Thursday, January 22, 2015

January 22, 2015



Race 7


   1 Chantilly Rose


toss, doesn't look like she belongs for trainer Zhok, who has a long history of racing horses miles over their head. Back to Flamboro after this or one more beating.  
        
   2 Frosty Delight  


really bad gaited mare with a poor gate but nice speed and kind of tough. Mario gunned her out last time and was lucky he didn't cause and accident when she scattered them. At best, they made an adjustment, he drivers her carefully this time  to see if that works, and he comes late for a small piece, and she is a win threat next time.  
              
   3 Alot Of Sense             

     
very low percentage 4 year old mare who has never shown she belongs at this track. Gets a better post, but has not even been close to getting a cheque in many recent tries. Pass until she shows something. Most likely a 5 claimer at Hanover when that track opens. Maybe.  
                 
   4 Tomei Seelster                  


doesn't seem to step up her speed at the big track, because she isn't much in the first place. Likely much better off back in a conditioned claimer somewhere at the B's. She just isn't A track stock, even in the winter when they are much softer. Pass for the win. She could hit the ticket under the right circumstances with this less than stellar bunch.     
           
   5 Arienne                           


goes 2nd off the shelf for Carmen and her debut for this season was an okay following trip from the 9 hole. She was a hot ticket for him on the tote board after a private purchase, but didn't perform and was then shut down abruptly. Probably because he thought whatever her issue was she was a likely solid Grassroots horse, and he is testing her out now to see if that is the case. Tonight she gets raced to win, and is a top contender. A Mac likely guns her out of there. 
              
   6 Kiss Me Or Not      


 Has been awful for weeks, and really months, since a promising start to her career last year. She goes for trainer Snowden, who rarely gets much out of them, and MacDonnell, who can't seem to win races anymore and frankly doesn't look like he cares until the stakes season starts. She can't even leave anymore and doesn't like to work for it. Total pass for me.   

               
   7 Weekly Special                    


graduates from a solid maiden win last time and moves up to tackle "winners". But to call many in this group winners is a wild overstatement. She obviously looks like a prospect, and could take these down right away. She is in the mix, but she will have to be closer up than last time to pass them all.        
         
   8 Regal Roxy                       


B track 4 year old mare who tackles the big fish for the first time and draws the 8 hole. I suspect a test drive is in order,  as she didn't even beat one last time at London who would not do on this circuit in a maiden. She has to show she has the speed to go with these and then convert that into a win. So far, I don't see it and her breeding suggests she doesn't.     
             
   9 Play Ground                       


raced sharp last time and got up for 3rd after a following trip. Against these, she has a shot, but needs a few things to go her way. I'd use her on a minor level in case she steps up and others falter. 
               
  10 Maplelea                           


Circled a very suspect group of maidens last time, but did it with ease. These are a bit tougher, but she will likely have to do the same thing again. Maybe she doesn't want that 2nd win so fast before she learns to be more tactical. I call her for 3rd or 4th, but would use her in a minor way as I will the 9 horse.

1st   5 Arienne 
2nd   7 Weekly Special 
3rd   9 Play Ground  
4th   10 Maplelea
  
Race 8

   1 Hard Oil Button                  

 second time starter who showed nothing in her first try to suggest she can go with even this suspect bunch. Last time was a similarly poor bunch and she trailed all the way. No thanks. 
                   
   2 Ida Sofia                         


certainly has potential, but as of yet, she has not been raced to win and there is likely a reason for that. Riina wants to keep her a maiden until it is time to start moving forward. Very minor shot here only because these are so poor. I'd use here in a minor way for the pick 4 ticket, but don't see her coming through for me.    
            
   3 Franney Love Dat                  


 comes back off the shelf for Fellows, who is known to have them ready. She tried Gold Fillies last year and held her own if fast time, faster than most of these appear to be able to go. She is the likely favorite in here, and as such, hard to like, but very dangerous. She must be used, but somebody in this group will probably beat her and next week she is a more serious threat. 
           
   4 Lady Santana                     


 probably has some talent based on her breeding, but so far, her overall times and last quarters suggest she doesn't have enough for a track like this. I might use her in the pick 4, as these are just as poor as her for the most part,  but she is hard to like until she shows a bit more.    

          
              
   6 Wake N Bake                       


first time starter off the qualifier for CC and Brethour, a potent combo with these types. She went okay enough in that test,  and she hasn't proved she is a nickel slug like most of these have. Can she beat the 3 and a couple of the other contenders in here? She could. But its tough to win first lifetime start. I will use her in a minor way. 

             
   7 Arrivista Hanover                 


shows nothing to suggest she is ever going to win at this track, and I suspect will be sent packing to a new barn shortly that races at a B track where she will have a chance to pick up cheques and eventually win before settling into life as a 4 claimer at a place like Monticello or Buffalo. 

               
   8 Imacutiepatootie                 


 is fast enough to be dangerous and I think eventually will find her way and win this class. I don't think that is tonight from this post with a few that are still ahead of her on the speed and experience ladder. Pass for tonight.      

         
   9 Im A Canadian Eh                  


 looks like the type that can be very dangerous with a driver like Henry. Send her one week from the 10 hole and she is short and not ready for that. Take her back and come late to pick up 3rd the next time, all the while improving her overall time and fast quarters in a very early young career. She certainly has upset potential if the two logical ones fail for some reason. Must use in the pick 4. 

               
  10 Warrawee Qually                  


seems to have potential to win this class at some point and then go on to be an okay grassroots horse at the B tracks when May or June comes along. But her breeding suggests she will remain a cut below at this track most nights, and a back of the bus start from the 10 hole tonight excludes her for me. I will pass and watch her.  She is taking her overall time down, and if she shows she can maintain and slightly improve, I might play her next time or the time after that.


 1st   3 Franney Love Dat
2nd   6 Wake N Bake
3rd   9 Im A Canadian Eh  
4th   2 Ida Sofia

 Race 9



   1 I Am Special                     


has always been a talented, yet erratic and hard to control mare. I will continue to pass on her until I see something that suggests she is maturing out of that. At the B tracks she can get away with that. Not here.
                  
   2 Hie Benny                        


 is a talented and very well bred trotter who shows flashes of what he's got, but can't put it all together. I think he will at some point.  That could be tonight. Carmen Hie puts Trevor behind him and maybe he thinks that will make a difference. I will use him on the possibility that the top players in here bomb out and anything with talent can get it done on this night.

              
   3 Me The Boss                 


 draws inside this time, but just doesn't have the gate speed to take advantage of it. One of these nights he will blow up the tote board,  as he shows flashes of talent every once in a while. I will use him in a minor way here in case tonight is that night. 

             
   4 Headsaregonna Turn                


 is another who shows signs that he is going to pop and take these at some point. Definite use on the pick 4, and I could see him winning even if the top faves don't blow up. Must use. 

             
   5 Walk The Plank                 


   is the consistent type who finds it hard to win no matter what type of trip he gets. One of these nights he will, but he is still a maiden racing winners,some of who have mulitple wins in fast time. Cant play him at very low odds, but I will use him in a minor way on my pick 4 in case he steps up tonight when others falter. On his own, if the others behave, he is very unlikely.
                 
   6 P L Gemstone                       


tried it on the engine last time against a lower class than these and was going the wrong way at the end. Hard to like a 5 year old mare that has never won a race other than once at Kawartha against the bottom of the barrel. Pass and toss. 
              
   7 Etruscan Hanover       


       is well known for both his extreme talent and terrible manners and consistency. I will completely avoid him and take my chances that he blows up again. He got away with it once, but that was a horrific field and he reset quick enough that time. Most nights, if he runs, he keeps running and never gets his act together. If he beats me,  so be it. I wont use him at all. 
               
   8 Star Of Thunder         


 is very hard to like off his last line and the rest of the ones on the page where he was a runner and never in it. I will pass on him also. Have to see some form from him that suggests he is raceable first. 
            
   9 Cash For Gold         


     is the obvious play now that he is fit again and has shown in the past he has the high end speed to go with Etruscan and anything else in here. He is no cinch from this post, but certainly has to be used on the ticket. He is beatable though. And he is still capable of running, although he isn't as erratic as Etruscan is.
                
  10 Page In Time                   


  cannot see any way this one gets it done from the 10 hole. At best he is looking for a cheque when others falter.     


 1st   9 Cash For Gold
2nd   4 Headsaregonna Turn
3rd   2 Hie Benny   

4th   5 Walk The Plank 

 Race 10


   1 Precious Cammill   

 
Has not won at this track in a very long time but has enough back class  to pop up.  However, getting beat in a 5 claimer non winners at Flamboro makes her very hard to like against some in here who are okay in a straight 8 on this circuit. Minor use in the pick 4.    
         
   2 Jet Hot Stuff       


  always looks like she will go forward off her previous start, and looks great on the track.  But she continues to trip over her breeding at the tote board. I will play against her,  although I realize one of these nights she will put it together. 
                   
   3 Whipperosa


   did okay at Flamboro, but she is a known hanger and hardly ever wins. Austin is a fine B track driver, but doesn't do well on this circuit and I suspect she is looking for a cheque. 
                   
   4 Thrill Chaser      


  has gone backwards in recent weeks after showing some promise. Hard to like her off that form.
               
   5 Outer Drive Girl     


no shot. Not sure why she is even here. I guess as a buddy to Zhoks other one. She goes home with nothing, as her trailer buddy does is my call.
                   
   6 One Night Dance    


   can't see this one as she currently stands. She gets worse every time.  
         
   7 Itza Free For All 


goes first time off the claim for Dave Dowling, who is a sharp guy off that angle and taking this one off Glide is an interesting play, as her form is not great and she does have back class. Top call  for me in the upset. 
               
   8 Theron Seelster  

   
 Is dangerous on the trainer change and the fact that she was a pretty good mare at times last year in the States. I'd use her as an option in a field with many who look a lot more like pretenders than contenders.
             
   9 Kikiskissinkousin


 had no excuse not to get it done last time, but still got passed by a mediocre mare at the line. Post really hurts this one, and I will play against her and the likely overbet status she will bring.



 1st   Itza Free For All
2nd   8 Theron Seelster
3rd   2 Jet Hot Stuff    
4th   1 Precious Cammill 























Tuesday, January 20, 2015

A key, an angle, and a failure. Avoiding the bad beat.

I have never been a pick 4 player. Mostly because I didn't think it was a wise play for my style of betting. But I like to maximize my profit, so I had been looking at it for a while to figure out the best way to go about it. I am not looking for the big score persay, although I wouldn't mind getting some of those as well. I am more looking to get more bang for my buck on my win bets and manage my bankroll better.
I think there is a time and place to take high value win bets and place them within an exotic like the Pick 3 or Pick 4. I would only play the Pick 5 if I had a very likely big longshot that would allow me to play a small upfront bet and almost certainly take down the entire pool with a 20c base bet. Thereby, maximizing my bet by 5 times in addition to the actual odds I get based on a $1 base bet.
But that is the exception. Mostly, I would play mainly Pick 3's, and some Pick 4's. But the circumstances must be right. I have been watching others play it,  and also practice betting them myself. These are my observations, and to some extent, suggestions.  
----------------------------------------------------------
One of the things that any serious horseplayer aims to avoid is the "bad beat." Basically that means picking the right horse, getting value, but then just barely getting beat, usually by another horse you thought could beat you. You have to make decisions in life and as a horseplayer, and you make your choice. 
But do you really have to make decisions like that?
I don't think you do. I will explore how to maximize your chances of avoiding the experience of the bad beat. I have been able to do that somewhat successfully lately, for the first time in the 30 years I have been playing the horses. 
It was actually always right there in front of me, but I just refused to employ a strategy to take advantage of it.
After doing a year of testing and formulating, more testing and then honing my system, I was very confident that I could take all that I do, which encompasses extreme data and statistical analysis, very intensive replay watching and years of experience as a savvy bettor, all added to hands on experience as a horse trainer and owner. I can find value and know how to get the most out of it. I can find weakness and exploit it. And do.
Or so I thought. But I would still experience the "bad beat" way too often. It bugged me, and I wanted to find a way to mitigate that.


The impetus for this came back in November 8th at Woodbine Harness. I had been watching CURATOR for quite some time. He had been knocking on the door after a long period of bad behavior and form. On this night, I made several bad bets and others that just got beat.  But my data told me that Curator's race was going to bring a longshot in the range of 10-1 or slightly above. Curator fit that range, as did Drain Daddy, who was around the same odds. At post time they were both 10-1, with Drain Daddy remaining there and Curator finishing at 11-1. I had to go with my top pick, Curator, because I liked him at any price on this night. But I was mindful that he was beatable enough. In reality, either would have been fine as a 2 horse key in an exotic, due to the value they provided. That is how I should have played it. 
The rest of the race was littered with spotty, mediocre horses at lower odds who figured on paper to have a shot but all knew how to get beat for various reasons. And the track that night was favoring the front end to a major degree. I had figured Curator to take this night to go to the front and try to bottom out the field, which is exactly what he did. Drain Daddy has always been a horse who liked the front or the pocket, and had the gate speed to get that trip. That is exactly how it played out. Curator was on a mission, and Drain Daddy tracked him. At the top of the stretch, it was clearly those two, with Curator looking like he might hold on. 
But he had gone too fast, and Drain Daddy just nailed him on the wire. My friend Garnet Barnsdale's first post right after the race to me was "bad beat."
And it was. I had a 10-1 shot, and unfortunately, I had two of them and picked the wrong one. So, it wasn't really a bad beat. It was a bad play. A bad bet. A bad strategy. I needed to correct that to turn things around. 
How could I have played it? Well, I view a pick 4 as basically 4 different races where you have multiple ways to create value, and adding them together to make a much bigger return, while allowing for some variance in the outcome.  In other words, I don't need to pick a Curator or Drain Daddy, I pick them both and only have to be right about the race and the possible winners. Picking one winner is mostly a fools game. 
Now, I think playing an exotic like a Pick 4, or Pick 3 in some cases, boils down to 3 things,  with some variance on the possibilities. But you MUST have these variables covered to be successful over time. You need a key, an angle and a failure. All of them. If you consistently can get that, then you will win steady and significant money, and your bankroll will be as safe as if you just churned race after race playing show bets. If you do this right, and play nightly, you should hit 40 to 50 percent of the time, and increase your bankroll in the process.
On this night, my key would have been Curator and Drain Daddy as a 2 horse key in Race 10, which was the 3rd leg of the pick 4. I was very confident in that selection, and I might have graded them in some way, weighting higher to Curator, but certainly only used those two. Race 8, the first leg, I had Nickle Bag rated highly on my data analysis, and he was 18-1, but I thought he was an iffy proposition, as you would expect an 18-1 shot to be in the FFA. It was a 7 horse field and I would have only excluded one outsider longshot, Alexie Matoosie, who finished a well beaten last and was just filler to make the race go. The rest were viable. My angle was that it was wide open and I needed to get that leg over with and might hit the longshot. I would have in fact. Nickle Bag did win at 18-1, after sitting back and out of a speed duel. The ticket would have been made right there. Instead, I played Apprentice Hanover for the win, and he got beat. It didn't feel good, and it shouldn't. Betting poorly and getting beat when you know you shouldn't doesn't feel good. The sting of it should slap you into some sort of action and reality. As it did for me later.



The next leg, leg 2, had 4 logical horses and they were hard to separate. I didn't bet the race, but the angle was simple. A grab bag. No failures, but possible price. The favorite, Windsun Revenge, ended up winning at close to even money. 
Leg 3, was Curator and Drain Daddy, and I mentioned that I would have used them as a 2 horse key. I would have made it to leg 4 with an 18-1 shot, an even money shot, a 10-1 shot and I would be sitting on the last race and able to cover anything I hadn't used earlier because the profit was locked in. In that race, Race 11, it looked wide open and I would have had to take an all, graded heavily to the top 6, and then weakly to the bottom 4, of which if any of them had come in I would have likely taken the whole pool with a 20 cent ticket for about $50,000. As it turned out, my top 4 picks finished top 4, but the favorite won. It still paid $4638 for a dollar base bet. 
I would have had to lay out approximately $250 to get that $1 ticket. And the point of it all, was that I didn't really get the fail I thought I might in the 9th or 11th race, and if I had, I probably would have gotten $10,000 or more. And secondly, although I had the races figured out somewhat accurately,  I didn't pick one outright winner or key him that way. Which is what I tried to by winning betting Curator and Apprentice Hanover, who finished a very close 3rd, another bad beat, while Curator got nosed out and finished 2nd. I had done some great handicapping and went home empty and a big loser on the night. 
One of the things I discovered through my testing is that I could do much better if I always played 3 or 4 horses as opposed to just one. Anybody could probably make that claim. Having 4 choices is a lot better than 1. But of course, if you bet 4 horses, you need to be right a lot more often, and the return on the win bet must average many times higher than most can with just 1 choice. 
How to mitigate that?
Well, my solution was to develop a system to take advantage of the many bits of knowledge I have. Not just the winner of a race, but a race where I can narrow it down to 2 or 3, and add that to some others where I can't pick the winner, but I am fairly accurate at predicting the demise of the favorite, and in some instances the 2nd favorite. In other words, finding the false favorite. But that doesn't give me the winner in that race.
Here is what it does do. It gives me a decent priced winner in one race, and a big winner in another, although I don't know who that is. Separately, they don't add up to value. But put those together, and add a 3rd race where I have a decent angle, but not a cinch prediction, and I have 3 races of a pick 4 right for a very decent return, and then I just have to make sure I get the 4th leg by using as few combinations as possible without being taken out. 
I do that by grading a race like that, so that I basically have them all and can't get beat in that leg. The more I like a horse in that leg, the higher I weight them and vice versa. I wont get beat in that leg.
It all hinges on the other 3 legs. Now, I wont be right every time. Nor do I have to be. As long as I am right a good amount of the time, and I hit one huge pick 4 and several medium to large payoffs the rest of the time, the few times I am wrong will not matter. The overall return will be very high. Why is that?
Well, here is the first rule I go by.
If I am playing the pick 4, I never key a chalk horse. Never. I have done it before, and for the most part, I wont get a high enough return when they come in. So, while I realize I will get beat a few times by not keying a chalk I think might beat me, it makes poor financial sense to do so. I will take the hit when that happens. If I really can't see the chalk going down, I just don't play. If I think they could go down, I will weight that horse low, and play others I think have a legit, yet risky chance of beating them. If I truly believe the horse can't be beat, I avoid the race, and if it falls in my pick 4 sequence, I wont play it. 
My theory is that the money I am using to play the chalk is another horse I could have bet, and while that means I will get beat sometimes doing that, the time when I am right will make up the difference and then some. Why is that?
Because the majority of people who bet pick 4's key a chalk in a race. They find it easy and it allows them to focus on the other legs. The problem being, they either get that chalk, along with everyone else, and it pays little overall, or they get taken out with the majority when he fails. There is virtually no value in keying a heavy chalk. You will lose over time  doing that. That has been my experience and observation, which I have tested backwards and forwards.
Many people play the Pick 4, or at some tracks, the pick 5, or pick 6.
And the pick 3 is popular. At many tracks,  it is a rolling pick 3, so you can play it almost every race. 
Why do they play those hard-to-cash wagering types of bets?
Mostly, I think they are looking for the big score. It's a lottery type of mentality.
In reality, you will likely lose more over time than win, even if you hit the one big score. And you could go weeks, even months, before you hit one. And there is always the chance that you hit it, and it doesn't pay near as big as you expected.
It can play serious mind games with your confidence and break you. I know a few guys who have really been hurt by it.
I'm not a lottery player. I have never bought a lottery ticket in my life. I am not looking for the big score. I am looking for maximum return overall. I don't play table games in a casino, or slot machines. I play games where my skill matters and I think the public at large make bad bets. Because the reality of making money at the horses is that I have to take your money, not the houses money. I have to figure out where you make a mistake, and put that money in my pocket. Betting and keying the false favorite in a pick 4 is the number way I have found that people do that.
So, I approach the 4 races of the pick 4 with these questions.  I don't know what I will find, or what the answer will be until I look them over. Then I put them together and make a plan to make profit. 

1)In any race, what is your key, and what is your angle?
2)Who can and will likely fail in this race?
3)what does my data tell me that the betting public wont begin to consider?
4)If I'm right, what will it pay so I can gauge what a reasonable amount of money to lay out?

The most important thing is that you have a very solid key. You must have that, and you must be right. You might get the fail elsewhere, you might not. Some nights that will come through, some nights it wont. On November 8th, it didn't. But I had the key right, and my angle in the 8th race was right. That brought enough value to make it pay off. If Windsun Revenge fails in the 9th, or the winner of the 11th, I get more. But I don't need more. It will happen, and it will make up for the times you go home empty. But the basic is getting the key and the angle right, and not loading onto a chalk as a single key. That rarely provides the value you need to win over time.  

If you don't play it this way, in my view, you are loading the gun that you shoot yourself in the head with.

Here are some other key points.

Using the favorite in more than 2 legs of the win 4 is suicide.
Here's why.
Ideally, you should only play when you like 1 favorite, and single him. if you must, play a smaller backup ticket with 2 or 3 of them.
If you need all 4,don't play the ticket. you haven't figured anything out.
If you do your homework, you will know that the favorite rarely wins more than 2 legs, mostly wins 1 and enough times wins none. Playing all 4 or even 3 means you don't have confidence you can figure out which. If that is the case, don't play it.

You need some sort of data advantage.  
That could be numbers, it could be race analysis. It could be whatever it is that you use. But it better be better than what others have, and something they don't have access to. Because if they can figure it out too, then your advantage is negated and the 25% the house will take on this wager will negate the profit you can make. I know I have this, and I have proven it to myself and others.


I view the data as a foundation. 
Before you start, you have to have this foundation to build any ticket.
You cant have more than 2 faves in your pick 4, and you have to figure out which 2 are in, which 2 are out, and possibly if you need less than 2, which is likely. if you need 2 or more, then you have to figure out what it would likely pay, and then see how many combos you need to cash out and whether it is viable to play the ticket in the first place.
The data guides you here. Favorites are favorites for a reason. That reason is that on paper, on the program, they figure. But we all know that favorites only win about 35%, and at most tracks, that is even less in a pick 4. They stack those with races that suggest the favorite is pretty beatable. You need an edge that isn't on the program to figure out which ones those are. So you can load up against them with other horses who can. You don't know which one most times, but if you don't need the favorite, that is one more you can choose to beat him.
What I see with almost every handicapper, even the best ones, is that they included the favorite in every leg, because, as they put it, "you have to use him" and then they go on to give you reasons why he can get beat. And they are usually right about that. That is working against yourself in my view. I have seen that movie so many times, that I routinely now discard the favorites and then work my way back. I pick the ones that I must use, and otherwise, I roll the dice on the others. That means I do get beat at times, but when I'm right, I more than make up for it. It's just simple math if you work the numbers. 

One key thing is to try and always get to the last leg, so you can cover whatever you need to to lock in the profit. A lot of guys wont play it that way, and that is their choice. It's a gamblers mentality. I am not a gambler. I am an investor and if I have $4800 locked in and I have the favorite, I will spend $500 and play all the longshots that can beat me. It is just wise investing to make sure I still win. When I don't, I regret it. It is just another situation where I can avoid the bad beat. Do I give up some profit that way? Some claim I do. I don't think I do. But even if I did, I will gladly do it. I still make a lot, and my bankroll and psyche is protected.
And one last thing.
I play out the entire sequence in my head. what I need to do, how I will cover, what I expect, where I am worried. is it worth
it? It prepares me to make better decisions in the heat of battle.
In the last month, I have employed all of these strategies, and have hit some very nice pick 3's and pick 4's. I am more than willing to discuss actual examples with anyone who cares to see how it played out for real. And I also missed a few, and in almost every case, I didn't stick to the principles I lay out here. Which only further cements that this is the way to go for me. You might want to consider doing the same.
I know it works.

 

Friday, January 16, 2015

Woodbine Harness Notes: January 9-15




Previous weeks list. 

Possible plays: 

SOMEWHERE FAMEOUS OTB
WEATHER HANOVER DNR
MORNING BLUE CHIP DNR
OZZY OZZY DNR
HES A SENSATION DNR
ALWAYS THERE OTB
 AUTOMATIC SLIMS OTB
NIRVANA SEELSTER 3RD
JAC SPADE OTB
ALEXAS JACKPOT  OTB
MUSSELSFROMBRUSSELS WON
GEAR BOX 2ND
GD AIRLINER OTB
 CANT STOP OTB
BLUE CHIP SUNSHINE DNR
      
Likely play against:

MAPPOS MOENHAY 2ND
 KEYSTONE DALTON 3RD
BLACK VINNY OTB
LOST IN PANSLATION DNR
                                                     ROCKNROLL BAND WON, new info I didn't previously have.
HIT AND GIGGLE 4TH
STRONG HOPE OTB
SAVANNAH SPLENDOR DNR
REAL ROCKER OTB
  DINNER AT THE MET OTB
   IDEAL JET OTB
     SURPRISE HANOVER DNR
 SOUTHWIND TERROR 3RD
 NIPPY W HANOVER DNR
  
Horses to watch for improvement and value:
 
ALL THE LADIES
TERROROFTHENITE 
 HOUSE OF CASH
SEA DONKEY
ER ZACH ATTACK
TIGHTEN UP
RANSOM DEMAND
 FLIGHT LIFTED

New list, with carryovers.

Possible plays:
SOMEWHERE FAMEOUS 
WEATHER HANOVER
MORNING BLUE CHIP
OZZY OZZY
HES A SENSATION
 AUTOMATIC SLIMS
NIRVANA SEELSTER
JAC SPADE
ALEXAS JACKPOT  
GD AIRLINER
CANT STOP
BLUE CHIP SUNSHINE 
MACHET ROCKET 
NIRVANA SEELSTER  
TOPCORNER TERROR  
UF DRAGONS ROCKET
DONT SAY GOODBY
MCKINNEY
 RUB N TUG
MEADOWVIEW VICKY
RAMBLINGAMBLINGMAN
GIVE ME AN AMEN
DGS JUST LIKE THAT
CALL IT COURAGE
TOO SHY
WIRE ME CASH
 WHY ARGUE
  DOCS HOLLYWOOD
     
Likely play against:

LOVE DETECTIVE
STANDING MY GROUND
MISTRESSTOTHESTARS
 WANNA ROCK N ROLL
TANGO BAYAMA
MYSTERY BET
P L GEMSTONE
 WARRIOR CALL
   PEPPERMINT PATTI
MAPPOS MOENHAY
 KEYSTONE DALTON
BLACK VINNY
LOST IN PANSLATION
     SAVANNAH SPLENDOR
REAL ROCKER
  DINNER AT THE MET
   IDEAL JET
     SURPRISE HANOVER
 NIPPY W HANOVER   
Horses to watch for improvement and value:
ALL THE LADIES
TERROROFTHENITE 
 HOUSE OF CASH
SEA DONKEY
ER ZACH ATTACK
TIGHTEN UP
RANSOM DEMAND
 FLIGHT LIFTED



January 15


TANGO BAYAMA pretty lame coming to the wire. Back in a 10 claimer at Flamboro she is very beatable. Hurting bad and trying to go with WEG horses has not helped her cause.
WIRE ME CASH one of these days, maybe this winter,  that horse is going to get his act together, similar to how Frill Seeker did for a month last winter and blow up the tote board. I'd include him in every exotic until he does, assuming he isn't the chalk for some reason.
WHY ARGUE Might have tipped 3 wide too early, and also was on a line pretty bad in the lane. I expect Nixon to fix that up and she jogs next time. Not sure how short a price I will take, but hopefully she hooks a sharp one and it gets inflated.
DOCS HOLLYWOOD. bad shuffle behind a known stopper and then not much room in the lane to only get beat about a length. After the final, when she is back in a maiden where she belongs, she looks like solid gold. Could end up being a good one like her full brothers and sisters.
MYSTERY BET. looks to have a host of various soreness and resulting interference issues. On a day when that doesn't bother him, he will return boxcars. Any other time, and at short odds, he is a total no play. Even Zeron holding on to him and steering him to compensate can't keep him together on those nights, and he wont show it in the post parade. Only at speed.
P L GEMSTONE raced very well, but was putting in steps at the wire. Bad play at likely shorter odds next time.
WARRIOR CALL looked great coming with a huge rush, but looked horrible all the way around. Solid play against next time if he takes money because of the great line but suspect performance on the track.
PEPPERMINT PATTI  when she heads to a B track in a start or two, and picks up a driver who hasn't handled her before or in a long time, she will be trouble. She had trouble staying on the gate. Fillion regrouped her and timed the gate,  but that wont work at a B track with the odd speeds they drive it. Very solid play against for a horse that doesn't like to win anyway.
CANT STOP  got screwed from the get go. Scattered and interfered with when Frosty Delight stuck her toes in, then rammy in the hole, had to pull first up into a very fast 3rd quarter, and having Emerson blood, not particularly tough or brave anyway, as she showed a few starts back at chalk money on a bad night when she got a similar trip. Big play next time  on the rebound. Just wasn't her night.  
 
January 12

LOVE DETECTIVE looks maxed out in that class, and likely wouldn't even double up if she gets back in with the same bunch off that win. Not very impressive overall and certainly not from the last turn to the wire.

STANDING MY GROUND
bearing in bad coming out of the last turn and all the way down the stretch. Likely false fave next time and will fail on the engine. She has a history of getting sideways and making breaks when anything is wrong with her and it appears something is, although she has raced better and very tough the last month. Seems to be catching up with her as she competes with tough customers.

January 10

The whole card the last quarter was very slow, and any horse who cut it or left hard and held their own or gained in the stretch was very sharp on the night,  even if it appeared they were gassed in the lane.
Horses that fit that profile are:

Machet Rocket,  Bilbo Hanover, Nirvana Seelster, Topcornerterror, Four Boys
Curator, Camaes Fellow, E W Fisher, Prescotts Hope, Dont Say Goodby, 
Drain Daddy
 
MACHET ROCKET. more like how she was previous starts barring the bad track the time before. Left hard and traveled well in the 2 hole. Had no way out until very deep stretch but made steady and easy gains to almost nab 2nd. Certainly a top play next time if spotted right. she is very sharp and a very good WEG winter horse peaking at the right time.
 
NIRVANA SEELSTER. another solid effort. left well and stayed in, got a shuffle and jammed up a bit but came on nicely when free and seems to be much more versatile in how he can be used. He has become much more of a racehorse over the fall and as a Camluck, he is likely to improve and become something close to a Preferred horse as he matures. If he could get that trip and be able to get a 2 hole ride the whole way and pop out, he would draw off next time. Very sharp.
 
TOPCORNER TERROR. top effort. If he hadn't got a bit of a shuffle behind a stopping leader he certainly was 2nd and might have won it. with his good gate speed and Takoor gassing him up every time, he should be good to go for about a month more. 
 
GEAR BOX jogs next time in this class. Highly suspect drive by Allard. Almost looked like he wasn't racing to win. Should never have let A Mac get the 2 hole and then didn't go after the leader like he should have. 
 
UF DRAGONS ROCKET. typical Dragon Again. Very lazy if he isn't on top. Trevor was beating on him to shoot the gap along the rail, which he did only to come up on Dapper Denzil who was locked on a line stopping right in front of him, hooked wheels briefly and had to check him hard, which ended any chance he had, but he then came on again and raced great. Better post and more forwardly placed next time and he can provide serious value. 
 
DONT SAY GOODBY. Excellent bounce back effort after a poorly driven effort the time before. He suits this class well and looks like a horse with excellent form and nice tactical racing style to take advantage of whatever trip he can get.  Likely winner next time.
 
MCKINNEY has always been a very dangerous and hard to hold horse in the hole, and he was uncontrollable this time when McNair steered him into the safety lane and never moved him back out of it. I suspect a bit or bridle change and he did have plenty of pace. Could be a huge overlay if placed properly next time out or the time after that. He has beaten much better in the past.

January 9



MEADOWVIEW VICKY. left well, but sat in, then had zero room to go in or out or forward and had to wait for JJ to move forward, which he was in no hurry to do because he wanted to pin her in while he knew he had the rest of the field beat. As soon as she was free, she was moving fastest and best. Top call next time. She has matured very well.

RAMBLINGAMBLINGMAN huge trip. left better than normal, pulled first up into a blistering 3rd quarter and paced right to the wire, to only barely get beat by a 1-5 shot who sat on his back, picked him off but couldn't put him away. If he parades okay next time, he is a cinch. 

GIVE ME AN AMEN. Absolutely brutal drive by Mario B. 2nd time in a row. Hope they change drivers and she is classified right. I will bet my house on her getting it done. He is a dangerous driver these days who might have vision issues and not enough strength or reflexes to drive at WEG anymore. Hard to play him on anything that can't get a very easy trip with lots of room to move. Sad, he was a very good driver for a long time. That time has past.
DGS JUST LIKE THAT  not sure why JJ felt the need to fuck over Sylvain and this horse last time, but that doesn't matter. Sylvain will float out next time, move down the backside and draw off for the win. Must have started and stopped him 3 times in this mile and he likely shut off his air at some point. 

MISSTRESSTOTHESTARS needed some major finessing again this time and was wonky behind at various stages in the mile. Good play against at this point as she did race well and will likely take major chalk money.

RUB N TUG. tough trip. left but got a shuffle, and had no room and nowhere to go until it was too late to matter. She doesn't like to win, but she did have a legit excuse this time. 

CALL IT COURAGE very solid mile off the layoff. Good play next time if the post is favorable and the price is right. Different driver wouldn't hurt either. 

WANNA ROCK N ROLL.  I cant recall a horse having absolutely everything go her way like she did this time. Easy 2 hole trip. Willing leader who carried her far enough but then quit once she got beside her, first over mare who had no pace and backed away at just the right time and a host of parked mares who all hung enough into a 31 second last quarter so she could outstagger them. Huge play against next time.

TOO SHY not the smoothest going mare, as per her breeding, but she had the most pace but nowhere to go and would have won it if she had a lane. Can be a solid play next time if the spot is good and the price is right.