Thursday, November 24, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 24, 2016


This is the type of race you hate to take the favorite, as they are likely to find a way to lose. I`d go 4 deep with my top 4 and that should get you to race 2.
4 Toy Cop Is obviously hard to back based on his record and that he continues to get outpaced in the lane. However, this field is so weak, if ever there was a spot where he could get to the top, and either sit in or cut it himself and save a bit instead of trying to bottom them out, this is it. He has a shot with these, only because they are that much worse than him. He took them a long way last time before giving it up late.

2 Hughgetthecredit left out and tried it first up when he was sitting 3rd at the half, he never cleared the leader and missed the ticket. This could be a good spot for him...if....he gets the pocket, accepts it, and doesn't budge until at least mid stretch. He has limited brush for this track, and has to save it to the last second. Shot.
Badstormanyport is the classic Somebeachsomewhere. He has that big rangy gait that the better ones do. It isn`t always pretty, much like Apprentice Hanover and Captaintreacherous had. But, they generate speed. Because of that, he was staked up big time at 2 and then raced hard, going fast but not making money. He was moved when he flopped, and Johnson tried to get immediate return last winter. The horse simply was spent and sore, and no matter how he tried, he couldn`t get him to go. He has had various chances to get back to the races, but shows up a month before Christmas with 6 qualifiers and this, his first race for a purse since January. Phil got him around fine in the qualifier, sitting in and following well, tipping out on the turn and storming home, under no urging in an excellent time that should handle these. I will have to see him parade though. As we saw Saturday night, a qualifier offers the chance to get away with stuff you cant in a race, when the chance of getting tested in the qualifier is almost zero. He has a history of making breaks. I want to see what he looks like. Obvious contender.

9 Mr Match on Beach  has strange variables. He didn`t race until October of his 3yo year, and yet, while he did okay in two maiden races, he was tossed into the deep end with his legs tied together attempting the Autumn Series against proven winners of 2 or more. Tonight he gets the 9 hole and a shift to Moreau with the rest of his stablemates. They have done well and most have won. I can see this one being better, on the class drop and trainer change, but getting beat tonight. Obvious contender, but I like others.

1 Southwind Savage would probably love it if they wrote a 7500 maiden claimer at this track. However, I bet his connections would not enter him in that. He is very happy to be 2nd or 3rd when he can and continue to build the bank roll. As soon as he wins, he will have nowhere to go. A poorer mans Century Churchill. Pass on the win front for me. He has had enough chances. Maybe Lasix helps him. I dont see it. Casie knows about lasix, and so does Copley. Neither of them bothered and they had him more than long enough to see if he was a bleeder.

8 Eas Ideal was slow away and handled carefully by JJ on the turns last time, trying to keep him pacing. He did, but it wasn`t pretty. He does close well if you can keep him together.  A bit like East End the other night. Weller can make them go, but one like this, its hard to win races when you have to hold them together and spot them probably 8 turning for home. He will take some money again tonight. I will pass and go elsewhere. I dont like what I see. He has never won a race at a racetrack. There is a reason for that.

5 Badlands Terror raced Monday night, so he comes back on 2 days rest. He had the 7 hole, and thus, left for position, then pulled first up, grinding his way near the lead, but never getting level with that one, and backing away before they came out of the last turn. He shows two wins in a row before that from the rail, so, he does use the advantage he gets at London well, but cant overcome the disadvantage that the 7 hole gave him. He gets back in with maidens to try this circuit. That is probably why he is entered here. He still looks up against it against a few who have more speed than him. Pass.

6 Sippen Whisky qualified one race earlier than the 3, but went 4 seconds slower. He goes back to Matheson here, and he is certainly a good horseman, but this horse looks to be too slow for this circuit. Pass and watch for tonight. I will see if he can keep up when the pace picks up on the last turn.

7 Chummy Park is a nickel bred type who has yet to win a race in spite of spending the entire year at Trois Rivieres and Rideau. Last time, he left well, had an easy pocket, but began to back away badly after the half when the pace picked up, and never got back in it. I cant see how he keeps up at this track.


1 Stormont Dundas didnt race at 2, but has made the ticket 9 of 16 times this year. He is decent gaited, can leave and will try to the wire, but is short when it matters, a sign he is his mothers son than his fathers protege. He took them a long way last time and got passed by the live pocket sitter. Post 1 for a young trotter is death most nights at Woodbine, but there are exceptions to every rule. He leaves enough to negate what some of the outside ones might do, and can accelerate into the turn and maintain position. I could see that getting him the 2 hole trip. That gives him a shot to graduate tonight.

5 Golden Man has done well at Flamboro, but he is also very headstrong and aggressive, his fathers trait, and Obrien tried to teach him last time he was here. The horse fought him and actually did a break dance leaving but kept it together and trotted the entire mile. He is a prospect as he learns, and I wouldn`t toss him tonight. Longshot chance and I`d use him in the pick 5. These types get better as they learn what they are out there to do. Right now he thinks that is to go as far and as fast as he can. If and when  he learns that his job is to get to the wire first and not the quarter pole first, he probably has enough speed to be competitive at this track.

6 Igocrazy Without U is 0 for 22 lifetime. She is searching for a place to try and change that. She wanted to go out and challenge last time, but Byron insisted she stay in and save something. Which is what she did, angled on the last turn, and trotted home well, just missing 3rd. I wouldn`t toss her, and she is a longshot chance type in a race where one of those can be viable.

8 Silky Flashy Nfast is 0 for 17 coming off a layoff. She almost broke her maiden in the summer, trotting some fast miles and picking up 2nd money in a Grassroots. She is something you dont see often in this class.....a maiden with 92k made. She will have to be seen, and I will wait on her one time and go to others. I`d think she wins in the next month and then resides at nw2 until the spring. Based on her breeding and who owns her, I could see her out to get a decent record and then bred before next summer. No need to rush her in this spot on a night when the miles are likely to be slow.

9 Andovers Choice jumped it off in the first turn last time while going along just fine. He is 0 for 24 and another who moves to Moreau, but draws badly. Test drive for this one tonight and I will watch for a future play. Note, he was an early scratch.

7 Core Fusion was at least on the gate last week and left okay. He didn`t take full advantage of his better post, and burned the chalk players. He was gapping again on the last turn and hung in the lane, which is becoming his MO. I will pass on him. He is starting to look like he might have the type of record Stormont Dundas has.

10 Vasco Bi 2yo with 2 starts and 2 breaks, and also shows fast quarters. Post 10 and Per. Watch for a later play, but not tonight for me.

2 Mister Blues is a first time starter. He was fairly impressive in his qualifier. Nose right on the gate, left out well, had the lead, trotted the turn solid and didn`t want to give up the lead when challenged. He didn`t have any resources to fight off the ones that passed him as the pace picked up big time coming home, but he didn`t quit either, lopping 4 seconds off his previous first qualifier. However, he was wonky in the lane when asked for that speed. He can go either way. I will watch him this time. Sometimes, especially when they take a long time to make the races, the more they race, the lamer and sorer they get. His mother raced and bagged almost 10k, but never won a race. That indicates she didn`t last.

3 Road Light is a first time starter off one qualifier two weeks ago. Mario got him around then, but he sticks with his brothers horse. I have to see this one, but I will pass on him this time out. He lacks the experience and overall speed he will face tonight.

4 Jagersro is 0 for 28 lifetime. She drops out of the Autumn, but she was miles over her head in that anyway. I will go to others. If she has the night of her life and beats me, so be it.


6 Entranced has 3 post 1`s and 2 post 10`s on the page. That gives him a license to have hidden form. Post 1 last time got him in a position to end up first up, which he did, challenging Rockin With Dewey off a soft half when Mario put the whip over her tail and left this one in a bad spot. He didn`t quit badly and gets a better post with Trevor back on. His trainer seems to be able to keep them going and turn ones like this around from time to time. He gets another try at this level, a level that works well for him. Top call.

1 Win the Day  goes to Boyd, as Reid has gone south for the winter. This one is prone to make breaks, as many of his sires are, but has big talent when he keeps it together, also something of a pattern with his sires foals. He won in 54.2 last year, but has not gotten his picture taken this year. J Mac sticks with him, and he got him around clean and manageable last time, leaving out from the outside, following well and behaving even when they got jammed up to the half. He was behind a stopper who backed into him but shook loose and was in a blanket photo for 3rd. That was a solid effort and he is a viable, but erratic contender at a price in this tilt.

4 Amityville Lindy made a break at the gate last week, and that was that. He did trot a big back half, which would handle most of these, and gets to drop in class, which favors him if he can keep it together. Post parade will be important with this one. I list him 3rd.

2 Five Below  is one that Adams junk wont work on, as he has issues that gas wont fix. He ran twice but now has one qualifier under his belt with Moreau. He is 1 for 33 on the year, and in the qualifier, Fillion floated him out clean, kept him very wide into the first turn, which he needed as he was locked on the right line and bearing in horrible, which he did the entire way, but cut it and stayed on well to be 2nd to one that outclassed him as the pace picked up. He will take big money on the trainer change, and I will go against him. I`m sure Moreau knows what needs to be done, but whether that can work, the jury is out.

3 Steppin Out went to the back and went around last time. She was on a big time roll in the summer, but tailed right back off. Tonight, from this post, if she is right, she will be sent right out for the lead. That gives her a shot. She closed with the pack last time but couldn`t get by Scary Good. That gives me the idea to go elsewhere. She is scratched.

7 Class Me Nice drew the 10 hole, and that gets him a pass for last time. He has had a lot of chances at various levels and posts, and does not win .

9 Muscles All Over gets the 9 hole and draws a new face on the scene, a Maritime driver who is going to try his luck in this province. He has showed talent in the past, but also has a suspect gait. He ships in from Flamboro. I will watch him once on the chance he brings him back next time to this track. He is up against it tonight.

5 Scary Good  total pass on him at this track. Even if he did trot entire miles, which he isnt doing anymore.

8 Fashion Goddess is 3 for 59 the last two years, has been off sick the entire month and was racing poorly before that. She draws the 8 hole tonight. Pass.

One of the things I like to look for in maiden races is progression. And of course, the flipside of that...regression. I think we all look for progression when we play these races. We are taught to do that. Sometimes its very obvious, as with Two Sides of Love. Other times, its hard to see and figure, with a Tisdall Hanover. And then you have Fade Away, who shows intermittent signs of progression lined with a side order of growing pains. That is what is in play here. Then you have others who have just flat out failed. The bottom half of this field. And my 4th and 5th picks, who appeared to be prospects but have lost their way. They can bite you, but we have to make choices. Interesting race to play because most of that is in play here.

3 Tisdall Hanover finally draws better and is the one I will go to. She has gradually taken her time down and shows small signs of talent to be right up with this bunch. I expect Trevor to blast her and try and work out a 2 hole trip. Her mother was a fantastic mare and she has produced many solid racehorses, most of who were only ordinary when they started out. For the right price, I will take my chances on this one. She is 12-1 ML. I`d want in that range, give or take. I think I can get it.

5 Two Sides of Love  was a first time starter last time, and made a nice post parade appearance. She did everything right. Went to the gate fine, followed it out like a pro, tucked willingly and followed cover, which was poor but advancing to a point, then tipped off that one to finish 2nd best to a wrapped up winner who had showed decent talent and fast miles already. If not for that one, she wouldn`t be a maiden as of tonight. She is hard to go against, and will likely be 6-5 or even 4-5 if they jump on her. I can see where she can go down, but she looks tough. I call her 2nd in the upset, but she will take some beating.

7 Fade Away comes in off two breaks at Flamboro, and a qualifier where she had mostly B track mediocre ones behind her. Because she is one of Nixon`s I have to take notice and give her some respect. I like others and will take a watch and see attitude tonight. She isn`t impossible on the move to the bigger track and the experience she has gained. Shot. Long shot.

1 Sunset Filly keeps the same ownership group but goes back to her original trainer, as she is not performing. She is prone to make breaks, and did so last time all on her own just after the gate pulled away. She gets back in with maidens here, but she is very chancy anyway. The field behind her in her maiden win is littered with ofer horses or young ones who had no racing at all. These arent much better, but there are some prospects. I will play to beat her, but list her 4th with a shot if she behaves.

4 Warrawee Star is the first foal of her dam, who won 725k and took a record of 1:50 in her life, winning 30 times. She is by Somebeachsomewhere while her dam is by Astreos. To me, she appears to be more Astreos than like her father, and I mean that she has one speed and doesn`t try incredibly hard. In her qualifier, she floated out, went evenly but did little. Her dam wasn`t much at 2 either, so maybe this one will come on late. Carl Jamieson moved her, as he was aiming for her to be a top 2yo, and while she paced in 54 in early summer, that was just tagging along. She only has 4k made, has moved to Johnson after a blow up race at Flamboro when she should have jogged. I like others better, but will watch to see how she stacks up for later in the winter. JJ stays on, so that is a plus. He knows her.

2 Dorabella no thanks. She has been discussed before.

6 Columnist aims to run her winless streak to 30. Don`t let me get in her way. She couldn`t even pass hangers last time. Pass.

8 Ponder the Dream shows nothing to suggest she ever wins at this track in her life.

9 Seven Angels cant see any scenario that gets this one on the ticket.


5 Sutton Seelster if my memory is correct, this one was kept eligible to the NA Cup. I never got that, but it says a bit about the ability they thought he had. Now the fall comes and reality has set in. Reminds me a bit of Surprise Hanover, who is another who was aimed at the NA Cup, raced in the elim at 200-1 and was dull for a long time until he got it together near the end of his 3yo year and found a level. For Sutton Seelster, that level appeared to be this type of claimer, only at London, where he daylighted a similar bunch to this. For that, he got a trip to try the Autumn for new trainer Bourgeois, and a thrashing by those types, who he cant go with. He is back where he belongs, on the right portion of the gate, and can leave and sit. Which all adds up to a big shot for him tonight. Top call from me. I`d need 6-1. I think that is reasonable. I don`t expect 10-1, which is the ML but I think is high.

8 Imsporty is one that Zeron has learned not to send because he will spit the bit if you use him hard early. So, he takes him way back and tries to come late. Last time that backfired because he was in behind two different incidents where there was crashing and banging going on. To his credit he navigated to get 3rd. He has a shot if the logical ones bomb out, which those types are prone to do in this class. He has consistent form if you race him right.

6 The Avenger  got away last last time, was in the flow, which went forward, but he didn`t. He will pop one of these days, as he did 5 down the page. I can list him 3rd with the minorest of shots based on that idea. Robinson always has to be respected as a guy who can find something on a rat like this. So far, he races like he has inherited his grandsire`s lack of desire to try.

10 Mr Mach Jimmy paced a big mile first up in his first start for Moreau. As expected. He was bearing in badly going to the gate, but Fillion worked with it and got him around. He draws the 10 hole here and he has shown in the past he isn`t so interested if he starts badly. We saw with Donna Party that Moreau and Fillion or not, that is death to this type of mediocre proposition. Pass.

2 New Standard is one I went to last week for the price. He had live 3rd over cover but couldn`t go with those top two. He has one lifetime win and no matter what style is tried, he doesn`t get it done. I`ve had enough of him. He has shown me he is just a rat.

3 P H Blackjack drops out of conditions and looks for a spot to compete. He is viable if the softer competition is to his liking. I`m on the fence with him. He shows signs that maybe he is just a B track type. Your call. I cant read him with him being all over the map with how he has been raced.

1 Windsun Falls  left out well last time and stayed in the entire way. He was awful again in the last turn and coming out of it. I cant back him as is. If he were to ever straighten up, he has some go. Others look a lot better than him here.

9 Just a Thought followed very live cover last time and paced right with him to the wire. He wasn`t so interested when he drew bad two back, and I will go against him here with that likely poor start, and more difficult trip. He has good form and might be viable next week if he holds that. He isn`t the most interested racehorse in doing his job, but Joe Hudon reminds him that is what his lot in life is and he is learning that he cant avoid it.

4 Lyons Delight doesn`t show me anything to suggest he is on the super. He did nothing again last time and couldn`t even get up for a cheque.

7 Mister Pibb is a martime bred who has come west looking for some purse money and to find a level. That level appears to be something at Flamboro or London that isn`t this bunch. He has been well whipped so far.

Very tough race to play. The type of race where you take a minimum of 5 in the pick 4 and hope you get the longest shot of that bunch. Sometimes you do, sometimes you dont. It should even out if you get the other races right over time, and the goal is to get to race 7. I would think my top 4 does that here. but I could see using the 10 horse here if you fear that one.

1 Covert Operative  missed a month prior to his last. Per put him mid pack, followed along loosely, and moved when he needed to be 3rd, placed 2nd, no threat to the daylight wrapped up winner, but going forward. He comes right back in one week, gets the rail, and picks up Randy if he shows up. If he doesn`t, CC doesn`t have a drive, so he will get a driver who knows how to handle him and has the ability to make a difference. Top call, but the rail start concerns me with one like him.

5 Second Sister has stepped up big time with lasix. No doubt about that. If she can get Rockin With Dewey`s pocket and ride that to the tote board, she isn`t impossible to pop late and get it done. Another of many who have a shot based on trip and current sharpness on any given night.

6 Rockin With Dewey wired weaker last time, but certainly is good enough with these if she is herself. I will call her to get picked up tonight. But she is very viable underneath for the ticket positions.

3 Lexus Rocky comes off two 10 holes, and closed well enough last time to suggest his form is good. He won with similar 3 back, and if he parades well, he is viable as one of many. That is a big if. His soundness is very variable week to week. He must be observed closely.

10 Burnin Money drops for tonight, but post 10 is enough for me to leave him off. He finds ways to lose anyway, and this gives him the excuse he will need for next time when he draws better and gets bet off that angle. I will watch this time, to see if I want to go against him next time.

7 Totally Ripped was a solid 2nd last time to a front end winner when the heavy chalk bombed out. However, he is 1 for 25 and moving up. Pass for tonight. I could see him making 3rd or 4th if things swing his way. I will wait on the win for another spot.

8 Bags for All has been off a month and was flat at this level in most of her recent tries. She seems like the drop and pop type at this stage, and she needs to go lower for the drop to become pop. Post 8 also. Pass and watch. She is good when she is good and not so good when she is bad, and she shows you that in how she hits the ground.

9 Hubby Number One draws another bad post, which really hurts one like this who likes to be near the top. He went for that anyway last time and it cost him late. Pass for tonight.

4 Fork made a break before being put on the shelf. Yet another layoff. He obviously has soundness issues and always has. He won at the bottom condition below this. If he lasts long enough, I will make a call on him then. Pass in this spot.

2 Odds on Amethyst  has horrendous form and was pacing last time before he ran. I cant go near him until I see some improvement in how he travels. Watching. He has the talent to turn it around at some point.

When we talk about progression vs regression, this race provides some murky waters to decipher that. Hooter Shooter qualified, went forward his first start, so he seemed to be progressing. He showed wear and tear signs last time, but still paced to the wire. Is he progressing? Is he regressing? Is it just growing pains? D M Reacher appeared to be progressing, and now has looked to be regressing. About A Boy progressed off his qualifier, now will he take the next step or feel the burn of racing back to back weeks, something he has never done? To me, it all boils down to price and value in these scenarios. We cant really know which way they will go, as I`m sure even their connections dont know for sure. I never take a short price on any horse that looks to regress without showing me it was just a one time thing. As such, I will take a couple of stabs here in my top 2.

8 Wildcat Jet is named aptly, as he is the wildcard in this bunch. He is almost 5, a maiden, has not raced in almost a year, but shows a nice qualifier for his new trainer, who is also his owner, a guy who knows how to train them. He wont keep anything around that doesn`t look like it will make money. He has never made a penny. Nonetheless, I have to use him and respect how he qualified.

4 Casimir Patriot drew the 10 hole and sat way out of it in his 3rd try at this track. His 2nd last was reasonable enough, and I also find that Daylon Frontier`s improve with every start and get better with age. He fits that profile, although his form is hidden if you want to rely on it.  He was first up two back and going nowhere, but he is learning. Its strictly a price play stab with him, but we have seen J Mac get this type across a lot the last couple of years. I`d use him in the pick 4 and take the spot most would use for D M Reacher.

3 Hooter Shooter comes back for his 3rd try, and of course, he is likely to be the chalk again. He does most of it right, but last time was steppy at times and couldn`t pass a hanger like Rockin Ronnie although he was right up beside him. At the start it seemed that he wanted to leave and Jackie Mo wanted him to rate. When he finally ducked in the turn, it seemed he wanted to run over the one in front of him who was a gapper in the making. He went around that one and moved into contention, but then was iffy coming out of the last turn, and while urged, there was a good hold of the reins to keep him steady. Hard to know what the issue is or if he is just green. As his half brother has showed troubling signs like that over his entire career, I am leaning towards thinking he is going to be viable but iffy gaited as long as he races.  He has to be included in your pick 4, but he is hard to stomach at odds on for the straight win ticket. He shows troubling variables, but he isn`t meeting the second coming of Cam Fella in this group.

6 About a Boy got away slowly last time, and then finished with a decent back half. I think he might need one or two more before we see winning form. Being a Dali, I also could see him hanging if asked to pace early and fend off late. The jury is out. I want to see one more before I get a read on him.

5 Hes Gone Bad  gets a pass last time for post 10, but he doesnt get a pass for not passing the horrid ones in the pack he should have for 5th money. No thanks. He has to show something to me first. He is winless for a reason, and that reason isn`t bad posts.

2 D M Reacher cannot be played off his last line, almost a month now. He has not impressed me on the track either. I will go elsewhere and if he beats me, so be it.

1 Spaniard went around and nailed 5th money in what was a very poor field. These arent much better, but a few have hopes of being something. He is 0 for 26. No thanks.

7 Sedona Seelster was never in contention last time, start to finish, in a very gapped out field. I still dont see anything that makes me think he is worrisome to make me pay for tossing him.

9 Mckinley couldn`t get his act together for Libby, and now goes for Glide from the 9 hole off a layoff and horrid lines. He will have to be seen. I already dont like what I see on the page. Qualfiers arent races and Flamboro is well known as the place you go if you want to do stuff close to post time of a qualfier. Note who beat him in that qualifier and how that one looked last time we saw him. Pass.


4 Our Mojo got it right last week, and popped the pocket late in the qualifier, easily sailing by the leader in a fast time. He gets to start out lower, but because he has had 3 qualifiers off the layoff, I can assume a bit more sharpness and ability to pop off the shelf than we usually expect. He gets a new trainer for the return, and she turned one of Keeling`s last week, who almost won at 14-1.  As Gangle notes in the program, he does a lot better at Woodbine than Mohawk, and in the winter as well. Top call.

2 Escuela had the rail last time and that didn`t help her cause. She got away mid pack, and thus pulled first up, forced to trot a huge 3rd quarter to get into contention, and then finished well, picked off for 2nd by a known closer. You cant fault her. She is very trip dependent though, and Henseley is still not proven at this track. I list her 2nd, but she is another. A lot will have to go her way to get home first.

10 Grana Padanno goes lower here, but draws the 10 hole. Obviously, that will compromise him, but I`m willing to list him top 3 with a shot based on what he is capable of and the soft nature of the middle of this field.

7 Crown Classic floated out last time, but was sitting mid pack when the pace slowed and she got doubled up briefly then put in steps, almost a full run. CC caught her and kept her at it, and she came back on for 2nd money, but the classy winner had her own way and she was long gone. These look a shade deeper here. I could see her, but I like others better.

3 Hldontghttoyurdrms had no excuse last time and was struggling in the lane, barely getting up for 3rd. I cant back him from what I see right now and the short price that will come again tonight. He can beat me if he steps up. He rarely does.

1 Kennel Buddy draws better and drops. That is the good news. He was 65-1 and well out of it last time. That is the bad news. I like others, but he does win a lot of races. Minor shot. Very minor. A lot would have to right that he doesn`t control.

5 Maximuscle is hard to like off the page, his penchant to make breaks, and his overall record of finding a different way to lose each time. He got away with his issues in Quebec. Here, he pays for the mistakes.

6 Musical Spell is not doing enough for my liking, and there are too many others in here with a reasonable shot to think he can slide home under the radar by attrition. Pass.

8 Eldorado of Gold S comes in off the layoff and a so so qualifier, where he wasnt dangerous to Our Mojo. Pass for me. He has a history of hanging, even when he is in good form.

9 Severus Hanover drops but draws the 9 hole and he was gapping badly in the lane and turn last time. I have to see more. He will get it together once this winter. He seems to do that. Not this spot for me. I watch him though. He is a longshot type when the variables come together to hit the sweet spot.

Need my top 4 for the pick 4 or late double. Could be any of them, although I do prefer the top 2.

7 Shadow Margeaux was clearly better last time, and showed why he was being bet heavily all the times before. 54.3 back half probably takes this bunch if he can duplicate that. I will call him to do it. He is risky and could easily blow up on me. That is the risk you assume playing these types in these races. Woggy Rocks, the one who beat him last week, showed how easy it is to turn it around fast. He is 6-1 ML, but Gangle takes him on top, which leads me to think others will play off his improved form. I would take 9-2,  maybe 4-1. No less.

1 Cs Eye seemed to need one last time, and was not gunned kamikaze style like he normally is. It was almost like a 2nd qualifier to tighten him up, which it did. He knocked another 3 seconds off in 4 days. He is back at that level. He has a shot to go forward, and the rail is actually a help to this kind, who has a very quick first step off the wings and gets rail control without working hard for it.

4 St Lads Lotto gets a better post here, and has dangerous form as Jackie Mo drives instead of Ryan. He has been hot of late, almost a resurgence of sorts. He is one of many who can step up here.

2 Im the Pied Piper drops in class and gets lasix. He is 3 weeks out of the box, but that wouldn`t concern me with Cullen, who is likely to have trained or schooled him in 55 a week out. He has a shot on the variables at play for him tonight. He beat far better the last two years when Burke had him.

10 Hes a Sensation post does his type in. Massive class drop gets him overbet. Its not a true drop when you are a 50-1 shot and race like a 99-1. Pass.

3 Mister X raced well last week, but was short of the top ones when the real pacing was done near the wire. He just doesn`t finish like an A track horse, even against the worst this track offers. Pass.

8 Brookdale Sonny was once a promising colt. He was even staked up to the NA Cup and hadnt even raced until the spring. That was then. He has bombed out and now hits the bottom class with terrible form. When you need to go to Truro to get brave and win races, you lose my respect. He will have to earn it back.

5 Veroi Bayama is a big time hanger who is probably better suited for a straight 8 claimer. The names of those who beat him last time do not impress me. When you are behind those, you don`t get respect from me. Pass until I see the appropriate class drop.

6 Big Petes Style continues to show me nothing. Maybe he will turn it around. Have not seen any signs of that yet. Pass.

9 Cams Tux cant use him as is. Pass


3 Crankin It Up is yet another Skydancer Hanover to find Weller, and from the Wilfongs. He is making a pretty good buck turning Hoosier rats on that exact angle. This one a full brother to CS Eye, only one year older. He won his first of the year last week, and now comes to Weller with Hoosier closing up shop for the winter. One thing about trainers is this: When they have had foals from certain sires and families, say a common mare, they know things about them that make it easier to try and hone more performance out of them. This appears to be one of those. I will call him on top because of that, and I doubt I`m alone playing him. He probably goes off the fave, albeit a lukewarm 5-2, 3-1 type. I will take it.

2 Scotty Mach N drew bad but closed up well last time. I can make a case for him. He is possible. He will need the right flow trip.

5 Curator goes 2nd off the claim after a conditioned test drive from the 7 hole at Flamboro last time. Maguire has a good record as a driver, even though it was at a track where most are not professionals. The horse needs to leave better to get there first. I don`t see him swooping this field and beating the top 2 contenders. Shot if he can get in a live flow, and not 4th over. 

7 Jac Spade had the trip last time but couldn`t reach the classy winner, who is on his last legs but they are faster legs than what he was facing. This guy just doesn`t win much. I have to pick against him when I can see others who are viable. I`d roll the dice and leave him off the pick 4.

1 Be Calm Hanover is 3 races off the claim for his new boss, and he has had excuses. He drew bad at Rideau twice, and ran in the first effort for the trainer. Another new trainer here, and one who has a long history of turning horses like this around. I will watch, but he could beat me tonight. If I like what I see, I might go to him next week. Not exactly a class brimming with repeat winners week to week. Staying ahead of the curve is the key to cashing in on value. Lets see if he fits the profile of one who could be that next week.

4 Mammoth Jack paced a solid mile last time, to his credit, but came home with no money. I like others better until he proves to me he can make the ticket at this track. The last eighth does him in here. It does many.

6 Tea With Ms Mcgill is not one I can back on current form. Dowling is a sharp guy and usually makes good claims that work out well for him and his owners. I think he eats this one and we all do if we claim enough of them. He was good for a few weeks, but horrid for a couple of years. He seems to be regressing again.

9 Royal Canvas didnt like what I saw from him last week. He regressed and that is enough for me. He got a one race bump from the new trainer. It didn`t last.

10 Bieber Hanover he can beat me. I wont be backing this one at this track. He should be moved out shortly.

8 Conflict Diamond was an early scratch.

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