he is more likely 2nd best and wont touch him. Very dangerous here.

PENJI HANOVER surprised me last week and he will have to step up even another level to make the final. He has a shot to do that, but the top pair and the play against might be out of his comfort zone. He certainly has talent. How much? I don't know. Tonight we likely find out.

 Play Against:

IN THE ARSENAL is very legit but meets some pretty tough ones in here. I will go against him and the short price because I love my top choice that much and there are others who can also get it done if he bombs for some reason. Tonight we find out how good he is and if he is a big threat for the final. I think he is not. He will have to show me otherwise.

The rest:

GOOD FRIDAY THREE---is not up to these from what  I can see. He has stalled and should not have been entered.

THE WAYFARING MAN---has flopped as I suspected he would when he reached the top of the food chain. No shot.

REVENGE SHARK---has potential, but draws a very tough bunch at the top end of this race. He could make 3rd and get in the final, but no better in my view.

DUDES THE MAN--was monster last week but there are a few in here that he has never tackled. I am curious to see if he can go with the top end of this field. He might. He needs a trip to compete, that likely means he competes but doesn't win.

Race 7

Overall synopsis:

THUNDER STEELER picks up Gingras, and this is the type of horse he does well with. This horse leaves but he doesn't quite leave enough and gets hung. Gingras is one of the best at timing the gate to make top speed at just the right time. That is right in this horses wheelhouse. Top call, but he needs to go a reasonable clip to last. 

THREE OF CLUBS takes the big class drop here, but he probably needs to. He has limited ability to hold on if used hard with better. These are more his type. I rate him a shot, as much as my top choice. He needs the right trip.

TRACK MASTER D in the mix to get a share but I don't think he wins it. He is a grinder. 

 Play Against:

ELLIS PARK hung a bit last week and was bearing in at the same time he was making his move. That was something he did last year too. At times, that means he races great but doesn't get there. He will get major play on the driver change, but there was nothing wrong with the drive last time. I think there is enough power in here that his bad habits get him again. Dangerous for sure. I will take my chances.

The rest:

IDEAL JET---has developed into a very nice horse, but these are tough to handle from the outside. One more level down, and still sharp, I will be all over him. I will pass tonight.

ASLAN---got it done last time, but now tackles the big fish. I am not sold he is doing enough to pass better ones. He will have to prove me wrong.

CARRACCI HANOVER---tackles a tough bunch here. I like others. He is better a level down in my view for the win. He can share if things go his way.

MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS---has a minor shot, but I like others better. He is too dependent on the engine to beat these most times.

PISTON BROKE--can't back his hanging ass.

Race 8

Overall synopsis: Artspeak jogs if he is right.

ARTSPEAK looks tons the best here if he is sound. Post parade is everything with this horse. 

SPLIT THE HOUSE could be anything. But he meets the best tonight. We will see if he goes forward when he cant just loop this type. I think he could make the final, and he might even go more tonight than he has before. He must. The jury is out. You never know until you test them.

ROCK N ROLL WORLD is about as rock solid as you can be. He always shows up and can go with the best horses around. Now, the question is can he go by the best out there currently. I think tonight we don't find out, as he only has to make the final. I slot him for 3rd, but he could be 2nd. 

 Play Against:

faces the acid test tonight. I'm not sold he is up to the best. I will take his action. He would have to really move forwad to beat my top 3. I think he wont. 

The rest:

BETTING EXCHANGE---needs to step up here to compete. He probably can, but I like others. I am on the fence on him and have to see him. If he makes the final, I'd rate him better then. Tonight, he doesn't look dangerous to my top choice.

SICILY---tries the best tonight for Gingras and Burke. I don't think he is up to it. He might sneak into the final, but that is the best you can hope for here.

TRACEUR HANOVER---has not come back yet to top form. That leaves him on the outside tonight in my view.

PIERCE HANOVER---Its my contention he isn't a Grand Circuit horse. So, I pass on him here. I don't think he makes the final

Race 9

YAGONNAKISSMEORNOT My top choice, she was very good last year at this track in this series, and has been legit before and since that with these. She is the one to beat in my view. 

LADY SHADOW as expected, she went forward first time Adams, the only one lately to grind down Waasmula. She can certainly win this, and I could have rated her as the top one. She has not beaten these types yet, so I rate her for 2nd. 

WEEPER steps up to face the best with solid credentials. She is in the mix, but I think the top 2 are currently a step ahead of her. It could be any of my top 3, but I went with class and past experience to carry the day.

 Play Against:

ANNDROVETTE is not the same mare this year with her new trainer. She struggles to even beat local Open mares, and here she meets some who are facing and beating the best. I can't play her and will take her action.

The rest:

AMERICAN IN PARIS---is just not the same, and has had enough chances from me and others. Until I see something that suggests she is herself, she is a no play for me. And certainly this isn't the likely spot to right the ship. She is in very deep here.

RADAR CONTACT---comes back to this track a changed mare. I think she is not the one tonight, and she might prove me wrong. The top 3 are very sharp. I wouldn't toss her.

WAASMULA---cannot be faulted for how she has performed lately. She almost fended off a juiced up and gassed up Lady Shadow last time. Now she meets her again and others who are tougher than she has ever beat. Acid test time for her. I think she is a bit player.
Race 10

Overall synopsis:

BEACH GAL is my longshot play of the night. I think she turns it around here at a big price. She obviously has had some issue, but when right, she can blow by these and did last year and at two. She needs pace to chase. That is the issue.

 Play Against:


The rest:

not rating the balance---however, I think most are legit here, and have a fair shot, but my top play is the price value and is as good as any of them if she is right. If she isn't, its wide open. I wouldn't play chalk.
Race 11

BETTOREVER was very sharp in the CC elim, but drew post 7 for the final. In spite of that, he was a fast closing 2nd. He drew horrible in his next two and just went around. Corey C is back aboard and I suspect with the long stretch here and some legit speed to chase he passes them all. My top call. 

SPINFINITI was not tried last time, but I expect a more determined drive and effort this time. He needs a trip and to get out in time. He has a shot at a price. He is very consistent. He is also proven at this level as of late. He will win this class again at some point. 

SHAMBALLA got it done last time and is racing steady now, still closing huge and moved earlier last time. This field is very deep and he is in the mix. I wouldn't want a very short price like last time and will play elsewhere because of that. He will be coming. Will he get there? Maybe.

 Play Against: 

Vegas Vacation has not improved enough in my view and continues to take money. Colemans stable has been ice cold and while he is racing well, he isn't the same as he was before the suspensory injury. They say they lose a few steps when they come back from that. He might have also. That wont cut it against some of these.

The rest:

PUSH BACK---is coming along, but he is still a cut below the entire field here. He has to show he can go with them when it counts. Not so far.

THINKING OUT LOUD---was much better last time than before, but still not good enough. He hasn't hit his best stride yet. I will continue to wait for that.  I like others better here. 

A J CORBELLI---a newcomer here, he ships in for Perierra and would really have to up his game to beat these. Watching. I don't see it tonight.

Race 12

Overall synopsis:

Buckaroo I will call him fresh off the bench. 54 flat back half in his qualifier. You dont see that very often, but this horse has always showed wicked finishing power when he gets wound up. You just have to do it at the right time. If you don't, he falters at the wire. Saftic knows him and did well with him last fall. He comes back at the level he was doing well at then, and he is tough to beat if he is race ready. His qualifier indicates he is. We shall see.

Big Moment paced a huge mile to be 2nd to a NACup horse tonight last time and will only have to repeat that to be a serious threat. If my top call isn't ready, he is likely the one.

 Play Against:


The rest:

NAKED CITY---got the jump last week in a suspect race and made the most of it. Not likely that happens again and he is a low percentage winner as a rule. Pass.

SPORTSKEEPER---meets older ones here and isn't likely to be driven hard.  I will just watch him. If he were raced hard for the win, he is still only one of many here.

the balance---none of them look dangerous for the win.

Race 13

FRIDAYNIGHTFLIGHT Is the one I will go to for the upset in the last. He gets a better post here and is the type who can leave and will sit. That might work out here, and the price will be right. He is possible, but lukewarm top call. Trevor gets along with him well. That is a plus.

WAZZUP WAZZUP is the obvious play on the class drop. I am not sold he is good value for the price tag he brings tonight, but he is the one to beat. He isn't always the most determined type. Beware if you take the short price on him. I wouldn't.

 Play Against:


The rest:

ROETHBLISSBERGER---is not good right now and he would have to be to win this. Pass.

DREYDL HANOVER---is the classic low percentage winner. I can never back him. I maintain that position unless he magically grows some balls. 

VELOCITY DRIVEN---is certainly one to consider. Improved post position helps him. He wouldn't shock me but he also needs to do more. Hard to get a read on him currently. I prefer others, so I went there.

Cant see any of the rest. They just don't do enough to beat any of the ones I have rated. Minor cheque hunters the lot of them.


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