Saturday, November 19, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 17, 2016

Race 1

I Wish You Well Is the obvious play in with this bunch, and as such, she will bring 3-5 or less. She won in 54.3, then was laid off for some reason, and showed up last week to pace a strong qualifying mile in 55.4 to a filly who made the final of the Three Diamonds. Something would have to go horribly wrong for her to lose this race. If she parades as is, she is the one.

Vow To Wow is a solid prospect for the winter at WEG. She left hard at Hoosier last time, yielded willingly, followed and then rallied late, but the top bunch were a bit much for her. She is young, learning and progressing. I could see her winning this, but maybe next time. As J Mac has never driven her before, he might be a bit conservative the first time. I'd use her in the pick 5, but she might need one over this track and post 8 could do her in, assuming she is live. 

Maddys Credit broke her maiden early, and thus was up against it when she had to face more talented and
advanced fillies last winter. She was finally shut down and didn't even get to try OSS fillies. She has returned now with one tightener and a huge class break from the race office as they open up the maiden class on earnings to let her in. She certainly has to start better though to beat them all. That has been an issue for her most nights. She broke her maiden leaving a bit and then brushing to the top and winning in a time that would probably beat most, if not all, of these. She is a contender.

Tisdall Hanover draws poorly again. She wanted to leave hard last time, but post 8 forced her to take a tuck. She stayed in, wisely, and was behind a stopper who shuffled her back to last of those who were with the pack. She finished even, and if she had drawn better this time, I'd consider her. I will watch her this time for a future possible play.

Columnist drew chalk money in a very weak and suspect maiden field last time, and as often happens when a 28 time maiden who sports a few fast times and on the board finishes does that, she reverts to the style and ability that continues to keep her in this class. She has tried various styles, first up, brush to the top, cut the mile. None have worked. I will look elsewhere. 

Dorabella Is a 25 time maiden and has never shown she wants to win a race. She is more than happy to sit and pick up smaller pieces, and as such, I have to continue to pass on her. She has always lacked punch in the stretch. 

Two Sides Of Love is hard to back as a first time starting 2yo with one qualifier in which she stayed well back and didn't show much overall speed. Lets see what she can do in a race for money. Possibly she can be played next time. I have to see her and how she travels and responds to the demand for more speed. 

Ponder The Dream was well bet when she first came out last winter, but always found a way to get beat. She was moved out of McNair's barn, but has not done much for Giles. She is a solid leaver, but lacks the overall speed that most WEG contenders have that end up making it to nw2 and out of a maiden race. She is another at 24 times a maiden. I see 25 in her immediate future. 

Seven Angels broke her WEG maiden at 28-1 against a very poor group, after beating similar at KD. Back at nw2, she was well whipped. She gets a free pass to try maidens again, but these are much tougher at the top end of the field. Being a poor leaver from post 7 means she would have to work for it and show some grit. I dont see it. Pass.

Race 2 

Moonshine Balls gets a trainer change back to Mehlenbacher, as the Hummel experiment was a complete bust. He does show a fast win at Vernon last year, but Vernon is Vernon. He also tried to gun out in the spring, but that failed. As I got to him, and couldn't find anything to like with the top 8 above him, and I am willing to list him on top and accept that he is hard to like in most circumstances. In a race like this, hoping for a complete form reversal from a horse that shows some flashes of talent is all you can hope for. Obviously if you are playing the pick 5, this is the leg to go very deep. 

Absolut Seelster can leave fast and follow. That got him the maiden win. It could win him this race also by default. I will play him second, but post 10 might not be an issue for him if enough of them run early and he is one of the few confident leavers who gets out ahead of them. 

The Power Of Many shows her record at 2 at Northfield, and is 0 for 24 this year, even with Moreau calling the shots. She was over her head in the Autumn, and had broken equipment last time, which I can give her a pass for. She has also had post position issues for a few starts. That is a lot of benefit of the doubt, and only because these are so soft will I give her a shot. She has shown gate speed at times, and as we saw last week in this class, that goes a long way to overcome lack of talent with these types. 

Missedbyaday has hooked some pretty tough customers, Dancer Hall, Hill of A Colt and Golden Son when he was rolling along, and has also been double digits almost every start. Per takes over and I suspect some sort of test drive, tuning up is going on this time. I will pass on the win front. If he sorts this one out, I'd be willing to take a shot with him next time. 

Work That Magic drops out of the Autumn Series, where she bombed out, once as the favorite, and back in where she won 3 back. However, she paraded sore two back and raced like it in the stretch, and wasn't that much better last time. I see her as a false favorite and will go against her.

Chic Chick broke her maiden at 36-1, but has since looked horrid. She is an ugly gaited traveler, and I cant back her against winners based on the sum of her issues.

Asterix found just the right mix of rats on a lucky night for her to get her lone win. She has always been ugly gaited, although she has improved a bit in that respect for Guitard, who is very good with young trotters and sorting out issues. Her final quarters are consistently awful though, and the field that beat her last time was about as bad as it gets. I have to see something positive first from her. I have not yet.

Profound Patience showed some promise in the summer, but has regressed and has not looked dangerous for some time. Coming off a gate break, I have to think she is out to get a clean line, if that is possible. Pass.

Tattle Tale Hall is 2 for 43 lifetime, both those wins coming at Georgian Downs. She is prone to making breaks, and stopping even when she doesn't. She tried to wire them October 6th but completely caved in. I cant see how she competes for the win, even with these suspect ones.

Grego has never shown he is anything more than a small cheque getter who picks those up when others break or back through the field. Pass.

Race 3 

Mitt Jagger has been a complete bust since he looked like a promising 2yo. Coming off 3 bad posts, and a further class drop here, I can cut him some slack and hope he wakes up. He can leave a ton when asked to, and that might get him the 2 hole trip on Saftic's back. 

Avatartist was given every chance on the class drop last time, but he gave it up late. The winner of that has been razor sharp of late, and overall, even with him stopping last time, a repeat of that mile might take this very poor bunch. Dont know that I want a very short price though. Anything under 2-1 would lead me to pass on him and take a shot with something else. I see that price coming, so I took him 2nd and go with a longer shot on top.

Woggy Rocks has fallen on very hard times after he was a bearcat in the claimers last winter. Off his last mile, and those Trois Rivieres lines, I will look elsewhere. He has woken up before off some bad lines. I can list him 3rd with a shot because of that. 

Dreydl Hanover needed one last time, and finished evenly with a very poor group. These aren't any better overall. He is a very low percentage winner, but at times shows he can step up. I will give him a shot to upset the obvious favorite. He needs to leave a lot better to have a shot at capitalizing on a probable slow final quarter this bunch seems known for. 

Blue Chip Sunshine comes in with weak B track racelines, but has won here before on his good nights. I'd probably use him in the pick 5 if I had one more spot. 

Vital Sign drew bad last time, which I could forgive, if he didn't look so lame on the last turn. That was an issue for him for years, until he somehow turned it around, got claimed a few times and won his way up the ladder. Osullivan gave up on him, Zeron bought him, and as good as he is with helping this kind, it doesn't appear that is working. I see a 5 claimer in his immediate future. Pass for me, even with the much better post.

Shadow Margeaux loses Phil and has been a bust to this point for Puddy, even though he has been overbet heavily every time. I could see him up in the center of the track again if he sticks to his antics. 

Cams Tux could not be any lamer or have worse form. I will leave it at that.

Race 4

Rockin Ronnie got a solid steer last time, and was in the right place at the right time when the leader caved. He just missed and even from this post, he is a player tonight. He is an obvious contender and the one to beat in my view. He shows fast overall speed at the Big M. That could be enough to beat this weak group.

About A Boy seemed to be ready early, but then came up sick. His qualifier was ok enough, as the winner of that is a solid stakes winner. If he has one more second in the bag, and chooses to drive him to win in his first lifetime start for money, he is possible. Bringing him out now suggests he doesn't see a stakes future for him, so why not go after the money that this overnight offers? He can take my top choice, and is a must use in the pick 4 as I see it. 

Hooter Shooter Is a late starting 3yo who caught my eye last week with an impressive post parade appearance and a nice overall pedigree. He raced solid and split horses late for 2nd money. He is hard to fault, but being he has started this late, there has to be some issues. He looks like 4-5 to me, and I will go elsewhere. These types, the ones who show up late, race great their first lifetime, often bomb and then come on again a few starts down the road when the price goes up. I will play that angle and list him as viable, but beatable. 

Francis Xavier is the unknown here. A 4yo Camluck making his first lifetime start with that driver. A homebred off 2 qualifiers with the 9 hole. He scares me as these types sometimes just pop off on you. In the pick 4, I'd be inclined to use him to cover my ass. His slow starts are a big issue though. Your call. I have to see what he looks like in the post parade. Being race 4, you get to see him before deciding to use him or toss him. 

Hughgetthecredit is just a small horse, but he is speedy and can leave fast. That gets him a nice trip like last time and the time before. I would think Renaud has learned that sitting in is his shot to get the most he can from this one at this track. I'm not sure he is A track quality at this point, and might need to become that later next year in a claimer when he improves. For now, I see him as a bit player. 

Hes Gone Bad made a decent buck at 2 being 2nd a lot and staying a maiden. He was raced hard and long and has only made 3 starts this year, all well spaced out. That is not a good sign. I cant back him for the win, and will watch him closer tonight now that he is making two starts closer together. Possible future play if I like what I see. 

Toy Cop made a down the road attempt last time, and that might have worked considering the bomb out nature of that field, but he found a way to get beat. He's 0 for 15 now and I've seen enough. He can beat me if he somehow leaves and sits a 2 hole trip and saves his limited overall talent for one late brush against a weak bunch. I cant count on all of that when he is going to be a shorter price than some others in here who havent showed they are failures yet. 

Shadow Rolls shows nothing to suggest he is ready to race with those who can pace in 55 or better. He is a full brother to Shadow Margeaux, and we see the issues that one has. I have to see something positive first, and if he were to try the B's, I'd probably go against him there also at this point.

Spaniard had every chance at Hanover to break the goose egg, but completely caved in there. He backed away badly last time, in spite of two faves bombing, and the leader stopping to a walk in the lane. I dont see any hope for this one, and wouldn't even play the 26 time maiden at the B tracks.

Sedona Seelster has always been a really bad gaited stopper. He is 0 for 25 with terrible last quarters. Doug Hie rarely wins at this track and he couldn't even get this horse across all summer at KD in a phony 6 claiming maiden. I cant see how he does it here. Pass and toss.

Race 5

I'd use my top 5 in both pick exotics and hope to get any one of the 5. I'm fairly certain the winner isn't coming from the bottom 5, but have no opinion on who is the winner from the top 5, although I list them in order of probability.

Jac Spade seems to be coming to good form, which Campbell aims him at this time of the year. He stays to the class he can compete in, and he will close late off the right trip if they go enough in front of him. He has a history of winning this class when he should. I cant find anything else to play, so, he is my pick, by default. I'd need 7-2 at least to even think about trying him on top straight. 

Royal Canvas as expected, he stepped up in the care of Bourassa, who is good with his kind. He still didn't look very sound coming down the lane, but he has a lot of company in this race for that title. I can make a case for him on the trainer improve and one good start with him. He has occasionally shown flashes of speed, and if he is now sound enough to maintain that over an entire mile, he is viable with these. I list him for 2nd. 

Twin B Shadow gets Lasix for team Waxman and Cullen. Post 9 is an issue, but we've seen this group gas them up and send them, something Cullen loves to do anyway. I give him the outsiders chance based on what is in here, and the variables he brings to the table. He should effect the outcome either way, whether he gets his picture taken or not. 

Lightning Legs seems like one who could step up here. He had a troubled trip 2 back, then didn't do anything much last time. But he has shown flashes of decent form in the last couple of months, and on a good night, he is as good or better than most of these on current form. Shot. 

Scotty Mach N comes back to this circuit at a lower level, for high percentage trainer Kelly Sheppard. Post 10 is obviously trouble, but he is a 30 time winner with better form than most of these. I'd have to use him in the picks. 

Calgary Seelster somehow sucked it up and got it done 2 back, although it wasnt pretty. He tried to leave last time, but was up in the center of the track and eased home. He is living on borrowed time it seems, but these are terrible. Your call. I will continue to go against him. I don't like what I see and he draws a short price no matter how bad he looks on the track the previous time or times. 

Who Dey last time I saw him at WEG, he looked like he broke down in the stretch and past the wire. He has come back to life, as Moase is prone to get a few more out of them after he lays them off. They also regress quickly from that. I will go in other directions. 

Goodmorningmister is one I've never liked and he gradually worked his way off this circuit last year. He shows back up, but even on his best days, he had trouble sealing the deal in this class. He backed away badly in a 6500 at Rideau. I dont see any change in his ability. Pass. 

Pylater next to Cams Tux, I cant think of a lamer looking pacer currently racing at WEG. I will leave it there. 

Mammoth Jack has trouble competing for smaller cheques at the B tracks. Even though most of these are either lame, past their prime, or both, he still will have trouble doing anything about that.

Race 6

Way Outta Here if he behaves, he jogs. He has a monumental edge on these. I'm not sure post matters for one who is willing to sit last and just roll by them. That being said, Would I take 9-5 on him from this post? No, I would not. I would pass the race, which is what I will do. I will list the others I think you could use in the pick 4 if you want to try that, and of course, he is one as well. I wouldn't single him, but he has to be included. 

Escuela, Totally Ripped and P L Hercules all look possible if the 9 bombs and they get the trip they need. I dont see others as very dangerous for the win.

Race 7 

P L Jasmine has been coming late, and wide, and in the Autumn she couldn't pass those. She can beat these if she stays the same or even progresses a little. Top call. 

Connie Mach stopped badly in the Autumn last time, but if she could get a softer trip near the front, she can obviously take this fairly weak group. Contender. 

Bettys Bay has talent but isnt the soundest filly. With this weak field, she is dangerous, but I like others better. 

Northern Prima Improved a lot on the switch to Arsenault last time, which seems to happen when they move to him. But post 8 tonight, I think she might be at best looking for 4th money. I will watch though. She could get it done in the next few if she stays on the right track. For the longest time, she appeared on the wrong track. 

Lady Crazy was up for 2nd last time, but she was no threat to the winner, who is no bearcat. I like others for now. Lets see her do it again. 

Life Groove shows her wins at the B tracks, and seems like a bit player type at this track. I cant rate her higher until I see more. 

Lucky Player is very much a trip horse and hanger if asked to work for it. I didnt mind her with maidens, but she would have to catch a very soft nw2 field to go all the way. These are soft. Not soft enough the way I see it. 

On The Minute Mark broke her maiden against softer, but is in deep with these. I havent seen anything to suggest she is on the ticket at this point in this class. 

Jimmys Little Girl couldn't quite cut it with Grassroots types, and back in with nw2, she doesn't seem viable either. Post 9 tonight and she got parked out and faded last time. I can only thinks he tucks and looks for a small cheque here. 

Casimir Operaqueen might have been viable and interesting if not for post 10. I will look her over for another try, if that happens. She might be here to be sold. If so, she could end up in the hands of someone that might be able to gas her up for a couple of starts. She bears watching.

Race 8

Deweykeepumnwhy takes a big class drop and gets a new trainer tonight. Of course, that will draw the bettors attention. Since Jackie Mo has driven him, and won with him, perhaps he thinks there is something he can do with this horses issues, which have always included making breaks. He was trotting along fine last time, so it wasn't an attitude issue. He simply looked like he interfered up front. Post parade should be important here. If he can go clean, he takes this bunch on his speed and class edge. I'd need 3-1 to assume that risk. That is possible, but you never know with the bettors.

Amityville Lindy comes off 3 bad posts and now gets to drop down where he won last time. He has matured out of that horrid gait he had as a colt, and settled into a nice class mover on this circuit. Tonight he is in the right spot to pounce if the 2 isnt back to all systems go. 

Mystery Bet continues to draw poorly and start terrible. That is a hole that is hard to dig out of. He has not been as potent this year as he was last year, but he is capable enough to pounce if the top 2 choices dont perform. P Mac gets along well with him and that is a plus for sure. Shot.

Covert Operative seems to travel a lot. He has seen 5 different tracks on the page, and none of them were WEG tracks. He has also been to Yonkers this year for a good stretch. The talent is there, but he just has issues. He made a break last time and that cost him. That has always been an issue for him. Per drives tonight. That indicates to me he is test driving him for the catch driver down the road. Pass and watch him tonight. Per will turn him around and pass him to CC or Randy when the time is right.

Cracker Zack has more than enough talent to go forward off the claim for Jason Ryan. He did the exact same thing with Utopia, and Cracker Zack is probably the much stronger and faster horse in comparison. His mind issues however have always been an issue. I will have to watch him once here. He isn't facing Girl Drama and Toga Town this time. There are too many who look like they will give him a tussle if he makes the gate and wants the front, and he is prone to jumping it off if you push him like that.

Severus Hanover earned just enough last time to not fit that condition. He has to move up here, which poses a problem for him. He drops that bottom line tonight, and I will watch to see how he is for next time, when he gets in with those again. He is a fast leaver and has speed, but can be a nutcase. I want to see his current level of brains before I back him on the likely class drop next time. Pass and watch for tonight.

Kinetic King was parked out last time and jumped it off, which he is prone to do every few starts. I can overlook that on him. Its part of his DNA. I cant overlook his 1 for 24 record nor his drivers very low win percentage over the years. If he goes clean, and finds a soft spot going forward, I can watch him closely that night. Pass for me tonight.

Summit City Nate does well at the B tracks, but struggles at this track especially when he isnt in the bottom condition, which he isnt tonight. Pass . 

Hubby Number One has to move up, as he picked up 5th money last time, and also draws bad. He will have to be watched for a decent try down the road when he drops money off his card. The breaks he makes are also an issue to consider when he finds a viable spot. I watch his form for that. For tonight, no shot.

Kennel Buddy his form plus this post equals zero shot.

Race 9 

Bugger Bruiser raced awful 2 back, which was unusual for him. He turned it right back around last time, and was solid. He drops big time here and I have to assume he was sick the night he caved in from a 2 hole trip. He looks to be way too much for this group, and only Aslan on the turn around and previous talent level has a legit shot at him. If Mister X were to torture him that could soften him up. That is the only way I see him getting beat. I'd single him if I were playing the late pick 4. 

Aslan was given every chance by Zeron last time, but he just didn't pace forward. He has done that before, then turned it back around. He isn't the same horse he was a couple of years ago, but he finds an even softer spot here. He looks 2nd best to the obvious favorite, but he isnt impossible to turn the tables on him. Perhaps Jody can wake and shake him up and send him out of there. 

Mister X has been known to blast and go a very long way on the front end at the B tracks. That wont work here, but he can be a problem for Bugger Bruiser. Hopefully Phil uses his head and doesn't drive like Oliver does on him. I cant see him winning either way, but if he were to leave and stay in, he could nab a piece of the tri. 

B N Bad was 3rd 3 weeks ago in this class, but that was a very soft field, and this time its tougher, and he has the 8 hole. I could see him getting 3rd or 4th, but no better. 

Frankie Boy was NFG on Monday, and comes back on 2 days rest. For a pretty lame one like him, I cant see how that goes well. Pass. 

Uf Bettors Hanover was given every chance by Fillion last time on the class drop, but he stopped when headed. He looks to be in pretty deep against a few of the inside ones

Every Day goes from a straight 8 into this condition. Many nights, that would have been a pretty decent sideways move. Unfortunately for him, he hooks Bugger Bruiser and Aslan, and others who aren't cheap claimers but just down on their luck. Pass.

They Call Me Gordy takes the class drop, 2nd off the shelf, but he is 0 for 28 and generally a weak finisher. I dont see that getting it done with these.

Race 10 

New Standard is the type that wins races like this. He took forever to break his maiden, mostly because he never left and stayed way back, came too late and just missed. That seemed to be by design, as once he broke his maiden he was in no mans land. He doesn't seem to be able to handle nw2, and aborted that mission last time for the claimer. Drury is on the shelf, so J Mac reunites with him. He has matured into a slightly better leaver, and J Mac is gaining a rep as a leave, stay in, find a seam and get up late with mid level talents like this. I will call him for the upset. Its a stab, but a stab is what is required with this bunch. He did leave better last time, from the dreaded rail at Woodbine, then was behind a bad stopper than curtailed his momentum when it mattered. He regrouped and finished as fast as any of them, albeit giving them a big head start.

Mr Mach Jimmy was foolishly entered in the Autumn, where he was a 70-1 shot both times, drew poorly, gapped the field and paced home late when they slowed down. Hard to know what he can do with these when you race him like that. He goes to Moreau, draws better, and drops in a claimer. All of that gets him overbet for sure. He has a shot on the variables that give him a shot. I will still play him to get beat at a short price. 

Notetoself Hanover blasted out of there last time and had every chance to win it, following the chalk the rest of the way. He simply couldnt pass him late, or didnt want to. He seems to lack the killer instinct, something you see from a lot of the Big Jim's. These are pretty soft, and he avoids the one that beat him last time. He still can find a way to be 2nd or 3rd and lose this race. Trevor is on the sidelines and Saftic gets the call. I could see that making a bit of a difference for a less than motivated type like this. 

Just A Thought acts like he simply has no interest in racing. He actually refuses to turn and go to the gate most times, and even tried to stop once in a race, almost knocking down a field. When he does race, and is convinced to try, he can win, as he did 2 back. It could be either scenario tonight.

Carolina Hurricane has been sucker money for the bettors since the day he stepped on the track last year. He has earned a good buck for his owners though, and has chased some tough customers at times and not been disgraced. Every time he gets in a soft spot, like last time, he just finds a way to bomb. Last time he made the lead, then was all done by the last turn. Mid summer, he didn't even make the gate at a very short price. He gets Lasix tonight, but that looks like a desperate, kitchen sink type of move. He appears spent and used up, chasing tough customers that ground whatever ability he has down to close to zero. They say 5 claimers are generally not born, but made, and he fits that profile. This is a 15 claimer. So,he is not there yet, in my view. Post 10 is enough to make me more confident he will not get it done again tonight.

Lil Richie is the type that will win this class once this winter, as he does just enough to get lucky on the right night. Most nights, he is a bit player who finishes even. I will call him for that again tonight. He has improved, just not enough to win. He needs at least another second of finishing speed, and he hasn't shown that is there.

The Avenger won this class once, but has regressed badly since. Post 9 is enough to suggest tonight isnt the night for him to turn that around. 

Windsun Falls blasted out from the 9 hole last time and was sitting perfect the entire way. That didn't help him much, as he was gapping by the half, running in and trying to break on the last turn, and while steadied, backpeddled from there. He ran the start before that, and is lucky he isn't on the list. He looks more like a B track horse, but maybe needs a bigger track to do that, like Georgian. That doesn't help him at this point of the year, as he is in no mans land. Pass. 

Chalky won the maiden in 54, then went off the rails and was moved from Remmen to Pat, and that has not helped. He ran last time and was distanced. Pass for me. He has to show me something to go on. Pat didn't drive him last week, but does this time. I suppose he is tinkering with him. Lets see how that goes. 

Lyons Delight is a slow starting B track type. I dont see him as viable on this circuit. KD closed, he is out of luck and options but is still raceable, so they take a shot here. Judging by his Flamboro attempt, he didn't like the half mile track, which is where he belongs.

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