tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66858977817317398132024-03-19T04:01:52.842-07:00Thoughts On RacingMark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.comBlogger159125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-9588963967149646382023-11-09T16:38:00.006-08:002023-11-10T07:30:53.644-08:00Mohawk Thoughts and Selections, November 8, 2023<p> <b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;">Race 3</b></p><div><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: large;"><b>Even with the 10 hole, can any of these handle Goober Smack? It doesn't appear so. Can he keep it going, or does he regress a bit? That is doubtful, as he hasn't even been pushed or asked to do anything close to what it appears he can. I can only see one who has the ability to go with him and even then, that is a stretch. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">GOOBER SMACK seems well within himself, and mtb with this group. He would have to regress in a very large way to not get the job done. As with last week, if he post parades as is, which he did last time, <b>he is virtually a cinch.</b> Post 10 poses no problem as long as he avoids any traffic breakers.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">LMC MR SQUISHY is really <b>the only one who has any shot on talent to beat the chalk. </b>On his best day, he is capable of that. He behaved last time and ground down one who was on a roll. Now he meets the beast he avoided last time. I said last time, you don't know what you will get from him each week. <b>If we get the best version of him, its possibly a race. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">LOCKDOWN ROMEO is a nice enough, steady, reliable trotter. He goes what he can and isn't without a chance if the chalk blows up and his main rival reverts to his bad boy image. Otherwise, he seems short of their ability. <b>I cant back him against both of them. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">NAPOLEON HILL <b>miles over his head</b> with these if he shows up.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">SID THE KID is improving, but not enough to beat the top 2 at this stage. If he matures well, he <b>could be the best of the 3 next year.</b> That is a call for another day or year.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">DEVILS KISS was <b>going all he could last time to nab 3rd money.</b> Now he meets those and others from the other division. Pass. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">VUNDERBAR doesn't show he can be anywhere near the ticket.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">P L ROBERT G seems like he has okay, but limited ability. I prefer others who show more and deliver. Good overnight type, <b>but not stakes caliber.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">BRUTALIZER <b>seems overmatched </b>with these. pass</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ROYAL DUHARAS <b>has some upside and is improving</b>. He is the longest of longshots to win this, but not a toss like some others. <b>He has a chance at 2nd money if one of the top 2 dont perform.</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;">Race 4</b></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;"><b>PAM is the classic money burner type who eventually wins at a bigger price when absolutely every possible thing goes right. Something like a pocket trip, which she had last time, a leader who caved in completely, but not before she was out and by her, which happened last time, and a backfield wiped out by a breaker, which didn't happen last time. Horses like PAM don't win a race, others simply refuse to beat her when she tries to give up. Tonight, you get chalk PAM again. I wouldn't take those odds, just as </b><b>I</b><b> didn't last week. Look elsewhere. </b></span></div><div><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;"><span style="color: black;">PAM is well on her way to cementing her <b>professional maiden</b> status, yet, she is a solid money maker and likely will have 40k made before she transitions to the nw2 class or goes straight into a conditioned claimer. I'm not sold that they overuse her just enough in races to make sure she gets picked up. Either way, <b>she always looks viable but doesn't seal the deal.</b> I expect tonight to be more of the same. </span></span></div><div><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;"><span style="color: black;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;"><span style="color: black;">AVAS ANGEL BABY might go off as the chalk, based on her connections, her previous ability and the fact<b> this barn qualifies them twice to have them race ready off the shelf.</b> I want to see her parade, as they are also prone to racing cripples. <b>She looks like a winner coming off the page. </b></span></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">RED DIRT FLASH will have to start better and do more to be viable. I'm not saying that isn't possible down the road, but so far, she hasn't. I will watch her but I would <b>use her as a cover as she seems good enough on her best day </b>and she is race fit.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">WINDSUN COCO <b>spots them 15 plus lengths every time</b> and hasn't shown she is capable of erasing that yet.<b> Brethour is a cagey guy who brings in a lot of maiden boxcar types.</b> Beware, but she has to start better. Pam is Pam, but you don't beat her giving her a 15 length head start.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">SILENT LUCIDITY <b>needs to start better to have a shot.</b> That could be on the table here from this post. She is <b>one of many capable of stepping up</b> if the two faves revert to the mean of how they have raced before.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">DECKED OUT has a win already and ships in from Pocono where she was double digit odds every start and didn't really appear dangerous. She looks like she will be heading to a new home or conditioned claimer if she doesn't go forward in the next start or two. If her odds are lower this time, I will consider her.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">WILDCAT HERA is <b>on a better rotation now</b> and closed up nicely last time. If she <b>can pick up live cover,</b> she has a shot to take them all down. I'd think she brings <b>9-2 or slightly higher.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ACEFORTYFOUR BELLA is <b>the type that wins races like this.</b> She has sort of hung around for weeks, not racing bad, not being vigorous. She would be a <b>protection use</b> based on the questions I have on both of the probable favorites and the racing style of the other contenders.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;">Race 5</b></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;"> </span></div><div><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;"><b>Jonny Boots is very similar to Pam and what i said about her. But, he is a trotter, and sometimes it just takes time for them to put it together. As with Pam though, no way I am taking any kind of short price on Jonny Boots. He can beat me. Its a very thin bunch underneath him, but a couple have better variables than last time and if Jonny Boots is the fave, they are value underneath. The balance are impossible to stomach. </b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">QUICK FIX has the makings of a cripple, but on one day every few months, he achieves what he probably was before he went on the downhill slope. I <b>have a hard time backing something that looked as bad as he did</b> on the last turn last time, but<b> anythings possible with green trotters. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">VIMY RIDGE VENTI <b>shows nothing</b> to suggest he belongs in this race. Nuff said</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">QUEEN INDEED was done in by the 10 hole last time but <b>she can leave fast and if rated this time, and gets a breather, she turn the ship right back around. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">JONNY BOOTS picked up 3rd money last time, but again, he wasn't threatening the real contenders. <b>One day he will get it done.</b> It could be tonight, but, I prefer others who have not yet proved they<b> blow good opportunities many times over.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">THE RIGHT TIME will lose the big price this time, as she was a for sure winner last time if not used so early from the outside to gain up close position, and then moved early to take the lead, which only one of them took away. I'd think she is 3-1 or less this time, but is very viable if she parades like she looked on the track last time.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ARCHIMEDES has potential, but even though Lyle was once a top notch driver, those days are long gone. I will <b>wait until they put a catch driver on him.</b> If I was playing the multi legs though, Id use him because he is as good as any.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">BELVEDERE FRANKLIN ships in from Flm. He <b>has upside potential</b> but the things that work for him at the small tracks wont play here. Lets see how he adapts. <b>Minor shot only</b> because so many of these just don't impress me and he did win his last.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">STARLITCRESENTROLL was parked out last time but held his ground the rest of the way. <b>He is another option for a big price</b> if you don't like the short priced ones, which I don't. <b>1 for 40 the last two years doesn't inspire confidence.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">GO HAVE FUN draws the 9 hole, has the trainer driving and needs a clean line. On top of that, her form and previous efforts are horrid. <b>Complete toss for me</b> and I'd think most.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">SHAWN POPS looked horrid in the race last time. <b>He has a long way to go to get back to where he was</b> as a fresh colt. Pass and watch. </span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;">Race 7</b></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;"><br /></b></div><div><b><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;">Drivers race from my view. Trophy Taker draws the 10, and he has showed me troubling signs, but he can leave fast and carry it a fair way. I will go against him, but he can effect the outcome. </span></b></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">STONEBRIDGE THRILL has gait and immaturity issues, but he is a fast closer and <b>likely the best of this bunch going forward.</b> I'd use him but I would never single him. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">TROPHY TAKER<b> runs in bad every time, </b>even when he drives away, which he really didn't do last time. He did go a big mile to break his maiden, but mostly, it seems 53 is all he wants at this stage and that wont play here. Adding in the 10 hole means <b>he likely gives it up on the last turn if challenged,</b> assuming he makes the top. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">MAGICAL AOINE raced solid last time, but <b>was all out for 2nd</b>. I think he <b>is a few steps behind my top 3 in here</b>, and I will pass on him.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">BE RIGHT THERE<b> is the apparent value here.</b> He needs to find a way to get on Stonebridge Thrills back and ride him to mid stretch. If that happens, he has a shot to pass him late at a decent price. <b>He does run in, so losing that ground may cost him,</b> but the price should be right to take that risk. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ROCKET FREIGHT doesn't look good enough to go with most of these in the stretch, but he can get some money and<b> is capable of 3rd if a lot of things break his way. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">FLAG PARTY <b>didn't look good parading or on the front end last time</b> and he packed it in early. A reversal is not out of the question, but this isn't a soft bunch. I will pass on him.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">MAX PATRICK looks good for a chunk, but he would need a ton to go right to get 1st money. I'd <b>use him as a cover</b>, but I don't like his chances. To many viable options for him to take them all down. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">LISBON SEELSTER <b>lost some momentum in the stretch last time</b> then came on again. If there is a bombs away horse in this bunch, he could be it. <b>He needs them to battle in front of him</b>, and that isn't out of the question.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">BRUDON looked overmatched last time and draws the 8 hole here. Hard to see how he gets it done with these. <b>Another day for him.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">LIKE A GLOVE has tried various styles and none have worked at this level. <b>Post 9 makes it easy to toss him here.</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;">Race 10</b></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;"><br /></b></div><div><b style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #274e13;">Tough race. </span></b></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">STONEBRIDGE BRAVO has missed almost a month from a vet sc sick. She is a <b>habitually slow starter </b>and only moderately gains on these, enough to pick up small slices. She is the ML choice. Because her overall times are better than most of these, and she shows a 52 and change mile on the page, she is likely to take action. Her racing style and lack of wins means that <b>she will go the speed they do</b>, and that makes her a bad favorite if she goes off as such. Obviously, a horse that finishes 3rd in the Gold Superfinal should handle this bunch, but it doesn't always work that way. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">YANK MY HALO will go 2nd start on lasix and has been <b>on the fringes for weeks.</b> If you don't care for the chances of the rail horse at her very likely short odds, he is a good viable option at a reasonable price.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">HP RUN FOR DAN moved to a new trainer last time off the layoff, but showed little improvement. He is both a slow starter and mediocre at best finisher. He is hard to like in this spot, but he does have a decent win mark and if he somehow could produce that, he <b>isn't impossible with this weak bunch.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">TALISMANO is 1 for 30 the last two years and that win was at Pocono, likely in a maiden, which is where he currently fits on the class scale. Unfortunately for him, he has that win and cant race against those. <b>He will have to do a lot more</b> to beat even the weak ones he faces here.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">NORTHERN CLASSIC is a strange entry in this class as she has been just barely okay at Flm against much softer than these. She <b>doesn't show any of the speed that most of these do</b>. Its hard to like her at this point. I would think this is just a test drive to see how she goes over the big track now that she is more mature and is already making breaks at the Bs now that the competition is getting tougher.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">MAJORDANCEMOVES is <b>the wildcard in this race as he ships in</b> from Dayton and gets the trainer change. He had poor posts his last two but shows going right to the top the start before that, which he won. He will have to be seen parading, but I'd think<b> he is a major contender</b> in a race where most are spinning their wheels.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">MSFRANNIE another shipper with a new trainer, this one from the Meadows and goes to Moreau. She didn't race at 2, but lately, she has come on strong, albeit against the very weak Meadows nw1 and nw2 classes, which are rarely deep this time of year. Nevertheless, <b>she is 6 for 6 in the top 2 on the page with 3 of those wins.</b> With the move to the tougher circuit and move to the bigger track, can she take her 58 speed and go 56 or faster? That is the question. She hooks up with JMac for her Mohawk debut.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">GLENFIDICH has <b>not looked viable in 3 starts at this level,</b> and while Filion sticks with him over many others he was listed on, most of those are no shot longshot types. This guy is not a no shot type, but he is hard to like since he won the maiden race, is 2 for 27 lifetime and one of those was a win at Flm last year. Post 8 doesn't help his cause and he is already a slow starter.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">TWIN B SHOWMANCE left well last time but gradually faded out of it and Filion picked his stablemate over him even though both are big longshots at best. He doesn't seem to have the overall speed of maybe 3 or 4 others here. I would <b>think he is looking for a new home</b> in the very near future. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">SISTER ACT has been lucky to hold 5th money off two easy trips where she faded badly. Post 10 this time, she has become an <b>easy toss.</b> I don't know where she goes from here, but its not working right now with these types.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-7380800975956132352023-11-06T15:50:00.001-08:002023-11-07T05:47:10.053-08:00Mohawk Thoughts and Selections, November 6, 2023<p><br /></p><div><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: large;"><b>Race 2</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #38761d; font-size: large;"><b>Will the favorite be as good in the new barn and will anyone challenge him if he makes the lead? That is the story for this race. Not a very deep field, which means likely not many willing to sacrifice.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">WARRAWEE XALT goes off the claim and that could be an issue here. <b>He is a tricky horse, although he has come a fair ways </b>in that respect since he was a colt. He doesn't make a lot of breaks in stride now, but he is capable of that. <b>McNair sticks</b> and that is a plus. He should know him well by now. He has become very much a front end type and has won 2 of his last 3 at this level and was 2nd in the other. Hence, why he was claimed and why he will likely be staying only this start in the new barn. <b>If challenged, he can be picked off </b>in the lane, as he was last time. The question is will he be as good in the new barn and will someone go after him?</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">NORTHERN CHARLOTTE has recently moved up to this level now that her sire stake career is over. She has been a bit player, but is adapting. She draws the rail again, and <b>she generally starts slow</b> from that spot, which makes it tougher for her to be close enough to challenge for the win. Others are capable of 53, and I'm not sure she is yet.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ANCIENT WALL came to this track as a big ticket yearling, now 4yo bust. He immediately took to the <b>easy conditions, winning two in a row</b> as he blew through nw2 to this level. Since then there have been problems. He broke last time as a longshot, then was scratched sick and <b>basically has not raced an entire mile in 6 weeks.</b> He is hard to like when he needs about 2 seconds to beat these even if he is right and fit. <b>Pass for now.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">DEVILS ARCH picks up JMac and seems like he is <b>finally getting his act together on a more consistent basis</b> as he works his way up the ladder now to see how far he can go. He closed very well last time and <b>has a shot here if someone else goes after the chalk </b>and softens him up. He could be a value play. At this level, he seems to have one move and it has to be times. He cant blast out and outspeed them. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">MATCH MEIF YOU CAN a 3yo filly taking on aged horses and some mares. She is 2 for 2 since moving to Gillis and adding lasix. And dominant at that. She could easily blast and sit on the chalks back. <b>These are generally much tougher and will be a test for her.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">STORMONT DIVIDE always makes a horrible post parade appearance with his racky and ugly gait, but he goes with it most times and only makes the odd break. However, he is <b>forced to move up sharply here and needs more overall speed.</b> I haven't seen that yet. I will <b>pass and watch. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ITSTIMETOGOHOME blasted off from the 10 hole last time but gradually began to pack it in and was well up the track. To me, he <b>doesn't look to be up to the challenge of this level</b> and will be more viable when he drops some money and gets in with cheap non winner types. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">BUSTING WITH PRIDE is a <b>bit of a slow starter</b> and that contributes to his <b>winless record this year.</b> He finishes well but doesn't do enough to get by the winner, hence his 8 for 15 record on the board this year. He is the type that <b>would benefit here if someone went after the favorite</b> and made him work hard before the top of the stretch. </span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;">Race 6</b></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;"><b>If the fave comes to play, they are all racing for 2nd. She looks tough but does sit back and that means traffic and possibly breakers to avoid, as she had to last time.</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">P L RAINBOW DASH has gradually come on late in the season to be a top shelf OSS type. She was 2nd in a gold and then 3rd in the final for big money. Off that, last time, she had the trailer in a big field, yet just sat back and McClure measured them the entire way to just sail by without much effort, as she did in the first leg. <b>If she is as is, she looks like a 1-5 cinch. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">RADICAL LEGACY won 5 in a row to start her career going into her last but met the one above, who had done a lot more speed and class wise. She finished 3rd but was placed back for interference. If the chalk happens to blow up, <b>she looks like she has an edge on the balance </b>and you likely get 9-2 or maybe a bit higher. She is a 2yo filly though, so she must be seen as week to week, especially this time of year, they get sore without much warning.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">TEA LAKE is a <b>12 time maiden facing proven high end stakes fillies.</b> She will pick up Roy for the final, but I don't see her as competitive against the top 2, unless of course, they both jump it off. In that scenario, she is <b>as good as the balance,</b> but not much better, and she will bring a big price if you like the chances of that happening. I would think <b>she is hoping for 3rd or 4th money.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ABIKADABRA is the <b>type in a race like this that can pop up </b>and grab 2nd money. She trots steady, rarely makes a break and that can be valuable in a race like this. She doesn't show any ability to take both the top 2 down if they stay at it. Bit player on paper, but she has <b>a shot if things go wrong.</b> She can capitalize.<b> J Mac is good with this type.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ROYAL CANDICE l<b>ooks like an outright toss </b>in this one, as she belongs in a maiden race, in which she would be no cinch. Her double digit odds and performance in the previous two legs reflect that. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">MUSCONE <b>was wiped out down the backside last time</b> and had no shot but raced well to be 2nd in the first leg and that is an indication of where she fits on the pecking order of these. She is about 3rd to 5th best <b>if the two faves perform. If not, then she is a win candidate.</b> I would think she would like to be near the top to avoid that problem this time. So far, she has not showed any leaving ability, but that doesn't mean she cant.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ZIPPY ZIPPORAH picks up Young as JJ is away. <b>She has very good gate speed and I would expect her to deploy that here</b>. She was a bit player in the Gold but did compete and show some ability, more suited to these types. If she gets out near the top and others make mistakes, <b>she could luck into a trip that nabs first or second. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">SHETROTSALOT has 10 starts and has not made the top 2 yet. That puts her behind many of these. She is a decent leaver and Trevor might decide to take a shot and use that to pick up a big piece. <b>Big longshot but not an outright toss. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">KARENS DREAM is <b>a very easy toss</b> from the 9 hole on her form alone. She has many here who beat her even if others fail. </span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;">Race 8</b></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;"> </span></div><div><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;"><b>Will Ann behave? Can she take a tough parked out or challenged front end trip and finish it out? Is she experienced enough to rely on or does she alternate good and bad efforts at this stage? Hard to say, but she hasn't been reliable yet.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ANN has <b>very high end talent but the issues that sometimes come with that.</b> She is very green, and also a bit of a headcase. She sometimes blows the turns, and even when she doesn't, isn't always easy to rate. She might be getting better at all that with more racing.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">She seems <b>much better than all of these on talent,</b> but the 9 hole evens that out a touch. If she blasts off, she will likely have a few challenge her. I'd be <b>inclined to take a shot against her </b>if they overbet her and create value elsewhere. She wired them last time, but got a very reasonable 2nd q to achieve that. That isn't likely to be on the table here. When she has been parked or made to work for it, <b>she has given it up.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ONE MORE BET has taken down two legs in this series, easily. She was very impressive in the first leg and then just coasted unchallenged last time to the easy win. <b>However, both times she ran in horrible, almost going inside pylons although all alone.</b> That is a concern. She likely tries to trip out here and brush late on the chalk if she insists on the lead. I'm inclined to go against her but <b>use her as a cover against the chalk </b>because of the value she might bring against that rival if they hammer her.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">SCRIVENER HANOVER shows a maiden win in at Rideau and has started 9 times. She was a cheap yearling who has become a solid racehorse and done well, but <b>she looks overmatched against the top end of this bunch. </b>I cant see her doing any better than she has in the legs of this series, which is 4th money.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">DEFININGTHE MOMENT is an<b> 8 time maiden facing proven winners, </b>who she hasn't really made a dent in against in the legs of this series. She has potential going forward, but I <b>don't see her as any threat tonight. Pass and watch.</b> She will be heading back to maidens at some point, and she might be value then if she hooks a bearcat.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">WICKED LEADER has had a long season and <b>seems to have lost her edge and form</b> as she entered this series. She was taken down late as the fave in leg 1, then just went with the pack in leg 2. She <b>is capable enough if she turns that around,</b> and the McWicked's seem very variable in what you get from them week to week. She<b> has some value as a cover horse on that small chance.</b> She has a good post and can do some damage if she can <b>beat one of the faves to the 2 hole </b>and capitalize up the rail late. Trevor has been known to do that in big races on big priced horses.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">QUIET ASSURANCES has <b>stepped up her game on the move to the big track in this series.</b> If she continues to improve, she is a good longhshot play here. She closes fast late and that might be valuable in this one. She <b>could be the now horse before anybody figures that out.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">TAMARA HANOVER was 2nd best to the easy winner last time, and while she pulled pocket on the turn, she went nowhere and had to work hard to hold 2nd money. This is a deep bunch. I c<b>ant see her against the best of this bunch. Pass. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">PEELER has a maiden win to show for 13 tries. She loses Filion to one of the faves. She has a shot to make the bottom of the ticket, but <b>looks overmatched for the win. Pass.</b> She might be okay in nw2 when she goes back there.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ALWAYS A CATCH looks to be about 2 months behind some of the better ones in here and drawing bad, I would think her connections would be happy with a small chunk. <b>She is still a maiden facing a Gold Winner and others close to that level. Pass.</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;">Race 9</b></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;"><br /></b></div><div><b><span style="color: #274e13; font-size: large;">No clear favorite here, but a couple who are logical co favorites. Both beatable and there are a few that can take them down. Good race to go deep in the exotics and I'd be 4 deep with any of those 4 possible.</span></b></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">PRETTY SPECIAL is done with the Sire Stakes and now grinds her way up the ladder to see where she fits. She <b>seems pretty solid and consistent at this stage.</b> Float out midpack, find decent cover, swing wide on the last turn and then go what she can to sail by most times. Last time, she was 2nd doing that after reeling off 3 straight. <b>She is beatable but viable. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">BELLA CAVALLA returned from Yonkers last time, picked up Henry and changed tactics, leaving out hard and then securing a good trip, but she had no room to go forward. She is more likely to pick up cover and leave mid pack this time, which is a trip she knows well and does well with. She can drift late, but she goes forward doing it. <b>Big shot.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">CRYSTAL BALLER jumped it off last time while near the back of the pack. Other than that, he has been on the fringes with these for a few starts, and actually <b>draws a lot better than he has in his last 6</b>. For that reason, and since the faves are okay but no bearcats, he has a decent shot. Trevor sticks with Bella, so McClure takes over and that is not an issue. If he can stay trotting and beat a few away, <b>he has a shot to trip out at a fair price.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">BELVEDERE BRONX had been leaving in most starts and fading late, so he was taken back last time and raced okay. Still needs to do more, but with a better post here, in a drivers race, if he can <b>leave fast and sit most of the rest of the way, </b>at the mercy of trip luck, he has an<b> upset shot to take them all down</b> at a decent price.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">KEVIN ANTHONY didn't have Phil last time and that was an issue as he knows him well and has driven him in most of his starts. He ran and was well out of it the rest of the way. Otherwise, he takes a tag here to face these, but they aren't any easier than the ones he has been facing and I would think playing him will wait until he drops some money and moves down the ladder. <b>These look beyond his reach.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">FRENCHY HANOVER looks like a<b> good long term prospect</b> as she ages, but for now, she <b>is in very tough with this bunch </b>when she is a good nw2 type, but not dominant yet there either. She has won her way out of that class but is caught in between that class and this one when many of these have multiple wins and come in on the claiming tag angle. <b>Cant see her here.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">LOOKSLIKAGOODFELLA has shown <b>flashes of high ability</b> at times, but as he races on and ages, he needs to do more. To date, he hasn't. He might do well with a change of scenery, but for now, and tonight,<b> he doesn't figure with these.</b> He will need to toughen up to compete at this level, and that was a knock on his sire at times as well. <b>Pass.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ZIP ME UP is <b>2 for 36 on his career,</b> and one of those wins was a two, the other this year at Georgian. He seems like a solid 56 trotter, and while that's fine, <b>that wont play with these.</b> He did well in the pop up series to get three 2nd place finishes, but he was a big longshot in all of those and this is a major step up for him along with the far outside post of this group. <b>Not tonight for me.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;">Race 10</b></div><div><b style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: x-large;"><br /></b></div><div><b style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #274e13;">Tough race. A few who have high upside who dont always perform. Odds will determine value and post parade is key.</span></b></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">AMIGO VOLO has made more than 2 million in his career, has duked it out with the best, and still shows up every week. He has been right there in his last 4, but met the buzzsaw that is Logan Park, and then was 2nd best to a couple with stakes wins on their cards. He is the likely lukewarm fave here, and possibly he could bring 5-2. His<b> consistency and class play well here</b> without the usual top suspects in the field.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">PEMBERTON on <b>his best day might be the best of this bunch</b>. He has had serious injury issues over his entire career, and they just flare up from time to time. When he can overcome them, he is very tough to fend off in the stretch, and that was the case last time as he mowed them all down. I suspect he is the chalk here, and I will go against him because of how <b>rarely puts 2 in a row together anymore</b> in the high end class like this</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">ONEY HALL seems to be <b>rounding into form,</b> and he <b>performs better in the winter months</b> for some reason. When he is good, he is tough to handle. He is showing signs of that lately. He <b>appears to be the value here. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">FLEURIE is razor sharp now since she moved to Moreau, and <b>will be tested against these,</b> who are a much different proposition than what she has faced and beat her last two. She has longshot upside if that plays out, but I wouldn't take less than 5-1 on her and really she should bring more than that. McNair picks against her, and that is significant. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">TRUFFLES TOO frequently wins his way out of the lower condition to this and then <b>struggles mightily with these.</b> That was the case last time. He is capable of picking up a piece if one runs, another gets a bad trip, things like that. He<b> doesn't look viable for the win slot.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">WHITE TIGER very similar to Truffles Too, but White Tiger is a shade more capable of making the ticket, while a<b> very rare threat for the win at this level</b> with serious Grand Circuit types in it. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">WARRAWEE XENIA races at the very highest level there is, yet strangely, she <b>has not won a race this year,</b> even when she has faced softer than these. She is tricky to keep trotting and has soundness issues, but McClure knows her and babies her to some extent.<b> On her best day, when fit, healthy and sound, she could blow by all of these.</b> She is the type you have to cover with because she <b>can beat you on any given day.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">PATRIARCH HANOVER earns almost 200k a year, but at this level, when the good ones are still around, he has trouble sealing the deal. I <b>don't see him doing much with the best of these. </b>Perhaps when this class gets thinner.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-15579808239229448682023-11-02T15:54:00.000-07:002023-11-02T15:54:08.218-07:00Mohawk Thoughts and Selections, November 2, 2023<span style="font-size: large;">Race 1 </span><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"> <b><i>Goober Smack</i></b> </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><blockquote>He should continue to step forward in his third lifetime try
and can lay the smackdown on his rivals again tonight at what figures to be a
price of the shortest variety. </blockquote></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">That is what Reid states in the journal. That is,
of course, the logical position to take. He is fast. Faster than most of these. He
is doing it easily, so the theory is that he has much more in the tank. He has
more experience now, so he is more likely to be put on top, maybe a backstretch
breeze to the top. That is the theory. But he is still an unknown quantity. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">To me,
he has the makings of a Gold colt next year, and since he is a homebred, a cheap bred at that, they were either in no hurry to get him there, or he needed time. His sire seemed to need a bit of time to get to the high level he did. Ive seen others in the family not race at all until they are aged horses. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">That doesnt mean there wont be bumps and stages along the way. If as is, how he was first out and then last week, he steamrolls these in probably 56 if the weather and track accommodate. Will he be as is? Thats hard to say. No matter how you baby them, and make no mistake, he was babied along in his first start, which he could have easily won if that was the motivation, its still racing at race speed and none of them are used to that until they experience it. With a colt like this, post parade and score down are key. They will start to show it by doing little things, like cocking their head, or being ever so slightly steppy or sore behind. If not, and the likelihood most dont want to take him on, he makes front or pocket, gets easy fractions, and breezes home well and easily clear. However, the jury is still out until he is challenged or headed and he has to fight back.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">Its always good to remember that the theory that they get better as they race more is a fallacy. Some do, but some regress with the stress and pounding of racing. They might even need a few starts to adapt to that before they come back to themselves again. <b><i>Busy Making Moni</i></b> is one that experienced that and was showing signs even while he was winning early that he was feeling the pinch. The other night, he seemed to finally be over the hump where experience and maturity meets soundness and adaptation.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">Other than Goober Smack, there are two others who will bring a price relative to the chalk.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="font-style: italic;">P L ROBERT G </b>has gradually taken his time down, hit the ticket in his last 4, and been near the win photo most times. If the chalk were to falter, he is next in line on paper to be the one. Id say 7-2 is fair value, and you might even get 4-1 if they go overboard on Goober Smack. He has tried it on top, and then first over, but his best chance lies with making an early lead, letting the chalk brush by easily, and popping the pocket early stretch to see if he can wear him down. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>DEVILS KISS</i></b> has had a long season chasing grassroots types and is now a 12 time maiden as a 2yo. If he makes the final he will be 14 starts into his first season and have raced many months from early summer to almost December. Since he doesn't appear to be a grassroots type, I guess get as much money now as you can. He came on late last time to be in the win photo, in what would be considered the softer division, sans Goober Smack. He shows 3 breaks in stride in 8 lines on the page, so he needs some handling. That said, he is competitive with these and fast enough to win if 57 is good enough. Minor shot and I'd want at least 8-1 to try him.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">Race 2</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>TROPHY TAKER</i></b> is very similar to Goober Smack, except he is already farther along the curve. He is a late starter to the season, missed all the Sire Stakes, and now 4 starts in. He was taken back and brushed late in his debut, similar to the one above. Then, hammered in the wagering, he was sent down the road in 51.4 to score easily and impressively. Off that start, he wasnt quite as good and met a colt who was good enough to make him pay in the stretch. Which he did. He sailed by this guy easily and Trophy Taker was clearly 2nd best. Working for the lead and having to pace on when challenged exposed him just a shade. Moving up to face winners also played into that situation. Last time, similar race, similar result. He went to the top as the heavy chalk but was mowed down in the lane by another who had showed flashes of talent. I would think he might be looking for an inside trip and some cover this time. There are more than a few capable but spotty ones who could step up here. I would take a shot against him this time if he is 1-2 or less. He hasnt regressed, but seems to have stalled at about this speed. One of many to me. The favorite, but a suspect one.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>LYONS GERRARD</i></b> has 3 starts and has not hit the ticket. He hasn't even really been dangerous and goes 2nd start Moreau but loses JMac. He did suffer interference last time, so he gets a slight pass on that. He will have to show more, but he <b>isnt a toss </b>at this stage. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>HONOLULU VACATION</i></b> shipped in from Flamboro last time for his 2nd life start after not showing much in the first one and went off 86-1. He didn't do much but go around with the pack, but did take his time down enough to suggest that he at least <b>belongs on the fringes</b>. He is worth watching and isn't impossible to make the bottom of the ticket in only his 3rd life start.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>BETTIN AGAIN</i></b> has won 2 races at the B tracks, the 2nd for new connections as Team Blais cut bait on him early. He has showed early speed at the Bs, but was taken back off the pace last time, and since he had post 1, I can give him a pass on that. Otherwise, he held his ground while gaining none. He <b>is two to three seconds off the contenders </b>at this point. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>MAGICAL AOINE</i></b> broke his maiden before exiting the Beaton barn by going to the top, walking the 2nd q and then accelerating from there. He didnt gain control last time and got burned first over in a middle half in 55 and change. He didnt cave in though and JMac sticks with him. <b>He has rebound potential.</b> Overall, he needs another second or two to get all the money. <b>Debatable</b> if he is at that stage yet.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>ROCKET FREIGHT</i></b> is a <b>maiden facing some strong winners </b>here. He picked up a nice cheque in his sires exclusive race when there was one legit one and a lot of other lesser ones. He did suffer interference last time, but he has to show a lot more than he has in all the other races. <b>Pass for now.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>SOUTHWIND CIRCUIT</i></b> beat maidens last time while being off a month, and then was scratched sick last week. He shows 2 52 and change miles in with grassroots types.<b> He has a chance,</b> but likely his price is shorter than the other ones who also do.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>MAX PATRICK</i></b> shipped in from Flm last time, left well and finished well to pick up 2nd money. He draws poorly and loses JJ to the chalk. <b>He could be value if </b>he can get the pocket trip behind that one. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>GEISHAS TREASURE</i></b> draws the 9 hole and is 0 for 13 so far. <b>He is hard to like</b> based on that and his mediocre form.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;">Race 3</span></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>LOCKDOWN ROMEO</i></b> has found a good groove since moving from Bax stable to John Holding and moving away from Sire stakes types. Now with two in a row, the <b>last barely hanging in on the front end</b> while under pressure from both sides. His leaving ability is a big plus with these and his form is good, but I will <b>take a shot against him</b> as he appears all out in winning and others can step up. Or at least one of the many in here with talent but issues.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>SID THE KID</i></b> was well back of the gate and off stride last time and was refunded. That is <b>two early breaks in his last 3</b>. In between those, he trotted a solid mile in 57 that would beat most of these. <b>Have to see him</b> post parade and score down. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>NAPOLEON HILL</i></b> left out well last time but then blew up right after the quarter while another bad actor beside him did the same thing. He got back down trotting quickly but then gradually backed out of it. That they <b>bring him right back when he fits a very soft maiden at Rideau</b> leads me to think they know why he did what he did last time. He will get a different driver this time. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>DR G</i></b> missed last week sick and <b>shows nothing before</b> that to suggest he contends. <b>Pass.</b> I have to see him at least compete to back him.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>WHEELZABLAZIN</i></b> shows several breaks but he also can leave and carry that speed if he gets a breather. That could put him on the back of Lockdown Romeo and a sweet trip. Another <b>I want to see parade and score down before I rate his chance.</b> He is <b>capable enough</b> if he behaves and comes to play.</span></div><div> </div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>BRUTALIZER</i></b> was first time lasix last time, and went to the top, before being swallowed up by a bearcat in the making and another one who had Gold experience. He held for 3rd, and <b>Fillion sticks with him. </b>He draws well and has competed and even won a Grassroots. He is <b>showing signs of peaking</b> at a good time.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>LMC MR SQUISHY</i></b> hung out with gold types most of the year and held his own, but his only wins were a soft bunch at Hanover and a straight maiden at Mohawk. He left well last time, but began to act up and jumped it off. He <b>was a bad actor in the post parade</b> as well and is clearly <b>not mature mentally yet</b>. He did get back at it fast and finished a clear 2nd. At this point, you <b>dont know what you will get from him. </b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;">Race 4</span></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>CACTUSTOTHECLOUDS</i></b> has become a <b>very consistent type</b> and you know basically what you will get from him. He can trot 55 and change to 56, leave well, needs some type of breather or rest in the mile, and has one brush. Drivers can read the program too and drive him accordingly. Tonight's driver and trainer combo has had him for 4 starts now and he has been 1st or 2nd each time. He is<b> hard to go against </b>and the price will be reasonable with the one below taking money on his shown ability. From this post, his ability to blast out and get a close up trip makes him a <b>decent play if you can get 2-1</b>.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">LAST PAGE FIRST, a filly taking on several colts, she <b>shows a lot of breaks on the page and comes off a qualifier.</b> She shows winning in 54 and that would be good enough if she can produce that. She will <b>have to be seen.</b> Im inclined to play against her. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">SISTER ACT beat maidens by gaining control and going a finable slow 2nd quarter, then barely holding on. She always looks good on the track and willing, but <b>in the race, she just doesnt produce.</b> A big ticket yearling, she has been a bust and is likely racing out the early winter then going to the breeding shed. I <b>cant back her</b> for the win.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">P L QUINELLA made the grassroots final and raced well but came home with no money. In <b>3 starts since, he has had 2 bad posts </b>and raced well in the other getting 3rd money. He picks up McClure and he is good with these types. If the faves dont deliver, he is a <b>decent price play at 5-1 or higher.</b> He is a very <b>slow starter</b> and that poses the issue. Perhaps he can get out a bit better this time.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">WOMAN OF PASSION is a 2yo filly facing older fillies and many geldings or horses. That isnt a recipe for success in a spot like this when she isnt a bearcat herself. I <b>cant possibly see what the plan would be</b> at this stage of the season. This is a <b>terrible spot for her</b> and my opinion is that she should be eating grass in the field.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">IRISH DREAMER ships in from the Bs off two wins but will <b>need vastly more overall speed </b>than you see on the page. I will pass this time. <b>He has to step up</b> and meet winners at this track.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">GLENFIDICH won 3 back in a maiden from the 10 hole in 54 and change. An impressive mile. Since then, against these types, he has been MIA. He will likely pop once in the winter, but I <b>dont see this as that spot. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">SHAWN POPS was rushed at 2 and after he bombed out in the Wellwood, he was off for 2 years. <b>Lets see if he can keep up here</b> now that he is racing steady. Winning at 2 means he doesnt get in with maidens, which looks like a more viable play for him. Maybe they will let him in once this winter.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">JAYPORT ANNA MAY broke her maiden in the pop up series and then doubled up, but wasnt as dangerous in the final. She <b>draws terrible here</b> and Id think the goal is to take back, brush late for a small piece and see how she fits if and when she draws better at this level. <b>Not tonight for me.</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: xx-large;">Race 5</span></div><div><span style="font-size: xx-large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>PAM</i></b> has <b>had a lot of chances </b>to get to the wire first but just cant seem to do so. She never races bad, but she is very hard to back when she goes off short like she will tonight. I'd look for something in the mid body of this field to take her down. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>AMERICAN STARLIGHT</i></b> is a 12 time maiden who has not even gotten 2nd. She is also <b>slow starting as a rule</b>. That would put her at a big disadvantage to Pam if that is the case here. She was able to blast out at Yonkers once and finished well too, but then was on the <b>shelf for a couple of months, which is suspicious</b>. She has enough ability and has faced better than many of these. I will <b>have to see her parade.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>SILENT LUCIDITY</i></b> raced poorly last time in the slop at short odds, raced much better the previous start from the 10 hole and raced very well off the shelf 3 back to be a solid 2nd in 53. I can give her a pass on the last 2 and think <b>she has the ability to produce what she has before, if the price is right. </b>Two to one is not that price. I <b>need at least 9-2 to use her. But she is usable.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>RED DIRT FLASH </i></b>is a B track shipper with 2 life wins already, one of those in 57 at Charlottetown. She was a big ticket yearling for the Maritimes, but that has not panned out and now has shipped West looking to make some money before her conditions run out. She made her first start for new connections last time and did little at Flm, yet ships here. <b>She has upset potential. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>WILDCAT HERA</i></b> is 2nd off a long layoff late into her 3yo season. She just seemed to go around last time and get fitter, but <b>did go 55</b> and change on a sloppy track. <b>She has speed and potential.</b> I wouldn't toss her in this spot with questions surrounding anything that looks like a contender in this field. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>HOT COE COE</i></b> a 2yo, 2nd time starter, who is trotting bred and that breeding indicates soundness issues. Nevertheless, she paces and was well out of it <b>last time but went respectable time</b>. She will have to be seen but <b>Id pass on the win this time. </b>Not impossible she steps up and nabs 3rd though if she is closer and goes forward.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>POP THE BUBBLY</i></b> a 4yo, learned the ropes this summer at KD, but didn't beat straight maidens and is <b>0 for 18 on the year.</b> She tried her luck here last time, laid out of it and brushed nicely for 3rd money in decent time for what these normally go. <b>JMac chose the 5 horse here over her.</b> That is enough for me to wait another day to see how she responds to going a big mile last time, the first time in ages if ever she has done that.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">WINDSUN COCO draws bad, starts very slowly and has shown very little speed to this point as a late starting 2yo. She has finished well at the Bs, but that was against ones that will likely never see this track. <b>They jury is out. I will watch once. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">JILLIAN JIGGS a very late starting 3yo for the Cullen's, who bred her and others from that mare. She has <b>scored easily twice in the last month at the Bs and now ships here before her earnings exclude her</b> from taking this class. She <b>draws badly</b> though and I cant see them blasting off with her. So, <b>lets see how she stacks up</b> and if she can be competitive with A league horses. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">IM A KAREN another late starting 3yo, a homebred, who has done well <b>picking up decent slices but not winning at the Bs.</b> She ships here, but draws the 10 hole and is likely looking to take her time down and wait for another day to compete for the win. She<b> looks like a good winter prospect. </b>Megens elects to <b>switch to a catch driver here.</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: xx-large;">Race 6</span></div><div><span style="font-size: xx-large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>STONEBRIDGE THRILL</i></b> has not seen a straight maiden or overnight in his 6 race career. He jumped right into the grassroots and lived there until the final. He held his own until that final, but as of today, he still does not start well and <b>digs holes that are hard to win from, </b>as was the case that day when he found a slower half and paced his own final half in 53.2. He picked up a slice then. Last time, back in the Harvest, his odds dropped sharply but he started slow again and dug a hole too deep to climb out of. He was almost a month off then, but, <b>back faster this time, he needs to get involved earlier to take them all down. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>FLAG PARTY</i></b> has been a <b>fairly consistent colt this year</b> but he finally put it together last time as he left much better and that gave him the jump on the heavy chalk who he meets again here. He paces consistently around 53, sometimes a bit faster, sometimes a shade slower, and his main rival have seen 51 but digs holes and cant overcome them. With the 8 hole this time,<b> he might not be as forwardly placed </b>but he can be as he showed in August when he blasted off from the 9 hole and held his ground the entire way. <b>He could be value</b> if they go overboard on the one above.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>WICKED PRINCE</i></b> stung the favorite last time, then stalked him and blew by him late to score the big upset. He <b>meets much more accomplished and tougher foes here. </b>He isn't impossible, but he <b>will vastly have to step up his game here to take the top 2 down.</b> With the win last week, he is probably already in the final and <b>no reason to gut him here.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>BE RIGHT THERE</i></b> is an 11 time maiden for Jmac and Macintosh, but <b>he has had 4 poor posts in a row</b> and draws better today. He has shown he is good enough to go with these, but a step below late. That doesnt mean he cant step up this time and <b>is good longshot value if he goes off that way this time.</b> Id think 20-1 or more is about right.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>BROOKLYN STRONG</i></b> is in very deep with this group this time and Id think he is <b>hunting for a small slice </b>if he can get it.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>LIKE A GLOVE</i></b> was put on top last time by Filion, who sticks with him, and he faded away in the lane. I <b>expect a different set of tactics this time</b> and a run at 3rd or 4th to get in the final.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>LISBON SEELSTER</i></b> looks to be <b>way over his head on the win front</b> and loses Filion to Like A Glove. I cant see him hitting the ticket. He is much <b>more viable in a maiden race.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>BRUDON</i></b> made the lead after being parked out last time to break his maiden in this series. However, he<b> doesnt look as good as a few who have gone much bigger miles </b>and loses Roy to one of those. He <b>doesnt figure in this spot. </b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: xx-large;">Race 7</span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Anybodies race. Faves look logical enough, but they dont win.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-51703713780880636672022-03-25T15:02:00.003-07:002022-03-25T19:54:33.102-07:00Mohawk Thoughts and Selections, March 25, 20221 -- TROT, HORSES WHO HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $12,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF LAST 3 STARTS.
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2 FIT BITT shipped on from Rideau last time, sat the pocket to the classy dropping winner, and almost took him down. Another start like that, and possibly following the 9 horse all the way around looks like a winning recipe for a decent price, say 4-1. I will go with him.
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9 ARRAKIS is entered right back after finding a tougher group on Monday night. He blasted off that night, took a seat to the eventual winner, but couldnt go with the contenders when the pace picked up in the lane. He only beat the two breakers, but he did what he could. This is a much better spot, but the post will sting him early if he wants the front again, which he likely does. Contender, but he will need a breather to close the deal.
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4 EXEMPLAR raced Monday, and while he is way past his glory days, he still tries hard, and has some ability left. This is a good post for him, and if one of the likely leavers were to jump it off and he could secure an easy pocket trip, he is still capable of beating this weak bunch. Trevor Henry seems to get a bit more out of these old campaigners than other guys, so that is something to hang on to if he gets the right trip.
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6 GOALTENDER will make a lateral move here after nabbing 3rd last time. Even though he was the fave that night, he was taken way off the pace, then moved into a completely non advancing flow, but when moved wide, he was even at best and barely got 3rd money. The 2nd place finisher who just missed taking down the winner of that race is back with him, and looks better overall.
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3 VEYRON ships back from Flamboro where he wired them last time. He is capable enough with these types if he can get out near the top early and let another go, follow and then pounce if the contenders fail. Minor shot.
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5 LOS BALLYKEELAMIGO adds lasix and picks up J Mac on his move back to the big track, after stopping badly at London last time. He is capable enough but his current form is a bit weak. I will go with others
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7 ODDS ON AMETHYST on his best day would blitz these. His best days are far behind him and he shows little currently to suggest he is going to step up.
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1 SONOFAMILLIONAIRE still has not shown enough in his 5 starts this year to suggest he can compete for the win.
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8 DART GUY is completely non competitive at this stage and draws outside. Toss.
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2 -- PACE, FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES
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7 FROMAKINGTOAQUEEN was 2nd over last time, and closed well, but not enough to get on the ticket. She has had a few at this level already, retains Henry, and has won the class once. She has consistent good late speed and will be my top choice for a price. Id hope for 4-1 or slightly higher.
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8 WILDCAT STAR started slow last time, moved up the inside when others moved into the outer flow, but then found a wall and had nowhere to go late, although she was very live. Post 8 means she will need racing luck here, but if she gets it, she is another who can score at a fair price.
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4 NOTHINGCOMPARESTOU gets to drop to nw3 as she goes in for the tag. She faded badly last time, but her mother was known to do that and then come right back and race tough. She has good early speedand that can play in a race like this. I like her upset potential here. She paced a back half in 54.3 two back and picks up Sorrie here. That should play with this bunch is she brings something more like that.
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6 BABY BONITA qualified well for Budd off a short break, but she has yet to show in her two starts that her Hawthorne form plays on this circuit. I would think she is aiming for the Grassroots program down the line, and this is a nice beginner start. She is possible, as Budd can never be underestimated, but others look sharper and more proven at this track.
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5 SHARK HANOVER made the jump up from fts winner at nw1 to nw3 last time, went off the heavy chalk, got away 3rd, gapped down the backside to two big longshots, one she never passed, and then pulled first up but hung in the lane, barely holding 3rd. She is another who would benefit from going into a straight nw2, but she has to fight with the nw3 types here again. Pass this time for me.
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2 COME ROLL WITH ME beat nw2 when she walked to the 3/4 and then just accelated away. The going is much tougher at this level and while she is probably good for a small cheque, I cant use her in with some of these.
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3 THE IDEAL HUNTRESS wired nw1 off the shelf by coming a very fast back half as the chalk. She is a 3yo facing some older mares, and also has had to jump from nw1 to nw3, when she would look pretty good in with nw2. Pass for now unless she shows some huge leap in talent that suggests she can skip a level and still win.
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1 DILLY TARYN has found the going tough as the competition is now deeper and faster. She is one start away from being able to drop to the bottom nw condition. I will wait for that, as she would look very good in with that bunch.
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3 -- PACE, CLAIMING $17,500 FOR NW $75,000 LIFETIME.
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4 PICTONIAN THUNDER raced Monday in nw2, but didnt do enough and now he dives to a cdn claimer. He also picks up J Mac and this is the kind Carm excels with. I will call him for the win as a decent price play.
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3 SKYLAR dropped back into this condition last time, left out sharp, held the pocket, but then was locked in and didnt get any clearance until it was far too late. If he comes back and races like that, with any more racing luck, he should be right there with these. Big shot.
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6 TAHUYA BREW has come along well since Barrington claimed him, only losing last time to a sharp horse who knows how to win, and winning 3 back. He has taken his overall time down a bit and got out a bit closer last time. He is a legit contender here, but he is no cinch either. He is a bit trip dependent.
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1 FINKLE IS EINHORN seems to be in the hunt and will get it done one of these weeks. Decent shot.
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2 DAVID LLOYD GEORGE is finding it tough to win lately, so I see him as a small cheque getter until he steps up and shows more in the lane.
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5 DARK MOVES is 1 for 21 the last two years, with his only lifetime win a slow one at Clinton. He has had many chances lately here, and always looks good out there, but doesnt get there. I like others much better.
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7 BLUE MONK blew up the tote board two back, then was well back and distanced, on the vet list last time. He qualified back okay, but didnt do much to do that either. This is a competitive field, so I will go to others. He is hard to like on his wild inconsistency.
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4 -- PACE, FILLIES & MARES, NW $15,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $28,000 LAST 10 STARTS
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6 KICKUPYAHEELS N is the classic Carm type who seems to be not finishing well for weeks, and suddenly she wakes up and steps up with the price rises. I will bank on that here and call her for the upset, despite the fact she has burned me a few times lately. She is willing enough and was good enough to take serious money in the Preferred a few back.
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7 SHES NUN BETTOR N is as solid as they come and paced a back half in 53.4 last time just missing. Another with a decent chance and to use in the mre.
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2 TUGGINGONCREDIT beat most of the contenders in here last time and she has been generally good for a while now. She can keep trying them with the claiming tag option, and might even get claimed here off her good form and money making ability. This is a trip race and she will need another one to beat them all. I say her luck runs out and someone else wins it, but Id still use her in the mre.
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1 ADASHIOUS HANOVER has good early speed, and J Mac is likely to leave out, try a retake early down the backside and try to get her home. Using her early in the mile seems to leave her a shade empty deep in the lane. He buried her last time to try and negate that, but she had nowhere to go. She is the type that falls into those traps because she likes to lead, but needs a breather. I prefer others, but she isnt impossible if it all works out this time.
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3 MAJESTIC VIRGIN dropped and popped last time, but these are tougher and she would need some luck and others to fail. Obviously, she is capable enough when she is very good, but I like others better. If you are willing to go 5 deep, she can be the 5th one in my view.
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4 GOOD NIGHT MOON blasted home in 25.4 last time, and that got her 5th money. She relies on sitting back and coming late, which means she needs a live flow to tow her there, then go flat when she tries to pass them. I like others in here better but she is not out of it if things go her way.
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8 BORN A DRAGON dropped last time, got to the top and got a slow half, then finished the job. She draws post 8 here, and moves up, into a very tough group. Pass.
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5 AWESOME HILL adds lasix and exits the winter series action, getting thrown into the deep end with the salty, aged pacing mares who know how to win and go tough trips. I think she is currently overmatched by these until she proves otherwise.
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5 -- PACE, FILLIES & MARES, NW $3,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $8,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
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5 CHIEFS DREAM GIRL drops in class with a license to take them all down. The names of all the winners in her last 6 starts would crush this bunch at 1-5. A repeat of her last mile would be good enough if she can do that.
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6 PATRICIA MAE is a good leaver, drops slightly in class, and draws a much more favorable post. She is a contender off all that and McNair can get her out again where she doesnt have to go around others, which is what usually gets this kind beat in this class. Shot.
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3 KAYS DELIGHT just missed last time and she gets in slightly easier this time. However, she is a very low percentage winner and is one of many. J Mac sticks here, so that is a positive. Shot.
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4 CUSTARD LITE takes the big class drop here and on that alone is a contender. Types like her earn their money in this class and pay the training bill when they have to go above their heads like she has been for a few starts. I expect her to be in send mode and go as far as she can.
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8 SUNNY SICILY seems to be a come late and get a piece type, as her win record the last two seasons suggests. More of the same here. She can get 4th money if things go right for her.
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10 KAT draws the 10 hole here and is 2 for 40 the last two seasons. Thats enough for me to discount her.
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1 HAPPY LOOKER takes a class drop here, but she seems to hang in the lane, and that is an issue that gets ones like this beat when three of them hit the wire together. Pass for now.
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2 GOODNIGHT IRENE takes the class drop, but she rarely wins, which is how she gets in this class...on the nw last 10 starts option. That tells you her effort level most nights.
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9 DARKRSHADEOFPALE N had a good season last year, but her form has fallen off a cliff this year, and now she changes barns, but draws the 9 hole. Lets see if she can be woken up for another try next week from a more favorable starting spot.
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7 TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY is 2 for 38 the last two years, and gave it up on the lead last time. She does best with Trevor Henry in the past, and he takes the reins here. Still, even though this is the class where she excels, she has significant company on that train here to her inside. I like others this week.
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6 -- PACE, FILLIES & MARES, NW $9,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $22,600 LAST 10 STARTS.
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5 BLACK BETTY looks like the type of mare Carm finds every now and then. Just coming into their own at 4 or 5, maturing and getting better, then he gradually builds them up and they become Preferred mares. She won right off the claim for him, rising in class and beating some nice mares, some who could beat many of these. J Mac sticks and she is the logical one to play if you are not sold on the 2 horse, which Im not.
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2 SNOW SHARK dropped to this class last time, but post 10 meant she had to gun out for the lead, held that all the way but weakened late. With a better post here, she is obviously more viable, but no cinch. Others have good form as well. One of a few to use.
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7 LADY ROCKNROLLA A has been flat in the lane lately, and overall as well, but she can pop off anytime and be dangerous with this type. Id use her in mre on that chance. She has good early speed and that can get her Snow Sharks pocket. If she can do that, she would be dangerous with a brave trip.
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3 SUNDAY AFTERNOON jumped it off early last time in the Preferred, which she had no shot anyway. She drops back down to the class she was competitive in before that, but she wasnt winning it either. She is possible, but she tends to find ways to lose races like this.
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6 MY MOTHER PEARL moves up in class where she has been on the edges of the winner. I like others, although if you are going 5 deep, she is the next one Id take.
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4 SPORTY TORI rises up to this class without winning, and she has been a low percentage winner for a while now anyway. This is a mixed bunch, she is not without some chance, but others look better unless she flukes off the perfect trip and finds a seam late.
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9 TWIN B TIPSTER drew well last time but didnt do enough to hit the ticket, and now she draws poorly again. I cant see her beating the top 3 contenders here.
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1 BEST HONEY HANOVER has been away very slowly in two tries since being claimed and made close with the pack type of recoveries, which werent good enough for a cheque either time. She has to rise in class here, and thats enough for me to shop elsewhere looking for contenders.
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8 MAJOR LEAGUE N won at the bottom, but she doesnt appear good enough to go with this type anymore, especially when she is the type that insists on leading and going too fast early. One to wait on when some money drops off and she can find softer types with a better post.
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7 -- PACE, CLAIMING HANDICAP $22,000 TO $30,000.
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4 ROYAL RENEGADE doesnt win often lately, and not in 11 starts this year, but he takes a slightly lower tag this time, and that gets him the 4 hole. With his sharp leaving ability, that makes him a sneaky good chance to get a soft trip to the lane. These types, a different one seems to pop up for a couple of weeks and become the better one. Maybe its his turn.
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3 LAST MACH was claimed by Carm last time and now adds lasix. Lets see what he can do. He will need 2 seconds or more improvement to beat all of these.
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5 BELIEVE IN BRIAN was claimed 2 back by Fellows, moved up to this level and was a close 3rd at the wire. He seems to need a soft, inside trip to beat this kind. That is hard to rely on, but not impossible with all the action we normally see when these types battle it out week to week.
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1 MAYHEM LIKE ME won off the claim for Puddy, a reclaim right back, but to keep him now he has to move up to face much tougher. He will have to prove he can go with these. Im on the fence as his big late move isnt as potent when he is coming to this type.
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6 HERESTHATMANAGAIN has been 1st or 2nd in his last 5 starts, and won this class last week with J Mac driving. He was claimed then, and now gets Brett McDonald at the controls. I dont like the trainer change and the driver change, and every little thing counts at this level. I will go to others as his price is likely to be short here.
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10 QUAN BLUE CHIP just missed last week, but takes the highest tag here and that gets him post 10. That means he spots them an extra 2 or 3 lengths on top of what he has before, and his finish means he doesnt get as close as he did last time. Pass.
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8 ROCK N ZEUS will drop into a claimer here, but drew poorly, outside a bunch of hard leavers, so he would have to take the overland route on the last turn. He just looks a few steps short of the best ones here at this point. He is a 6yo with 4 life wins and that says something about his ability to finish with better horses.
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7 MACH IMPACT stopped badly last time, and that has been a trend lately. His last 5 are all bad, and now he goes back on lasix. I cant see him until he shows some positive finish. There are no freebies in this class, and perhaps he races okay this time and then bottoms out in the nw3000l5 next week.
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2 SUNNY BO faded in the lane last time, badly. The 2nd race in a row he has done that. He was super sharp before that, but it seems he is a bit worn out now. He was a very low percentage winner for the longest time, then found life. Now, that life seems to have left him. Pass until he shows me a turnaround on that form. Puddy didnt go back in and take this one. That says something about what he thought he had left currently.
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9 SEA LAIRD tried to come late last time, as usual, but first off the claim for the hot trainer of the month, he couldnt get there. He is another that was sharp a few weeks ago, but has tailed off. Post 9 here, I cant see him getting it done.
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8 -- PACE CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,000 TO $18,000.
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4 NO TIME AT ALL was claimed 2 back by the trainer owner. The 4th claim on the page for this one. He raced well, and got up for 3rd money. He is very consistent and possible with this group if he gets the right trip. He can leave enough and close well enough if things go his way.
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5 JAYDENS PLACE was claimed 2 back, wins his share and was 2nd last time to a current bearcat. He is capable of starting better and that would be advisable here to avoid a parked out journey. He is possible but its a trip race and if he doesnt get a good one, he is beatable.
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3 ART OF FIRE has started slowly in his last 3, but in the past has shown he can blast off if you want him to. He doesnt seem to finish well if you do that, but perhaps somewhere in the middle, like holding your position without blasting off and then using his one run move could get it done. Its a longshot, but this race looks ripe for one. J Mac sticks with Carms one from the rail, and so McNair gets the call,and he is the one who blasted off with him before.
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7 CENTURY GIGALO tried better 3 times in a row after winning this class, but he could only manage small shares. So, he drops back in here, likely to get claimed, but he won off an easy trip and if he tries to leave here, he will pay a price. If he backs off and lets them battle, he has a shot. Tough to know what Sorrie will do but he is a savvy guy, so Id use him in mre as if it sets up for him, he is capable of taking them all down.
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6 BETTOR NOTBITTER A was claimed 2 back by the trainer owner with the big percentage average, but faded badly, and now adds lasix. He is another who has been popular, claimed 4 times on the page. This will be his first decent post in a while, so he is another likely blasting off, and he could get the worst of that by the time he makes the top, if he does. I dont think the race sets up good for him and his form isnt good right now anyway. I like others.
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2 SAUBLE PLAY was a bad actor going to the gate last time and jumped it off. He then made a huge recovery to get back in the race and didnt just tail off, but had too much to do. If he can behave this time he is possible with this group.
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1 MISSION THREE didnt make the final of the claiming series, as he needed 2nd last time and didnt get there. He has 6 3rds and nowins out of 10 starts and has had a lot of legit chances to win races he loses. Carm or no Carm, not this one for me.
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9 -- PACE, FILLIES & MARES, NW 4 RACES OR $60,000 LIFETIME
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4 VILLAGE JADE has run into some tough customers recently, and cant seem to get by the best of them. One of them returns here, but eventually her turn will come. With a good post like this, I would think Fillion knows the best place to be is on the front, let one of the faves go, and try a second move deep in the lane. She can win this at a price if that happens.
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2 EMMY LOU HAYES returns to this class, where she has been solid for weeks, and gets to stay at this level due to the optional claiming tag. She fits with these and has a shot if things go her way.
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3 CRUSHED PEARL missed last week, but has been a solid 4 for 4 since starting her career late. She won with ease last time, with minimal reminders midlane, but now she will have to go a second or two faster, which she has not done recently. We will see what she is made of when she doesnt have the big edge she did on the previous foes.
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7 DAZZLIN ROSIE came flying out of the pack late last time and was by them all just past the wire. The driver change certainly made some difference. She will get a lot more tote play this time, and there are still some tough customers in here to take down. Id use her in the multis, but she will have to show she can move early and still finish like that.
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6 EASYRUNNER HANOVER went even, and okay in her first try at this track for the new trainer. She can step up and do better, so be mindful of that, but she will have to. Im inclined to wait one more and see how she responds to a tough trip.
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1 AINT SHE PERFECT moves up a class after a solid win at nw3, and now meets up again with Crushed Pearl, who she could not handle to that point, and others who are of her class and experience. This is a deep field. I will wait to see how she does but she might need a few to get up to speed.
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8 PAULAS BET HANOVER has made a good buck for her connections so far, but only won 3 times. She appears to be the type that hunts the contenders, but wont pass them. Post 8 only makes that tougher here. Pass on her this time.
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5 BOTTOMOFTHENINTH seems to have hit a speed and class wall lately, and these are still tough foes for her to overcome. Until she shows she has more, I will assume she doesnt.
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9 BROKEN has been on the edges or struggling and now moves up a level and takes the outside post. I cant see her being good enough to turn that around.
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10 -- PACE MARES WHO HAVE STARTED FOR A PURSE OF $12,000 OR LESS IN 1 OF LAST 3 STARTS.
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1 BLUEWATER BEACH was claimed back by Riley and he puts her in a protected spot rather than take a likely easy purse and lose her again. She will have to beat a proven stakes winner who won her first start at this track, but otherwise, these arent much tougher than she has been blowing away.
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8 EXOTIC DRAGON shipped from out west off a month off last time, as her stakes career is over there. She simply used her class to mow them down easily, and now faces a similar bunch with one addition who is on a hot streak. She has also been known to throw in a clunker if you run at her. If someone does and she is put on the front this time, she is beatable. Based on the post, I would think Cullen takes the off the pace approach again.She will be tough if that happens.
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5 SO FRISKY shipped in from the Bs last time, cut the mile, and gave it up to the likely favorite in here. She has good tactical leaving speed, but she would do well to let someone else cut it here, and if she does, she can turn the tables at a price.
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6 SHEMARS LADY HAVOC raced a rock solid 2nd to the 8 horse last time, and loses Jody to the 7 here, but picks up McClure. If there is a battle in front of her, she is capable of picking them all off, but more likely, she comes late and is mid ticket.
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3 SMOKE N REACTOR N gets a small amount of class relief on her return here, a much better post than her last at this track, and J Mac. All of that means she has a fair shot if the two favorites dont perform to the standard they have lately, which happens.
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4 BIG DIAMOND raced okay last time in this condition and finished with broken equipment. Most of the ones in front of her that night are back, so she will have to step up.
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7 CENTURY GEORGIA did well for Montini off the claim and was 2nd in the final, although no match for the winner and it was a tiny field. She was also running in horrible in the lane, and this is a much deeper and talented field. I cant see her being dangerous with this bunch.
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2 CATCH AN ACE ships in from the B tracks, where she just hasnt been doing enough to be dangerous, and some of these are better than those. Sorrie is good with longshots like this, but its hard to like her on current form against a couple of very tough cookies.
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9 ESCAPE THE HOUSE a private purchase, with terrible form, shipping in from Northfield, off 7 seven weeks and draws the 9 hole. Toss for tonight and lets see if she can show something to go on for next time.
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Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-8133281072903694312022-03-24T06:46:00.020-07:002022-03-24T06:53:45.744-07:00Mohawk Thoughts and Selections, March 24, 20221 -- TROT, NW 1 RACE
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2 CACIO E PEPE yet another returning after the winter off, he made 5 starts last year, starting off in a maiden, finishing 2nd, then thrown right into the Golds, where he was overmatched, and finishing up with a Grassroots at Grand River where he ran at the start. He has new owners now, as he didnt measure up to the high hopes of a stakes performer. He could be more viable back in maidens, even at first asking.
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3 JAGUARA returns to the races as a filly racing the boys. She started 5 times at 2, chasing Pure Ivory types and then closing out her season with a 2nd place in a maiden as the favorite, where she raced well enough. She qualified ok enough, finishing strongly and gets that same driver back here, the first time he will drive her in a race.
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5 TYMAL TIGGS tends to be bumpy gaited so he is handled very carefully leaving, as he has blown up several times getting to the races. Nevertheless, he has some closing ability and has progressed overall now that he can stay flat. Because of that, he is vulnerable to the pace as he was last time, when he came flying late but had too far to come and they were going faster off a pedestrian half. I would think the ultimate goal is the Grassroots program and making money or selling him later for an aged horse. He is possible here, but as he just missed last time, you would have to take a short price. He is viable, but so are others.
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6 STREET GLIDER was parked the mile last time and paid for it late. She was 3 wide on the turn the start before that and held 3rd money. She needs more overall speed as the better prospects come out now. She gets a better post and a new driver. I could see her if a lot of the younger ones blow up. Otherwise, she has to do more.
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8 GIVE ME KARETS K has made 3 starts this year, all 2nds by a small margin. He is a slow starter anyway, so the outside post only makes it tougher to get around them all late. If he is the favorite, he is a bad favorite. I will wait on him to hopefully catch a bearcat in the next month and pop that night at a price.
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4 KEVIN ANTHONY is a 4yo with 4 life starts and not much to show for it. He raced at 2 and then missed all of last year. He qualified ok, twice and now begins this season. He will have to start better and show more overall speed to compete for the win at this track. Lets see what he can do. I like others better in this spot.
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1 GUINNESS made 6 starts at two, and picked up a couple of 3rds, mostly chasing Grassroots types. He comes back here at 3 and draws the rail. He appeared the type at 2 that could mature into a decent 3yo. He starts out with the trainer here, so I will watch him. He could be a price play down the line. He had a bit of trouble bearing into the turns in his only Mohawk start last year, but no inside headpole. Lets see if they made a change with that or if he is just more mature now.
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10 ALL IN RESOLVE tried the golds 3 times last year and was a big longshot who raced like it. In his one try against maidens, he only managed 5th money. He starts this season from post 10 off a so so qualifier. I would think the plan is to race him into shape and then try him in the Grassroots, and if he cant do there, sell him off. Lets see what he can do late in this mile.
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9 COME HOME FOR LIFE raced twice at 2, breaking in the first start, finishing 2nd in the 2nd start and trotting about the same as he just did for his qualifier to prep for the return. Post 9 and Boughton, I will watch and see what he brings for any future plays.
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7 SAYONARA ANGEL has made 11 starts life, with not much to show for it. However, she did trot a back half in 57.2 last time. If she can start a bit better and do that again, she is a prospect going forward. This time, I cant see her based on all the variables.
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2 -- PACE, FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING HANDICAP $8,000 TO $10,000.
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5 BEACH JOURNEY is 8 for 39 the last two years, and comes off a solid front end win at Flamboro. That was her first start in Ontario after spending most of last year at Northfield, where they go crazy fractions. She actually won the FM Open at Pompano last winter and that is no small feat as you can meet a lot tougher than you would in this spot. She is a contender if she can take her half mile track speed and do it at the big track. She picks up McNair here and he is very capable of gunning one out.
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3 E R RHONDA wins every now and then, but mostly at the B tracks. She has made 313k life and comes off a 4th in this class last time, and a win the time before that at Flamboro. Fillion seems pretty good at winning with this kind in the winter and early spring. She has a decent shot if the trip works out, something you could say about many in here. She has won 62 times in her life. That counts for something. Being off a month coming into this counts against her, but its not a toss type of factor with the claimers. Im sure she has been trained back sharp to be fit enough to go with these.
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7 CRANBERRY BRIE was claimed 2 back, raced bad the next time, but was okay last time in this class. She takes the higher tag, so she gets the outside, but post 7 in a small field is not a big deal if you can blast, which she can. J Mac sticks for the 3rd time and she is possible, but as the likely fave Id prefer others, although I would use her in the multi race wagers as protection.
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2 DIXIE STAR N raced terrible on December 9th, and had been declining in form for a while. She now returns after 3 months off, with a new trainer. Like many in here, she is hard to like on paper, but viable on her best day.
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1 CHASING SHADOWS missed more than a month shipping from Alberta to Ontario, and raced at London, leaving from the rail, and racing even the entire way. She gets back to the big track and in for a similar price. She has not won this year but is generally close.
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4 MOSTLY DALI grinds out a living for the Cullens, and she managed to blow up the tote board on January 7th, but generally she is a bottom of the ticket type. She went to Flamboro last time on the class drop looking for the easy score but the 5 horse in this race wired her.
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6 MY DAY was racing 5 claimers in Alberta and not fairing well at all. That was 6 weeks ago, and she has now qualified well in the prep for this. As we saw Monday, those Alberta shippers have a tendency to bomb out here unless they are high class stock. I would have to see something from her, but this time, I will pass.
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3 -- TROT, FILLIES AND MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW 3
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3 SAMOSA showed flashes of real talent at 2, made 61k and beat some nice horses, then made the final of the Peaceful Way, but she was no match for any of them in the final. She qualified sharp, going away, and she is the one to beat in this spot if she is as advertised. Id want to see her parade, but if she passes that test, she should handle this mediocre bunch. Fillion did well with her last year and he is back in the drivers seat again.
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1 GOODGOLLYMISSMOLLY wired a medicre bunch last time in 55 flat, but she has also been inconsistent, breaking the start before that and has had breaking problems along the way. I prefer Samosa over her, but she can get 2nd money if she keeps at it and shows up.
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6 BETTINA HANOVER has missed two months after not doing enough or breaking early in a straight maiden after winning a maiden race with a weak bunch before that. She has potential, but she appears to be over her head tonight. I will watch her for when she dives back to nw2 with more experience and conditioning.
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2 DRAVEN HANOVER has 2 lifetime wins, both in maidens, the last one in December, beating Kryptonite and Bettina Hanover. She hasnt done much since, and her speed just doesnt stack up with the best in here. She is a good leaver, and that can get her cheques in races like this, but last time she was up close and wiped out by others. She can take 4th or 5th if she sits and saves ground.
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5 YASMENE SEELSTER has shown little to this point in 2 life starts, yet she lands in nw3 against some others who have winning form. Cant see her at all with these, but she must be watched if she starts to show life coming from way out of it on the drop back into maidens later.
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7 MAISYS MUSCLES has always looked lame parading and spotty at best in races, but she goes and she got the win eventually racing the weak fields you find in that class in the winter. Now she comes off a vet scratch lame and will have to be seen. I wont touch her unless she looks a whole lot better.
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4 YANKEE ROMANCE shows a break in her last 5 charted lines, including one at this track last week. Cant play her until she shows something other than that.
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4 -- PACE, FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE
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6 INFINITY SEELSTER seems to be improving, and her last mile, overall, and the last quarter would trounce many of these. McNair clearly has been under orders to race her off the pace, as she is aggresive and would likely turn into a runaway if you let her, like some Big Jims are. If she maintains what she did last time, or even improves, she is the one to beat
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4 SEXY PLAYMATE didnt start at 2, but has started five times now this winter, with the first being a 2nd at London. She has gradually improved her times each race, with her last certainly good enough to go with the best of these. For a price, she is worth using in the multi race wagers. She does have early speed, which can be valuable in a race like this from the 4 hole.
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2 LYONS PRINCESS didnt do enough to make the ticket in 3 starts, but did come a fast back half in the last of those. She was shipped over to Flamboro, where the fractions and overall mile are a lot slower, and she jogged there. She still fits the maiden here, but she will have to start better to make her somewhat good late kick useful. She was slightly bothered in the stretch in her last race here, then kept coming late. She is possible if she can start better with more experience now.
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1 UNIQUE ERA is a fts who qualified well with the trainer, and now picks up Scott Young. I suppose she has a shot if she looks the part. The rail for a fts under the lights can be tricky. Im inclined to wait a start on her.
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5 ARKELL was a big ticket yearling, and now, after 3 qualifiers makes her lifetime debut. McNair had the choice of the two his dad starts here, and he took the 6 horse, who has race experience and has shown a fast competitive mile. She is not impossible to go much faster than she has shown, but she will have to and that is hard to rely on. Her slow starts generally dont play with green maidens against viable others like this race has.
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9 WINDSUN MOJITO showed decent speed at 2 in a couple of starts, but got sick mid summer and was shut down. She comes back now with the 9 hole, so likely back of the bus, sit, and brush late, and possibly get her time down. Lets see if she shows something for next time, a common theme with many of these likely prepping for the Grassroots in a couple of months.
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7 WINDY REPORT is a good leaver but in 7 starts she has not been able to finish the job, even though she has been a short price in almost all of them. She will pop off one of these days, as this kind always does, for a price. As the weather warms and the better horses come out now, she will have to produce a lot more speed. So far, she has not shown she has that.
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3 GRITTY GRACIE raced twice last year to no avail at KD, as she clearly wasnt ready to go much. She was shut down early, and appears to need at least a couple this year to get up to the speed of some of these. Watch and evaluate what I see tonight for a later play.
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8 VINTAGE DELIGHT raced twice last year in the Grassroots but was a big longshot and not competitive. She comes back here in the spring, starting out in a maiden. She is a half sister to Ellis Park, and others who got a lot better with age. Bettors Delights can also be like that, and I will watch for signs she is putting it together. Tonight, from post 8, against others already fit and going fast, pass.
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5 -- PACE, NW 1 RACE
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6 CATANZARO has raced once, got on the list as he was already distanced at the half. He qualified right back, showing decent overall speed and a good last quarter. If something in here is going to score at a price, its this guy. He could just back up again, but he has a license to go forward where others just dont look like they have enough on their best day.
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4 ODS AMORES raced well last time, and has obvious ability, but like others in here, he will have to back that up with a 2nd effort against a couple who have already shown fast miles or high potential. Id want to see him parade to see how he is holding up, but he is usable in the mre.
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1 CODYS KNAPSACK is a slow starter who attempts to make a big 3rd quarter move. Sometimes that works, other times he blows up or stalls. Last time he was good, the time before he blew up on the turn. As a likely short price, Id use him but he is one of many because of his inconsistency.
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9 SERIOUS MOJO is a fts with decent breeding and some potential. But with the 9 hole and J Mac aboard likely bringing a short price, I can see him getting beat by something that out trips him here. Play against.
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5 LE GEANT has raced 5 times this winter and has gradually become competitive. But, he didnt get it done,and last time he caught a horrid, small field of no good ones, and was no match for the winner who was rough gaited but still sailed by them all under no urging, then was no good Monday night. The 3rd place finisher in that race is a professional maiden. He would have to show a lot more to think he could beat the better ones in here.
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3 NIGHT SHADOW is a fts who didnt show much at all in his prep for this. He will probably need to go in 55 to win this, and that would mean dropping 5 seconds. Lets see what he has. Not tonight in my opinion.
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2 HP LIS SHADOW started out okay, but like many maidens he didnt back that up in start 2 and was just as bad last time. Im sure he will find his way back, but I cant play him after how bad he was last time. He will have to show me a sign.
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8 HIGHLAND SUNSEEKER is grossly overmatched with this group and from the 8 hole I suspect he is looking for a soft inside trip and hunting for 4th or 5th money.
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10 AVID is yet another one of Toscanis failures that has been farmed out and makes his debut from the 10 hole as a 4yo where he appears fast, but was 20 lengths back in his qualifier so that is deceptive. Lets see what he can do here and if there is some hope he can be a decent WEG racehorse.
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7 PHILTHEBANK is 0 for 13 and shows nothing to suggest he can win at this track, or at the B tracks for that matter at this stage. Pass.
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6 -- TROT, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 (FM 3) RACES
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6 MASSIVE PROFIT raced a sharp mile in his first start for The Stable on this circuit, nabbing 3rd and trotting a fast mile. He also looked good parading and is the likely winner here, and he could bring 3-1 to 7-2, which would be good value. He is my top choice and J Mac is the top dog right now, so that is also good as he goes from the highest percentage post at this track.
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7 MAHONE SEELSTER made 3 starts late in his 2yo season, hit the board in all of them and won the last one. He missed his entire 3yo season, so obviously some kind of injury occured. He shows up now as a 4yo off two winning qualifiers, and showed speed and promise at 2. He is a viable longshot who can take them all down if he is healed and ready to roll.
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3 MAPLE LEAF BOUND scored at first asking from the 9 hole and looked like a prospect, but he also saved a ton of ground and came up the rail as the rest were giving it up. Against winners, he has come back down to earth, as many do, including the ones inside him here. He was flat 2 back when he had to rough it on the outside, and blew up well before the start last time and just went around. He has the potential to turn it around at some point, maybe even tonight against this bunch, so I will keep my eye on him. He could be a price play in here now that many have soured on his flash and crash status.
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8 MYCROWNMYKINGDOM is a 4yo gelding, half brother to Bee A Magician, who cost 450k as a yearling, but what is money to a billionaire like Godin. Anyway, he is a bust at this stage, as he has 1 win and 8k made, got beat in a maiden at this track last year by Vali Hanover, and then blew up his next start and went on the shelf. His qualifier was okay, but nothing special. I would think he is on a very short leash and if he doesnt perform in his first couple of races, he will be sold off to the project guys who will tinker with him. I expect him to blast and send, and he will have to live up to that stern test.
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5 VALI HANOVER is 1 for 18 the last 2 years, but has nabbed 2nd in his last 2. He isnt meeting bearcats here, so he has a shot. As the likely fave, his price will be hard to take. Id say in the 7-5 range.
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2 GQ MAGIC is similar to the one above. He has one life win, last year at 3, is a very low percentage type, but he shows flashes that indicate he can do enough to make the bottom of the ticket on his best day when others fail. He blew up himself last time. I like others a bit better but he would be no shock as this is a weak group.
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4 BIG MILES started well last time, then sat and came up the rail as the rest gave it up and the two legit contenders were late closers who didnt get there. Now he meets winners, some with more experience and speed than him. On the same night, the 5 horse in this race went almost 4 seconds faster. I dont see him popping up in his first try with these. Pass.
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1 DEWY DEO had one win at 3, but otherwise has done nothing to show he will be any kind of dangerous with these or even weaker. He is hard to like.
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7 -- PACE, CLAIMING $17,500 FOR NW $42,500 LIFETIME.
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3 JUST PLAIN NEEDY drew the rail last time, and didnt get his favored trip. He did go a good mile though, and since joining Carms outfit has been gradually getting consistent and sharp. He likes the front and is likely to be put there tonight. He almost wired them from the 10 hole two back, and sat a pocket the time before that and was a decent 2nd to a bomb that came by them all late. He is one of many, but a contender on paper for sure.
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5 RICOTTABKIDDINME woke up a shade last time for Montini. He was put on lasix 3 back, but had broken equipment that night. He drew outside the next race, and went okay but even. Last time, he came late and picked up 3rd money. He draws well here and has a shot for a price. He has scored at big odds a few times this winter already.
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6 J J PATRICK switches to Moreau for his 2nd start at this track. He is a bit of a trip dependent hanger, but possibly Moreau can do something about that. If he is good for 2 seconds improvement, he is in the mix with these. Some look better currently, but every week is a new story with this type of class.
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7 PRIMETIME SEELSTER was good at London, but since moving to WEG, and adapting to the overall much faster miles, he has become an also ran, who makes a sharp move on the turn then gets outpaced late, which he has 3 times in a row now. I like others, but one night he will stay on the rail, come up the inside and outgut them near the line. Maybe tonight, but its hard to rely on that kind of trip coming.
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4 SLICK N SPORTY was a big ticket yearling who didnt race much until 5, won 3 at 6, and then was claimed from London by a chemical trainer and rAn off 3 straight. He changed hands 2 more times and now has raced poorly 3 times in a row, twice for Moreau. He did have two poor posts in the his last two at this track, and tried better at Flamboro, starting slow, going wide on the last turn and coming late, finishing going forward with the pack. He can step up, but he shows signs of tailing off since the bump back in February. It seems going faster, which you have to do at this track eventually, took the starch out of him, like it does many. He did it once, but has gone backwards since.
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2 TWAIN SEELSTER is a fast leaver who likes the front, but has trouble finishing it off. He added lasix for his two starts in the West barn, but it hasnt helped enough. West has been known to bring in some big longshots, and mostly clsimers like this, but this one is hard to take based on his racelines.
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1 PERPETUAL ROCK scored at bombs away odds earlier in the winter, but hasnt been able to put that kind of finish up again. He is a slow starter and tends to hang a bit on the turn and deep in the stretch. Others look better.
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8 -- PACE FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,000 TO $15,000.
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3 ANCHOR SO REEL was a very high percentage winner last year and earlier this year at a variety of B tracks, and was 1st and 2nd with J Mac driving lower down on the page. He returns here, but her form has tailed off. Like many of these, form tails off, form pops up again. J Mac is good finding the right kind of soft trip with this kind. She has a shot based on all of that.
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7 SOMETHING ROYAL has been solid in this class but not good enough to win, as was the case last time as she was nosed out on the line. She was a win machine last year but has been 8 of 11 on the ticket and yet winless so far this year. One of many with a decent shot.
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2 YNOTHOS was a 16 for 29 win machine last year at the B tracks but wasnt as successull in her first try with these. She had broken equipment last time at Flamboro, and now comes back to try this class again. She is one of many in here with a legit shot off the right trip.
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1 BLINK AND GONE goes off the claim for Fellows, and she is the consistent, hard knocking claiming type that guys like Fellows like and do well with. She is one of many, but she doesnt win as much as she is 2nd and 3rd, so there is also that.
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4 COCO BEACH DE VIE brushed to the top and wired them from there last time, a group including and similar to many of these. She should blast off here and try to take them all the way. That is possible, but like many in here, she isnt always as good this week as she was last week.
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6 YUMMY CANDY ships in from Saratoga, where she was mediocre at best, and will face tougher here. She does have a fast mark at Dover last year, but that is a highway anyway. She won the odd one last year and can pick up a slice if she adapts. The jury is out if she is good enough.
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8 SANTACRUZ SEELSTER seemed to have an issue in February which caused her to break many races in a row. She has straightened that out now and has gone a bit faster each time. Now she has to step up, and from the 8 hole, to be a winner again. She has one life win in 25 starts and has only managed 4th in her last two races, both with very short fields. Im not ready to use her yet, but Demers seems to get this kind going eventually, so I am keeping my eye on her.
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5 RUNAWAY HEIRESS ships in from London, where she has been a decent B track horse for a year or two. She is 3rd off the claim and tries the big girls tonight. She has also almost missed a month,and is a 15.1 longshot on the program. She will have to go much faster with these. I will watch once.
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9 PERFECT BELLA ships in from Northfield, where she has been nfg, and drops into the Fellows barn. She qualified ok enough and will start her local journey from the 9 hole. Pass until I see her perform in a real race and possibly with a post that can make her viable.
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9 -- TROT, NW $39,000 IN 2021/22 (MIN 15 STARTS)
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2 TEXACO MAN has solid form and speed, and should handle this bunch without any trouble. Should. He was winless in just 6 starts last year and eventually whatever caused that is going to reach back out and bite him. This is the type of race where its hard to go against him, but you cringe taking 3-5 or else on a horse like this. Reluctant top call but I would never single a horse like this.
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7 TUCKERS OUT was put on lasix last time, taken to the back and raced ok to go a back half in 56.3. He has enough ability to be the one to win it if the 2 blows up. Must use on the multi race wagers.
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6 ARCHIES STAR is the logical one to go to if you are looking to beat Texaco Man. I guess that makes sense, but he has his issues as well. He is a mediocre starter and doesnt do enough in the lane. He needs a lot to go his way trip wise to win the entire shabang. Which he can, if the 2 bombs out and the rest dont step up. The odds are against all of that happening, but I will still use him on the multi race tickets as stranger things have happened in racing before.
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1 HORSE TRADER was racing good in January, with 3 2nd place finishes, then came up sick. He qualified and then raced well to be 2nd in a similar class to this one, then bombed out again his last 2. He is the type, in this type of class, that is not impossible to step back up with no warning and turn the car right around on a dime. For a big price, Id use him in the multi race wagers on the chance the 2 doesnt show up and the other contenders are flat or no good.
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3 SWANS HONEY drew the 10 hole, went right to back, and had no shot last time. Her previous effort, 32-1 from the rail where she nabbed 2nd, was obviously much better and the winner of that race came back 4 days later and doubled up. She is possible if the 2 blows up, which is the key variable of the race either way.
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5 VICTOR INVICTUS is 2 for his last 34, and doesnt even do enough off soft trips to make the ticket, let alone win. He is hard to like with his racing style and lack of winning ability.
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4 CARMENS FLUKE has been off since November, when he wasnt doing much relative to what he meets here, and only won 1 in 24 at the B tracks. His so so at best qualifier suggests he has no shot whatsoever. He needs to drop money fast to get back in the nw classes at the bottom at places like London and Grand River, so I expect him to be jammed the next couple of weeks to achieve that goal.
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10 -- PACE, POP-UP EVENT FINAL- CLAIMING $9500
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiaIRlmTv-2hVUKvr_cy8wf7AsGknNOHIYR0FBz-P-Vm4ivQQDeSiLV96hLmb3LBEE20TLar4rx5qX_a0srI09maXpYGjcW2dH3v26iLowiaQr4dVmizNfu9bRCAwA_CukBRZea4QNqQyQLCVpipy194MhFwh238ySwskzjLfJJXRuOVGvBiw7MrWH-g/s1600/download%20%282%29.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="10" data-original-width="10" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiaIRlmTv-2hVUKvr_cy8wf7AsGknNOHIYR0FBz-P-Vm4ivQQDeSiLV96hLmb3LBEE20TLar4rx5qX_a0srI09maXpYGjcW2dH3v26iLowiaQr4dVmizNfu9bRCAwA_CukBRZea4QNqQyQLCVpipy194MhFwh238ySwskzjLfJJXRuOVGvBiw7MrWH-g/s1600/download%20%282%29.jpg"/></a></div>
5 KINGOFBROKENHEARTS was claimed by the trainer/owner on March 10th, winning fairly easy, so he was in the final and skipped racing altogether last week. Now, McClure chooses him over the rail horse, although he has not been driving him all along. That means something to me. He is another that is likely blasting. Someone is getting hung or shuffled badly in this race. It could be him if the 4 horse beats him out and the rail horse insists on leading. If he can beat one of those two out, he has a decent shot at a 2nd move to win it all. If he can do all that.
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4 SPORTS JACKET was claimed last time, as he slashed his tag with his one shot to make this final, which he did by winning. He has decent early speed and he will need to use it to get in behind Choreographer and hope that one does the work and sets up a chance to get out in time and pace away. Its possible, but who knows when you sit behind a speedball who can just spit the bit in front of you, if they run him, which happened last time.
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3 HELLO ROCKY is another among most who was claimed out of the first leg, got 2nd, and then was put in for the protection tag to make sure they kept him for the 25k final here. He won that next start, so they are 6k ahead now, assuming he gets claimed here, another likely scenario. He wasnt as lucky or good last time, but one could argue the main goal was to have him jacked up for this final, the big money for these types. He is 2 for 35 with that win 3 back in the last 15 months, but he has new, more successful connections now. He is a mediocre at best starter, and thus, he will rely on the outer flow to get him in contention if things go his way.
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2 AJKNIGHT came into this series with decent, yet unspectacular form, shipping in from the Bs, then got 2nd money to lock his spot up for this final, was claimed that night, and went to Flamboro like many others raising his tag so he was secure as a proposition in this race for the current owners. In any event, they are now 4k ahead, as he won that race and also goes for an additional 500 bucks here, assuming he gets claimed, which is likely. He has a shot if they battle in front of him, which in these types of rodeo events, is likely. In spite of last weeks win, he is 2 for 32 over the last 15 months. He needs a good trip and possibly can get it. Sorrie takes over and he is good with this kind in finding a way to save some ground yet be able to be in position to win late.
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1 CHOREOGRAPHER on his best day, when he makes front, would crush this bunch. His best days seem to be behind him, but he certainly has turned around a sharp decline in the last month. West got him going, wired with authority a similar bunch to these to lock in his spot in this final, and was claimed, so West paid a 3500 premium to get him back for this final, and then put him in for 2k more last time to try and win some money, keep him tight, and make sure he had him for this race. Which he now draws the rail, but loses McClure to another. That is the most concerning part, that McClure knows and saw all that, but he goes to another, who albeit is apparantly jacked up and ready for this race too. Can he find old glory here. Yes. Is he a cinch to do that. No. Will he have crazy pace pressure like last time. That is a lock. Can he handle it and live to tell. That we will find out. I think he gets beat, but seems to be good for a while with West, who likely knows he can cash out a good buck just racing him after this race anyway.
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8 ATEYATEFNGERSLOUIE has been claimed out of all of his last 4 races, and makes the final here without winning a leg. Post 8 vastly hurts his chances, as he has no shot at the top and he isnt the type that likes to go around horses on the turn. I like others.
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9 LYONS IMAGE has been claimed out of his last 5 races, and last time he brushed to the top, caught very soft fractions and accelerated home for a comfortable win. None of that works here and I would think he is lucky to score 4th or 5th money if he sits back and lets others burn themselves out battling.
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7 THUNDERING JIM won two legs and thus easily made the final, so he was saved last week and preps for this. He is certainly to be claimed again, so its a very low risk claim. He seemed to peak a few starts back, and was all out last time and barely held off a hanger. I prefer others, but he is possible on his best effort with others battling in front of him. I dont see him gunning out this time. If he does, he is hung the mile.
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6 JUST MARVELOUS was claimed out of both legs and made the final, so he was protected last time, and still managed to get 2nd money. However, he had every shot at the weakening leader in that 2nd leg, and couldnt go by him, a habit he has. I cant see him winning this with this many live options all around him.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiaIRlmTv-2hVUKvr_cy8wf7AsGknNOHIYR0FBz-P-Vm4ivQQDeSiLV96hLmb3LBEE20TLar4rx5qX_a0srI09maXpYGjcW2dH3v26iLowiaQr4dVmizNfu9bRCAwA_CukBRZea4QNqQyQLCVpipy194MhFwh238ySwskzjLfJJXRuOVGvBiw7MrWH-g/s1600/download%20%282%29.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="10" data-original-width="10" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiaIRlmTv-2hVUKvr_cy8wf7AsGknNOHIYR0FBz-P-Vm4ivQQDeSiLV96hLmb3LBEE20TLar4rx5qX_a0srI09maXpYGjcW2dH3v26iLowiaQr4dVmizNfu9bRCAwA_CukBRZea4QNqQyQLCVpipy194MhFwh238ySwskzjLfJJXRuOVGvBiw7MrWH-g/s1600/download%20%282%29.jpg"/></a></div>
10 ELROY SHINER I wouldnt like if he drew well. Post 10 makes it easy to toss him.
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiaIRlmTv-2hVUKvr_cy8wf7AsGknNOHIYR0FBz-P-Vm4ivQQDeSiLV96hLmb3LBEE20TLar4rx5qX_a0srI09maXpYGjcW2dH3v26iLowiaQr4dVmizNfu9bRCAwA_CukBRZea4QNqQyQLCVpipy194MhFwh238ySwskzjLfJJXRuOVGvBiw7MrWH-g/s1600/download%20%282%29.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="10" data-original-width="10" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiaIRlmTv-2hVUKvr_cy8wf7AsGknNOHIYR0FBz-P-Vm4ivQQDeSiLV96hLmb3LBEE20TLar4rx5qX_a0srI09maXpYGjcW2dH3v26iLowiaQr4dVmizNfu9bRCAwA_CukBRZea4QNqQyQLCVpipy194MhFwh238ySwskzjLfJJXRuOVGvBiw7MrWH-g/s1600/download%20%282%29.jpg"/></a></div>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-90589503122813374382022-03-21T14:45:00.001-07:002022-03-22T04:35:44.310-07:00Mohawk Thoughts and Selections, March 21, 2022Race 1: NW $9,000 L5
2 DANCER HALL dropped to this class last time and woke up sharply. That was 3rd off the shelf, and if he maintains that form, he is the one to beat. There are enough other chances here that he could offer in the 3-1 range or slightly less. I like him in this spot.
1 DERF HANOVER moves up in class off a 2nd and 3rd, changes owners and trainer. He also gets Trevor Henry and an inside post. He has a outside shot if he makes the top or the pocket and the faves blow up.
6 PRINCESSPARTYPANTS is capable enough with these types, although she is the win shy type. She has an outside shot if she trips out and the faves blowup for some reason.
7 IGLARE AM was flat last week on return, but J Mac got her a sweet trip and found a seam late to get it done. These are slightly tougher and she would have to be better at a probable short price. I will go against her.
8 HONE THE TONE did all the work first up, had the lead until late, but was picked off by the favorite who had a sweet trip. He has stepped up lately but the post is an issue here and he is a bit short of the best ones anyway. I will pass on him for the win, but he can pickup 3rd or 4th if others fail.
3 TYMAL RIGGS has faded twice in the lane against these and beat a suspect group the race before that a class lower when they went a back half in a minute. He is not likely to be competitive at this level until he steps up. I havent seen any of that yet.
5 COLD RAGE generally trots in the 57 range, and there are at least two in here who are likely to go 56 or faster. I cant see him winning with this bunch.
4 ARRAKIS comes off a win at Flamboro, and has upset potential at big odds here, but generally he is a bit short of this type of competition at this stage of his career. He would need a lot to go right for him to take them all down.
Race 2: NW1
1 ALMOST THERE BOSS was a bit player at 2 when he tried Grassroots types. He did show high speed though and paced home fast in his qualifier prep for these. He has an obvious shot but is no lock.
2 LETSFLYTOGETHER N. is 0 for 11 life and ships in from the Big M. He catches a weak bunch but he is no bearcat either. He will have to be seen. He is fast, but he has never hit the board. That isnt good.
7 WELLWORTHTHEWAIT shows a win in 12 starts last year, at Rideau. He has been off for the winter since November and tries his luck here, as he gets in a straight maiden with a weak and suspect bunch. He did pace in 54.2 last year and came back 7 days later and paced in 55 and change. His qualifier was okay. He has upset potential if he is ready to go in 55 and the chalks dont deliver, which is possible looking them over.
6 J M DEFLECTION brought his time down on Thursday night and comes right back. There are questions regarding the likely faves here, so he is viable as a price play with Trevor Henry back on for a second time.
4 ARSAIG seems to be gradually improving, and he can probably bring his overall time down another second, which might land him on the ticket, but I still think he is a race or two away from winning form.
5 ROCKNROLL NATION ships to the big track off 3 5th place finishes at London. He will have to drastically improve his form and time to go with many of these. He does pick up McClure from the trainer/driver, and lets see if he shows anything to recommend him for next time. Pass here.
3 SUCRETARIAT is 0 for 29 lifetime and other than being a good steady leaver, he doesnt do enough when they turn for home. Pass until he shows me something that indicates he can win at the big track.
Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-91054592028337070712020-12-30T13:31:00.001-08:002020-12-30T18:59:13.446-08:00Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 30, 2020<p><span style="background-color: red;"><span style="color: white;"> Race 1</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 25k</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>1m</p><p>Summary Very mixed bag, with a fts who is the likely favorite, a bunch of others with reason to suggest they could step up and beat that one, and a few with suspect races who might have been aiming for a race like this for a big score at the windows. This will be very much a jockeys race, and <b><i>a jockey known to pop with bigger longshots might be the one to do that here.</i></b></p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Chipshape</i></b> by Backtalk, who is <i><span style="color: red;">by Smarty Jones and out of an Affirmed dam</span></i> has started 5 times with one 2nd place finish in his 2nd last start at Maiden claiming, and was raised up to MSW last time and finished 10th. He also tried the turf for the first time last time and shortened up. This time, he will stay on the turf, go back to the mile distance and claiming class where he managed second. He is an <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>interesting longshot prospect.</b></span> Perhaps turf is the right surface for him and he just needs to be on it at the right class level.</p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Lord Flintshire</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Flintshire, who had the classic turf distance pedigree and delivered on that genetic code at the highest level, this one makes his 3rd life start. He has <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>had trouble getting in races that stay on the turf,</b></span> due to the unusual amounts of rain in the late summer and fall. Now, he gets to come right back in 3 weeks at the same distance, class level and surface and draws a much better starting post. His speed figure progressed from start 1 to 2. If he can go forward off the tighter return and improving speed, <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">he is very viable as a longer shot</span></b>. He does have a Rahy dam, and that means both that he is even more likely to excel on the turf, but also might be a hanger when they get near the line. Not all of them are, but many. He kept closing late last time but his bad post and slow start then meant he couldnt get up in time.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Military Commander</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by<span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b> War Dancer,</b></span> who is by War Front, he also makes his 3rd life start. War Dancer was a Grade 2 winner, broke his maiden early at Gulfstream, raced all over the map and was fairly <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">consistent and durable,</span></b> making 30 life starts and a million bucks over 4 years. This one started his career at GPW, but then shifted to Tampa last time and improved his speed rating a bit, now comes back to Gulfstream to resume his chase of better horses, So far he has been 9th and 10th, and while he takes a slight class drop here on his return,<b> <span style="color: red;">he will have to do much more as a 30-1 longshot</span> </b>to get my attention. He bears watching, but I cant use him in this spot. <span style="background-color: #04ff00;">Blinkers are off today.</span> Lets see if that helps.</p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>My Maxamillion</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>is by Bullet Train, who is by Sadlers Wells, and was a minor stakes winner and chased Grade 1 types many times over with at best only <b><span style="color: red;">on the fringes type finishes.</span></b> This one has raced much like his sire, with a 3rd, 4th and 5th in 3 tries so far. He will go longer here and try the turf, and thus, has some room for improvement in a race with mediocre types like this. <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">He is possible</span></b> if he can move forward a bit. Blewitt takes him on top and Nic takes him 2nd. I will listen to what they have to say as to their reasons. </p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Quinto Sol</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Social Inclusion, who for a month or two was thought to be the next super horse, then leveled off chasing the best of his year, and has<span style="color: #38761d;"> <b>sired some okay runners and winners with his first crop</b></span> to race this year. This guy has a trainer who makes strange change moves, like running a horse in a maiden claimer, to a horrid speed figure, dead last, then moving him up to MSW, running better, at least he beat a few, then putting him back in a maiden claimer. He does bring in some big longshots, so obviously, <span style="color: red;"><b>his moves are shifty and have to be watched</b></span> with suspicion. Like he is setting up a score. He started out at 50k going 6f on dirt, last time MSW at 7.5 on the turf, now goes even longer, drops back into a 25k claimer and stays on turf.<span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b> Dangerous type</b></span> if he is just playing around with him to get him in the right zone. He <b><i>takes the blinkers off today </i></b>and maybe that might help also.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Westerly Wind</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Cajun Breeze, who is by Congrats, and sires a lot of 2yo winners early, this one makes his 4th life start, and started out with a similar profile to many of the runners of his sire. He was 2nd in his lifetime debut, but has since finished 7th and 6th. His speed figures for all 3 are virtually the same. He had his chance to crack first out, but didnt get the victory. He runs exactly under the same conditions as last time, except he gets <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">a much better starting post this time.</span></b> That might be enough to enhance his win chances. His trainer is sharp and makes no other changes. He did have some road trouble last time in a race where there was a lot of bumper cars going on and he had to wait until late to try and go forward, which he was doing at that point. </p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Golden Fiddle</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>a fts by Tonalist. He was an 82k yearling but debuts for 25k. He worked about 12 times in New York, but never raced as he was unimpressive overall doing that. He has shipped down here and worked 3 times, but still doesnt show much.<b><span style="color: red;"> Unless he takes unusual money</span></b>, he is a watch only type. </p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>I Am the Grey</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Mizzen Mast, a sts making no changes of note and running back on 27 days, was up near the pace in that debut, and<b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"> while 7th, was in a pack of many near the winner.</span></b> I suppose he has a fighting chance here, but<b><span style="color: red;"> is a bad value low fave if he turns out to be that. I wouldnt take 3-1 on him.</span></b> Acacia and Ron take him on top and the others have him rated top 3, so while he is 6-1 ML, you arent likely to get anything near that. He had every chance last time but couldnt last when the better ones ran late. He looks like a fader.</p><p>9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Marlon B</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>a fts by Hard Spun goes out for top trainer Gargan and is the <span style="color: red;"><b>3-1 ML choice</b></span>. He shows steady improving works and on paper, looks tough. He is fts though, so he will have to be seen. He is a homebred, so Im sure they have high hopes for him.</p><p>10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Parmenides</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>a sts by Munnings who <b><span style="color: red;">only sold for 2500 as a yearling.</span></b> So obviously he has some sort of confirmation issue. Nevertheless, he had made the races, sticks to the turf, goes longer and drops in class for start 2. Sano trains, and you have to be afraid of anything he sends out at long odds making changes. So, there is that.</p><p>11<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>He Ain't No Saint</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Shanghai Bobby, who is by Harlans Holiday, is a homebred making his 5th life start. The first 3 starts were mediocre at best, but the<span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b> last was better</b></span> as he finished 3rd, vastly improving his speed rating while going longer and trying the turf for the first time. He was hard to handle at times last time and still finished with good punch when he had a chance. <span style="color: red;"><b>He comes right back with no changes from last time but draws a bad post this time, which is a factor in a race like this.</b></span></p><p>12<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Weight of Glory</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Gemologist out of a Distorted Humor mare, makes his 3rd start and<span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b> showed a lot of improvement in start 2</b></span>, dropping out of MSW, into a claimer and nabbing 3rd with a much better speed figure. He shortened up that day, but will go back to the mile distance and this time try turf for the first time, but, <span style="color: red;"><b>he gets the far outside post in a race where many are likely to blast out and take their shot.</b></span> One of many who could pop on these, but he is up against it because of the ground he will have to give early or get caught wide.</p><p><span style="background-color: #2b00fe;"><span style="color: white;">Race 3</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #bf9000;"><span style="color: white;">MDN CLM 12.5</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>5 1/2F</p><p>Summary Two likely short priced favorites who figure but have issues, and a bunch of others who are hard to like but not impossible to make a case for. Tough call, but Id be inclined to say the favorites go down here. </p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Con Permiso</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Algorithms out a First Samarai mare, <span style="color: red;"><b>has made 9 starts already as a 2yo and hasnt gotten it done.</b></span> He was a cheap yearling, has shown mediocre speed and finishes on the edges a lot without winning. He comes right back to the same class and distance, this time though he wont be 12-1 after finishing 3rd last time. He finished 2nd for 32k on Sept 11th as the fave, then missed the ticket his next start at a similar class at 1-2. If he were to take heavy tote action, which is likely, he is very bad value. I wouldnt take less than 3-1 on him. Id probably take 12-1 on him again if he doesnt click here and runs back a couple of weeks later. <span style="color: red;"><b>He is that type of horse for that type of barn.</b></span></p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Artista</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Distorted Humor, has made 4 starts, first 2 in MSW, next two in maiden claiming, has yet to hit the ticket and shows little speed at all, even relative to this suspect bunch.<span style="color: red;"><b> His owner trainer may have a plan for him, but I cant see what that would be</b></span>. He will cut his tag in half here, which he needed to do anyway, go back to dirt, which he has already tried and didnt do any better, and go a shade longer, which he has already done. I cant use him off any of that until he starts to compete. </p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Aces Up</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>a fts by Union Rags out of an Unbridled Songs dam, he is likely to be a big boy. He didnt sell well as a yearling, was attempted to be flipped as a 2yo, but returned unsold at 9k. <span style="color: red;">Those arent good signs</span>. He is 5-1 ML, but his works are mediocre and I am likely to pass on him and watch once. Unless he wows me in the post parade.</p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><i><b>Master of Disaster</b></i><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> by Khozan is a 5 time starter to this point with one 2nd place finish. He got that 2nd place finish in start 3 when he dropped out of the MSW chase. But since, 2 more starts in maiden claiming and he has missed the ticket. Thus, he will take another slight drop, 16k to 12.5k, and shorten up a shade. He is viable, but as the likely chalk, he can be had. Going shorter will help him as he looked spent mid stretch, but he does run in and that can get him beat in any case by anything that runs.</p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Florida Endeavour</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>a fts by Central Banker, who is by Speightstown, and thus we might expect this one to be the type to blast right out of the gate. He showed reasonably fast works in November, <span style="color: red;"><b>but has since regressed.</b></span> If he does blast, I wont expect him to last with these seasoned if not vulnerable types. He could take a few with him and set it up for a closer.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Without Passport</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>fts by Tapizar, who sold for 12k, then 9k as a yearling then dumped off for 3k as a 2yo to his current connections and he debuts near the bottom claimer. He will pick up the apprentice jockey, so he gets a break on weight, <span style="color: red;"><b>but his works suggest he isnt anywhere near competitive at this point.</b></span> Pass. </p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>You're All Right</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Gone Astray, is 3 starts into his career with no finishes on the ticket to this point. He is a homebred who started out in MSW, aborted that after the debut, and last time sliced his tag in half, shortened up a 1/16th and <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>took significant tote money off the ML,</b></span> and was able to get 4th. He comes right back under the same variables. He fits at this level, but will have to do a lot better to beat a few of these. They are ripe to be taken, so that isnt impossible. </p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Valeroso</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>by Uncaptured, 6 starts in, has not made the ticket in any of those and his terrible speed ratings dont get any better as he races. I cant see him at any point with these. He would be a massive bomb if he comes in. He will drop in class, go longer and switch surfaces, all things that have been tried with him with the same result. </p><p><span style="background-color: black; color: #fcff01;">Race 6</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #bf9000;"><span style="color: white;">Maiden Special Weight</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>6 1/2F</p><p>Summary A lot of big ticket fillies, and a few who would have been if they had not been homebreds that have been retained, and many making their first lifetime start. Post parade will be key, and nobody in here should be a short price, less than 2-1. If they are, others are value. If anything takes unusual money, that one is to be looked at closer.</p><p>1 <b><i>Touring Egypt</i></b> fts by Cairo Prince, She was a 160k yearling, then RNA twice as a 2yo, obviously trained down fast and they didnt get what they were looking for. Here we are almost 2 years later and she makes her debut. <span style="color: red;"><b>Something obviously happened from the time she went into the 2yo sale and when she was attempted to be trained to race.</b></span> She will have to be seen, but Im inclined to pass on her first out and see what she has, or has left.<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span></p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Aqaareb</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>sts by Bernardini out of an Unbridleds Song dam, a homebred for Shadwell. <span style="color: red;"><b>didnt perform at all first out.</b></span> <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>Pletcher makes changes here,</b></span> going shorter and switching to the turf. As she is almost 4 and breeding season is coming up shortly, I suppose the goal is to see if they can get her a win before she is to be bred in the spring. </p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Whispering Pines</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Uncle Mo filly, out of a 300k winning dam who won 5 of 7 lifetime, this one <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>raced solid last time at Churchill, finishing 3rd with a big speed figure,</b></span> but she gave it up a bit in the deep stretch, and will cut back here, likely a wise move. She seems to be heading towards winning form and <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>the cutback seems like the winning move</b></span></p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>My Ashleigh</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>a homebred by Field Commission has started 3 times with two 2nds so far. She will stick to the dirt here but go a bit longer. She has a longshot chance if the faves dont show up, but <span style="color: red;"><b>her speed figures are just a shade short of the better ones.</b></span> However, <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">she can improve and they can bomb out,</span></b> as often happens with maidens, especially the blueblood types who havent made the races until late in their 3yo season.</p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Emma Rose</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>a homebred by Bernardini out of <span style="color: red;"><b>an Empire Maker dam</b></span>, she has made 4 starts so far with 2 fairly good, including the last one where she got 3rd and earned a high speed figure, and two not good, including the 2nd last where she had a gate incident and was trapped in the gate as the others raced away. She seemed none the worse for wear though last time. She <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>has sneaky good form and might be the price play here.</b></span> This will be her 3rd start off the shelf, and the 2nd if you discount the gate incident race. She will go shorter and come off the turf...exactly what she did for her first lifetime start here last winter. </p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Into Candy</i></b><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>a fts 3yo<span style="color: red;"><b> by Into Mischief</b></span> out of a Candy Ride dam, they paid 210k for her as a yearling. Another probably they are looking to get a win out of before the breeding season comes up and will test her here to see if she is worth carrying on with as a racehorse first.<span style="color: red;"><b> Her works are uninspiring to say the least</b></span>, but yet 3 of the track handicappers have her on top. I will listen to what they have to say, but Im <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>inclined to play against</b></span> her based on several variables, breeding, form, and price.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-43036613934006028232020-12-20T08:43:00.063-08:002020-12-20T11:39:38.003-08:00Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 20, 2020<p><span style="background-color: red;"><span style="color: white;"> Race 1</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 25k</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>5F </p><p>Summary The ML choices are pretty suspect as win candidates, although they are likely to be in the mix of the race and effect who can win this. Very good race to find a price who takes advantage of their flaws. Three fts in this group, who need to be watched closely as a fresh face likely plays in this pretty soft bunch.</p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Pugin</i></b> by Palace Malice, makes his 8th life start. He has been 2nd in his last two and the last start was at this meet. He seems to run alternating higher and then lower speed figures, which, if holds, means he will run poorer overall this time than last time. He tries sprining here, and he started his career out with three sprint tries, all on the dirt, at a higher level than this with also ran results. He is possible, but I would probably go to others before him. I suppose they are trying him sprinting on turf as he has not done that exact thing before, to see if they can get him over the hump or not.<span style="color: red;"><b><i> Early scratch. </i></b></span></p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Twirling Fire</i></b> by Twirling Candy, a horse who ran very high speed figures from his first life start right until he retired. His dam made one life start, a win, ran a huge speed figure, and then never ran again. This guy, 6 starts in, has run slower, consistent, mediocre speed figures and races, but he meets mostly similar today. He resembles the 1 horse in many respects but he will sprint again on the turf at the same price as last time when he was 3rd. He is 4-1 ML. I would use him if I could get 8-1, but otherwise use his spot on the ticket for something with better value.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Todaystheday</i></b> by Verrazano, he is the ML choice after making 3 life starts to this point. He gets that race office respect because he goes out for the current flavor of the month hot young trainer, and finishing 2nd in this class while doing exactly what he did last time after coming off the dirt and shortening up. However, he didnt win that start so while he will be a short price today, he isnt a lock. He will have to be seen. Some of the Verrazanos run, others develop a sour attitude and begin to regress as they go along from my experience. Attitude will be important for this one if you are going to accept the short price. His speed figures dont tower over the two inside him.</p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Nitro Time</i></b> by Munnings out of a Big Brown mare, he is a homebred making all the variable changes in his 3rd try at racing. Shipping, dropping, going shorter and getting on the turf. He needs a change as he ran a horrid speed figure last time that probably wouldnt win a 4 claimer at Mahoning or Fort Erie. He drops out of two MSW efforts, but its debatable if that is a drop as he wasnt even competitive last time. I guess you could argue that since he went to the lead and then caved in to finish 12th with that horrid speed figure that sprinting is a better option and dropping means he doesnt have to fend off better horses when he starts to tire. That is still in question. Being that he has a Big Brown dam, I will go on the theory he is a stopper and non trier when asked to fight for it, and pass on him. </p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Mindship Q</i></b> by Midshipman, who is by Unbridleds Song, he was an 8k yearling, has run 6 times, with 3 3rds and generally finishes on the edges. He is just the type of rat that steps up and wins races like this, without taking any special tote money. Watch him closely in the post parade to see if he looks live. If he is, he could surprise this bunch.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Valeroso</i></b> by Uncaptured, he has yet to make the ticket in 5 starts and his speed figures are consistently a cut lower than the contenders in here. He is hard to make on paper and would need something like unusual money to entice me to use him unless I see something else that I like.</p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Forty Flash</i></b> by Forty Grams, who is by Distorted Humor, has shown little to date but might slight improvement each start. He has room to improve in start 4. I will look him over to see if he looks good in the flesh. On paper he is still a ways away from winning form in this type of class. </p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>V. I. P. Who</i></b> a fts by Gone Astray, he is a homebred who shows only mediocre works, all on dirt, yet he debuts on turf. These types scare me as its possible they are hiding his ability to cash a big ticket. I will have to see him to make a proper call on him. On the fence as to whether to use him, as this race screams fts winner. </p><p>9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Old Man Mac </i></b>a fts by Exaggerator, out of a Heatseeker mare, Heatseeker by Giants Causeway, so he has a turf pedigree on the bottom side. He has not shown much speed to date in his 3 works and Id say he is likely out for experience and a test ride to see what they need to do with him going forward. Unless he takes unusual money, he is a pass for me, but watch for future plays. </p><p>10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Blame Charlie</i></b> by Adios Charlie, makes his 3rd life start, goes shorter and goes to the turf first time. He has room for improvement and a sharp veteran trainer in his corner. He has a longshot chance if he can improve a bit more and the changes help him. He could be the one in this group. The trainer is also the owner and the breeder of this one, so he has had him since day one. He also trained the dam, who made 10 starts with 2 2nds but never won a race.</p><p>11<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Rub My Belly</i></b> a fts by Point of Entry, he shows decent enough 4f works to suggest he can contend for the lead early. However, he has an outside post and thus, he is in for a long trip. One to watch but hard to like today based on his draw and that he has never raced before. He easily could be stacked up 8 high before they get to the turn and never see the fence.</p><p>12<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Deputy Indy</i></b> by Prospective, who is by Malibu Moon, thus he is more likely to want to go long, he is a homebred making his 4th life start. Post 12 in a sprint will not help his chances, which were slim to begin with. He is not impossible off his last speed figure, if, he sits out of it, they battle hard and he swings around them all. That is a lot ot ask of a cheap maiden who has yet to finish in the top 3 from post 12, so I am inclined to not use him. </p><p><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">Race 3</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">Maiden Special Weight</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>5F </p><p>Summary Five fts and one sts. As usual, it makes for tough handicapping. Have to see them to see who is mature and who is acting like a green colt. Some very fast types who are likely to send and battle. </p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Chieficia</i></b> fts by Into Mischief, was bought back by his owners as a yearling for 145k, then sold off for 40k as a 2yo in training. That is not a good sign. His dam was not much of a racehorse, His works to date do not insprire confidence that he can match up with this type of company. He will have to be seen. </p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Mutaraafeq</i></b> fts by Frosted, who has sired some ready to go runners around Gulfstream this year. This one has a Rahy dam, so bred for the turf. He is a homebred for Shadwell and Pletcher, so he is likely to take heavy money on debut. He hasnt wowed in workouts, but Pletcher generally doesnt start them until they are ready, so that is something to consider. The dam made 9 life starts and never won a race.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Rockstar Ro</i></b> by Gemologist, a 4 time starter already ships in from Kentucky with good speed figures and decent results, but meets possibly a very tough and well meant crew here. Not impossible, but he will have to bring his A game and a bit more to get over the hump with these. HIs dam won 2 races and 200k while chasing some stakes level company, but like her son, finished 2nd and 3rd a lot more than won. That has to be considered. I am sure he will break his maiden, just not sure it is in this tough spot. He will go back to the turf and shorten back to 5f, which is how he started at Indiana when he was 3rd then, against likely a much easier group than these though.</p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Lucky Law</i></b> an Irish bred by No Nay Never who goes out fts for Biancone, he showed impressive works when he was sold as a 2yo in training in Europe and shipped here to race. He shows 2 bullet works preparing for the debut. He will have to be seen, but he is race ready on the speed angle where some of these might be a few away. He is probably the post time favorite, in say 9-5 range. </p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Shaftesbury</i></b> a fts by Uncle Mo who is another for Pletcher in this race. His dam was a 4 time winner by Lemon Drop Kid. Repole paid 675k for him as a big ticket yearling, but to a guy like that, he doesnt even blink when he signs those tickets. Generally, his works have been slow relative to the type he has to run against here, but being that he has a Lemon Drop Kid dam, he is probably being pointed for longer races next year, and this is just the start for him. I dont prefer him today in a sprint where he simply might be fast enough or close enough to win the race.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>No Que No</i></b> sts by More Than Ready, out of a Broken Vow dam, a homebred who ran okay on debut, getting 3rd, and switches to turf for his 2nd start and cuts back a shade. While he isnt technically dropping in class, he meets very legit high end types here and that wouldnt be said about the first group he met, which was also a short field. I think he is overmatched on the win front, just unlucky he caught such a tough field this time. He does show very fast 3f works, so likely to seek the lead and effect the outcome. If many of the young prospects bomb out, he isnt impossible to be there if he gets ahead early. </p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Midnight Tequila</i></b> a 4 time starter already by Justin Phillip, he moves up from maiden claimers to meet this tough legit MSW group. He is hard to like based on that and his trainer runs a lot of impossible longshots as a rule. Pass and watch for his likely return to claimers.</p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Sanctified</i></b> fts by Point of Entry is a homebred out of a Broken Vow dam. He shows blistering works at 3f and generally has trained well. He is likely to try and wire this bunch. Can he hold his speed at 5f, that is the question. </p><p><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Race 4</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #bf9000;">MDN CLM 20k</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>6F</p><p>Summary Two clear favorites who look good on paper with the variables of change considered, but are beatable enough by a few in here who look like they have a legit chance to step up. </p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><i><b>Water Wizard</b></i> by Flashstorm, who is by Storm Cat, has started 13 times with 2 2nd place finishes to show for her owner, trainer and breeder. He certainly is patient, I will give him that. She will go longer here and try the dirt again. Hard to like on paper and her winless record, but I suppose these types win races like this every now and then if you want to take a flyer on a bomb like her.</p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Gilded Lady</i></b> by Tapiture, goes for Cibelli, shipping in with the rest of her barn from Monmouth and not racing since late August. She will go longer for her 4th life start. She dropped from MSW to claiming last time, vastly improved her speed rating and nabbed 2nd. Obviously, she is a big contender here. Tapiture get can be difficult sometimes, so that is something to watch for. Otherwise, she is a player with this crew. Cibelli has them ready when they race, layoff or not. She tried MSW here last winter, but is more reasonably spotted this time. Cibelli races to win, and that is where this one fits.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Miss Uncaptured</i></b> by Uncaptured, a 6 time starter, raced twice at GPW in 2018, then went to Laurel for 3 starts and was no good, then off more than a year when she resurfaced at GPW last time in October, and didnt run hardly at all, 7th now in her last 3 starts. She has worked 3 times since but nothing spectacular. I cant make her at all and will have to see some progress for future plays. They have kept her around all this time. They must see something the rest of us dont. I guess her 2nd place finish at MSW two years ago gives them hope she can return to that eventually. </p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Theycallmeprincess</i></b> by Currency Swap who is by High Cotton, is a 4yo 2nd time starter who has been off more than a year. She debuted 3rd in a MSW about 18 months ago. High Cotton throws a lot of lame ones. So, she might fit that mold. She will have to be seen. Her 4 works prepping for the return are too slow to think she does much today. Lets see her and make a call for later races if she makes it to another start this meet. </p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Uptown Queen</i></b> by Big Drama, a homebred sts for Fawkes, who trains a lot of Big Drama foals, and i think trained him during his racing career. She was 2nd on debut and goes longer here. She looks like a major player. As a sts who is almost 4, I want to see her parade to see how she handled the wear and tear of an actual race the first time. If she passes that test, she is one to overweight on the tickets. </p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Good Shabbos</i></b> by Munnings, an 8 time starter who goes out for Breen, she has been 2nd or 3rd 7 out of 8 starts, but 3rd and 4th in her last two, all MSW races, and so, wanting to get her over the hump, they dive into a claimer here. Will that do the trick. I dont know. Breen is sharp, so I am not likely to go against his opinion as to where she fits to win the race. She was a 190k yearling and in for 20k today, so clearly she has not panned out and they are about to cut bait with her today, as she is a likely claim. Knowing that, I suspect they think they have picked the right level to win with her on the way out the barn door for good. </p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Chattin With Jenny</i></b> by Car Talk, an Irish bred son of Bernardini out of a Deputy Minister dam, she is a Washington bred who goes for a trainer who has a lot of horses that dont win, and she fits that bill at 0 for 17 and a week short of her 6th birthday. They write a 12.5 claimer and at best, she should at least try that bunch. Toss. </p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>You're the Best</i></b> by Malibu Moon, a 6 time starter who is the 2nd ML choice, goes for Barboza, will drop in class and go shorter. In her last 2 she has dropped out of MSW into claimers, gotten 2nd and 3rd and goes lower today. That all makes sense. Her speed figures are slightly higher than the rest of the field as a whole, and she is fairly consistent about it. Likely the one to beat. </p><p>9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Comp'd</i></b> a fts, a homebred by Competitive Edge he shows ok enough works to compete with this bunch, and thus, I would use her as a protection add. Post 9 for a fts is an issue though if others with more experience want the lead more than she does. </p><p>10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Addi</i></b> a 130k yearling by Wicked Strong with 4 starts under her belt, she will ship in, drop in class and change surface here after showing so so speed and overall finishes. Another who is possible off all the changes in a race where something is going to respond to that and many will just run the same. She has been off since April and makes her first start at Gulfstream. </p><p><span style="background-color: #ffa400;">Race 7</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #bf9000;"><span style="color: white;">Maiden Special Weight</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>7F</p><p>Summary Very tough race of green horses that have super high connections and aspirations but likely not motivated to try and win today. Follow the board if anything to find one who might be live and interested today. Otherwise, a race to watch closely for future plays. </p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Tayet</i></b> a sts by Cairo Prince out of a Street Cry dam who they paid 150k for as a yearling, she ships in from Churchill where she was 7th on debut and ran an ok speed figure to suggest start two might show some improvement. She was on the lead that day but gave it up in the stretch. Perhaps they will change tactics here. </p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Make Me Laugh</i></b> a 185k yearling by Distorted Humor out of an Unbridleds song dam, makes her 3rd life start, tried the grass last time and went longer, but now goes back to the dirt and shortens up a bit. She has been 4th twice with similar speed figures and it looks as if they are looking to find the right mix of distance and surface, while maintaining her at the MSW level for now. Based on that, maybe they have it right today and she is a player here if they do.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Zaajel</i></b> a fts by Street Sense, a homebred for Shadwell, and Pletcher, she showed high speed in early November when training, was not race, perhaps not one for the GPW surface, then eased back to top speed with her last workout before this engagement. Lets see how she looks in the ring and parading. She looks very viable first out if she passes those tests. </p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Bonnie's the Best</i></b> a fts by Distorted Humor, her mother raced 6 times but did not win a race. She was a 95k yearling purchase. Now owned by the trainer but not certain if he paid up then or bought her later. In any event, she will start out here in MSW, showed a bullet 3f workout when she first started working, and has worked longer and evenly going forward off that although not as quick. I suspect she is ready but wont be pushed too hard today. Pass and watch. </p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Cajole</i></b> by Flatter, a 3 time starter already who ships from Laurel and shortens up a bit today, she has 2 2nds from those 3 starts to date. She will have to improve her speed rating to take these down, but since they are shortening her up after starting out short and going longer, they must think that is where she does her best work. Shot. </p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Breehazel</i></b> a fts by Sano, by Distorted Humor. She has worked steady, but slow, for this group as a whole. I will watch her today to see if they are just saving it for the race or she will need a class adjustment to be viable and where that likely is. </p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Mail Order</i></b> by Liams Map, a fts for Mott, who is known not to have is fts ready to win when they debut. She was a 300k yearling and worked evenly so far. I will watch and pass for today.</p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Unbridled d'Oro</i></b> a fts by Medaglia Doro, a homebred for Fipke, trained by Pletcher. She is out of a legit Grade 1 winner but has been brought to the race seemingly not as sharpened up as she might have been, suggesting the long game is the big stakes next spring and summer. Doesnt mean she doesnt have enough talent to take these down anyway, but a short price wouldnt be in order in my opinion. She is the lukewarm ML choice. </p><p>9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Shannon</i></b> by Nyquist a Derby winner by Uncle Mo, the 2nd starter in the field for trainer Matz, ships in from Laurel and going longer for her 2nd lifetime start. She was a 205k yearling, then a 290k 2yo in training purchase. She was 4th in that start at Laurel and ran a speed figure that plays with this bunch if she goes forward and does a shade better. She draws outside for her second straight start. If she does okay here and draws better next time, she could be a price play then. She is up against it with the post today when she isnt the best on paper to begin with. </p><p>10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Mission Up</i></b> a fts on the dirt by Noble Mission, suggesting this is a test ride for when she gets on turf which is her breeding suggestion. She is a homebred who has worked steadily, but much slower than the group she meets as a whole. Pass and watch today. </p><p>In case you wondered.</p><p>Good Shabos</p><p>Cool Horse Names</p><p>Theycallmeprincess</p><p>Rub My Belly</p><p>Topo Grigio</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-83378979845871446792020-12-19T09:44:00.013-08:002020-12-19T13:06:09.679-08:00Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 19, 2020<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: red;"><span style="color: white;"> Race 1</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 20k</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>7 1/2F</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summary. A mixed bag with about half no chance shots while the other half all have reasons to step up, but arent certain to do so. Likely a good race to get a price on something that takes unusual money and/or looks great parading and warming up. Tough race to make just one horse on paper, which makes it a good chance to make money if you can pick 3 or 4 price horses and get one of them to come through.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Gran Patron</i></b> by Poseidons Warrior, who is by Speightstown, and like him, throws many who are very fast for as long as they can last, and somewhat tough relatively speaking if they get their own way, this one makes his 4th life start and 2nd of this meet, and has showed little to date in terms of overall speed. He will go longer today and try the turf for the first time. He will be a big longshot and actually rises in class slightly to get on the turf. I suppose they are just trying him out to see if the distance and surface change will help. I will wait to see if they do. Looks like wild stabs in the dark to me and a class adjustment to Tampa is the more likely elixer he will need to be competitive. <b><i><span style="color: red;">He was an early scratch. </span></i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Capture the Crown</i></b> by Uncaptured, makes his 5th life start, the 3rd this year after a long gap of more than a year after his first two starts last year. He will go shorter here, but as his speed overall so far has been subpar, even for a group like this, and the best he has managed is 7th in his debut last year, and two 9ths in his return this year, I can't use him without seeing something positive first. Massive longshot.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Rey de Ligas</i></b> bred in Chile but not raced there, has had two tries at this circuit, neither impressive. He was 3rd of 4 in a MSW taken off the turf which decimated the field size, the 4th one was no runner at all, the top 2 distanced this guy. He followed that up with a 4th place finish last time, and a much higher speed figure which certainly plays with this bunch. That was on the turf, and he comes back on that surface today and goes longer, obviously his intended surface and distance. His trainer seems to get them to run and thus, he is a player in here. He also cuts his tag from 35k to 20k. I suspect that based on his breeding, he is going to try and wire them. I'm not certain he can get the entire distance, but he will likely try. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Treasure Run</i></b> by Treasure Beach, so bred for the turf, has had 13 tries and has yet to make the ticket, while running so so speed figures for this type of group. He will cut back slightly here. His trainer is a very low percentage winner, but he does occasionally bring in some crazy longshots in races like this. That has to be considered in a field like this of cheap horses.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Call Bros</i></b> by Sky Mesa is a homebred making his 8th start and is the ML favorite. He has several factors in his favor, being that he gets Paco Lopez, has been 2nd and 3rd in his last two and his speed figures are consistently faster than most of these. Yet, he is a 7 time maiden, so, like many Sky Mesa's, he knows how to get beat near the line when he should not. One might argue he could earn a good buck this meet by being 2nd 3 times and then waiting to break his maiden near the end of the meet when the big players go elsewhere so he is viable at the next level against the locals next summer in short fields filled with pretenders. One could argue that. i will be that one to argue that. Take note that he ran an unbelievable speed figure in his first lifetime start, then a horrid one in his 2nd start, and since, they have kept him even, but not good enough to graduate. That one bad effort was his only try on dirt, so he is one dimensional as well, just another reason to keep him the bridesmaid a while longer.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Realtor Danny D</i></b> by Big Drama, a late starting 3yo this year, making his 2nd start, after debuting this year at the end of the GPW meet after racing 3 times last year then shutting down almost a year. This will be his 5th life start, and he showed some promise before shut down. Is he ready to pop today? That's the question, as his previous speed would likely make him a major player here. Big Drama's seem to just pop at odds after a few mediocre starts and if he follows that pattern, today or next time is likely the time to play for that. He sprinted last time for 12.5k, but goes much longer today and jacks his claiming tag up to 20k, so his price will be good if you are playing him. I want to see how he appears in the flesh, but he is a useful add if you are going against CallBros. He has enough speed to beat him if he is fit and ready. He was a short price last time on his return and while 8th, he wasnt beat a long way. Watch the betting pattern on him. He gets Panici, who brings in a lot of longshots like this.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Jupiter Blues</i></b> by Astrology, who is by A P Indy, has been off more than a year, and goes for his trainer owner who brings in some crazy longshots you dont see coming. This one will drop from 50k last year and start out at 20k, going on the turf, which was the intention last year but the race was taken off the turf, he went to the lead as a big longshot, then backed away sharply enough to get a 0 speed figure, and now retools a year later. One to look at is he is yet another in this race who could turn the car around just like that and get off at the win exit. Or he could be way up the track. He is just that type. He will be <span style="color: red;">a first time gelding today</span> on his return. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Sierra Cat</i></b> a 5yo by Factum, who is by Storm Cat and was a European runner imported here but did no good at all and only made 23k in his life, this one makes only his 4th life start for a trainer I dont know at all. He is a homebred who only started his career this year, so something probably happened when he was younger training down. He shows nothing so far to indicate he can run with the better ones in here. I have to see something positive. Lets see him compete and then he can be considered. If he blows up the tote board today at 80-1, I will miss the party this time.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Big Perm</i></b> by Noble Mission, so bred for the turf, and thus he has been scratched a lot this summer and fall because of all the off the turf racing. This will be his second start of the meet, so he comes back on a two week rotation, got slightly shorter after finishing 3rd last time for this claiming tag. Clearly the connections feel they have a beat on him. He is a decent mid level claiming horse at about a mile on the turf. He raced at Monmouth all summer before shipping here and being scratched out many times, and was forced onto the dirt a few times there. Last time he got what he wanted, and produced his best life speed figure by far, one that blows this field away if he can duplicate that. As a 7 time maiden, that is in question, but just off his last race, he is the likely favorite or co favorite. Hard not to use him, but I wouldn't take a very short price. Noble Missions seem to lack a little grit in the stretch from my experience, even though they are fast and legit otherwise. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Jealous Eyes</i></b> by Will Take Charge goes shorter here, after shipping in last time from Keeneland and getting a new trainer for the same owner. That was a huge class drop but this time he stays at the same class level for a sharp trainer who bring in quite a few price winners as she tinkers with ones just like this. He took quite a bit of money last time, being a 10-1 ML but going off at 5-1 with one late hit, but ending up 9th nonetheless. He comes back on two weeks this time and keeps the same jockey, who is a high end jockey with this type of horse. While 9th, his speed figure is good enough to beat most of these if not all of them. He is a price option if he takes less money this time due to the finish last time. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">11<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Future Prince</i></b> by Amiras Prince,who is a European turf bred but low profile type, and has sired a few okay runners, this one makes start number 9 and will be a massive longshot. He has yet to make the top 4 in his career, 7th in his last 4 starts, and gets the outside post this time on top of that. He switches from sprint to route here but stays on turf. I can't see him off the current variables.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">Race 3</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #bf9000;">MDN CLM 16k</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>6F</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summary. Several who are capable, but inconsistent and may or may not show up. That kind of cheap maiden claimer race. Wouldn't be afraid to take a price or a flyer one of the others if they gave me reason to do that. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Pa Encima</i></b> a fts by Bodemeister, didnt sell well as a yearling and shows so so ok mediocre works, thus debuts for 16k and will have to be seen. Likely a watch, wait and pass today.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Cobb</i></b> by Brethren, an Arindel homebred who gets a new trainer today. He got 2nd last time in his 7th lifetime start, and being a 2yo who started the first week of May, has been going a long time. He has suspect variables. He figures on paper, but he did last time too when he didnt get it done at 2-1. He looks like a good one to go against if he is the post time fave. They have given up the MSW chase, but he still arrives a maiden after two tries at claimers. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>True Identity</i></b> by Commissioner, makes start number 7 for his trainer owner and his second of the meet. He will go shorter here and perhaps that will help as his speed figures are less than inspiring. He shows a 2nd and 3rd with better speed figures in the previous two. I guess he is possible if he turns it around and the distance cut back helps him finish. Shot.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Exxtop</i></b> by Exagerrator, a homebred makes his 4th life start. He comes off two 2nd place finishes with similar speed figures which play with this bunch. Obviously a logical paper contender. Likely many in here, he will go slightly shorter. His trainer is high percentage. If he passes the walking ring and post parade inspection, he is tough to go against at a short price.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Sidarth</i></b> by Temple City, who sires a lot of good turf runners, but seems to do okay enough with dirt runners, runs for the 5th shortens up for the 2nd consecutive race and has run okay overall, but not a wow type. His best speed figure, two back when he finished 2nd would do with these. Much like many in here, whomever shows up today and has the better day is the probable winner. Many of these are variable in terms of when they show up or dont. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Master of Disaster</i></b> by Khozan, another making start 5, making no change in terms of variables, runs about the same speed figures as the others and was 2nd two back. Very similar to the one above. He has a longshot jockey and a trainer who brought in a longshot bomb the other day. Value play on all that, but not one you would have confidence in as a single horse to play by himself in this race. In his favor is that he raced his first two races at MSW, and he clearly is not that quality, so this is really his 3rd start where he can be considered as a viable option, and thus, he is one 2nd out of 2 legit starts, while others have had more chances with these types. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Royal Meeting</i></b> by Uncaptured, makes his 6th life start. He also has a Rahy dam, which is a strike against him in my book as he tends to stamp them as hangers. He has a similar profile to the two above, same amount of starts, 2nd two back, lots of chances but cant seal the deal, so so claimer type. Based on his breeding, he is the one I would toss of that trio.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Jr Speed</i></b> a sts by Speightster, goes longer and drops in class, and thus, he has promise relative to some of the others in this race, and goes for a trainer who can make them go. He will need to improve, but he has room to and bears watching in the post parade and on the betting board. That will decide for me if he is to be used as one of many in here. He sold for 85k as a yearling, but was dumped off for 12k as a 2yo. That isnt good, but he is in for 16k, so maybe he has found the sweet spot. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Little Dude</i></b> by Tapiture out of a Harlans Holiday dam, he has hang written all over him. Also a very similar profile to some above, 5 starts, mediocre results, goes slightly shorter here, and similar, inconsistent speed figures. I suppose he is a protection add, but terrible value if he goes off 4-1 or less.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Captain Kirk</i></b> a fts by Conveyance, who is by Indian Charlie out of a Holy Bull dam, won some minor stakes and was 15th in the Derby. He will have to be seen to assess what he can do. He shows a fast and improved work two weeks ago. If he takes money based on that, he is one to add in a minor way on the chance he has more and many of these revert to the bad day part of their Sybil personality. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">11<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Globaltroublecoco</i></b> by Global Response who is by A P Indy out of an Elusive Quality dam, shows many of the bad attitude traits of Elusive Quality and in fact has caused trouble in many races, dumping her rider last time. 7 starts, no top 3 finishes and a bad post. She can consider herself tossed. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Race 4</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 25k</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>1m</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summary. This race was not handicapped as I didnt have enough time to get to it. A good lesson. If you cant do it right, just pass the race. There will always be more races but if you bet races you shouldn't and lose, you have to win that money back to just get even, which makes no sense. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #cccccc;">Race 11</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">Maiden Special Weight</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>1m</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summary. 10 horse field, 4 first time starters with top pedigrees and connections, and the balance are split between 2nd time starters and an equal amount with slightly more starts, all shippers and many changing distance and three changing surface. A tough one that mostly you will need to see them on the track to delete a few and make the race playable if you can go against the favorite. That is probably going to be the 4th time starter from the outside going for Pletcher with a hall of fame jockey on top. Likely to be overbet, but not for sure one to go against. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Girl Dad</i></b> by Malibu Moon and purchased for 125k at the 2yo in training sale in March, the most experienced of the bunch with 4 starts under his belt, and two on the board finishes out of those 4 starts. He ships in from New York, 3 weeks ago being 2nd there and 3rd before that. He has progressed nicely and will cut back to a mile today. Obvious contender who might bring a decent price due to the high profile of many in here. He worked a light trip last Saturday, similar to how he prepped for his last start to keep him fit for this race. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Kentucky Pharoah</i></b> by American Pharoah, makes his 3rd start as a homebred for Calumet. His dam won a million bucks and a couple of nice high end stakes in Canada, and placed in many others. He seems to be progressing nicely as he upped his speed figure in start 2 in Kentucky and now winters down here, I'm sure in the hope he is a Florida Derby type or better. Lets see what he can do in this seemingly tough and deep field. Some of the A Pharoah's are goofs, bad actors and dont run straight, so that is something to look for. Not all though. He throws a wide variety of types. His dam has a turf pedigree and he gets on the turf for the first time today. That is something to consider.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>He'spuregold</i></b> by Vancouver, an Aussie bred who has two in this race, This guy has a very strong Turf pedigree and is a homebred sent out by top trainer Nihei, coming off a 3rd in the debut in Kentucky with an impressive speed figure for a fts. He will come right back, same distance and surface while shipping for the winter. Big shot on paper. Big ML and he might slip through the cracks at the window if that ML holds. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Ultimate Gift</i></b> a fts by Pioneerof The Nile, one of two starters in this race for Pletcher, and very high end connections who paid 350k for him, but has not shown great speed training so far, not relative to many of these. 4-1 ML, but likely to go off closer to 8-1 or even a bit higher. I'm likely to exclude him and include the 4 in his place.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Not Stormy</i></b> a sts by Got Stormy who sold for 11k as a yearling, so obviously, he is the low profile horse in this bunch. There might be times this winter if he sticks around he catches much softer fields than he meets here, but today is not that day. He ships in from Belmont, his only start in October and goes longer here, off a speed figure that isnt anywhere near the ballpark with this bunch to hit the ticket, he would have to show vast improvement to be competitive. I will pass on him today and watch him for a better spot to see if he is the type that will do that day or a bad favorite on maybe a class drop.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Advanced Placement</i></b> by Point of Entry, fts who shows mediocre works at best, he will have to be seen. Off those works and his pedigree, he is overmatched here. Being a homebred, I'm sure the long game is in play here and he could be 3 starts away from being a win candidate.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Van Dusen</i></b> a fts by Vancouver, this guy has been sold 3 times, as a weanling, then again for a small or no profit at 115k as a yearling, then sold off for 20k as a 2yo. None of that is encouraging. In spite of all that, he has worked well prepping for these and a bullet sharp 3f workout on Sunday, yet he will go long to start his career. <b><i><span style="color: red;">Seems like a prep race</span></i></b> for a try in a turf sprint, for possibly a 32k claiming tag down the road. He will be watched today with that in mind.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Public Information</i></b> a sts for Chad Brown by Into Mischief and his top owner, his dam was 2nd in her debut, then won the next start in a MSW, so she was ready early then only made 4 more life starts, chasing stakes horses and being a mid pack type. The connections paid 400k for him based on his pedigree I would think and he switches to turf and goes longer after finishing 8th at Keeneland in his debut. He is the 3-1 ML here and if he were to go off as favorite, he would be a bad favorite, win or lose. HIs speed figure in race 1 doesnt stack up with many of these. He will simply be bet on his sale price and connections. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Courageously</i></b> a fts for Casse and Oxley who they paid 625k for as a yearling. He is by Quality Road. His dam by Empire Maker made 200k, raced a long time and won some minor stakes at Charles Town and Ellis Park. He could be anything, but right now, he is just a yearling with a big ticket hanging over his head. His works leading up to this start are fast enough to suggest he can compete if he is mature enough to do that. Lets see how he looks and acts pre race. On the fence on him.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">11<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Munqad</i></b> by War Front, a homebred and Pletcher's other one in here, will accept the outer post and makes start 4. He seems on the edges so far, not horrible though, and ships in from Keeneland. Pletcher sometimes takes his time with the big time homebred types, as he knows those owners will wait if the horse is projected to be worth it. Thus, he hasnt tagged him yet, he will try him shorter and on turf today. Wide open race and he is just another who will have to step up to beat what looks like a deep and tough crew of prospects.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Cool horse names</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Shes One Mad Momma</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Diamond Oops</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-88454355945784715932020-12-18T08:40:00.001-08:002020-12-18T11:46:10.470-08:00Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 18, 2020<p> <span style="background-color: red; color: white;">Race 1</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 35</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>7 1/2F</p><p>Summary. There are several good options here, with many fts of which one is going to be the likely favorite off suspect workouts for a top trainer who, through no fault of his own, has his horses overbet most of the time. A good race to go deep and cover all bases. <b>No shippers but a lot of class droppers.</b></p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Sip'n Dip</i></b> a fts by Wicked Tune, who is by Cocordes Tune, and was a decent racehorse, is a homebred who has worked just okay and likely needs a start or two to get used to racing. Lets see how she stacks up for 35k. Breaking from the inside is also a problem for a young inexperienced filly like this.</p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Dreaming of Audrey</i></b> a homebred sts by Field Commission, who is by Service Stripe, who is by Deputy Minister makes her 2nd start and drops out of MSW. She took no money first out and her longshot jockey sticks here on the class drop. She was the longest shot on the board that day, off last, made a late run in the stretch but couldnt get to the top pack. Clearly, with more experience and easier competition, she should be a player in with these.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Lullula</i></b> a fts by Flintshire, so bred for the turf. She shows some very fast works, and if she can run farther in a race like this and carry that, which her sire was known for, she is a big player. She will have to be seen though for manners and composure.</p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>La Dame</i></b> a fts by Karakontie, who is by Bernstien and was good right off the bat, this one was bred by Marylou Whitney, has worked every week for 2 months and shows steady, unspectacular speed. Perhaps she is a grinding type that does well going longer. Tote money likely tells the tale of her chances today. She blistered 3f early in her training, but they chose to aim her longer and not sprint, thus you would expect she has one burst late if she is in striking distance. Shot.</p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Katiesdreamgirl</i></b> by Young Brian, a son of Hard Spun who made one lifetime start, a win, then disappeared after they turned down 500k for him as a 2yo. This one makes her 4th lifetime start, and if she shows her sires speed, which was very good in that one and only start, she can be a player here. She improved slightly on that from start 2 to 3, and got 2nd then. She will drop in class here from 40k to 35k and go shorter and makes her 2nd start on turf. The kind of fine tune adjustments you would expect from a sharp trainer like Nicks. She has been off since just before Labor Day, and worked steady and even suggesting she is already fit enough that she doesnt need to be drilled. Due to her sires short career and her layoff, she will have to be seen to make sure its not some soreness or soundness issue. If not, she is a top contender with a lot of fts who lack her experience and form.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Goodbye Carolina</i></b> a fts by Uncle Vinny, who is by Uncle Mo and was a so so racehorse making 225k, broke his maiden in his first start and then won the Sanford at 2, but didnt really go forward after that. This filly is a homebred who shows two very unimpressive works so far. She will have to be seen, but on paper looks like a longshot with a lot of work to do to become a viable racehorse.</p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Short Circuit</i></b> by Street Boss, a sts who drops in class and goes longer. Her dam was unraced, but she has had two turf winners from her two foals She certainly looked the part in the post parade and took heavy money along the entire cycle. She broke okay, but was pinballed hard and squeezed, and was well back.She made some decent attempts to catch up, then carried wide and bumped a shade in the turn, and again in the stretch, but was even or flat late. The type of effort to go forward off of and if her 12-1 ML is close to what you get today, she is good value 2nd out on the class drop.</p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Smarty Queen</i></b> by Honor Code, who was a late runner and a good one when he did that, and this filly out of a Hard Spun dam, makes her 3rd life start. She improved her speed figure from start 1 to 2 and its a bit better than the other contenders who have run before in this race. Hence, she is the top pick of most of the track handicappers. She was 2nd going for 40k last time at 19-1, but you wont see those odds today, and she cuts back slightly. She took some money hits that day, indicating somone or many thought she was going to outrun her post time odds, which she did. She paraded on her toes, but very managable, loaded well, broke sharp and to the lead, held that lead the entire way while being pressured by another who faded, but was picked up deep stretch by one who tripped out. As she cuts back today, it looks as though while that is a small cutback, its where she seems to lose some energy, so a wise move by an old pro trainer. Big chance today.</p><p>9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>My Miss Miracle</i></b> a fts for Pletcher who gets Saez, she was a 190k yearling by Kantharos out of a million dollar winning dam, and thus, the connections dont get any higher end than this one. Because of that, she is the ML choice and will likely go off in the 2-1 range as the chalk. She has worked just okay along the way, but her last two from the gate were not very good strictly on time. She will have to be seen, but likely bad value as a favorite if that is where she lands.</p><p>10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Tequa</i></b> by Dialed In, already a 6 time starter in a field with a lot of firsters, many sts and a few with slightly more expience, has had her chances. However all of those chances were at MSW, and they abort that today, along with putting her on the turf again, for which she was 2nd going 5f on debut and 5th going a mile, both at MSW. Since it rained off many turf races the last couple of months, she was forced onto the dirt, and now she gets back on the intended surface, goes slightly shorter and uses the class drop angle. All of that will get her some tote money, and the issue is probably she has some leavers inside her and she has an outer post. That should keep the price high enough to make her a value use in this spot. Her first life race on the turf produced a speed figure far above this entire field to date. She is capable if things go her way.</p><p>11<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Rouway</i></b> a fts by Gone Astray, a homebred with 2 okay works but starts from an outer post and is 30-1 ML. Unless she takes unusual money here, I will wait and watch one from her. Her dam wasnt a great money earner, but showed high speed ratings relative to a group like this. She has potential if she can run like that, likely next time though.</p><p>12<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Honorary Guest</i></b> a sts by Tapizar and out of a <b><i>Giants Causeway dam</i></b>, will get the far outside post. Top trainer Breen drops her in class, switches her to turf and asks her to go longer here for high end owners the West's. I'd say he is building to a possible win, but not in this spot. She isn't impossible, but up against it to take the entire field down from this starting spot when there are many options inside of her. </p><p><span style="background-color: white;">Race 2</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #bf9000;">MDN CLM 12.5</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>1m</p><p>Summary. Many who have had a lot of chances, and one who hasnt who will be a heavy favorite shipping in. If that one bombs out, and he looks like a ticking time bomb, anything else pays well and some longer than others who could be considered value relatively speaking.</p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Majority Rules</i></b> a 4yo by Tiznow, makes start number 9. He seemed to have some promise last year, when he ran 2 good races at Saratoga and Belmont, high speed figure races where he was 2nd, then tailed off the next time and missed almost a year when he showed up at Keeneland and ran poorly, Then he shipped to Florida, started to pick it up again, but his last two have been bad. This will be his 2nd start for new connections and they raise him up slightly in class, although he has beaten far better before when he runs to his ability and potential. Last time, for the new connections, he paraded ok, loaded well, broke slow but not bad, was way back, did little and was well back of the top 3, splitting horses late to just nab 4th with a very suspect group. He's not hopeless in a field like this, but he will have to step it back up.</p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Elbrus</i></b> by Malibu Moon, was a 200k yearling then dumped off for 15k at a 2yo sale. That says a lot about how he was training down. In start number 5 last time, he tried the turf, but to no avail as he was the same as always, a plodding grinder who runs mid pack and does little. Back to dirt today. Going slightly longer. He is probably good for 4th or 5th money again, but cant be recommended for better than that. </p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Old Main</i></b> by Lookin At Lucky, also makes start number 6. He is the 2nd ML choice and played that way by most of the track handicappers. He comes out of the same race as the 1 horse, but this guy was a solid 2nd, while not a threat to the easy winner, and has decent steady form. He is possible if the chalk doesnt produce. Hopefully his price stays up there on the overbet of the favorite.</p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Express Boy</i></b> by <b><span style="color: red;">Orb</span></b>, is a 13 time loser going longer. I cant see him in this field with viable options. Acacia takes him on top and I will listen to her reasons to see if she can sway me. His two best speed figures in the summer beat this bunch, but that was 5 bad starts ago now. </p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Meteorito</i></b> by Gone Astray, makes start number 4, goes longer and comes off the turf. He has two 9ths and a 4th, is 30-1 ML, and unless he takes unusual money or wows me in the post parade, I cant see him. He was off an entire year before his last start, so perhaps you could argue he wasnt fit yet. That's some kind of bullshit reason I guess. Bullshit excuse reason horses sometimes win races like this. He was cold on the board then. If he were to take some kind of unusual money here, I could be tempted to add him on the protection angle.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Ultraconfident</i></b> by Cross Traffic, has seen the gate 12 times thus far. He has one 3rd place finish out of all that in his 2nd life start. If I was crossing traffic riding him, I wouldnt feel very confident he would get me safely to the sidewalk in time. He is another going longer and coming off the turf and is 30-1 in the hopes that something from the kitchen sink approach shakes him into being a viable racehorse before he heads for a 4 claimer at Charlestown at the end of this meet .....or sooner. His last 2 speed figures wouldnt get him on the high 5 with this bunch.</p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>I Got a Secret</i></b> by Strong Mandate, who is by Tiznow out of a Deputy Minister dam, is a 2nd time starter shipping in from Belmont and dropping, no diving from 40k to 12.5k rather quickly in his career. Deputy Ministers are tough customers like he was, but also prone to the chronic lameness he had. This one will have to be seen to see which of those he most resembles. He should blow this group away, and 2-5 at post time is not out of the question. And questions this one certainly has. The question is what secret is the actual fact.......overally lame and going to detoriorate, or diving down to smoke this bunch before that happens. That is the call that has to be made her and what this race hinges on. Generally, in my experience, horses that debut for 40k and get 3rd dont drop in value by 70 percent unless their racing days are numbered. Doesnt mean he cant win, but it means he is no cinch. His dam broke her maiden at Gulfstream on the extreme class drop, then ended her career shortly after with two claiming wins at Turfway and was bred shortly after. Did this guy drop just in time too?</p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Liquid Louie</i></b> by Old Forester, an ontario bred who makes start number 10 for a trainer who ships here every winter, drops, changes surfaces and will go shorter as the 3rd ML choice. In reality, he ran for 14k Canadian last time, which is less than 12.5 American. But he did get 4th and 2nd before that. He is possible if the fave totally bombs out and the others dont step up. He is an attrition add.</p><p><span style="background-color: #ffa400;">Race 7</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #bf9000;">Maiden Special Weight</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>1m</p><p>Summary. Short field, but deep. Post parade and tote betting will give indications if this race is a pass or play. Likely a pass on first glance. </p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Well Done West</i></b> is a sts by Awesome Again. He ships in from Keeneland for trainer Gargan, goes longer and moves up to MSW from a maiden claimer. Therefore, the connections probably like him or want to protect their investment until they can figure him out. He was 3rd that day and ran an impressive speed figure for a first out starter.</p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Emperador</i></b> by Curlin for trainer Brown, makes his 3rd life start here. He is the 2-1 ML choice here after running 3rd and 4th in the first two tries. His speed figures are similar to the rail horse. Being a homebred, they appear to have waited on him. He has worked twice since down in Florida, the 2nd one on Sunday much sharper than before. He will go shorter here. I suspect them to send him.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>No More Business</i></b> by Itsmyluckyday, makes his 3rd start and goes longer. He has been off since Labor Day and only 4th and 5th so far this summer against softer than he would likely meet in the winter when the big time trainers like Gargan and Brown bring the high end ones with potential futures. Hard to like based on all that and he is the 12-1 ML because of all that. </p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Emperor Ofthe Nile</i></b> is a fts for Breen by Pioneerof The Nile. He was a 400k yearling but now debuts two weeks short of his 4th birthday. His works are mediocre for a MSW runner and he meets some who have raced and done okay so far. Unless he takes money, he is one to pass on and watch to see what he has to offer.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Noble Empire</i></b> by Empire Maker, for Pletcher, he has made 5 life starts, but only 1 this year. His last start was in January at Tampa, where he finished 2nd and ran a huge speed figure, one that towers over this group, but then on the shelf until now. I'm sure there is a story as to why that is. I want to see how he looks. If he is right, he blows these away. If. He works steady like he is a sound horse, so maybe it was something else. </p><p>In case you are interested</p><p><br /></p><p>Cool names today</p><p>Hushed Hijinks </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-78114113484046774062020-12-16T23:18:00.003-08:002020-12-17T07:54:11.414-08:00Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 17, 2020<p><span style="background-color: red; color: white;"> Race 1</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="color: white;"><span style="background-color: #bf9000;">MDN CLM 25</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span></span> 6 1/2F</p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summary. Both of the likely favorites are okay but suspect. One might be a one paced hanger, the other a no good class dropper who has to go much lower. All of the others have reasons to suspect any one of them could be the one that turns it around today. Other than the fts and the rail horse, the balance of the field goes longer, and longer usually means something comes late when others are fading or tiring. Post parade and betting action key here.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Pretty Rachel</i></b> by Dominus, who is by Smart Strike, has made 4 starts to date, is the 2nd ML choice but the top choice of the track handicappers except for one, who picks her 3rd. She has been 2nd in 3 of those starts, and finished 5th in the other when she was jacked up to 50k from 25k and asked to go a shade longer. She rebounded last time on the drop back down and cut back to this distance. Last time was first time Zayas, and he sticks here. She ran a solid steady 2nd last time but never looked like she was a threat to the winner although she was well in range of her. More than that, her main habit or trait seems to be she can break sharp, but then immediately runs one speed the entire way, which means if she gives the leader enough of a lead, she wont be able to go by unless that one collapses. Thus, she is a vulnerable favorite if you can find one who fits the bill. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>We Bless Luck</i></b> by Union Rags, is a sts who was 10th on debut, but now switches to dirt, drops in class and goes longer in the hopes one or more of those changes helps her out. She drops from 40k to 25k here and gets a new jockey. In that first start, she was well composed, behaved and acted like a decent enough horse, but then broke slow enough to be well back, and never got involved. She didnt quit either and while 10th, she was not well distanced and keeping up with the back pack. She isnt impossible here with all the changes and some experience. Since that race she has worked well twice from the gate and two other works were okay too.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Never My Love</i></b> by Gone Astray, a sts for Jane Cibelli who goes longer and takes a class drop here. She cuts her tag in half, and goes a shade longer, something Cibelli does very well is making very subtle distance changes with good results. She took periodic steady hits of money last time but only ran 4th. Her female lineage is horrendous. Her dam never ran, her 2nd dam ran 4 times but was no good and her 3rd dam won 1 race out of 4 and made 14k. I'm sure they wont hesistate to keep diving her in price if she doesnt produce quickly. That doesnt mean she cant run today, but its a factor to think about. She gets a switch to Paco today, and the combo of Paco and Cibelli is very potent as a rule. She was very green first time out parading, but then settled and is a very nice mover and looks racehorse fit and tight warming up. She certainly looks the part of a runner. She is a price contender here if that comes. I'd probably need 4-1 to 5-1 to use her. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Peachy Queen</i></b> the 2-1 ML choice sent out by top trainer Gargan is by Runhappy, whose runners have been very unimpressive to date. This will be her 4th life start, as she drops out of MSW at Keeneland where she finished 10th of 10 and keeps the same jockey. Being a shipper, class dropper and changing distance, that added to the jockey and trainer in this case, she will take heavy money. She looks like a bad favorite if she plays out that way. Her connections paid 180k for her but based on her form and horrid speed figures, she looks more like a 16k type, if that. She will have to show a lot more to get my vote.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Bourma</i></b> is a Maryland bred fts by Bourbon Courage, who is by Lion Heart, the sire of Kantharos and Uncaptured among others, and thus, has a license to be very tough when it comes to decide who wins at the wire. Bourbon Courage broke his maiden in his first life start with a very high speed figure for a maiden, won the Super Derby and was 4th in the Breeders Cup Sprint. Her dam is by Smarty Jones, a horse that only lost once in his career and was nearly a Triple Crown winner, and her dam won 100k and 4 races, breaking her maiden in her 2nd life start. In spite of all that, this filly only sold for 1500 in a mixed sale. Her works are steady but unspectacular, although she did show decent speed in the 3 furlong work. She is the only fts in the field and could be the sleeper if she is ready to run and some of the higher profile faves dont run well with the class drop angle. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Lady Jae</i></b> by Big Drama, a local sire who sends out a lot of winners, but mostly ones who lose as faves and win as longer shots, makes her 3rd life start. She is a homebred who improved a bit start 1 to 2, going slightly longer and she goes slightly longer again. She is a viable proposition here as a value play if she is ignored and goes off near or above her ML quote. She broke slow in her first start and didnt run well, and was very unsettled and jumpy parading in her last start. Hopefully she shows some maturity this time and that will likely have to be the case to put her in play for the win. She is very much one paced, so more distance might help her in this case. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Lady Tapatia</i></b> by Laoban, who is by Uncle Mo and won one life race but ran in the Preakness as a maiden and won the Jim Dandy after that. She makes start number 3 and ships in from Tampa after making two MSW starts in the summer, finishing 3rd in the 2nd one and improving her speed figure vastly to a level that probably beats these. She will go longer here for her return while she drops into a lower end claimer. The layoff is concerning, but she will have to be seen. Likely a player and viable as many in here are. She gets a longshot jockey in Reyes, so that is something to take note of.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>One Night Stand</i></b> a homebred daughter of Macho Uno for the combo of trainer and owner, she will go slightly longer here after finishing 10th in her 2nd life start, and thus drops into a lower level claimer looking for level competition. It looks like they simply aimed too high with her and took her ambition away, and they aim to rectify that here coming off 2 months rest but steady works. She has broken terrible both times she has raced and given herself no chance. These types sometimes click in and once they get out clean and near the front pack, they pick it up. Yet another with some reasons to think she can turn it around on a dime.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #2b00fe;"><span style="color: white;">Race 3</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 35</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>5F </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summary. One 4yo who is 30-1 ML, two fts who are both 15-1 and the rest of which none really stand out from the other. Two likely favorites with big question marks and others who have reasons to think they can run big today. The value spread has to be right, but if it is, its a playable race.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Emperor's Song</i></b> is a homebred coming off a long layoff and making life start number 5, by Empire Way, who is by Empire Maker out of the great mare Delta Princess, but wasnt much of a racehorse himself. She last ran December 15th of 2019, so is now one year away. On that day, she ran 7f on the dirt for 12.5 claiming pressed the pace and tired and was vanned off. Thus, she comes back now, goes shorter, switches surface and jacks her claiming tag way up. She is the definition of a wildcard factor. She also has a newer, higher profile trainer. She has to be seen.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Princess Merida</i></b> by Hunters Bay, the only 4yo in the field, with horrid form, a new trainer but same owner who was the trainer, and jacks her claiming tag up while she was overmatched lower. This combo had one like that yesterday, and it ran okay, but was no threat to the contenders. I will pass and watch this one. Maybe she improves and moves back down to the bottom with a shot to win a race. First she has to show something.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Sassy Cat</i></b> by Creative Cause, the second runner for the trainer, as she also sends out the rail horse. Same owner breeder as well. This one however looks more viable or at least promising. This will be her 4th life start, and she missed more than a year before her last start, but now dives out of MSW into this claiming race, shortens up, drops in class and switches surfaces. All of those things should help, as she should be fitter, looks like a front end sprinter type and actually was on the lead to about 4 furlongs last time until she stopped badly right at 5f, and has a strong turf pedigree being by a son of Giants Causeway and a her dam is by Medalia Doro, who is by El Prado. Add in the class drop, and she is likely a player in here who may last the entire way, but tries to in any event. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>McAllens Music</i></b> a fts by Macleans Music was only a 9k yearling and makes her debut 2 weeks short of her 4th birthday. Her works are slow and unless she takes a lot of tote money, I cant see her first start. She will have to show what she has. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Shoug</i></b> is a 3yo by Khozan who has been off since last January, which was only her 2nd life start. She was 3rd in a MSW that day at this distance on this surface and took significant betting money. And now its almost a year later, and she is back, in a claimer. She has worked 6 times heading into this race, and her speed figure in her last start makes her the best one if she can come back to that. Big if. Lets see what she looks like on the track. She has question marks as she is likely a short price.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Imhavinaverygooday</i></b> is a fts by Shackleford who picks up a bug rider on debut. She was a 50k yearling. She worked 9 times at 2 in New York but never raced, as she is apparently a terrible workout runner, and 8 times at Gulfstream this year leading into this race, with similar results, barring one strong 3f work. At which point she was asked to go longer, and began to regress again. Who knows what she has? I'm inclined to pass on her and see if she can run 5f at race speed and then find a level. Interesting they didnt start her out at the lowest claiming level, as she would be unlikely to get claimed anyway. She has worked 17 times on dirt, never on turf, but starts her career on the turf. Strangest training regimen I've ever seen. The current trainer however has good numbers in terms of per start earnings and win percentage. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Princess Coro</i></b> by Cairo Prince, is the ML choice, and has made the most starts in this group at 8. She switches to turf, after a few starts on dirt, and tried the turf twice in the summer but at MSW level. She goes a furlong shorter here, but <i><b>rises in class from 25k to 35k.</b></i> If she is indeed the favorite, she is a bad value favorite. She went off the favorite last time, but was 2nd. She might be the type that does a lot of that and ends the meet making money but 0 for 12 lifetime. She had every chance last time, but while she ran straight, she just <b><i>hangs and wont go by,</i></b> despite very heavy urging from the jockey. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Drawntomunny</i></b> by Munnings out of a Ghostzapper mare, should be a good turf sprinter based on that, and makes her 6th life start for Cibelli after making one start at GPW in November after spending her summer at Monmouth. She started out with 2 starts last winter at Gulfstream. She has yet to make the top 5. She took massive hits of late money in her last start, which was an off the turf dirt race, and she clearly prefers the turf. She ran straight to the lead that day, let another go, but leveled out mid stretch. In her previous start, on the turf at Monmouth going a mile, she blasted out to the top, went a fast first quarter, led to about 6f but faded badly late. She runs hard and fast for as far as she can go and if she can do that here, at this distance, she could bottom them out.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Race 4</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #bf9000;"><span style="color: white;">MDN CLM 50</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>6F</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summary. A short field with a clear short priced favorite and a 2nd choice that will be a much shorter price than the balance of the field. Probably looking at 4-5 and 5-2. Both of those have issues and any of the balance could take them given the right circumstances. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Frosted Mistress</i></b> is a fts by Frosted who is a homebred trained by Nicks, She looks ready to start, but not to win. She will have to be seen. Nobody is a toss in this race if you go against the chalk. She has a weak female family and her second dam is by Storm Bird. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Patty H</i></b> by Flatter, she is by far the most raced in this bunch, as this is start 6 for her. She has worked her way down the class ranks along the way, now slashing her tag from 150k last time to 50k here after aborting the MSW trail, but last time was only 6th as the 6-5 choice. She will shorten to 6f here, but has failed twice at that distance too. On the fence with her as to whether she is raced out, or looking for a better spot to find a level she can take them all the way. Her jockey here was on the winner last time against her, stalked her and then blew by. I'm sure he knows she is the type that can only take them so far on the lead and will seek some sort of trip to manage her. She shows no works for the last month, perhaps trying to freshen her up as she has been very hard raced for a 2yo.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Izshefrosted</i></b> a sts by Frosted whose speed figures is in line with the 2 horse and comes back to the same claiming level she raced first out when she was 3rd. She made a very impressive pre race appearance, ran out hard from an outer post, contested the lead wide, and stayed on well for 3rd while the favorite romped. She is the value play here if the top 2 ML choices take the money you would expect.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Snackster</i></b> is a fts by Speightster, she shows 3 works, all of them good, the last one at 5f very very good. Another to use against the chalks if that is the play.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Air Cavalry</i></b> is a 100k yearling by Air Force Blue, who is by War Front, who started out twice in MSW, 12th on debut, then 9th, then dropped into a claimer last time, switched to the dirt going 6f where she finished 3rd and now comes back at the same distance, surface and tag. Her speed figures however are well short of many of these. She has room for improvement, with the recent class drop, surface change and distance adjustments, but she will have to step it up. 2yo's can do that. Minor shot if she can and others bomb out. She has excellent gate speed and that is a plus in a short field like this.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Exact</i></b> by Competitive Edge, who is by Super Saver, goes out for Pletcher, drops into a claimer for the first time, and had been racing in New York prior to her last try on turf at 5f at GPW, where she went off at even money from an outside post and finished 3rd. She is a chestnut filly and looks like a bit of a sulker, as well as suspect confirmation up front. Even though she is hitting the ticket, Pletcher wastes no time in tagging her here, which suggests she is a disappointment in terms of what they thought they had training down. She had to steady sharply last time when a horse in front of her lost the rider, but she wasnt doing much at that point anyway and had a clear run in the stretch and didnt do much then either. She has hanger written all over her.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">Race 5</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 35</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>7 1/2F</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summary. There are no shippers in this race, two for Sano, many going shorter, the likely favorite is taking a class drop. At first glance, a wide open race where something will improve or trip out and win it. Tote money will likely give you value contenders. Favorites must be watched post parading as they have attitude issues coming in.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Congrats Again</i></b> a 2yo by Congrats who started on May 1 and has already made 9 starts. When they named him Congrats Again they named him right. He is durable but has missed the ticket in his last 3, so perhaps he is tiring. This will be his first try on turf, so I suppose that is something to go on. Playing devils advocate, they didnt try him on turf all this time until he tailed off on dirt. He is hard to like as a win candidate.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Andres Eduardo</i></b> by Kantharos, has made 7 starts and not made the ticket yet, but we have seen this movie with Sano many times. He is a crafty, possibly shifty character to be kind. His runners just suddenly seem to click in after many starts and usually pay well when they pop. Many Kantharos's are tough customers that fight for the win. I wouldn't discount this one on the surface of his current record. He goes shorter here and drops from 40k to 35k, a subtle change. Last time, he ran out from the 10 post at 50-1 to gun to the lead and took them a long way before he gave it up mid stretch. The slight cut back in distance and the better post mean he can possibly leave out and sit mid race and make a second move. Decent longshot add in this type of race.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Champion Up</i></b> by Carpe Diem, is a fts for Sano. He has a bullet 3f work two weeks ago and then two medium speed 5f works since, the last on Sunday. Another to consider although as a fts, going longer, he will have no experience with that type of trip. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Trinni Summer </i></b>by Trinniberg, who is by Tueflesberg, is 30-1 ML, has shown nothing to date in 2 starts, switches to turf here and goes longer. He is impossible to make on paper or common sense and his trainer is 4 percent from 50 plus starters this year. He wouldnt just blow up the tote board, he might cause an earthquake from Florida to Texas if he were to win this.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Sweeney's Cat</i></b> by Kittens Joy, so bred for turf, shipped in from Penn as they are shut down, got on turf but had a terrible post and ran 11th in week 1 of the meet. However, he had a terrible post, ran out anyway, carried 6 wide in the turn, then wide all the way to the far turn, still contending, was near the lead when another carried him sharply wide, and then, when he cleared that one, another veered sharply into his path and wiped him out. Off all that, with a better post this time, he can be a value play if he can run like that again without the roadblocks and scenic tour.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Ghostlyprince</i></b> by Cairo's Prince, ran okay last time when switched to a claimer and was 2nd on the turf. He comes right back with a slight drop in claiming tag and is the likely favorite. Last time, he was somewhat unruly and rank in the post parade, then certainly a bad actor in the gate, came out running but sharply right, bumped and pinballed with others, then had his head crooked in the first turn, made the lead deep stretch but let another collar him. He shows troubling signs for one you will likely have to take a short price on today.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Raulito</i></b> by Overanalyze, makes start number 5 and shortens up in distance after finishing 5th. Minor shot but others look better on paper unless he wows me in the post parade and warm up.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Golovkin</i></b> by Mshawish, who is by Medaglio Doro, and thus has a turf pedigree, drops out of MSW but his last speed figure was very good for this group. However, he is <i><b>a bit of a rogue and rebel in the post parade, and he was running in horrible in the stretch</b></i> and then quit towards the wire. He can be beaten based on the negatives he presents. He is <b><i><span style="color: red;">a first time gelding here.</span></i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Kathern's Joy</i></b> is a sts by Creative Cause, finished 2nd first out from the same post as he gets today, but shifts to the turf, which his pedigree suggests should favor him. He also goes shorter. He has a legit shot against favorites who have issues.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #ffa400;">Race 7</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #bf9000;">Maiden Special Weight</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>6F</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summary. 4 first time starters and two with lots of experience. None going longer, class dropping or shifting surface. We could be looking at a speed duel and anything that can rate off that might be the one.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Magic Eclipse</i></b> is a fts by Run Away And Hide, who is by City Zip out of a Runaway Groom mare, made 3 starts at 2, all wins, and then retired with a very high speed figure. He shows 3 so so works prepping for this. Unless he takes unusual money, he is an unlikely first out winner. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Arham</i></b> by Union Rags, a fts for Pletcher, gets Saez and is the ML choice. He is a homebred for Shadwell that they have been very patient with, and now he surfaces here 2 weeks short of his 4th birthday. He shows fast works at 3f along the way, but they stopped and started with him a few times, which suggests soundness issues. Lets see how he looks on track. He is likely talented enough but racing isnt training.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Egyptologist</i></b> yet another late starting fts is by Pioneerof The Nile out of a Lion Heart mare. He is a homebred trained Biancone. Based on his works, he looks ready to run on the lead right away. Must be seen, but he is the likely value in a race where there are a lot of unknowns. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Catch On Emotional</i></b> is a 6 time starter by Uncaptured, who throws runners who like to win, yet he comes off 4 straight 2nd place finishes. He has been the even money or less chalk in his last 2 and beaten in both. Last time, he caught a field of 3 others, one who was never within the rest of them, another who couldnt keep up to the top 2, and the one who beat him, a professional maiden. Which this one is slowly developing into. He is very fast though, and that might be enough with a group who have mostly never raced and have questions as to why its taken them so long to get to the races. This guy runs in a bit late in races, and also appears to not want to pass horses. Tough call as he has found a field he should handle. But that could have been said previously and he didnt. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Mutakaamil</i></b> a 4yo by Tapit out of an Unbridled Song mare, so naturally, he is a gray. He shows high speed at times, as his breeding would suggest, but then large gaps in his races. He is almost 5 now and makes his 7th lifetime start. His top speed figure would probably blow these away. He ships in from New York, where he last raced in the early summer, and finished 4th, in a photo for 2nd with 2 others, and cuts back a furlong here. He will have to be seen. If sound, he is viable to beat these in a race where you can say that about quite a few. He worked a very fast 3 furlongs 3 weeks ago, then went easy 2 more times. I suspect they are sending him today, but he will have company if they do. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Tonalism</i></b> a fts by Tonalist, for trainer Joseph, who has done well with Tonalist, is the 2nd ML choice. He has blasted out some very fast works getting ready. Just another who might be sent out and find company of others who have the same idea.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In case you wondered</span></p><h2 class="clear horse-name-header" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 2.8125px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px !important; margin: 0px 0px 2.8125px;"><span face="Raleway, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 27.5px; font-weight: normal;">Gasparilla Blast gets his name from his dam, Gasparilla Parade, who gets her name from her dam, Gasparilla, who was bred and owned by Stella Thayer, a Tampa native, who was President of Tampa Bay Downs, the filly was likely named after Gasparilla Island, an island near the mouth of Charlotte Harbor in southwest Florida. There is also a Gasparilla Pirate Festival, a large annual parade and other events held in Tampa, Florida, and a Gasparilla Bowl football game held in Tampa. </span></span></h2><h2 class="clear horse-name-header" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 2.8125px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px !important; margin: 0px 0px 2.8125px;"><span face="Raleway, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 27.5px; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></span></h2><h2 class="clear horse-name-header" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 2.8125px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px !important; margin: 0px 0px 2.8125px;"><span face="Raleway, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 27.5px; font-weight: normal;">Cool horse names</span></span></h2><h2 class="clear horse-name-header" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 2.8125px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px !important; margin: 0px 0px 2.8125px;"><span face="Raleway, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 27.5px; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></span></h2><h2 class="clear horse-name-header" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; line-height: 1.1; margin-bottom: 2.8125px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px !important; margin: 0px 0px 2.8125px;"><span face="Raleway, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 27.5px; font-weight: normal;">Textpectation</span></span></h2><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-20395540361842988032020-12-15T23:34:00.008-08:002020-12-16T08:56:26.611-08:00Gulfstream Park Racing Journal December 16, 2020<p> <span style="background-color: red;"><span style="color: white;"><b>Race 1</b></span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #b45f06;"><span style="color: white;">MDN CLM 12.5</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>5 1/2F</p><p>Summary. Three fairly legit likely favorites, although all 3 have questions and aren't cinches to hold off some bomber from the pack. Five first time starters with 2 looking like they might run well first out. No shippers but a few class droppers and many going longer. Post parade and betting patterns will be key. Inclined to think a shorter price wins this, but not likely anything goes off less than 9-5. <b><i>Queen Ashy Baby</i></b> is a possible longshot play if she impresses on the track warming up.</p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Luci Breeze</i></b> by Summer Front makes her 7th start, with two thirds so far. She shortens up a touch here after gradually going longer in each start, then cutting back in her last start. Now she is almost back where she started her career. This will be her 2nd start for 12.5k after dropping a touch last time while cutting back. She is capable enough on paper to make an impact. They added blinkers last time, but she only ran evenly mid pack the entire way and neither gained on the leaders nor faded to the stragglers. </p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Fifth Illusion</i></b> , a daughter of Fed Biz, who is by Giants Causeway, makes her 4th lifetime start here. She took a slight class drop from 16k to 12.5 last time and ran 3rd. She goes a shade longer here for the first time back in the same class. She was off 3 months before that last start, but comes back much faster this time. She took money last time, ran to the lead, dueled, but gave way late and doesnt seem to have that winning killer instinct. In a bulky field with lots of options, she is hard to like.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Facts Only</i></b> by Bahamian Squall, who is by Gone West out of a Storm Bird mare, makes her 7th lifetime start after improving her speed significantly last time. She is the morning line fave and the top choice of most of the track handicappers. She will drop in class, go much shorter and switch from turf to dirt here. At higher class levels she has run just okay at this distance on the dirt. Interesting they would switch her back to dirt after running much better on turf. She cuts her tag in half for this race. Its looks as though they are trying to get her claimed and win themselves on the way out the door. Her breeding suggests she should like to sprint, but she doesnt have great gate speed and runs mid pack with one moderate move. Beatable favorite overall on the variables.</p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Cottons Last</i></b> , fts by High Cotton. She is a homebred for her owners, but shows poor works at best to be kind. She is likely 90-1 and will have to be seen.</p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Baby Ana</i></b> by Ride On Curlin is a New York bred making her 3rd lifetime start. She goes longer, cuts her tag in half and switches back to dirt in search of something to make her viable. She didnt look happy to be out there in the walking ring or post parade last time. She went from disinterested to rank and unruly. She loaded good, and broke well, but gradually backed away, finishing 7th of 7 while cantering under the wire well gapped off the entire field. Cant see her under any circumstance without showing something first.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Nicole Princess</i></b> a fts by Sky Kingdom, who is by Empire Maker, shows 5 works leading up to the race, one weekly for 5 consecutive weeks for Sano, who gets Saez to ride her. She needs to be seen in the walking ring and parading to guage where she is at. If she were to take unusual hits of money, she might be worth including as a longshot option, which she likely will be. I'd say 25-1 is about right.</p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Queen Ashy Baby</i></b> a fts who didnt sell as a yearling and then went for only 7k as a 2yo in training, is by Daredevil, a son of More Than Ready who won his first 2 life starts, then ran horrible in the Breeders Cup at 2, and finished his career in the Wood Memorial with only 5 life starts. He has sired Swiss Skydiver, a classics winner this year at 3. She shows steady works with some improvement and sharp speed at 3f. She is not impossible with this bunch at this level. Viable and one to look over closely pre race.</p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>V K Princess</i></b> by Palace Malice, a son of Curlin. She is out of an English Channel mare and makes her 7th life start here. She carried a bug rider last time, but it did her no good, as she was a poor 4th. She goes slightly longer here for a trainer that wins at 7 percent and carries more relative weight. Cant see her.</p><p>9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Sierra Diamond</i></b> by Bahamian Squall, finished a solid 2nd last time to a fts later runner. She picked up Lebron first time that race and he sticks here. She dropped sharply last time and switched surfaces, which seemed to do the trick. She goes slightly longer here, but looks to be the one to beat.</p><p>10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Kerik</i></b> a fts by Commissioner, who is by AP Indy, goes for a trainer I have not heard of and wasnt the listed trainer when she was scratched for her first attempted life start. He is a lifetime 8 percent trainer who seems to race mostly at Tampa with cheap claimers. She will have to be seen, but is very hard to like on paper unless she takes unusual money and wows me in the post parade. Possible play for later if she shows enough here. More likely back to Tampa in a cheaper claimer than this one. </p><p>11<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Mellow Gold</i></b> by Wicked Strong, who is by Hard Spun and throws tough runners, a sts for Fawkes, who is noted as a trainer who gradually gets them going. She shortens up a furlong and drops from 16k to 12.5 for this race but draws a bad post again. To her credit, as a fts from a bad post, she got up for 3rd. She paraded sharp, calm, cool and collected and focused like an old pro last time. She has a legit shot here but will need some racing luck from the outer post if there arent several scratches. </p><p>12<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Gaga Oh La La</i></b> is a fts by Fury Kapcori, by Tiznow, for owner trainer Anna Varsi, who appears to have just bought her cheap a couple of months ago. She worked sharp after that for 3f, but can she go 5 or 6f at race speed? That is the question. An outer post wont help either. I have to see her for todays rating and possible future plays. Intrigueing though. </p><p><span style="background-color: #2b00fe;"><span style="color: white;">Race 3</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 50</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 1m</p><p>Summary. A lot of class dropping shippers going shorter. One horse switching surface. Trade Deadline, a Chad Brown shipper, dropper going shorter looks like the probable lukewarm favorite, possibly 7-5 or 8-5. The track handicappers picked a variety of different ones, but <b><i>nobody picked Trade Deadline</i></b> on top. Pool Shark looks like the shorter priced value play, while the two outside ones appear to be longshot value adds if a lot of the glamour boys on the way out the door bomb out on the fire sale variable.</p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><i><b>Pool Shark</b></i> a 4yo son of Tiznow out of an Unbridled Song mare goes for top trainer Kelly Breen. He ships in from Belmont and gets a slight class rise to 50k from 40k. He shortens up a shade after finishing 2nd that day and sticks on the turf. He vastly improved his speed rating last time and looks very playable. </p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Seven Channels</i></b> a 3yo son of English Channel with 7 starts under his belt. He drops from MSW and goes a half furlong longer. He seems to like to finish 2nd and 3rd, as many English Channel's do. Not my top choice, but he isnt a toss either. He gets a rider change to Saez from Panici, and perhaps he can shake him up when he is asked to seal the deal. Watching him parade last time, he seems to have a bad attitude about doing his work.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Trade Deadline</i></b> a lightly raced 4yo son of Kittens Joy goes for Chad Brown. He made his lifetime debut at Gulstream almost 2 years ago, raced back 2 months later, then missed a year and a half, coming back to race 2 months ago at Keeneland when he finished 5th. He goes first time claimer here and obviously its time to cut bait for his high end owners. He was well beaten last time, only finishing ahead of two hapless no chance longshots. If his price is short, he is the classic bet against type. </p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Exult</i></b> a 4yo Noble Mission gelding with 7 starts in his resume. He started his career 2 winters ago at Gulfstream with 2 2nd place finishes at MSW then ran okay at Keeneland, then tailed off after that. He missed more than an entire year before his last start at Aquaduct, where he finished 4th and is another who sees a claimer for the first time in his life. As an expensive 2yo in training, he appears to have been primed then, but not worn well over time. He is hard to like at a short price but a viable longshot add on the chance he has a good day and reverts back to the talent he has showed sporadically at times. He tends to run in and that is something to watch for in the post parade.</p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Unpopular Opinion</i></b> is a 3yo colt by Carpe Diem, who is by Giants Causeway and had a brief racing career, out of a Candy Ride dam, so soundness is obviously an issue in play. He didnt start until mid summer this year, and this will be his 3rd lifetime start, both of the previous in maiden claimers at GPW. His overall speed figs are a bit short of the best of many of these and now he faces shippers and droppers from top barns. He is the longest ML and should go off the longest shot in the field. He gets Lapouroux, so that is a plus, but he isnt a miracle worker either. He was 2nd last time, but those were way softer than these.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Colliery</i></b> a 4yo son of Mineshaft who was a 325k yearling, but has only made one life start, that back in March, and has been on the shelf since. That was a MSW for trainer Jimmy Jerkins and here he comes back with trainer Sweeney in a claimer, but not an overall soft spot. He was 7th in his only start then, He will have to be seen, but I'd think a 16k claimer is more an appropriate level for the start after this one if he can come back quicker and stay sound. He did get a very high speed figure in his only start, but can he duplicate that off the layoff and possibly his soundness issues?</p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Mr Matuschek</i></b> is a 3yo first time gelded son of More Than Ready shipping in from Kentucky and dropping into a claimer for the first time after finishing 6th last time at Churchill. He was put on the lead that day but faded to last. Perhaps he changes his style here. Angel Arroyo rode him in his only Guflstream start and he sticks here. That day he sat off the pace and finished okay. Since, he has been on the lead with mixed results. He was a 250k yearling but then resold for 75k after that. He obviously hasnt panned out, like many high ticket ones dont. He has a Galileo dam, so he is bred to like the turf. He is not impossible on the variables when there are serious questions about a few of the shorter priced ones in this race. He ran a very high speed figure in his one start at Gulfstream this past summer. Price contender.</p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Phantom Dance</i></b> is a 3yo gelded homebred son for Sam Son farm trained by Gail Cox and sired by Ghostzapper, shipping in from Woodbine and making his 10th lifetime start. He is yet another seeing a claimer for the first time in his life, but meets many who were legit MSW types when they were still hopeful and viable colts with promise. He races once here last winter, a 4th in MSW, and generally runs good enough to get a decent cheque, other than an 11th place finish at Woodbine 3 back, when he had a terrible post, was wide the entire way while trying to contend and only faded late when not beaten terribly like most 11th place finishers are. He came right back and got 2nd on the turf, clearly his preferred surface and he cuts back a shade here but gets back on the turf. He is a reasonable longshot add. His long winless record is a concern however and his overall speed figs are just a shade short of the best of these, but if they cant produce, they come back to him and he is a contender.</p><p><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Race 4</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #b45f06;"><span style="color: white;">MDN CLM 50</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>7F</p><p>Summary. No horses going turf to dirt, but a lot of others making changes, mostly shipping, dropping and changing distance, while many are looking to find suitable levels and this is a test race for them. This race looks like a longer shot type winner, with a few who fit that mold. Have to see them all as many have bounce type questions that could be answered with a bad post parade appearance. </p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Little Demon</i></b>, a Jacks or Better homebred by their sire Awesome of Course makes his 5th lifetime start, drops out of MSW and has tried stakes company once, picking up 5th money, which was about where his odds suggested he would land, after a 2nd in a MSW in his first lifetime start. The winter is here now and the competition is tougher, so he is priced accordingly. His speed figure regressed significantly last time and he finished 6th as a solid 2nd fave, suggesting he may be tailing off. He was going longer that day, and goes even longer today, but as mentioned, drops in class, and based on the track handicappers selections, will be the favorite although he isnt a top 2 ML choice. Probably a 2-1 lukewarm fave on the class drop and that his trainer has them ready to win on the class drop and is known to spot them where they can do that. He switches to Saez here, and that will also drive the price down, although he had two very good jocks previously so its debatable how much of an upgrade that is this time. He met a kamikaze leader last time, whom he never got near, and while others reeled that one in, he did not and was well back. He seems to be going the wrong way after a promising career start, as happens to many that start early and run hard.</p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Fuego Caliente</i></b> ships in and makes his 2nd life start, as a son of Will Take Charge. Like him, they tend to improve with more racing. He won 7 of 21 life and almost 4 million, but didnt break his maiden until his 2nd life start, then progressed evenly until he matured. This 2yo ships in from Ellis Park, drops out of MSW and goes longer, all things that should help him. His speed fig is in line or slightly better than the 1 horse. He has been off since August, but has two good recent works to get him fit again. Going longer suggests that he made need one, but he is possible right out of the chute here. He picks up Corey Lanerie, who didnt ride him first out in Kentucky, but is a top jock and has done well so far at this meet.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Divert</i></b> a colt by Candy Ride makes his 3rd life start for sharp veteran trainer Pita but rises in class, meets some droppers and shippers on the way up. He was a 10k yearling, but his speed figs are improving so far, and he has some license to go forward, but will have to to take down this entire group. He is possible and the class rise and moderate speed figs mean the price will reflect that. He has longshot potential in a group with more questions than answers on the surface. He tried him longer last time and got 2nd money and goes even longer here. I suspect the trainer is testing him out here, but he could just take to the changes. One to watch either way for future plays. He has started slowly in his two starts, and he needs to improve that. If he does, and can carry his speed, he is a value play here. He gets a jockey change to Vasquez here, as Torres in on another shorter priced horse, but one could argue that is an upgrade in rider.</p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>American Fleet</i></b> ,a fts starter for trainer Kelly Breen for the West's, who also bred the son of Tiznow out of a Tapit mare, tried to sell him but didnt recieve a high enough bid so they kept him and this is where he shows up to start his career. His works suggest he is ready to run first out, but he will have to be seen. Some of the Tiznow's are green early, and many of the Tapit's are bad actors. Post parade and how he handles himself in the walking ring will be important. Its not a good sign the high end breeder was trying to move him as a yearling and he starts out in a claimer. His dam ran 3 times and was no stock at all as a racehorse, while his 2nd dam was a stakes winner of about 200k who ran 22 times and won many races, but took time to win her first race. He is an unlikely first out winner, and bad value if he is a short price.</p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Big Cypress </i></b>ships in from Laurel, after making his debut at Monmouth, dropping from MSW to maiden claiming but showing little improvement. He is by Imagining, a Giants Causeway son out of an AP Indy mare who won 9 of 26 and more than one million as a racehorse. However, he didnt race at 2, showed up late at 3 and took a while to get going but then raced on for a few years and ground out that million. So far, he hasnt produced well, but that doesnt mean this guy cant progress through the winter and find a lower level say around February when the better ones win their way out of maidens. For now, I have to see more and he will have to be assessed on the track. He is hard to like in this spot. He will go longer here and test tougher stock. Lets see how that works out for him.</p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Beeboo</i></b> the ML choice by Elusive Quality for top trainer Cox, ships in from Churchill and makes his 3rd life start. He started out in MSW at Keeneland, ran 6th with a comparable speed fig to many of these, then dropped right away to maiden claiming at Churchill for 50k, which is todays level, and was the 7-5 choice, finishing 3rd but earning a much lower speed figure. You can consider that a bounce effort. Which one of his type will show up today? That is the question and he will have to be seen to make a decent guess. That was only 6 weeks ago, so one would assume he has been kept in training and not rested and possibly repaired if there were soreness or lameness issues. My best estimate is he will end up going lower as the meet progresses. He is going shorter today, and he gave it up on the lead last time. In his first start, he sat out of it and closed to no avail. I would think he leaves but lets others control it and tries for one late run to see where he stands. Beatable but possible at the same time. Not short price material though.</p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Taita</i></b> a sts by Commisioner who is back in for 50k, but meeting tougher types than he would have at GPW when he debuted. He retains his rider Torres, but he was only 4th with that group and his speed figure doesnt match up with the one needed to beat whoever wins this race. He will have to up his game a big amount to get his picture taken. He goes longer here, and maybe that is his ticket to doing better. One the fence as to whether he is a toss or a longshot add.</p><p><span style="background-color: black; color: #fcff01;">Race 6</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 20k</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>7 1/2F</p><p>Summary. A turf race where many are switching from dirt last out, many of those going longer and about half of those shippers. A good race to find a longshot out of that bunch or another who benefits from the likely confusion. Most of the lower ML choices are many time losers who have had lots of chances. The only one who does not fit that bill gets the far outside post. A widen open race overall. One standout who runs and blows them away or bombs out and leaves it wide open underneath her. </p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Matcha</i></b> a 5yo maiden mare by Macho Uno who sold to her current owner for 110k as a 2yo but obviously has not panned out. She is 0 for 10, only once 2nd, but 4 times 3rd. She is very hard to like as a win candidate, yet the ML top choice. Its that kind of race. She <b><i>also rises in class</i></b> from 12.5 to 20k here. She runs basically the same speed figure every time, and I see no reason she wont do that again and make the ticket and unsaddle watching something else graduate today. I might argue they are bumping her up in class because they dont want her to win, as she is less valuable once that happens. Just Sayin. Pass and go against. </p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>New York Commander</i></b> by Commisioner, is 0 for 8 lifetime, comes off an 8th and 7th in her last two, yet jumps up in class and switches to turf, but has tried turf before with the same type of results. I can see her future as being in the cheapest maiden claimer they have at Fort Erie next summer, and not even being the favorite in that. No way I can make any case for this one. </p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Our West Indy</i></b> by Mineshaft, makes her 4th lifetime start shipping in for Kelly Breen and is likely to take some support, but not go off the favorite. She will go longer here, take a very slight class rise, in a race where many arent worth the price they are tagged at anyway, and since her trainer doesnt mess around like some of the others do in this race, I would have to think she is spotted right and in to run and win right now. She goes back to turf, and her speed figure two back when she ran on the turf is better than most if not all of these. She is the likely value in the race. </p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Keypit</i></b> by Congrats, she is 0 for 12 lifetime, ships down from the east coast and has had some bad posts in her last few. She has enough plausible excuses to suggest if the price is right she is in the mix to upset the apple cart. She ran poorly at Monmouth, but her speed figure 3 back at Saratoga plays with this bunch and those were far superior to this group. </p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Signing Bonus</i></b> by Union Rags, is 0 for 18 lifetime, switches trainers from a trainer owner who retains ownership to another trainer. That is interesting and the board must be watched to see if others who know better consider that significant. I will take a post time wait and see attitude with this one in a race where I can poke holes and drive a truck through that tunnel for their chances of failure. The new trainer moves her back to the turf and she goes shorter. I guess that might matter, if she is improved. </p><p>6<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Miss Wrote</i></b> by Wrote, a classic British bred turf type sire, is 0 for 9 and counting as she tries this mediocre bunch. She went back to Tampa last time and earned a decent speed figure for this bunch, and she seems to run better there for whatever reason. She finishes 4th and 5th a lot and is the type that can pop out of the pack in a race like this. I dont love her, but i wouldn't discount or toss her either. She is a protection add because of all of that. The question I would ask is why ship down here when you can stay at Tampa and get 4th money there. Unless you think you can do better than that and possibly cash a ticket. Its not a short drive from Tampa to Gulfstream if you have ever done it. An entire days work and you would have to leave very early in the morning to be on time for afternoon races, then get home very late. Not worth it unless you think there is some reason to do it. </p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Fina </i></b>by Congrats makes her 4th life start, very light for this group of multiple chance losers, but is 30-1 ML suggesting she will be in their situation in 6 months or so unless she heads for a track like Charlestown or Sam Houston and a bottom claimer. She will be coming back on 12 days if she races. I cant see her off her form and speed figures so far. Her jockey brings in a lot of impossible on paper longshots, and this would be another. If he can pull some kind of a rabbit out of his helmet. </p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Trinni Girls</i></b> is a homebred 4yo making her 3rd lifetime start, first on turf, going slightly longer and taking a small class drop. All of that makes her one to consider when you look at the balance of the field of no shot types on paper. She would be a massive bomb if she comes in.</p><p>9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Hoity Toity</i></b> by Mr Speaker, who is by Pulpit, and this filly is out of a Ghostzapper mare, makes her 5th life start, and ships down from Woodbine for a trainer who is also the owner in this case and comes down each winter with a bunch and wins a few here and there. She also goes longer and switches to turf and gets a bug rider so she has a weight edge on many of these because of that and her age. She has higher speed figures than many of these, but comes out of a 5 claimer where she was 7th. Seems more like a Tampa horse, but she meets many in here I could say that about anyway. Longshot, but possible because of others, not herself. </p><p>10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>She's Just Quality</i></b> by Quality Road is obviously the class of the field and the one to beat on paper, as she drops from legit MSW company and has far better speed figures than all of these. She is the key to the race. If she passes the visual inspection pre race viewing, then the race is a no play as she will daylight this bunch. If she doesnt, she provides value on others and a license to take a shot on some hard to like mutts.</p><p>11<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Gingeronmymind</i></b> by Lea, who is by First Samurai and has a Galileo dam, so a turf pedigree, draws the far outside starting slot and in a race where many are going to take a shot and blow up, she is likely in for traffic trouble no matter what strategy is deployed. She makes her 4th life start here, but so far has done little. However, she slashes her tag from 50k to 20k, where many are probably worth closer to 5k than 15k. She would have to be used in the hope the 10 horse blows up and doesnt run well. One of many who you can both make a case for and a strong case against. </p><p><span style="background-color: #800180;"><span style="color: white;">Race 10</span></span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #04ff00;">MDN CLM 50</span><span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>1m</p><p>1<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><i><b>Flutiste</b></i> by Mizzen Mast, is the lukewarm ML choice. She makes her 4th life start, ships in from Keeneland and drops into a claimer for the first time for high profile trainer Motion. She has been racing okay, just not good enough to get it done, and thus, they tag her but are unlikely to lose her in this spot where she will probably avoid the future stakes horses she would possibly meet in a straight MSW. She will have to be seen but looks viable enough. </p><p>2<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Driving Wind</i></b> by Big Blue Kitten, a son of Kittens Joy who won 14 of 33 and almost 3 million, is obviously bred for the turf. She stays on that surface today, but after two on the board finishes to start her career, drops into the high end claimer today now that she has to face the onslaught of well meant shippers that are on the scene. She acts like an old pro on the track, loads well and leaves fast. She does just about everything right and is a solid contender here. She might have a bit of a hang in her, but since she is only two starts in, that is to be determined going forward. So far, so good.</p><p>3<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Mothers Day Jewel</i></b> a fts by Get Stormy, she is a homebred who has worked steady, twice down in Florida in the last couple of weeks, okay enough but not a wow performer yet. She will have to be seen and likely needs a start or two to be up to race speed and some of these with more experience. Her sire ended up being a top older performer, but was lightly raced at 2 and didnt really get going until late at 3. I'm sure her connections have that in mind here. Likely down in Florida for some experience for next spring and summer. </p><p>4<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Lower for Longer</i></b> a second time starter bred in Ireland, by Tamayuz, has a clear turf pedigree and is the second ML choice here. She ships in from Monmouth and drops in to a claimer for noted Turf trainer Brown off an eighth place finish in her debut. She broke from the inside that day and that is tough for a fts facing Special Weight types. Hard to say what she is, but she still has a license to be competitive with these. Lets see how she acts on the track. My best guess is that she is going to have to go lower to find a level, but time will tell. </p><p>5<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Por Que No</i></b> a fts by Wicked Strong, didnt sell well as a yearling and was moved early at 2, for no profit. She has worked 3 times and shown nothing to suggest she goes with these. I'd say she will take a nosedive in price for the next outing. One to watch today to get a better overall handle on her. She is likely in the 70-1 range today and races to those odds.</p><p>7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Wecallherqueenmary</i></b> a first time start by Exaggerator, a rugged son of Curlin, she has worked okay, steady and shown some speed. She will have to be seen for manners and composure, but if she passes those tests, she is not without a chance to pop at first asking, as her sire was good early and ready to go when he started his career. </p><p>8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Big Bad Diva</i></b> a sts by Skipshot out of a Giants Causeway mare has a turf pedigree. She was second in her debut, a 7f dirt race on the sloppy track rained off the turf. Here she goes longer and gets on the turf for high end trainer Joseph. She took <b><i>very heavy late tote action</i></b> last time, had the inside post 1, broke slow and last, worked her way up then was a solid 2nd going forward on a winner who wasnt going to be beaten. If she takes to the turf as her pedigree suggests, she looks like the one in this race. She is 15-1 on the ML, but I wouldnt expect to see more than 5-1 based on all the variables, and possibly could go off a 7-2 fave.</p><p>9<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Speightster's Gold</i></b> a sts by Speightster, goes to the turf after finishing 5th in the same race as the one above, and obviously, they were aiming for turf and a longer distance with this one. Because of all that, she is possible on the change in distance, surface and going longer. She does rise in class as does the one above, but not substantially enough to suggest that puts her in a deep hole. She will have to improve her speed here, but that is not out of the question. Minor shot at a price. Her sire did not race at 2, 3 times at 3 and won all of those, then was on the shelf for a year and came back with one start at 4 and was retired. Durability in the pedigree of this one is a question.</p><p>10<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Brynbella</i></b> by Flintshire, a noted turf and distance champion for many years, is making her 4th life start, dropping out of MSW and shipping from New York, where she was not good enough to make the ticket 3 times. She goes a bit shorter today for top trainer Pletcher, but again has a poor post and will have to be much better. Contender in a field where any that improves can be the one. She has a license to do that but I wouldn't want less than 7-1. </p><p>11<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Secrets Kept</i></b> by Outwork, a New York sire by Uncle Mo, draws outside, drops in class, ships in from New York and goes longer here. She is hard to like on paper, but yet, Acacia made her her longshot play of the day. She is one to look over well in the post parade and warm up.</p><p>12<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><i>Mission Possible</i></b> by Noble Mission out of a Stormy Atlantic mare, she is bred to be a turf horse. She is a sts who ran okay in her first start at Special Weight and drops into the high end claimer here. The bad post is an issue even if she improves. Going much longer gives her a chance to settle and hopefully come from out of it if there is enough speed that battles in front of her.</p><p>Other races</p><p>None</p><p>In case you wondered....</p><p><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10250835&registry=T&rbt=TB" style="font-family: "Arial Black", Arial; font-size: 14pt;" target="_blank">Mr Matuschek </a> is the name of a character from the 1940 movie The Shop Around The Corner, which starred legendary actor Jimmy Stewart, shortly after his career began to take off. Its a story about a top salesman at a leathergoods shop in Budapest owned by the high-strung Mr. Hugo Matuschek. Stewart plays the salesman. You can find out the rest if google it. </p><p>cool horse names </p><p><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10447083&registry=T&rbt=TB" style="font-family: "Arial Black", Arial; font-size: 14pt;" target="_blank">Gaga Oh La La </a> </p><p><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10311175&registry=T&rbt=TB" style="font-family: "Arial Black", Arial; font-size: 14pt;" target="_blank">Hoity Toity </a></p><p><span data-sheets-hyperlink="https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10403496&registry=T&rbt=TB" data-sheets-userformat="{"2":276673,"3":{"1":0},"9":0,"10":2,"14":[null,2,0],"15":"\"Arial Black\"","16":14,"21":1}" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Coffee Buzz Buzz (NY)"}" style="font-family: "Arial Black", Arial; font-size: 14pt; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none;"><a class="in-cell-link" href="https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10403496&registry=T&rbt=TB" target="_blank">Coffee Buzz Buzz </a></span></p>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-28849611033957272162020-05-14T08:41:00.001-07:002020-05-14T08:41:01.964-07:00Gulfstream Park Racing Journal May 14,2020R1<br />
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El Scorcho<br />
( EMPIRE MAKER - PALOOZA, BY HENNESSY )<br />
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El Scorcho continues to drop as she makes his 3rd lifetime start, this time diving from 50k to 12k in somewhat of a panic move. The bloom is clearly off the rose for this former 140k two year old purchase. Its time for her connections to bail out on her and take their losses. Will it workÉ Will it be enough<br />
Her first two starts yielded back to back 9th finishes, but at least this time she comes back within a month, while she had more than 4 months between start 1 and 2. Otherwise, she returns at the same distance and still on the turf. That suggests the trainer thinks he has her figured out right, just that she is cheap and the only answer is to seek out weaker competition in the hope that helps her.<br />
She was a FTS on Dec 8th in a MSW, saddled with post 11, broke okay but then settled mid pack to back pack, travelled along even and went the rest of the way that way. She could be given a mild pass in that she was green and had little chance to start forwardly. She was entered back January 19th under the exact same conditions, with post 3, but didnt run.<br />
Her second start, on April 16th in a maiden claimer 50k, with an apprentice jockey aboard gave her a starting spot in post 8 for the class drop. As with her first start, she took no significant money at any point.<br />
In both starts, in the post parade, she showed little interest in being out there and was indifferent at best. She is likely to be a pack runner with any kind of decent horse until she bottoms out at the B tracks at a lower level where she can run that way and simply keep going like that while others fade on lack of ability.<br />
Last time she broke in the air, stumbled a shade, but then was right into stride and in the same position she was in her debut start. She was wide on turn, given every chance to make a run, but stayed within the back pack and closed with them while not passing.<br />
She gets a solid post here, but gives every indication she wont make front and is destined to run with the pack again, although she runs on well enough that the drop should elicit some kind of small slice.<br />
She takes a major class drop here, but to be honest, she never looked like she was even close to those, so they are just cutting to the chase and avoiding two minor drops and going right to the potential best spot. These are tough times. You cant afford to run where you think the horse is iffy. Unfortunately for her, while many are not taking as drastic a class drop here, they are going down as well. She will have to improve her starting and determination variables to beat them all. I dont see that happening.<br />
I would go against her as chalk. That is assuming she goes off lukewarm chalk, which is likely.<br />
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R2<br />
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7 first time starting 2yo. They will have to be seen, otherwise, a pass race unless something takes insane win money. We will see.<br />
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R3<br />
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Bahamian Prince<br />
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( BAHAMIAN SQUALL - SUPER TROOPER, BY POSSE )<br />
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Bahamian Prince is a 3yo with 2 life wins from 7 starts, and 3 top 3 finishes in his last 3 starts as he slices his tag in half and faces straight claimers. He won a straight 35k claimer at this distance and surface 4 back, and has maintained good form. On paper, he looks very tough to go against.<br />
Last time, for 50k optional, he ran a solid 2nd best to one who had beat him before. He has solid leaving speed, but not as good as the best in that type of race. He will stalk otherwise and tries hard start to finish, so any variable now in his favor, for example, avoiding that one and dropping in class, certainly enhances his win chances. Post 9 might hurt him again, so he is no cinch, but as tactical and versatile as he is, he is tough to beat. I wouldnèt however, take less than 7-5, which he might bring.<br />
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R4<br />
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Tiger's Back<br />
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( GHOSTZAPPER - NATIVE STRIKE, BY SMART STRIKE<br />
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Tiger's Back makes his 4th lifetime start for Dale Romans, his second in a claimer as he goes lower from 25 to 16k searching for the right level. He switches back to the dirt and cuts back to 6f, which is how he started out when he made his debut in MSW. He has been consistent about racing once every 4 weeks, but this time comes back in about 2 weeks.<br />
He was a 370k yearling, but that high hopes ship has now sailed and at best he looks like a mid range claimer. First he has to win a race to find his level.<br />
They tried turf and longer last time. He made a mediocre post parade appearance, as he seems disinterested, and showed the same in the gate, then getting off slowly as if he wasnt paying full attention. From there, near the back, he ran even, with little vigor, then was up for 5th money, nowhere near the top 3, and not gaining on the 4th horse. He shows little in that effort to think a minor class drop gives him winning form. He did the exact same in his first lifetime start, and in both races, was on the right line early in the race. Not sure how low he has to go, but this doesnt look low enough.<br />
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R5<br />
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Stone Hands<br />
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( TAPIZAR - HONEYCOMB GUS, BY IS IT TRUE )<br />
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Stone Hands wins his share and is a somewhat consistent claimer type. He continues to go lower, as he has become the type that picks up slices, and hasnt won a race in 2 years, when he was a borderline stakes horse and could take down legit allowance horses. That day seems to have passed.<br />
He broke sharply last time, moved up to engage the loose leader, stalked and pushed him, but was all done before the 3/4 and basically eased before the last turn and cantered under the wire. On the class drop this time, he cuts back a shade, but considering his record the last year and how he finished last time, he doesnt have the form to fend off stiff challenges, which he is likely to get here.<br />
He was on the right line bad last time, and the farther he went the worse he got. His previous start, at only 6.5f, he blasted out, gained the pocket, pulled on that one but was swallowed up mid stretch and ended 4th, on the right line horrible towards the tote board. I cant see him getting a mile while blasting out with any kind of challenge.<br />
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R6<br />
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Fresco<br />
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( FREUD - LADY RENAISSANCE, BY SMART STRIKE )<br />
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Fresco , a 2nd time starting homebred, has missed almost 4 months but comes back at the safe distance and surface after finishing 3rd in her debut. In that race, she made a very nice pre race and post parade appearance, was fractious and reluctant to load but did go in after a few tries, She was eager to get near the lead, but a few others were faster, then settled and followed in, trapped at times, with little place to move until she angled out on the last turn and took her shot. The winner beat her to the punch, but she almost ran down the leader who finished 2nd. A solid first effort.<br />
She has worked steady and evenly in the interim, and looks very tough as she has experience to go with her likely stakes caliber talent.<br />
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R7<br />
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Maserati Man<br />
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( BIONDETTI - CLASSY CITY LADY, BY CARSON CITY )<br />
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Maserati Man, the lukewarm 3-1 ML choice, broke his maiden 3 back in a claimer in his 3rd lifetime start, and has picked up on the board finishes in his next two at this level or thereabouts. His speed figure shot up considerably in that last start, when he finished 2nd. That was 2nd off a layoff and he just seems the type that improves as he races on. He raced for a 50k tag then, but is in on the optional 32k here.<br />
In that April 4th race, he ran out well, but def was veering right coming out, then was wide most of the way, 4 high on the turn, as he and the winner pounced on two who went at each other and were fried. He looked to have the winner beat mid stretch, but hung enough near the line to let him come back on. He was trying to switch onto his right lead, and did, but switched back and that is when he faded a shade. Hard to fault his effort, but the need to go to the right lead and then not keep on with that is troubling for a horse with a sire like Biondetti. That was also something he did on his return start just before that. He tries hard and is athletic and fast enough, but relying on that sort of action catches up with most, and this will be his 3rd start back and facing tough relative competition.Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-79588010005515595832019-03-19T20:48:00.001-07:002019-03-19T20:48:36.475-07:00Gulfstream, March 20, 2019....notes and possible plays<div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i><b>Lucky Long</b></i> looks to win 3 straight, and faces some tougher foes than she has met in those, in spite of seemingly dropping in class, when you strictly look at the amount of the purse.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">She has been a steady, win in the right spot type her entire career, now 5 for 18, winning every 5 or 6 starts until she doubled up at this meet. In those 2 starts, she raced well and was full value, but also was the benefactor of very good trips. Last time, stalking a longshot in a loose pocket, angling out early and then just sitting outside that one, making the lead and hanging tough, while running a fast quarter around the turn to get some daylight. The start before that she stayed in all the way and shot up the rail when that opened, and again opened up and held firm. She is a trip horse, but takes advantage when she gets it. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Being by Lookin at Lucky, many of his get seem to need that kind of trip and dont like roughing it, nor working hard in back to back starts.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Her last race has been her best speed figure to date, and without the soft trip and a duplicate of that type of speed, she is beatable, yet legit. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Its tough to win 3 in a row period, let alone needing a soft trip and meeting some newer, tough customers who arent likely to let her fall into a comfortable lead without working for it. She is a bigger ML, but I expect her to be the chalk, lukewarm possibly, and I will play others.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Race 2</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i><b>Stronger Kat</b></i> is another going for 3 in a row, and she daylighted a suspect bunch last time with a final turn move that steamrolled anything that had any ideas of getting their picture taken.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">She was 3-5 the best in both of those starts and left no doubt that was an accurate call by the bettors. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">This will be start 6 for the filly by a sire that never raced, and while she didn't do much at all in her first 3, she switched turf to dirt in start 4 and shortened up to todays distance, and repeated that exact formula last time as she moved from maiden claimer to claimer and now doubles her tag for this bunch.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">She will meet this test with new connections, being claimed last time, but keeps the top jockey at the current meet. Her main foe comes out of a maiden claimer for this tag, and was a 4-5 winner in a short field. That one has woken up since Navarro claimed her and is on a roll. Speed wise they are virtually even. Others look legit. She is another I see getting beat if pressured, which is likely. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Race 3</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Seems to be a wide open affair with many having a decent shot if the trip goes their way. Pass for me.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Your best chance at getting value in this race appears to me to watch the post parade and the board and see if anything jumps out. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Race 4</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Gardencity Gambler</i></b> is the obvious chalk here, shipping in from Maryland off a long layoff, daylighting a terrible bunch in a maiden claimer, but running basically the same speed that got her slaughtered back in Maryland. As such, she halves her price tag off the maiden win, and meets the bottom of the barrel here. She is beatable if you can find a live one from the balance.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Glutonosa</i></b> upped her tag slightly last time off a 2nd place finish the time before, and was 4th. She shortens up a shade here on the move back down. She is dangerous enough with this mediocre to horrid bunch. If she happens to bring a price on the hammering of the expected chalk, she is value. Assuming she doesnt parade terrible. She broke her maiden at this distance in a maiden claimer, so she is level in that respect with the expected fave, and has a bit more experience than that one with winners, which can be an advantage. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">She comes back on 2 weeks this time, with a poor speed figure and last time she did that she was 3rd. She has to be seen in terms of what she might bring. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I could see a long shot to a bomb in this race if something jumps out. <b><i>Unrivaled Soul</i></b> comes back on 7 days, after running horrible last week, but she seems to alternate good and bad efforts, and the one before was good, relative to this class. She is possible, but has to bring odds, I'd say 7-1 or higher.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Lisa Mila</i></b> ran no good last time but managed 3rd, a month and a bit ago, beaten by Glutonasa for 2nd. She gets a monster trainer change to Barboza, but stays at the same level. Same owner as previous. Another that has to be seen.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Race 5</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Violent Times</i></b> kept good company in her brief career in New York, but returns here off a long layoff for the same connections, while finishing 2nd in that last start. She broke her maiden in a MSW in late 2017, her only start that year, followed 2 months later by a stakes try at this track just over a year ago where she was 8th. She tried another stakes race at Penn on the dirt, where she was 7th, and then 2nd twice on a shorter interval in New York, then shut down to end her 3yo year. She returns here with an outside post. Her sire only made 4 lifetime starts and many of his are seemingly brittle and lightly raced. She looks like a bad favorite to me. The long layoff off good form, combined with the long gaps in her career, and her sires short career would cause me concern if I were to back her at a short price first off that layoff. Behind her it could any of all of the rest, so its a good race to go deep and take a complete shot against Violent Times.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Race 6</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Morocco</i></b> is 1 for 20 lifetime, that win in 2017, and generally looks dangerous on the turn but hangs late, hence his record. I dont see the class drop being enough to get him over the top, and his speed numbers have been gradually declining. Mott is a great trainer, but he cant seem to get this one to go. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Florida Cotton</i></b> has one win and is now a 5yo, yet he has hit the board in 10 of 13 tries. He is Morocco with a shade more grit, but while he is gritty, he is a one speed kind who also drives hard off his front end and has suspect confirmation up front. He missed almost 7 months coming into his last start, a decent 2nd, but now comes back in 8 weeks, and returns in a claimer at the same level after being taken by Falcone, off many 2nd place finishes. He has red flags all over and while he does have good speed numbers, he is not difficult to go against. He cuts back a furlong, but seems to run the same at any distance....good enough to earn, not good enough to win.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">That leaves the rest, any of which will be a price and are viable if you get past the top 2.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Race 7</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Sonoma Storm</i></b> takes the price plunge from 35 to 16, after racing just 12 days ago. In that race, she ran out for a solid pocket position, stayed in and followed a bomb longshot who wired them, while they werent running that fast, she dropped the bit mid turn and backed away. I dont see the class drop as good enough. The distance appears to be her issue, and she runs the same distance as last time. Completely go against her.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Uncommon Factor</i></b> has run 3 times at the meet and has yet to make the top 5, her speed numbers worse each time. She goes back to turf here, and gets blinkers and a slight price tag drop as Walder, a top trainer, seaches for an answer. That answer could be a trip to West Virginia in a 5k maiden claimer, but we shall see. She will have to do better, and her starting issues also dont help her cause. She did finish 2nd once in the summer, so she has some hope I guess.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Dillons Kitty</i></b> is a one speed type, makes her 3rd lifetime start, back on grass again, goes longer, and shows some hope as she looks to find the right distance, surface and class. If the top 2 fail and they look like they can, she is a solid price option. She is another slicing her claiming tag. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Rucia Mora</i></b> has had some bad posts, and now gets a more favorable one, cuts back to the distance she started her career at, and gets a longshot jockey who is heady with this type. Another good price option with signs that make her viable.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Enoughandthensome</i></b> keeps fiddling with the distance, had a troubled trip 2 back, a trainer who seems to right the ship when it looks like its going to the bottom of the ocean, takes a moderate class drop and goes 3rd start on the turf after only racing on dirt before that. Another with a shot at a price and with a jockey who can bring in a bomb on this kind.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Any of the others if they were to parade good and take unusual betting patterns are viable under those circumstances.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Race 8</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Is a motley crew I will pass on. Hate them all equally.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Race 9</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Wildwood Dancer</i></b> is the obvious heavy chalk as he goes for 4 straight. He is a 9 time winner, 24 of 34 itm, and he comes to run every time. He is excitable and acts up going into and in the gate, and that will come back to bite him one of these times. Especially if he wants the lead and one of the longshots wants to hook him and take them both down the drain. This is a reasonably salty bunch and he is likely to get picked off by one or two of them in deep stretch.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Star Juancho</i></b>, or <b><i>Dupree</i></b>, the stablemate of the chalk, look like the most likely suspects, but others can also trip out. If you go against the chalk, go fairly deep as this could be a shit show type of race. There are a lot of crafty jockeys in this race who know how to work the field and make a late move to get the money in this type of scenario.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Race 10</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Wide open bunch in a big field. Post parade and odds board will give more clues and nobody is out of the mix in what could be a big price finale. Until they all are seen, its a fools game to sort this bunch on paper.</span></div>
Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-25549755376951315862019-01-01T21:25:00.001-08:002019-01-01T21:26:26.226-08:00There's always a But: I don't make New Years Resolutions, but.....<div class="gmail_default" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">When Dave Schwartz first interviewed me for his podcast, he asked me what he asks all his interview subjects. Are you a winning player? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">I answered yes, but with a caveat. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Yes, overall, I am a winning player, and I laid out the reasons I think that is the case in the rest of the podcast, and in the 2nd one we did. But, the caveat was and still is, that I only win as long as I do the things I know I should do and that work. As soon as I deviate from that, I begin to lose. In many ways, that is different from many or the average player out there. They do what they think works, but it just doesn't. For me, what works works and all I really have to do is do those things and continue to generate newer and better ways to stay ahead of the pack, and then add those things and do them in addition to what already works. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">But <b><i>like most people, and horseplayers, I have weaknesses.</i></b> My worst one is that sometimes I think I can get away with not doing what I do---and do best, and just make bets because they look good at a glance. What I do best is watch replays, study horses for weaknesses and fatal flaws, assess odds to determine value, gather data and figure out probabilities. When I do all those things, overall, I win a lot more than I lose. So, why do I make the "stupid bets" the "bets I want to take back" the "bets I regret immediately and after the fact". </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Why do I do that?</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Like many, <b><i>I can be impulsive and lack some level of discipline</i></b>. Over time, I've figured out that it boils down to just those two things. In every instance, I let up, fell back into the old bad habits that forced me to become a better player in the first place, and thought I could just "get away with it"....which <i><b>I know, and you know, and we all know,</b></i> you can't. It just doesn't work that way.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">As I've transitioned into playing and watching only Thoroughbreds, which is completely a new thing for me (I will get into why that is in another blog down the road) I've been very mindful that its even more important not to make impulsive or badly disciplined bets that I know better than to make. So, since its been about 2 months now, and I've played slowly, carefully, and sparingly, and in relatively small amounts for what I normally do and will again, I was progressing well until a day about 3 weeks ago. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Note that under the blue line, its just story to illustrate my main points in this blog, but you don't have to read that if you aren't interested in the story. You can skip over that part if you wish.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">It was a Tuesday. That much I remember. I had been doing well, getting almost all of them right, but with small 2 dollar bets, which is how I play when I'm "testing" something new. I know you need to play with real money even in the testing phase, to keep it real, but I don't want to lose too much in the process of sharpening up what I think I've learned and/or finding holes that I know will be there before I move back up to much bigger sums. Tuesday is a day that I wouldn't play much or at all with the T breds, as the tracks I follow....Gulfstream, Laurel, NYRA, and Charlestown don't run that day. I think Mountaineer might have been running that night and I will play that track occasionally, I don't recall, but during the day, on Monday and Tuesdays, I use those days as prep for the days towards the weekend when all those tracks run at the same time. That is just too much work and prep to do all at once, so I spread the work out for those on the off days that are Monday and Tuesday for me, and partly on Wednesday, as there is no Laurel or Aqueduct on those days. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">On this afternoon, I was left with playing PARX and Mahoning Valley if I wanted to do more testing. I did. I didn't end up making any Mahoning bets, so it came down to PARX, which I really don't like playing for various reasons that I might touch on with another blog. Mainly, the morning line (ML) there is horrendous, the purses are grossly overinflated, and the cheating among trainers is over the top, even for an industry that has some of that at every track. In that respect though, PARX is the Al Capone of tracks compared to most which are the low level, street punk mafia types. But, I still wanted to test and make some plays, so PARX it was. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">I was out doing some errands, so I missed race 1. Race 2 was a small field which became much smaller. It started out as 7, then there were two scratches, who were 2 of the lower priced ML horses. That left 5 of them, of which 2 looked to have zero chance. That left 3 to choose from. I didn't like Miss Al Dila at all, who was the 2nd ML choice. She went off at a clear 3rd choice but was no good as I expected in the race. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">I watched the replay of the heavy favorite, Sheplaysthefield, who was dropping from NYRA into a soft spot at PARX, and she had okay form, although I didn't like how she ran and finished in her last start, which was now 10 weeks ago. Her trainer, Chris Englehart, a very high percentage guy, likes to use this angle, so, I expect that he will do it and I am mindful he can make it work at times. Still, I didn't like how she raced the time before, so, I would need odds to play her. She was likely to go off even money, which was her ML anyway, but early on, she was in the 1-5 range, and only drifted up towards the end of the cycle. The only other horse that looked viable to me was Queen Fantabulous, and in reality, she was the correct play if there was one in this race. She was 6-1 ML, but with one of the scratches being a lower ML than her, and the 2nd ML being a bad rating, I knew she was likely going to be in the 5-2 or 3-1 range. She had reasonable form and a legit shot, although the favorite clearly outclassed her on the program with recent efforts. I had these two horses to choose from if I was going to make the win bet. The rest didn't seem viable or playable. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">My normal discipline tells me to layoff a race like this. I don't like playing short priced faves who have iffy variables, and I don't play my 2nd choice unless I get my value price. Queen Fantabulous was in the 2-1 range, and that was too low. So, the right thing to do, was to make no play. The wrong thing to do, which is what I did, was bet the fave to win. She drifted up to even money, and that was okay value. I played her. As expected, from the get go, Sheplaysthefield ran poorly, was never involved or contentious, and even missed the board. On top of that, even money became 1-2 at the bell, and she was horrendous value. Queen Fantabulous won easy, and paid $6.70.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>Clearly, a bad discipline play on my part, even though I had done my homework and wasn't impulsive. </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Next. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Race 3 was a field of 8, but scratched down to 6, with an entry that made it 5 betting interests. Maiden claiming 2yo fillies, the toughest of the toughest to handicap as a rule. Especially at PARX. <b><i>Nevertheless, I did the work, to see what shakes out. </i></b>The longest shot I watched run at Belmont. My comment on her was..."never had any run" and I didn't see a drop to PARX as going to make any difference. Even at Charlestown, she might be 99-1. Nuff said. Toss. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">One of the scratches was the ML even money fave. So, the rest that are left were actually much longer shots relative to the entry when you remove the scratched fave. I looked at two others, and they looked, at best, to be hoping to beat half the entry for 3rd money. At best. That left the 6, Family Fortune, who had okay form on paper, but looked very suspect running her last race and in the post parade. I could see her being last, which she ended up close to being. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">That left the entry. Neither were spectacular, or even impressive, but they both had legit excuses and looked okay. I could see them running 1-2, but if not, 1-3 and one of them was going to pull through. However, the win price was 1-5, and could have ended up 1-9. No thanks for me on that front. At PARX, even in a 6 horse field with an entry, they will leave up show betting. The bridgejumpers jumped in, as you would expect, even though some of them got burned in the previous race, as I mentioned above when Sheplaysthefield missed the ticket. As they left the gate, the entry had 80 percent of the show pool, you got 2 for the price of one, they had a high percentage trainer and solid jockeys, and both had better form than the entire balance of the mediocre field. So, I wanted to get my $2 back with this bet, and I played $50 to show on the entry. <b><i>I think it was a valid bet in terms of weighting with my $2 bets otherwise. </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">The entry ran 1-3, with the winner an eased up 3 length winner, and the 3rd place horse 22 lengths in front of the 4th horse. It was never in doubt. It was about as good a percentage play as you can find. I don't play on the bridgejumper side often, but there are times when its a good play, and this was one of those. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Before I move to the last example of that day, lets look at what I've done. I made a bad discipline play on Race 2, and lost $2. I made a very good, high percentage, well researched and thought out play in Race 3, and made $2.50. An overall return of 12 percent profit on the two bets. But, it should have a net profit of $2.50 and not .50, because I hurt myself by making a bad discipline bet in Race 2. That is the valuable part of all of it. Not the money. <b><i>The lesson. Don't hurt yourself. There are enough ways to lose on your own without doing that.</i></b> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">I had a few things to do, so I skipped races 4 and 5, as they didn't look like races where I wanted to make a call at this point in my development. The night before, I had looked over the entire PARX card, at a quick glance of each race, which is always what I do when I prep, in terms of thinking of where I want to end up putting my energy. I noticed race 6 right away, as it seemed like a horseman's freebie. For those who don't know what that is, for whatever reason, they sometimes write races where a very successful and dominant horse can actually drop severely in class without going in for a claiming tag, and take a stroll around the track for 1st money. On paper, this looked like a race like that. The horse in question is called Ruby Bleu, a 3yo gelding who had just won a 47k purse at PARX 7 days earlier, and had won today's condition, a 32k starter allowance about a month before. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">He also was a very high percentage winner, and top 3 finisher. <b><i>On paper, he looked bulletproof with this bunch. However, paper doesn't win races, horses who can reproduce their form...and thus, performance, win races.</i></b> I thought originally he would be 1-9 when I breezed over the race the night before, and thus, I didn't even bother to handicap the race, or even watch Ruby Bleu's replays. That would come back to bite me, as when I came back inside and the race was 0 mtp, he was 3-5 instead of 1-9, and looked like a good play. But how would I really know that, unless I verified that the horse on the program was the horse that was running this day? I wouldn't. I didn't watch him in the walking ring, or post parade, or even race last time or the time before. He could be a 3 legged cripple, or very sore, or tired, or a bad actor. As it turns out, he never ran a step, and was running in horrible the entire way, and was well up the track. <b><i>On the impulse of seeing his price and thinking he was good value, I made a quick decision to bet him in spite of not doing the work, doing what I need to do to win</i></b>, as I mentioned to Dave in the podcast. So, my small profit on the first 2 bets was now a loss. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">If I had a do over, I skip the first bet, make the second one, and then do my homework and either skip the 3rd one or play something else that was of value in that race. I lost because I didn't do what I was supposed to do to win. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Its now over 3 weeks later.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"> I don't make New Years Resolutions, but I am making one this year. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i><span style="color: red;">No impulsive or bad discipline bets of any kind. </span></i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">How do I plan to live up to that resolution?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">By being resolute, and by having a simple 5 second strategy of a few questions I ask myself before I confirm any bet I make. Those are:</span></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">"Is this a stupid bet" </span></i></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">"If I make this bet, will I want to take it back after the fact" </span></i></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">"will I regret this bet, win or lose". </span></i></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">"will I regret not making this bet, win or lose". </span></i></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">"have I done the work I need to do to make this bet with confidence"</span></i></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">"have I used my skill set to the best of my ability to determine value"</span></i></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">These are questions you should ask yourself every time you make a bet if you are a serious player with the intention of winning, not just playing. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">A resolution should be something where you can control the outcome. I can fully control whether or not I make disciplined and impulsive bets.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">The thing about resolutions is that you need to be resolute. Or don't make them. Or make them but know you will fail because you really aren't resolute.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Resolutions aren't wishes. They are promises you make to yourself based on realistic goals and determined behaviors you deem necessary for you to succeed at whatever you choose to try and succeed at. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Will I slip up once or twice? Maybe. Once or twice over an entire year when I make 10,000 bets is okay, as they are not going to effect my overall results in any way. But <b><i>slipping up on say 1 out of 5 bets on average is the difference between profit and loss. I don't aim to lose, so, I can't slip up at the rate I have been over the years. That is one of the things I figured out when I realized why I used to lose when I should have been winning.</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">I will have that voice in my head, over my shoulder, that should be there, to guide me and mentor me. If it's there, I will tow the line and stick to the resolution. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">I'm not big on having regrets. As a rule, regret is a negative thing to have, and its backward looking. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Regret is usually a bad thing, especially if its a regret from a past mistake. But, <b><i>regret can be a good thing if you use it as a guide towards your future, and what hasn't happened yet. Like a resolution, you can control your intentions to avoid future regret.</i></b> As a motivator and guide to think about your current actions in terms how you will likely view them after the fact, win or lose. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>To be a winning player, you have to have your personal variables in line.</i></b> Even the smartest, experienced and talented players are very capable of shooting themselves in the head with bad bets that they regret making because they weren't resolute in doing what they do best. <b><i>I am one of those. I hope at years end to say I was one of those.</i></b> If so, I can possibly move on to a new resolution, like solving world peace. We shall see.</span></div>
Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-63806008622686633552018-11-16T11:28:00.002-08:002018-11-16T11:28:36.388-08:00Six Degrees of Cam Fella<span style="background-color: #eeeeee; color: #1d2129; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>The second time I ever went to the horse races was the night Cam Fella won the Canadian Pacing Derby at Greenwood in the middle of his long streak to end his career. Even then, I could tell how big a deal he was. That night I also remember as a night I picked 6 winners out of 9 races, hit 3 exactors cold, and hit the last race triactor for 200 bucks, which was like a million dollars to me at that point. That was probably the night I got hooked on the game. I also didn't bet Cam's race, as even then, I knew betting on 1-5 shots, or whatever he was, to win, was a way to lose money. But I enjoyed watching greatness and no doubt Cam Fella was great. I'd say in the top 5 harness horses of all time. Also my first experience with Perfect Out, who was a great horse on that circuit for many years to come. He was just unfortunate to have to play 2nd fiddle to Cam that year. Nobody was beating Cam once he started to run the table. On this night, Perfect Out put in steps in the stretch, something I don't recall him doing at all when I watched him. He might have been 2nd otherwise. Nobody was getting by Cam Fella either way. He refused to give up the lead when he had it. If he did, he wanted it back.</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #eeeeee; color: #1d2129; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>About 2 or 3 years later I was in University and worked part time to pay my tuition. One of those jobs was working weekends for a friend of my mothers husband, being a helper for his flea market stand, which was the best and most profitable one at any flea market we went to. They lived down the street from me and I'd walk over, pick up his truck, drive it to the market, unload all the contents, including the tables and things like that, all the boxes, sell the stuff all day, and load the entire thing back into the truck and take it home. All for 40 bucks, which seems strange now but that was enough over an entire winter to pay for my tuition. The one that we did that year was the Stouffville Flea Market, the one in the video below. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">As far as I know, that is where the Cam Fella's connections met. Faulkner owned and ran the market, Clements was the main customer, operating the National Sports there, which was massive and not really like anything you'd see at a flea market. Side note, Rocco Auciello, Carmen's dad, who is and was also a horsemen, even back then, ran the kitchen and made my lunch when I got it. He made great fries. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">The next summer, the owner of the stand, whose name was Mike Kagan, asked me if I wanted to work all summer, and do all the markets he went to. That was 6 days a week, a lot of travelling, and a lot of work. But I said yes and did it. I made enough that summer to put money in the bank for after university. The money was very good. We went all over, from as far west as Aylmer, Ontario, well north of Orangeville, Wasaga Beach, Pickering, and a whole bunch of other places I don't remember. Plus the 2 weekend days at Stouffville, which was the biggest flea market I've ever seen, and also an outdoor one in the summer. In the summer, that market paid 100 bucks a day, not 40. For every trip, we got free dinner paid for by Mike, which was usually Harvey's or Swiss Chalet. I was a Harvey's junkie, as I loved their burgers and fries, and Swiss Chalet had the best fries of any place going. I don't and have never eaten chicken, so when we went to Swiss Chalet, I just had 3 orders of fries. You can sense a trend in how I ate back then. Fries were my staple.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">When you worked the summer, you needed help, as it was busier and the road trips required two people to do it. So, I was hooked up with Chris, who had worked for Mike a long time. Chris was a big, strong, very nice guy who worked his butt off and knew how to sell. He could charm girls into buying 2 jeans instead of one, while at the same time convincing an old Italian guy to pay almost full price for work boots, when they could probably go to the mall and get them for the same price. Most people at a flea market want the deal, and expect it. Chris could get them to pay almost full price. He had that charisma.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">Chris and I started to become friends, as he also just lived down the street from me. We traveled to all the markets together. Chris had no idea what a horse race was like and had never been. He was curious, as I was always reading the program when he drove the truck, which he mostly did. One day, I took him after the Saturday gig. On the program, he noticed the name Cam Fella, as he had foals by then and it was a Saturday night stakes card, loaded with Cam Fella's. Camtastic might have been one of those that year. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">On the way home, he mentioned that he knew the name Cam Fella because of the owners of the market, who he was tight with. I didn't know them at all, and in fact, to this day, have never met them. Side note, my friend Les went to school with Dan Clements, the son of Norm, and who most would know as a successful driver for a long time, and some time trainer at stages. I remember one night he won at 43-1 from the 8 hole with a horse called Disreali Hanover, a son of Cam Fella. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">I didn't know them, but Chris had their trust. One day, when we were finished loading the truck back up, he took me to the office of one of them, I think Faulkner, and it was like a shrine, like a museum dedicated to Cam Fella. You had to see it to believe it. I never forgot that. I got that same feeling many years later when I went to the Rock N Roll Hall of Fame and they had a special room upstairs dedicated to Bruce Springsteen. The immensity and volume of stuff and memories can really grab you when you view it that way. To me, Cam Fella was to racing what Bruce Springsteen was to Rock N Roll, an unlikely hero from humble roots who connected with the common man while still showing true greatness.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">Fast forward to when Presidential Ball first came out for his first baby race. He was a son of Cam Fella. To see him on the track....I was along the rail at Greenwood, which was very up close by track standards, you could just tell how classy and good he was. He came a very fast last quarter and was clearly the best at that point. A year later he won the North America Cup. His trainer, Bill Robinson, had a power stable of two year olds that year, including Presidential Ball, Lotta Soul and Riyadh. There were others as well. He dominated every race around there. Presidential Ball was always my favorite Cam Fella foal of the high end ones. In the Cup, he was parked every step, 3 wide for almost the entire last turn, and set a Stakes and track record to win, moving down Life Sign, who was a very tough horse to beat. Presidential Ball was just a very tough customer, much like his father. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">A year before that, on a nothing Friday night in the spring, I remember my first encounter with Precious Bunny. He was an okay New York Sires horse, but didn't look like a champion that many Cam Fella's were. Until this night, when, off a qualifier, he won by at least half the stretch, in a speed we had not seen before. I was at the Greenwood intertrack that night, and the race was at Mohawk. Most that were at the intertrack were hard core players who didn't care any more about a stakes horse than a 10 claimer, as long as they cashed on the winner. That night, there was just a complete silence watching that race, then a buzz for about a week or two. People just talked about what Precious Bunny did that night like they had seen Jesus on the track. We all know he backed that up with a summer of big time wins until the Provincial Cup. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">About 6 or 7 years after that, when I was owning a few, my trainer, who was also a friend of mine, phoned me at work and told me he didn't have time to train mine anymore, as he was scaling back. I had owned some decent OJC horses before, but at this point, I owned strictly mediocre B track horses. Four to be exact. I also had a very demanding day job, and a new wife. I tried to find someone to train them, but nobody that I thought was right for what I wanted, so, since I'd always wanted to try training, I thought I would do it...along with my day job. That is and was as crazy as it sounds when you just read it. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">At work, one of my coworkers knew a guy who had a farm in Mississauga, which was about a 30 minute drive in the mornings from my house, and about an hour from work after work. Some days I did both, other days I did one or the other. On the weekends, I did full days, every week for a couple of years. When the horse had to race, I sent them with another guy that I was stabled with unless it was a Saturday night or Sunday. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">One of the horses was a cheap claimer, Edward Seelster, and he was easy. He was a robot in terms of doing what he was told, he was sound, good gaited and had zero problems. But he was only a cheque getter, so, eventually he got claimed when I dropped him a level to get a win, which he didn't even do that night. A second one was a mare I bought that I always liked and I thought would be a good broodmare when done racing. Her name was Almahurst Loraine. Turns out she was sterile and could never get in foal. When she came to me to train, she had just bowed a tendon and been turned out 6 or 8 months. Going against the advice of everyone I met, I fixed her up, got her trained down in about 6 weeks, and she won tons of races and money for me. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">A third horse I sold because I found I could only handle 3 and do it right. She was a nice filly named Winwood Dancer and did okay for others. My trainer had bred her, owned her mother, and when she didn't sell for enough as a yearling, he kept her and I bought half. She was a nice horse and was capable enough to get 2nd in a Sire Stake at 2 which went for very good money. She seemed to go backward mostly from there. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">The last one was a green horse, a very green horse named Eddie Lebec. He was by a son of Cam Fella, Carlsbad Cam. I remembered Carlsbad Cam as a horse that went very tough trips, but still won by just as much as he needed to, just like Cam Fella. In the video above, he got a great trip and won, and once he made the lead late, he wasn't letting anybody by. In the race I remember him most for, his win in the elim of the NA Cup, he was first over a long way but just kept going and drew off late. That video is out there somewhere, but I couldn't find it. That memory always stuck with me. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">I bought Eddie Lebec for 1600 bucks at a Mixed Sale when he was 2 years old and did not make it that year. Side note, the guys at the sale I spoke to that year, who I didn't know at all, I ended up stabled with about 4 or 5 years later. They told me he had trained in 2:11 before they stopped with him. He had clean legs, but he had suspect ankles even then. He was not likely to last. He was an expensive yearling to some extent, I'm going to say about 20 to 30k. He looked the part. Big, dark, had some of the attitude that Cam Fella was known for, and I remembered his half brother, Skippy Handleman, as a durable and solid mid level horse for a few years. My trainer was also partners with me on that horse, but he could not get him to go. He asked me what I wanted to do with him. He suggested sending him to the Mennonites. We were also partners on Winwood Dancer that I didn't end up with and sold back to him. I took Eddie, who we called Sam, and he took the filly and sold her off to another guy he was stabled with. By the time I started training Eddie Lebec, it didn't look like such a smart exchange. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">Eddie Lebec was a major challenge for a young inexperienced trainer like me. He had a mixey gait, in that he couldn't trot a step, but he was a jerky pacer slow, and would put in an extra step at any speed, unless you put the hopples on him. I didn't have a lot of time when I got to the barn from work, or in the mornings. So, because I was fighting against the daylight disappearing, I didn't use the hopples with him except on the weekends. That probably ended up being a good thing, as he gradually learned to pace better and find his balance. When I finally got him going and he was ready to train fast, I put the hopples on him and he was smooth as silk with them. He was really only mixey gaited because of his weak ankles, which puffed up when I started to race him later on. Eventually, that is what cost him a longer career.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">For a short time, I was just too busy at work, so, I sent the two, Edward Seelster and Eddie Lebec, that were racing or ready to to my former trainer for a month. I kept the mare with the bow and worked on her daily to get her to where she was going to need to be. She was a lot of work for a horse that never really jogged or trained. Just making her sound and getting her fit without that was a big job. But, that could be done in the dark, so she was more suitable to the schedule I had at the time. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">One day, my other two were going to train and I took off work early to go out to see them and sit behind one while the trainer sat behind the other. He took Eddie Lebec, I took the Edward Seelster, who was racing steady every week in about 1.58 or 2.00. Eddie Lebec liked to lead, and he didn't like to be passed. At that point, he had never been faster than 2.20 since I'd had him, but, on that day, when I came up beside him with the racehorse, he would not let him by and could not get by. He had that Cam Fella toughness. A week later, work lightened up and they came back to the barn I was stabled at. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">About a month later, Eddie Lebec was ready to qualify, which he did, and was ready to race the next week. The trainer, also my long time friend, was there at the rail with me as we watched the race. He went right to the front and wired them. Only ahead by a small amount the entire way, but never letting any horse by him. He won by probably a neck. Just like Cam did most of the time. The trainer said to me.....I can't believe that is the same horse. Eddie Lebec went on to win 3 of his first 6 races, and I even took a shot with him at Woodbine, but he just couldn't go fast enough without his ankles starting to flare up so I aborted that ambition. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">I had him for a couple of more years, but by then I had other better ones than him, plus Almahurst Loraine who was a winning machine, so I decided to drop him into the cheapest claimer they had and lose him, which I did. That night, even though he wasn't sound and had a bad post, he laid parked first up the entire way, and went even with the leader every step, until the last step, when he went by him. He was like that. I never forgot how tough he was. He also bit me once in the crossties. He was a nice pleasant horse most of the time, but he had that nasty side too if you didn't watch yourself. In the paddock the other horses stayed on their side and didn't mess with him. In the crossties, when you touched him, he always had his ears pinned back.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">A year later, I was racing at Flamboro, and by then had stopped working a day job. I had a cheap mare I really liked, named Mac Ms R Nukes. That day, for whatever reason she was extra good and won at 50-1. I was chatting with a guy I knew from around, Jason Klein, and mentioned I was looking for a place to train closer to home, as the constant travel was wearing me down. He mentioned he was stabled just about 10 seconds drive from where the Stouffville flea market was. There were quite a few empty stalls. I called the owner, and I took them. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">One day, while there, my wife came to visit me and bring me lunch, which she did on the weekends sometimes. That day, she came, but we went to get the food instead. Some ice cream at the corner. While we were there, I got fries. I loved their fries. She had the ice cream. The restaurant was not in the actual flea market. While passing the market though, I noticed they had a banner that said Cam Fella was there that day. By then, he had been gelded and retired as a stud. They had him in a makeshift stall they put there. He was eating his hay when I arrived. At that point, I had been training a long time and had a lot of experience with handling horses. I wasn't a novice fan looking to pet him. I just got up close to him, which I had to to see him. He was eating the hay, his back to me, and in a split second, he turned, wheeled would be more accurate, lunged at me, snapped his teeth and bit me. Why he chose to do that, I don't know. But he did. I lept back, but he clipped the top of my hand and left a small bite mark. It didn't hurt, but it was certainly a memorable scar to have for a month until it healed. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #eeeeee;">He died a year or two later. That was my Cam Fella experience, start to finish, with a few stories in between that he played a part in. </b></span></div>
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Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-21928584823443956832018-11-01T18:22:00.001-07:002018-11-01T18:22:56.091-07:00Even if I wanted to be<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I<span class="gmail_default">n my high school yearbook, everyone wrote some little blurb to go along with their picture. To me, much of what most wrote was obvious and juvenile. I get that we were only 17 or 18 and its hard to expect Shakespeare from teenagers. I was never your average teenager in that respect. </span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Anyway, I got a lot of response from mine as you might expect, although that was not my intention. I was always different than others. I realized that when I was very young, and I rarely have tried to fight it. I have my moments when I do, but I always come back to the gist of the blurb I wrote, and the poem I wrote below. Here is what I wrote back then, in 1984, and I can say it only took 10 seconds thought to come up with it, because its how I've always felt. </span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i>"I can only be me, who else can I be?"</i></b></span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The poem below is something I wrote this week, as I try to rekindle my creativity, for various beneficial personal reasons. Basically, its just an extension or continuation of what I wrote 35 years ago in my high school yearbook. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Even if <span class="gmail_default">I</span> wanted to be</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">-<span class="gmail_default">---------------</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I cant be the person <span class="gmail_default">people</span> want me to be</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Even if <span class="gmail_default">I</span> wanted to be</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Sometimes I think I want to be that person</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Sometimes I don<span class="gmail_default">'</span>t<span class="gmail_default"> know if I do</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Sometimes I try</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Every time I try</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I fail</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I know I cant be</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Because its not me</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I'm not capable of being that person</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Its never going to be me</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I'm only capable of being who I am</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">For better or worse</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">That is who I am</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">That is what I am</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">That is what I was meant to be</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Even if that isn<span class="gmail_default">'</span>t good enough</span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I give what I've got</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Its all I've got to give</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Even if I wanted to be more</span></span></div>
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<span class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">There is no more there to be</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I can only be me <span class="gmail_default"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">I cant be more than that</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">So I've quit trying</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">To be more than I can be</span></div>
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Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-42882949462935576222018-04-07T15:39:00.001-07:002018-04-07T15:45:24.151-07:00WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: April 7, 2018<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 1</b></u></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>1 POP I</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">was used hard to make the lead last week and he backed away sharply once headed. He wasn't that much better the week before. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He won for Moreau first off the claim, then got sick.</b></i></span> Perhaps he will just turn it around at a price. He is possible on that angle.</span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;"></span><br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><i><span style="color: red;"></span></i></b></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 CLOUD NINE HANOVER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> found the right class, trip and field to finally win a race 2 back.<span style="color: red;"><i><b> He reverted back to his usual form last time,</b></i></span> at this level, and until he shows me more, I expect him to continue to get beat unless he is lower than this, and maybe even at that level too. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 BUZZ</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">jumped it off last time, which he has always been prone to do, but he was solid the time before, and even paraded great that night too. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He drops back to that level here, and he is my top pick to turn it right back around.</b></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 P L JERICO</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> received a bad drive by Fillion 2 back, as he let him get shuffled out the back door completely. Last time, he just put him on the front and wired them.<span style="color: red;"><i><b> He moves up slightly here, and that is enough to deter him, as he appears very class sensitive.</b></i></span><br /><i><b></b></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 TOUCHDOWN AS</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> never looked good last time and ran eventually. He has been going the wrong way for weeks, and <span style="color: red;"><i><b>I need to see a reversal to get back interested </b></i></span>in his chances. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b></b></i></span></span> <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>6 ETRUSCAN HANOVER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> is what he is, and that is well known. Until I see him parade, I make no call on him.<span style="color: red;"><i><b> Because its race 1, I get to see him before I make any real bets. </b></i></span>At least they are giving us that chance tonight. He is buyer beware.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b></b></i></span></span> <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>7 SETANTA</b></i></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> moves up off 2 solid 2nd's, but was <span style="color: red;"><i><b>bearing in badly, hard to steer</b></i></span> in both of those late. It only gets tougher when you have to beat better when that is the case. No thanks.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 2</b></u></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>1 THE REV</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">can leave plenty and the short field helps him greatly here, but he has trouble finishing it off.<b><i><span style="color: red;"> If he trips out and can hold the pocket to Nirvana all the way this time,</span></i></b> he has a shot to take him near the end. A minor shot to do that.</span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;"></span><br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><i><span style="color: red;"></span></i></b></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 TRACEUR HANOVER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">moves back to Ben B, where he has been before I think. He is most potent with Moreau, and even at that, he has trouble at the top level. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>Bit player in my view that gets money tonight just by showing up</b></i></span>. Another day maybe.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 NIRVANA SEELSTER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">left out and then went unchallenged to the half last time and there was no beating him. He could get that same edge here again, and its<span style="color: red;"><i><b> his race to win or lose</b></i></span>. I cant go against him and I'd be inclined to single him. When he gets good, and around this time of the year especially, he can dominate. The shorter the field, the better for him. </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 AMERICAN VIRGIN</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> is capable enough when he is right. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He didn't look right to me last time</b></i></span> and he made the break leaving. He will have to be seen, but at this time of the day, I think he is in tough taking down Nirvana or The Rev who is likely sitting on Nirvana's back all the way. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 PHYSICALLYINCLINED</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> didnt race for a long time, then came back from the Maratimes and came to life here, was sold, but now<span style="color: red;"><i><b> races sporadically, which is a concern competing with the top level at this track.</b></i></span> I will play others. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b> </b></u></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 3 </b></u></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="color: black;">I will breeze over this race, as I don't really play cheap claimers anymore. </span></b><u><b><br /></b></u></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>1 ROSE RUN SPEEDSTER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">has poor form, but he did draw post 1 and 2 in every start on the page at WEG, and that has been a bad place to be since New Years, resulting in a lot of bad starts for him. He does again, so <span style="color: red;"><i><b>he is up against it, but perhaps watch for another day.</b></i></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><i><span style="color: red;"></span></i></b></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 THE POWER OF MANY</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">moves up off the claim, but this level has proven to be outside her comfort level to this point. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>She would have to be a lot better than she has been</b></i></span> in her recent past. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 XTATIC HANOVER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">should be called erratic, not xtatic, as he seems to just pop off a big effort, then find a bunch of reasons to fail otherwise. That is the nature of this class anyway, so, <span style="color: red;"><i><b>he can get it done on a relative class drop if tonight is one of his good nights</b>,</i></span> as he had at Yonkers a month ago.</span><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 LEXUS ROCKY</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;"><i><b>has
horrendous form and rarely looks good parading. </b></i></span> Hard to toss anything in a field like this, but he is the one I'd go to if I had to pick one. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 MEGO MOSS</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: red;"><i><b> </b></i></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;"><i><b>raced badly off the claim and now has missed almost a month.</b></i></span> Maybe he was sick. Maybe he just is raced out. He can get that way and need some rest. He is hard to figure race in, race out.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>6 MAXIMUSCLE</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Made a break leaving last time first off the claim, from the rail, and I can give him a pass on that. He too can be very erratic, but <span style="color: red;"><i><b>on his best day, he can pop off a monster mile and blow up the tote board</b></i></span> as he did in his lone win in the last 2 years. Post 6 and McNair might work for him if he can get him to the gate and follow it out without a fight. <span style="color: red;"></span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>7 MEADOWBROOKCHARLIE</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: black;">drops in class</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">, but needs to. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He has not been impressive for some time.</b></i></span> His trainer, who was once the toast of WEG town, is now 2 for 69. Pass. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>8 CLASS ME NICE</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: red;"><i><b>Draws outside, and that can cost one like him </b></i></span>when he is willing to cave if the trip doesn't go his way. I would go elsewhere and play the "rat that lucks out wins this race and doesn't figure" angle. </span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 4 </b></u></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>1 REIKI</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Appeared to me last time to be test driven, taken to the back, with the knowledge the winner was a cinch, come late and tune him up for future tries. That try is here tonight. He keeps McNair, comes off a decent win two back off the claim, goes for Marfisi, who is winning at 50 percent, and <span style="color: red;"><i><b>he hooks a weak bunch in a 6 horse field. He looks like the one to me,</b></i></span> and the price should be okay.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><i><span style="color: red;"></span></i></b></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 MAJOR LEGACY</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To his credit, and his owners bank accounts, has won 2 of his last 4, making almost 12k in the process, while <span style="color: red;"><i><b>basically tripping out or outstaggering some pretty weak competition.</b></i></span> These look no tougher, so 3 times a charm? I think not. Life doesn't work that way. I will go elsewhere.</span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 PAULY WALLY</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Came late last time and got there in time, with a solid steer from McClure, and he meets no tougher here. He should win this, but he has been known to just bomb out from time to time. He won his way out of tough conditions by winning in a bunch, but now he has to fight it out week to week with others who have done the same. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>Player, but only one of many. </b></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 BUGGER BRUISER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> is 2 for 56 the last two seasons, with one of those wins last year at Georgian, the other at the bottom of the page taking down McDave. McDave..nuff said, and he came a weak back half to do it. He was a very nice 2yo, and has had flashes of being okay since, but lately, <span style="color: red;"><i><b>he looks like he is on the downside of his career. </b></i></span>Others look better for the win, but he can effect the outcome with his gate speed here.<br /><i><b></b></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 LATE NIGHT</b></i></span></span><br />
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Ships in from London but he has won here before. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He has competition for control here</b></i></span>, and if he blasts, even though its a short field, we could see a rodeo. That doesn't favor him when he needs to race at the B's to get his wins lately. Pass. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>6 MACHAL JORDAN</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">gets significant class relief here, 3rd off the layoff, <span style="color: red;"><i><b>he is a noted drop and pop specialist, and he should handle these.</b></i></span> Hamilton notes that he wasn't very interested last time, and that concerns me when a horse comes off a layoff and has the miles on the tires that he has over the years. He is possible, maybe even probable, but I can go against him with others. Must use, but certainly iffy on what I see.<span style="color: red;"></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 5 </b></u></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>1 SHADES OF BAY</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Moved up to face the toughest ones and held his own. He was sitting in but was not about to go gunning at his stablemate, so he hung back and came home with the pack for 5th, but raced solid. Before that he ran into the current buzz saw that nobody is beating at this track, and was 2nd best to him. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>This is a good intermediate level and field for him. </b></i></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><i><span style="color: red;"></span></i></b></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 FANCOURT</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Has certainly matured into a solid aged horse and he seems to come ready to compete hard every week. This is a fairly tough bunch, he isn't outclassed by them either and <span style="color: red;"><i><b>his overall speed matches up</b></i></span>, but he will need the right trip to take them all down. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 FINE DIAMOND</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Comes in off a solid 3rd in the top class and a win just below this level, yet he fits the condition as he completely missed a cheque in the 3 races before that.<span style="color: red;"><i><b> His 54.3 back half last time certainly makes him very dangerous with this bunch </b></i></span>and he can leave enough to make it work for him. </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 IDEAL JET</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">has matured nicely into a solid upper end condition horse over the last year or so, with his last race one of the best for him in a long time. However, <span style="color: red;"><i><b>this is another level entirely and in this deeper field, he will have to beat more than just a dull Jins Shark</b></i></span> and a bunch of others who would be 99-1 in this race. He can get a small piece if things go his way.<br /><i><b></b></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 BLATANTLY BEST</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;"><i><b>has missed more than a month, </b></i></span>and while he drops and has 2 2nd place finishes at the level just above this, the sharpness he would need to take many of these down is not there in my view. I will watch him for a play next time. <br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>6 COOL ROCK</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Came from out of the clouds and blew up the tote board last time, on a night when that was the norm. He has found his legs lately, but again,<span style="color: red;"><i><b> he meets others who look a lot better than him at this stage of their respective careers.</b></i></span> He is a victim of his own current success in that he has to tackle horses that are beyond his reach. Pass.<span style="color: red;"></span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>7 RESISTANCE FUTILE</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Moves up off a 7th place finish a class below and meets some very legit class droppers with solid form. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>No shot.</b></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>8 MAJOR HILL</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: black;">Failed last time and is one start away from a major class drop and easy score.<i><b><span style="color: red;"> I expect a no try effort tonight from him</span></b></i> and just enough of a brush to set him up for next time.</span><i><b><br /></b></i></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 6 </b></u></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>1 AIR GLIDER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Race well last time but couldn't take down Flying Isa and now bumps up the tag and meets some conditioned foes. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He looks short on class and speed with a few of these,</b></i></span> but he could be good for the bottom of the ticket if they don't perform and come back to him. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><i><span style="color: red;"></span></i></b></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 MEADOWBRANCH MEMO</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Is a habitually slow starter who comes from well out of it and picks off whatever he can as they come back to the field and he can find a seam to do that. <span style="color: red;"><b><i>Just the type of longshot that wins races like this if the top faves bomb out, of which the likely ones in this race have a history of doing</i></b></span> for a bunch of different reasons. The slight class drop in his last two have made him a shade more competitive, and he is also a horse that is best handled by someone who drives him steady. McClure sticks for time 3 now, and if things go right, meaning in this case that others go wrong, he is a price option here. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 HONOR ABOVE ALL</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Has decent leaving ability, but he relies on going to the B tracks to take them all the way, which he did last time. Back here, <span style="color: red;"><i><b>he seems to think the tote board is the finish line, and sadly, it isn't.</b></i></span> He should be a very good earner all summer racing a lot at the B tracks when they start opening up and his tactical early speed gives him a bigger edge there than it does here. </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 GUSCREST</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Came off the shelf, had a prep at Flamboro, then gunned to the top and coasted to the half, and <span style="color: red;"><i><b>in a soft and gapped out field, just had to go even from there to wire them up at a big price.</b></i></span> He could be one of those that finally finds himself as he ages, so he isn't a toss, but the way he won last time and who he did it against makes me think it was more smoke and mirrors than reality. He will have to prove it to me one more time before I'm A Believer. <br /><i><b></b></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b></b></i>Was a pretty nice horse as a colt, and even won the Preferred a time or two when younger. That was then. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He has lost a step or three since then, </b></i></span>and while he won at the bottom 3 back, he hasn't gotten it done at this level in 2 races since. I could see Roy blasting out with him here, and if so, whoever is on his back is viable if they get out in time. Who that is I'm not sure, but that is probably the winning trip. And that isn't him. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>6 MARQUIS VOLO</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Has known issues and talent, and in that he sometimes can overcome those while he lasts, which is pretty short most seasons, he can't be relied on week to week to perform.<span style="color: red;"><i><b> Post 6 can help him here if he can get away mid pack and not way back, and stay on stride. If so, he can trip out and beat this suspect bunch.</b></i></span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>7 JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b> </b></i></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Doesn't win often and has a trainer who is 0 for 25 this year. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>She would have to massively turn her form around.</b></i></span> No thanks. Too many options in here to take a flyer on her.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>8 MANOFMANYIMAGES</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Moves up without winning, but that doesn't concern me, as many of these are short on current class. He gets post 8, but this is likely to be a tight pack and he can stay in range. He has been a beaten fave 3 in a row, and if he was sent off a 4th time at that rating, I would play against him. But, if he goes off 7-2 or above, <span style="color: red;"><i><b>he is possible with the nature of this field and how the race might play into the hands of a guy like J Mac, who wins these types of races on the line. </b></i></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 7 </b></u></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>1 WESTERN PHIL</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Ships to Moreau from Allard, from which he was the same horse we saw here last year---<span style="color: red;"><i><b>he is inconsistent and he has trouble winning most nights.</b></i></span> Unless Moreau finds some key to him, I'd say he is heading for the 20k conditioned claimer in the near future. Pass for me.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 EAST END</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Got it done at the bottom class but reverted to his hanging ways back in this class 5 days later. At this point,<span style="color: red;"><i><b> I think he is in deep when he doesn't have the class relief, and he is even marginal in with those.</b></i></span> Pass for me until I see him tagged and find a level that works for him. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 REGAL SON</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Drops in class and picks up J Mac. <span style="color: red;"><i><b> He is just one of those horses who is always viable and always beatable, at both classes lower and higher than this.</b></i></span> He has missed a month now and was pacing in 52 every week, but only taking small shares because of the company he was keeping. I'd have to think staying out of the box when he was eligible to this class means he was sick on some level. When you add up all the negatives..possibly sick, short, low percentage winner, minor class drop off a poor line, and possibly still a shorter price with the fast lines on the page, I can take a shot against him and toss him out of the pick 4's entirely.</span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 BALI</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Ships in from Rideau with good form and he is a <span style="color: red;"><i><b>35 time winner who knows how to make money moving around the condition classes. Perfect type who could upset this bunch who also do a fair amount of that.</b></i></span> In terms of pros and cons....he picks up Fillion, gets a good leaving post, and comes in off a fast win at a Preferred level. On the con side, he won off a pocket trip, gave it up before that when he cut it, and probably isn't much faster at the big track than he is on a half or a 5/8ths. If you are looking for an upsetter, he isn't impossible. Thats the best non recommendation I can give out.<br /><i><b></b></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 FLAHERTY</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b></b></i>Has always shown high ability, but he doesn't last long and he goes very lame. Off his latest layoff, when he looked very bad last summer, he was given a prep race by Budd before coming back here at a low level. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>If he does poorly tonight, he will get to try the softest class at London or Flamboro next time. I'd think that is the plan tonight.</b></i></span> I can't see him in this competitive for this class field off his current suspect form. Trevor passed him up for a MacIntosh horse even though he has done very well with both Budd and this horse in the past. <br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>6 SINGLE WHITE SOCK</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Left last time but stayed in then shuffled out a bit, came back on and nabbed 3rd in a very gapped out field. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He earns just enough each week picking up small slices that he can't drop to the bottom, </b></i></span>where he would be much more dangerous. His 2 for 53 record speaks for itself in terms of where he is likely to finish tonight. Pass.<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>7 NASCAR SEELSTER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b> </b></i></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Has been off since the fall, when he was knocking heads with Gold colts and some grand circuit types. Upon his return, he gets lasix, gets a new driver in Henry, who also qualified him twice and is doing some steady driving for MacIntosh and gets in this class because they added a nw5 life to the condition. He never looks sound parading, and sometimes in the race, but he seems to go with it. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>This is such a weak and iffy bunch, he is in with a shot.</b></i></span> MacIntosh brings them off the shelf ready, so there is that. Tough call on him as he is tough to figure at this stage.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>8 ROCKIN WIZARD</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Drops in class off two decent efforts a class above, and he looks like the one, although he comes with the baggage that he doesn't always produce when you think he will, like many that inhabit this class. The equalizer in this case is post 8. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>I'd like his chances to get home first a lot better if he had the 5 or 6 hole and could get out near the lead without being used hard to do it.</b></i></span> That makes me think something in here takes him down whichever way they decide to race him. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>9 RED JOHN</b></i></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Was solid last week racing from off the pace, and pretty much resigned to racing for 2nd money, which he did and got. Post 9 gravely hurts his chances, and I'll pass on him with that crutch in place.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 8 </b></u></span><br /><br /><i><b>1 SOUTHWIND MASIMO</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Was claimed Monday and comes right back here on Saturday, off a weak effort and in for a higher tag if he was tagged.<span style="color: red;"><i><b> He is hard to like,</b></i></span> and Puddy and Carmen basically do the same thing, although Carmen tends to do it slightly better overall. Not enough for me to play him, but he is not impossible. Carmen does very well with Bettors Delight and Art Major horses, East End and Major Hill being two recent ones he claimed and stepped up, but his slow starts overall, added to the likelihood the rail makes it an even deeper deficit at the half, I can't see him bridging that gap late at this level. Lets see how he looks on the barn change. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 ATOMIC MILLION AM</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Was off stride before the start last time, although that was not charted. He made a decent recovery, grinded it out and got it done, but he was life and death to hold off Red John, who was daylighted last week by the chalk in this race. He also moves up significantly here. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He appears to have lost a couple of steps from the top form he showed at this track a couple of years ago.</b></i></span> He is likely a class mover and dropper if he hangs around and doesnlt head back to Quebec for the summer. Pass for me. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 MR WIGGLE PANTS</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Was laid off after rising up the ranks last fall and doing very well. He probably isnt a Preferred horse at this track, and he would have to face those if he kept racing. He returned a step above this level, did little but took his time down marginally. He picks up McNair here for his loyal owner, <span style="color: red;"><i><b>but he would have to do more. He has a decent shot if he does.</b></i></span> If the price was right, I would think he is worth a flyer. I'd use him in the multi race plays as a viable price spicer.</span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 ROCK THIS WAY</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Comes in off a win, in which he was the longest shot on the board, the track was terrible, and he seemed to benefit from others not liking it. He gets back in to basically the same level, and at times, he shows big talent. At this point, he is clearly a stalker and closer, and he shows 27 and change on every line at the end on the page.<span style="color: red;"><i><b> My thing with him is he doesn't usually show up week to week.</b></i></span> I will pass on him for that reason. These are not as soft as some he beats.<br /><i><b></b></i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 SHADOW MARGEAUX</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b></b></i>Left well last time, sat a loose pocket on the sharp front ender, who daylighted them and hung in well, but he did try to close the gap in the 3rd quarter and tired as a result. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He does his best work when he leaves and then does very little during the middle half of the race but maintain his position.</b></i></span> He did move up to this level last time, but he has been good enough at this level before and the chalk here is moving up also this time. He has good upset potential if you aren't sold on the 6.<br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>6 MODERN REFLECTION</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Had just about everything in his favor last time. A class drop, a very soft bunch to contend with, a switch to Moreau and picking up Roy. He didn't waste any of that as he let the dust settle then moved to the top and said goodbye to the field on the turn, coasting home. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>These are tougher and wont lie down like most of those did. I see enough contenders in here to think something will take him down</b></i></span> if he is challenged earlier and forced to pace on late under pressure. I will go against him completely in anything and go deeper with some other viable chancy type.<br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>7 E L WILD SPIRIT</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b> </b></i></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Picked off a soft claiming bunch last time, first time off the claim. That was a solid effort, but most of these wouldn't even be in for that tag. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>The suicide fractions he closed into that race favored him and he isn't likely to get that edge here.</b></i></span> Bit player in my view.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>8 HALF A BILLION</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Comes in with pretty good form and <span style="color: red;"><i><b>gets to drop a level.</b></i></span> <span style="color: red;"><i><b>He loses Trevor, but picks up JJ, who has done well with him before, and at big odds.</b></i></span> This horse knows how to win and his trainer has been hot of late. He is one I would use as a legit long shot with a chance if they mix it up and he is sitting on live cover with a chance to tip late enough to time the wire. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 9</b></u></span><br /><br /><i><b>1 KAZIMOTO</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Has nice tactical leaving speed and he seems to show up every week and race. He has been managed well by his owner/breeder, slash sometimes trainer. As such, he has banked 75k mostly in overnights and he is still early into his 4yo year. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>In 5 tries with these since winning, he has been hanging around but not able to beat them all.</b></i></span> He draws inside again and I would think gets the same trip he has been. He beat all but the winner last time, who he meets again. He has a reasonable shot if things go his way. I will look to others for the win position, as I wouldn't take less than 7-2 on this one, and that is probably what he is going to bring. If I was going to roll the dice against anything in the late pick 4, he is the one I would leave off and take a shot with something else. He finds ways to get beat, like being shuffled back last time, because he needs that soft trip to finish his best. McNair could have pulled him first up, but he chose not to. That gets horses beat.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 SWELLENDAM</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Seems to be a bit of a late bloomer, as some Bettors Delight's can be. He did win his share last year although he didn't race much, and then stalled this year before being <span style="color: red;"><i><b>moved from Adams to Galucci, which has proven a very successful move in the past for many of that stables stock.</b></i></span> He improved sharply in the first try and only was beaten by a decent horse in Humboldt, and last time drew post 10 and went the trip you expect with most of those. Trevor had a fantastic night last night, and if he can get him the trip he got Musical Spell and find a seam late, he is possible at a decent price. Trevor and Galucci have an ROI of $3.41 together. So so shot type. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 LYONS WILLIAM</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Is the prototype Big Jim type. He has ability, he can leave and go a long way on the front, but sometimes he shows up, sometimes he doesn't. Sometimes he trips out, sometimes he doesn't and caves in. Lance claimed him and improved him 2nd out and has now protected him back in condition races. JJ made the backstretch move to the top last time, but he caved late. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>If he could leave and somehow get someone to cover him up, he could win this like he did with that type of trip on March 19th.</b></i></span> This is not a deep group but mediocre like him. He is 6 for 23 over the last two years. That tells you that when the trip favors him, he wins his share and doesn't get beat on the line, like many in here. Another shot type. </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 SAULSBROOK LANNY</b></i></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b> </b></i></span><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Looked like a pretty nice prospect last year, but he <span style="color: red;"><i><b>doesnt look nearly as desirable now that the Brealey potion is not in the cabinet on race day.</b></i></span> He was dead last all the way last time with most of these as his competition. I have to see something positive from him with these connections now calling the shots to consider him anything more than a rat who was juiced up. Watching for a sign of that. <br /><i><b></b></i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 ROSE RUN SLIDER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b></b></i>Took a decent mark at 2 and looked like he might be an okay bottom end stakes horse. But he has done little since and was moved to the new connections in March. Last time, away last, he moved wide with some apparent pace but <span style="color: red;"><i><b>started to put in steps many times on the turn and coming out of it. </b></i></span>He finished even. He has some ability if he can be driven start to finish. I think he might pop for a big price if all can be rectified, but as he was so noticably steppy last time, I want to see him get around clean and be driven to win. I will pass this time. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>6 GILLYS BOY</b></i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;"><i><b>Was babied off the gate by Roy last time,</b></i></span> and that is something he has needed from time to time. He picked up decent cover and that carried him into a good position mid stretch, <span style="color: red;"><i><b>but he hung and didn't look right.</b></i></span> With Roy winning at the rate he does, and the lines this horse shows on the page, I will take my shot against his likely short price. He appears to be tailing off to me, and he isn't really a durable type as it is. <br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>7 OLLIESTRIKESFAME</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Has <span style="color: red;"><i><b>always impressed me as a horse with a lot of upside if he could get his head together.</b></i></span> J Mac did an excellent job getting him to that point, as well as his previous trainer, and last time he put it all together as he tipped off cover and blew by them all. He goes to a new trainer tonight but stays with the same ownership. He has won 2 of his last 3 in this class, and he is the likely 6-5 favorite. I like him as an include in the multi race things, but I would go elsewhere for the straight winner. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: blue;"><u><b>RACE 10 </b></u></span><br /><br /><i><b>1 CHARMBO CHROME</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Won his 2nd last race at the bottom level condition, beating a decent one in Adversity, who came back to win last week. Last time, he hit a terrible wet track and </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">it ended up being a field of six, which was actually 4 when the gate sped away and two of them ran. He sat a loose 4th all the way, not under much urging, but was asked on the turn and looked to not be grabbing the track, as the pace also picked up. He was home 4th. This is not a soft bunch for this class, and while I can give him a pass on the last race because of the track and watch him for a better spot, <b><i><span style="color: red;">I can't see him for the win tonight.</span></i></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>2 SOUTHWIND TESLA</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Has been aimed at the top shelf types since she was a yearling, but while she showed some ability to go with them at times, she earned a decent buck mostly taking smaller shares. She was also prone to running, and she was stopped with last fall. She qualified back okay and then came right off the shelf and won her first start, but, that was against I Jasmin, who rarely wins, and Give Angel Credit, who isn't much stock at all. The back half was only a minute, and she only had to show up with her inherent ability to pass that bunch. These are far tougher as she moves up. <i><span style="color: red;"><b>Her slower starts will start to cost her when she reaches this level,</b></span></i> as they wont be as easy to pass. Wait and see what she shows me. Pass for tonight.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>3 KAMERAN HANOVER</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Doesn't race much, as his breeding would suggest he has a lot of talent, but the lameness issues to go with it. Last time, he was gapping from the get go, and made little advance the entire way. It was like CC sensed he wasn't good to go this night and just got him around. In the process, he held up Mighty Nicky, who stayed on his back too long, hoping he would go forward and carry him. <span style="color: red;"><i><b>On his good days, he can take this bunch, and we cant ignore that Henriksen is a noted trotting master and can fix whatever it was last time.</b></i></span> He is one I'd have to use in the multi race wagers, but he is hard to play for the straight win off that poor showing last time. He is 15 for 19 to hit the ticket the last two years, so he generally doesn't put in many bad ones like last time. If you have room, use him. </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>4 WESMONT</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><i><span style="color: red;">Seems to have hit a class wall at this level.</span></i></b> Last time, he left out well, was sitting a good 3rd, but gapping and that gap got wider the farther they went. He was simply out trotted. It could be any number of things, but either he is tired from racing steady week after week since last summer, he is just at a level he cant go with, or his late start to his racing career has forced him to meet a higher level earlier than he is ready for. Either way, to me, it adds up to minor shares at this level as long as there are decent contenders, which there are this time.<br /><br /><i><b></b></i></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b>5 ACHILLE DUHARAS</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b></b></i>Looks very tough with this bunch. Something went wrong going to the gate on March 17th, but other than that, he has been solid and impressive. They aimed him at the Hambo at 3 and paid Takter to get him there, and he didn't pan out. But obviously, you don't do that unless you think you have some pretty good stock. He shows winning on March 10th from the rail in 53 and change, beating a tough talented customer in Vero Amore Bi, and other solid ones. Last time he was geared down late and even an all out Mighty Nicky was racing for 2nd.<b><i><span style="color: red;"> I don't think we have seen his best yet this spring, and he is still heading for top form.</span></i></b> I'm not sold on singling him, but he is certainly an overweight in the multi wagers for me, even with him likely going off 3-5. <br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>6 FRENCH BASTILLE</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> Has <b><i><span style="color: red;">always been useful but mediocre, and he continues to be that,</span></i></b> with a bit more zip since Henriksen got him gaited right and Moreau got him finishing better. Now he finds himself at a level where that will get him small shares. Last week he caught a short field and it got shorter at the gate, and he simply sat on the front with no challengers and held 2nd while he was wildly outclassed by the winner who toyed with them. It was an okay effort, which is what you get from him most nights. I'd like to see him tagged before I go back to him. Pass for me.<br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>7 MIGHTY NICKY</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Has proven to be a <span style="color: red;"><i><b>solid claim for Galucci, and now that he is reunited with J Mac, he is finding his groove.</b></i></span> As mentioned above, last time he sat back, as he is usually doing, but he got gapped out by one who was not keeping up. He went around that one, went first up and went after the winner, whom he meets again, but was no match and probably wouldn't have beat him with the trip he had to go to get to that point even if he has the talent to take that one down. We wont know until he gets a better trip and takes a fair shot at him. He has a minor shot if he can find a better and earlier flow. Or maybe he is content to be 2nd until the bearcat in the making wins out and/or moves on and up the ladder. The addition of lasix in the new barn has made him an even more potent closer than he was before, and he was already that anyway. They have upped the lifetime earnings condition to let him in this class, and being short of horses, I'd expect them to do that again next time until he shows he is 2-5 the best. Tough call. I'd be inclined to single the chalk and roll the dice he doesn't pick him off.<br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>8 MYSTICAL MISSION</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b> </b></i></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Was struggling with Baillargeon, but came alive and had a very nice run with A Mac. He <span style="color: red;"><i><b>has tailed off sharply as of late with the switch to McGinnis</b></i></span> as head trainer, and whatever the reason, he looks well over his head with these to make the ticket. He will need to be tagged or drop back to the bottom condition again to get me looking at him as a contender.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><b></b></i> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><i><b>9 ONE OF THE FEW</b></i></span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Took Oceanview Deb from a good post and a pocket trip, but since moving up has not been as potent and has missed 3 weeks. He did have some interference last time, and he has showed some flashes of talent along the way. With the bad post tonight, <span style="color: red;"><i><b>I will watch to see where he is at if he draws better next time</b></i></span> and avoids the logical top 2 in here. </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-39825038477240021022018-02-15T13:52:00.003-08:002018-02-15T13:52:47.531-08:00Woodbine harness week in review<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">TRIP NOTES</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>About A Boy</b> never had any room to go forward</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Casimir Quasimodo</b> solid late close off cover,
improving</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>Confident Fella</b></span> <span style="font-size: small;">seemed very live, had to alter course
stretch but went forward again.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Dreams On Me</b> good late close for first time starter</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Fight Again</b> <span style="font-size: small;">fts. Only raced from ¾ to wire but was
going forward willingly</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Stormy Cash </b>finished strong. Learning to be a
racehorse</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>Thrownoutofbetter</b></span><span style="font-size: small;"> getting better every time, weaved
thru traffic late</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Twin B Epic</b> ugly steps the entire way</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>Artistic Madison</b></span> closed huge from an impossible spot</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Asa Onamission</b> </span><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">traveled well the
entire way, popped plugs mid stretch, under wraps, never urged</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Flying Isa N</b> looked to be struggling to get hold of
the track</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Give Angel Credit</b> struggles a lot trotting behind</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Kinda Like Her</b> post cost her chance, left out,
shuffle, held up, split horses late with pace and went forward</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Kloof Street</span> </b>closed well, has some hidden form</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Shooteronbye</b> tough luck trip. Backed into.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Sr Beach Babe</b> lacked room stretch, but was going
forward</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>Buttermilk Hanover</b> </span>on poor cover, strong late close</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Credit Risk</b> strong late close but <span style="color: red;">on the right line
bad</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Exhilarated </b>wired them much the best</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Lets Wait And See</b> strong late close from well back</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Major Hill</b> on suspect cover, kept going forward late</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Ramblingamblinman</b> left out hard, no hole, tuck,
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Rockin In Heaven</b> lacked racing room till mid stretch</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Charmbo Orbit</b> closed very fast into a fast back half</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Clever Thing</b> </span></span><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">lacked room to go
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Etruscan Hanover<i><span style="color: red;"> best he’s ever been</span></i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Jimmys Secret</b> decent close from far out of it</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Legend Within</b> sat last, trotted a strong mile to
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Mcsinner Man</b> </span><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">held up backfield,
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Trisun</b> lost a tire after the half</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>Western Tyrant </b>very hard used to make the lead</span><br />
<br />
<u><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Data notes</span></b></span></span></u><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Feb 8th.....post 1 and 2 no wins. <span style="background-color: yellow;">post 6 won 5 races and controlled the front end</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Feb 9th..... </span><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">post 5, strong bias to those making the front. <span style="color: red;">Jordies Hope and Dangerous Precedent took huge advantage of that.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Feb 10th....</span><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">none</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Feb 12th....post 6 controlled the front and won 4 races</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><i><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: lime;"> </span></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: lime;"><span style="color: #274e13;">-3rd favorite has not won a race last 3 cards. </span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: lime;">-race 6 due for a longshot, likely the 4th or 5th fave </span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: lime;">-post 2, no wins last 2 cards </span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: lime;">-post 5 and 6 very good this month, post 4 worst percentage post this month </span></span></span><i><span style="color: red;"><span style="color: lime;"><br /></span></span></i></span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><u><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Live horses on performance ratings</span></b></span></span></u></span><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">About A Boy</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Artistic Madison</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Azucar</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Blue Line</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Casimir Quasimodo</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Classy Dragon</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Cue Hall</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Dazzling Rockette</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Docs Sausalito</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Every Time</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Kloof Street</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Lets Wait And See</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Savannah Smiles</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Sodwana Bay</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Twin B Epic</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Undrafted</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Upvote Hanover</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Whozyomomma</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: red;">Note Savannah Smiles and Twin B Epic rate high on performance form, but have spotty or troubling on track signs that make them post time calls based on value and soundness. </span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial Black",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">horses highlighted in yellow rate high on trip notes AND performance ratings. </span> </span></div>
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Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-62514033479153422792018-02-15T12:19:00.000-08:002018-02-15T12:29:55.852-08:00Yonkers harness week in review feb 8 9 10<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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mso-para-margin-left:0in;
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">TRIP NOTES</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Acting Out bad fave, gapping the entire way. Non
trier.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Admiral first up, cleared a stopping leader,
held well</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Annapolis Hall leans in hard on turns, but has
go when he is right. Likely better on a bigger track</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Arsenic lacks desire to pace forward when that
chance is there</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Ashok Ace first over into the pace, decent
effort, hung in there</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Awol Hanover never looked good, borderline
lame, very sore at the least</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Blow A Cloud N 2<sup>nd</sup> best to strong
winner</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Border Control A pocket trip. 2<sup>nd</sup>
best, no match for the winner.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Card Shock every chance, no good</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Celia Cantaba</span> tough trip, lots of road trouble. Looked live, for
these types. Post hurt.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Chilled Desire A rail and trip was a huge
advantage. Gritty mare but not sound</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Classic American N dead aim on winner, hung a
shade</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Dedi`s Dragon wants to bear out stretch</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Diamond Cowboy wired them, tons the best</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Dull Roar first over, ground out tough win. Solid.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Flamingo Pete not good enough</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Fox Valley Herbie no factor, could never keep
up</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Grand Master post hurt, never tried, brushed
late. Training mile</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Grand Theft </span><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">held up mid race, might
have cost him a better finish</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Gypsy Leather no factor off easy trip</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> High Glider wired them, mtb, no competition.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Holiday Promise travels well, one speed type
who wont pass</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Hybrid Henry pt trip, even in stretch</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Keystone I Wish pt trip, 2<sup>nd</sup> best,
winner had a bit more</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Law Of Attraction bearing in turns, on left
line straightaways, but has some finish if you can get it around.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Lmc Mass Gem wired a suspect bunch</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Luciano N huge trip from post 7 on front, took
them a long way</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Macon Georgia A never looked good, packed it in
before 3/4</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Madison Muscle no go at all. Even with a
mediocre bunch</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Mariner Seelster</span> inside trip, bad luck mid race, flew home late.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Natural Leda 2<sup>nd</sup> over on winners
cover, 2<sup>nd</sup> best but ok enough</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Neptune`s Daughter left terrible from rail</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Newbie big wide move on turn, couldn’t mow down
leader</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Our Els Dream N gaps when the pace picks up</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Pappy Go Go blasted out, but took an awkward
step on the turn. Was mtb if he doesn’t blow up</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Passthecrownaround bearing in early, stepped on
a wheel at half.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Perfect Bet looked very live, wide much of the
way, hung in lane, but had a reason to.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Perfect Stick raced well, but looks very lame
behind</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Pingaling</span> big late close from a tough start.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Preparty broke down lame type.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Quick Summer sore, feels it late</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Romancing Rachel left hard from outside. 2<sup>nd</sup>
best.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Royal Heart even. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Secrecy lacked room when he needed it, might
have been better.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Short Term Memory easy winner on soft bunch</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Sky Guy </span><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif;">gapped
his cover when he should have gone forward</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Somethinginthenite</span> longshot, left hard, yielded, leader backed
into her a bit, then when forward when free.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Sports Bettor pt trip, went even</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Statham N doesn’t look<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>pretty, especially on the turns, but he goes
forward when asked, hung tough. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Techtor Hanover wired them. Decent but trip
favored him</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Texas Terror N first up, raced ok, but got jump
on field when leader stopped</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">The Lunch Pail</span> deceptive good form. A better post might move him
up</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Thereisapaceforus</span> bad shuffle behind stopper, came on again
late.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Thirty Two Red pocket trip. Backing away from
half.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Tougher Than Ever lucky trip. Pulls hard in the
hole but needs to be saved.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Trading Up decent but outpaced for 3rd</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Trotamundo 3<sup>rd</sup> quarter bid,
flattened out on turn.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Village Beat </span><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">pt trip, leader
stopped in front of him. Bad luck trip.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Adonis Bay wired them, ready to rock from the
get go</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Ambro Courage N 2<sup>nd</sup> best, solid mile</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> American Island moved wide, looked live, flat
late, on left line quite a bit</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Annabeth flat off good trip</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Ardie B Speed</span> let suspect leader go, had to weave out, ducked
back in, could pop off that trip</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Armabluechipboy N from well back, decent 4th</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Betabcool N</span> troubled trip, no room late. Very sharp</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Bettor Reason N</span> tried to leave, had to sit, then excess cover, came
late for 3rd</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Bettors Glass</span> lacked a lane to be driven hard, but went forward
late.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Big Jer</span> lacked room to go forward at times, possible overlay
next start.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Brown Brinny driven hard, moved early and spent
late.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Cheyenne Reider left hard, solid 2<sup>nd</sup>
best.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Copper Coast A made the lead, spit the bit</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Cousin Mary oal noticeably, but she keeps
going.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Dalton Did It gapping bad the entire way</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Dreamzzzz R For U left out, pulls hard, first
up, on line bad, stopped to a walk</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Eclipse Me N not sound, on left line bad.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Fanticipation solid 2<sup>nd</sup> best. Winner
was a cinch</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Fiery Lustre N mtb, toyed with them</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Flash Lauxmont hard used to make lead, stopped
to a walk</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Freeze Out used hard a few times, cut it,
stopped late</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Galactic Galleon N solid mile, post disadvantage
hurt a bit.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Gina Grace N hard puller, first up, ground down
chalk, held firm</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Heels On The Beach going backward most of the
way</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Hi Ho Steverino</span> slow start, good late gains from that trip.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Inspiration View</span> saved ground, had to swing out wide, fast
closing 2nd</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Jag Out driven off her feet into first turn</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Jewel Lehigh A pocket trip. Could have moved at
any time</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Juxta Cowgirl dirty break leaving</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Keystone Wanda blasted out, stalked, finished
well, trip horse</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Know It All bit of road trouble might have cost
her, trouble pulling plugs as well.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Lawgiver Hanover</span> first over, tough trip, made lead, but coughed
up late</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Lightning Mach N used hard to get and hold
lead, on a line a bit, faded late</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Midnight Dylan N blasted out, spent by 3/4</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Miss Irish Rose A cut it, couldn’t finish with
top 2</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> More Than Many locked on right line in turns.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Motu Moonbeam N</span> tough first over trip. Winner is very stubborn</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Oh Jonny B Good N no pace the entire mile</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Persistent Threat A well meant, driven hard and
kept at it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Pierce on the left line bad, never looked good.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">R Caan</span> very wide from ¾, steamrolled home but ran out of stretch</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Rocklindarock wants to run out bad</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Secrets Out N</span> lacked room to go forward, might pop off that if
she draws well next time</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Stolen Car tough first over effort, nailed on
line by one he covered up</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Sudden Change N locked on a line bearing in
horribly</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Tracey`s Desire solid 2<sup>nd</sup> best,
winner was very sharp and had jump</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Undertaker solid mile, 2<sup>nd</sup> over,
winner was better.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Vorst</span> flying late off very bad start.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> War Daddy backed out of the pocket, leader
wired them</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Western Bayama odds on, 2<sup>nd</sup> over,
just up in time, driven hard.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Wild Again parked the mile from 8 hole</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> All Down The Line moved 3 wide early. Flattened out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Badix Hanover ugly steps last turn, <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">claimed</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Cheyenne Jeffrey pt trip. even</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Don`tcallmefrancis<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>no finish off easy trip</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Le Reveur N over his head in the stretch.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Lord Of Misrule first over into the pace,
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Macintosh N mtb</span></div>
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night</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Mostinterestingman mtb</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Mr Right Hanover well back the entire way</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Panchester United</span> moved up inside, lacked chance at times solid
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Prime Power N post 1 start might have factored
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<div class="MsoNormal">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Royal Bachelor</span> inside trip, angled late, looked live.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Santa Fe Beachboy first over, wilted</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Simeon on left line</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Soho Wallstreet A had trouble grabbing track,
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Starsky`s Dream N on good cover, gapped and
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Swing City raced big considering post
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<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Western Hill cut the mile, picked off by
pocketsitter</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Zooming easy winner, on front, which was golden
this night</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Data notes</span></b></span></span></u><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Feb 8th.....no significant factors</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Feb 9th..... <i><span style="color: red;">post 7 left unusually well and all 4 hung in or won <span style="color: lime;">front wasnt very good, stalkers did better, but no deep closers</span></span></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial black" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Feb 10th....<i><span style="color: red;">post 1 was terrible, post 2 won 7 races and outleft the 1 in almost every race ,<span style="color: lime;"> horse on the lead kept the lead to the stretch every race but 1, but were picked off late half the time. </span></span><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<br />
<br /></div>
Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-17361053636396309542018-02-05T11:09:00.006-08:002018-02-05T11:09:55.498-08:00Horse Training...these are the days of our lives. The beginnings.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/vAiqeB4p028/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vAiqeB4p028?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of our lives.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Training
horses is like a soap opera, it really is. The only difference being
that in a soap opera, they show you all the details of the trauma. If
you are a horse racing fan, you rarely get to see what really happens
during the entire week when the horse is not on the track for 10 minutes
in front of you. Every trainer, groom and horse has a story that never
gets told or that is never known by the average guy.<br />I have mentioned
Emersons Paradise in passing in many blogs. Near the end of my training
days, he was my best horse. Best in terms of earning money. He was
never really more than a cheap claimer, but he was sound, honest and a
very nice horse to deal with. He did what he was told and he was happy
as long as he was fed and got his paddock time to run free as much as
possible. He was a joy to be around. He was just happy to be a horse and
be well cared for. After he was done racing, I gave him away to a nice
family with some kids, and they thought he was Secretariat. He was like a
pet, and they basked in him and he with them. But, it wasn't the first
time I'd had him in his career.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">When
he was just a colt, 3 years old, I spotted him warming up one day when I
was at the races on an off day. He looked to be a perfect horse for me,
after a string that were not. For a trainer who doesn't have to pay a
training bill, or a groom, he could earn well for me and I could bank
the profit. Not a good horse for an owner who had to pay all the bills.
He was zero vet work, he was healthy most of the time, and he would earn
steady if you put him in the right spot class wise and race wise every
week. I think I won 3 races with him in the 6 or 7 months I had him the
first time around, and he was claimed for exactly what I paid for him
when I lost him. I was sorry to see him go, but I was in the racing
game, not the barn pets game. I always kept my eye on him for the
remaining years until I got him back. The last guy who had him couldn't
do anything with him, and I approached him about either selling him to
me, or letting me train him on a lease. He decided on the lease, and
when I made him perform right away, and he was worth almost what he had
paid for him, he decided to just sell him to me. He was good for me for
another 2 years before some minor injuries and older age caught up with
him.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">But,
the story of how I got to him and what I did after I lost him the first
time around is what this blog is about. I will do it in parts, as its a
long story. Just like a soap opera is. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Before
Emersons Paradise the first time around I had gotten myself into a bad
situation. I had a day job, a very good one in terms of money, and also a
small stable of cheap horses which I inherited as a trainer--one who
had never trained or groomed anything before, because my trainer could
not handle them anymore. Out of the 5 he had for me as an owner, I took 3
that I wanted, and sold him the other one, while the 5th one was
basically worthless to anybody and we gave her away for nothing. I
started from there. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Nothing
was race ready when I got them. They were still racehorses to some
degree or the other. One was a turned out mare that I had bought to race
and then breed. She injured herself fairly quickly right after I'd
bought her, and she also wasn't very fertile as it turns out. So, she
was being rested, and I thought I'd either try to breed her again, or
get her back to the races. I was told by everyone who thought they knew
better that her bowed tendon would preclude her from racing ever again.
It was ugly, no doubt about that. When she arrived on the trailer with
another one, she was dog lame. I couldn't figure out why, but it didn't
appear to be her bad leg, as there was no heat in that and she didn't
flinch at all when you touched her there. I turned her out and she
walked lame, with a limp. After a day, a guy at the barn I had picked to
train told me she had a big nail stuck in the middle of her foot. I
held her head, he pulled it out, the blood came pouring out, and 2 days
later she was completely sound. I didn't have time for her at this point
anyway, so I just turned her out every day and let her run. And run she
did. She was completely sound in the paddock and almost fit enough to
race. She was very energetic and ran the paddock all day. That would be
something I noted when I did get her back to the races. Her name was
Almahurst Loraine, a big strapping, bossy and fast mare. She was big and
strong, and if you didn't know better, you would say I had Niatross in
the paddock. She looked just like him, and her mother was by Niatross. I
had high hopes for her as a broodmare, but that never worked out.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The
second one was called Eddie Lebec, named after the character on Cheers.
I didn't name him. I bought him as an unraced 2yo when he didn't make
it to the races for the people that bought him as a yearling. I paid
very little, they paid too much. I thought he looked okay, he had good
breeding, he was healthy and had no injuries. I thought I would take a
shot. I went half with the trainer, but he couldn't make him go, and
didn't want him, so I decided to take him on. It was a risky move for a
novice trainer with no experience at all. One thing about him though, he
was well behaved. He would do just about everything you asked, and he
had some speed and grit. When a horse would come up beside him, even a
racehorse that was much faster than him, he would not let them pass. He
would go as far as he could until their advanced stage of development
was too much for him at that point. I knew he would take a while, as he
hadn't been trained at all in 2 months. I started back with him slowly,
just jogging and building him up, seeing what he was like, reading what I
could to see what I could do with him to make him into a racehorse and
valuable to me. I thought he would make it eventually, if I took my time
and let him develop. I didn't really ask much of him until the warmer
weather came back, so he wasn't much work either.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The
3rd one was the easiest to work with, in terms of me knowing virtually
nothing practical about training. He was perfect gaited, wore very
little equipment, stood quietly and waited for you to give him his cue,
and knew his way to the track and back. When you turned him to train
fast, he did that and understood his job. I literally could not go wrong
with a starter horse like this. He was the one I worked with and on
every day either before work or after, sometimes both. When I had more
time, when the days got longer, or on the weekends, I would fiddle with
the other two and do more work on them. There was no rush. I was making
very good money at my day job and I was taking my time and learning. I
also had no truck or trailer, so it wasn't like I was going to go
anywhere anytime soon with them when they were ready to go to the
racetrack. It was a process, learning on the job, trial and error. Let
me tell you, there were lots of errors. This horses' name was Edward
Seelster, a horse I had claimed a year or more before for a group of
friends to learn the owning game. He was also a cheap horse, like
Emersons Paradise, and they were similar. Edward was small, steady,
stout, consistent and easy to work with. Edward was another horse I
bought back later in his life, and that is a story for another day. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">When
we first got him, there was a lot of room for improvement on the
previous trainer, and we did that. He won his first start, and then was
2nd 3 times in a row after that. The money was good where he raced, and
we did well. Eventually, he started to make smaller amounts only, and
then got sore, so we shut him down in November. He arrived on my
doorstep so to speak around February. I had hoped to have him ready by
mid May, and was on track for that. It ended up he didn't get there
until late June.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">One
thing about Edward is he didn't like being in his stall. In a perfect
world, I would have lived at the farm I trained at, turned him out
almost all the time, then just brought him in to train and put him right
back out. He would have lasted and stayed healthier under those
circumstances. I put him out with Loraine whenever he wasn't training
and she was outside, and they were perfect mates. She was bossy and
dominant, he was a happy go lucky gelding who knew his place and just
let her boss him around. It was a perfect marriage for the two of them.
She ran a lot, and she made him run...chased him to run, if he didn't
want to. On the days I didn't have enough time to jog him, or it was too
dark when I arrived, I put them out together for an hour while I did
the stalls and that was enough to keep him fit. On the weekends I would
train him as fast as he was fit to go at that point, and he was getting
close to race speed. I trained him one last time in early May, and he
was a week away from going to the track to prepare to race again for
money. I couldn't have been more happy with him and the job I'd done,
considering how little I knew then. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">One
thing about Edward, his biggest flaw was he had a bad stomach. That was
manageable, but it was an issue to watch. He would tie up, and if you
don't know what that is, its basically muscle cramps where he seizes up
and doesn't want to move. The best thing for those types of horses is to
always keep them moving. So, one night, just before he was to go to the
track to train, I left him outside in a small pen beside the barn. I'd
done that while I was there a few times, and he was good in it. He
couldn't get out on his own, and it was to be a warm enough night to
make it a good idea. In this case though, he didn't have Loraine to
watch over him and his back.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
arrived very early the next morning, before work, and the sun had just
come up. I saw Edward, and something wasn't right. There was blood all
over his legs, and the little small pen had been torn up. My guess was
that some wolves had tried to corner him and kill him, and he fought
back, enough that they didn't succeed. Anyway, that set me back on him 3
weeks waiting for him to heal.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Wolves
were an issue in that area. You saw them off in the distance every now
and then when you jogged the horses on the track, and the odd time you
would see one actually on the track. There are 3 types of horses and how
they react to seeing a wolf. The first kind, like Eddie Lebec will keep
going forward but shy towards the inside of the track to avoid getting
close to them. That is the majority of them. The second kind, some of
them, are the Edward Seelster types who see them, stop in their tracks,
and turn completely around to go in the other direction. Most of those
also want off the track and back to the barn, where its safe. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Then
there are the very few, the 3rd kind, who will not only not shy or turn
around, but make a B line right to the wolves and attack them.
Almahurst Loraine did that a few times when I jogged her. She was
fearless and brave. As long as Edward was in the paddock with her, he
was safe. She would kill anything that got near them. When I went to get
Edward, I had to put feed on the other side of the paddock so she would
be occupied and let me take him. Otherwise, she was the boss and I was
not allowed in their space.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Since
Edward was off for 3 weeks, other than to take care of his legs and
bring them back to proper standing, I began to jog Loraine and also do
more work with Eddie Lebec. Eddie Lebec was tricky. He had a hitchy
gait, and I had to play around with his shoeing and equipment to manage
it. That was using skills I really didn't have yet, so as I said
earlier, at that stage it was trial and error. By the time I got him
close to race speed, I had him right. All the pieces came together. He
was never perfect, but he was viable and he did very well when I first
started him at the track. He showed that determined desire to lead and
not give up the lead, and that got him 3 wins in his first 6 starts. He
turned out to be my best earner that summer. The guy that had him before
me, my previous trainer, and also still a good friend, watched him race
and couldn't believe he was the same horse. I had done a good job
making him into something. I was proud of myself for that. Eventually,
he was kind of lame, as he had suspect ankles that only got worse over
time, but I kept him over for the next season. That was a mistake. I
could have sold him for decent money and a good profit after the 3rd
win, but I didn't. Live and learn. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Jogging
Loraine was another matter entirely. Jogging would be a loose, but
inaccurate way to describe what she did. Loraine didn't jog, not often
anyway, and not willingly. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">She
was scary. There is no other way to say it. I felt I took my life into
my hands every time I took her out to go onto the track. She was so
strong, so determined to do it her way, to go as fast as she could as
soon as she could, that I couldn't control her. As they say in the game,
I was just a passenger when I sat behind her. It wasn't jogging, it was
survival.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Being
that I was by myself much of the time, the biggest danger was letting
go of the crossties and having her bolt forward before I could get
seated and have some measure of control of her on the pathway to the
track. If I could do that, I could at least try and keep her slow. Even
with that, she would pull so hard you could only go a lap or two and
then either let her go full out, or take her back to the barn. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
tried to take her out mostly on the weekends, when I could get someone
to lead her out and try to stop her from gaining a head of steam. Once
she did that, it was game over. That worked for a while, but with Edward
on the shelf, I ended up taking her out to
"jog" every night. I feared and dreaded it every
time. It like thinking you are driving your car, but you know the brakes
likely will not work. <br /></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Next part to come shortly.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-21559767196105152742018-02-02T11:59:00.001-08:002018-02-02T12:15:01.510-08:00How was your night? Mine was pretty good, even though it wasn't.<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Note,
this blog was intended to be purely a message and lesson blog, but it
turned mostly into a story blog when I got going doing that. That is how
it goes sometimes. A short blog became long. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">C'est
la vie. That's just the way it goes sometimes, and no, I'm not going to
post the Robbie Nevil song if you think I was leading to that. I'm
cutting down on the music links in the blogs, in a mindful way.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />A common convo heard in barns and households of trainers and horse players.<br /><span style="color: blue;"><i><b><br /></b></i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="color: blue;"><i><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">"have any luck last night?"</span></span></b></i></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="color: blue;"><i><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">"No, no luck."</span></span></b></i></span></div>
<span style="color: blue;"><i><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">"Better luck next time."</span></span></b></i></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><i><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></i></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Back
when I was racing horses I raced a lot at places like Belleville and
Sudbury. I hated Belleville, because the money was so bad, the
conditions to work were so bad, and the horses and drivers were
terrible, but for 2 or 3 drivers. I did like many of the people, as they
had more fun than many I raced against. They were part timers and just
doing it for fun, and weren't as focused and edgy as many racing people
can be. It was 2.5 hours each way, and a long night. <br />Sudbury was
okay. The money was great, my horses fit well there, and I had a decent
relationship with 2 or 3 better drivers at that track. I made good money
most times I went there. Not every time, but almost all the time. So, I
decided to cut Belleville altogether and just go to Sudbury. The
problem was I live in Toronto and Sudbury was 5 hours each way. I got to
where I was going every Wednesday and Saturday, and it was wearing me
down, taking a toll. I did all the jobs, groom, trainer, shipper, and
any other job required in my barn. I was my barn. No help. I didn't
really mind that, in fact I enjoyed it. I'm a hard worker, and even a
tireless one to some extent. As long as its fun and there is a purpose
to the activity. </span></span><span style="color: blue;"><i><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></b></i></span><br />
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">So,
I decided to take 4 horses to Sudbury and stable there for a while,
then see how it went. That meant being away from home most of the time,
but I could leave the horses for a day or two---on Sunday and Monday, as
long as they were racing steady, and just pay someone to take care of
them on those days, and go back home. That was a hardship, but it was
worth it if I could make a decent amount of money for a couple of
months, and hopefully sell the ones that could not race closer to home
for decent money. That was the plan. It should have been a good plan,
but it was a very bad plan in actual practice.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I had one horse that should have done well at Sudbury, and that was <b>Emersons Paradise.</b>
He was a solid 4 or 5 claimer there, and he could race as much as you
wanted. He was sound, durable and good gaited. He was very low
maintenance for any trainer as long as you knew what to give him health
wise to keep his mind and body in top shape. I did know that and it was a
very consistent program I had him on. I had 3 others and they earned
their way at places like Sudbury, even won on occasion, but they weren't
consistent about it like Emerson was. It didn't matter as long as he
performed and one of the other 3 did well that week, and they took
turns. That is how it should have played out. </span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Right
away when I got there I knew I was in trouble. I saw that some local
guys had bought some horses out of town, and the competition was going
to be much tougher than I normally met there. But I was there, and all
in as they say, so I just took my chances. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
had 3 in the first night that I was there, and they all should have
gotten money, thus I should have made my weekly paycheck I counted on. <i><b>I got nothing</b></i>.
I had some bad luck with one, another was in too tough because the
competition level was upped, the other was no good on her own, and that
was a trend she continued until I retired her the next year. She had
always done well at Sudbury, but that was when the entire field went 2
seconds slower. Now, they all went two seconds faster than she could go.
2 seconds is 10 lengths in racing. She wasn't going to make money
anymore. There was no luck involved in that. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The
next racing night, I had 2 in. One had a good post, but he only raced
so so and I got a small check. The other got interference at the start,
and made nothing. It was only one week, one bad week, but that happens
in racing and in life. That was Saturday night. I did the work, put them
away and came back home for Sunday and Monday. I already knew which
ones I had in to go for the next Wednesday. They were trained up and
prepared. Rest was all they needed for those two days. </span></span><br />
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
had decent posts with decent shots for the two I had in that Wednesday,
but both simply were not good enough, and even good or bad luck was not
going to matter. I got nothing again. Not only wasn't I making money,
it was costing me money. A lot of money. A racing operation, even one
where you do all the work yourself costs money. They all eat the same,
the stalls cost the same, supplies cost, you have to pay help at times
and they are depreciating assets from the time you buy them, which you
did with your own capital. If they don't earn, steady, you lose. And
they all need new shoes at the end of the month, race good or bad. Most
blacksmiths like to be paid on the spot, and that is really the only way
to keep them coming. I learned that early in the training game. Not to
mention I still had to eat and live, and had a mortgage to pay back
home.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
had two more in for the following Saturday, but again one wasn't good
enough, the other had bad racing luck, and I got a small cheque between
the two of them. I went home again. I decided that I would gradually
ship them back, two at a time, and race one more time on the Wednesday
since I was there, then ship out. It wasn't working. And it wasn't luck.
It was a bad plan and the bad results flowed directly from that. Luck
played a part but not a significant one.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
raced the last two on Wednesday, did okay but not good enough, and
shipped the last two home. I decided to regroup and not race any of them
for a week. I was back home, but Belleville wasn't really a good
option, so I had to find a place where they could race and compete that
wasn't like taking an entire day road trip. That was wearing me down and
I didn't want to do that anymore. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Ten
days after I was back home, I had Emersons Paradise in at Flamboro.
Flamboro was tough racing at times, so you had to be spotted right. I
thought I was that day with him, but, I was tired and disorganized
because of all the commotion of the Sudbury fiasco, and while I was back
I began to go to the track every night looking for new horses to buy so
I could upgrade my stable, which sorely needed that. That is another
job I did, talent scout. I also did the books, and the books weren't
looking good.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
grabbed my harness bag and went racing with Emerson. As I said above,
he was easy. There were not many things you had to do with him on race
night other than warm him up and put his equipment on. Normally, for any
horse, every time, I checked my equipment over thoroughly before I
left. This time, I did not do that. I paid the price that week for this,
and it wasn't luck. It certainly wasn't bad luck.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
always warmed him up free legged, as he was just that good gaited and
he didn't need hopples , except for the race. Everything was going well, and
we were about 30 minutes to post. I had a good post position and he was
very sharp, just as he was at Sudbury. Normally, Flamboro racing was
much tougher than Sudbury and they raced for less money. At this point,
Sudbury was tougher and Flamboro was the better fit for Emerson. All
systems go, or so I thought. I went to put his race equipment on, and
when I did, my hopples were not there. If you are not a racing person
reading this blog, that is the equipment that keeps a horse like Emerson
on the proper gait the entire race. Almost all harness horses who are
pacers use them. So, I had effed up, and now I had to find a set to use
for the race. Time was not on my side. I could buy them at the tack shop
in the paddock but the lady who runs that was away for 10 minutes. That
was 10 minutes I didn't have.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Back
then, I knew almost everybody that raced at Flamboro, and they still
stabled on the grounds. I asked a friend I saw in the paddock if he knew
where I could get a set to borrow real fast. He told me of a guy. I
asked that guy and he said go to Barn whatever he was in, and take a set
out of his tack room. I did that. I had 10 minutes to the race by this
point. I didn't check them over to make sure they were in good shape.
They were not. When you are experienced, it only takes about 30 seconds
to slap a pair on a horse that doesn't give you any trouble. Emerson was
the best horse that way. He would let you do anything without any
bother or fuss.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">He
paraded okay, and nothing seemed out of the ordinary. As they
approached the start, he was still okay. Then, as they hit the turn, the
driver began to pull him up. I had no clue what that could be about.
Emerson was sound and had no issues. When the driver got in front of me,
I could see the hopple had snapped, because they were frayed in some
sections. I would have caught that if I'd had the time to check them. I
would have had no problem if I had checked my equipment at home. It was
the only time I ever didn't, and only time in hundreds of races I raced
where I had broken equipment in a race. Nevertheless, it was not luck.
It was entirely my fault. I got no money, again. Sort of.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">After
the races, obviously I was not a happy camper. My wife came with me
that day, which she rarely did when I raced. It was a Saturday afternoon
and a nice day. I guess she just wanted to get out and enjoy herself.
It didn't turn out to be so enjoyable, but it only got worse. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
was chatting with a guy I knew in the paddock and he asked me how I
did? I said the horse broke a hopple. He asked me if he was going to be
good anyway, and I said yes, he was going to win or be 2nd. He was a
solid contender. Then he asked me if I could ship a horse he just bought
that day back to his barn, which was "just down the road 10 minutes"
and he would pay me 20 bucks. I said okay, as long as it wasn't too far.
It was on my way home anyway, and it was more about the favor than the
money. He loaded his horse up beside Emerson, and I followed his car to
the barn he was stabled at, which I'd never heard of before. Well, 10
minutes became 30 minutes, and then became an hour. When we finally got
there, he could see I was not very pleased, and he thought giving me 50
instead of 20 was going to cool that situation down. It didn't. I bit my
tongue, took the 50 and decided I would be more careful about shipping a
horse for a guy in the future unless I knew him better, and also that I
would make sure I always checked my equipment before a race. I
maintained that religiously until I stopped training, and had no
equipment issues going forward.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Sunday
came, and now my capital in the bank account had been severely drained.
There was one week left in the month to fix that situation, or I would
have to use the line of credit to pay the bills, something I never
wanted to do. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
decided I would race 2 at Belleville the following Friday night, make
some money, and then take Emerson to Kawartha the following night in a
very soft non winners class that he now fit because of the Sudbury and
Flamboro mistakes. You never know how these things will go, because
there is always some luck involved.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The
two in Belleville seemed logical to win, and since things went my way,
they both did. That was a good Friday night to start the weekend. It
wasn't great money, even for two firsts, but it was still first money
and more than I had made the entire month up to that point. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">At
least some pressure was off for Saturday night. I had enough to pay the
bills, although the overall month was still negative. Emerson was still
at the top of his game, he had a decent post and the best driver at
that track, who I didn't get to use much because he usually had a better
one to take in any race I was in there. He also was a good guy who
would listen when you told him things. I told him what Emerson was like,
his little quirks in a race, and what he would do if you got him in the
right position. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Emerson
didn't like to be hit with the whip. You could wave it, you could show
it to him, you could speak to him, but you couldn't hit him. He also did
not like to be driven hard, unless he had the lead. He wasn't going to
get the lead in this race, so he just needed to be floated up into
position and then tipped when it was time, and he should just blow by
the weak field that was in front of him. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">He
drove him perfect and did exactly what I said, and he won easy, going
away. As soon as he pulled off his cover on the turn, he slingshotted
around the entire field and opened up, going away and coasted to the
line a very easy winner. That was a much bigger paycheck, and I was 3
for 3 on the weekend, and turned a good profit on the month because of
it, in spite of the mistakes I made.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">People
say they would rather be lucky than good, and you hear that all the
time when you race horses for a living. I have never subscribed to that
theory. I would much rather be good than lucky. Being good will win for
you consistently, while a run of good luck wont last. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
didn't do well that weekend because of luck. I didn't do poorly at
Sudbury and then back at Flamboro because of luck. I made my own luck,
my own bad luck. Only, it wasn't luck, it was just due. Some luck played
a part in all the races, both at Sudbury and then Belleville and
Kawartha that weekend, but no matter how lucky I might have been in
those races, I won all 3 because I trained the horses right, entered
them where they could win, and made sure they were driven to win. The
direct opposite of what I did in Sudbury.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">You know that saying,</span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><b>"if it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all"</b></i></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Well,
as a bettor only now, I know you simply cannot rely on racing luck. You
might even have good luck when you make so so or bad plays. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">My
mantra is you can't rely on luck. It can be very streaky, and its no
way to make a plan and hope for success. Anyway, it evens out and at the
end of the day you are no farther ahead. While being really good at
something means you will win more than your share, over time and
consistently. Good luck might even out the bad periods where even being
good doesn't help. But, bad luck plus bad betting or handicapping
overall will ruin you when you hit those patches.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Now,
what happened last night. I mentioned in an earlier blog this week I am
cutting back on the amount of tracks I play. I have determined that is
just Woodbine harness and Yonkers. Woodbine I don't usually play on
Thursday nights unless I have extra time because its a favorite based
card. I thoroughly handicappped Yonkers and when I was done I didn't
have time to do up Woodbine. I took a quick look at it, and I could see
the favorites looked hard to beat. That I got right and the first 5
races were all short priced favorites. So, I decided to just play
Yonkers this night.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I know a bit about Yonkers, have followed it a
bit here and there over the years, but I'm not up to speed on it like I
am for Woodbine. So, there is still going to be some learning curve to
learn the horses and all the participants. Handicapping is still
handicapping wherever you go, but the more you know, the more you play,
the better you should be, if you have the right skills.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">My system
is always to vet out the favorites first and see who I think I can beat,
then find value in the balance of the field. My mistake ended up being I
found value, but didn't stick to playing it. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">In <b>race 1</b> I
tried to beat the favorite, who I thought was iffy, and I had two
options. One option was a longer shot, and he needed the right trip. He
didn't get it. That happens, and that is the luck part. The other option
was a very legit contender and he led most of the way, only beaten in
the stretch by the favorite. I got one of the two right, bet them both
to place, and lost a small amount because the favorite killed the place
price on the one I hit with. I played it well, and only lost because I
didn't get the favorite part right. I'm okay with that. You wont get
them all right when you go against favorites.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race 2</b> is where I
started to get into trouble. I didn't like the favorite, and it turned
out I was right. She was sore and she began to fade on the last turn.
But the ones I picked underneath all failed in their own way, while a
29-1 shot won, which would have helped my place price<i><b><span style="color: red;"> if I had played
value, but I didn't.</span></b></i> I took 3 of them, one was risky and he broke stride
before the start, which was a risk I knew on him going in. The other
two were poor finishers as a rule, and they finished 3rd and 4th, beaten
late for 2nd by another horse who came up the middle and passed them
both late. If I get either of those two horses, its a profitable race.
But that would have been lucky. I would have needed good luck for that
to happen, and not the bad luck that created the opening that allowed
the 2nd place finisher to find room. If either of those horses I took
were actually good value, they wouldn't have needed any luck to
capitalize on a bad favorite. I should have just left the race. Those
horses weren't good value plays, even if I did identify a bad favorite. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race
3</b> I played well. I identified a suspect favorite, who is both a hanger
and a poor leaver, and he fell right into a trip that would cost him. I
had 3 solid value plays against him, and I played all 3. I made a small
profit, because one lost 2nd on the line. The other one won the race. It
was a good value play, not a great one. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race 4</b> I played
decently, but the race just didn't go my way, and all my choices either
were hard used or hung late. Again, that can happen. I will accept that
as part of the overall game.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race 5</b> I played well, by not playing
at all. I thought the favorite was fairly solid but not a cinch. I
didn't like many behind her, and so I just passed the race. The favorite
did bomb out, but my choices behind her were overbet and didn't race
that great anyway. No value, no play. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race 6 and 7</b> I thought the favorites were solid, and they both were, winning fairly easy. I just left those races alone. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race
8 </b>is the race that makes or breaks the night and its the impetus for
starting this blog. I knew the favorite was a bad one, and that he would
be raced very hard, likely setting it up for a longshot. I identified
who I thought that would be, and I was getting a big price on that one,
43-1. I also liked the horse I thought should be favorite, and that one
went off 9-5. I played the 43-1 shot, the race played out exactly as I
thought, but I would have needed some good luck to win. The 43-1 shot
came flying late, but didn't get room in time and passed the winner
right after the line, getting beat less than a nose. The 9-5 shot won
the race, by that nose. If I had good luck on this night, I win that
race. <span style="color: red;"><b>But here is the lesson I take away.</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;"><b>Its better I didn't have
good luck and win that race. Why? Because then I might have ignored the
lesson that I didn't stick to the value principle earlier and if I
don't do that all the luck in the world is not going to keep me
profitable. </b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Good luck will come and go, as will bad luck.
Playing smart and sticking to value is how you make money playing races,
and racing horses for that matter. To some extent, its how you succeed
in life. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">And so, I will close with a line from a Dr. Hook song.
It's something horse players learn to do. You just keep hangin in. Better
love (luck) next time. </span></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Sometimes you lose but you're gonna win, if you just, if you just keep hangin in.</span></span></b></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">How was your night? Mine was pretty
good, even though it wasn't. I lost money, but it was better to lose
money on this night than to get lucky and make money.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
need to be reminded not to rely on luck in any way. Last night was a
bad night, but a good night to remind me to stay on course. Not go
running to tracks that aren't going to matter if I play bad, or bring
poorly prepared horses to race at. That will never work long term. </span></span>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-74408974794626259432018-01-31T16:26:00.001-08:002018-01-31T16:26:47.410-08:00How much is too much. How much is enough?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: medium;">How much love, do you need<br />Before you give your love to me<br />How much time, before it grows<br />How much love I want to know</span></span></b></i></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: medium;">What can I do<br />What can I say<br />The last thing I want <br />Is to drive you away<br />How much love, does it take<br />How much love for heaven sake</span></span></b></i></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span><div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">In the 70s hit
<i><b><span>How Much Love</span></b></i> Leo Sayer asks.."how much you love do you need. how much love does it take?"</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">That
song is about love, but the concept of how much/too much is a question
many of us ask ourselves. I certainly ask myself that question, and for
good reason. <b>How much</b> has always been an issue for me.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBTd_q3M3OAUFPi_9LEpGIm5tOWB-UainKsXwHutSa-M24OImCJwY5q9TYTwxNTBYHZH7yLyBtsxXHDUtE3xpctDa3nJHIQuiBuAY7I3XGm9uHTyrNft6v8b5w82kwby5d2r_zrEdWovaJ/s1600/jmac.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="336" data-original-width="638" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBTd_q3M3OAUFPi_9LEpGIm5tOWB-UainKsXwHutSa-M24OImCJwY5q9TYTwxNTBYHZH7yLyBtsxXHDUtE3xpctDa3nJHIQuiBuAY7I3XGm9uHTyrNft6v8b5w82kwby5d2r_zrEdWovaJ/s400/jmac.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2Uk696jNGA">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2Uk696jNGA</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></span><div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">When
I was younger it was baseball stats. I had a notebook, more a binder
than notebook, and I would record the stats in a very detailed way into
that book--of every Montreal Expos player. Current, and up to date,
after every game. The Montreal Expos were the passion of my youth. I
would also score every game, complete. I learned all those habits from
my father. He did that as well at the games. It was part of the
experience. I probably wanted to be just like him, as most sons want to
be like their fathers until they grow up and end up being like them.
Maybe its not that I wanted to be like him, more that I am like him and I
am prone to repeat the habits because of simple DNA. Maybe its a bit of
both at the same time. I'm pretty close to the stage where that is a
reality. I've never not been that way.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">When
I was a teen I took up golf. That certainly had nothing to do with my
father, as he never played golf. But, I practiced like I was on the PGA
tour, read every book, watched every video I could, and played every
course I could get to and afford. Its certainly something that is just
inside me, whether it was learned or inherited. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
recall in University, one of my professors asked me what I did to
complete my paper that I turned in. I asked why she wanted to know that.
She said she had never had any student do the amount of research that I
did for a simple undergrad paper. I remember spending hours in the
library on that one, reading all sorts of studies, experiments and
newspaper articles, just so I could have as much info as I possibly
could. The footnotes at the end of my paper were probably longer than
the actual paper was. That is who I am and certainly who I was. The prof
probably thought I paid some professional to do it for me. I was
freakish about how I had to do it right. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: black;">Again, how much is too much, and how much actually results in weaker end performance?</span> When does doing more, or too much, result in poorer results than you would otherwise get?<br />Just because you can buy all the candy in the store,
doesn't mean you should or that its in your best interest to do so. That
is a tough lesson to learn. I love candy, literally, and in this case, figuratively.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">More work and study is like candy to me, like sugar to a candy freak. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Knowing
your limitations is important. Realizing your maximum potential is what
many strive for. I certainly strive for it. Where is the happy medium
between those two seemingly polar points?</span></span><div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
am one of those types that wants to do as much as I can, to do it all.
That is a trait I inherited from my father, who was the workaholic of
all workaholics. That's not to say my father didn't take time to do
things he enjoyed, like going to baseball games, watching TV, or many
other things. But, when it came to work, enough was never enough. I am
certainly prone to that, but, unlike him, I am aware of it early in life
and try to keep it in check. Try, but, its a battle. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">When
it comes to horse racing, I want to master every track, every type of
bet. I like a challenge, and I like to solve all the puzzles. That is
what drives me. It's also what can destroy me, if I let it. Lately, I
have been letting it do that. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Back
in the day, that wasn't an issue because it couldn't be.There was no
internet access to every track, 24/7, there was no real offtrack
betting, and when that started, you had 2 tracks to bet on. Not 100. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">My
first real experience with it was once when I went to Pittsburgh. I
went to the local offtrack shop, and that night, you had 20 screens in
front of you and the ability to bet 20 tracks at once. I dabbled in
that, and I probably lost every bet. That lesson never registered
though. More candy was a good idea at that point. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
</div>
</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: medium;">more, more, more, <br />how do you like it, how do you like it.</span></b></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Part
of the problem is that when you start down that road, you are well on
the journey and don't want to turn back, even though you are running out
of gas. For some tracks, I have gathered so much data, put in so much
time learning everything I can and need to know about that track and its
players, that I would be tossing that aside if I gave up on it. Even if
that is the best thing to do...to give up on those because they don't
suit me, for various reasons. It's a bitter pill to take when you know
you have to take it.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"><b>First you need, then you bleed, and when you're on your knees<br />(That's what you get for falling in love<br />You get a little but it's never enough<br />That what you get for falling in love)<br />Now, this boy's addicted 'cause your kiss is the drug<br />your live is like bad medicine</b></span></span><div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>bad medicine is what I need.</b></span></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></span><div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Now,
its not a total loss. Each time I've put the work in, I've learned
something I can use even if I don't play that specific track anymore. It
has made me better and smarter overall. The education is valuable when I
take that and apply it elsewhere. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">So,
the happy medium part. I will still work hard, but there is only so
much work I'm willing to do. I like to play also, and the play part has
suffered because of the work part. I am mindful of that, and have
figured out where the balance is for me. It means tossing away much of
the work I've done, and only going forward with what fits into my
lifestyle. I want to solve the puzzles, but I realize I cannot solve
every puzzle, if it means that is all I have time for. There is more to
life than just solving puzzles. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">When
you can do a vast majority of things well--like I can, you don't need
to limit yourself to just doing one thing very well and all the time. I
fell into that trap, but I have found my way to pull myself out.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b> I fell into a burning ring of fire,<br />
I went down, down, down and the flames went higher<br />
And it burns, burns, burns,<br />
The ring of fire, the ring of fire.
</b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"></span><div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">So,
its down to 2 tracks for me, and just a few types of bets. I will live
with missing scores I can make at other tracks and certain types of
bets. Since I don't need the money that bad, I am giving up some money
making for some time to do other things I get equal enjoyment out of. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">If
that goes well, and I can add a 3rd in the spring that I have always
wanted to try and conquer, I will do that. But, that's it. </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span><div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">One
thing I knew early on, many years ago when I started playing the horses
is that it can consume you if you let it do that. I forget that from
time to time, and literally have to be exhausted before the hammer hits
me on the head. That point has been reached. I also like writing. That
is something else I do well and enjoy.<br />I have started writing more.
Well, that's not true. I have been writing lots all along. I have
hundreds of pretty good pieces that I just haven't finished. I love to
write, but to do it well, you have to put a lot of energy into it. That
also means finishing them. I just haven't finished many pieces, because by
the end of the day, I was just too spent to do that. <i><b>There is only so much you to go around</b></i>,
and the more you put into one thing, the less you have to put into
others. Its a finite amount of time and energy you get to play with.
That's a lesson my father didn't learn until very late in life, and
something he expressed when we went out to dinner shortly before he
passed away. Another older man I used to work with named Abe told me if I
kept working the way I do, like I do, I would burn out. Abe told me
that more than 20 years ago. My father told me what he did about 10
years ago. I didn't listen to either of them. That is my nature.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">That
is a valuable lesson for both horseplayers, as well as in in life. You
have to decide how much goes to one thing, and how much to another. Or
better said, how much less one gets if another is to get more.
Horseplayers, as a general rule, are not good at taking advice of
others. We always figure we are smarter and know better. I am the poster
child in some ways for that. </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"> </span><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: medium;">
<b>Love is the drug and I need to score
</b></span><b><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">Showing out, showing out, </span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">hit and run
Boy meets girl </span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">where the beat goes on
</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Stitched up tight, can't shake free
</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Love is the drug, got a hook on me</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">catch that buzz
</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Love is the drug I'm thinking of
</span></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"> </span><br /><div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Knowing
myself well, I know the temptation to stray and play more tracks will
come again. It always does. Its like a very addictive drug to me. But I
am very mindful of not falling back into that trap now. That is really
half the battle when you are trying to beat this type of problem. Its
only half though. Actually achieving it is the harder half. I'm halfway
there now. I'm very mindful. This candy freak is now at least walking
down the health food aisle. Not that I don't see the candy aisle in the
distance. I know its there and it calls my name like the devil on my
shoulder when the angel is silent. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">How much is too much? How much is enough? <span style="color: red;"><i><b>Too much is too much when enough is enough. That's when.</b></i></span></span></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: medium;">If you've had enough</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Don't put up with his stuff</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Don't you do it</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
If you've had your fill</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Get the check pay the bill</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
You can do it</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Tell him to just get out</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Nothing left to talk about</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Pack his raincoat show him out</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Just look him in the eyes and simply shout</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Enough is enough is enough</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
I can't go on, I can't go on, no more no</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
Enough is enough, is enough</span><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">
I want him out, I want him out that door now
</span></b></div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">In this case, the him is the person I don't want to be, the one I am also prone to be.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span><div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Note
I used many love songs out of context in this blog to emphasize the
metaphor of working too hard, just like loving too hard. Its what was
out there to use, so I utilized it. Working hard is very much like
loving too hard, it can hurt you more than help you if you let it.<br /></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">And so, just one more, without the lyrics posted, just to hammer home the point.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"></span></div>
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Note the title on the page...Hell To Pay.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The next vice might be getting rid of using so many songs and lyrics in my blogs and posts to make a point. But that is a task for another day. One day at a time. </span></span></span></div>
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Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-84693111864695499202018-01-28T10:45:00.002-08:002018-01-28T10:45:05.293-08:00The day I couldn't lose..literally<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Jzly6jrepRU/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Jzly6jrepRU?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">The year was 1987. It was a turbulent year, and the end of 2 or 3 very turbulent years in my world.</span></span></span></span><br />
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">My
parents, who had issues going for about 20 years, finally had split up a
year or so before. It was an ugly day when it happened, and I was in
the house when it all blew up. You never forget moments like that, but
really, it was for the best. My parents were both great people in their
own ways, but they were oil and water together much of the time. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Splitting
up is never as easy as just walking away. Money was involved, and my
dad had issues that tied us to him and his issues were in ways that
weren't easy to remove from our lives. One of those was his penchant,
almost vocation, to get in trouble with the law and then make it worse
by doing more bad and stupid things. Before they split up, he had done
such a thing and because his bail was so high, we had to put our house
up as collateral to get him out. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">When
they split up, my father eventually went to California to live and run
more of his scams. Scams was his business, and he was always in
business. So, when it came time to come back for the trial for the
previous scams, for which we had put our house up, he wasn't coming
back. The crown and judge made it clear if he didn't, they would take
the house. My mother was terrified. Something she was a lot and came to
her easily. We were sitting on my bed in my room, and discussing what to
do about it. I hatched a plan to get us out of it, and in the end, it
worked. It took some creativity, and some fudging the truth on the stand
by me, although I didn't lie, just left some things out, but at the end
of the day, she kept her house, which eventually she sold to me, and I
now live in. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">The
plan was pretty simple. It was August of 1987, and I had worked all
summer since University had ended. I had saved up enough money for the
coming school year, so I didn't need to work the rest of that month. My
father had invited me to come visit him in Los Angeles, where he was
living. To be more specific, Anaheim. I accepted. Somehow, my mother got
involved and she came with. By then, my parents were getting along.
They did get along well...as long as they were apart. We flew together
to L.A., and the plan was to try and convince him to come back and face
the music in Toronto, then my mother would be off the hook for the bail
money. In addition, it would be a nice visit for 3 weeks. Staying at his
house meant it cost nothing, and my father being my father, he paid for
the plane fare. It would end up costing nothing, and again, my father
being my father, I came home 3 weeks later with a lot more money than I
left with. A lot is all I will say. It wasn't small bills, suffice it to
say. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Right
away I knew there was going to be trouble. My mother started talking
about taking him back. I told her she was crazy and had a very short
memory. Just remember the plan and the goal, have fun with your trips to
Disneyland and the movie studios, and try to get him to come back and
save your house. She wasn't easy to convince, and my father could be
very persuasive. It didn't really matter, so I just let it go while we
were there. I knew when the day came, I was getting her back on the
plane and then that would be that, and she would come to her senses.
Which she did. Three entire weeks with my father was plenty enough to
convince her that he hadn't changed one bit and that he never was going
to. He was the same crazy workaholic, over eater, excessive compulsive
and con man he had always been. I make him sound bad there, but he
really wasn't. He was a good, stand up guy who would give you the shirt
off his back and take a bullet for you, but he had major personality
flaws that he could never overcome. I took him for what he was, and saw
him for what he was. He was always very good to me, as you will see in this blog.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">For
me, it was a chance to see places I never had before. I was going to
take full advantage of that. The only thing I had to do was get up very
early and drive him to work. In Los Angeles, even at 4am, that is a
chore. Why? Because there was traffic everywhere, all the time. L.A.
traffic is not a Hollywood made up story. Its very real. But if I wanted
the car all day, its what I had to do. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">He
had to get up that early because of the 3 hour time difference. He said
he needed to be at work at 5am because that was 8am eastern time. For
whatever scam he was running, that was necessary. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Luckily
for us, he was able to use the 2 or more lane to drive to work. That
saved time. I asked him how he was able to do that by himself when we
weren't around. He said he put the dog in the backseat and when he got
stopped, he pointed out to the police that it said 2 or more, not 2 or
more people. As I understand it, because of his bullshit argument, he
forced them to change all the signs. That was my father. He also had a
stack of tickets because of it, and of course, he never paid any of
those. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Every
day, I would ride with him to work and then take the car for as long as
I wanted, then pick him up at 5pm. That meant I could go wherever I
pleased. Most days, that meant going to play golf. That is what I did
most in those days, and the weather was great in L.A. Starting out as
early as I did, meant I could get out before the crowds and play the
entire round, finish before noon, then get some lunch, and head to the
beach until he was ready to go home. One of those days I went to Redondo
Beach, and it was a great place to be. Some years later, the entire
area burned to the ground, so at least I got to see it first. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">When
we got back home, each night I would do something different. One night,
I went to Dodger Stadium to see a baseball game. In my entire life, I
have never seen a baseball palace like that. It was heaven. The tickets
were very expensive, but it didn't matter. My father said he would get
me one, and he would pay whatever it cost. On top of that, out the door,
he would give me an extra 50 bucks in case I needed anything. That was a
trend that continued the entire trip. Fifty bucks a day times 21 days
ended up being 1000, and there was an extra envelope to go with it for
the plane ride. It was more than I made the entire summer before I came.
He also paid for all the golf course fees, and any food I wanted.
Another night, I went to Anaheim Stadium, which was just down the street
from his house, and he paid for all that as well. We also went to San
Diego and Tijuana for the day, and to San Francisco for 2 nights. I
wanted to play Pebble Beach, because that was a dream of mine, but on
the day we went, it was raining, so I didn't. We drove around the entire
course though, so at least there was that. If I had played, it would
have been 250 to play it. That was a lot of money to me, being only 22
and a student, but my father said if that is what you want, play and I
will pay it. For all my fathers faults, that is just who he was. He
would give you anything if he thought it made you happy. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Other
than the golf, the beach, the baseball games and the short trips, I had
one bigger plan in mind for myself. I had a day trip of my own in the
works. Towards the end of the trip, on a Saturday when my father didn't
need the car, I was going to drive to San Diego to watch the T breds run
at Del Mar, then come back at night and go to Los Alamitos for the
standardbreds. It was a day road trip for horse betting, something some
players like to do. I was one of those in those days. When that day
arrived, it was a bright, perfectly sunny California day. Many of the
days while we were there were very overcast and rainy. People who have
never been to LA don't realize that is more the reality of the weather
there, but you do get the sunnier days too, after the early morning smog
lifted. In those days, the smog was horrendous. On this day, there was
neither. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">I
drove out to San Diego to go to Del Mar. I got there early, so I was
able to walk around and take the place in. It was massive and a palace,
much like Dodger Stadium had been. You never forget those things when
you see them. In those days, there were no camera phones, so the video
is just something that lives in my head. Before I left, since it was a
longer day, my father wanted to make sure I had enough money to get me
by the entire day, even though I had about 1000 saved from all the other
allowances to that point, so he gave me 150 this time. In those days, I
never bet more than 5 a race, and I didn't that day either, even though
I could have. I didn't feel comfortable doing that at that point. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">I
bought the Daily Racing Form, but really, I didn't know much about the T
breds, so, I expected to lose. Big fields of horses I didn't know,
jockeys I didn't know, and a style of racing I had no real clue about.
For whatever reason, on this day, that was not going to matter. For you
see, on this day, I literally could not lose. We all have a day like
that, and this was my day. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">I
stayed at Del Mar for about 6 races. I bet 4 of them. I hit them all,
and not just favorites. I think I was up another 50 before I left. When
you are a bettor, you think in terms of betting money and the rest of
your money. So, while I had 1000 back in the room at my fathers house,
and 150 from him for this day, in my mind, I now had 50 to play with at
night for the Los Al card. That is the way you think when you play
horses. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Off
I went, on the 2 hour plus journey back to LA to Los AL. I was hungry,
so I stopped for some dinner along the way, and because of that, I was
late and missed the first 3 races. I think there were 10. For some
reason that night, and that night only, they had a fair there in
addition to the regular harness races. The fair included quarter horse
racing. I knew zero about that style of racing, and to this day, I am
still in that boat. All I know is that they line them up in the gate, it
opens, and they run like hell for 8 to 10 seconds in a straight line
and then its over. I caught the last quarter horse race just as I walked
in. I bet 5 on something, and it won. Just barely, right on the line as
another passed it. I just couldn't lose on this day, no matter how
foolishly I played. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Then
the harness races started. I had been going to the races for about 4 or
5 years by then, and I knew what I was doing. But, at this track, I
knew none of the horses, the drivers, or really how they raced. But I
didn't care. I was playing with free money and it was more about the
experience anyway. On this night, they had the Sire Stakes also, and
many of the races were those. There were many heavy cinch favorites, so I
didn't have to be that smart to pick winners, if that is what I wanted
to do. I did. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">The
first 3 were heavy chalks, they all looked good to me, I played them,
and they all won. I still could not lose. The next one I didn't like as much,
and a 5-1 shot looked good to me. I played him. He came out of the clouds
late and picked off the favorite right on the line, which was maybe a 3
minute photo to wait on. This was crazy. I had now hit 9 in a row. 9 in a
row. I've been at this now 35 years, I don't think I've ever hit 4 in a row,
before or since. There were just 3 or 4 races left. I was up at least
200 on the day by now. That was a lot of money, even though I was
already going home with way more than that if I had lost the entire 150 I
started with on this day.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">I
decided to bet exactors this time. Not boxes though, just straight
exactors. Something I never do, to this day. But, this day was
different. I had the confidence that I was going to win. No matter what.
I played two 2-1 shots in the next race, and they hit the line
together, and my top horse clearly was ahead. But, there was an inquiry,
on the winner. It seemed to flash forever, but when the inquiry came
down, my horse stayed up. 10 in a row. Yes, 10 in a row. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">By
this time, it had been a very long day, and I was getting tired and a
bit sleepy. But the rush of all the wins kept me going. I was going to
play one more race, win or lose, and then drive home. These were the
best horses they had in California at that time, the Open horses. There
were only 6, but it was a very evenly matched field. All 6 looked to
have a shot. I watched them parade, and I picked a 5-1 shot to win over a
6-1 for 2nd. Straight. It was paying about 100 bucks if I cashed it. I
had to lose though, nobody keeps a run like this going forever. The race
was contentious start to finish, and all 6 were in it as they turned
for home. My 5-1 shot was hopelessly boxed and blocked from going
forward. My 6-1 shot was on the outside, but he was hanging. I was
pretty certain I was going to lose this one. Then, the red sea parted,
the 5-1 shot shot through in an instant and got up right on the line,
with 4 others noses apart beside him for 2nd. My 6-1 shot looked to be
3rd, so I was still going to lose. They put the numbers up that way. I
thought the run was over. Then, they announced there was a drivers
objection. The horse that finished last against the 2nd place horse.
That one also took a long time too, but..he came down, my horse moved up
to 2nd, and....a perfect day was complete. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">I
walked out with about 300 plus my 150, less dinner and gas, which my
dad insisted on giving me money for when he found out I spent 30 extra
on gas and food. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">You
would think all of those things would be the most vivid memories I have
of that day, but it is not. The one thing I remember most is that there
were some people standing beside me at Los Al, and they had noticed I
won every bet. They looked at me by the end of the night like I was some
3 headed freak. It seemed I was that day. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Home I went. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Two
days later, on Monday, we flew back to Toronto. My father gave me the
extra envelope just before we took our luggage out of the trunk. He told
me not to open it until I got home. I didn't. Lets just say it was
enough money to buy a car if I wanted to. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">On
the plane, my mother told me that my father had assured her he would
come back and go to court. I knew it as a lie, she knew it was a lie,
even though she wanted to believe it. It was a lie, but that was okay.
It was enough.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">We
went to court a few months later. They called him. He wasn't there. So,
he was convicted, and now a felon on the run. When lunch break was
over, we had to go on the stand and tell them why they shouldn't seize
our house. My mother was very nervous, as she was prone to be anyway. I
told her to just tell the truth. She did. The crown asked her what she
did. She told them we went to California to convince him to come back,
he said he would, and that she did all she could do. She said he was not
living in hiding, she knew where to find him if they wanted him, and
she couldn't have done anymore.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">Then
it was my turn. I wasn't so honest, but I did what I had to do to save
my mothers house, which is all she had left at that stage. The crown
asked me what I knew. I said I heard my father tell my mother that he
was going to come back. That wasn't entirely true. I didn't hear him say
that, but my mother told me he did then told me. I told them I was
certain he would come back, but of course I knew in my heart and mind he
wasn't going to. The judge said we had done enough, and he let us off
the hook. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">I have a theory of why they did that.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">As
it turns out, they didn't want him back. They were happy to let him be
California's problem. It cost more to prosecute and deal with him than
just let him be. In any case, they weren't even trying to extradite him
and he was easily findable, and he wasn't trying to cross. </span></span>They
were just happy for it to be over. I told my mother she should take
that as a sign and be happy herself to be done with it, and let it be.
She did in the end. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">On that trip, and in court, I just couldn't lose. It just went my way, for whatever reason. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-">My
mother hated when I played the races...but she loved it when I won. She
was like that. When I told her how much I won that day in California,
she was so happy. Everyone likes a winner and when you are that winner,
you feel like you can never lose. That is perceived by others, but all
of us know that the winning wont last. It didn't. The next time at the
track back home, I couldn't pick a winner to save my life, and I went on
a run where I lost my next 60 or 70 bets. Karma evened up the score, as
it always will. But it can't take away my stories or memories of that
month in August, where I could not lose.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-"> </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-"> </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-"> </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-UFICommentActorAndBody"><span class="gmail-m_-5650059603504292249gmail-"> </span></span></span></span></div>
Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6685897781731739813.post-37093038830527799412018-01-27T14:14:00.002-08:002018-01-27T14:16:40.200-08:00 How was your night? Mine really kinda sucked.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/yQDi8uoZiZY/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yQDi8uoZiZY?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">My
night last night can best be described as disappointing. Not the first
one I've ever had betting on horses, and it wont be the last. But like
every one of those that came before, I still can take some positives and
lessons going forward, to make the good nights even better in the
future and hopefully take some of the potential bad nights and turn them
into better nights. <br /><br />Betting on horses. The pillars </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I view betting on horses as having 3 components, all equally important parts.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1) <i><b>handicapping and work.</b></i>
However you do that, it has to be done, and you have to be good at it.
If not, the other two parts don't matter. You would just be floating in
the raft outside the Titanic, but you still would have been on a sinking
ship. You have to be on the right ship and sailing straight and
smoothly, relatively speaking. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">For
me, that means I gather my data, enter it, study it, look at trends,
patterns, specifics on certain variables. A lot of us do that, and I'm
no different. Whether my way is better than your way, we could debate.
My way is different that yours, and that is not up for debate. We all do
it differently, in some small ways. As long as we get it right, and
getting it right means winning money consistently while taking the
losses of others who don't, that is all that really matters. <br />After I
do that first part of the handicapping, the work is not done. I watch
replays, very carefully. I am looking for any little thing I can see,
something that I believe matters, and that is most likely to be missed
or ignored by the vast majority who would bother to do it. I had about 3
horses I uncovered for last night, and while all were valid, a couple
of things I saw were noted by the track video hosts. So, the value was
gone. One was ignored and missed, and that should have gotten me a free
pass no matter how the night went otherwise. I also had a past data
point that was ignored off the program, and that was another where I
should get the windfall. Generally, I liked the entire setup of the card
and thought there would be multiple chances to make a profit. There
were also some races I didn't like and had planned to sit out, unless
something unusual happened or presented itself. It actually did, and I
ignored that too. But more about that later. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">On
these two points, the data and replays, I didn't short myself at all.
Fridays at Woodbine are a night where you can't. The margin between a
value winner and a value loser is very slim and tight. I am aware of
that. Thursday night is a night obvious chalks come in, so while I watch
and do the things listed above, I know I can skimp a bit, because its
unlikely I will play much in either case. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2) <i><b>handicapping the entire race</b></i>
now that you have all the parts of the first component complete. This can be
termed...finding relative value and putting the pieces together. In many
cases, this involves putting a bad value horse that is being over bet
against my good value horse that is being under bet, and hopefully
grossly under bet. Again, more work. Its just work layered upon your
skills and talent. I mostly did that, but I shorted myself on one race,
and that bit me in a way that it should. I didn't act in a thorough
enough way, and I got spanked for that at the end of the day. That is a
lesson that never gets old. For every amount of work you skip, or don't
do, or take for granted, you will lose a proportional amount of money
because of that. I know it will happen to me periodically, as I am
human just like everyone else, but I know I have to keep it to a minimum
and try to avoid it playing out like that. When it does, I take it as
punishment so that at least in the short term I will tow that line.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3) <i><b>discipline and focus.</b></i>
The evil twins of betting failure for most of us. Dave Shwartz talks about a
session, and part of that is that when you are going to play a session,
you play it. You don't surf, you don't go make dinner, you don't make
phone calls. You focus on the task, and you play at the highest level
you can. I totally failed on this part and that, in the end, is what
caused me to lose, when I should have won a lot. </span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Here are the specifics of how it all happened.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I had pegged a few value horses I was looking at. They were:<br /><b><br />Dry Creek Image<br /><span class="gmail-m_-6048296722145708061gmail-text_exposed_show"></span></b></span></span><br />
<div class="gmail-m_-6048296722145708061gmail-text_exposed_show">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>In Spades<br />Bad At Redhot<br />Hurrikane Kingkong<br />Er Monica<br />Topville Chrome</b><b> </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Walk Two Moons</b></span></span><br />
</div>
<div class="gmail-m_-6048296722145708061gmail-text_exposed_show">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
will take them one by one and go over how I approached the entire card,
within the framework of the 3 components I described above.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><b>Race
1</b></i> had <b>Dry Creek Image.</b> I thought she had a compromised trip the race
before and also raced and finished well anyway. I knew <i><b>Chickie Love</b></i>, the
big favorite, would be overplayed and I thought she was a very suspect
favorite. Again, bad value horse meets good value horse. The other
player, <i><b>Reys N A Rocket</b></i>,
was bearing out badly the week before, but she was viable. I thought I
could get 6-1 or higher on Dry Creek Image and that was good relative
value. I thought the play was all the way across, win place and show,
because I could see Chickie Love completely missing the ticket. Because
paying attention is very important, in real time, a 3rd horse called
<i><b>Maralika </b></i>was way overbet on a trainer change via a claim, so I actually
had 16-1 on Dry Creek Image. I put my bet in. But, as they were going to
the gate, Dry Creek Image started to cause trouble, and they paused. I
didn't like what I saw, at all, so I cancelled my bet. Chickie Love was a
very suspect favorite, and was actually trapped in late in the race,
but got lucky to get out at the right time and came on to win, while Reys N A Rocket got the lead and bore out sharply again, as expected and got beat. Dry Creek Image got 3rd,
but was no threat to the top 2, and it was a good leave overall. I
played it right and paid enough attention to stick to the discipline. No
loss. On to race 2.</span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Didn't
like anything in <b>race 2,</b> so I passed on the race. The favorite, who I
disliked and was terrible value, won anyway, so another good pass. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Race 3 brought <b>IN SPADES</b>, who was on my radar. My data rated his performance
very highly the start before in defeat as a big favorite, and I could
see the players ditching him for that reason. I expected 4-1, and it
came, so I played him. He was one of many, and I didn't like the
favorite <b>Burn Out Hanover,</b> so I went against him. In Spades raced well,
but he was too far back early and closed huge, but into a fast last
half, and he couldn't get there. I'm okay with that. That will happen,
and you will lose some of those. It was a good play I would make again.
Nevertheless, we were 3 races in and I hadn't made anything and actually
lost a small amount on Race 3.</span></span><br />
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Race
4 brought <b>Bad At Redhot</b>. I should preface my following statement with
this comment.<br />I trained horses. I have had dogs all my life. I would
take home sick barn cats and try to help them, even make friends with
some of those in the barn that were scared of people. I am an animal
lover. I hope all racehorses, good or bad, are treated well, get to live
long lives after their careers are over on farms roaming pastures and
eating grass to their hearts content.</span></span></div>
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">But, being a realistic person and bettor, I can tell you that a rat is a rat. What is a rat?</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">For
racing people, these are horses of limited ability that wont try very
hard, and aren't consistent. For a sharp bettor, these can also be value
longshots, in the right field. Bad At Redhot fit that profile.<br /><br />What did I
know about her, and the race last night in particular? She is a rat,
facing many other rats. Good form, bad form, its not much to go on with
these. Some weeks they show up, some weeks they don't. In a lot of
cases, external variables come into to play. The favorite, <b>E R Rhonda </b>
had post 10, which is such a low percentage post hindrance, that almost
no horses win from it at Woodbine. E R Rhonda almost did her last
start. She had it then too, actually led the entire way and crossed
the line first, but was dq'd for running out sharply into the 2nd place
horse. Based on that, many thought post 10 wouldn't be a problem this
time. I didn't see it that way. I also didn't like any of the other
horses in the race, based on what I knew about them generally. So, I
didn't really look. Big mistake. That cost me. </span></span><br />
<div class="gmail_default">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">What
did I like about <b>Bad At Redhot</b>? She is a very low percentage winner,
but, she tries and with the right easy trip, which she could get here,
she could be dangerous. Her driver, Jody Jamieson also has a history
with her of getting her to perform at long odds. That wasn't on the
program, but its in my memory bank. I figured her for about 25-1. As it
turns out, she went off 70-1. I made a small win bet and went up to make
some dinner. I lost my focus, violated the sanctity of the session
concept, and the race was off before I came back downstairs. She
finished 2nd, got the trip I suspected, E R Rhonda blew up, the rest
were rats that raced like rats, except for one rat, <b>Jordies Hope,</b> who
beat me. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">How
did I miss her? I hadn't looked and she has a significant trainer
change from the last time I'd seen her. If I had noticed that, by
deploying the 2nd component from above, I would have considered that and
played her as well. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
also always back up a horse like Bad At Redhot to place, but I didn't
here. I didn't do the work, and I lost my focus, with poor discipline,
and I lost a $43 place payout on Bad At Redhot. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Four
races in, my handicapping had been good, but I had serious violations
of other components and I was down where I should have been way up.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
didn't like anything either way in <b>race 5</b>, and it came pretty much how I
expected with low value horses getting it done. I wasn't the only one,
as my friend Garnet Barnsdale had the same assessment and passed as
well. When you got nothing, that is when you pass. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Here were my picks, as posted in my group about 1 hour prior to first post for the first 5 races. </span></span><br />
<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfGPcns1UNPNz9IA-4cKLQ-BS11EwjhRTVfPjzTWslymsGIi0EO0F56ONlwgqqlmbreqxMb-V240y32KH9w15-XMZzENpR-3U-bXdWuw-x2Nb4_3soeHMceqBEcnTjhfULw6HtZ_l2zdml/s1600/peck.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="651" height="606" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfGPcns1UNPNz9IA-4cKLQ-BS11EwjhRTVfPjzTWslymsGIi0EO0F56ONlwgqqlmbreqxMb-V240y32KH9w15-XMZzENpR-3U-bXdWuw-x2Nb4_3soeHMceqBEcnTjhfULw6HtZ_l2zdml/s640/peck.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race 6</b> brought <b>Hurrikane Kingkong,</b>
who I thought would be my best bet of the night. I thought he had a
very troubled trip and lacked a chance to go forward when it mattered
the previous start, and while I had noted that, the track handicapper
also noticed it and told the masses. I wasn't sure what kind of value I
would get. But, I disliked the two probable favorites, being <b>Artoffical Flavor,</b> who was very lame the previous start, and <b>Lyons William</b>,
who was a horribly overbet rat the time before who was placed last for
going off the course while he was backpeddling sharply. I still thought
relative value was on the table.<b> Hurrikane Kingkong </b>was in
the 6-1 range, and while a shade low, I thought that was fair. But,
Artofficial Flavor came out post parading looking like a totally
different horse. He was sound and ready to race this night. I had
mentioned to Garnet and my friend Ryan that if he came out a different
horse, all bets were off. He was, but I left my bet up on Hurrikane
Kingkong. <b><i>You can guess how it played out.</i></b> I made a mistake and lost
the bet. Probably, because I was 6 races in, had handicapped well but
made mistakes and just wanted to make my play. So I did. <u><i><b>I violated the
session concept.</b></i></u> A session is a session. You play it properly, no matter
how you are doing up to that point. Hurrikane
Kingkong finished last, with no excuse. He maybe should not have won,
but he should have been at least 3rd. He is a rat. I got this one wrong,
for multiple reasons as I described.<br /><br /><b>Race
7 </b>was probably my biggest procedural mistake of the night. Obviously,
for various reasons, things were not going well on this card for me. So,
you start to get sour, doubt yourself, and then you don't stick with
the plan. That old psychology bugaboo many of us handicappers can fall
into. I have worked hard to overcome that, but I'm not immune to a
relapse. <br /><b>Er Monica </b>was up in <b>race 7</b>.
I hadn't seen her, didn't have any data on her, but I know her driver
is a high percentage driver who gets performance and wins lots of races
with longer odds horses. She looked good enough to me, and I was only so
so on many of the other contenders, who I thought were likely to be
soft at the tote board. So, I was going to play her. Then, since I
didn't love her that much, and didn't have anything concrete like data
or replay issues to go on, I just decided to pass. Again, you can guess
what happened. Her driver got her the trip she needed, found room late,
and was up in time for a 10-1 score, which I had missed. <b><i>Things were
just not going well tonight.</i></b> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race 8</b> was up
next, and I just decided to play what I had intended to play. I liked
<b>Topville Chrome</b> a bit off his replay, and he seemed a contender among
many, although the data told me he was only okay his last start. In
relative terms though, I really disliked the favorites in this race, not
just one but two of them, so I played him win place and show, and also
the same for <b>Star Clipper</b>, who seemed to be hinting at a good effort,
but was risky. The odds were good on both, and I thought it was a good
value play, which is really the point of all I do anyway.<b> </b>Star
Clipper was 10-1, Topville Chrome was 6-1. <i><b>Together, they were good
value to play together.</b></i> I only needed one to perform if the favorites
were false as I thought they were. It was a strangely driven and hotly
contested race, but while Topville Chrome got a bad shuffle, Star
Clipper was in position to win but lost to one of those favorites, <b>
Gillys Boy.</b> I still got a decent place price on Star Clipper, but he
didn't win. I played the race well. But here is the takeaway at this
point and this is key. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i><span style="color: blue;">You
have to play all the races where you think you have done all the
homework and you have value to play into. You can't pick where you play,
where you don't, and consider how the night is going. You are going to
lose some of the In Spades races due to race factors, Hurricane Kingkong
races when you simply get it wrong, and the Star Clipper races when it
doesn't pan out exactly how you need it to. As long as you play them
all, and your skill is valid, you will win enough. Like the E R Monica and Bad At Redhot races. <span style="color: red;"><b>You can't skip races
that you should play.</b></span></span></i></span><b><br /></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race
9</b> I liked the favorites and didn't really like my top pick much, so I
skipped the race. Favorite won, 2nd fave was 2nd, my top pick was weak
late as I thought he might be. It was simply a good race to leave. No
need to panic and play a race that wasn't playable in my view.<br /><br /><b>Race
10</b> I liked a few, not that much but so so. I played 3 horses to place
that I thought had value. I got 2 of them, and made a small overall
profit. It was an okay play. You need to make the small profit at times
if its a good play. <i><b>They cant all be bombs</b></i> like Bad At Redhot.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Race
11 </b>was the icing on the bad cake for me this night. I made only one
mistake, but it was a very costly one. I did so many things right for
this one to work, but I only had to do one thing wrong for it to not
work out.<br /><br /><b>Walk
Two Moons </b>was the one I saw in the replay that I felt everyone had
missed. I thought she got a terrible drive the start before, but still
finished well enough, well off the screen. My data confirmed that, she
was dropping in class, with a good post and likely to get the perfect
trip. The favorite, <b>Bernadette</b>, is an old class mare, but she has
terrible form, coming off a layoff, with a bad post and a history of
giving up the lead late. It played out exactly as I thought it would,
and while I was looking for 7-2, the favorite was wildly overbet at 3-5,
and Walk Two Moons went off at 14-1. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I
didn't bet. Why didn't I bet? Just as they were going to the gate, I
got distracted by something, which doesn't matter, and I wont describe
here. But, when I gathered myself, it was too late, the race was off,
and the whole way, I knew she would beat the favorite, which she did. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">In
sum, I have a good system, the components are the right components, but
without the execution you need, and I need, it wont matter. <span style="color: red;"><u><i><b>Component 3
is critical. </b></i></u></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Never forget that. I wont. Discipline and focus are crucial to success playing horses. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">On
the way home from the grocery store while I was writing this blog in my
head, I heard this song in the car. As bettors, and just humans who
have ups and downs, its good to remember the sentiment of this song</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Remember,
betting on horses is supposed to be fun. Its a lot more fun when you
win and have a good time. That happens when you get it right. Tomorrow
is another day, to enjoy and achieve, with lessons in tow. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Good luck if this helps you. Have a good time. The sun can't shine every day. But it will shine again, if you are bright enough.</span></span>Mark Deutschhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02657964285111110546noreply@blogger.com0