Saturday, June 6, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: June 6, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 win on Dudes The Man in the 5th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Team Captain  in the 2nd
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Team Captain in the 2nd
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Dudes The Man in the 5th
Best exactor bet:
$10 exactor 6-3 in the 8th

Longshot exactor bet:none
Best Exotic Bet: :
Worst Bet:  Split The House to win. $10

Race 1


Muscle Baby Doll  $10 to place

MUSCLE BABY DOLL goes third start back here, and both of the first two have been solid. She has tremendous finishing power for a young trotter and the overall speed and class to back that up. Post 10 is always an issue, but she seems to race from well behind either least for now. I rate her on top, but the short price and her impending dance card will keep me from playing her for the win. I will play her on another bet. She should get it done either way, but I can't bet chalk from the 10 hole. 

MICHAELS TURN is one I rate for 2nd. I noted that Drury was holding him together and letting him win on sheer talent on the way up the ladder and he would hit the wall he has with these types. He may have adapted now, and I give him a minor chance to get it done here. He still needs to trot all out with confidence. He might get to that point. So far, he still does not. There are others who can and will out trot him in the lane until he does.

DOMEDOMEDOME has scored 2 in a row now, parked every step last time and just holding off a big longshot from the back of the pack last time. She now moves up and these are much tougher. She might need a couple to get used to these, as most do. She is likely a ticket player with these for a while and then moves to the head of the class. She also has a shot, but only a minor one to take down the best in here.

 Play Against:

COVERT OPERATIVE won the Tie Silk final, but was already showing signs of wear and tear trouble by then. Randy really finessed him through that series, and now he meets older, seasoned ones who can go a bit more than he has had to go. I thought about rating him as one with a winner shot, but what I have seen from Per lately, and over time, leads me to believe he is not likely to be sorted out enough to have confidence in him. I would have to see it on the track. So far, I have not. Talent is there. Problems still are as well.

The rest:

MEADOW SEELSTER---has progressed quickly from a nw2 type to a high end stakes mare. Second twice to Stubborn Belle is some pretty good trotting. Now, back with upper condition types, I think she is in the mix, but there are others who can go with her. She likely takes some money based on her current form and progression. I will just leave her alone this time and look elsewhere. If she holds up, she should make a solid Gold filly all season. Her fantastic gate speed and overall speed make her very likable.

CHIVAREE HANOVER---was a very good 2yo, but has never come back to that and can't seem to get it together. McNair ditches her here, logically, to go to a far better prospect on the outside. That gives you a good idea of her likely chances tonight. I still think she might get it together, but I need to see some evidence of being steady to make me consider her. Not so far.

DONCANGO---came to team B with great expectations in the fall, but simply has not panned out. Ben will work and sit on a horse for months, as we have seen with Etruscan. He continues to plug away on this one, but, like the one above, until I see something more reliable from this one, he is a no play for me.

HIE BENNY---has been terrible for the last couple of starts, and now goes first time lasix, while he is now one month from his last race. I wont play him tonight, in that he is likely short , but he is now being watched for a quick turnaround on form if he races okay tonight and comes back quick next time. I have always thought he would mature into a nice aged horse. He seemed to be going in that direction, and now the  lasix might be the final piece. Might.

MUSICAL SPELL---has been bouncing around this class for a while now, popping up to get pieces from time to time. He is 0 for 17 on the year though, and I think he might break through at some point. I will still just watch him tonight, because I prefer others, but in my view he could pop at any time. Beware.

KATE SMITH---like many of Holland's is very erratic. She can and will blow up the tote board again, but when that will happen is anyone's guess. She parades like a cripple some nights, so, I would suggest she will be more viable if and when she stops doing that. I am watching for a sign that is occuring.  So far, I haven't seen it. I continue to pass on her, but she is being closely viewed for a sign of soundness.

Race 2


Team Captain      $10 to win, place

TEAM CAPTAIN would be one hell of a horse if he was sound and could drive straight. As we saw with Moonlit Dance last night, sometimes they just gradually get better with that and then you really see the power they have. This guy might also fit that mold. He was clearly going by The Wayfaring Man last time if not for having to be checked several times as he was running in. In this smaller field, J Mac can stay up close and then swing out very wide in the lane and hopefully drive him full out. I think there is lots more he can offer if that is the case. Top call at a price considering the other two who are taking heavy tote action in here.

BIG MOMENT cannot be ignored here. I think Windsong Leo would dominate this bunch currently, and he avoids that one this time. He was solid yet unspectacular last year, but many Camluck's are better as they age. This is his 3rd start back, and while I think my top pick has a big edge on him, he also sometimes has steering issues and is vulnerable. This one is another viable longshot to play if you don't want 1-5 which is what you get with the one I will play against.

SOUTHWIND INDY like many of Coleman's, this guy was great at 2 but has not come back sharp at 3 so far. I have always thought he was the top one of that crop she brought out early last year. I am not certain he can win this, but at a big price, I would use him in the exactor, maybe in a minor way on top and full out on the bottom. CC always has to be respected when the better horses are out.

 Play Against:

SPLIT THE HOUSEis the obvious play in here, as he gets one more in before a likely NAC try next week. I am not sold he is mature enough for that yet, nor to beat all of these. He now exits the races where the majority have minimal futures at best with the type of company he wants to keep. Many of these do have that potential, and his green tendencies are more likely to stick out like a sore thumb here. He does just keep on pacing, but many of these wont come back to him like the others he has met. He needs to step up here. I say he isn't ready to do that. Come September, he may be a bearcat. We are in the first week of June and I don't think he has achieved that status yet.

THE SPY for some reason, this guy is still paid up to the NAC. I've never understood the talent level his connections see here, and you see 3 or 4 a year of these. Last year, Surprise Hanover was one, and there were others. Just because a horse is paid up, doesn't make him legit. The racelines simply don't back him up. He is in deep with this bunch in my view, and not even in the ballpark if they jam him into the elims next week. I think they avoided the big boys tonight for a reason. They will likely avoid them next week too.

The rest:

CONVERSATION BOY---is a project horse, and one Moreau wasn't able to solve. He would pay monser boxcars here if he were to get it together. I can't see it. He does have talent, so I will be watching to see how he looks and performs for another day when he has a legit shot. This isn't that spot, even if he is better.

LETS WAIT AND SEE---was heading in the right direction in this class until the serious stakes horses came out and began to populate this class. Now, he is a gazillion miles over his head. No thanks.


Race 3


YOURE MAJESTIC     $8 to win, place

YOURE MAJESTIC seems a more mature racehorse now than she was at 2, and Sylvain has been careful to make sure she keeps up with that. This is her 3rd start back, and I think they are pointing her towards the Gold, with an eye to making her more steady and tactical. Tonight, she is likely raced a bit harder, and the speed has always seemed to be there. If she can duplicate the speed of her last and maybe go a shade more, I think she takes the one who beat her last time. Top call.

CAULFIELD drew post 6 at London, gunned to the top but the back half was blistering fast and he was already hard used. He needs to do more, and go faster, but Beaver is one of the top trotting guys out there, and he can get it out of him. He needs a rail trip and some room to come out if he has a shot. That could happen at a decent price. Pick 3 user.

R CHOOCHOO CHARLIE draws a lot better here and has upset potential. I just like a couple of others more than him, but if I play the pick 3, I will use him in a minor way. On his best day, with good behavior, he is very dangerous to go to the top, run away and hide on these. Beware. 

 Play Against:

JETPEDIA  completely bossed around a very soft bunch last time by simply using his class and the fear factor to keep them at bay. However, he post paraded sore and he didn't look great trotting as Saftic kept him together at a speed where he didn't have to worry about asking him to beat off a challenger. Muscle Hill's go off form and soundness just like that. This field is a bit tougher. I think, if and when pushed, he is vulnerable. He could be better if there was a trip to the vet this week, so watching him parade will be the key. I advise you to do that. 

MAGIC MADNESS  is a talented and gritty performer who brings it every time. But, she was sore on the track parading last time, and while she gutted it out then, eventually that is going to come back to bite the bettors who stay on board her train. I was on that train the last few starts, I have gotten off at the last stop and now board the YOURE MAJESTIC express. Timing is everything as a bettor.

The rest:

SEVERUS HANOVER---has been awful and a runner for a while now. I doubt Jody does anything but try and get him away flat, skim the cones and see if he is viable for next week. Pass.

CLIMB HIGHER---got it back together with the trotting hopples last time. He is still up one level from where he won, and he is meeting far better now.  I will watch to see if he can compete as the competition gets stiffer. Not tonight for me.

COUSIN EDDIE---doesn't look like he is in the ballpark of this bunch. That is all I can say.

PLATOON SEELSTER---certainly is tough, and knows how to make money.  He is a legit Gold horse, and with post 9 tonight, he is out for a trip and to keep sharp. Pass in this race for me. I don't think he has the overall speed yet, or maybe at all, to go with the top 3 or 4 in here.

ALLERAGE STAR---no shot in this spot. Wait for a post to see how she stacks up.

Race 4

Monte Christo     $8 to win
Mr Dennis           $6 to win

MONTE CRISTO every horse, even the ones that hardly win and are hard to like, have their day. For the big price I am likely getting here,  I will take a shot at this hanging, mostly rat. He does have the speed when he decides to try. He does get Fillion, and there are many in here who look okay on paper, but if you dig deep, they are very beatable and can just not show up when the money is on the line at the tote board. I want in the 30-1 or more range here, and at those odds, I will take my shot here. He could easily be no good. I grant that. His last 2 at Flamboro have been pretty good, to two winners who would be pretty tough in this class. Larocque is sneaky as most of us know, and Fillion does well with him. 

MR DENNIS takes a drop, and with his extreme gate speed, we know where he is likely headed. If he can be rated and save a bit for the stretch, these are within his reach at a decent price. Pick 4 user and possible win play if I can get 10-1.

 Play Against:

ASLAN can pace a very fast back half, and has faced much better at times this year. He dropped to the bottom and was on his life to pass Prince Clyde. Back up a notch, he was midpack at the wire. At a short price tonight, I need to see more from him than I have to consider him anything but a likely chalk burner tonight. He might be a solid show bet, but I'm not even completely sold on that.

The rest:

SUNNY BEACH DAY---is just one of many in here that is hard to like for whatever hole he has in him. His are his lameness and desire to not fight for the win when he is sound enough to win off trips that he should win off. Trevor gave him one a month ago, and he let a non trier pass him like he was tied to a pole. Can't play him  on top, but he is a triactor factore.

YUCATAN---is basically a sounder, better bred version of Sunny Beach Day. Pass on him and his non trying self.

ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP---drops down for team B, and needs to. He is much the same as the two above, but he has made a good buck in his day. I'm not certain this is enough of a drop for him at this stage in his career. I will go elsewhere. I haven't liked his racing attitude the last few times, and when he goes sour, he really goes sour. I'm on the fence on him currently, and I will be watching to see where he goes from here.

CALGARY SEELSTER---was just terrible for a year or so, then he really blossomed on the move to McCabe, and now has settled in  somewhere in between those two polar opposites. He gets to drop down to the class he won two back, but that doesn't always do the trick for him. He likely takes a lot of win money, and I can't play him for that. I will pass on him tonight. If he shows up and tries, he could get it done. He doesn't always.

SANTANNA BLUE CHIP---came off the shelf, tripped out and passed the ones who paced with him most of the way. He moves up here, and since Sunny Beach Day was the 2nd one, I suspect he can't get it done here. He has 1.6 million made and was a very good colt, but that was 8 years ago. Ancient history. He is just a class mover now and now he is moving up the class ladder. Pass.

LEAFS AND WINGS---gets Campbell, but he raced poorly last time at London and while he pops up on this track every now and then and does okay, currently, he isn't good enough to take them all down. Pass.


Race 5


Dudes The Man    $10 to win,show

DUDES THE MAN will be my top play, with Corey C holding the lines. He has been prepper just right for this race and next week. He got a start over this track last time, back half in 54.2 and mile in 52, closing up to get 3rd, which was the goal of the trip. He threw in a 26 flat 3rd quarter in his first start and coasted from there against mutts. Calahan drove him last year at Lexington, and knows him. I think there is serious power under the hood we haven't seen yet, and tonight, he is going to be asked for it. My top call in this one at likely a very generous price.

PIERCE HANOVER is the wildcard in this bunch. I never thought he was good enough for the Cup. Yet, they dance this dance and continue to take their shot this week,  I don't like him myself to beat the better ones in here, but he is possible and you can be certain he wont be rail hugging all the way. Your call. Mine.....3rd or 4th. He was on his life to pass Reverend last time, and he was being held together with glue by the good hands of CC. He needs to step up. I don't think he will.

 Play Against:

MAXDADDY BLUE CHIP has 2 lifetime starts, a break on his card and he has never raced over this surface. While he appears to be a serious horse, these aren't pushovers. There is a Breeders Crown winner inside him, and others who have shown more over time than he has so far. At a short price I will take his action tonight and have him prove me wrong. I doubt he can boss these around and get away with making mistakes or just one brushing to the top and coasting. The jury is still out in my view.

ONEISALONELYNUMBER has certainly come along nicely, and he has a shot. But he is another who hasn't beat the best when he has faced the best. Winning in fast time at the Big M is something ordinary NW2 types can do. It proves nothing other than he has high speed. All of these do or they wouldn't be in this race. He is another who will have to show me he can go with proven stakes winners and moneymakers.

The rest:

TRACEUR HANOVER---comes off the shelf late and faces the acid test right away. He likely needs another race to get fit for next week. The jury is also still out on him as to whether he can do what he did last year without the dope Johnson was feeding him. I don't know either way. I do know he wasn't much stock relative to these before that trainer change. Beware.

AMORA BEACH---hung last time  when asked to go after the leader.  That was a trait he displayed many times last year, and one that his sire has produced in many. I want to see him live up to the hype his owners keep hoping he will. Watching tonight. I can't see him in this spot.

TRADING UP---looks to be in very deep with this bunch and would really have to step up to justify being entered next week. I can't see it. This field is very deep.

HARFO HANOVER---is taking his shot here, but he seems more of a Indiana Sires colt than a Grand Circuit foe, and that was evident when he was demolished last time by one who is and couldn't get 2nd to another who seems mostly a local State horse. Pass.  

PENJI HANOVER---doesn't look legit to me with these and even if he was, his first two races this year are poor also. No thanks.

WIN ONE SOON---????. That is all.


Race 6


Ms Mac N Cheese     $10 to place

MS MAC N CHEESE does everything right, and is clearly the one to beat here. Anyone that wants to is going to have to pass her in the lane. She wants front and she will get it. She might need another second to go all the way with the two I choose behind her. I'd want 2-1 to take a shot at her. Anything less and I head to the place pool.

MAPLELEA has been off a month now after racing steady and hard all winter...and cleaning up. She simply is going to have to start moving earlier and not trying to mow them all down with one big brush. The jury is out on whether she can go with this kind and be any more than a cheque getter. I don't know. They never really ask her to try. Tonight, they must. For the right price, say 7-2, I'd go with her. Not sure that is in the ballpark range, unless my 3rd choice takes money off her suspicious scratch.

CAST NO SHADOW on a good day, if she was sound, fit and had drawn well, she is probably my top play. But, she is one month away, and unlike my 2nd choice, that didn't seem to be on purpose. Being a Shadow Play, soundness will be an issue. Post 10 really also hurts her cause. She likes the front, and she wont get it here. Being off a month also doesn't encourage me to play her. She was hard raced all winter. I'm not sure she is the better for that, although she made the money. The jury is out. 

 Play Against:

CAST NO SHADOW  is a play against for he reasons above, although I rated her for 3rd. Suspect. 

The rest:

DUBLIN ROSE---tries Gold fillies when she is still learning the game with nw2 types. She might be good enough for these come August, but at this point, I think they are being overly ambitious and would do well to stick with the Grassroots, where she would be no lock anyway. Pass.

BETTY AND THE JETS---broke her maiden 3 back, but seems way overmatched with these. Not sure what is up with this entry. She is not even a NW2 bearcat yet.

MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS---appears over her head with this bunch. Not sure why she is in this race.

I WONDER WHY---was 2nd in the Gold last year, but she has not gone forward, speed wise as she has returned. There are too many in here who already go much more than she appears to be struggling to achieve. Pass for now. Likely she is a Grassroots filly.

CAPELA---is hard to get a read on. Post 10 last time did her in, but the start before, she hung in  the lane. She showed flashes of talent last year and she is well connected on the breeding side. She has a longshot chance tonight to wake up, but I will wait for the next Gold to maybe play her if she improves. Right now, she isn't top shelf with these.

DANCIN CAROLL---was very erratic last year. Speedy and made money, but locked on a line and bearing in bad many starts. She might be over that. I haven't seen her race. Her two preps were just that..preps. They give you no read on where she might be now. I will watch her. If she were to be sounder, straighter, and ready to pop, she could blow by these.

EVAS GIRL---didnt have enough go last time to take down nw2 on Isaac's return to the fold. She is likely a Grassroots filly who they paid too much for and now will chase Gold's until reality sets in.

Race 7


Ellis Park  $10 to win

ELLIS PARK if he is in striking range at the top of the stretch, I can't see any of these holding him off. Top call and I will take 8-5 or hopefully slightly higher. Anything less and I begin to think twice. This is a somewhat soft spot for him. 

LETS ROCK TOGETHER dropped and basically beat these types again by just doing enough to pass them at the end. He has company on the wing if he tries that this time. I think 2nd best is more likely if he is still that good. He holds form well and likes the big track. He has found a nice home at Mohawk when spotted right.

CAMAES FELLOW came a back half in 54.1 last time, changing his tactics and not making his usual gun play, run and hide for the top. I suspect tonight we see him go back to Plan A. Not sure it works, but every now and then, he shows back up and his best can beat these. Beware. Carmen's charges are about as inconsistent as they can be. Windsong Jacoba anyone?

 Play Against:

MELMERBY BEACH might be a really high end, and consistent horse one day. Maybe even soon. So far, he is a mid level horse who has trouble putting good efforts together and will run if anything goes against him. Tough bunch tonight. He is up against it here.

CAPTIVE AUDIENCE non trying, hanging rat who came up the inside and lucked into the win last time. That was his one win for the meet. Back to the hanging. Thanks. Have a nice day.

The rest:

TRACK MASTER D---appears about a second off this bunch right now and short on overall class as well. He might be a classic condition climber and diver. Time for the dive. Maybe soon.

PUSH BACK--is another of many in here dropping out of the top class, and he wouldn't shock me. He did boss these around pretty good before being forced to move up. I just prefer a couple of others more, but he is certainly capable if things go his way and against them for some reason.  A trip on Cameas Fellow's back and then out before the rush comes might be a winning trip.

BILBO HANOVER---was foolishly forced up into the Preferred, which isn't even in his vocabulary. And  under that pressure, he ran, which doesn't take much with him. Pass against many who can compete in that class but move down to score.

IDEAL JET---vet scratch, 9 hole, outclassed and likely not in the flow. Minor cheque if he can get that. That is even debatable tonight. Better spot next time,  I take a look at him.


Race 8


$10 exactor 6-3

SOLAR SISTER is just too good right now. Unless she has an issue I don't see, she crushes here at short odds. I'd only take 3-5, and anything less I would pass the race. I think she is likely lower, so, I likely pass over this one.

 Play Against:

Lovely Erin meets the acid test here. These aren't nw2 types she can just swoop while they are going all they can go. Brett Miller gets the call here, and while he is good, the horse isn't up to snuff in my view against my top call. If I'm wrong,  so be it. I don't see it.

TESSA SEELSTER in my view is also not on the level of my top call, although she might get there at some point if she holds together. Tonight, if she takes her on, she will be the worse for it. Mario has been around, he wont fight her. Solar Sister is not Ride Away Shark. You hook her, she will park you and if you try to park her out, she will grind you to a pulp.

The rest:

WRANGLER MAGIC---gets Sylvain back now that Ms Mac N Cheese is not in the race. She is coming along, and at some point ,she is going to be a major player. Maybe tonight. She could be the bottom of the exactor, and even win if something else wanted to run my top call and soften her up. I don't see that, so I will call her for 2nd.

the balance---are racing for 5th and not worth rating tonight. Most are Grassroots types.


Race 9


Go Daddy Go $10 to place

Go Daddy Go iTo me, he is the class of the field and likely we haven't seen that he can truly do. The 10 hole is always an issue against nice horses, but he has shown significant grit before off a very tough trip. He won The Battle of Waterloo parked the mile last year. I think he can win this, but the goal is still the NA Cup, so I want odds to play him on the win tonight and I doubt I get it. I will play him to place tonight, and watch to see if he is what I think he is. 

 Play Against:

THE WAYFARING MAN just doesn't seem to me to have enough to go with the best,and even the lesser ones than that can take him at the wire. Until he shows me otherwise, I am not impressed enough that he is top shelf.

The rest:

not rated --not enough time to do that here.

Race 10



Spinfiniti is my top choice, as he is so tactical and razor sharp, but he is one of many in here who could step up. I can't separate them,  and I wont. Not many would shock me in this one. It is a very deep field.

 Play Against:


The rest:

Shamballa  --is a wicked fast closer, but he leaves too much to do each time and his insane closing speed is still not enough to always take down others who go almost as much with a headstart. He has to show me he can stalk closer and still blaze home. So far, he has not.

Race 11


Moonwriter $10 to win, place

Moonwriter is the one I go to here. He was a clear 2nd to Go Daddy Go last time, and has always showed he is a high end animal that will get better as he goes. I am not a big fan of the likely chalk and will go against him  with this one, who I do like. He paces fast at will, and the big track helps him keep rolling, although London didn't seem to hamper him if you look at his back to back last 2 quarters. He is the one to beat.

 Play Against:

improved last time over the dull effort he gave first out. But he still only followed and did little to change my opinion that he is chewed up. He will have to turn it around to beat my top choice. I don't see it.
The rest:

CLOSING CREDITS  --might be hitting the wall now that the serious horses have surfaced. When he takes enough money off his card and can find a condition race that excludes those types, he is dangerous again if he holds that form. We shall see. Not tonight for me. 

NAKED CITY  --appears to be 2 seconds off this bunch to me. I can't see him challenging for the ticket. 

BIG TURN ON  --same as the above one,although he is slightly better and could be 2nd or 3rd off the right trip. He is a triactor factor in my view and one to watch for the win in a better spot. 

MITTCENT VAN GOGH---jumps back up where he doesn't belong and will get trounced in this spot. Nuff said. 

MAJOR STARLIGHT---same as the one above. But he is even more over his head.

Race 12



Winds of Change is my top call, he seems to be finding his form and gets CC tonight. Got terrible flow last time, but the price might not be what I am looking for, so I will just watch. He seems very live right now and last year competed with the best.

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