Monday, May 18, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 18, 2015

Overall Bets: $
 Best Win Bet: $10 win on Southwind Indy in the 9th
Best Longshot Win Bet:
$10 win on Lets Wait And See in the 2nd
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Charmed Life in the 3rd
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Lets Wait And See in the 2nd
Best exactor bet: Race 2  $4 ,  1-3 with 1-2-3-5 $24
Longshot exactor bet:  None
Best Exotic Bet: :
Worst Bet: Split The House to win. $10
Most likely high superfecta payout: Race 5

 Race 1


Renegade Magic $6 to win
Buzz $4 to win
Innkeeper  $2 to win

Renegade Magic- Looks ready to go right out of the box. Saftic drives a lot of horses for Dunstan, and his charge looks good in here too, but he elected for this one instead. Saftic hasn't exactly been loaded with power lately, so any chance he can get to latch on to a stakes type colt, he is making that choice. She didn't need to start up close to go 58 in her qualifier, which would certainly take this bunch, and with her apparent last quarter speed, she appears to only need a clean trip to circle. All of this assumes good behavior of a green filly. The price is likely worth the risk of that here.

Buzz-I was tempted to use him in the top spot. Stakes caliber colt with the potent combo of Fillion and Blais. But the 9 hole is not easy, and Blais has a habit of having them ready but not racing them that hard first start off the shelf. So, I will slot him in the 2nd position and go with a bigger priced option on top.

Innkeeper- Qualified faster than my top choice with Saftic, but he went to him instead. If that one blows up, as young green colts are prone to do, this one wouldn't shock me. P Mac is very good with green trotters. Never forget that. It looks like this one has got his act together from his very juvenile behavior at 2. We shall see if race conditions will prove that out. Qualifiers aren't real races. 

Play Against:  OnTheroad de vie
Its a tough bunch to sort overall as it is. But, something with talent in this bunch is going to show up tonight. This one is the type that gets beat every week and this week looks no different. At 0 for 14 and 30k already in earnings, he looks like the type who might grind out 40k this year being in the mix and winning the odd one at the B's in the grassroots program. Tonight, he meets several who are likely destined for better. One of them will be in front of him at the wire. 

Race 2


Lets Wait And See  $6 to win

Lets Wait And See- Left very poorly from post 9 last time, but closed up monster ground and got as close as he could. From a better starting spot, and with two likely contenders inside him who I think can't or wont attempt to outleave him but will likely backstretch move to take the lead, he could get the right kind of trip to win this. The price will be right. I will take my shot with him. It should be noted he had 1 month between starts due to sickness and last time showed he was fit and healthy. If he can add a second or a bit more here, he is certainly righ there. Top call.

Sportskeeper-Has very little reason to be raced all out to win this one, which he certainly can if he falls into it. But, I don't see him being raced all out and likely shows up 2nd or 3rd. I wouldn't leave him off any exotic, for the win or any other position, but not my top call at the very probable short price he comes with tonight.

Aramblin Hanover- Is always around, and these types win one eventually. There just seem to be too many good ones in here to think he can take them all down. I wouldn't be shocked if he did though. Every dog has his day. I wont use him, but I wont play against him either. He is probably in the 8-1 range, and that is dangerous enough to not mess with him. He does have good overall and gate speed. That has to be respected.
Play Against:  
Windsong Leo
There is nothing much not to like about this guy, but they all go down at some point, and the talent pool is getting deeper, fresher and classier now that the weather is warmer and he is out of the lower ranks. His swoop em style wont carry as much punch now. Does he have another weapon to fork over? Maybe. But tonight, I say he races great, but gets beat. 

As mentioned above, he is talented and the connections are solid. But, the price will be short and the motivation might not be too high. I will play against that short price for value. He could beat me. I admit that.

Race 3


Charmed Life  $10 to win

Charmed Life- She is much the best of this bunch. As long as she shows up, doesn't get held up or raced in a manner that precludes her win chances, she should just blow by these at the tote board or earlier. Top call and most likely winner on the card.
Play Against:  
All the rest
While there are some pretty talented fillies in this race, which certainly include Rockin With Dewey and Riveting Rose..and others, I can't see any of them taking down the sharp and hopefully motivated Charmed Life. I will play against them all.

Race 4


Rollwiththepunches  $6 to win

Jeb  $4 to win

Rollwiththepunches- Post 10 is always tough and even though Coleman is great with horses off long layoffs, it wont be easy to go all the way around the entire field. But, this horse paced a back half in 54 to show he is ready to do that, and his class from last year far exceeds this field. I will play him on top, and hope there is enough value attached to accept the risks that come with the factors I have mentioned which could foil him.

Jeb- Showed flashes of ability at times last year and these aren't terribly tough once you get past my top choice. He could get on the engine and wire this bunch under the right circumstances. The track was deep and the weather miserable last week for his first start back off the layoff,  and he was mired in the middle of the pack dealing with it. I give him a pass for those reasons and expect a price that makes him playable here. He has a shot.

Play Against:  
Windsong Lightning
Goes Gangell to Menary on the suspension.
The change and to the combo of Jody and Menary is likely to shorten the price, and I don't see him as that much better or even as good as other in here. I will play against that angle and the low odds that come with it.

Lancaster Park
This was a colt I liked a lot last year and played heavily a few times, and he came through when the circumstances were right. I think he needs at least one start out of the box. He does have one crazy wicked brush, but he likely needs some conditioning to carry that more than he usually does. He is on my radar but tonight I'd take on his action.

The Shadow Knows
They don't come much unsounder than him,and while he does have some talent and grit, the competition continues to get stiffer and wear him down as he tries in vain to keep up. I think he is maxed out on this circuit and will do okay in the summer in the Grassroots in places like Kawartha,  Rideau and Georgian, where the 5/8ths is his best fit..if he lasts that long soundness wise.

Race 5


Adore Him  $6 to win

Windsun Stetson  $6 to win

Adore Him- Got parked the mile last time from the outside and packed it in down the lane. His second bad post in a row. You don't see Condren send a colt at 40-1 out like that unless he thought it was going to get there. So, there must have been a problem. Robinson is very good at turning around horses in a week. We saw that with Nickle Bag when he looked bad and turned right back around and passed them all in the Preferred.

The track and conditions were awful last time. That gives him the one pass and get out of jail free card for me tonight. If he does that again, he is personna non grata for me.  Better post this time, and it isn't as deep a bunch as you sometimes see with maidens. My first choice in this race and hoping for decent odds.

Windsun Stetson- Seems capable enough and is heading in the right direction. He was Phil's choice over the 10,  which isn't a tough call all things considered. He is in the mix and certainly can take down my top choice, or others if he bombs out like last time. 3rd start off the shelf and I expect he is closer to the pace and moving early this time. 

 Fashion Maven- Certainly has the breeding and fits with these. I don't like him enough to play him, but I think he has a minor enough shot not to play against him. Have to see what he's got. I am generally not thrilled with any Vernon shipper onto this circuit until they show me they can hack more talented and deeper fields than you will face there.
Play Against:  
Tee Roy
Another Balmoral shipper for MacIntosh, the second from the same connections. The first one got it done, but looked about as bad as you can doing it. I think the luck runs out this time.
Randy took the one last week, he passed on this one.

Mach The Casbah
First time Moreau from Rideau is a very good angle, but they don't all win and this one has competition and likely a short enough price because that angle will be played, in spite of the horse not showing that he would justify those odds. If he had drawn inside, that might be a different story. He didn't.

Race 6


Good Friday Three- There is no way a horse like this should lose this race. But they do all the time. I can't play against him, because I really like the horse, but I won't take 2-5 or less on him, so I have to pass the race entirely. If I was to play a pick 4, I'd use him and find two others that are likely to be there if he isn't. I will give you the two I think are those horses in this race.

Official Prince- Shows up tonight with a month between starts, and a trainer change from a guy I've never heard of to another guy I've never heard of. His last was pretty good, but not spectacular for Pompano. However, horses like this seem to pop up and just beat you from time to time, and you note the reasons why after the race. If you are shopping for a giant killer here, this would be the one for me. 

 The Spy- Is still NAC eligible, and that means enough to take him seriously. He left hard and got parked from the 10 hole last time in his first start of the year and held 2nd against another one who looks like a bearcat, relative to these.

 Race 7


Crafty Master  $4 to win

Cheyenne Reider  $4 to win

Crafty Master- Is obviously a not very sound horse with a lot of talent who didn't fullfil his potential and will bounce around these types of claiming classes, winning when the trip and his soundness allow him to do so. His trainer resembles this horses name, and as such, he is an okay play at this class level for the price you can have tonight. Minor play for me.

Cheyenne Reider- He is crazy fast, and when things work out, he can just outspeed them. That has worked from time to time. You would have to put him in the mix. Another minor play in a bunch where week to week, it could be one of many.

 Play Against: 

 F Twenty Two
Dips even deeper into the pool because his owner trainer doesn't want to lose him for 12k, which he surely would if he jammed him back in there. In the game he plays, a horse like this is hard to come by and sometimes you move up, race for a cheque and wait for the chance to find another spot to win and hold on to the horse. In any event, not winning this race tonight. These are far tougher than he has faced and beaten in recent times. Can't see him being more than a bit player here at the wire. 

Amble Over Hanover

Is a very form driven and trip dependent horse who appears on the down side of that form now and to have used up his good trips card. I liked him a month ago, and think he would be better off in at least one class lower now.

Real Rocker

Won at the bottom off a perfect trip, which he needs. These are way tougher than anything he has handled and I don't see him even making the ticket, let alone winning.

Race 8


Daylon Magician  $6 to win

Daylon Magician- I generally avoid this horse and the short odds he brings. I think the layoff and the post might give me the type of odds I would hope makes him viable. I am looking for at least 8-5, and I think that will be there. The other thing I like is the setup of the race. If he leaves hard he can get a 2 hole trip behind the Gasman and this horse has shown before he is better following in the middle stages and comes home better when he does. Top call on him, but I am not 100% sold everything will go his way. Hard to like any of the others enough to play them or book them, so I will not.

Race 9


Southwind Indy  $10 to win

Southwind Indy- This one has always impressed me most of the group Casie carried over to 3. I think he is ready to pop right out of the box, and with the 3 horse the likely chalk,  the price will be right. 

Velocity Headlight - He appears to be very sharp, the post is right and the price will be very good. Des knows how to tune them up when they need a bit of tuning. I think he is the one if my top choice craps out like two of his stablemates did Saturday nights.

Physicallyinclined - Cant be faulted for his last race and he is still on the big payday hunt. So, I suspect they want to see what he is made of tonight, against much better than he beat last time. I think he comes up short,  but I would not play against him.

 Play Against: 

  All the rest

I am very certain one of my top 3 gets it done, so I will book anything that is left over.

Race 10


 Play Against:

Etruscan Hanover- He is much improved, but he is not bulletproof. I can see another short price on him coming and I am not willing to go anywhere near that, or play any of these against him. However, I do think there is at least one in here to take him down,  so I will play against him. If I play the last pick 4,  I would probably take 6 or 7 others and leave him off. Tarot,  Bags For All and Kate Smith being the ones I would feel safe leaving off that ticket.

Race 11


Speed Racer-I will play the first time Cirasoula angle here. Others certainly look miles better than him, but they all have reasons to go against them, which I will detail below. I like that Massey is aboard here. If there is intent, there will be no games or holes given. If he is a big go, he goes and you live with whether or not he is good enough. I will bet my money to find that out. 

  Play Against:
 Mikes Powerhouse
I've never been a big fan of this horse,  and I feel confident he isn't beating me tonight at a pretty short price. He is very well bred and connected, but he has not even close to lived up to that hype yet. I have to see him,  but tonight doesn't seem like the night. 

 Twin B TK 
Won his last, but didn't look good doing it. He jumps from straight maidens into a NW2 with a bunch of highly regarded stakes colts. I doubt even his best would beat all of these. He is more likely to make 3rd or 4th if he is okay after all,  which I am suspicious of to begin with.

 Librado Hanover 

Won his maiden okay but gave it up last time and these are far tougher than that bunch. I think he is going to live in this class for quite a while yet. No diploma for him tonight.  

  Split The House
Was a well meant, well bred and well regarded winner in his maiden debut. Even the best of maidens have a tough time stepping up to NW2, and since he was also very green in his debut, some of these are likely beyond his reach tonight. He is possible, but the short price tells me to play elsewhere, as I have with my top choice, who likely wont get near this colt in the fall, but might be ahead of him enough at this stage.

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