Saturday, November 19, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 14, 2016

Race 1

NIGHT WITCH  was a monster last time, sitting in to the half, pulling and blasting by in a 27.4 3rd quarter move and then coasting home all by herself. If she is viable off the post parade, she towers over this bunch. Boyd knows how to train a horse. I don't see the trainer change as an issue. If she brings 3-1 or so, my Best Bet of the night.

ARE YOU IN goes to Julie Walker, who has been known to turn some mediocre young trotters into slightly better stock. This one has been facing a few who would be 1-5 or lower in with this bunch, namely Georgies Pockets, Dancer Hall, Manofmanyimages and Safekeeping. None of those types in this race. He can leave, will keep trotting and will appreciate not having to go a huge 3rd quarter like last time to just keep up. If all of that plays out, he has a legit shot to make the ticket, and even win if others blow up. He does have to improve his last quarter. Maybe the trainer change makes that happen.

 PAMPERED IN PINK benefited from a soft trip and a leader who ran last time, and she was in the right place to win it. She was going all she can go to the wire, and needed a pretty favorable front end trip the time before to win that too. She did win both, and you cant take that away from here. Post 10 and Per this time, I will go to others. I think she goes down and is iffy to even stick for the ticket.

PREMIER GLITTER is a talented but troubled mare, with 12 lifetime starts approaching the end of her 4yo season. She doesn't make a good post parade appearance based on what I've seen before, draws the 9 hole and comes in off another layoff. She is just illogical enough to win this. If you have room, toss her on your pick 5, but she is hard to like against my top choice here.

POLLAR HALL loses the good post advantage that saw him leave out and secure soft following trips. He doesn't have that final eighth of a mile that winners do at WEG, and that does him in when it matters. He does leave well enough that if a few run inside him, he can get out close again. That gives him a shot with these, but I like others better. He seems at least 1 second short of my top pick.

OCEANVIEW PANCHO  beat up all year on Maritime bred trotters who cant get out of their own way. If you watch those races, more than half the field is trying to just stay on gait to pick up as much of the pie as they can, and many cant even do that. The water is much deeper here, and while there should be some major time improvement from Charlottetown to Woodbine, I'm not sold this horse can compete with the top 2 or 3 in this race. Not yet anyway. I want to see it first. Pass.

 EMPIRESTATEOFMIND was all out last time to get up on the last step, bearing out very bad at Vernon. Before that, she cut the mile and was fading from the turn home under heavy urging. She is a 2yo at the end of a long season. Pass for now. I am not certain she is WEG stock, even with many in here who will end up with that label as well. 

J N RYDER is a confirmed maiden who is around 50 starts plus. He goes around and picks up pieces, because he can leave well and keeps trotting. More of the same from him tonight. Possible for the super, but not on my ticket otherwise.

GRAMSTER is 4 starts and almost 3 months into his stay at Ben B's barn, and I've seen nothing to suggest he can do anything with him. Pass.

ZORGWIJK PARKHILL is up against it now that KD has closed and he probably cant get around Flamboro well enough to compete, which is closer to his speed ability. 99-1 shot who is impossible to play.

Race 2

AWESOMENESS was handled carefully by Mario last time as the horse can be a bit of a bully if you let him get too tight to the one in front of him. He came up the rail, but that wasn't the preferred part of the track and another with a better trip and driver edged him out. Mayotte is back aboard and he should handle this bunch, coast to coast, which he did 2 back.

MACH MESSIER cut the mile but gave it up late, on a night when the front was horrific and most packed it in completely trying that tactic. He gets J Mac instead of Cullen, and obviously that is an upgrade. If he can get to the 2 hole and follow my choice, he isn't impossible. He needs a lot for him to go right to win it, but he is certainly viable for the ticket if he doesn't try to cut it. J Mac seems like a trip out specialist. so, there is that.

EAST END traveled smoother last week and was in play deep in the lane, edging the top choice. He is one of many, but viable. He also doesn't strike me as the type that doubles up. Everything went his way last time, and that rarely repeats for any horse.

SHARKY SHARK benefited from a maiden race with two heavy faves who blew up completely, a front end horse who stopped to a walk, and a gapped out field that left him an easy path to blow by late. He did that, and is a prospect going forward, but tonight, he is up against it against a few who are far ahead of him on the speed and experience ladder. Pass, but watching.

CENTURY CHURCHILL took forever to get the first lifetime win, and he did so against a bunch who are unlikely to win any races at WEG. He reverted back to follow and pick up pieces in this class, and I will tab him for that again, and again, and again, until he shows me some grit.

P H BLACKJACK ships back in, for Brealey, who kept ownership, but is now more than 3 weeks out. He took a big score at Truro, but struggled here before. He seems more likely to be a Flamboro or London horse, before he settles in to a 10 or 15 claimer at some point. Pass, but mindful that Brealey can turn a horse like this.

JRS BIG BUDDY does not appear competitive at this track and is up against it now that KD has closed. Post 8 makes it easier to toss him, which I will do.

Race 3
If you are playing the pick 5, I'd take my top 6 and just move on. Its a crapshoot race. I eliminated the bottom 4. Any of the rest can luck out and win this.

CORE FUSION gets a better post and is 2nd time lasix, which is a decent double angle. He was solid 2 back when out closer to the pace. That is likely again. Saftic drives him steady, so if he shows up tonight, that is a plus. If he doesn't, that is a big negative. He did gap the gate by several lengths last time and he has issues with the gate generally. He will have to be on it or close to it to make the most of this post. He also was 3 wide a long time last time, and that is another thing that leads him to hang late, which he has shown he will also do. He is in the mix, but I wouldn't go near a short price on him.

SIBSON comes back faster this time, and is another who cut the mile on a night when that was not favorable to getting a good result. He stayed at it better than most did trying that. I give him credit for that.  Trevor sticks with him, and he is red hot. Another plus for a horse that likes to leave, which is what Trevor does well at Woodbine. Now, the negatives. He is highly inbred to a sire that should never be inbred, and that shows up in him being able to maintain soundness week to week. Coming back quicker could even be considered a negative here, as is post 1 for a trotter at Woodbine.

STORMONT DUNDAS can leave and follow, but not finish, which is not surprising considering his Tom Ridge dam. He can be part of the ticket, even win if a lot goes his way. I will pass on him for the win. He is the type that something is always just a bit better than him on any given night, even ones he finished ahead the previous week or weeks.

ANDOVERS CHOICE is a 23 time maiden who has had a lot of good chances to not be a maiden, 6 weeks from his 4yo debut. As such, he is driven with that in mind. Last time, he split horses late after getting the soft trip he needs, and was only outtripped by another who did the same but had a big jump on him. He is knocking on the door with these types, but its a guess to say if he will get anyone to come to the door and let him in. He needs others who are viable to fail. That is hard to rely on, but, yet, with this field, not a fantasy to see playing out.

HILARIOUS HERO is 0 for 20 lifetime and for good reason. He was parked out last time, as most will not let a horse like that go thinking they know how to stop and lose, and nobody wants to be behind them when they do. 2 back, he couldn't outstagger Grace Duhuras, who was trying to lose but couldn't. 4 back he was put on the engine but caved in completely, losing to Groupie Doll, another who acquired here Professional Maiden card honestly but turned it in that night.  If 2 of 3 inside him somehow run or gap the gate, and he can get out near the front and sit in, which he has shown he can do, he can also graduate. Can, but likely wont.

DAD LEADS tried the Gold colts at 2, and while he never won, banked 47k doing so. He even made the Superfinal, where he picked up 5th money. That campaign obviously gutted him, or hurt him, as he missed the entire season this year after trying to qualify in May but didn't make it and just started up again last week. His breeding suggest lameness, and the trainer/driver, part owner handles him this time. I think he can step up this winter, if he stays sound, but for now, I will watch to see if he progresses and also can be durable.

 VEYRON  post 10 with Durand driving the first time starter with one qualifier under his belt. Not sure what his future is, as Durand is patient and also tricky to figure without seeing the horse go, but his prospects tonight are close to zero.

IGOCRAZY WITHOUT U was on terrible cover last time, but even so, he consistently just doesn't finish. They removed lasix on the switch from Tioga to this circuit, and that hasn't made a difference. He is just a B track horse looking for the right B track to grind out a solid 15 or 20k a year for the rest of his career. He is 0 for 21 in spite of going to the B's looking to find a spot to win a race.

HIGH SOCIETY in a race with horses that dont want to win, have little speed, or finishing ability, she is the worst one of that lot. Add post 8 and a non driving driver, and a failed attempt at Flamboro, and you have a well bred Muscle Hill that just hasn't panned out.

PARKHILL MAVERICK post 9, his suspect form and penchant for making breaks suggest a toss. Consider him tossed.

Race 4

CRAFTY MASTER came off the shelf for Puddy last time and was solid, but short of the field at the finish. He blasted out of there, and that is a good sign, as he needs to be forwardly placed to account for the length or two he loses on the last turn, his longtime habit. I can see him being right there tonight with the good post and an aggressive Phil steer again.

JIMMY BE GOOD had great form for Puddy and Moase when in with these types, but was horrid the night he was claimed by Lee, and was just taken to the back and had too far to come last time. This field is ripe to be taken, and he is capable of doing that. I am always suspicious of any horse that passes through Puddy and Moase and comes out the other end, but that doesn't mean he can't be good tonight. He is a factor.  Trevor could have gone to Fellows one, but he took this one instead. That is a plus.

LONEWOLF CURRIER does not impress me, was bearing out bad at the end last time, and loses the Allard juice and painkiller. Pass and go against in with this bunch. He is virtually certain to be claimed again tonight, and thus raced hard and with abandon. Montini didn't jack him up to protect him, knowing that. I think he is a false favorite and bad play tonight.

A BOY NAMED SUUZZ does his best when he is out and winging it. He has the dreaded 10 hole tonight, and there are several that will leave and not give him a hole. Thus, he is damned if he leaves, and relegated to a long wide trip if he takes back. He is dropping into a claimer, against much softer than he has faced lately. Minor shot if somehow he can go against the bias against him tonight and get away near the front without being gutted.

WALTZKING HANOVER goes in for a lower tag than he was claimed for, as drawing the outside with this bunch is a death sentence to him for a chance to make money, which he has not as of yet with Cullen. I like others better, but I can see where using that fast 3rd quarter move will be more effective if he stays in and isnt spotting them 15 plus lengths. Pass for me, but he is dangerous enough to include if you want to do that.

PAR INTENDED is in for another very long trip tonight. He isnt the soundest horse either, and you cant count on him to be viable night to night. I cant use him from this post. Pass.

P L HEAVENLY is not very sound, and thus handled carefully leaving to keep him in play. He is also a very infrequent winner and often acquires long wide trips which dont help his cause to get his picture taken. Pass for me.

NEEDLECREST drops into a claimer, but these appear tougher than those he faced last time. He also cant leave to save his life, and isnt a bearcat passing horses most nights either. Another who is probably better off in for 15k. Pass and toss for me.

 BAZINGA BRAD is fairly solid for 15k, but in deep with this level of competition. Pass and toss for me. He needs to go back in lower and risk the claim. Race them where they belong. That is what they tell you. For good reason. Its true.

CHOSEN HOMBRE looked horrific and lame first off the claim. I cant go anywhere near him until I see that corrected.  These arent soft. He will have to be turned around to even be viable against many who have proven tougher and more talented than him over the years, and also lately.

Race 5

ER QUINN sat way out of it last time, and closed a ton late, but he was too far back to matter. Phil takes over, even though Ryan is here to drive. That is curious. This horse has yo-yo form as a rule, and you never know if he will blow up the tote board, or just pack it in and back through the field. If the price is right, he is worth a shot.

 RAGING FINGERS  was a winning, cash machine for years in Alberta, many times daylighting his competition because he was so much the best and few wanted to try him.
He shipped east with Cullen, and he tagged him too low, drawing Sheppard, who loves to claim, jam, win, and then lose them. Cullen took him right back, jacked him up one level, and jogged. He moves him up again, but he certainly appears as good as any of these. His one flaw for this circuit is his lack of great gate speed, which, knowing Cullen, means he is in for another of his first over missions. I'm not 100 percent sold he can last and win off that tonight, but he is possible.

RAIN GAUGE pretty much wired them last time at Flamboro for Cullen, who lost him. He is an interesting horse. He hardly raced his entire life, then came to life at the Manitoba fairs, and was unbeatable for weeks last year when he came to Cullen, who jammed him every week, and nobody would claim him. Many weeks he just sent him down the road, as far ahead as he could get, and most of those could not catch him in doing so. He goes first time Kyle here, and his form suggests he is right there if he gets the trip. Is he an 8 or 12 at this track? Tonight we will get an indication of that. I'm on the fence. As 10-12s go, these are very soft.

CUNDALINI  takes the lower tag, a wise move, to avoid the outside post which did him in the last two times he got it. He can leave a ton, and that helps his cause with these. Another option, among many in here. Trip race. He needs a breather if he is to get home first. I don't see that happening with Cullen pulling early and gunning at him. 

STIMULUS SPENDING takes the class drop and needs to. He is a horribly gaited horse at times, but on the right night, when he can overcome that and make it out of the first turn clean, he has some go. JJ gets the most out of him and has several wins with him.  His last race time stacks up well against these if he can reproduce it. That isn't always a great variable to play with these types, who are very variable and inconsistent as a rule. I like others better for the win, but he is dangerous.

 LITTLE TURK  was taken for 8500 off Copley and then kept at London. He comes back now for 10k, which might be a bit above where he can compete. He faded for 8k at this track the last time we saw him, and he has generally disappointed more times than come through over the years.

WHO DOESNT yet another taken off Cullen, another who took the outside post on the handicap last time, and he was a non factor. I think he is iffy for 8k, so to stay at this level, even with a better post, I will wait until he drops back and see how he stacks up there. Pass.

INTENDED STYLE has looked like a used up pacer for some time now, and one that made a lot of people money and won many races the last couple of years. There is a price to pay for that. He is paying that price now. Pass. Hope he stays on his feet and doesn't knock anybody down.

LIGHT FOOT RD takes the high tag and bad post for low percentage trainer Fuller. His last was bad and his form is spotty anyway. Toss.

GIVE EM HECK gets the 10 hole. There are too many ones in here to suggest he would beat them all from this post. Another night maybe, and it wouldn't hurt if he drew inside and was in for 10k. He scored for Moreau, but otherwise he has been poor for others. That is indicative of what it takes to make him go.

Race 6

CROWN CLASSIC hung late last time, as is her habit. She is good enough on her best night to win this, and CC gets the most out of her. Her two latest tries at this level came from rail starts, which is not preferable. I will give her a pass and think she leaves and sits in. She needs some racing luck, but at a price, she is possible to take shot with.

ROCKIN WITH DEWEY  is trying to find a spot to be competitive and regain her confidence. This is that spot, but the post will hurt her when she gets used early and has to fend off the pack late. Beatable, but obviously, if things went her way, she could barely hold on at the wire. At times this year, she has tackled the best. That takes a toll on a trotting mare. She goes Blinkers to Open hoping that helps her.

HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS when he is good, he can be competitive, even win the Preferred. When he is not good, he can get beat by anything. Being off 4 months, obviously he wasnt good when shut down. Fillion takes over here on the class drop, one after the tightener try. He had almost no trot on the end of the mile last time, even though he never left the rail. I will go against him for the win tonight, at a very likely short price. His time will come again this winter. Not tonight for me. He can prove me wrong.

ENTRANCED  is 2 for 43 the last two years. If he can overcome the 1 hole and get away top 2, he could trip out. That is how a horse like this wins a race or two a year. I cant count on that. Bit player.

JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL makes start 38 tonight, and made 40 last year. She certainly knows her job and shows up every week. But even the most durable get tired. She did not have favorable posts her last two races, and the results reflected that. She likes to leave and get up close, and then sit. She is generally a smaller cheque type, and I will call her for that again.

SCARY GOOD I dont think has won a race at this track for 3 years and most nights doesn't even go forward off perfect trips. Pass and toss. Its probably time to consider a bottom claimer for him.

WIN THE DAY off his current form, I will pass and toss him. I see nothing that says he is going in the right direction. He is talented. I will wait for some sign.
STEPPIN OUT and MAD FOR PLAID  have zero shot and cannot win this race under any scenario.

Race 7
EDWARD TEACH looked very good parading last time, was sent out of there, parked the mile, well past the half, and yet, made the lead and went a long way before he finally gave it up. He is back at this level, better post and has raced with far better in the last year or so and held his own. He is possible. He goes Blinkers to Blind.

FRANKIE BOY made a break leaving in his first start for Zeron, and he has had that issue before. And just like before, he still paced a big mile while doing it, going in 54.2 from the half home to nab 3rd. He qualified back,  I'm sure with some Zeron fine tuning, and has a big shot tonight if he can get away clean and not spot them too many lengths.

SENIOR MARKET finished better last time than he has for a while, which was 2nd time lasix. Post 7 is a good one for a leaver like him, and was a very good post on Saturday. I can see him leaving hard and being in the mix. He needs the right type of luck to take it all the way. Sitting on Trevors back and getting out at the last second, but not too late, is that trip.

BATTLE CALL returns off a long layoff, goes for Gilmour, but exits a very competent one in Harmon. He removes lasix. His qualifier was bad, and he has a bad post. I cant see him being a player in this race. He has a lot of troubling variables, not ones that can persuade me to play him.  He goes free legged, and that is a curious move for an aged horse who didn't before. Seems like a kitchen sink approach here.

CS EYE goes 4 days after qualifying, Thursday to Monday turnaround. He walked home again in that test, and while he is likely to be Kamikaze driven again, I think he gets picked up trying that, even though that style has worked well in the first 3 days of the meet.

MACH IT BIG  will take some tote play off his last solid finish. I will go against him. He seems at this age to find ways to lose.

BIG PETES STYLE was very good for a while late winter, early spring, but has reverted back to how he was last winter at this track. Pass. Have to see much more.

ST LADS LOTTO draws another bad post, and that continues to hurt him, when he is very trip dependent even from a good one. Pass for tonight. He has good nights and bad nights. I will continue to watch him hoping he hits the sweet spot of good post and good night at fair price.

MACH ON THE BEACH does very little to suggest he is dangerous, and loses CC to the 9 horse, in spite of him driving much of this trainers stock. Pass.

ROAN BRUISER is probably 200-1 if he shows up tonight. Nuff said.

Race 8

LISVINNIE tried to wire them last week on a night that was not a good idea, and he stopped bad. I will give him a pass on that. He needs to rate though. He isn't in the form he was in the summer that he can just outspeed them, even at this lower level. He is possible.

NEW YORK NIGHTMARE was very live last time and got up for a solid 2nd. He is a player with these, but needs to lay closer.

DRAKE comes back on 4 days, and he is tactical enough to get it done if others let him get the sweet trip he likes and needs. He does finish 2nd and 3rd a lot more than he wins. So, there is that.

COBALT MAN takes a class drop, which puts him in play with these. However, he has blown that angle on me before. I will go elsewhere. He is likely to take heavy money and I dont think he warrants that.

JENKINS CREEK  didnt look very sound last time, and showed it at the end. Same as the race before. He is a claimer. They are week to week. New barn, but I want to see how he parades. He should have won last time but didn't. He is not the type that can be 80% and win races.

HIGHLAND TARTAN goes 2nd off the claim. I rarely play anything that comes from Marty Fine and goes to another. I wont start here. Pass.

OUTLAW GUNPOWDER appears to be a solid 10, but in deep for 15. Bit player in my mind with these.

MACHAPELO has a lot of wear and tear on his 7yo legs for the 625k he has earned. He has hit the vet list twice on the page, in a row, and raced back okay last time. I will pass on him. Maybe for 8 he could be viable if he holds together.

Race 9

GIRL DRAMA  is probably the only one in here that can mow down the heavy chalk. I will give her the nod to do that.

WARAWEE PROTON  is hard to go against in this spot. Not because he has impressed me with how he appears on the track. But because there is just not much competition here. I will, however, pick him 2nd and go to my top choice for the price, who needs the right pace scenario, but can get there if she gets it.

UNCLE FREDDIE ships in and draws post 10. I cant go to him when he is up against it like that. He would need both my top choices to blow up. That isn't impossible, but not probable.
The rest appear to be a combo of bit players and non factors.

Race 10

FIRE WATCH lowers her tag to 8k and draws better as a result. In watching her for a couple of years in Alberta, she sometimes shows up, other times is not interested. I suspect Cullen will make her interested. Soft bunch. That gives her a shot.

 DONNA PARTY tried better at Flamboro and did well when she drew well. Back on this circuit, she is a claimer and is tagged accordingly. She is legit, but she is also no bearcat and beatable.

DARKTWISTEDFANTASY has been flat for a while, but we all know Carmen turns these types here and there. Another who can upset the apple cart.

 SHES A MANIAC has responded to Gilmour and she comes back to WEG, where she has won before when on top of her game. She is possible.

 LADY JEN I did not like what I saw from her last time, at the start or the finish. She was claimed, and Im not sold she doesn't blow up here. I will leave her off the ticket and play others with spotty form but a better price.

ALEXAS HOPE  has terrible form and Galucci doesn't seem to be able to do anything about it. I will wait for some sign of turning that around before I play her near the win slot.

GROUND SHAKER was 3rd best last time but wasn't doing anything to suggest she is up with whomever is the top one or two in here. I cant go to her off her weaker B track lines. She doesn't do enough to win races at WEG.

THREE PINK BOWS goes 2nd off the claim and her first was indicative that she is better off at the B's, where she has spent most of her career. Without Waxman's high octane gas in her, I will pass.

TOTAL KNOCKOUT draws bad and that takes her out of play. She needs every break to get there first. Starting way back is the nail in that coffin.

CHOOSE MY JET post 10 with that form. No thanks.

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