Thoughts On Racing: May 2017

Monday, May 29, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 29, 2017

RACE 1

1 On a Sunny Day did pretty much everything right at 2, winning 4 of 6, being 2nd in another and running in the Superfinal, her only blemish. She did have the rail in that last start, and as we know, that can be a real problem for trotters, especially young trotters. She draws that again tonight. She was flawless in the 2nd qualifier back, doing everything right and angling in the lane to float by the others under no urging. She has a proven track record of being a very solid finisher, which is a big plus with this group. This is not a tough or deep field, and since she trotted in 55.4 at 2, and has had 2 qualifiers, I would think she can trot in 56 right away. I don't know if that is enough, based on how fast they were going Saturday night, and Fillion might be cautious leaving from the inside, as I'm sure this one has bigger dances right on the horizon, as Hamilton notes in the program. If the 2 takes a lot of win money, she is a viable option to play against her.

2 Pampered in Pink is typical of most of the young trotters with issues that Vanderkamp turns. He has taught this one to find a comfort zone, and he mainly does that by letting them float out and relax, so they stop getting edgy going to the gate thinking they will run, then gradually lets them move into the race and finish well, mostly going away from the field late. Once they get to that stage, he starts racing them more tactically. This one fits that profile. The step up from maidens to nw2, both tests she has passed, and then to nw3 requires a bit more speed and a bit more racing effort earlier in the mile. Last time she was floated out again towards the back and had too far to come, but she did go back to back 28 and change quarters, indicating she is progressing and still in very good form. At this stage, Jake And Pondas Lexus are too advanced for her, but she was right there with the rest, and meets a much softer field here. Post 2 is no problem, as she doesn't look to be in need of being in the top 5 at the quarter anyway.

She received mild urging at best last time, and certainly could have gotten 3rd if that was important. Hard to ignore her form, but she could bring a very short price tonight.

3 J N Ryder has 1 lifetime win in many starts, which he took 2 back at London. He is 5 now, and has earned a decent buck considering his win shy status. He won by leaving from the rail, which he has always been known to do, and backing down the half. Back with better last time and without control, he was back to his small pieces lifestyle. I can't play him in with some pretty nice ones.

4 Santini is likely gearing up for a solid Grassroots season, as he did last year. He has prepped well and took his time down nicely last time. This is his his 3rd start back, and loses Fillion to the rail horse but picks up Condren, who can arguably be considered better with this type of horse. He was gapping and finished only evenly last time, even though he had a very soft trip. I think he needs one more to be 100% fit, and he is only a minor use tonight if I am wrong and he steps up.

5 Life Well Lived tried Gold colts last time at Flamboro, on a miserable night and deep track. We wont know if he was actually good enough, because he jumped it off early and never recovered. He would need to take a second or two off his final time to go with the best of these currently, but he does have a good post to get out near the lead, and if one or both of the logical ones from the insider happen to blow up or encounter bad road trouble, he is viable. Carmen had a very good run on Friday and Saturday, and he can win a lot of races when his stable gets hot.

6 Bluebird D Train ships in from the B tracks, where she has done reasonably well. She tried a step lower at Woodbine twice, but wasn't good enough then. Perhaps she has matured a bit, but he is not finding a soft bunch at the top end of this field. She does bear in, or at least lean in enough that the move back to the big track will help her. She looks short on class to a few of these. Very minor use in the picks if you want to go deep. She would need them to fail.

7 Janderson goes 2nd off the layoff, plus 2 qualifiers, and is another prepping for probably a try at Gold Fillies again to see if she carries her 2yo form into 3. Some don't. She was following a loose on the lead leader last time, but gapped that one and was not with the top 2 when the win was decided. She also had the pack ready to swarm her, but the line came just in time. She did knock almost 2 seconds off the qualifier, and that is the fastest she has gone yet. I can see her as a bit player, and a minor shot if a lot of things go her way. Her breeding suggests that when others gradually progress and win in faster time, she will be more than happy to tag along like last time. I prefer others.

8 I Jasmin has a very low percentage trainer, and a very high percentage driver. What to do, what to do? She herself is also a 3 time winner who has done a lot of racing but is now a 6yo. McNair jumped off to take the 10, as you would expect anybody who can read the program would. Last time, off the shelf, she drew post 10, spotted them 20 at the quarter, but did trot forward late, with a back half in 56.1, evenly to only get beat 5. She might be a play next time if she draws better and duplicates that performance. She has a history of not duplicating performances. Lets see how she is this time. She trotted consistently in 55 and change last year before she was laid off. That would be in range for this class most nights.

9 Money Mission was decent enough last year, but like many that go from 3 to 4 and dont have restricted sire stakes types to play with, he is struggling. This is his 3rd start back, after many qualifiers to get back in the box, and he has been a slow starting bit player to this point. Both times a big longshot, and he draws the 9 hole here. He looks like a one speed, B track type that will do well when Georgian opens up. I will watch and wait for now.

10 Winter Sweet Frost banked 323k last year but has raced poorly in 3 starts to this point upon return. She jumped it off last time, and I would think the goal tonight from the 10 hole is to get away clean, keep at it, brush late for whatever that gets, and be going in the right direction for the first Sire Stakes, which is coming up shortly.

RACE 2

1 Northern Swift is a nicely progressing maiden who drops into a Grassroots, which generally is not a good angle, but this race has come up soft on that variable. The only one who is really proven, the 6, has suspect form and generally her type regresses as they go from 2 to 3. This filly has drawn a post 1 and 9, so she likely has been up against it. She gets the rail again, and that is a negative. Last time, from the 9, she tried to go directly left when the gate sped away, and Drury had to correct her, and in the meantime, she was left out with no hole. When she got to the turn, the hole was there, but Drury didn't want it, as there was one in front of that hole who was steppy and might have jumped right in front of her. So, he carried on, parked the mile, and she stayed with it most of the way, only tiring mid lane and coming home even. She is extremely green, but appears to have a lot of speed and potential. Minor shot tonight if she puts it together. At least if she veers slightly left leaving, she only has to hit pylons and not other horses.

2 Southwind Geo is the opposite of the 1. She is a seasoned maiden, having raced a lot at 2, and still going up to this point. She is now 0 for 15, and she returns from London. I will say that other than last time, she drew badly every other time at London, and because London is more about earnings that wins, she was racing higher than what a straight maiden might have to face. Last time, she did draw better, but moved first over into a 28.1 third quarter that did her in. She looks like a one brush horse, as her breeding would suggest she is. I could see her as a viable, very minor longshot chance in with a bunch that have enough holes to make me think like that.

3 Cams Lucky Star was bred by MacIntosh, on one of his favorite crosses (Camluck/Artsplace), but when she showed up as a racehorse last year she was already in the hands of the connections she returns to tonight. Same owner, but after a stint in Ohio, she returns to team McNair. She progressed nicely and then got it done in a maiden at Miami Valley 2 back, but then had post 8 at Scioto, was at least 5 lengths off the gate when it sped away, spend the entire time in the backfield in a second set of no good ones that were going nowhere, and she couldn't even pass them. I like others a lot better than her, and if she were to back up that 3-1 ML and go off the fave or close to it, I'd book her action and leave her off any ticket.

4 C Mary wired the bottom maidens at London, then came right back at the added distance race and wired those. She made the move to the big track last time, but was an iffy leaver, then hung, then gapping out badly, and finally well beaten 10th. She does show two fast quarters to finish off that race, but she was doing nothing while doing it, and others did better than her. I think this move gets her a bit ahead of herself. Her trainer sports a high average, so he appears to know how to spot them to make money.

5 Deprived is a very aggresive type, but more than anything, she is grabby as long as she is following along. Three back JJ tripped her out in the deuce, but when shown a clear lane, she couldn't even pass a tired and running in leader, who raced poorly again next time, and let another by as well. I can see her blasting out here and looking for someone to follow, but I'm not sure how that ends up in a winning trip. She will have to do more. She is also a maiden, but a poor performing one.

6 Southwind Ion started out with high hopes when Coleman brought her out in a Gold right off the bat last year. That never really worked out, and she was sold after spending the spring in Andrew Harris's stable, when she was thrown into a conditioned claimer at Pocono last time, and raced terrible. Gilmour takes over here, and she draws well. Those are two variables that can't be ignored, as well as her 4 lifetime wins, her 53.4 mark taken last year and her 68k in the bank. She is hard to ignore, as Hamilton has done in his comments, and I'd have to use her in some manner in the exotics. She will have to be seen, but she has a class and experience edge on a lot of these, but terrible form to go on. According to the program, she will be removed from racing on Lasix tonight. That is an interesting change you don't see often. London is done and Grand River hasn't started yet, so McClure is in to drive her.

7 Fading Shadow was bred and raced by Jack Darling last year, but he moved her out the door, as she didn't appear to be much stock. She tried the Grassroots once last year, was 9th, and then hit the conditioned claimers until she was purchased by the new connections. She has come back ready to race, and bagged 2 2nd place finishes at London, as she moves here to try the stakes fillies again. She has a shot as she appears to be improving. I'd use her in a minor way.

8 Maching Me Zilly is an 0 for 13 maiden that draws the 8 hole. That isn't a good start to my assessment of her chances tonight. She had post 9 last time, 8 before that, and was in a deep hole both times. No reason to think she isn't in that hole again here. She does show finishing well, and back in a straight maiden, I think she is a viable play on the right night.

9 Machs Echo is a homebred that barely raced at 2, and draws poorly tonight, after spending the winter at Pompano and shipping into London to get her season started here. She is hard to like and one I will have to see parade and race to get a read on for next time.

RACE 3

1 Stenhouse Hanover beat a pretty soft bunch of maidens last time by simply staying trotting, going one speed, staying out of trouble and outclassing them. There are a few in here that he wont get away with that. He is likely to be as good as many by the fall, but he is not there yet. This is a tough climb all things considered.

2 Innovative Force is a 4yo gelding that is 1 for 30 something, with weak form. He retains Roy, but he starts slow and had missed almost a month, and meets a few in here with high hopes for a bright future, which this one doesn't look to have. Of note, he did draw the rail 3 times in a row at Woodbine and was a bit better last time from a better post. If he were to perform tonight, I'd consider him for a longshot chance next time. He took his lone win at Flamboro, so, in reality, he is a maiden at this track, but doesn't get to race against them. Not tonight for me.

3 Perfect Mass came right out and was ready to race at first asking, scoring impressively. She was pushed right in against stakes foes next out and the pace was much faster. When moving well, she appeared to interfere slightly up front and jumped. Otherwise she looked okay. If that issue is sorted out, she is back in where she can compete and has a legit shot to take these down, especially if the 7 has similar issues to last time which didn't cost him then but will tonight against one like this.

4 Euro Gap was in the Takter barn in the winter, and he got him sorted out right before the sale, and Grant bought him. He has returned to his spotty consistency and jumped it off twice before holding it together in the qualifier. He shows high speed when he can put it all together. Minor longshot upset potential because of the type of colt he is. I wouldn't want him to beat me tonight because he figured it out and others just bomb out.

5 Tougher Than Ever seems to be a one speed type. He goes 29 and change almost every quarter, an on a night when 57 and change or 58 wins the race, he will win that race. Otherwise, he just goes along and picks up whatever is left on the table. Last time, he was on cover, which was poor but going forward, then lucked into a mare who had broken equipment and a front end stopper who bagged it and that landed him 3rd, with no threat to the top 2. His slow starts don't inspire confidence that a one speed type like him can storm home and beat them all.

6 Just for You draws the best post and goes out for Boyd, who is red hot with the longshots lately, and he owns this one himself. She has progressed nicely off the shelf and closed well last time to be right there. Shot at a price.

7 Dancer Hall is an interesting one. He is obviously talented, and has a powerful frame and strides in full gear. He also stays out a long way and just keeps going. However, he does show the signs of soreness and lameness that you would expect from one who has an Amigo Hall dam and Deweycheatnhowe son. I'd still use him in a minor way, but he is ripe to go down if he keeps needing finessing like he did last time.

8 Weslynn Dancer shows a lot of X's on the page, including her last race and 2 of her last 3. Post 8 tonight, and there are a few in here who are ahead of her on most variables. I will pass on her until I see something of a consistent effort week to week. Being one of Bax's, I'm aware she is capable of turning it around fast and scoring at a big price.

9 Heineken Seelster is not one I can back on many of the variables I see, namely post position, coming off a layoff, makes breaks, cheap bred, never beat much or gone fast, and on and on it could go.

10 Vero Amore Bi was aimed at the big dances and won a Gold before going lame and being shut down. He looked lame long before that, and now comes back off the shelf with 2 qualifiers and post 10. I would think Randy races him easy and his efforts will be put into another day for a better purse.

RACE 4

1 Rose Run Samantha made a very impressive post parade appearance last time and raced right to it in the race, being 2nd from the 10 hole and giving the winner a good run in the lane. She is a maiden however meeting many proven winners, draws the rail, and has a driver who uses others when winning is more important than teaching. She is possible, but I wouldn't be taking a short price on her and I suspect that is what is coming.

2 Out of Sight was aimed high last year, but couldn't quite cut it, and ended up just winning a maiden and the final of the Autumn Series. She did make 46k and was fairly competitive when spotted right. She comes back off the shelf with two qualifiers and racing at the Grassroots level now. This isn't a sterling field at first glance, so, I could see her getting it done and I'd have to use her in the pick 4 and 5 if I were to play that. This could be one RW gets out near the pace, buries, and comes up the rail late to steal it.

3 Kloof Street has never really looked sound in all the times I've seen her, and now she returns for the season off 3 qualifiers, which she needed because she ran in the first two and got around last time with the trainer driving. That is not inspiring me to use her, in spite of her upside potential at times.

4 Royal Point ships in with some decent lines and a solid winning record.....beating maidens from rail starts at Rideau. If that is the kiddies pool, she is swimming in the middle of the ocean without a life preserver here. She will have to be seen and prove she can handle some relatively tough customers for her.

5 Sheer Talent was pretty solid last year, and both made money and won races. This year has been another story, as her first 3 starts have been awful. Carmen's barn was very cold, and she is also a Badlands Hanover mare, and they seem to go off form and then turn it around fast without warning. She has to be considered a dangerous longshot to use if you don't want to get wiped out here. Carmen has not gone the Lasix route here--his favorite fix it for the ones that stop---so I infer there is some other issue and he is working on it. Tonight could be the night it pays off.

6 Ask for Me is 1 for 13 life, got that win with a superb rating that gave the only legit one on her back no chance, but otherwise has not performed. She is coming off 3 bad posts in a row, so, while I don't like her for the win tonight, I could see her turning it around in the near future if I see something remotely positive here.

7 Gottalovemyshadow is both very eager, and very green, and at times she drives like a snake, and almost run up on horses when she follows. She will probably grow out of that, and she does look talented when she gets it right. One of many in here, but I'd have to use her. She paced in 53, back to back 27.3 quarters in her last start. That appears better than most of these.

8 Braonach wired a soft bunch at Flamboro in April, but otherwise she has been a bust as a racehorse to this point, and gets the 8 hole tonight. She appears to take after her brothers win shy tendencies. I can't see how she makes the ticket.

9 White Dancer shows enough to be a player with this group if she wasn't in the 9 hole start jail. I guess you could add her if you have room, as J Mac has been known to find a trip to get this kind home. That is your call. I haven't decided yet myself if I want to do that. She also has soundness issues, so being Race 4, you get to see who she is on that front before you play the pick 4. I will avail myself of that option. For the pick 5, you have to make the call at 7:25.

10 Big Chute is a bit player maiden from the 10 hole facing winners, and some stake winners. Hard to see how she can beat these.

RACE 5

1 Pickled Preacher went to the top in his debut last time at Flamboro and wired them. Hard to knock that effort, and he gets to race maidens at this track. I will watch him once with these, and some of them have gone pretty fast to date and he is likely coming from off the pace with a rail start. Tab for later. Pass for tonight.

2 American Sportsman could easily go off at 1-5 tonight, and if it was just off the program, that would probably be okay. However, he shows very troubling lameness signs, and last time was galloping after the wire and for a good stretch after that. McNair was slashing on him to get it back together. He has showed those troubles before, and thus is a blow up candidate. On talent, he probably has a big edge on these but not so much that he can be 70% and beat a few who show enough. Minor underneath use to CYA, but I'd go against him and hope he proves me right.

3 Big Charlie Horse has big upset potential, and should be a big price. He made his lifetime debut last time, from post 9, and spotted them 20 at the quarter. He paced a big 3rd quarter, showing the type of speed you hope maidens translate into winning form as they progress. Obviously he will have to do a lot more and go a lot faster, but his dam had that type of speed and class, and of course, his sire is a known quantity. This field is ripe for a longshot. He could be the one. Or not. Tough call when you only have that race to go by.

4 Penzance Hanover started poorly in his career debut, was out and moving wide, was in contention but not looking terribly dangerous, but then wiped out by a loon who had to deal with a blind driver who came out where there was no clearance. He hooked wheels and came to a dead stop. Minor shot, but I want to see him go an entire mile and work for it before I call him a serious contender. Mayotte generally is a long term thinker and isn't in a hurry to win a maiden with a 2nd time starter.

5 Creepin is a very fast leaver, but he appears to need to sit a long time and draft. When he did that 3 back, he stayed on for 2nd. When he didn't 2 back, he walked home. The improved post here gives him a big shot to turn the tables on whoever cuts it if he can sit on a live helmet and one brush later to contend and possibly win. Top call for the upset over the obvious faves.

6 Abbeydorney looks to have some speed, and was tried briefly against Metro foes at 2, with a poor result and not a good finish to his year. He switches barns to Marfisi as he resurfaces, and draws the good post. He is a contender, but I like others in this spot. I have to see him and see how he races.

7 Tremendous Play has 2 poor posts in a row, and draws better here, but meets what would be considered a deep maiden field compared to most nights. Not for me tonight, but he could be a longshot player as the summer progresses.

8 Uncle Reimus shows poor starts and some breaks leaving otherwise, coupled with post 8 tonight, it makes it hard to back him. I have to see him. His breeding suggests he is very fast, but also might have some steering issues if he is like the others on that cross.

9 Bobcat Bound made 13 starts at 2, but never got it done, although he tackled the best out there many times. He ended the season in a maiden, and didn't get it done there either. He qualified okay to be second to Abbeydorney, and I could see him putting it together right away at a big price.

10 Rock on Line is 0 for 10 and draws the 10 hole. That isn't encouraging. I could see him picking up a slice, but will wait another day for the win slot.

Monday temp

She received mild urging at best last time, and certainly could have gotten 3rd if that was important. Hard to ignore her form, but she could bring a very short price tonight.

Friday, May 26, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 26, 2017

RACE 4

1 Wasaga Beach has missed 3 weeks now, and returns with first time lasix and Mackenzie driving, as the colony is thin tonight with the action at London. She now drops in class and has had 3 bad posts in a row, one of which she won from anyway. She is usable here if you are looking to go deep, which looks like a good move in this field.

2 Barockey typically shows bad form, which she has for a few weeks, and then pops up and races better without warning. This looks like that type of situation. She isn't reliable, but you can rely on her showing up once every 6 weeks when you thought she was to be discounted. I'm inclined to use her here. Drury does well with her when she shows up ready to compete.

3 Regal Luck beat mediocre types like Hex and Cant Stop last time at Flamboro. She has a lot more trouble at this track when not at the bottom, but she has her good nights here too. Three back she had the 9 hole and had no shot, but the previous two at this level, she was only beat a length and a bit, and was a solid 2nd the time before, with better posts. She can blast from this post and look for another soft trip. Another one to use among many.

4 Pretty Hot is hard to ignore with her current form and all the variables in play. Jason Ryan is both a high percentage driver and trainer, and very potent when he is both on that particular horse. Post 4 is a good post, and she has had 2 9's and 7 in her last 3 races, one of which she won anyway, another she was 2nd after being first over and towing the winner into a perfect trip, then last time she was parked the mile and stayed on for 3rd in very fast time. She is just hard to not like. She has made the ticket in 6 of her last 6, and her consistency and grit are her two best assets. Ryan keeps the tag on her head, so she gets to continue racing with these while performing. Big shot.

5 Topville Cheetah got the perfect steer last time from Roy. She floated out from the rail, which had a long drought before she took care of that, he made sure she maintained position without using her, then tipped as late as he could, then gradually wore down a leader that wanted to be defeated, and simply cleared and opened up. That was a class lower, and while she gets a better post, she is generally not good enough at this level, in a race where there are lots of options and possibilities. I will pass and go to others.

6 Lights Go Out is simply not getting it done a level lower, with a variety of trips and drivers, but picks up enough money that she has to move up here. I can't see her as she has been for weeks. I will need to see something positive that shows me she still has it, and is willing to give it. I will wait for that. She can be real hot and cold over the course of a year.

7 True Reflection is another who got it done with Roy a level lower, but she neither has him here, or races at that level. She has not been dangerous in her last two at this level. Pass.

8 Glamour Seelster has had 3 back now off a very long layoff. She popped at first asking, which was at this level, but was not anywhere near good enough when forced to move up. She did pace very fast back to back quarters in her last race, but she generally does not leave, so she is dependant on a hot pace and decent flow. She has a shot, but she is just one of many here. She seems to get along best with McNair, but he is not here.

9 Bet Ya is another mare who can run hot and cold over an entire year, and when she is hot, she is just short of a solid Preferred mare, but when she is cold, she can even get beat in the bottom class, even though she is a drop and pop specialist. Currently, she is somewhere in between, with flat form and a bad post. Pass for me tonight.

10 Our Hot Majorette is up against it on the class rise and 10 hole start. Another day for her.

RACE 5

1 Sharky Shark was having a lot of trouble grabbing the track last time. He left from post 1, which was noted as deep and heavy around that time, and by the time he hit the backstretch he was losing ground badly. P Mac angled him into a different path, and he picked it back up, then was back towards the inside turning for home, but had to check out of that trap and swing very wide, just missing and moving fastest of all late. However, tonight, he gets a new driver and the rail again. He will be overbet on what everybody saw last time, and I will wait for another day to play him. He appears live, but tonight is probably not his night.

2 Windsun Gotham seems to have hit a level where he might reside for a few weeks. He also loses Sylvain tonight, who is at London, and he looks to be a bit player with these. He did pace a back half in 54.4 last time, so he is progressing and will adapt to these in time. Minor shot tonight, but I like others. Randy is likely to bury him and come late for a minor share.

3 Bet on Brett drew the 7 hole at Flamboro on Sunday night in his first start of the year off 2 qualifiers. He was no match for Frontier Seelster, who was long gone on that entire field. He won a Grassroots last year and was second in a Gold, so he has some class in a field where many are suspect on that front at this point in time. He had two post 1's in both qualifiers, and thus, altogether, he must be considered potentially live if he progresses as his conditioning and experience suggest he will. I can see him being dangerous as a decent longshot option.

4 Rock This Way is a wildly inconsistent type, in that he can pace a huge mile and come right back and spit the bit off what looks to be an easy trip to score off of. Last time, he gave it up completely, and so did his connections with the NAC pipe dream hopes. I don't love him, but he is very capable of turning it right back around. He is highly inbred with Western Hanover on his top line and Modern Art as his dam sire. He is likely to be very fast at times, and totally no good many other nights. Must use, just to negate what he can do to you...which is wipe you out of the picks.

5 Dreamfair Mesa scored at the bottom conditions for non winners when he drew well and got favorable fractions on the front end. Back in with conditioned horses, he hasn't been good enough, although he has had 2 poor posts in a row. He has always been tough to read, and with a good post and an upset specialist in J Mac, I'd have to use him as well in what looks like a wide open race.

6 Mcsinner Man is a new one for Cullen, and he has missed a month now. His last quarter last time is not inspiring and I would think like most that Cullen buys in this manner he will need a start or two to figure out what works with him. Based on how fast they go at Dover and Pocono, he would need to drop a lot of time to compete with many of these. Pass for tonight and keep an eye on him for the right spot.

7 Give Em Back is a full brother to Justabit Mean, and just like her, he rarely wins. He is 5 now, and has 3 lifetime wins. He is puzzling to consider in this spot. I can't see him.

8 Jrs Big Buddy moved into Carmen's barn 3 back, and moved over to Flamboro for more reasonable competition. With post 8 and his current form, and serious class rise, I cannot see him for the win spot.

9 Western Hill paced in 49.3 over Lexington last year chasing some bearcats, for which he was within range of how they were performing. This is his first start of the year, I suppose as a prep for the Somebeachsomewhere and NAC, as he is still paid in to those. His qualifiers are spaced out and he is now 18 days from the last one. I would be inclined to toss him for this start, but I'd probably use him for 20c on any pick just in case he is sorted out. He has a monster class edge on this entire bunch, but that isn't always enough when you are first off a layoff, post 9 and have a driver who has never handled you before.

RACE 7

1 Waasmula loses Trevor tonight, and that is a big difference, as he seems to get the most out of her. She is not impossible, but with the new driver, the post and that she is meeting many who have beaten her lately, I will pass on here here.

2 Wrangler Magic probably needed a start last time, and also drew poorly. She had the 7 hole in the Matchmaker final and got parked to the half, and then faded. Before that, she was fairly solid and beat this group in the winter. I could see her turning it around here, as one of many who will give the 4 a tough go if she wants to keep the ball rolling in this class. Saftic has usually done well with this type of mare in the past. I'd use her in the picks.

3 Wiggle It J has really come alive for Cullen since he has had her, rising from the bottom to the top in 6 starts. This is a stiff test though, and I will have to see her adapt to a deep field of talented ones she has never been measured against. I like others.

4 Sandbetweenurtoes is hard to go against with her very sharp current form and obvious class. However, I will here. They all go down, and there are enough options in this race to think at least will run her down. Risk/reward. She is likely to be a very short price.

5 Bedroomconfessions is a classy mare, with 875k made lifetime. She was razor sharp in the spring, but has tailed off quite a bit into May. She was given a short rest, and qualified back sharply to Lady Shadow 7 days ago. Randy does very well with her and he is not likely to bury her like he does most that look like they might need one. She could be the one to take the 4.

6 Request for Parole just cant quite get there with these, and now the class usually shows 2 or 3 tough options ahead of her, not just 1 like she hit in the winter. This field is deep. I like others more than her.

7 Ms Mac N Cheese tailed off sharply in the winter, as she had raced tough for more than 2 years straight. She appeared spend and worn out. She did still earn though, and now she returns at the highest level. She will drop some money if she just tags along for a couple of starts, and then get to drop when she has some fitness and is fresher. That should be the spot to go to her if she shows she has benefitted from the rest.

8 Much Adoo was very sharp and well driven last time by Trevor, who attacked a soft leader and opened enough daylight to hold off the one challenger who didn't have enough stretch to mow her down. She paced her own back half in 54.2, and is a longshot to consider in this race if you are going deep. This is an obvious big step up, but she was a solid 3rd with these on April 14th, and has done okay with them before.

9 P L Hurricane loses Randy to the 5 and draws bad. She likes to be up close and stay in, pouncing on whatever they give her that night. This doesn't look like that night. She has had 6 straight good posts, and while she has raced great, that flatters her form. Lets see her tackle this bunch from a disadvantage.

Monday, May 22, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 22, 2017

RACE 3

1 Beyombo got a pretty good steer last time, getting away 4th and staying there, swinging out in the lane with a clear shot to get 2nd, but he seemed to be going all he could go and it just wasn't good enough. He looked like a prospect in the winter, when they were going slower and the better horses had not come out yet. This race comes up pretty soft relative to the Classic Pro's and others he has met lately. I still need to see more but he is possible in with this group.

2 Rock N Fantasy faced the double edged sword last time. He had the far outside, left out, but had to take a seat and then stayed in while he had one in front who wasn't very live, and one beside who was going the wrong way, but wasn't doing it fast enough. McNair bided his time, and the rail opened up, allowing him to pace forward and be a solid 3rd to 2 pretty nice prospects. As the rail was deep and hard to travel around that time, his race and effort looks pretty good overall. He meets a group here he can beat, and I'd want about 3-1 to make that value. He won on the front, breaking his maiden on March 23rd, and McNair is likely to put him there again. The names of some of the ones that have beaten him recently, Southwind Diesel, Classic Pro, Stealth Bomber, are pretty tough customers with high aspirations that he mostly avoids here.

3 Sedona Seelster is one that fooled me, and I am fully prepared to admit that. Mid winter, I couldn't see why he was racing at WEG, when he looked like a so-so B track maiden type. That is why Doug Hie is who he is. He saw the potential for this one to get better as he goes, and he has. He still has trouble sealing the deal with the better ones he meets in here, but he has very good tactical gate speed, and he is gradually coming into his own overall. He is however 1 for 40 over the last two seasons, and beat a very weak maiden group in the dead of winter to get the one win he did. I'm not sure at this point he has 52 in him, and that looks like the speed the winner will go here. Bit player with a minor shot if the logical ones don't perform.

4 Undrafted has had a variety of trips, and none of them have resulted in a win or even a close miss. I see too many options in here to think he steps up and even if he does, takes them all.

5 Kazimoto gets Trevor, as J Mac is in the penalty box for two race days. He has longshot potential for a variety of reasons. First, he gets post 5, which is a very good leaving post position, and he picks up a driver who likes to blast when he gets a horse he has not driven before. Secondly, he took back last time and was not going to gain on the contenders off that trip. He paced his back half in 55.2, and that seems like a live enough horse to consider. He was a solid 2nd the start before that when he got out closer. He is usable as an upset option for the picks.

6 Rebellious reminds me a lot of Shamballa. Not that he is likely to have to crazy overall speed that one does when all is said and done, but he came to Zeron as a project, and Zeron is taking his time and teaching him to be a racehorse. In start one, he was floated out for position, but he was so grabby, for safety's sake Zeron had to pull and put him on the front, where he daylighted that group with ease. Last time, he was taken off the gate, floated out again, but this time he drove in a more manageable way, picking up cover, and following it willingly. However, it was immediately dead cover, he had to go 3 deep on the turn around it, which he did, and he was digging all the way to the wire. He paced his own back half in 55.3, wide for most or much of it. I could have listed him on top, in what was a toss up call, but he is still a bit green and he is likely to take more money than my top choice. Could be either of them. I expect this one to progress to be a Gold type colt in a few more starts. He is on the same cross as Somebeachsomewhere, who is also the sire of Shamballa. Zeron seems to know what to do with these types to max out their potential.

7 Face of War loses McNair, as he sticks with my top choice, but picks up Roy, so he is still in solid hands. His last mile is troubling though, if you are playing for a winner here. He gapped the winner badly last time at Flamboro off a sweet pocket trip, and his back half quarters don't stack up with the better ones in here. I have to see him compete at this track, but for tonight, I prefer others.

8 Homey Joe jumps into the deep end tonight, and has a driver who doesn't drive much, and post 8 to try it with. However, he did pace London in 56.3 last year, and that is not to be taken lightly. He looks to be a solid Grassroots type of horse, but he is not an Ontario Bred. He meets a few in here who look a notch above that type of class. Pass and watch.

RACE 4

1 Four Card Major raced on very short rest last time, and as he is not a very sound horse, that worked against him. As always, he tried hard and he was competitive. He looked to be showcased then, with a discount and he was sold after the race to the new connections. Post 1 here will likely doom him to a long trip again, and in spite of picking up Roy, coming back on more reasonable rest, and getting back in the softer claiming condition, I rate him a minor shot. He is likely to be overbet.

2 Lively Freddie takes a minor class drop here, and Nixon is good at tuning them up and finding a level to make money with them. His slow starts are a problem though, and I haven't seen any progress on that front. He did take 3 seconds off his previous race, and that does indicate some progress, although time can be deceiving as a stand alone factor. He had interference the start before that, and made a break in his 4yo debut. He could have hidden form and he paced in 54 over Georgian last year. He is chancy, but that is the nature of this class as a rule.

3 Cam Engine didn't race as a colt, but appears to be putting it together as he ages. Some Camluck's do that. He has the magic Camluck/Artsplace cross, and his dam, Loving Place, comes from the family of Camtastic, and many other very good ones. He has some potential built within his genes, and could blossom as he finds his way. He is starting on this circuit at the bottom level they offer. Last time, he made a nice post parade appearance, took back to the tail with a 10 hole start but only got beat 4 lengths at the wire. He is a slow starter, but looks like he could get away 6th or 7th with this better post. I could see him picking them all off in his 3rd start to try this class. Upset call.

4 Mammoth Jack seems to be the type of bit player in this class that wins this class on nights when its hard to like any short priced horses and he is around most of the time anyway. I give him a minor shot because of all of that. His win record is not bad, albeit a B track enhanced record.

5 Rockin Ronnie makes his 2nd start for Budd for a purse, but maintains the same connections he has had all along. I recall he needed a lot of encouragement to go forward in his races last year, and only once did that play out as a win. He qualified back okay after running at the start in his Flamboro debut for Budd, and dives into a low conditioned claimer here. Just another longshot who could win this in a race where you should be looking for one and forgiving big time flaws, which this one has.

6 Jet Black Cadillac is 1 for more than 50 lifetime, and even with the solid post and looking for something longer priced to play in this race, this is one I cannot go to. Too many chances and fails.

7 Badstormanyport picked up 2nd last time, beating a horrid bunch that were behind him, but nowhere near the winner, who daylighted the entire field for his first win in many years. He is likely to take some tote money this time, and he is possible. He is usable as an option if you want to go deep here, but he does find ways to lose races.

8 Kwicky Kwanzaa had post 1 last time, and he didn't race bad. He draws outside here, but Phil takes him over two others who look viable, and that is a plus. He is a reasonable longshot that needs a lot of things to go his way, but might get it done if they do.

9 Oforpetesake got out near the top from the best post last time and turned that pocket trip into a win as he just sailed up the rail. Post 9 is a much different ballgame. I like enough others in here to pass on him.

10 Meabhrach raced well last time, but wasn't nearly as good as the time before. Perhaps the bump he got on the trainer change has a shelf life. Post 10 is just about enough reason anyway for me to look elsewhere when he has 1 win in 3 years.

RACE 5

1 Dubious Claim is a terrible starter, and he doesn't do much once in the race. He is really up against it here from the rail. I cannot see him under any circumstances.

2 Shagnwiththedragon qualified well for McCabe, who sends them out ready, and he made a very nice post parade appearance last time. However, he stepped on the wheel of the 2nd place finisher and lost the win because of it. None of that was his fault, and the only knock I would have is he never moved off the rail until very late. Obvious shot chance, but he is still green and there are some options here to go against him.

3 Jaydens Place is a 4yo maiden with 12 3yo starts under his belt. He needed 3 qualifiers to get back racing. I will take a watch and wait attitude with him this time. He will need to take more time off his performance before he can tackle some of these.

4 This Is My Song was the beneficiary of some crashing and banging in the backfield last time, but to his credit, he made the most of it and got 3rd money, no threat to the 2 classy ones in front of him. He is hard to like, in that he is 0 for 16, but also has 3 bad posts in his last 6 lines. He is possible, but he hasn't contended for the win spot yet. Your call.

5 Casimir Quasimodo has some breeding behind him, as he is a half brother to Moving Pictures, Mr Massimo, and Mambo Italiano, all high end winners with big bankrolls made. He is also a sibling to Casimir Operaqueen, who did nothing at 2 and 3, but came alive at 4 and was a decent low condition horse at this track last fall. Joe C has had him all along and he hung on to him. That says something, as he doesn't normally do that with horses that don't pay their way. In his return qualifier, he chased 3 top stakes horses, and couldn't go with them when they kept going at the end. Not really fair for a green maiden to chase high end stakes horses. He could be better right off the shelf, so, its a post parade call for me. If you are concerned he can be a lot more than he shows to date tonight, just use him and negate the unknown factor in play here.

6 Master the View didn't win in 11 starts at 2, but he was near the money most nights, and made the Grassroots final. He qualified back okay, and Jack Darling has no need to show anybody how fast his horse is when no money is on the line. He paced in 54 last year and has an experience edge on these. Minor shot, but not my top pick. Based on his breeding, I have to see him parade.

7 Three More Smiles goes 2nd off the layoff here, in what was a decent first effort for the season. He did look green trying to go around bad cover in the last turn, then completely blew that turn on his own, ending up 6 or 7 wide, and then suffered uncharted interference when there was a jam up right to his left. He finished okay off all that, but still hung a shade. He won once in 13 starts at 2, and he had to go to Grand River to get that. He was kept paid up to the NAC, which is puzzling, but they must think that he has a lot of talent and upside..or...they smoke crack and just cant think straight. I'm not sure which, but he has a shot here considering who his trainer is and the driver steering tonight, who drives him for the 2nd time in a race and 3rd time overall. He looks like a one brush, one speed type, and I'm sure Roy has figured that out. He needs to leave and sit, and hope to score like Bettim Chris did when Roy first drove him to his win a month ago. One of many to think about here.

8 Hermanus was one Roy turned down for Three More Smiles. He draws poorly again and doesn't look like one of the better ones in here. He is taking time to get it together, and might be better off at Grand River or Georgian when they open.

9 Maverick Joe was a first time starter last time, and he went to the back, followed from a distance, and brushed late but was no factor, taking his time down to 56. He draws bad again, but he might be the type that progresses a bit each start and then finds the right mix of experience and post improvement. I will wait and watch.

10 Mckinley gets the 10 hole but picks up Gingras. He also has a very low percentage trainer, and he also can be dangerous at times on his own. I cant back him.

Saturday, May 20, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 20, 2017

Race 2

1 Stuck In My Spanks kept it together last time, but that was about all she did and she was not in the picture when the other 3 ahead of her were battling for the win. Post 1 will hurt one like her who has issues going to the gate. I suppose she has a minor shot for the top 2 positions, if, she behaves, the flow tows her, and the heavy fave bombs out. That is a lot to count on.

2 Paradise Image tried to wire them last time, but she couldn't take them all the way. She is learning, maturing and improving, but maybe she is about a month or two from getting there, and she is in a position where she needs to be that horse now. I like others better, for now, but she looks like a prospect as the summer progresses.

3 Magic Presto needs only to get a clean trip, show up, and be herself. She has 2 seconds on this entire field, and the fear factor that most don't want to try her and lose their shot at a big 2nd money prize. She trots, she should win this easy. I'd think she is 1-9 when the bell rings.

4 Mrstery Bear is a fast leaver and she will follow well. That gives her every chance to get as much as she can. She will need others to run or not perform to do any better than 3rd, and she is no cinch for that. I'd think she is in play if you want to take a shot against the bridgejumper that will be betting big dollars to place on the 3. Being able to leave and get ahead of any trouble that might happen is a strong plus in these types of races.

5 Expose Yourself is a very aggressive filly, as you can see by her race lines, and mostly the 2nd last one at London. Last time, she was trying to leave a ton, so much so Henry had to keep her under control so that she didn't over trot herself and run. She settled into the 2 hole, but couldn't go on with the classier ones she met then, and meets again. I don't know that she can beat 57 at this point and might be the type that is a half mile track specialist who goes 57 there and gets rewarded for that, but comes back here and gets nothing for the same speed.

6 Gravitator was well prepped by Blais, and well driven by Roy last time. Post 1 start, he just laid off, found the flow, which was poor, came out around that late when he had his spot sewn up for the final, mowed down the leader, but the pocket horse got a jump on him. She figures obviously, but, in these types of races, horses that figure don't always get it done when they get ambitious and tackle more vigorously the strong favorite. I will play that somehow she battles and comes up short. Minor use for the place position, but I like others for the price in that spot.

7 Royal Witch sat out of it last time, but moved late to be a clear 2nd to the classy winner she had no intention of bothering with. She won the race she was there to win, which was clearly 2nd best. She did look better than most of the ones who raced in the other division, so, she has a shot to pick up 2nd money here, and even win if something goes wrong with Magic Presto. She is still a maiden, but she doesn't act like it. She seems to have her breaking issues from last year sorted out.

8 Anikadabra was solid at 2, but has not come back as good yet. Post 8 here, and she barely made the final. Pass for me until I see her step up her game to this level of competition. I'm not even certain she dominates the Grassroots if she goes back to that class looking for wins.

9 Tymal Reign is an 8 time maiden who was clearly raced last week to make the final, and she did just that, getting 3rd money while not any kind of threat to the top 2. She had post 1 last time, so her effort was good all things considered, but post 9 here in with all the ones she couldn't handle and a few more live ones from the other split. She is hard to like for the ticket.

10 Holiday Promise was in the flow last time, following the winner, but she dropped off sharply when the real racing started to take place. Post 10 here, and she looks impossible and is hoping for 5th money, which is a longshot. Others are taking their time below 57, she seems to have hit a wall at that number.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 18, 2017

RACE 1

1 Eve Duharas doesn't appear to be much stock. She is 4 now, and she has 1 lifetime win, taken at Rideau last August when Pierre Bovay had her. In that race, she was the longest shot on the board at 21-1 in a 7 horse field where she was sent to the top and wired them. Since then, she has done zip. She has moved to Ben B's barn, and two qualifiers in, there doesn't seem to be any progress at all. She was 9th of 9 in the last one, way back the entire way, never gaining. She will have to be seen for future plays. Not tonight for me.

2 Hab Faith didn't win in 8 starts last year, but she was fairly steady and competitive. That is half the battle in these trot maiden races when there are no future bearcat standouts like there was on Monday in the 3rd race. That is in her favor tonight. She seemed to do her better work last year at the B tracks in the Grassroots when she had good posts and got out ahead of any commotion. When she tried the Grassroots on her return to Mohawk, she was unlucky in that she hooked Magic Presto, a Breeders Crown winner, and Anikadabra, a Grassroots final winner who rarely lost at 2. She was shut down after her next start, when it was obvious she was tired and others had caught up to her. Her return qualifier on May 12th was good, but not spectacular. She is in the mix, but others look a bit better to this point. If they behave, she is likely chasing their tails. If they don't, she could fall into a win here.

3 Asa Im Ready did not race at 2, and debuts off one qualifier with Per holding the lines. As noted this week, the rail is very deep and bad for any horse, let alone a green trotter. That is to be taken into account here as she starts her career. She is perhaps she is better than we think, and even if she goes evenly here but shows flashes of talent, I might be tempted to take her next time at a price, on the premise she had some things against her in the qualifier and Per is test driving and tuning her tonight. Some back story on the horse and connections. Her dam, All Ready Hanover was also no good at 2, but they bought her for 5k at the Harrisburg mixed sale, and turned her around completely at 3, winning a division of the Casual Breeze in 1:53.4. They kept the dam and bred her to Muscle Massive, an odd choice if you race primarily in Ontario, so obviously they have a reason to do that. These people know trotters. She is one to watch. Because of all that, I'd be tempted to toss her on the pick 5 to be safe, although, again, she is likely out for a training mile tonight. According to Hamilton, she is still eligible to the Hambo Oaks. That speaks volumes at this stage.

4 Regal Magician has 2 qualifiers under his belt, where in both, 4 days apart, he started way back. In the 2nd one, he picked up the bit and worked for his position on the outside, fading late to a pretty nice trotter in Dancer Hall. He is obviously learning as he goes, but he does most everything right so far and he shows nice back half speed, whether he parks or he just follows. That is good to see when you are trying to figure out if one like this will go forward and when he might do that. Slow starts in races like this though can get you a lot of road trouble and even some dodging runners when you would rather be trotting into contention. He was a big ticket yearling, his dam has decent pedigree on her side and won a few races while bagging 73k. He is possible, but I will have to see him parade and how he acts when the real racing is done at night. Usable, but must be seen.

5 Dunbar Hall is still learning, and the learning curve appears fairly slow with this one. He is a full brother to Danielle Hall, who was a very good and reliable 2yo, but terrible at 3 and never returned to be anything after that. This guy couldn't get it together at 2, but he did trot in 55.2 over The Red Mile on the one day when he did to get 2nd money in the Bluegrass. He paraded last time like I expected him to, jumping around and running, but got his act together going to the gate, where he was floated out carefully by JJ, making his way to the top, but handling him like that to keep him going cost him late when he got tired. He is progressing, and has a shot tonight, but I still prefer others. He should make a decent older horse, even a solid fall 3yo when he puts it all together. This is just a straight maiden, so, he doesn't have to be a finished product to beat these. Shot.

6 Late Shift will be my top choice off the variables and for the price I expect to see when I consider how the raceline looks on the page to those who wouldn't take the time to watch his last race. He has post 6 tonight, and very little speed inside him. Last time, he left hard and had the lead, but let Per's horse--the favorite--go to the top and followed him all the way to the last turn. It was an awful night, and the track was bad, Per's horse sat in J Mac's lap, and he had nowhere to go for most of the stretch, finally just giving up and coasting in to finish 4th after a horrid shuffle. He is 0 for 10 lifetime, but kept decent company last year, shows to be a consistent and reliable leaver, and has solid yet unspectacular speed. I would think a few in here will go on to be much better class horses than him, but for tonight, he could be in the right spot to get the job done.

7 Pinecone Pete is a homebred making his first lifetime start off one qualifier, which frankly was nothing to write home about. He is another that has to be seen. Pass for tonight.

8 A Doozy made 10 starts last year, including a 90-1 attempt at the Peaceful Way that was grounded before it could even take off as she on the run before the start and she never trotted. She did the same thing the next start, regrouped with trotting hopples, but, it didn't help and broke again one more time in October before she was shut down. She qualified back okay and while she is a huge longshot, she isn't a toss either. Fillion and Milner have done pretty good together in the past on some young horses. Consider.

9 Lady Justice couldn't get a win in many starts last year, but she did make 52k and also made the Gold Superfinal. She qualified back decent but she draws bad here. Her experience and class, with the speed she has already shown are all pluses, and in that many of these will either run off the gate or take way back, post 9 isn't the post 9 we view it as in a race like this. If she can get away 4th or 5th and sit to the last turn, she is possible. I'd use her among many in the pick 5.

10 Routine was a solid 3rd in his 3yo debut, and while that was a good recommendation, I find lots of options in this race and a 10 hole leads me to think he is not one of them here. Phil goes to the obvious better prospect with the trainer that has the stock he wants to keep driving. Roger takes over. Pass and watch for another day.

Overall synopsis of this race. Lots of options in this race. I would be going 7 deep and hoping something pops from the ones I mentioned who could tonight. It only takes one of them to do that. Even if a chalkier one does it, its still a lukewarm chalk and you aren't locked into a 1-5 shot when you went 7 deep. Post parade is important here, and you get to see them all for a few minutes before you put the bet in. That is the advantage of Race 1 in a Daily Double or pick 5 bet.

RACE 2

1 Happy Trio was pretty reliable at 2 and only really didn't perform when he made a break at Grand River, which is forgivable. He made the Gold Superfinal, drew the 9 hole, but still got up for 4th money off a back end trip. He has qualified back adequately, with the 2 qualifier variable O'sullivan seems to like to use to make sure his are ready to perform right off the shelf. He gets to start back with a soft nw2 class and that should have been enough to make him a solid top pick. However, post 1 is horrendous currently, and I'm sure he is being pointed at some pretty big local dances that are close on the horizon. I doubt he is blasted out and while I will stick with him on top, he is no single or sure thing tonight. One of many. Slight edge.

2 Lawrencetown Beach like his older full brother Melmerby Beach, he has a lot of talent, but just as many issues to go with them. He is also being aimed at big dances as that one was without the on track performance to back that up that one had. He got out on the engine last time with a jam up in the backfield taking many out of the mix, and a couple of others who didn't want to move early, so he got butter soft fractions to half to accelerate off of. Which he did. While I think he has a bright future, that is not the analysis I am doing here. For tonight, and the likely short price he brings, I will go against him. He will have to progress a lot to handle some stakes placed and decent winners. These aren't green maidens. No free pass this time.

3 Bills Fella has some ability, but can also be dangerous at times. He fell in one of his early starts last year, and when Saftic took over, he was very careful to keep him back and out of trouble, gradually letting him find himself and work towards winning form, and he got it done. McNair was at the lines when he fell last year, and he ran on him off the gate in the first qualifier this year. Saftic got him around in the 2nd one, but again, he kept him well back and out of trouble. That wont play with this bunch. Pass and watch. I'd think he is going into a Grassroots at some stage, and unless he becomes more reliable, he is a good play against at short odds at a track where neither Saftic or McNair are traveling to have him stand on his head into the first turn. He is on my watch list, and not because he is some live prospect.

4 Twin B Cowboy could possibly get it done tonight and I say that for one reason. He was fairly classy last year, making the rich NYSS final at Yonkers and getting 3rd money, and it was noted by the talking heads last time that Dr. Moore said he didn't warm up good, and he didn't seem to like the track when he was raced, although he wasn't horrid either. He comes back on two weeks, and I suspect Moore has attempted to rectify whatever his problem was. I don't like the horses breeding at all, being a Roll With Joe from a The Panderosa mare, which screams to me a horse who wont fight for the win when asked to do so. I would expect if he is live tonight that Trevor puts him on the engine and tries to wire them. Will that work? I don't know, but he is an option if some other horses have issues, namely the 1 and 2, and he can get away with a soft 2nd quarter. Reasonable shot.

5 Clouseau Hanover is 1 for 24 lifetime and that was a win off a very good trip deep in the winter. He appears likely to be racing in a 20k conditioned claimer that we see later on in this card by the fall. He started out as a prospect last summer, but as many of us know, most fail on that trail and look to find levels and develop later when they put it together. He doesn't look dangerous in this race and possibly could use a trainer change as well. He isn't performing.

6 In Spades broke his maiden March 19th at Flamboro but couldn't take the maidens at this track when he still had earning room left to do that. Its not many horses that never break their maiden at this track that move up to nw2 and face the types he meets here with high aspirations and the actual performance to justify those hopes. He is hard to like, even with the best post and best current driver at this track. He does consistently finish well, and that will serve him well if he finds the right field to make that profitable. This doesn't look like that spot.

7 Fusion Five broke his maiden in March, before the better colts started to surface. He didn't have much next out, and was given a short rest. I don't like him tonight, but he might be another that finds a level and will improve with 5 or 6 more starts. He probably would have been better off staying a maiden for 5 more starts, but he won himself into a tough spot. Watch for tonight.

8 Biggieteen ships in from The Meadows from a low claimer, off almost a month and draws bad. That is the trifecta of negatives to start his stay at Chez WEG. Just for kicks, lets add two more. He is a Mister Big. Nuff said there, and he broke his maiden in fractions that would gap out in a qualifier at some B tracks around here. I'm sure there is a reason time was taken to send him to one of the toughest harness circuits around from one that lets you race in cheap conditioned claimers. What that is, you got me? All that being said, he is probably a cinch.

9 Down on My Luck won a Grassroots at Grand River at 2 by getting a very cheap half and using that to get home first. He went backwards entirely after that. He draws bad here, against a bunch that look a lot more talented than him. I will have to see where he is at, and rate him for the likely Grassroots shot he will be taking this summer. Not tonight.

10 Some Attitude is named right, as he has one. An attitude that is. Not always a bad thing, when you learn how to manage it. It comes attached with a lot of raw speed, which is buried in his high end breeding on both sides of the pedigree. P Mac is his regular ride and that is important for one like him, but he has to take his own charge in this one. Randy is MacIntosh's preferred colt driver anyway, so he will be a capable replacement. Post 10 tonight and he is getting a late start for one that has aspirations of racing in the NA Cup. He paced in 52 over Delaware during Jug week, and that is nothing to discount, although he did that chasing Downbytheseaside's tail from a long distance back. Pass and watch tonight. He has enough strikes to leave him off the pick 5 ticket tonight. Next week will be a different story if he shows me he has come back more mature and as strong as he was last year. He was very physically imposing on the track last year. That is to his credit going forward. He just needs his brain to catch up to his body.

RACE 3

1 Grana Padanno has upset potential in with this group. Post 1 and Mario are strikes against, but price makes it tolerable to accept that. He had post 10 last time against a decent group that stack up pretty well with this bunch, top to bottom. Underneath that line, he has two rails and a 9 hole on this circuit, where he raced decently, got a cheque in two of those, and gunned out from the outside in the other and paid the price for that. More recently, he went to Flamboro, where he won one of those and was a solid 2nd in the other. I can think of good reasons not to like many of the apparent viable ones here, so, I can list him underneath my top choice with a shot if he can get away clean, close up enough to pop out on the turn with a one move brush to try and get there. Price play add.

2 P L Jerico held good form moving up the ladder but he seemed spent from the get go last time and backed away badly. That was 17 days ago, and he just doesn't figure in here with a reasonably deep and tough bunch. His back to back wins have backed him into a corner and he will have to wait a few starts to get out of jail. Pass.

3 Mass Production did little wrong last year and did it right when it mattered most on Superfinal night when he trotted away from them all like they weren't there. Upon his return, he has used the 2 qualifier preparation, which seems to be the new normal, and in both, he toyed with the ones behind him, mostly inferior and green horses trying to stay out of their own way. Nevertheless, he is very talented, one year older and looking to have a big season and earn big bucks. No reason for Zeron to go wild and take shots at salty veterans like Tony Soprano, Grana Padanno and Exemplar. Minor shot on talent, but hard to like on age, experience and motivation to try tonight. I will leave him off the pick 5 and go deeper in race 1, where that is likely to pay off and is wiser in terms of chance of getting upset.

4 Sass if this horse was a pacer, he would be Melmerby Beach. He has a world of talent, and also a ton of issues that derail him some nights. The obvious one being prone to making breaks and completely blowing up. Perhaps he comes back at 4 and matures out of that. Some do. Like others of Steacy, he qualified but didn't race right away, and now has had 3 weeks between that appearance and this race. The one the other night with that variable raced short. I'd have to think this one is up against it tonight on all of that summed together. I would expect the typical J Mac steer here when he has one of these....take back, stay back, be 4th over and then come wide and brush late for whatever that gets. To me, that probably is 4th or 5th here, possibly 3rd if one of the contenders jumps it off.

5 Tony Soprano looks to be building towards a win and a progression to the Preferred. He was a topnotch 2yo who faced the best and held his own. His 3yo year never worked out, but that happens with some. He followed cover flow last time, but it was excessive and took him wide, while the dropping winner opened up daylight and hung on for dear life. He came at her and the other one but couldn't reach. He drops a notch from that level and gets a solid post. He looks like the one to me, but he is also beatable and has showed many times he doesn't always decide he feels like racing that night. Top call, but others need to be used as backups.

6 Batoutahill concluded a very good run with a 53.3 score in March, and was shut down to be bred. She returns now, and she probably needs at least one to tackle this bunch, which are a much tougher group than she was facing in the winter. I will watch.

7 Duh Bubbees left out last time, first off a long layoff and one qualifier, and while he was hung out the entire way, he did clear and make the lead, only to be swamped and passed by a few and the winner just sailed by them all. He moves up here, as 5th money earned him out of that class. No shot tonight, but the way he was gassed out last time, coupled with the big price wins he has produced before makes me keep an eye on him for the drop back down. He can be very variable, even more so than most trotters.

8 Exemplar has had terrible posts on the page for a long time, outside of one 3 hole at Woodbine when he got 2nd to a steamrolling Sargeant Seelster at that stage. He gets another bad post, but gets 2nd time Roy, and all of that in sum gives him a shot to turn the tables on these. He is another who has been higher up and done it before, not in the so distant past that you can't make a case he is one to consider as a longshot play add. That is my call on him tonight.

9 Charlie Is a Joker gets class relief tonight, but he was 75-1 last time, so, its more class reality here. He also gets the 9 hole and is the B team of the stable entry, as Mario opts for the rail horse. He wired a soft bunch a class below this, and on the right day and time of year can even compete at the Preferred level. This is not that time of the season, his form is not great anyway, and he is likely just out to drop another line.

RACE 4

1 Malwhere didnt race at 2, but looks to have been trained down in Florida by Fred Grant, of Cambest fame. He is on the same cross as Melmerby Beach and his full brother who races earlier on the card. Ergo, big speed potential. His dam is a sister to Malicious, and he had both speed and class as a racehorse. He debuted last time at Pocono on the ship up north from Florida, left hard for a 2 hole, which became a 3 hole, which was no problem for him as he was gapping badly in a very hot pace for maidens. Eventually he came back out on the last turn and finished evenly in a slowing last quarter. He shows up in Blake MacIntosh's barn and draws the rail tonight. I don't expect much from him tonight, but he is one to watch.

2 Aphro Star was 80-1 last time, but was well meant. Fillion left out hard, sat a 2 hole which became a 3 hole, which became a road block when he wisely stayed in but was behind a stopper, got out on the turn, had to tip 3 wide, but came on late as the pace was picking up sharply on a very rainy and wet track and night. He didn't race much at 3, and has just gotten going now at 4, but he looks like a prospect for as long as his legs last. Fillion and Larocque have a positive ROI together and are winning at a 22% clip. He is a top contender for a price with the likelihood the 6 and 7 both take heavy win money here. Of note, in one of his two starts last year, the last one, he won a race in good time for Rideau with two sharp back half quarters. He is a winner among non winners with good form and 3rd off the shelf. All positives when you get a price.

3 Hes Gone Badder went to Flamboro last time and drew the rail, looking to show he is competitive so Joe Hudon can move him and get on with better stock. He got the lead, he got the cheap 2nd quarter, but he also hooked a tough colt for Flamboro types from the Blais barn and he couldn't handle him. He is now 0 for 16 lifetime and gets son Steven to drive him tonight. He looks to be in very deep water with this bunch. He can hope for 5th, but I can't see that he could do any better tonight. He might mature into something, but he is not there yet.

4 Rock on Line raced in the NYSS last year, where he was mostly overmatched, and has moved this year to O'sullivans barn for one of his better and deeper pocketed owners. They owned the sire of this colt, and I'm sure that is an attraction for them on this one. In his first try last time, he drew post 10, went to the back of the bus, where it turned out that was not safe, as he was completely wiped out before the half. To his credit, he regrouped and paced back to back 27.3 quarters out of sight of the field and most eyes. The better post, the 2nd off the shelf and in the new barn, the license to improve off interference and J Mac, who seems to win with these types every now and then, he is another I can use as a possible upset play.

5 Devils Peak has missed 17 days and has done little in the starts he has had to inspire any confidence in me. He now meets tougher and tougher every time, and he looks to be in for a long stay in this class if he doesn't head to the B tracks, if that is plan B. When Georgian opens, that might be a good fit for him. As they haven't tried Flamboro or London, I'm guessing a half mile track is not a good option. Pass.

6 American Sportsman was another bothered by one who stumbled directly in front of him last time and McNair had to veer left and around him into the safety lane, which he did. He then caught up to the 7 horse in this race, followed him but couldn't keep up, and was also steppy and iffy near the wire. He also didn't parade very sound, and being that he is a half brother to Sportswriter, and other pretty nice, but not so durable ones, and the gaps and problems he seems to have had getting into racing shape and staying racing, I will take a pass on him tonight. I'm on the fence as to which direction he will end up going, but my hunch is backwards.

7 Hurricane Beach unlike others, had a clean trip last time, but he was laid way off the pace, came for the leader, but the pace was picking up and he was never going to get to that one. He was a very big ticket yearling, but he has had issues along the way, among them not making the gate and also just not even trying once. He seems to be maturing a bit and looks like a solid contender in with this bunch and the driver he retains here, but he is one of a few in my eyes, not the clear favorite or dominant enough to single. He just isn't reliable or consistent enough yet, and not my top pick either, although I concede he has a decent shot.

8 Blacky Black ships into the Jason Libby barn for his owner who has purchased him, certainly a positive, but he draws bad and he has finished terrible twice in a row at Miami Valley. I will look him over in the post parade, but unless he wows me, he is a watch tonight, not a play.

9 Big Charlie Horse is a decently bred homebred for Carmen's dad, as they raced the dam and she was a pretty good race mare in her day. He looks to have some talent, pacing a back half in 56 and change in his first try. He draws the 9 hole here for his debut, and that is enough to lay off him and watch for future plays. That is my plan with him here. Might be a decent Grassroots type for a big score come June.

10 Go Like a Pro has consistently drawn well, but hasn't done enough to get it done. He is a homebred for MacIntosh, and I suspect he is going out the barn door soon to a new home. Tonight he draws bad in with some pretty decent prospects who look far ahead of him on many variables. Pass.

RACE 5

1 Dreamfair Eternity is bred to be good, and like her mother, she is starting fairly late and doesn't look like she is in any hurry to make waves. Post 1 tonight off one so so qualifier. I will watch and see where she is at. She will have to learn to leave a lot faster than 33 seconds if she is to be viable at this track. Lets see how she improves over the qualifier.

2 Tanzanian was sent to London by McNair, but she didn't even handle those, and he moved her out the door. Based on her breeding, I would expect her to be a poor finisher, and that is what she is. I don't see the ability to keep up at this track in the stretch. Her trainer is also 0 for 18, and I would think he is waiting for Grand River where she can probably earn a decent buck this summer. Pass.

3 Delightful Space looks to have all the variables in her favor here. She gets Trevor from Young, although he has handled her well, she gets a better post, she is 2nd time over this track, she closed well first time out, and she is gaining experience after also winning 2 at Flamboro. Last time she had to close into an accelerating pace and really had little chance to do much better than she did. Robert Young is a very capable trainer and I rate her my top choice, with only two others I view as a real threat in here.

4 Pl Katnisseverdeen ships in from Tioga off one bad line, is 2nd time lasix, first time McNair and I suppose can be dangerous as maiden shippers with some speed always can. But her consistent bad last quarters are not convincing me to fear her. I will watch her for a later assessment. Tonight, I pass on her.

5 American Cheer was given every chance by Zeron last time, but she was looking for her mother at the tote board and had nothing left. She looked like a solid stakes filly at 2, and might still be that, but I have doubts she has come around yet. The fact she didn't take much tote support last time when she figured to do that suggests the people who might know know that she isn't good yet. I'd keep my eye on that variable. Minor shot on a turnaround, but I like three others better.

6 B Fifteen saved all the ground last time on a very heady steer by CC. He just kept moving up the pylons, then angled out and back in between, looked to have the race won, but the other filly just did a shade more when they were together a few steps to the wire. She looks very logical and live tonight, but, not my top call. Must use in the pick 5 and she has the right post. She looks to be a solid Grassroots filly as the summer goes on, but she has to do more than just pace fast in the last quarter, but pass horses when she get up to their wheel.

7 Lady Sherri is 0 for 19 and shows me nothing to suggest she is dangerous at the A track to this point.

8 Columnist is what she is. She is a 30 plus start maiden who has bagged 30k plus for her trainer/owner. That's okay for him. Doesn't do much for us bettors. She paced a back half in 55.3 last time. That is something and if she shows a bit more here, I might keep my eye on her for when she heads to a B track to possibly pop her cherry.

9 Northern Swift trained down and raced once at 2 off a decent qualifier, but ran in the race and was put on the shelf. She has come back ready to race now, and drew the rail last time, which probably compromised her overall chances. She came late and looked live, and while she draws the 9 hole here, she is a reasonable add if you aren't sold on too many in here, which I'm not.

10 Rose Run Samantha raced at 2, did little, has had 2 qualifiers off the shelf and now starts with Jones driving from the 10 hole. Watching tonight, but I can't see how she wins this with all that in play. Big longshot, and deservedly so.

RACE 6

1 Cersei Hanover is an interesting prospect as a new recruit to team Ben B and Mario. She draws the rail, so obviously, that is a problem, and she has been off 21 days, which is usually not good, but also indicates Ben has had time to tinker with her, which is his thing. She shows X's all over the page, so, tinkering when you have his skills is actually a good thing. Ben certainly likes and does well with both Andover Hall's and Yankee Glide's, and this mare is a cross of the two. I'd use her in the exotics, but she isn't my top choice on the likely short price and the performance of Mario as of late, and on the whole the last year or two. She wont beat me, but I won't play her straight up.

2 Deuce Deuce Deuce is a 4yo with one lifetime win, and large gaps in his schedule. He took 3 to get qualified back as he ran in two of them, then kept it together and did so again in the race last time. He is a longshot for a price if you are looking for one here. His 56.4 win last year shows he has the speed on the night he puts it together. That could be tonight. Viable iffy shot.

3 Tymal Declan is a 3yo filly who did well to stay to the slower half mile B tracks at 2 and make a bit of cash on that angle. Not so good at Mohawk, and now has returned with two tries at Flamboro, the last one where she had the lead but coughed it up. Her dam has thrown a few and they seem to have that spit the bit trait when it matters. I will lay off her here and see where she is at. She looks like B track material to me. However, so do many of these. If she had won there, she might have gained my confidence on the switch here.

4 Literally was an early scratch.
5 Tougher Than Ever came off the shelf with two bad posts and not much of a resume to begin with. As an 80-1 longshot and higher the time before, I have to see him perform to some level before I start thinking he is going in the right direction. Not so far. I like others enough to pass on him for now.

6 Warrawee Shipshape has a new trainer, a well known trotting man, but the same connections in term of driver and owner. He made a few bucks early by being ready and going enough before others were ready to. He started to stop badly once they caught up to him. I have to see him on the track with the new trainer working on him. For tonight, pass.

7 Svensson looked like a player last time, and Fillion put him in the perfect spot to take them, but he hung badly. He gets on the lasix program here, and I suppose that is saying he bled last time and that is why he could not perform. He beat maidens off a pocket trip, but he is a 4yo with only 8 starts, and mostly they have not been great. He is shot material, but I will take my chances against him, but list him as a minor use on the picks.

8 Majestic Wanda has shown nothing to date as a 3yo, and took 3 just to get qualified. She moves into post 7, but I'm not sure she can leave enough to make that an advantage.

9 Zorgwijk Rocket was a decent 2yo last year, and looked good every time I saw him parade this winter, but he didn't perform for whatever reason. He has qualified back okay, and from post 8 I can use him if I am not sold on the logical faves in here, which I am not in any way. He wouldn't shock me, and he has some upside, along with the apparent downside of his recent performances. Trotters, especially young trotters, are very variable.

10 More Than Majestic won a grassroots last year at Sarnia in pretty slow time, as Sarnia is a freeway. Otherwise, he did little. His qualifier back was poor, with him being on the front and finishing a back half in 1:02. That wont cut it. Pass for now.

RACE 7

1 Big Chute pulled reluctantly first up last time, and it turned out there was good reason Zeron wanted to stay in, as she was pretty much done when they turned for home. Off the right trip, she is still viable for a price, but she was wildly overbet last time. I don't go near her this time for less than 8-1. I like a few other longshots here anyway, so I will pass on her for the pick 4. Being a rail starter, that is also not in her favor here.

2 Brave New World is another from Carmen's barn that was ready early but didn't make it and was shut down after one bad result. She qualified okay upon return, with some high end fillies well ahead of her. I will take a wait and see approach with her, as I can make a decent case for some of these and first time starters with an ordinary qualifier rarely pop right away unless they are meeting many who are hard to like.

3 Wicked Hill couldn't cut it with maidens at this track in 3 tries, but was more viable at the B tracks, although she didn't win either. I can't see her with this bunch as is. She will have to show me a lot more to even think she is ticket material, let alone the winner.

4 Billie Mcjean is very green but seems to have a lot of upside. Experience might be the key with this type and I would list her a fair shot in here and a use in the picks. I don't really care for any of the faves here, so she is one who could be the upsetter, as can others.

5 Loves Angel was running in horrible the entire stretch and McNair had the line in his hand to keep her from going inside the pylons. That is a Big Jim trait you see with many of them. She is probably the favorite here, and I will pass on her entirely. I just didn't like what I saw.

6 Party Beach is one who apparently showed talent at 2, but got colic and almost died. She made it, and she looked like a serious prospect parading last time. As many of Steacy's just didn't appear to be that live in the last week or so, I can play her on the angle that she was just short, or coming off a sickness, or a combo of both, and that was also her first lifetime start. Post 6 here, and she looks as good as any of these. She took her overall time down quite a bit, and that is at least a nice progression.

7 Alexa Hanover is seemingly well bred, but also a full sister to Abbijade Hanover, who took a long time to become a winner. Blais also had that one, and while Roy can make a difference here, she had to go to Flamboro to get a win, and needed to be on the front and get a cheap half. She will probably be overbet on the variables, and I will pass and go elsewhere. Minor use in the picks on the Roy angle solely.

8 Deprived makes her 3rd lifetime start but draws poorly here in what looks to be a contentious field. She certainly is an aggressive filly and likes to be out and going, just like her father did. Last time, she rated decently in the pocket, popped that and looked to sail by, but she hung badly. I will pass on her. Her time will come, but I don't see this as the spot. She should have at least passed Loves Angel, who was going sideways and had covered her up the entire way, and she couldn't even do that.

9 Macharita makes her first lifetime start off a qualifier at Flamboro, where you would have expected her to race off that scenario. The fact she doesn't suggests she could win first out there, and her connections don't want that to happen. If they don't, and they have the 9 hole here, I think they are looking for a piece of the pie, but not the biggest slice.

10 Granny Pants won twice at 2, but then she was shut down. She draws post 10 here, and I don't expect a lot of aggression in this start. She does look sharp though, so if she keeps the ball rolling and draws better next time, I'd be on board with a chance then.

RACE 8

1 True Blue Stride sailed by a fairly weak bunch who battled a bit and he just picked them off like they were not there. It gets a lot tougher with this group. I can't see him taking them. Pass.

2 O Narutac Perfetto gets some class relief here, and that is significant for him. His habitually slow starts are a problem though, and its why he is not my top choice, but something to use on the bottom of the exotics. He will have to trip out.

3 Mister Herbie is as tough and classy as they come, but lameness is his enemy and its a serious foe for him. I will have to see him parade, but I'm inclined to go to others as he is on the downside of a great career at this point.

4 Rockin With Dewey clearly had an issue on May 8th, but qualified right back 4 days later. She had a similar issue the start before, and was sick before that. I like others in this spot, and will be watching to see which one of her personalities shows up this time.

5 Streamsong is a new one for Cullen, and he has been keeping some pretty tough company in Delaware. He is 23 days out of the box, and Cullen seems to need at least one to figure these new recruits out. Pass tonight, but possibly go to him if I like what I see and he gets a bit more class relief, which it looks like he might need.

6 Big Rich drew badly last time and that cost him in the end. He gets in with easier here, and gets a good post, and a hot driver who drives him for the 2nd time. Not my top choice, but I can use him underneath as an option. He can win this if he gets out on the lead and finds someone live to follow most of the way to braven him up. Roy seems to find that trip more often than not.

7 Adversity was 2nd best last week when trying to dial in the winner who got away from him while he had traffic issues. He also gets to drop, but off sharp form, as Hamilton points out in the Journal. He looks like the one to me, and the price should be reasonable. I'd say 3-1 or slightly higher is about right.

8 Zeus Lightning has missed some time and draws poorly here. That is two strikes against a very low percentage winner on the downside of a long and successful career. I have to go to others in this spot.

9 Wild and Crazy Guy beat this class off a nice trip from a good post on a night when few saw him coming at big odds. The class is the same, but the field is much deeper here and he draws the far outside. No thanks.

Thoughts On Racing