Thursday, May 28, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 28, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $8 win on Artful Way  in the 5th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $6 win on Up The Alley in the 1st
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Unique Baran  in the 10th
Best Show Bet:  $8 show on Authendick in the 2nd
Best exactor bet:
Longshot exactor bet:none
Best Exotic Bet: :
Worst Bet:  Piscean to win. $10

 Race 1


Up The Alley           $6 to win
Random Lightning  $4 to win

Up The Alley showed flashes of talent last year, but was like most 2 year olds--very erratic. He shows back up with the trotting hopples on, and Jamieson and Hayter have a long history of coming out of the box on a green trotter and one upping a suspect qualifier. Longshot chance. He did get 2nd in a Gold last year, and that must be respected. The talent is there.

Random Lightning tried to go down the road on these types last time and while he got a soft half and a pedestrian 3rd quarter, he still gave it up. However, that is two better efforts than anything he has shown before, and he seems able to leave and sit the trip, which he can get behind Piscean. In with a shot at a price. His last quarters are okay. If he lucks into the  2 hole and the fave makes a mistake, he could be ahead enough of the pack to score. Could.

 Play Against:

Piscean The obvious play, and a short price that will come with that. Should be right on the engine, and last most of the way. I watched her last, and she appeared all out and maxed out. That might be good enough tonight against a weaker bunch, but it might not. She might also not be as good. I will go against her with two others who have minimal, yet some upside tonight. 

The rest:

 Tortola Sunrise---is coming along and trotted a solid mile last time. She will likely graduate in the next few starts. Not tonight. She is on the radar though. I want to see one more clean line and her getting away closer.

  Century Atlantis---needs at least 2 more seconds and some grit that  I don't see there. Bit player at best and likely in the 50-1 range.H likely breaks his maiden at Grand River. Maybe.

Demand An Answer---started 4 times last year in the Grassroots and lucked into a couple of cheques, but was never racey or dangerous. New trainer this year, trotting hopples on, and might be okay if he shows me he is more mature now. Watching tonight. Shakes is good with young trotters. Lets see if he has a handle on this one.

The Sprinter---a first time starter for team Baillargeon, trotted an okay qualifier. He would need 3 more seconds to take this bunch down from the 8 hole. I don't see it tonight, but I will watch to see if he is a prospect, or one that will live in this class until Labor Day.

P L Intimadator---looks to have some talent, but also a wonky gait and suspect soundness. 9 hole only makes it tougher, and some of these appear better than him anyway. Pass tonight. I have to see corrections to his issues before I play him.

Windsong Luxury---is 0 for 15 and has the 10 hole, coming off a break and then a qualifier with the trotting hopples on and another break. Should be a scratch. Either way, zero shot.


 Race 2


Authendick            $10 to win
Ok Heartbeat         $8 to win

Authendick a first time starting homebred that is bred up to be good. Jody goes to her, and off that qualifier, she is likely ready to score. I think there are enough in here that she still brings a 3-1 price, which is value enough. She is likely to go forward quickly. "The filly also remains eligible to the Fan Hanover Stakes with eliminations on Saturday, June 13 here at Mohawk." was Gangle's comment, and that being the case, they will not be holding back tonight. 

Ok Heartbeat comes back at 3 appearing to be much more able and prepared to be a racehorse. Father and son Steacy offer a pretty healthy return when they team up for the bettors. She has a shot. I like my top choice more, but not by much.

 Play Against:

Black Queen one month off now and she was sick. Maybe she is better. She would have to be. She just hasn't panned out, and Jody has ditched her now also. From the 9 hole, against some solid prospects I can't see any scenario that gets her to the winners circle. She earns a nice living being 2nd and 3rd, and she might have 30k banked before she falls into a win at some point. Maybe in the fall when the right set of circumstances usually get these types across.

The rest:

 Twin B Sweetheart---has now been off 5 weeks, and has already showed that she could live in this class for a very long time, if she isn't taken to a B track to get the win. Pass.

Arrisvista Hanover---0 for 23 and likely on her way to KD or Georgian next time to see if she can compete with those. She is about 3 seconds short of the top few in here.

Nurse Molly---shows nothing to suggest she is even anywhere near the wheelhouse of these. As a first time starter, she is likely out for experience and to show what the next move is after tonight. I say that is a trip to the B's. She looks like a nickel bred to me.

Hear My Roar---First time starter from the 10 hole with no breeding and no apparent speed. What can I say?

Intend To Please---Got it done last time at London against a very soft bunch by backing the half down so much she just outsprinted them from the final turn home. That wont work with these. She would have to show me she is more than just a nice B track mid range horse tonight to even consider her for next time. This time, nope.

Terrorcam---At times, she shows flashes of the ability her dam had, and she is well bred. I am still watching for her to click in.  Pass tonight, but it will come, likely at boxcars. First start of the season, likely a test drive to build confidence.

 Race 3


LMC Marshmellow    $4 to win

 LMC MARSHMELLOW has seemed to finally become less of a speedball and more of a racehorse. She is 13 starts into her career and is still a maiden, which works to her advantage now that she has seemed to put it together. She is the logical play in here, and I will use her. The price will likely be somewhat short, so, tread lightly. Post improvement really helps her with her good leaving ability.

Boondock Daylighted a suspect bunch at London last time, and trainer/driver Borth brings him here to see how that translates. If you give him two seconds for improvement and 2 seconds or more for the track, he is in the mix here. His mother was a fairly decent hard knocking mare who raced on this circuit. He will need more last quarter speed on this circuit to beat them all.

P L Indynaca moved forward last time with a clean line and a fast back half to improve his overall time. His mother was a very high end stakes filly, and he could be anything. I wouldn't toss him tonight, but I want to see one more. He was tried in the Gold last year, which indicates they think he is better than he has currently shown. Lets see what he is made of tonight. Passing, but he is capable of doing it tonight.

 Play Against:


The rest:

Molon Lave---got around the track safely last time, for a clean line in his first start for a purse. Back half was okay, but not spectacular. He is a project. I will watch one more time tonight at the short odds. I want to see him do it again.

MY WAY THE HIGHWAY---first time starting homebred who gets the rail. Roger will likely test drive her to make sure she is ready to go next time. The talent is likely there for her to win tonight, but these types don't always race to win, and we all know Roger doesn't win many period. Watching.

Cincinati Miss---qualified okay after showing very little at 2, but she was allowed to float out of there in 31.2. She does that this time, she is back 10 or more lengths. I don't see Randy gutting her to make all of that up, when she is likely being pointed towards a shot at Grassrooots fillies in June. I want to see what she is like to see if there is a reason they are protecting her so far. She might have one limited brush, or she might just be coming to her overall talent slow. I just don't know yet.

Bubba VC---has not shown enough to me yet in his 3 starts to suggest he is any more than a bit player tonight. He has to step up.

Crazy Fiona---first time starting one that has to be seen. She hung back in her qualifier. No read on her yet.

Stormont Contessa---trotted a very fast mile last time while doing nothing and drops from nw2 to maidens, and has tried grassroots fillies last year. Cant use her, but she is a possible longshot. Beware. 

World Class Izzy---draws her 2nd straight 10 hole, and she also paced consecutive 28 and change quarters to close that one out. She must be watched closely tonight for next time, and she wouldn't shock me if she was on the ticket tonight, considering how suspect some of these are. ================================

 Race 4


Bettor Out West  $10 to win

Bettor Out West Has been successful at the B's and stepped up last time at this track to be a solid 2nd to one who is a bit ahead of her in overall experience. Randy is back, the post is good and she appears to be the best here, at a short but not outright terrible price. She is 7 for 10 on the ticket and knows how to win.

Zip Code Envy draws the 10 hole again, but he has a lot of talent. I wont play her for the win, but she could get it anyway. She has chased far better than most of these have ever seen or will see. That matters.

 Play Against:

INVEST IN ART posted a very fast qualifier, but I still think some of these are too tough currently to take down for this one. I will play against the short price. 

The rest:

LADY RICHMOND---miles over her head with this bunch.

ARTIAWITCHTOYOU---did not impress me soundness wise last year, and until I see otherwise, I watch..and pass tonight.

CANT STOP---always in the mix, but doesn't show the grit to beat these. Good winter horse.

FLOAT ON BY---just didn't do enough last time. Watching for a turnaround. Not tonight for the win, in my view.

SHESAGAMEMAJOR---lots of chances, but maybe one that hangs around at each class level while working her way up the ladder. Pass tonight, but she could prove me wrong.

 ENNISTYMON---needs at least one, assuming she is good enough period, which is still in question.

WARRAWEE QUALLY---9 hole for one that finds it hard to win off a perfect trip with maidens. Nuff said. 
 Race 5


Artful Way  $10 to win

Artful Way Appears to have a talent and experience edge on these. He is likely only a maiden because of what he as chased. Graduation time tonight.

 Play Against:

ONE TO DRAW TO did not look good to me pacing on the engine last time and ran in horrible at the end. As with most Major In Art's, he isn't likely to wear well. I will go against him here and the likely short price.

The rest:

SKY GUY---looked really bad last time at London. Cant recommend him until I see him pacing properly.

THREE RIVERS DELL---terrible hanging type. Not a WEG horse in my view.

 CANADIAN WRITER--like most Sportswriters, he has gone backwards as he races on.  That is a trend I see continuing. He is also now a month off.

CAJON THOMAS---was god awful last time at London. He is big and rangy. Maybe the big track picks him up. Watching to see if that is the case tonight.

DRAVEN SEELSTER ---has never shown me he can win at this track.

Surf Report---no shot.


Race 6



CIONA BROMACH comes to the circuit as one who could turn it around with the right trip from Fillion. No play in this race for me, but he would be a use in the pick 4. Bad bunch. He might be the best of that bad lot. Might.

Live And Learn  Ditto my comment above. He has shown flashes at this track before. All or nothing with him.

ARI ALLSTAR probably has more overall current upside than most here, but he just doesn't put out. Any night now, he might click in. Tonight? Who knows?

 Play Against:

HOPE FOR BADLANDS I've seen enough of him. He finds a different way to lose every time. I think that song just keeps on playing tonight. 

The rest:

BLISSFULL YEARS---form has turned really bad. Really bad.

MACH IT BIG ---has upset potential because he has potential and back class. If there is anything in here who could shock, its him. He needs everything to go right. If he has to work one step, he folds.

HAIL THE TAXI---has longshot potential in here. He would have to be really good tonight, but if he was, he could beat them all at a price. I will watch him. He just doesn't perform off great trips. That makes him hard to take, like most of these.

 DADDY WARBUCKS--10 hole and has never been gritty anyway. His current form is bad on top of that. Pass. Wait for better post and hopefully better form.

 KINDLY POET---3 7th's in a row. If he is to get a wakeup call, the phone must be off the hook. 


Race 7


P L Idaho  $10 to win
The Spy    $6 to win
P L Idaho  gets my top call. Even though he got completely out of gear last time, he still paced in 27 flat. If not for his mistake, he was going to circle them. Back on 7 days, I suspect whatever it was, is sorted out. He has a world of ability, so I will play him on the bounce back. My 2nd choice is no slouch, so he must be on his game. The likely price will allow me to take that gamble.

The Spy   is a serious horse who is still being pointed to the big dances. His very short anticipated price tonight makes me go elsewhere. He is the one to beat, and I think he gets beat.

ROCKIN IN HEAVEN would likely be a play for me if not for the 10 hole. I think he is raced easy tonight because of that. Even if he isn't, the top two aren't easy to pass for a green colt like him. Another day.

 Play Against:

Rustys Overload  I doubt he can handle this bunch. Maidens were easier and his issues resurface against real contenders, not followers.

The rest:

MCENROE HALL---3rd start off the shelf. He looks more like a follower than leader with this bunch. He will have to show where he fits on this circuit. He has not won over this track yet.

BRINGHOME THEBLUE---has longshot potential. On another night when there wasn't 3 legit contenders, he could blow up the board. Doubtful he could take all 3, assuming he is good enough anyway. 

READ THE PROPOSAL---in too deep with these.

BEACH BLAST---has never shown he can handle a bunch like this. Pass.

HALTON HURRICANE---shows flashes of nice ability, but not as much as some in here. 9 hole makes it even worse. Watching for a better spot for him. He has talent.


Race 8


Jayport Sunrise       $2 to win

 Jayport Sunrise Has been knocking on the door, and for whatever reason, J Mac goes to the 9 here. I still like her a bit to get it done at a price with Randy, but I don't have much confidence in any of these. 

 Play Against:

Hava Kadabra  has been rock solid for Luc and his connections. Tonight, first time Jonah Moase,  which is not a good angle, I will go against him. Luc seemed to get along with this horse well, and that can't be ignored now that he isn't controlling thing. Not many of these beat them 3 in a row.

The rest:

BACK TO PEACE---0 for 34 plus and counting. Can follow and get a part of the ticket, but rarely does enough to win outright. I see no reason to think that changes tonight. 

TIM T---has had 2 tries with these. the last was better than the first, and that provides some hope. Neither was near good enough to recommend for the win. So, I wont.

JUSTALITTLEFASTER--cant leave, and doesn't finish well.  Nuff said.

O U SEXY GUY---2 for 44 and the 9 hole. No thanks.

UTOPIA---has multiple issues,  which include soundness, breaks and no grit. 10 hole put the nail in the coffin tonight.

MAJESTIC VIEW ---has some level of ability but seems to find tough trips and doesn't get there. Looks to be a solid B track horse, and I will be on board with him then if he goes back there. I tried him once as a longshot here, and he didn't do .

BLUSH AND CRUSH---is a contender, but usually draws a short price, and isn't that live most nights. I think a few in here are currently better, but she could prove me wrong.

LADIES PLEEZ---is imposible to like off those racelines. No thanks.

Race 9



Ton Of Luck Has really come around in the last month, and gets better every time. Her overall time is not good enough, so I am leary to put money on her. She is my top call, but not with any confidence.

Delerium Showed some signs of life last time and was only passed by a fairly sharp one who never left the rail. Post 10 is tough. She is possible, but has never been the most consistent. I'd use her in the pick 4. She is as good as anything in here, currently. She was better than most last year when she was good.

Ha Jung Ships in with some very sharp miles at Northville. She has been solid gold for Cirasoula so far. She is in the mix here, but I suspect she is overbet. I want to see her once with these. It wouldn't shock me if she got it done tonight.

 Play Against:


The rest:

Knee Slapper---about as lame as you will ever see a horse pass the vet check. But, she just goes. I can't back a horse like that. She has yet to win on this circuit.

A Lot Of Sense---didnt look good at all on the track last time, and even when she was winning, didn't either. I cant back her as she currently is.  I think she is falling apart, as is the history with most from this trainer. Pass.

NOMATTERWHEN---cheap Pompano claimer off a month. No shot with these. She is more likely a 4 claimer at Dresden.

CHANTILLY ROSE---has not shown anywhere near enough overall speed or class to tackle these, assuming she races at all, which is in doubt. Non factor either way.

CHEEKIE--dives back into the claimer, 2nd start Bourassa. She has some speed but is a bit of a nutcase. She will get it done one of these nights. I will watch her again. I'd use her in the pick 4 if I play that.

ROCK GROUPIE---another Pompano shipper who didn't do enough first start this class and track. Can't see it. Cheque getter for now. Puddy probably takes her elsewhere for the score.

BYE BYE MICHELLE-- Got it done twice in a row off soft trips, but has tailed off since then. Pass.


Race 10


Unique Baran  $10 to place

Unique Baran is highly likely to double up on this bunch as Stewart jams him, as is his practice, to take another purse and lose him all in one shot. He will just go get him again when he is back down for 5.  Tonight, he looks tons the best to me. Very soft bunch. He is razor sharp. I'd make him my best win bet, but I think the price will be short. I will play him for place and hope for a longshot to go with him and boost that price. 

 Play Against:

Bettor Again  Is chronically lame at this point, and comes back lower every time. Tonight, bottom of the barrel. A couple in here wont lay down and play dead. Even if he is sound enough to go, I'm not sure he can take them, or even any of them. He has to be seen. I will take his action tonight.

The rest:

Royal Canvas---was backed heavily last time but did nothing. Chretien is one of the sharper guys out there with these types, so I am watching. He wouldn't shock me, but I like others better. He is on the radar for me.

Twin B Brat--takes the monster class rise. My rule of thumb: you can't beat Cat Four, you wont do at all on this track. 

  ICARE DE CHAFRA--shows up here, and while he did go a good mile last time at Three Rivers, these are way tougher and his spotty Rideau form is more indicative that he cant go with these when it counts. Pass.

Sea Donkey--is a very fast horse who got claimed last time by Perierra, and he was one of many that put in a claim. He looked terrible leaving and McNair babied him. He has upset potential here if he is fixed up, but I would have to see evidence of that first. Just watching tonight.

Scotty Mach N---was a terrible claim by Carmen and his connections, and he drops him down to the bottom tonight. Next stop Monticello. 

Race 11


Make Way  $4 to win

Make Way  Gets my top call, an longhshot stab for sure. 10 hole doesn't help, and she isn't the bravest to begin with. She burned tons of chalk money on the way to being claimed, then got parked the mile at Flamboro, only to return and race okay enough. The price should be huge tonight. I will take a shot here. 

All Chocolate  raced a huge trip last time. Tried to leave for position, but they all shut the door, so she parked the mile, with bad cover, and was coming and closing hard at the end. That likely draws some tote money tonight, and she might not get the trip, so, I will pass, watch and maybe play her next time if she races good again. She could win if the trip works out. That seems unlikely here.

 Play Against:


The rest:

KIKISKISSINKOUSIN--- wins her share with these, but last time, she barely got it done. She isn't the type that doubles up often, and there are enough contenders, even though most are likely pretenders, that somebody picks her up tonight. Likely on the ticket though.

MILEYS BIG WORLD---drops into a claimer, and obviously needs to. She was off a long time, and her soundness is in question. I'm not sure this is enough of a dive. I will watch. I say it isn't enough.

Kendal Gucci---is the type that could trip out and pass them all. That is unlikely, but not a complete flyer. She is hard to like, impossible to toss. I will do neither. She is likely too late on the scene, if she is even good enough tonight. Consistency isn't her strong suit.

JET HOT STUFF---not for the win. She just doesn't do enough when the speed picks up. Maybe next winter.

Larjon Laura---has hung twice now, and many times before that. She was good 2 months ago. She appears to be going in the wrong direction form wise. I have to see a turnaround before I go near her again. Jody sticks with her. He hasn't been able to motivate her.

Thrill Chaser---was very sharp, and won 2 back, just missed the time before that. She raced good last time, but she isn't likely to hold form. I will watch her tonight, but I think she is on the down side now. She could prove me wrong. These aren't very tough. Neither is she, as a rule.

One Last Bono---certainly the wild card in this bunch. First off the claim for Cirasoula, but off a month and she might get hung trying to get the lead here. Even if she is good tonight, she likely needs a start. Pass. 

Exhilerated---goes first off the claim for Carmen. She is possible, but unlikely from the 9 hole, for one that doesn't like to work for it. I think she gets played on the Carmen angle, and while I wouldn't play against her, she is bad value unless she proves to me she is any more than the rat who hangs every time.  


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