Saturday, November 19, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 19, 2016


Miss Babe Delight goes to Moreau, draws better and gets Trevor. It worked Thursday night, Friday night, and I don't see why it doesn't work here. Good enough for me. 

Katies Beach gets to drop back in class and picks up McNair, who is red hot and driving as good as he ever has in the last week. She is right there behind my top choice.  

Stylish Beachwhere comes right back to the class and foes she took down last week. She has a lot of talent, but soundness issues to match. Post parade will be key. I could make a case that she needs to be on your pick 5 ticket, but I'd have to see her parade first.  

Hot Spot Hanover keeps Fillion, and is obviously sharp. But all good runs have to end. I can see that she will go the other way at some point. I will try to be ahead of the curve and call it before it happens. I list her off the ticket.  

Double T Grrr isnt the sharpest knife in the drawer, but she has ability and is learning the game after not racing at all at 2 and hardly at 3. I could see her being viable at some point at this track. Longshot chance tonight, but others look too tough for her at this stage.  

Misty De Vie  finds these a lot tougher than the ones she one stretch moved below. I think she has hit the wall, at least for now. Pass.

Dixie Lullaby is a bit of a slow leaver, and that compounds her problems in this class and this track. I like others in this spot. Her day will come again this winter.

Wasaga Beach comes in off a layoff, a mediocre qualifier, a barn change, a track change, and suspect form. She might develop into something playable at this track. I will just watch this time.

Blueberry Will  does her best work with control. I dont see how she gets that here. Pass.


Gravitator tuned up to stay sharp, looks as good as most of these. She stacks up good enough and will bring a decent price. I will take my shot with her. 

Temple Ruins is in the mix off her lines. One of many who can get it done.

Princess Aurora avoids her stablemate and looks like the one. But she draws the rail at Woodbine. I will play against her and the likely poor start. 

Magic Presto has talent and speed, and a pretty nice record and bank account. She isn't impossible. She was better earlier in the year though. I like others a bit more.

Winter Sweet Frost won the Superfinal and has been very consisten the entire season, but that has been a long season. I like others better for the ticket.

Cameron Hill doesnt look up to this bunch, and starting to the outside makes it easier to discount her. Over her head in my view. 

Southwind Tesla qualified with trotting hopples and tries them in a real race for the first time. She will have to be seen. These are way tougher than she has shown she can handle. 

Myammie Drama is a maiden taking on winners, and thus, I cant see how she can handle the top wrung here. Pass.

Cool Cates looks like a mediocre Sire Stakes filly who is taking on the bearcats for the big dough. And has post 9. Nuff said.

Blinded by Lindy appears to be in the wrong race. They write the maiden races on Mondays and Thursdays. 

Delightful Hill is the one I go to for the upset. She has seemed to be heading towards top form. Its a trip race. She needs one. If she gets it, she is right there with anything in this.

Sandbetweenurtoes is razor sharp and just missed last time. She is hard to go against, but I listed her 2nd and went for the higher anticipated price of that one. 

 Imagine Dragon mowed them down late, and is certainly viable. I like others better, but she would be no shock. She doesn't always show the hot form she forked over last time. 

Rock N Roll Xample  picks up Sears tonight, and while she is racing great, she needed to trip out to win this class. She doesn't do enough for me on her own to take her over my top 2.  

Waasmula isnt doing enough to beat them. I like others better and could see her missing the super.

Ms Mac N Cheese has not been herself for a while now. She would have to show me some form change to get me back on board. I'm sure that will come. Not tonight for me. These arent in any way soft. 

Party in Rome not with this bunch. Pass. 


Pretty contentious race. I've been following my top choice for a few weeks. This looks like the spot.  

Carracci Hanover top call on form and post improvement.

The Rev 2nd back and he is more likely to be dangerous. He has trouble winning. I list him for 2nd. 

Cool Rock likely too late again.

Asap Hanover doesnt do enough to take my top 2. Could get 3rd.

Mr Carrotts a bit tougher than he can usually handle.

 Vegas Rocks not with these.

Velocity Driven tough for him to handle these on current form. 

Race 5

Rockette like what I see from her. She can upset them. Pace went against her last time.

Caviart Ally Sharp at the right time. Short price leads me to play another who seems as good.

Someomensomewhere consistent, but not raced to win last time. Shot if things go her way.

Idyllic Beach long season and she has a lot of hard miles behind her. 

The rest are bit players and dont worry me. 
Race 6

Surprise Hanover drops down but his form is good, the type of form he had a couple of years ago. He draws the right type of post for the style he likes that gets him the trip he likes to go forward off of. If he gets that, he has a longshot chance to pay the type of price I am looking for in this race.

Reel has started to find his legs and might be a good price play tonight. I list him 2nd, but he could easily win this. He needs to maintain his smoothness late in the mile. He has improved in that respect.

Darcee N takes the class drop I have been waiting for. I still think he might have to go one rung lower, but he is in the mix with this bunch. If he trips out, he could get up late.

Prescotts Hope will get play on the class drop and 3rd back off the layoff. I am not sold he is what he was. I will go against him and his likely short price tonight.

 I dont like what I see from any of the others to think they will be the winner. 

Race 7

International Moni love what I saw from him on the track last time. Big strong colt who gets better each week.

 Snowstorm Hanover  was solid last week and can get to the top and get a trip or cut his own mile. He has a shot if things go his way. 

Jake seems to be putting it together late in the season. Just another who can step up if things go his way.

 Andy M comes late with authority if any of my top 3, or all of them, happen to blow up or not show up.


Blayde Hanover was dominant last week and I expect him to handle this bunch with the better post and move off the gate right to the top or a quick retake if need be. 

Always a Hotshot moves to Mayotte, and draws outside. He is likely to come late for 2nd or 3rd.  

Daylight Rush blasted last time, let one go, and came back out late to be 2nd best. He can do that again, but others might outleave him and force him to go wider and a longer trip. Not in this spot for me.  

Flaherty got the parking ticket last time but slid into a hole. He didn't totally give it up. He is another who has raced a long season this year. I dont prefer him tonight, but he is likely to come around again. Watching. He has the chance to make the ticket if things go his way. 

 Maserati Seelster was large last time. These are way tougher. He will have to show me he can handle them.

Dalton Did It  will have to do a lot more than he has ever showed me to make the ticket with this bunch. I will watch.

Electric Western not with these.

Weatherly wired them last time, but this field is deeper and grittier. Pass. 


Downbytheseaside like him to turn the tables on the bearcat in what appears to be a 2 horse race.  

Huntsville  hard to go against, but if his foe gains control, he could outsprint him home. I will play it that way.
Miso Fast  has the ability to follow along and be there if either or both of the top 2 ones fail.

Neils Golden Girl didnt get the trip she liked last time. I will play her to reverse that here, in a race where it was hard to pick one out of the rest. Lukewarm call. 

Sass  shot but the rail start worries me.

Marquis Volo is coming around, but post hurts here. 

A Rod Hall which one of his personalities shows up?

Tony Soprano post 10 could be trouble for him. Back of the bus?

Little Red Chev another day when she draws better. Not tonight for me.

Azucar shipper, has to be seen. Doesn't look good enough for these.


Nirvana Seelster should boss these around based on how he races and the post he has drawn. No Easy Lover Hanover to contend with here. 

Vegas Vacation will have to be seen, considering his issues. I am inclined to think he isnt winning against a few that have decent form.

Mach Code takes on a few tougher ones here, but he has improved. Ticket material, but I like others better for the win. 

Traceur Hanover  wired them last time, but these are tougher and he isnt so bold when he meets level competition. 

American Virgin drops out of the Preferred, but he has not looked good on the track for a while. I will wait for a sign he turns that around. He has the talent. 

Continual Hanover was struggling on the turns last time and these are tough for him as is. Pass.

RACE 12 

Champagne Phil comes back to this track at a level he can excel. He is certainly a contender and has a history of leaving hard when he is spotted right. Top call for the upset.

Ideal Jet 2nd off the layoff, with the big class drop, the good post, and Trevor. Sign me up. 

Lovedancinwithyou blew up the tote board 3 back, but hasnt been as dangerous with a bit better at Flamboro. He comes back here a level up. These are fairly soft. I could see him getting a big chunk. Minor shot to beat them all if he trips out. 

Mach on the Beach comes back on short notice, and draws slightly worse, but is now in the care of Moreau, who had him last year as well. He has a shot with the improved trainer angle. 

Bigtown Hero have not liked what I have seen from this very fast horse who has a lot of issues. Sucker money off a good qualifier, where you can get away with a lot of things you cant when the judges and security are on duty. 

Bali  ships in from Rideau, but hooks a bunch that look a lot tougher than he usually meets, and doesnt beat anyway. Maybe one level down if he shows he can keep up with these.

Counter Strike earned a good buck in Alberta beating up on also rans and taking big dollar stake finals because he was a sub par 3yo. Now that he is east, its tougher and he has to find a level. I would think that level is at leas the one below this, maybe. Not this one.

Spinfiniti Is a shadow of the horse that Adams gassed up for about 6 months. He hasn't won a race this year, and I'd think he needs to go lower, at a bare minimum.

Arrived Late has always struggled at this track. I like others a lot better. Pass.

No comments:

Post a Comment