Thursday, May 21, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 21, 2015

Overall Bets: $
 Best Win Bet: $10 win on Unique Baran in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Ms Sangria in the 10th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Unique Baran in the 7th
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Tailwind Hanover in the 10th
Best exactor bet: None
Longshot exactor bet:  None
Best Exotic Bet: : None

Worst Bet: Unabating to win. $10

 Race 1


Thoughtful Leader  $6 to win

 THOUGHTFUL LEADER Was floating out last time to work his way to the top when the one in front of him looked like a runner. Mario had to take hold at that point and that was all that this green, but talented colt needed to lose his way and take himself out of it. He was well regarded however and the word in the paddock is that he is going to be very good. I give him the green colt pass in that one and will play him on top with the likely better price now that the smart money burned a hole in their pockets last time. His back half the previous start suggests he can probably trot in 57 or better, and that would likely handle this bunch. 


ETERNAL QUEST shows back up as a 3yo after showing some promise at 2. He trotted a strong and fast qualifier and that lands him in the ML 2nd favorite slot. He is likely to be the post time favorite. He also went very soft fractions and only had to sprint home. That only means we don't know what he is like when he doesn't get to do that type of thing. He is in the mix, but a short price would be too short for me. Milner is a good trainer, so, he should be ready to go.  Fillion has sat behind him every time he has appeared on the track. That is a plus. He knows him. That counts for something behind the gate and when he drives him in the race. 

Play Against:

TSWALU while talented, is now 0 for 13 and has found a variety of ways to get beat. Bad traffic, too late, out trotted down the lane by a better one. Excuses are for losers, and so are short prices on trotters who know how to lose. Another short price is likely tonight, and that leads me to go against him, not with him. One of these days he is going to win this class. That day could be Labor Day. He does have excellent final quarter speed for this class, and that is a plus. But, based on the trips he gets, he appear to only have that if he isn't working for it early, and the driver keeps him in for a reason. Don't be fooled by the way he finishes when he doesn't pull out and go after the leaders earlier.

ARIELLA I never underestimate Zeron, as he is a master horseman. But, I suspect this young filly is being educated so she can be whatever she can be when the stakes season starts. She could be the type that can go 56 or 57 right now, but based on the qualifier, she likely isn't going to be allowed to do that tonight, even if you presume she can at this point..which is somewhat of a leap of faith anyway. I will be watching. I want to see what this one brings to the table. Donato's are erratic and also very fast and talented. Her mother was a good one. She likely is also and Zeron is going to take care of that to make sure he gets the most out of her. That isn't winning a maiden right out of the box.



Cottonwood Creek  $6 to win
Machmeter $2 to win

 COTTONWOOD CREEK based on her qualifier, and her breeding,she looks like the one to me in this contest. I suspect others will think likewise and she gets significant tote money at post time. I wouldn't want to take less than 8-5 on a first time starter like this, but she is likely the picture taker here. If she starts as poorly as she did again she could be subject to traffic and flow problems. First time starters don't always know how to overcome adversity like that. Careful taking the short price here. 

  MACHMETER has shown flashes at times, and like most Keyes horses, will likely just pop into gear at some point. I wouldn't toss her tonight in this soft bunch, but post 9 is a problem. Bit player but she could step up any night now. Tonight? Maybe. I'd use her in the double if you are playing that. Her racelines, overall time and back halves are in line with this bunch. She is a decent price option if you hate the chalks. I hate all but one of them. 

Play Against:

 PUT YOUR BAD ON I was not impressed with this filly at all last year. Hudon kept her buried and even when she did shake loose, she didn't go forward like you would expect. I suspect he knows she isn't much and he is trying to get as much as he an out of her. The positive post position improvement over her first two this season brings the shorter price. I don't think it changes her racing chances. Unless I see otherwise from her. She is 9 starts a maiden, and I could see that growing to 20 if she isn't moved to a B track where she doesn't have to finish well to win.

 NORTHERN BEAUTY I am always suspicious of any horse that ships in from Northfield, Balmoral, Maywood or Scioto. Any of the midwest tracks where the fields aren't deep, the tracks are lightning fast and the speed is cheap. You see very soft halves and then one horse who can just pace around horses who can't go entire miles when the money is on the line. That changes when you arrive on a circuit like this. Until proven otherwise. We have seen numerous times this week how those horses have blown up trying to keep up. 

ABBIJADE HANOVER looks like the type that might burn chalk money for a while, showing fast miles and closing from out of it. The hope is she will progress, but these types sometimes don't. It takes a while to figure that out. Potential is great, but at some point you have to step up and actualize that. So far in her career, from the tote board home, she just doesn't do enough. Her breeding suggests to me she wont, and she might break her maiden at some point at this track, but is more suited to a B track like Georgian. Blais simply isn't as good with young pacers as he is with trotters and many just don't get it done and get shipped or sold. I can't bet her on this circuit with all those factors going against her.

 Race 3


Halo Effect $4 to win
Gronk $4 to win

 HALO EFFECT could be anything, and you can't ignore a first time starter that trots a last quarter in 27 flat. I'd rate her on top based on the odds I might get and a crafty horseman like Zeron holding the lines. The rail concerns me for reasons I have mentioned before with very green trotters. Top call, but suspect and risky, obviously.

 GRONK is the wildcard in this bunch. He appears ready to go right away, and he faced far tougher than any of these have seen so far last year, where he was okay with them when behaved. Jody knows him and is likely to send him right out for the lead. He seems logical enough here. 

SETANTA looks logical enough from the 5 hole. He has put 2 good starts together, closing fast in  in the last, with solid last quarters in both. He is obviously being prepped for the Sire Stakes, and it is yet to be determined at which level he fits. Tonight, he shows up in a maiden again, but there are others who also have the type of ability and potential he shows. He is in the mix. I'd want odds. Condren is a plus with this type, for sure. He does need to start better to be more win worthy.

 BOLI is remembered last year for being as fast as he is erratic, like most very young trotters. He shows back up tonight as a colt who has now been taught to sit back and rate and use his speed in a more tactical way. It does concern me that J Mac is driving him for the first time. He might be tricky and I wouldn't touch him at short odds for that reason.

 ASPEN CALIFORNIA spent the winter in Florida learning to be a race horse. There were significant growing pains for sure. The qualifier was fantastic, but one qualifier does not a race horse make. She does have a speed pedigree and should be one to watch. For tonight, others have more experience and appear a tad more reliable. Just a tad though.

 Race  4



 Play Against:

CORSICA HALL shows up after a long winter layoff and a month since his qualifier. I can't like him tonight under those circumstances, and will play against his likely relative short price.

RUSTYS OVERLOAD showed flashes of the ability he displayed in his last qualifier last year, but he also showed a very wonky gait and bits of lameness at times which compromised his chances. Until I see otherwise, I play against the likely short price he brings tonight from that fast line.

 DEETZY is your typical Jeremes Jet on this circuit. He follows along fast enough and looks good doing it, but he doesn't win when he has to come out and work for it. His record suggests that he will continue that pattern tonight. These aren't altogether soft.

BIG MAGICK has progressively gotten worse, both soundness and overall finish determination. He is hard to like unless he shows he is going in the right direction. Currently, he appears to be going the other way.

 Race 5


Ok Heavenly $4 to win
OK HEAVENLY is one you could take a shot at with here. She is from a dam who has produced several good ones and she looks as good at any of these. I'd play her if she brought 6-1 or higher.

A FELLAS SECRET  has some ability, but her soundness and the resulting breaking problem holds her back. She is one to consider if she can keep it together.

Play Against: 

 RIDE AWAY SHARK has not impressed me because she tackled tough fillies in the Princess, where she was wildly outclassed. Back here, she is sucker money if she draws a short price here. She has not shown me she is any better than the top 4 or 5 here.

EVAS GIRL Moves from Core to McNair for new owners. 10 hole is tough, but she matches up well with this pretty soft bunch. I can't play what I expect is a very short price from out there, so I will just play against the ones who look like sucker money. 

 Race 6


Lost In Panslation $4 to win
Proceed to Party $2 to win

 LOST IN PANSLATION this is just the kind of field this horse beats. He certainly can make front and be in position to outfinish a very suspect bunch. Top call, but beware of anything less than 5-2 on him. He knows how to lose.

 PROCEED TO PARTY  goes first start for Lou Eft, who has luck turning these non performing Midwest rats into bearcats for a few weeks on this circuit. I'd certainly use this guy on that angle. Hard to tell if he will be that type, or just a horrific rat whose next stop is Flamboro or Hanover. He is worth one chance tonight at a big price. 

Play Against: 

 I would play against most of the rest, specifically Click Boom, P L Gyro, Bad Outlaw and Greystone Moe, who all have significant issues that make them suspect most nights.

 Race 7


Unique Baran $10 to win

Unique Baran goes 2nd start off the claim for Stewart, who turned him last fall as well and did very well with him. Trevor knows him, and likely sends him down the pike. He was 2nd best to a bearcat in his last that nobody was touching that night. Top call. 

Don't like any of the others in here.

Play Against: 

Adversary Seelster is fire saled by Moreau tonight, and he simply has not worn well after going after some tough customers last summer. Play against him and the short price.

Loves A Challenge has a history of having trouble on this circuit. Off that Sarnia mile, and Fellows as trainer, I will play against the shorter price he might bring tonight.

Vital Sign. 10 hole. Pass.

 Race  8


Imminent Respone $8 to win
Tymal Colusses $6 to win

 Imminent Response took action last time and looked okay enough. CC returns to steer him, and I will play him time at the price. He is certainly beatable. He avoids Hava Kadabra this time, and many of these are not appealing at all.

Tymal Collusus raced great last time, only picked off by one he meets again in here. The better post this time means he doesn't have to work for it as hard. I say he lasts, and its between him and my top choice.

 Play Against: 

Unabating came off the shelf at the bargain basement price. He got it done, but he looked awful. I will play against him tonight. He would have to be a lot sounder to get it done this time.

 Race  9



P L Idaho just didn't have it last time, bearing in a bit too much and now comes back adding lasix. He is a huge monster who has many gears when right. I will go back to him tonight. Another short price is coming. I'd want 4-5 this time, and I don't think I will get it, so I will pass the race.

Rather Swell ended up first up last time, and that was no good for him. Maybe he can get a better trip this time and luck into a win. I'd play him at a price. I'd want 6-1 minimum to take a shot. The top choice is a bearcat, but he is suspect. We saw that last time. It was awful weather when this guy raced, and I can give him a pass for spitting it out down the lane off that trip under those conditions. He has a shot. Minor shot.

Mr Carrots is the type that could be great tonight, or not show up. Your call. I will avoid him tonight as he is likely a shorter priced 2nd choice to my top call.

 Race  10


Miss Sangria $6 to win
Tailwind Hanover $4 to win

I will go back to Miss Sangria one more time. She is what she is. Most of these aren't much better. At least she can leave and follow. One of these times she will fall into a pocket trip in back of a leader who gives it up. That could be Tailwind Hanover tonight.

Tailwind Hanover has issues, for sure. Running in bad is one of those. But, she also has some talent, and this is a pretty soft bunch. After burning chalk money 3 times in a row, the faithful ditch her tonight, and I jump on board for the price and the shot. She is one of many who could be dangerous because most of these aren't that dangerous to begin with. 

DancingatNight raced okay enough last time, and finished fast to only get beat 2. She is in the mix, like many in here. I wouldn't play her, I wouldn't book her either.

Play Against: 

Got Some Spark has sucker money written all over her at the short price she brings tonight. But, it is only her 2nd lifetime start, and many of these don't know how to deal with racing hard week in, week out at this stage. She could go out and blow these away. At short odds tonight, I will play against that chance.

Franney Love Dat changes barns again. I suspect the owner thinks more of this filly than the trainers do and he is searching for power that isn't there. Play against for me. She is a 16 time maiden now. There are enough okay ones in here to make that 17.

 Race  11



I could see Rothblissberger on the drop, but I could also see many others coming up, or blowing up. I will just pass this bunch. It was tough enough to get through the first 10. This one was just too tough to bother with. 


Additional notes.

Race 1

BALLYKEEL BOMBER Tried WEG once, but was quickly shuffled off to Flamboro to boss those types around. It took two to get that done, and now he comes back with Per still at the lines. He was foolishly tried in his one start at 2 in the Gold and that was a disaster. I would argue that he might be better off staying at Flamboro for now and continuing to learn to trot over those ovals, as he is likely heading for a season of Grassroots tries at the B's. I think as the ML fave, although he isn't likely to be the post time fave, with all things considered he is a poor bet tonight. I will keep tabs on him and look to play him when a real driver gets handed the lines.

 MS KRISTINS BABY trotted a back half in 57, both splits quick, and draws inside this time after a month between starts. The rail seems like death to a green trotter at WEG, so I wont play her tonight but will watch to see if she is legit with hopefully a closer up start. I wouldn't be shocked if she got it done tonight, but my gut tells me to wait for another day. She is on the radar. Shakes is very good with young trotters and she definitely has a speed pedigree. I wouldn't be surprised if she is taking down Grassroots wins this summer. 

TURN A BUCK raced at Flamboro last time with Ballykeel Bomber and didn't get near him, a similar result to all the rest of the lines on the page for him. Hard to like this one and Holland has a history of tossing them out there until they come around. Tonight, I just can't see it. This is an education race at best for this one. At some point, this one might show some talent and form and be a good fall or winter horse when the experience he gains meets the weak fields he might need to be competitive.

ARIELLA I never underestimate Zeron, as he is a master horseman. But, I suspect this young filly is being educated so she can be whatever she can be when the stakes season starts. She could be the type that can go 56 or 57 right now, but based on the qualifier, she likely isn't going to be allowed to do that tonight, even if you presume she can at this point..which is somewhat of a leap of faith anyway. I will be watching. I want to see what this one brings to the table. Donato's are erratic and also very fast and talented. Her mother was a good one. She likely is also and Zeron is going to take care of that to make sure he gets the most out of her. That isn't winning a maiden right out of the box.

WARRAWEE QUATRE Was a total flop in 3 starts at two and comes to the big track to start out this year. That is a curious thing, and that makes me suspicious. I will watch him tonight to see if he is the type who doesn't have enough overall speed for the big track, but has issues with getting around a B track like Hanover, which is likely where he ends up for Fritz. There might be value in beating him there. Tonight, he is a non factor for the ticket. 

 I FEEL GOOD shows nothing to this point to suggest she is even competitive with the also rans in this field. Pass.
 AUILA post 10 with a horse who was fifth of 5 at Sarnia with Green driving. Total pass for me.

Race 2

CASIMIR NANOOK is a 4yo maiden by a sire who sends out less than intelligent foals, but who do show speed. Her trainer has always been very low percentage, and she is 10 starts a maiden also has never made the ticket. These seem beyond her reach, and her fast last quarter last time does nothing for me unless she can show she can do something like that after she works for it earlier. Pass. 

 I C YOUR SHADOW has obvious issues and can't be played on this circuit unless they are sorted out. I see no evidence of that so far. Pass. 

 IMACUTIEPATOOTIE seems like one who could be dangerous in a field like this. She hangs around mid pack most times, and since many of these don't look that dangerous, the likely faves are young and vulnerable, if she were to trip out and find a seem, she could score at big odds. I wouldn't toss her and the price will likely be right. Contender. 

WINDSUN LISA beat some very soft maidens at London, but even though the weather has warmed up, she has not gone forward speed wise. Not sure why she is attempting this track at this point. No shot.

Race 3

(3) FORT YORK has been allowed to start slowly and simply out trot poor maidens at Flamboro. That wont cut it here. I have to see what he can do when he has to go faster and work for it. I will watch for tonight, but the time overall isn't an issue. The style he won with is.

(6) AUNT LOTTIE looks to have a future but she currently doesn't finish well enough to go with all of these. Pass tonight, but Larry Walker must always be respected with any trotter.

(8) WARKEN ON AIR is coming along as a late starting 4yo homebred. I will look for more improvement tonight, but this spot appears way too tough for him to get his picture taken. 

(9) MONSIEUR HALL is impossible to like based on his manners issue and overall lack of speed relative to most of these. Post 9 insures a likely 99-1 or higher price. I still wouldn't go near him.

(10) NOBLE LEGEND is likely out for just a test drive trip tonight, as he was sent back to dummy school with new pants to steady him. Watching for later. Not playing tonight.

Race 4

(6) THINK AGAIN is an ugly gaited rat like many of his siblings, and at this point, he is better off at Kawartha, where he is no cinch there either.

(9) TWIN B COMMANDER has the pedigree to go with these if he is healthy and fit. That is questionable. He is a month between racetrack miles, and at best he looks to follow tonight and show us what he can do. I will be watching. Not betting.

(10) SURF REPORT 10 hole for a non performing 14 time maiden who looks way outclassed here. Pass.

Race 5

2 STONEBRIDGE QUEST qualified okay enough, but I suspect a short price here and I wouldn't take it. McCabe's horses have a pattern of not coming off the shelf ready to go. I will watch her tonight.

(3) JACLYN HANOVER tripped out and outstaggered a very soft bunch at Flamboro last time. Not gonna work with these.


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