Monday, May 25, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 25, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 win on Adversity in the 5th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Ramas Last Son in the 3rd
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Adversity in the 5th
Best Show Bet:  $8 show on Justasmalltowngirl in the 3rd
Best exactor bet:
$6 exa pw 9 with  2,3,6 in the 9th
Longshot exactor bet:$4 exa pw 5 with 1,3,4,6,7,8 in the2nd $24
Best Exotic Bet: :
$1 pick 3...4,7 with 5,7,8 with 9  in the 7th
Worst Bet: West Side Story to win. $20

 Race 1


Tzia  $8 to win

Tzia very late starting mare who looked good last time. Her grandmother was one of the best the OSS has ever produced, and she was better as she got older. Her mother took a record at 3 then was bred. I assume this one didnt get in foal, so she races a few times, gets a good record and then gets bred next winter. Tonight, at a price, the record should get hung on her. Maybe 57 flat. That could do it.

My My Hey Hey how can you go against a horse named after a Neil Young lyric. First time starter for Wallace with Roger driving. Price might be okay enough to use him, and I would as part of the double, but only in a minor way. Others appear a bit ahead of him. I am watching to see what the maturity level is here.

 Play Against:

Anywhere With You  Well bred, first time starter for Alagna and Jody. Could produce. Could run before the gate leaves. Could just be not ready. Short price. I will take that action. He could beat me. He likely wont. If he gets to the half in 1:01 again, he will have a tough time catching all of these before the finish line. Maidens arent complete racehorses yet.

The rest:

 Muscles Rousey---99-1 plus with less than zero shot.

 Back To Black---has potential and I will be watching. Lets see how he fits with these.

 Rosies Pockets---will have to be seen. Likely a project horse.

 Yawkey Way---ships in from Flamboro and is in the mix. If the driver was different, I might use him in the double. Watching tonight.

 Drinksonthehouse---never looked good in 3 starts last year and hasnt come back any better now.

 La Bella Rosa---might have some talent and is  a tempting longshot stab if you didnt like a few in here. I do, so I will watch and pass tonight.

 Century Behemoth---no shot at all. None.

 Race 2


Mullet Blue Chip  $10 to win
Adore Him            $2 to win
Maracasso           $2 to win

Mullet Blue Chip very well bred late starting, big ticket yearling who they likely want to see a return on at this point. Gillis sends them ready to win their maiden. He looks good in this bunch. Top call. Many in here just dont impress me. I am hoping for 3-1. I think I will get that. Im expecting a big night from Randy, and that is usually what you get from him on Monday. He likely kicks that off here.

Adore Him  has not been stellar to this point to say the least. But, these types sometimes just click in, and this is a pretty soft bunch. No future bearcats in this bunch. If he happens to get away okay and gets a soft enough trip, he is plausible. Using him in a minor way on the chance my top choice is NFG. 

Maracasso is 0 for 13 and counting. He gets is 2nd start of the year and draws better this time. He doesnt finish like a good horse, but he is a hunch play. J Mac has shown a history of burying these types and shooting through a hole when others come back to the field. That could happen here. Price will make it a stab at that.

 Play Against:

Antar Phil the likely fave, he has serious gait issues and that hurts his chances, unless he has changed from last year. He ran in qualifier 1, so, I will go with that he is still suspect unless I see otherwise.

The rest:

 R U Machin Me---first time starter who was well back of the top 2 likely faves who are in this race. He will have to be seen. 

 Machme to the Moon---goes first time away from Gangell, for whom he was no good anyway where he couldnt even make the ticket in a Flamboro maiden. Pass.

 Spoil Sport---will certainly take some action as a 3rd time Larocque starter with Fillion back aboard based on his finish last time after he ran. No thanks. 

 Ace of Clubs---0 for 14 lifetime coming in from Rideau from the 8 hole. Pass .

Let Em Bounce---worse than even the ones I hated in this one. He looks to be into the 200-1 range and would be close to that even if he was in to go at Clinton next Sunday, which is where he is likely heading.

 Jet Black Cadillac. 0 for 19 coming into this from the 10 hole. 0 for 20 going out on his way to Grand River next week for the start of the meet there. I will book his action then.


 Race 3


Ramas Last Son       $10 to win
Doncango                  $4 to win
Justasmalltowngirl    $8 to show

Ramas Last Son drops in class and he wasnt far off with much better last time. He isnt always as good on the track as he appears on the program, so he has to be seen parading and warming up. If he is alright, this is a very good spot for him.Look at the names of the winners in his last 6. Any one of those is 1-5 in this race.

Doncango is as erratic as most Ben B trotters, which means he could step up tonight if he has righted the ship. If the rain they say is coming comes, note that he doesnt appear to like an off track. If it doesnt, he has a big shot and Id use him. In a minor way.

Cantabs Fortune would be a lot more dangerous if she had drawn well. That being said, Zeron is the type you have to respect and he wins with many trotters from the 10 hole, most of them from his own stable. Usable, but I dont see her tonight unless the top 2 I played are complete flops.

 Play Against:

Strong Hope won last time with what can only be described as an awful bunch by gaining control and getting a 3rd quarter so soft he couldnt help but beat them. That isnt likely tonight, and his short price tonight makes me say bring on your action. I will take it.

The rest:

 Fork---goes Ben B to Cass, and I cant see that going well. Unless he shows me otherwise, he is likely a runner.

 Our Mojo---lied down last time on the lead and while he drops in class, he was outclassed then. Dangerous with these types, but I will avoid him. He is 3 for 35 and mostly beats very soft ones in the dead of winter.

 Dreamfair Bogart---made multiple breaks at the start last time and recovered for 2nd, but J Mac ditches him for the 2. He is moving up without being competitive in a relative way. No thanks.

 Santo Domingo---the classic underperformer. He wins the odd one. He does that tonight, it wont be me cashing. You likely wont either if you let him burn you.

 Justasmalltowngirl---was pretty good last time, following a somewhat classy horse all the way and sticking with him to the wire. If there is a longshot upsetter in this pack, she is it. More likely on the ticket but not getting her picture taken. 

 Burnin Money---cant live with him, can live without him. Just have a hard time liking a horse who gets bet and sometimes shows up, most times does not. Toss for me tonight.


 Race 4


Shoot N C  $6 to win

Shoot N C Was well bet the first few times on this circuit and didnt live up to that hype. Most of us have been around long enough to see those types score when they appear to have shown a bad hand to you. This is just that type of race, with suspect faves and weak other options, of which he also appears to be one. He was unraced until this spring, so issues must be present. For the big price tonight he is worth a shot. Im not confident, but risk/reward factors are in play here.

Wildcat Lightning is the obvious play here, and will be relatively short on the board. He is well bred, and has the best form, but of course that is relative to the horrible form of most. I will leave him alone both ways. I think he is sucker money, but he could win by attrition. He likely doesnt. He was inside a horrific heavy chalk last time who was going sideways and still couldnt outpace him. He looks like the type that might be 2nd and 3rd many more times before he lucks into a win and is relegated to condition claimers after that.

Mach the Kasbah Goes 2nd time Moreau, and has the fast line. He gave it up late last time, but the bettors likely figure he is better this time, and he just might be. I will watch him and his low price again.

 Play Against:


The rest:

 Ballybunion---finally gets a good post to work with, and although he is 5 time non performer, he has shown speed and faces a bunch who find ways to lose. Must use in the exotics. He could wake up anytime.

 Focus Power---does not appear to be a WEG horse to me and seems about 2 seconds slower than whoever the winner of this race is.

 Sports Cologne---carries a terrible trainer, and he was 0 for 10 last year. He comes back and doesnt look any better now. He has to be seen. Might be a good KD maiden when that time arrives.

 Big Red Tractor---picks up Luke as he switches for Rideau maidens that he couldnt beat to WEG maidens that he cant beat.  Another who has to be seen. Not sure where he fits until I do. 

 Twin B Sportsman---seems to be edging his way towards being a player with these, but tonight is just another night where he has to show more than he has. Nobody has a lower winning percentage than Roger. Pass and watch again. Hopefully CC hops back on when he is ready to score. Not tonight.

 Absolutly Official---ships up for Young from Pompano off a month off and is highly unlikely to do much other than get back on track and see if he is worth racing harder next time. 

 New Miracle---would need one. 
 Race 5


Adversity  $10 to win,place

Adversity My best win bet of the night, simply coasted to his two wins, as he has been sorted out by Moreau and Fillion has a proper read on how to drive him. These are tougher for sure, but he is better than all of them at this point, and only Muscle Baby Doll might end up better than him down the road. I think there is more in the tank, and he is the best trotter Moreau has right now. Cant see him going down. I dont see any in here that look currently like a Whiskey Tax or Buddy Hally, both of whom he crushed last time...with ease.

Muscle Baby Doll is classy and blew away a soft bunch last time by just using her speed and class to dispatch them. Two of those were Musical Spell and Theresademoninme, the 2nd and 3rd place finishers, who are pretty ratty and both were nowhere this week in the next engagement. I think she is not ready for the likes of Adversity tonight, and is out for a trip and to stay sharp. Bigger fish to fry. 2nd best tonight in my view, and Im not even sold she is the bottom of the exactor ticket.

 Play Against:

Muscle Baby Doll reasons given above.

 Bags For All---raced great last week, but did not look good on the track doing it. No play for me this week,  and I will take her action. Tough bunch for her even when she is 100%. Cirasoulas stock lately has not been as good as in the winter.

The rest:

 P L Hercules---got wiped out last time and now needs yet another race to see if he is back in form, for when he is, he is a serious horse. Waiting, and watching tonight. 

 Ramzan---might be the most erratic horse I have seen since Neros Jay came to this circuit more than 25 years ago. Even Freud wouldnt be able to treat this lunatic. He could be a no starter, or he could win by 5. I just avoid him now. He is unplayable except as a pick 4 toss on if you dont like a winner . Tonight, I do. Pass on him.

 Wild And Crazy Guy---if any horse is likely to pick up the pieces of an explosion of the  top 2 logical ones, its this guy. He does the right types of things to win a race like this. Id use him in a minor ticket for the win 4.

 Her Name is Lola---takes a substantial class drop, and Jackie Mo does well with her. She is another headcase, but she was super sharp a month ago and she isnt far off that now. I prefer others, but she is plausible. Another minor win4 ticket candidate. 

 Windsun Revenge ---capitalized last time when Etruscan
 blew up and Jcs Jake was overbet and hung. These are tougher and more reliable ones. Not tonight for him. The time to cash was last week. 

Jcs Jake---goes hot and cold. Right now, he is back to cold. post 9 and the deepness of this field mean he is a  no play for me tonight. He is so erratic though, he could turn back on that dime. I wouldnt take his action. 

Etruscan  Hanover---noted on this circuit for what he talented as he is erratic. Even a good Etruscan tonight is in tough against some of these. Triactor factor if he behaves and is driven to compete. That is suspect in my view.


Race 6


Sanattle Slew  $2 to win

Sanattle Slew has upset possibilies. He faced two tough customers last time who would not be entered for this tag. His racelinelast time was good enough to be in the mix with these, and he raced tough the time before to take down a sharp 2nd place horse. He is a longshot, but he isnt impossible. 

 Play Against:

I Scoot Sam looked terrible last time and now has been off 3 weeks. Im sure some fine tuning and vet work has been done since then, but he already looked bad the night Adams warmed him up for his one start with him and he had to weave through traffic that night, as is his norm, to get up for 2nd. He then lost him and he wasnt good that night either. I cant see him tonight. I will take his action. Soft and spotty bunch, and he is one of them currently. 

The rest:

 Caliber Seelster---has never shown the type of speed needed tonight and his form isnt fantastic anyway. Total pass.Sandburg Hanover whipped him last time and he wouldnt get a sniff in a straight 8 at this track.

 Recharge ---has enough talent when fit and sound to be dangerous with these. That doesnt appear to be currently. I would think he is about 2 starts from going out the barn door to a new home from Osullivans barn. He owns him. No performance, no pay.

 Dgs Justlikethat---spit the bit on the last turn last time and generally does not finish well when used early. Which is the only style that works for him. He is hard to like currently at this level. I am watching for a turnaround. I dont see that as tonight. 

 Crafty Master---they dont come much lamer than him, and last time he was even worse than usual. I cant use him, but I respect what Bill Robinson can do enough to not take any action on him. 

 Keystone Dalton---appears in deep on this circuit for even 15, let alone 25 or 30. Have to see something that changes my mind on that. So far, not. 139-1 last time and that was an underlay.

 Reasonable Force---rarely holds form and his form isnt that good anyway. He doesnt look dangerous for the ticket, let alone the win, in this group. Back down at the bottom condition class, he has longshot possibilities.

Major Starlight---ships back here after getting parked to the half in 58 at Northville and having trouble clearing. He likely would be distanced if he tried that tactic here. I want to see where he fits on this circuit. Tonight, this isnt it. 

Cluster Hanover has always had trouble at this track and post 10 goes directly against his best style. I am watching him. He will go bombs away on this circuit at some point. Not tonight in my view. He is 3 weeks away off a vet scratch. 


Race 7


Whiskey Tax  $8 to win
Buddy Hally   $6 to win
$4 exa pw 4,7 with 3,4,5,7
$2 exa pw 4,7 with 6,8,9

Whiskey Tax  Raced solid first out of the box and only was overtaken by what appears to be a fast improving serious horse. I generally wont play a horse with a non driver, but Durand is okay on one like this, and the price will be right. He is no cinch, but he is value, in my eyes. Id prefer Randy in this spot, and as he doesnt have a drive, maybe he will be hired at post time. 

Buddy Hally   Almost took down my top choice last time, and he could do it again. Another price option, if you dont like the chalk in here, which I dont tonight.

 Play Against:

West Side Story  I watched his qualifier. He looked about the same to me. Even if he is steady, the goal will be to make sure he finishes trotting tonight, and keep him clear and out of trouble. Cant see him winning and the short price has me on board to take on all comers. Possibly 2nd, but Im not sold on that tonight either.

The rest:

 Zeus Lightning---class animal who cant be tossed. Others look better tonight for the exactor.  Fillion went elsewhere.

 Rockys First---needs a race and a class drop when he is fit. 

 Thankyoukessel---got around last time after a long layoff. He is capable enough to slide up late for 2nd or 3rd. 

 Cold Certified---likes to control it and likely will tonight. He could be around for the ticket if he gets enough of a breather. Not for the win. 

 MMs Lucky Boy---very trip dependent and spotty week to week. Have to use him on the bottom of the exactor because of that.

 Holdontighttoyourdreams---another bad post. A lot would have to go right for him to make the ticket. but it could. Minor exactor shot. Likely needs to drop and pop again, and this isnt that spot.

 Murmur Hanover---2nd start Ben B, and he drops. He is on the radar for the future and that angle will cash in at some point. Too many in the way tonight.

Race 8


Moonwriter           $10 to win, show
Lets Wait And See  $4 to win

Team Captain          $4 to win

Moonwriter  Gets my top call. He was a high end colt last year, and certainly as good as any of these. He has come back ready to fire, qualifying in 53.3 behind two very proven high end colts from last year. I like the odds I will get with others taking big money and I dont care for them that much to begin with. He is worth a longshot play. He is legit.

Let Wait And See   Appeared very live last time, but had to move and gun at the leader in a very fast 3rd quarter and while he kept pacing to the wire, he ended up with the short end of the stick. He isnt consistent, but the price will be huge tonight. I will use him and others in the pick 4, and this is my key race to get the price where others look very chalky. He is one of many who could blow it up in this one.

 Play Against:

The Wayfaring Man  he is very fast, and at times looks high end. But, he doesnt finish well and finds wasy to let others by. He lacks fight, like many  Dragon Agains. Very short price tonight, and I will go against him.

American Rock  he warmed up fantastic the night he won the final of the Youthful, parked a long way to make the lead and then fending off all comers. That seems to be where he peaked and now isnt quite as good. I think maybe he has hit the wall. 

Amora Beach  has never impressed me. He is fast enough, sound enough, and goes enough, but he doesnt win when others do their part. I see more of the same tonight. He beat a very suspect P L Idaho when he was no good and there wasnt anything else. Last time, another tag along for 3rd money. Likely the same here. He will grind out 250k this year, but burn lots of chalk doing it.

The rest:

 Velocity Headlight---goes about 52 every week. Some of these go 50. Hence, his problem.

His Boy Elroy---not with these

 Team Captain--paced better last time on the deep track. He might get that again tonight. He is much better under those circumstances and his talent is as good as all of them if he isnt dog lame or hurting like a hard track would do to him. Using in the late pick 4 if the track comes up sloppy.

Twilite Zone---has improved off the claim. These are so far out of his reach, I dont even know where I would begin.

Twin B Scandal---might have been okay for a piece from the inside. From here, not likely. One to watch for the Sire Stakes,which is what I will be doing.

Race 9


$6 exa pw 9 with 2,3,6 

Split The House With Windsong Lightning out, this appears to be a non race. Single bridge play for me in the pick 4, and otherwise, pass the race. He is a high end colt facing many who will live in this class until at least Labor Day.

 Play Against:

None   I wont bother

The rest:

 Fighttothefinish---would be a monster longshot even in a straight maiden.  Rock and hard place for him at this point after that win at Flamboro last time.When the Grassroots start, we will see how he stacks up.

 Shippen Out---1 for 29, not sound, but tries hard. Exactor possibility. Watch him post parade.

 Mach Code---another who had to exit maidens without beating them at this track. I liked what I saw then, Im  watching to see if there is a sweet spot to cash in on that. Not tonight. Exactor factor if others bomb.

 Twin B TK---looked horrid breaking his maiden and well whipped by the cinch in this race last time. Sucker exactor play. Id go against him for that. 

 Half A Billion--blew up the tote board once last year in a Grassroots. His trainer is cagey and competent, and he brings them to this track ready. Top threat for 2nd. 

 Midnight Play---1 for 19 coming in. 1 for 20 going out.Trainer change hasnt helped and Saftic took a 15-1 shot over him. Nuff said.

 Sports Image-- Stole his maiden win with a very soft 3rd quarter and has done zip with these since. No shot. Not sure he ever wins his way out of this class at this track. 

Fashion Maven--- shared the win last time when the leader was put to sleep and didnt see him coming.He moves up now, draws bad, but gets Johnson and has great breeding. Watching tonight to see what he is all about. Play against for the bottom of the exactor.

Race 10


Riveting Rosie  $6 to win
Exemplar          $4 to win
Body Balance   $10 to show

Riveting Rosie Gets top call from me. She has tackled the big cats the last two, and even though she didn't have the fitness level they have yet, she went a long way with them both time, last time taking another 2 seconds off the previous race, which took 2 off the qualifier. She now needs one more second to be in the win mix, which I think she is in here for a price. She was a class mare at 2, and came around at the end of last year to show that was no fluke. If she can get to the lead and let one go for the trip, she can score at decent odds. I will take that risk.

Exemplar is really hit and miss, and last time was miss. The time before was hit. I have gone over before his breeding connections, and that talent is always there.  A likely good price makes him a viable play tonight, even though he is capable of throwing in a huge clunker. Feast or famine with him.

Body Balance isnt my top choice tonight, and I wont play him. But he wouldnt shock me. He has really stepped up, and based on who his mother is, that isnt a surprise. I would think you have to use him in the pick 4, maybe on a more minor ticket. There is no shame in getting picked off by a world Champion like Daylon Magician.

 Play Against:

Dorsay Fillion has shown some interest in driving for this trainer, but picks against her tonight even though she was fantastic last time. I am not sold she is as tough when she doesnt get the soft trip. That isnt likely there tonight. Not much on the line for her tonight other than to stay fit for a better payday.

The rest:

 Doubledown Gass---not tonight all the way, but soon. He is coming to hand.

 Charlie Is A Joker--2  for 29 and has no grit when it counts. Not a soft bunch for him anyway. 4-1 ML is a bigger joke than Charlie is.

 Northern Victory--cant be ignored as he has talent and seems to pop up every now and then when things go his way. Id use him on the pick 4 ticket. He is always dangerous.

 Bax Of Life--always around, rarely wins when the better ones are involved. More of the same tonight. 

 Prestidigitator---shows up after 3 years off and 4 qualifiers. They waited this long, they will bring him along slow. Not tonight. Back of the bus, and hope for 4th.
Race 11


Lancaster Park  $6 to win, 10 place, show
Mac Raider        $6 to place,10 to show

Lancaster Park Although O'Sullivan has a rep for having them ready to go at first asking off the shelf, this guy has appeared to need a few. He was solid in his qualifier, left out last time, sat, got moderately trapped, and paced on at the end. That was, for the most part, a second qualifier for a small cheque. He tested the best last year, and while I don't think he is up to those, or even Gold types in the OSS, he is solid with this bunch, and now hopefully tight. Top call, but suspect still in terms of top fitness. He does appear smoother than last year and has that one crazy brush, which might go farther if he has matured into it. Might.

Mac Raider Goes out for Team McNair tonight. He has progressed and does just about everything right. His gait speed and ability to rate is a huge plus as he moves up and meets others on most nights who will be as good or better than him. He will hit the wall on this circuit at some point, but tonight is certainly in the mix. He stuck like glue last time to two very nice Stakes prospects, which shows you that he is legit as he moves up.
He is a must use on your pick4, but I think for the win, his price is too short tonight. Call for 2nd, and play him that way.

 Play Against:

Librado Hanover got  wiped out last time by a newcomer who made a speed break. However, he wasn't doing much on his own at the time. I suspect he gets a pass from the bettors this time for that, as he should, but that he wouldn't have gone forward anyway if he had gotten a clean trip. I will go against him tonight and watch to see what he is made of. I much prefer my top 2 picks over him in here. He will have to prove me wrong. I had him when he broke his maiden, but he might hit the wall with these types.

The rest:

 Regal Sight--- 3 starts into the season, has never won on this circuit. overmatched tonight

 York Seelster---still has roughness of gait issues, 4 qua's, Saftic picked elsewhere. test drive trip tonight

 Speed Racer---blew up at WEG race speed. Not likely good enough for here

 Jeb--bit player tonight. Watching for Grassroots score later

 Ticket To Roll---now that the serious colts are out, he is overmatched for the ticket.

The Fire Within---another bad post, no grit anyway, bit player at best. possible on the bottom of the super.

 Pier Ho Temptation---terrible post, doesn't look like he can do on this circuit even from a good post. Total pass.


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