Saturday, November 19, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 18, 2016

Race 1

VICTORIA SEMALU in a race where you look for an angle when many seem ordinary, but also possible, this one goes to Moreau and picks up Fillion. That is good enough for me. She isnt far off taking them anyway, and she is a pretty solid leaver. Post 6 is the best post at Woodbine and the front has been golden so far. That is where she wants to be, likes to be, and is likely to be. Top call on that angle.

LIGHTS GO OUT is not the mare she was a couple of years ago, and she has settled into a class mover. The drop and pop type who finds herself in the drop position tonight. She is hard to discount when she can get to the top, be brave, and boss these types around. Her last few have been poor, and as such, I will go with another. She could prove me wrong. I just dont like what I see currently.

BIG TSUNAMI has certainly responded and stepped up to the training of Jim Ritchie, who is solid and knows how to move one up. She just missed to Selling The Dream, who appears headed to the Preferred in due time. Like many Mister Big's, she just finds a way to get beat in any class. She is a contender, but I will have to go with something that shows more desire to win when the money is on the line.

REGAL LUCK  took back early last time, had excess cover, but wasnt doing much on her own other than pace with the pack. She wins every now and then, but most nights, she just hunts for cheques. I will go with not tonight and go elsewhere.

DONTBRUISECARRIE overall is a pretty nice race mare. She does enough overall to earn a decent buck, and be competitive. But, she doesn't do anything exceptionally well. She isn't fast off the gate, she isnt gritty enough to pull first up and grind down a leader, like she attempted last time, and she wont vault off cover and blow by the pack. Thus, she hardly wins. I will keep that opinion unless she proves me wrong. Pass.

AINTSHEASWEETIE ships in and draws post 7 with Davis. I was inclined to think she was a horse to use in the pick 5, but there are too many strikes against her here and there are more than enough contenders to think she could beat them all. She has responded to Carmen, and I will watch her for a better spot down the road. She wasn't the soundest mare in the past, but she has lasted nonetheless.

AINSLEYNOELLE won the level below this, but hasn't found a way or trip since trying these. Another class mover who probably needs to move back down. She isn't impossible, but there are too many others who are more likely. Pass.

REGALLY READY post 9 and I expect Zeron to take back to last and hunt for a small cheque, and race her next week if she draws better.

NAUGHTY LADY B moves up and draws bad off a perfect trip where she beat many who would be huge longshots in this race. Total pass. 

ST LADS PENNY LANE was an early scratch.

Race 2

MAJOR MUSCLE  is a major hot potato in the post parade, and that can cost her at times. Jackie Mo has been on her now awhile, and maybe has learned to settle her a bit. He got her a cheap half two back and that was enough. She almost held off the hot filly she meets again in the last start. I will call her to turn the tables tonight and open up enough on the last turn to get there first. If she parades like a crazy hot mare again, all bets are off. She has to relax better to be tactical now that she is up in class and she can't rely on pure speed to win.

SAFEKEEPING  was given a top steer to just get up late last time, her first try with this level of competition. It didn't look like she would get there, but she wore down the leader. I thought maybe she is getting a shade tired, and as she moves up, she is more vulnerable to go down. I will play  against her this night as likely to do that.

MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL has been going in the wrong direction lately, and finished poorly in her last two in particular. As with most of Bax's, I expect her to turn it around one night. Not tonight for me, but I continue to watch her and see where her issues might be, and if she seems better in the post parade one night.

ITS ALL ABOUT SAM was a decent Sire Stakes filly last year and banked 58k. Like many of those, that took its toll on her and she paid the price this year. She got lasix last time but it didn't seem to matter. She is 2nd time lasix tonight. Some like that angle. I do on the right horse. She did trot a 3rd quarter in 27.3, and that is something. I will watch her tonight and see if she can trot a more complete mile and be closing or keeping up near the end. Pass on the betting front tonight. She is possible down the road if she progresses.

HURRICANE HAZEL is 3 for 47 lifetime, and now coming off a sick scratch. She often winds up on the last turn and looks like she is going to get it done, but seems to remember who her sire is at the tote board and slows down. I cannot back her with what I've seen so far. On the right night, at the right price, I will, and have caught her before doing that. Tonight doesn't seem to be that night.

GIANT MUSCLES his post, plus his form, plus his slow starts and that he has yet to crack 57 add up to a toss for me.

WORLD CLASS IZZY is one I've never liked on her terrible gait and less than inspiring desire to beat horses. At this level, she looks about 2 seconds short of anything that is contentious anyway. I toss her with confidence. She is better off at the B tracks. 


 Race 3

GEORGIES POCKETS has toyed with these twice, and is 11 for 19 lifetime, mostly racing in Stakes races. That is very impressive by anyone's measure. He doesn't seem to have any holes, and with this bunch, he is very hard to go against. I wont. Probably 1-5, and of course, that is not win bet territory. I'd single him in the picks.

INNOVATIVE FORCE blasted out of there from the 10 hole last time and cut the mile with the confidence of a 2-1 shot. He hung in there and only got beat because of the bearcat he meets again. That was the mile of his brief life, and I can go back to him and hope he puts two together, hoping it was not a fluke. I cant see why Phil wouldn't try that again.

ROSE RUN RUDI is all over the map in terms of how he races and performs. That leads me to think he is not a bad one to list up in the top 3. These finals sometimes have strange race tactics employed by the drivers, and give hope to those like this one who just need things to shake out their way. He has won at this track in 56.3. He isn't impossible if the chalk blows up.

JLS BAD MOON RISIN  is a very slow starter, even from better posts. Post 1 for a trotter at Woodbine is not ideal, and he is probably looking at coming late for a share, like last time. He couldn't even pick up a 114-1 longshot last time. So, if the chalk blows up, he is hard to like as the one. He has banked 70k on 2 lifetime wins, neither of which came at the A track. Probably a good London horse, or a 15 claimer once this series is over.

MONOPOLY caught the softer split last time and hung in for 3rd. He could do that again if things go his way, but I cant see any better for him, even if the fave blows up. He is about 4th best on the pecking order here, and doesn't look to move up the corporate ladder.

UNITED BI  gunned out, controlled the tempo and then came a slow back half to win 2 back in leg 1. Last week, he had to follow, got locked in, and never got out. Post 8 hurts him here. I will pass because of that. No friends in the final, and he is likely to get hung the mile if he tries to leave. If he takes back, there will be a lot of traffic in his way. I cant see him tonight.

THE LAND SHARK can leave fast and carry that a bit, but seems short when they come to the payoff. Fillion chose his stablemate over him. That is good enough for me. I don't like him anyway. Not in this spot with this bunch. Another day this winter, maybe.

MISSION MAN tripped out last time from the 10 hole, but he was in the much softer split and I doubt he gets the chance to get that trip here. He doesn't show as much pop when he is asked to work for it. Post hurts him tonight. Pass.

WINDSUN MISSILE  was foolishly overbet last week and never trotted a step. Per drives from post 10 and I cant see any way he makes the ticket.

MOONSTAR MISSION blew up last time, and looked pretty iffy coming to the wire when he won the previous time. He is basically a bust at this stage. I will go elsewhere until I see some consistency and soundness, and that he can put those starts back to back.

Race 4

MISS JONES SHOOTER as expected, was ready to rock and roll last time, and could have pulled the pocket at any point. She drew off like one who is likely to reel off as many as they let Weller have in this class. She could even draw the claim tonight. I dont see anything that can go with her in this bunch.Weller tinkered with her while he raced her above her head. Now that he has her sorted out, he will cash in. Being there are a few class droppers in here, I would think 2-1 or higher is reasonable, and I'd want that to play her. She is the now horse.

CHARMING HILL  draws much better here, and she is a fast leaver who likes to sit and move as late as possible. These are her people, and if anything beats the fave here, its her. She looks 2nd best to me, but stranger things have happened. Because they are claimers, I'd have to use her as a backup to the choice for the pick 4 and 5. 

GLORY JEAN ships west with high earnings and a pile of wins. She has no choice but to go right into the claimers. I suppose she is possible, but I want to see one with her racing in overall faster fractions. That can do those types in. 57 over Charlottetown is a solid mile, but even some 5 claimers can do that there. It doesn't always translate like we used to think it did. Watching. 

BRING ME DIAMONDS made the gold Superfinal, and wasnt embarrassed in that against a pretty tough group. She made a move for the top last time, but was picked up by two others who are legit condition horses. Its a curious move to tag her here. She takes the higher tag, and gets post 9. I think she is ripe to go down. I will list her off the ticket. She bears watching though. She has enough talent on the right night, for the right price, to be played in this class.

JUMP JIVE AND JAM is another dropping out of that condition race and taking the higher tag. That doesn't do her any favors, and she has shown, without control and an easy trip, she will not finish. Not tonight for me.

RADAR TRAP has put 30k away, but she doesn't seem to be able to handle conditioned types, so she is tagged tonight. She has to do a lot more to handle the top 2 or 3 in here. I will watch her. She looks good for 4th or 5th money if she stays on the pylons and comes out late.

MORE THAN MANY drops into a claimer after she couldn't keep up with condition types, as she isn't a maiden anymore. Post 8, plus her last quarters of late, no thanks. Lets see her find a level.

BOOZER BRUISER was wildly inconsistent as a 2yo, sometimes winning, other times walking from the turn home. She has not fared well this year, and off her last two, cannot be used. I respect Lou Eft enough to know he will get her right and where she needs to be. This doesn't look like that spot. He tries BLINKERS TO OPEN. Lets see if that helps.

QUEENOFHEARTS couldn't win a maiden at this track and was well back of the same ones she meets again, plus some new ones that have more talent than her anyway. Pass and toss. She looks more like a London candidate if they don't want to shut her down and wait for Northville in the spring.

BONNIES GEM  doesn't seem capable of handling winners at this track, now, and maybe even down the road. Breaking her maiden at KD was probably not the best long term move for her. Since they have taken to opening that class up to nw15k life, I could see her back in that spot. Not in this one. She is overmatched. 

Race 5

MAPLELEA has found the aged mares a lot tougher than the younger stakes ones she beat up on last year. She has worked her way down to this bunch, but still has not been able to swoop them like she did last year. Eventually, she is going to put it together, She still tries and can fly late. I will go to her tonight, now that the price is likely to float up.

GREYSTONE LADYLIKE has to be respected on her resume, and she takes a small class drop here and draws well. She isn't always sound, but if she parades that way tonight, expect Saftic to blast her out of there and try to wire them. She now has one back from the vet scratch, and a few since the layoff. Not my top choice, but certainly in the mix.

SOUTHWIND GEISHA has a habit of starting slow, and then having to grind off a tough trip. She is gritty, and on the right night, with the right trip, she is possible. I like a couple of others better, but she is a use in the picks if you play that.

YOUR MY SECRET draws better and gets Fillion. She can effect the outcome with her gate speed, and I would not be shocked if she somehow got on the ticket late. I don't like her to win, but she is triactor material. 
RIDE AWAY SHARK has gotten away poorly twice in a row. That is a bad sign for a mare that likes to blast out and either ramble on the front or sit in and pull late. She drops here, and will take action, but I like others better and will call her to miss the ticket.

SING LIKE AN ANGEL might be viable at the bottom, but these appear too tough for her. She is finding her way in this province, but the fields are larger, tougher, and she cant dominate them with her speed and breeding like she did back home. When challenged, she hangs late. As she did last time at Flamboro.

REGAL ROXY swims with the sharks tonight, not the goldfish. Pass. She has never shown me she is anything more than a cheap claimer, albeit a pretty good and sharp one now.
BAROCKY won at the bottom, but against these, with the pressure they can put on you, she either runs or folds. No thanks. I've never liked her and unless she is at the bottom, and even then, I don't fear her in the least.

MISS COCO LUCK draws the outside, and we have seen what that means for her chances as one who needs to be out close and then follow. Another night, or a class drop and better post. Not tonight.


Race 6

DOCS DIVA  has been racing for almost a year now, but she seems to be slowly improving, just a bit more each month. Tonight, she picks up Randy, which is an obvious upgrade and he is a money driver. I will call her in the upset. She will need a few things to go her way. The scratches help her for sure.

TRILIFE has stepped up lately and seems to be coming on as the winter approaches. I could take her on top, but she still hasn't beat these yet. I will put her 2nd, but she wouldn't be a shock.
TOP ROYAL had a tough post last time, and made a break. She won the first leg try, and she just seems like the type that rebounds well off bad performances. She is a contender, but I like others. The post improvement really helps her cause.

LADY MARINA has enough talent, but she isnt very sound and it seems when she races on, she really feels it. Without her two main rivals, she looks tough and gets a much better post. I still will pick against her. She can prove me wrong.

JIMBELINA is a sharp leaver, and has only missed the ticket once this year, which is very impressive. These are a bit tougher than she has ever beaten, but she is right there if the trip works out. Shot and use in the pick 4.

QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE loses Fillion and has a very weak win record. Keep your eye on her back in the nw classes, but I dont think she can take all of these.

TEMPUS SEELSTER catches a break with the scratches, but even so, she just barely held last time, off the most perfect trip you can get. I dont care for her lack of desire to fight when others come to her, which is a family trait on her dams side. Pass.

 DEWAR N SODA draws the outside, and that is enough to relegate her to a very outside shot. I like others. If she had drawn better she might have been a player and might be a decent one to follow as the winter progresses.

Race 7

TWOMACSONEMACH is one of those with a lot of talent and as many issues to go with it. He showed that last winter at Pompano, and even here he has done the same. Last time, he kept it together and won his leg. I will play his risky form and put him on top, for what should be a price with the obvious two taking the bulk of the money.

ARCHANGEL THREE didn't look very sound parading last time, but he certainly comes to play when he goes behind the gate. He is a slow starter but in the mix if they battle in front of him. I list him 2nd based on that, but he could pass them all if the right things happen.

THINK ON IT has cut it twice, won both legs, and now has 4 in a row. Hard to not like him. But, he has also had it his own way and not really been pushed. That wont be the case tonight. I can see him getting beat, but staying on for the ticket.

P L JACKSON is tough not to put in the top 3, and I almost did. He is just a nice, consistent colt who is improving as he goes. But, he just doesn't pace right to the wire like some of the others at this point. He could make me regret leaving him off the ticket, but others show just a shade more for now.

SENIOR K went a long trip last time from the 9 hole and gave it up late. He draws better here and will take heavy action. I can see that mile hurting him, as he obviously is not very sound. I will go against him and leave him off the ticket.

MACH POWER  was back to running in really bad in the turns last time, and appeared to crash and bang with Mayfield Duke, who wasn't steering well beside him. I cant go near this one when he is like that. I will watch for some sign Carmen has gotten him sorted out. That appeared to be the case when he got him, but he has regressed again. Pass.

MAYFIELD DUKE has not impressed me with his on track appearance of late. He was borderline dangerous to steer last time, and that has not been the first time. Pass.

SURE FIRED BET is 2 for 27 and has the 9 hole. He could have been triactor material if he had drawn better. He still could sneak into 3rd, but I will go to others because he drew bad. Harding gets them to go. So, there is that. Another day and spot, he might be a play coming soon.

SPEEDLING post plus form means a pass for me.

BUGATTI is a no play with post 10. Nuff said. 

Race 8

MANOFMANYIMAGES is very good right now, and has been for a few weeks. He avoids the top two from last time, both of who were top stakes horses during the last couple of years on their best day. He was right there with them. His slow starts put him at the mercy of the pace and traffic. Post 1 doesn't help that cause, but I will stick with him.

HONOR ABOVE ALL starts slow and digs himself a hole. I will go to another who will bring value underneath my top choice. He is dangerous enough though. 

Note: I had picked Amoreuse Hanover for 2nd, but she was scratched. That moved him up to my 2nd choice.

UNICUM BI  will have to show me he can compete at this level and with Per driving, that is enough of a reason to watch him for now. He is likely to develop into a good one, but I'm not sold he is that close to that yet. Maybe by February.

MERCHANDISER will be handled by Peck tonight. He isn't the worst guy out there, but he isn't a professional driver in a race where driver will matter. He made a sharp move going down the pike on them the last time he won with him. That worked then. They wont let him try that again. That was then. Tonight, I go elsewhere. He is also a bit off behind. So, that is also a factor in me going to others.

ALLIES GIFT had the rail last time at Flamboro, got the cheap half, and wired them. Those variables aren't in play here. Pass.

MUSCLE AVE draws bad and is only a marginal type in this class anyway. Pass.

WALK TO FOLSOM has come into his own as an aged trotter, something you see every now and then. He doesn't meet LMC Mass Oak or Tymal Tempest here though. That is certainly something to consider. Lets see if he can go forward and get a piece. I'm not certain he is ready for that test.

 WHOSGOINGTOCATCHUS has a solid record at the Bs controlling the pace. Post 10 here. So much for that.

Race 9

STONEBRIDGE QUEST can leave like a shot and carry that speed a long way. I will call her tonight for the minor upset. I like what I see from her in a lot of ways. These are tough, but she seems up to it.

RUBIS PRESCOTT  takes the big class drop, draws inside, which doesn't help many at this track but can help one like her with that big burst off the wings, and gets JJ who has a history of doing well with her. She is a contender when all that is summed up.

9 LINDWOOD BEACHGIRL draws bad and has been facing some tough customers all year. I can see her coming late for a share, but maybe not raced as tough as need be to win it.

4 SELLING THE DREAM had the 10 hole and just went around last time. Of course she looks tough back with a better post, but I am not certain she is a cinch. I will lay off her this time. I think she is headed to the Preferred by next spring the latest, but she isn't there yet. I wouldn't take the short odds she might bring tonight.

BAD AS LEADER takes the big class drop here, and obviously, she will take money. I'm not sold she isn't just one of many in here. I will go against her and the likely short price.

D GS PESQUERO was her old self last time, leaving hard, and finishing well when she finally got out, which was way too late. She is another who could upset the apple cart here.

REQUEST FOR PAROLE got cat and moused by Trevor last time, but still paced hard to the wire. I give her credit for that. She doesn't generally hold her form for long. I like a few others ahead of her here, and these are much tougher, top to bottom, than last time.

P L HURRICANE comes in off 2 wins, but moves up again. These are beyond her ability as I see it. I will pass on her.

POP GOES THEWEASEL has not returned from a layoff with good form. A couple more and she can drop down. Lets see how she goes before she gets there. No shot tonight with some very sharp ones.

Race 10

MAJESTIC PRESENCE got picked off late last time, but raced great in both legs. She is the logical play here. I will stick with her.

DEVILS ADVOCATE  is and has always been a bad behaver. But, when she does behave, she is as good as any of these. I will take a shot and list her 2nd. She could easily win this. distanced when the gate speeds away. She is just that type.

MAGICAL VALENTINE seemed like she was well meant last time, but stopped on the front. I can give her a pass on that, since she has stepped up before and these aren't deep. Shot.

TRUMPETS tripped out last time, but isn't likely to get that trip this time. She has certainly improved, but is a bit player without post advantage.

WHAMBAMTHANKUMAAM ran early last time, but recovered to finish in the picture. She was 2nd before that. She has soundness issues, but if she has it together tonight, she is a player. Post parade is important here.

STONEBRIDGE PEACE came along well for Henseley on the barn change. She can certainly take these if she continues to trot like that. She has showed flashes of promise. Its a toss up which one of her multiple personalities shows up tonight.

ONE TOO MANY gets trips that indicate she should win, but she comes up short. I cant play her based on what I've seen.

MAJESTIC MISTRESS upset them last time, but she draws bad here and generally isn't that dangerous. I like others better.

 I WANT KANDY is one I cant go near, and wouldn't even if she had drawn well. She didn't anyway. She has a lot of issues.

DAYLINER is 2 for 27 life, and doesn't look dangerous in this company. Too many going better than  her at this stage. 

Race 11

CALL IT COURAGE draws better here and based on her past ability to leave hard, she could be dangerous in a race with most who are tough to take. Upset call.

WILDCAT BEAUTY drops in class and draws well. She also knows how to lose when she looks like she is a player. I will go elsewhere. She has a history of being sucker money.

SHOW SOME LEG draws poorly and will have to rough it or pick up live cover. Live cover implies something live to follow. Hard to see who that can be in with this bunch. I think she gets there too late if she even shows up, which she doesnt always do. I go to others. She does have better form than most. Not because hers is good, because theirs is horrid.

KISS ME OR NOT goes back to Carmen, but from what I've seen from her, even Lou Pena couldn't make her go right now. She has no interest and appears very sore. She can prove me wrong. I think this is a desperate move that wont work, although it has on this change before.

Balance not listed in order. They are all equally impossible to like.

ARTISTIC MADISON appears completely used up and spent. No thanks.

HONOR ROLL even with many who are hard to like, she draws the 10 hole and is a no shot type, and might even be with a better post. B track horse in my view.

LITTLE MISS SPORTY  is impossible to use based on those lines. Nuff said.

LEGAL PROCESS comes in off a poor qualifier, a layoff, and bad lines. I will watch once. Weller is dangerous, but, I cant back this one.
DOCS HOLLYWOOD will have to show a lot more before she can be backed. She did zip off the layoff. Pass.

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