Saturday, November 19, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 21, 2016

Race 1

Note that Jimmy Be Good was 5-1 last week and a contender, not 55-1 as listed in the program.

Lisvinnie has had a string of poor posts as he works himself back down the ladder. He tried to leave last time, and was hung out. Even worse, he had a floater in front of him, and Phil chose to go around him, and then didn't go much more than him and gave that one cover. To his credit, he kept pacing right to the wire. That is something he does. He just hangs out there, and he will pace on late if he gets a reasonable trip. There is good reason to not like a lot of these. I can give him a shot, hoping he somehow can leave and get some kind of trip to save a bit for the end.

Give Em Heck took the high tag in a claiming handicap last time and he did that because he was claimed for that price. That did him in, and he moves up this time, hoping that a better post would appear. It didn't. He drew the 8 hole and now faces tougher, although many of these have awful form. To his credit, he blasted from the 10 hole, and dove into 3rd when that was the only place to go, followed along well the entire way, followed the winner up the cones and then just missed 3rd. He isn't the most motivated type, as his sire would suggest he wouldn't be, but he will go if prodded, something Henry knows how to do and did well last week. He sticks with him. I will go to him for 2nd, with a possible upset. He just has better form than most of these.

Drake left hard last week and secured the 2 hole. He sat in that the entire way, following what turned out to be the wire to wire winner. He gapped him badly in the lane, and couldn't hold off another who appeared to be in trouble himself at the half. That was his 2nd race in 4 days though, and he had a license to be tired because of that. As mentioned before, he finishes 2nd and 3rd a lot more than he wins, although he does win his share too. He has been 3rd in two tries in this class. I will call him for that again. He will win this class once or twice this winter. I will keep him in mind for that spot as it goes forward. His leaving ability is a plus at Woodbine.

New York Nightmare is very much the typical Bettors Delight. He is lazy and needs a lot of motivation to try. He certainly got that last time, as he was under the whip steadily and repeatedly from JD the entire way, parked the mile because he doesn't leave well and couldn't get a hole. He does pace to the wire, but he goes one speed. He won many races last year, but that was when he was a colt and he could get away with just relying on having more speed than his rivals. Hard to see a scenario where he wins this race.

Jimmy Be Good blasted out last time and could have had the pocket, but didn't want it. He has always been better if covered up much of the mile, and he was all done on the last turn, beating none of them. Yet another in this race that was claimed in good form, but raced bad the night of the claim, and has gone backwards for new connections. He also takes a drop here, but draws the 9 hole. He was a fairly solid 15 before he was jacked up and claimed. I will wait to see if he races well off the pace tonight and possibly go to him if he draws better next week.

Chosen Hombre has turned out to be an awful claim. As such, he now drops below where he was haltered, just 3 races into his stay in Fellows barn. He left horrible from the rail last time, and that is his pattern as a rule, and certainly his last 4 on the page. He was having trouble keeping up to the half, so Fillion showed him the whip and pulled the plugs early. They were going plenty, so he had a license to gap a bit. He did close that gap, and then weaved through traffic in the lane to finish with some pace, although no threat to the top 3 or 4. He is 5 for 56 the last two seasons, and at 10%, he is hard to back with suspect current form and a style that isn't suited to Woodbine anyway. He is not very sound as a rule, and post parade is somewhat important with him. 

Sierra Madre has raced well the 3 times at this level when he drew well. As such, in addition to his fast time following a kamikaze type around in a gapped field last race, he will take money. He also is locked on the right line and steppy lame the entire way. He is 1 for 26 this year, and always has been a low percentage winner with most, if not all his wins coming at the B tracks. I don't think he's ever won on this circuit. I like others better.

Waltzking Hanover was claimed 4 back for 25k, and raced bad that night. He had been through a few barns at that stage, and his form was already turning in the wrong direction. He has continued to head down the ladder and go off form as Cullen has raced him, and even though Cullen is prone to move first up with every horse, he dropped him in class and buried him last time, trying to give him a brave trip. In spite of that, he stopped in the lane and could barely pass a completely spent one for 9th last time. As such, he goes even lower tonight. He looks to be about 5 lengths off whatever will win this race on time alone. He is headed for an 8 claimer at the rate he is going. 

Machapelo has been double digits in this class in two straight starts, and last time had the rail, got away dead last, was gapping under urging and finished with mild pace. He is very hard to back based on how he has been for a couple of months. 

Race 2

Southwind Alice  had the 8 hole at Flamboro last time. Nuff said on that race. She wired them the time before that from the 5 hole at London, with a RUS race sandwiched in between. Phil drives tonight. He knows her and has won with her at this track before. She did have nice finish last time at Flamboro, and seems to have good form. Shot if she gets off the car good and can get a similar trip, but closer to the pace. I'd say the longer stretch helps her more than hurts her, as long as she is in with these types.

Alacrity was a nice colt, and made good money for Eddie Green. He bombed out last year, as often happens to Green's when they are raced the way they are at 2. Budd has had him for a while now, laid him off for the summer, and brought him back last time at Flamboro. He comes back tagged this time, and in the summer, he won in 55, then bombed out and was put on the shelf. Budd is a tricky guy, and you have to be careful leaving him off a pick 5. He can turn them on a dime. Zeron is back aboard for the WEG drive. That is a plus. I'd have to use him in the pick 5, as one of many and hope to get one of them. 

Shoot the Thrill is 4 races off the claim and now back where he started in terms of classification. He is the only one to take the high tag, so he gets the far outside start. He also has the fastest line on the page, by far.  He is not a fast leaver as a rule, so, thinking he could gun the 10 hole and get to the top or settled in the top 3 is not really probable. Can he rough it and avoid traffic trouble here? He could. He does bear in pretty bad in that last turn, so that is a further reason to suspect he wont be rolling wide there either. He does trot right to the wire, and will pick most of these up. He could just end up being too late for the win. For the short price, I will play the likelihood he gets beat and take some iffy longer shot options. Its a risk/reward play. I list him 3rd. Use him, don't use him, your call. I will probably add him if I have enough room.

Liseberg has kept it together for 3 starts and a qualifier now, leaving out sharp last time, sitting a loose but following pocket, trotting right to the wire, albeit not able to go with the top 3. She is coming along and showed she has a bit more overall speed last time. I can see her in the mix and certainly could take this, considering the buttery soft nature of this field. No Girl Drama or Warrawee Proton to face this time.

Boots N Hearts has banked 267k in her lifetime, mostly racing at the B's. As far as I recall, Team Wall has had her the entire way until Fellows got her. She didn't do much last time, but did come a back half with consecutive 28 and change quarters in her first WEG start in a few weeks. She shows leaving at Flamboro and if she could do that here from the more inside spot, and get that soft trip again, combined with the decent back half, she has a longshot chance. Can we count on Cullen not panicking and staying in, instead of pulling first up and running at the leader? Nope, we can't count on that, but we can hope.

See R Chin Win is a half sister to Ken Kan Win, and just like him, she has some speed, but also the issues that come with that family. She also comes off two bad posts at Flamboro, and is 3 weeks plus out of the box. She locks on a line and bears in horrible at Flamboro on every turn, and thus, she should be better over Woodbine. She also bagged 2nd last winter at Woodbine, but that was when there was a brief stay with Dagfin. Not the case here. Mixed variables that sometimes lead to a longer shot like this stepping up in a race like this. I'd use her in the pick 5 as a hopeful sweetener.

Townline Momma  was taken off Cirasoula last winter when she was rolling along, and immediately went bad for Trevor and Moreau. They did get a win out of her, but she went bad again and was laid off. She was trained back down and raced by Trevor's wife, dived in for 7500 with no takers or performance, and then moved to Moreau and raced for 8500 last time, with him adding the trotting hopples for that engagement. That kept her trotting. It didn't keep her from going forward and sideways with her head cranked at the same time. She picked up a few late, because they came home in 32. I'd have to think she is going to end up in Buffalo or Monticello before the New Year.

Toga Town draws bad, and has a short shelf life soundness wise, which he showed serious signs of wear and tear last time in the lane. Fillion held him together and he hitched and hiked his way home. Too many strikes against him tonight for me. He can beat me if that proves not to effect him.

Easy Virtue adds lasix for her 2nd try with these after shipping in. From the looks of it, she needs it. Her last quarters consistently leave something to be desired. Based on her overall speed and her lifetime performance, its hard to see how she is an A track contender, even with that bump. She can leave well. That gives her every chance if a few blow up and/or wipe a few out behind her in so doing. I cant count on that to happen. Pass.

C R Dynamite raced exactly to his odds last time, and he is a 9yo with 42k in lifetime earnings, with a record of 2:01 at KD, taken last year. I cant see any scenario that gets this horse on the ticket. His trainer is 0 for 33.

Race 3

Wild and Crazy Guy left well enough last time, but was unlucky enough to be following a longshot gapper with a first up hanger beside him, pinning him in until the top of the lane. When out and free he flew up late, and looked to have 2nd, but ended up dead heating that position. He is likely to bring a big price here and I think he is the value play in the race. Randy gets the best out of him of anybody, assuming he actually shows up tonight and drives him. If he doesn't, I reserve the right to change my pick and rate him a bit lower. 

Rubber Duck has been hanging around at this level as he matures into a Preferred trotter. P Mac drops him for the 2, who is the likely chalk, and so, he picks up CC, who has done well with him before and is good with trotters, and knowing when to move them to get the most out of them. I could see him getting it done at a price if he gets the right trip. Shot. 

Windsun Revenge  went a huge trip on the engine the entire way in the Breeders Crown, repelling off Resolve on the turn when he ran at him, only to just give it up late. He hung tough, and now shows back up 3 weeks later. He should be rested, but that trip--plus the travel back and forth for one who doesn't make that kind of trek--likely could take its toll. I think he brings a short price tonight, and I will list him 3rd, getting picked up by others.

Intimidate left out, and tripped out last time, then exploded on them like his old self. Is he back? Can he keep the train rolling? I'm not sold. He has consistency problems at this stage in his life, and has been not the soundest horse his entire life. These are deeper than the ones he beat. He was very much the benefit of what was going on behind him, and that is not likely to repeat itself. I will go to others. I would be inclined to use him in the pick 5 if I can short another race a bit.

Etruscan Hanover got away slowly last time, gapped out as a big favorite, then pulled first up and hung, only to come on again late and tie for 2nd. I suppose he is always possible with his talent level, but I will go to others. His driver, plus his inconsistency, make him a hard play for me most nights. 

Fearless Man shows back up on the scene, with a solid qualifier in which nothing of note was behind him relative to what he will face tonight, and thus, he is being pointed to a big winter campaign, where he makes his most money. The Preferred pays the same in the winter as it does in the summer, but it goes slower and is not usually as deep week to week. I expect him to be raced easy tonight, but his time will come this winter, likely by early December. 

Youre Majestic is very sharp right now, and she is hard to fault, but she has never faced this type of trotter and is a filly going against salty, older and classy males. She will have to show me she can step up and keep up. Lets see how she does. I pass on her chances tonight. 

Il Sogno Dream went to the rail in the BC final, stayed in, and did little. He isn't the most motivated type, but Trevor gets after him to keep going. I like others better in this spot. He will have to show me he is getting sharp, like he did last winter for a while. 

Race 4

Alexas Hope took back early last time, and had a lot of traffic to negotiate. She is habitually a slow leaver, so from the inside, it might get her a shot of gaining a couple of positions by being inside those that will take back. Last time, she was behind one that was going the wrong way, so she had to use a lot of energy to get around that one, then picked up horrible cover on another stopper who made her go 3 wide around her on the turn, and while Ryan rounded the turn to only be 2 wide for a bit, she had to come out again to make her move. All of that caused her to be a length off the top 2. She very easily could have won that race. She didn't, and thus, she will be a better price this week. I said last week I would wait to see a turnaround. I saw it. Top call tonight. 

Darktwistedfantasy  had an interesting trip last week. She left out but others were faster, so she tucked to a 3 hole. She stayed in, which turned out to be a good move, as she had 2nd over on the eventual winners back, but Drury ducked back in, as that one hung on the turn. That turned out to be the wrong move, as while she looked like she might get a seam, she didn't and the winner went forward anyway. That is racing. She is possible again this time. One of many. 

Shes a Maniac is on a 3 race roll, and she can get like that, especially in the winter when they slow down a bit and soften up. Last time, she left out hard, let the logical one go, but that one let another go and Henry lost the trip he thought he would get. So, he pulled and parked the entire last turn and right to the wire. She appeared to be hanging at that stage, but that has always been her way. She will struggle on the turn, and then straighten up and keep pacing to the wire. Her sires trait, and his sires trait to some extent. She is a player tonight, but is due to get beat. The price probably shortens up tonight. I will pick others. I'd use her in the pick 4, because she is viable enough and could bag one more.

Watt a Funny Face tackled some bearcats last time (relative to these), and they ground her into submission. Obviously, those were way too tough for her. She won off a perfect pocket trip the time before with similar to these. I don't think its any secret or you have to be an Einstien to figure out Plante is blasting and sending this mare tonight. I can see her getting run at here and I will say she effects the outcome but gets picked up by a few, if not many. She is improved, but maybe another who is a solid 8 but not as potent a 10/12. She's not impossible if somehow she gets a 2nd quarter breather.

Donna Party takes the highest tag and that gets her the 10 hole. That is not good for one who likes control and will run into at least one inside her, likely 2 or 3, who aren't going to let her have it. It makes for an interesting race, and she certainly was pretty good last time, but, its hard to back her knowing she is giving them 5 or 6 lengths at least off the gate. Only way I see her getting her picture taken tonight is a crazy speed battle she lays off and finding a live helmet to follow on the last turn. That is a lot to hope for. I wont. Pass and play others.

Lady Jen drew badly last time and had a long trip. She raced okay, but I'm of the opinion she is a much better 8 than 10 or 10/12, and I like others better here. Pass on her for me.

Fire Watch is a classic in between type. She can leave enough, but not enough to outleave the ones that really want the front. That gets her the trip she got last time. She has to find a traffic flow that carries her. Last week, she went to follow outside, that one was gapping badly, so Cullen switched back inside. She was crawling over Drury's helmet when sitting in, but like many that do that, when you show her open road, she isn't so lively. Very much a Real Artist trait, which is what her dam is. She had a clear lane to go forward the rest of the way but only paced with the pack. Another that is probably an 8, not 10 or 12, and maybe even better off at the B tracks. Pass for me.

Total Knockout takes a higher tag, so she draws outside again. I don't get that, but its not for me to judge. Its for me to rate chances. Outside post. Pass. Inside post, shot if she tries that next time.

D G Nickabocker ships back in for her breeder/trainer/owner. 8 hole last time at Flamboro. Not much shot when you get that. She won when she drew better at that track. She also has low earnings and low starts. Post 9 tonight. I will watch. Not dangerous tonight from what I see of who is inside her. 

Gia Diamond  has had a lot of chances to win at WEG, and has failed every time. She has one big brush, but she flattens out sharply when that is spent. That is the definition of the classic B track horse who looks great in with those, but cant translate to the A track. She is one of those. Her November 5th line is indicative of what you will get from her. Pass. 

Race 5

Par Intended was claimed by Johnson and comes right back for the same tag but gets a decent post 5 in spite of taking a higher tag than the ones inside of him. He is hard to knock off his form and determined last quarter speed most weeks. He is likely to be a short price tonight, in the 8-5 range, and while he is logical, he doesn't win every time. I will list him on top, and obviously, you would be rolling serious dice to leave him out of the picks. He is no cinch, but I couldn't find one to put ahead of him. Multiple pick 4 choices in this race.

Panedictine isn't very sound, but most of Bako's look like cripples parading then race well despite it. I look the other way with his when I see it from them. I wouldn't claim one, but I can certainly bet them. He has an upset chance from the rail start, if the flow and racing room gods are on his side tonight. 

Lets Wait and See skipped last week, and comes back here with a better post and a new driver. He is dangerous enough on those variables, although Phil isn't any better than Ryan in my view, and this horse gets away mid pack to near the back no matter what post he draws. He has a shot, but needs a lot of trip luck to get there first.

Lonewolf Currier  was solid off the claim for Montini last week, but got beat at 4-5 by one who he meets again. He is reasonable enough, but I can see him going down and would roll the dice again him and use a longer shot in his spot in the picks. He finds ways to get beat, and always has.

Jenkins Creek  wired them last time, but moves up here as Moase has another one for that class. I'm not sold this guy can last with a better bunch. I will play others. He led home a bunch of hangers last time. This group has a few that pace forward late, and don't hang.

Needlecrest has been double digits his last 4, and to me, seems like he is a decent cheque getter at this class but could probably win race 1 tonight if he was in that. He cant leave at all, but last time was 4th over following a 4-5 shot who went forward late and challenged for the win, while this one got left in his wake and outpaced the second rung of the pack, many of whom have dropped out of this class. Not for me until I see him move down a level.

Highland Tartan was claimed by Pereira last time, his 2nd claim in 3 outings, and he moves up here off a 2nd place finish where he was sent out hard by Roy, but hung, then ducked in and paced by some very winded ones late for 2nd money, no threat to the winner who he meets again and others who look better than both of them. Pass.

A Boy Named Suuzz takes the high tag and draws the short end of that post draw stick. I like others better. In a straight 20 from the middle of the car I would consider him viable at a price. Not tonight for me. He likes to lead, not pass.

York Seelster intermittently races great and terrible, with the common theme that he loves to cut it and wing it on the engine. He wont get that trip here, and I will wait another day on him. He will find the sweet spot at some stage. Not tonight. The way he coughed it up last time suggests he might have had some sickness and has missed 3 weeks. Trip around tonight and lets see how he finishes.


As usual, this is the type of race we see all the time where you have to look the other way on a lot of them that classic handicapping tells you to avoid them. Something has to win this race. That is the only known we have to work with here. That horse doesn't have to be much stock or have great form to do it. Start there.

True Muscle drops out of the Autumn, where she was overmatched, although she had a post that compromised her 2 back and she closed up well enough to be in the mix late. She has beaten better than many of these, but also has a tricky gait which gets her some nights. She made the Grassroots final, and of course, that has to be considered against many in here who wouldn't even make the stakes payments to race in those. I'd have to use her in the pick 4 on the chance she puts it together tonight. J Mac is a longshot machine, and that is another factor. 
Deuce Deuce Deuce has been off 6 weeks, made a late break last time, and comes back with no qualifiers but adding lasix. He is hard to like, but reasonable enough to think he can step up in a pick 4 scenario. Usable but I wouldn't play him with a win ticket. His record before the break and layoff was better than most of these and he is competitive in this class if he finishes better and stays trotting. 
Withahearttomatch loses J Mac to True Muscle, but picks up Trevor. Tomato/tomato. Can never discount anything Larry Walker trains, as he can find things and make adjustments. He used to bring in a lot of longer shots with just this type back in the day, and why cant he still do that? She is very well bred, but didn't race at 2 or 3. Last time, she left out, followed along, gapping a bit as J Mac pulled the plugs, appeared to be going all she can go in the lane but still lost positions in a 32 second last quarter. Tough call. She could just be not much stock. So are the rest of most of these. I could have said a lot of those things about the 2 horse last week. Your call. I'd probably use her while avoiding the two more "logical" ones outside of her. A spot for a spot, and higher odds. 
Ado Duharas shows 2 racelines on the page, both times he ran and took himself out of it. Last time, on the lead, Mario tapped him to go forward and he said "eff you" back and galloped. He is a non trier. He stayed well back of Fearless Man last time and trotted evenly, which he probably can always do, and likely what got him those 7 wins at the B tracks. If you ask him to work, he will decide to canter. I'm sure Mario has learned what works with him in the two trips behind him. That is a plus in his favor.

Mostinterestingman has one lifetime win, and is also dropping out of the Autumn, where he was over his head to win it but good enough to pick up shares. Dupuis lists himself. If that holds, I will pass on him. He isn't a driver and driver will matter in this race. If he changes that and picks up a pro driver, the horse parades well and is on the bit, I'd change my tone and use him in the pick 4. Sadly, the pick 4 decision has to come two races earlier, so, the driver decision is the key. He adds a pro, use him.

Secretcode Hanover is one Vanderkamp has to be careful with, as he throws in extra steps most of the way, especially that last turn, even with the added stability of the trotting hopples. As such, he cant blast out and gets hung like he did leaving last time. That catches up to him at the end, and he was passed by a low talent rat last time in a 32 second last quarter. I will go elsewhere, and go against my rule of always using Vanderkamp in every pick 4 so he doesn't beat me with his savvy.

Little Stuie  is 2 for 36 the last two years, and sporting the donut this year. He draws the 9 hole here, and that usually is death to a type that cant win races with every chance. He was flying late last time, but flying is relative to the quicksand the ones in front of him were trotting in a 32 second staggerfest. He had every chance 2 back on the engine but stopped that night too. I hate his breeding and he races right to it. Pass for me. It has to be something else here.

Im Wanted looks the part, and has ability, but is a shit for brains and will run at any point. He also has lameness issues, which were apparent on the last turn before he blew up. One of these nights he will show up sound, behave, get the right trip and blow up the tote board. His brother Cracker Jack has done that a few times too, although he is proven and this one is nothing to this stage in his almost 5yo life. Post 1 on a windy Woodbine November night, I will watch again, and hope he doesn't make me pay like the 2 horse did last week.

Shestherealthing made a great pre race appearance in the parade last week, but like a fool, I didn't play her and her huge odds, because I know she can be a basket case and also her lines were horrid by anyones measure. She was rank on the engine until covered up, but then made me pay for not taking a risk on her. This week, she is likely to take money and revert back to her bad behaving ways. She had a lot of trouble passing a leader who wanted to get beat last time. I will go to others. These types rarely double up or put two together. That is why they have the record they do. Her Mr Chin dam leads me to think she comes by her crazy honestly.

Archery comes in with 2 gate breaks his last 4 starts, and two wins in the other two. And the 10 hole tonight as he comes back to this circuit. He picks up Saftic, who I would think would have him off the gate to stay trotting, and conservative to the last turn to keep him in good form with a shot to close late and be ready for next week and a better draw. Pass for tonight. Prospect down the road if he shows me enough.


Cams Lucky Sam goes 2nd start for Carmen, after drawing the 10 hole and sent on a mission that became impossible. He self destructed, not in 5 seconds, but in about 2 minutes. He draws better here, and has both a fast record and several wins under his belt. Big shot. 

Dreamfair Mesa gets some class relief tonight, and also Randy back, who seems to get the most out of him. He is very variable in terms of how he paces and how interested he is on any given night. For the right price, and considering the nature of this field, I'd use him in the pick 4 and give him a shot to win the race outright as a bet. He has gate speed and he needs to start better. Not to lead persay, but to at least be in 2nd or 3rd over position. He cant swoop them all like he did for his last win most nights.

Late Night was a promising colt at one stage, taking on NYSS types and also some other bearcats. That was abandoned awhile ago, but now he has confidence and some wins, and also moves out of claimers and nw of conditions to tackle nw3. Is this the sweet spot for him? I'm willing to say it could be, and would use him in the pick 4. Brealey's bunch have started to heat up again. That is the plus that makes me add him.

Mach Messier cut the mile again last time, and lasted longer to a pretty decent colt. It was a more favorable night to try that, but I maintain he is better following up close than fending off challenges. That cheque makes him move up..before winning. Bit player tonight with the chance to develop into a win shot player in December if he keeps on track and learns to accept a trip at this level.

Dreamy Fella is another who gets class relief tonight and needs it. The jury is still out on him, and he might be another of Weller's that he is tinkering with before he tags him again and jams him 3 times for the purse money and the claim when they wont let him steal anymore. We have seen that Jones Shooter movie already the last couple of weeks. I will go elsewhere tonight, but I watch.

Jack Rackham has tried various styles and classes, and none have added up to a win, or even much close to it. I think Montini would be very happy if they wrote a 4yo 20 claimer in the New Year. He is probably worth more than 15 plus at this stage, but these seem beyond his reach to me.

Tango Star has 2 lifetime wins and has been sucker money many times in his life. That isn't his fault, but its indicative that he is generally overrated and has to move up here while not performing well a step below. Toss for me. 
Migrate Blue Chip gets to drop back down, but based on his last race, and last turn issues, I cannot go near him. I've never liked him anyway and he has been overbet his entire life. He is almost 5 and has 2 lifetime wins.
The Illuminator is a hanging rat. I can toss him with complete confidence that he is not dangerous in this spot, for openers.

Redonkulous No shot. Too many variables to matter. Just know he is. 

Race 8
Dragin the Wagon takes the class drop and gets the relief he needs. Those were pretty much Preferred types he tried to trot with last time, and he simply isn't one of those, although he gave it the college try. He didn't completely cave, and that is a good sign. He can leave hard and trots smooth, willingly. This is a good spot for him.

Catch the Dream took the big class drop last time, but blew up at the gate, looking like he struck himself and that was that. He comes right back and I can forgive that race and view him as viable if he brings a more reasonable price. He has some talented ones inside him though, and this wont be the cakewalk that last race would have been if he had been ready to trot the entire mile.

Cash for Gold has never been the most consistent type, and he also starts poorly then falls into tough and sometimes impossible trips. He also can trot a storm in the lane, as he is a big rangy trotter with speed, if.......they go enough in front of him and he finds the right flow. He beat these 2 back. Shot, but the price has to be right. I'd think 9-2 is about right. 
Zeus Lightning trotted a decent mile for 2nd last time at this level, well back of the winner, and generally, they were a lot softer and not nearly as deep as this bunch. He seems to just come around a few times a year, and that might be the case now. I like others, but he wouldn't shock me. 
Olympic Son moves up off a win. He hasn't been sharp for awhile. Reid is gone south, Boyd takes over, but I have to see more from him. Pass tonight. He is capable, but others look more viable.

Its Huw You Know made two mistakes in a row and is a bad behaving one. He is good when he doesn't get up to his antics. He will have to show me he is stopping that behavior. I don't see it. I gave him the benefit of the doubt for last time. Enough of that from me.

White Becomes Her drops in class, but she is ofer on the year and has trouble when there is more contention in a race like this. I don't think this is the right spot for her tonight. Pass. She drops her bottom line and gets to take a massive class drop next time to the bottom class. I expect her to be buried and take 5th at best.

Murmur Hanover went to Flamboro to steal money last time and wired them. Back here, he folds like a suitcase if pushed. These are tougher than the ones he couldn't even fend off. He is the ML choice. I wouldn't even bet him at 20-1 in with this bunch.

Ramas Last Son is a bit player type unless he goes low enough, and gets the 9 hole again. I like others and will take my chances post plus class equals wait another day.

Race 9
Never Been Told  was first time lasix last time, and wired the bottom level claimer. By many. Good enough for me. He has a big shot. The class rise only matters if the ones who race in the class above have that extra class. Most of these currently do not show it. They are borderline 8's. He beat those.  
Outlaw Gunpowder drops back in to the class he fits well. I mentioned the last couple of weeks I thought he was over his head. He is now back where his grinding style can wear down the ones he grinds. However, he might be tired chasing those that were beyond his means. That happens. I call him 2nd because of that. 
Cundalini has raced well twice at this level if you toss his 10 hole race in between those. He isn't my top choice, but he has a shot if the ones I pick don't show up or don't get the trip they need.

Er Quinn got the right trip last time, but as usual, he was wonky coming to the wire. He held together, and he can be dangerous when he gets things to go his way, like last time. I will play that they don't this time, and he gets beat.

Cobalt Man the wild card in the bunch. He has been going in the wrong direction for awhile now. Last time he had trip excuse, but no excuse to hang in the lane when the ones in front of him appeared spent, yet he could not pass any of those. He drops again, and the combo of Fillion and Moreau plus the drop will get him bet again, maybe even the favorite. I will go against him again. He has been a failure for a long time. One of those Rock N Rolls with the no try attitude you hear about. He made 400k when he was younger, but he is fading fast as a viable A track racehorse.
Vegas Rich is an interesting addition to the mix. Gibson had him his entire life, but Mike Stoikopolous has him now, and he has a history of gradually sorting out an underperformer like this. I will watch closely as he brings him here for a try at A track competition. Not tonight as a play.
Intended Style parked the entire mile last time, but to his credit, he kept at it and didn't completely cave. He draws the 10 hole here. That is enough to do him in in my book.
Gunpowder doesnt seem to have a style that can produce a win at this level. He can make the tri coming late if others cave and backpeddle. I cant see him winning as is.
Who Doesnt was claimed for 8, and to me, that is what he is. Any class rise above that takes away the shot he has. Pass.

Light Foot Rd draws outside for horrifically low percentage trainer Fuller. No shot.

Race 10
Home James was blasted last time in his 2nd try at the Autumn. So much for that. He does show signs, and Trevor can make a difference here. I will list him top call, but I have to have my price. That price is the ML, 8-1. 
Sharky Shark tried the nw2 off his lone race, a win in the maidens. He came a big back half and looks like a player in a spot with not many who are that dangerous looking.
East End was moved on the last turn last time, but looked like he wanted to run again, which is what he does. He held together, but its anyone's guess which one he will be here. I'd have to see him parade to make a guess, and it would just be a guess, as he only does it at very high speed on the turn. Use him, but he can go either way. He is no lock.
Jrs Big Buddy proved me wrong last week by leaving hard and sticking with the top pair all the way. I will eat crow on that comment. He is possible, but he has to show it wasn't a fluke.
Shadowfall missed last week and I thought that was a good spot for him. I had him listed 2nd there. These seem a bit tougher for him to handle, and being that he can be a cheater, I expect Vanderkamp to bury him and race him easy. I go to others. He is possible, but others look more viable.

Putnams Legacy won 2 races at 2, but none since in 30 tries. Hard to knock his 53 mile last time, but that was tagging along to a horse that went in 51. Does he have hidden form, or did he just go fast and will regress to competition? At the end of the day, he backed away in the lane and lost lengths. That is what they pay for. Not how fast you go, but who you beat. Minor shot, but its hard to back him unless he is bombs away, like say, 30-1.

Red John is a 2yo who beat maidens but now draws outside and faces nw2. That is a recipe that leads to a phrase called pass.

King of Sports got around clean with Phil, but loses him to the 7. Hopples back on. They were off for a reason. You only pull hopples if you think that helps a horse that needs help. I will watch. 

Century Churchill continues to be a bit player now that he has finally got the maiden monkey off his back. He now has the no mans land tag on his chest. Prove me wrong.

Winning Drive has a pedigree, form and connections that make it easy for me to toss him. His slow leaving style also is not a plus.

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