Monday, November 21, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: November 21, 2016. part 2, temp blog.


As usual, this is the type of race we see all the time where you have to look the other way on a lot of them that classic handicapping tells you to avoid them. Something has to win this race. That is the only known we have to work with here. That horse doesn't have to be much stock or have great form to do it. Start there.

True Muscle drops out of the Autumn, where she was overmatched, although she had a post that compromised her 2 back and she closed up well enough to be in the mix late. She has beaten better than many of these, but also has a tricky gait which gets her some nights. She made the Grassroots final, and of course, that has to be considered against many in here who wouldn't even make the stakes payments to race in those. I'd have to use her in the pick 4 on the chance she puts it together tonight. J Mac is a longshot machine, and that is another factor. 

Deuce Deuce Deuce has been off 6 weeks, made a late break last time, and comes back with no qualifiers but adding lasix. He is hard to like, but reasonable enough to think he can step up in a pick 4 scenario. Usable but I wouldn't play him with a win ticket. His record before the break and layoff was better than most of these and he is competitive in this class if he finishes better and stays trotting. 

Withahearttomatch loses J Mac to True Muscle, but picks up Trevor. Tomato/tomato. Can never discount anything Larry Walker trains, as he can find things and make adjustments. He used to bring in a lot of longer shots with just this type back in the day, and why cant he still do that? She is very well bred, but didn't race at 2 or 3. Last time, she left out, followed along, gapping a bit as J Mac pulled the plugs, appeared to be going all she can go in the lane but still lost positions in a 32 second last quarter. Tough call. She could just be not much stock. So are the rest of most of these. I could have said a lot of those things about the 2 horse last week. Your call. I'd probably use her while avoiding the two more "logical" ones outside of her. A spot for a spot, and higher odds. 

Ado Duharas shows 2 racelines on the page, both times he ran and took himself out of it. Last time, on the lead, Mario tapped him to go forward and he said "eff you" back and galloped. He is a non trier. He stayed well back of Fearless Man last time and trotted evenly, which he probably can always do, and likely what got him those 7 wins at the B tracks. If you ask him to work, he will decide to canter. I'm sure Mario has learned what works with him in the two trips behind him. That is a plus in his favor.

Mostinterestingman has one lifetime win, and is also dropping out of the Autumn, where he was over his head to win it but good enough to pick up shares. Dupuis lists himself. If that holds, I will pass on him. He isn't a driver and driver will matter in this race. If he changes that and picks up a pro driver, the horse parades well and is on the bit, I'd change my tone and use him in the pick 4. Sadly, the pick 4 decision has to come two races earlier, so, the driver decision is the key. He adds a pro, use him.

Secretcode Hanover is one Vanderkamp has to be careful with, as he throws in extra steps most of the way, especially that last turn, even with the added stability of the trotting hopples. As such, he cant blast out and gets hung like he did leaving last time. That catches up to him at the end, and he was passed by a low talent rat last time in a 32 second last quarter. I will go elsewhere, and go against my rule of always using Vanderkamp in every pick 4 so he doesn't beat me with his savvy.

Little Stuie  is 2 for 36 the last two years, and sporting the donut this year. He draws the 9 hole here, and that usually is death to a type that cant win races with every chance. He was flying late last time, but flying is relative to the quicksand the ones in front of him were trotting in a 32 second staggerfest. He had every chance 2 back on the engine but stopped that night too. I hate his breeding and he races right to it. Pass for me. It has to be something else here.

Im Wanted looks the part, and has ability, but is a shit for brains and will run at any point. He also has lameness issues, which were apparent on the last turn before he blew up. One of these nights he will show up sound, behave, get the right trip and blow up the tote board. His brother Cracker Jack has done that a few times too, although he is proven and this one is nothing to this stage in his almost 5yo life. Post 1 on a windy Woodbine November night, I will watch again, and hope he doesn't make me pay like the 2 horse did last week.

Shestherealthing made a great pre race appearance in the parade last week, but like a fool, I didn't play her and her huge odds, because I know she can be a basket case and also her lines were horrid by anyones measure. She was rank on the engine until covered up, but then made me pay for not taking a risk on her. This week, she is likely to take money and revert back to her bad behaving ways. She had a lot of trouble passing a leader who wanted to get beat last time. I will go to others. These types rarely double up or put two together. That is why they have the record they do. Her Mr Chin dam leads me to think she comes by her crazy honestly.

Archery comes in with 2 gate breaks his last 4 starts, and two wins in the other two. And the 10 hole tonight as he comes back to this circuit. He picks up Saftic, who I would think would have him off the gate to stay trotting, and conservative to the last turn to keep him in good form with a shot to close late and be ready for next week and a better draw. Pass for tonight. Prospect down the road if he shows me enough.


Cams Lucky Sam goes 2nd start for Carmen, after drawing the 10 hole and sent on a mission that became impossible. He self destructed, not in 5 seconds, but in about 2 minutes. He draws better here, and has both a fast record and several wins under his belt. Big shot. 

Dreamfair Mesa gets some class relief tonight, and also Randy back, who seems to get the most out of him. He is very variable in terms of how he paces and how interested he is on any given night. For the right price, and considering the nature of this field, I'd use him in the pick 4 and give him a shot to win the race outright as a bet. He has gate speed and he needs to start better. Not to lead persay, but to at least be in 2nd or 3rd over position. He cant swoop them all like he did for his last win most nights.

Late Night was a promising colt at one stage, taking on NYSS types and also some other bearcats. That was abandoned awhile ago, but now he has confidence and some wins, and also moves out of claimers and nw of conditions to tackle nw3. Is this the sweet spot for him? I'm willing to say it could be, and would use him in the pick 4. Brealey's bunch have started to heat up again. That is the plus that makes me add him.

Mach Messier cut the mile again last time, and lasted longer to a pretty decent colt. It was a more favorable night to try that, but I maintain he is better following up close than fending off challenges. That cheque makes him move up..before winning. Bit player tonight with the chance to develop into a win shot player in December if he keeps on track and learns to accept a trip at this level.

Dreamy Fella is another who gets class relief tonight and needs it. The jury is still out on him, and he might be another of Weller's that he is tinkering with before he tags him again and jams him 3 times for the purse money and the claim when they wont let him steal anymore. We have seen that Jones Shooter movie already the last couple of weeks. I will go elsewhere tonight, but I watch.

Jack Rackham has tried various styles and classes, and none have added up to a win, or even much close to it. I think Montini would be very happy if they wrote a 4yo 20 claimer in the New Year. He is probably worth more than 15 plus at this stage, but these seem beyond his reach to me.

Tango Star has 2 lifetime wins and has been sucker money many times in his life. That isn't his fault, but its indicative that he is generally overrated and has to move up here while not performing well a step below. Toss for me. 

Migrate Blue Chip gets to drop back down, but based on his last race, and last turn issues, I cannot go near him. I've never liked him anyway and he has been overbet his entire life. He is almost 5 and has 2 lifetime wins.

The Illuminator is a hanging rat. I can toss him with complete confidence that he is not dangerous in this spot, for openers.

Redonkulous No shot. Too many variables to matter. Just know he is. 

Race 8
Dragin the Wagon takes the class drop and gets the relief he needs. Those were pretty much Preferred types he tried to trot with last time, and he simply isn't one of those, although he gave it the college try. He didn't completely cave, and that is a good sign. He can leave hard and trots smooth, willingly. This is a good spot for him.

Catch the Dream took the big class drop last time, but blew up at the gate, looking like he struck himself and that was that. He comes right back and I can forgive that race and view him as viable if he brings a more reasonable price. He has some talented ones inside him though, and this wont be the cakewalk that last race would have been if he had been ready to trot the entire mile.

Cash for Gold has never been the most consistent type, and he also starts poorly then falls into tough and sometimes impossible trips. He also can trot a storm in the lane, as he is a big rangy trotter with speed, if.......they go enough in front of him and he finds the right flow. He beat these 2 back. Shot, but the price has to be right. I'd think 9-2 is about right. 

Zeus Lightning trotted a decent mile for 2nd last time at this level, well back of the winner, and generally, they were a lot softer and not nearly as deep as this bunch. He seems to just come around a few times a year, and that might be the case now. I like others, but he wouldn't shock me. 

Olympic Son moves up off a win. He hasn't been sharp for awhile. Reid is gone south, Boyd takes over, but I have to see more from him. Pass tonight. He is capable, but others look more viable.

Its Huw You Know made two mistakes in a row and is a bad behaving one. He is good when he doesn't get up to his antics. He will have to show me he is stopping that behavior. I don't see it. I gave him the benefit of the doubt for last time. Enough of that from me.

White Becomes Her drops in class, but she is ofer on the year and has trouble when there is more contention in a race like this. I don't think this is the right spot for her tonight. Pass. She drops her bottom line and gets to take a massive class drop next time to the bottom class. I expect her to be buried and take 5th at best.

Murmur Hanover went to Flamboro to steal money last time and wired them. Back here, he folds like a suitcase if pushed. These are tougher than the ones he couldn't even fend off. He is the ML choice. I wouldn't even bet him at 20-1 in with this bunch.

Ramas Last Son is a bit player type unless he goes low enough, and gets the 9 hole again. I like others and will take my chances post plus class equals wait another day.

Race 9

Never Been Told  was first time lasix last time, and wired the bottom level claimer. By many. Good enough for me. He has a big shot. The class rise only matters if the ones who race in the class above have that extra class. Most of these currently do not show it. They are borderline 8's. He beat those.  

Outlaw Gunpowder drops back in to the class he fits well. I mentioned the last couple of weeks I thought he was over his head. He is now back where his grinding style can wear down the ones he grinds. However, he might be tired chasing those that were beyond his means. That happens. I call him 2nd because of that. 

Cundalini has raced well twice at this level if you toss his 10 hole race in between those. He isn't my top choice, but he has a shot if the ones I pick don't show up or don't get the trip they need.

Er Quinn got the right trip last time, but as usual, he was wonky coming to the wire. He held together, and he can be dangerous when he gets things to go his way, like last time. I will play that they don't this time, and he gets beat.

Cobalt Man the wild card in the bunch. He has been going in the wrong direction for awhile now. Last time he had trip excuse, but no excuse to hang in the lane when the ones in front of him appeared spent, yet he could not pass any of those. He drops again, and the combo of Fillion and Moreau plus the drop will get him bet again, maybe even the favorite. I will go against him again. He has been a failure for a long time. One of those Rock N Rolls with the no try attitude you hear about. He made 400k when he was younger, but he is fading fast as a viable A track racehorse.

Vegas Rich is an interesting addition to the mix. Gibson had him his entire life, but Mike Stoikopolous has him now, and he has a history of gradually sorting out an underperformer like this. I will watch closely as he brings him here for a try at A track competition. Not tonight as a play.

Intended Style parked the entire mile last time, but to his credit, he kept at it and didn't completely cave. He draws the 10 hole here. That is enough to do him in in my book.
Gunpowder doesnt seem to have a style that can produce a win at this level. He can make the tri coming late if others cave and backpeddle. I cant see him winning as is.

Who Doesnt was claimed for 8, and to me, that is what he is. Any class rise above that takes away the shot he has. Pass.

Light Foot Rd draws outside for horrifically low percentage trainer Fuller. No shot.

Race 10

Home James was blasted last time in his 2nd try at the Autumn. So much for that. He does show signs, and Trevor can make a difference here. I will list him top call, but I have to have my price. That price is the ML, 8-1. 

Sharky Shark tried the nw2 off his lone race, a win in the maidens. He came a big back half and looks like a player in a spot with not many who are that dangerous looking.

East End was moved on the last turn last time, but looked like he wanted to run again, which is what he does. He held together, but its anyone's guess which one he will be here. I'd have to see him parade to make a guess, and it would just be a guess, as he only does it at very high speed on the turn. Use him, but he can go either way. He is no lock.

Jrs Big Buddy proved me wrong last week by leaving hard and sticking with the top pair all the way. I will eat crow on that comment. He is possible, but he has to show it wasn't a fluke.

Shadowfall missed last week and I thought that was a good spot for him. I had him listed 2nd there. These seem a bit tougher for him to handle, and being that he can be a cheater, I expect Vanderkamp to bury him and race him easy. I go to others. He is possible, but others look more viable.

Putnams Legacy won 2 races at 2, but none since in 30 tries. Hard to knock his 53 mile last time, but that was tagging along to a horse that went in 51. Does he have hidden form, or did he just go fast and will regress to competition? At the end of the day, he backed away in the lane and lost lengths. That is what they pay for. Not how fast you go, but who you beat. Minor shot, but its hard to back him unless he is bombs away, like say, 30-1.

Red John is a 2yo who beat maidens but now draws outside and faces nw2. That is a recipe that leads to a phrase called pass.

King of Sports got around clean with Phil, but loses him to the 7. Hopples back on. They were off for a reason. You only pull hopples if you think that helps a horse that needs help. I will watch. 

Century Churchill continues to be a bit player now that he has finally got the maiden monkey off his back. He now has the no mans land tag on his chest. Prove me wrong.

Winning Drive has a pedigree, form and connections that make it easy for me to toss him. His slow leaving style also is not a plus.

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