Thursday, May 14, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 14, 2015

Overall Bets: $125
Best Win Bet: $6 win on Miss Sangria in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $4 win on Casimir LowGear in the 6th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Miss Sangria in the 7th
Best Show Bet: $10 show on Wildcat Lightning in the 10th
Best exactor bet: Race 8 $4 , 5-1 ($4)
Longshot exactor bet:  Race 2 $1 exa pw 2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5 ($12)
Best Exotic Bet: Race 6 $1 pk 3 (1,2,3,5,8 with 3 with 1,5) ($10)
Worst Bet: Piscean to win. $6 against.
Most likely high superfecta payout: Race 2

Race 1

Magical Gem $10 to win

No exotics

Magical Gem--Seems to be getting better every time. Post 9 isn't a big deal when you can leave and many take back or hold on leaving just trying to not break stride. Getting picked off by a stakes type like Tyrone Zoey last time doesn't phase me at all. She beat the balance. None of this balance is any better than those. Fillion knows how to win.

Sassy Dreamer--Went on a front end mission last time and tried to wire them. Didn't work, and even the 3rd horse was getting to her. Her short price dictates to me tonight to go elsewhere. 

xxxx-- I don't see a 3rd horse that threatens the top 2. Many have the talent to be good at some point. Most of those have issues that are being ironed out still. Hard to put money in their direction. I wont. 
Play Against: 
Lady Ping Is always around, and looks good doing it. Winning seems to be an issue, and maybe winning is not really being tried for at this point. I will wait for a week when the price floats up and maybe she can take them all down. Short price tonight, play against again. 

Race 2

Play Ground $2 to win
Delerium $2 to win

Exactor: $1 exa pw 2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5 ($15)

Play Ground--Toughest race of the night for me to sort out. Can't say I like my top two choices that much. But I don't care at all for the likely top 3 betting options, not at the odds they likely bring tonight. I went with the only two I see at all viable from the balance. CC has a way of getting the most of these. I will go here and hope for the best. Not confident in this one though. For sure.

Delerium--At one time, she looked like a pretty good prospect to be a condition mare. She simply hasn't panned out. She does have enough talent to put it all together one night, and JJ is a longshot specialist with these types. She wouldn't shock me, but I'm not holding my breath waiting for her win picture tonight. Longshot chance if the top ones fail.

A Lot of Sense- Would have been a top play for me if I thought she was reliable enough. But, I suspect off her win, the price will not be favorable and she isn't reliable enough to take a shot with. Pass. 
Play Against: 
Thrill Chaser has scored in her last and just missed in the previous. She is a total trip mare and that luck is bound to go against her. Short price tonight, I will go against her. She is sharp though. No doubt.

Knee Slapper is talented enough. She is also pretty lame. Short price on her, I will also go against her. Too many in here to take down. She is more likely on the ticket, but not the winner. 

Frosty Delight is going to win one at some point. Could that be tonight? I suppose it could. But, she will likely be short odds tonight off her last, and I will take my chances. I thought about using her in my top 3, but she just doesn't wow me enough to play that short price. I am keeping my eye on her. When the bomb price comes, and there is a big chalk fave I think can be beat, I will be a passenger on her train that night. 

Race 3

No exotics

xxxx--I could not find one I like in here. Even at long odds, they are hard to justify. So, I will not. I will just give you one at short odds I feel is worth playing against.

Play Against: 
Piscean Race good last time. But, is still a very green maiden and is likely hammered tonight. I think playing against him is the smart move. We have seen many times, even just this week, how risky young trotters are that show you something, then remind you that they don't have a clue what they are doing out there yet and start running like a T bred. The rail is no picnic for any green trotter. Beware. If you play her, better you than me.

Race 4

Dancingatnight $10 to win

No exotics

Dancingatnight--Followed along well last time and was outpaced by two who had an experience and conditioning edge on her. She doesn't meet those two here, and the ones she does with short odds don't look any better overall than her. I will take the price and go all in on her.

Mesmerize Blue Chip--Certainly has a shot. But the odds might be a shade low, and maybe she isn't being raced all out tonight for the win. She wouldn't shock me if she won it. Pass and watch tonight.

Tailwind Hanover--The talent is there. No doubt. But, she runs in so bad most of the way, and terribly in the stretch, that she would need to clear down the backside, open up enough so she could go wide into the turn and have enough room to run in down the lane while she opens up. She could get that trip tonight,  so I wont play against her. But, you can't rely on that betting on her at the still low price she brings. Pass. 
Play Against: 
Got Some Spark Certainly qualified well, but she is a first time starter, and they rarely win. She also doesn't show the overall speed of many of these. Not yet. I expect to see Randy bury her and have her finish strong, for 3rd or 4th. For the win, I don't see her beating all the possible ones in here who can. Who that is I'm not certain, but I doubt its her.


Artic Tale $4 to win
New Favorite $4 to win
Bullet  $2 to win
No exotics

Arctic Tale--obviously putting him on top is risky. He has serious issues and he could easily be running and distanced at the start. That is the risk you take with him. He could also be sorted out enough to blow them away. First start off the claim for Johnson,  and maybe the 2nd qualifier he figured him out. Maybe not.Your call. Mine..for the call. 

New Favorite--can leave a bit and grinds. The type that might get the 2 hole trip and pick up the pieces on a night like this. Needs a lot to go his way, but the price will be there and J. Mac finds trips and seems with these types all the time. Byron isn't likely to bring a 6 claimer to WEG unless he thinks he can do. We shall see.

Bullet--I rate him 3rd only on the trainer change from Montini to Auciello. It is my view that Montini is terrible with trotters, so, any change of any kind brings hope. Don't like the horse much, but I will give him a shot with this angle. Very minor, longshot chance. He has handled these before, but he is spotty at best. Hoping for some kind of miracle change here. 
Play Against: 
Hava Kadabra is the logical horse. Two wins out of his last three, with trainer/driver Luc in the bike. He gets the rail, and logically, he is on top at the half and the one to chase down. He does have competition for the lead from the 10 horse, and others, and he will have to work for it. My experience with these types is that they don't hold form enough to justify the type of price he brings tonight. At the likely 7-5 or less, I will play against him. Could he go all the way? Sure. But he is more likely not to. 

Race 6

Casimir Low Gear $4 to win
Shipps Expectancy $4 to win

$1 pick 3 (1,2,3,5,8 with 3 with 1,5) $10

Casimir Low Gear--Interference in his last two with these, and he still only got beat 2 lengths at the wire. He won in 53 and a piece on this circuit last year,  and he was a big price that night. I will take my chances on him and the likely big price here also. Many of the "logical ones" in here have swiss cheese holes in them. So does he, but at least I get some odds to take my chances with. 

Shipps Expectancy--Goes first time off the claim for Bowins, a noted sharp trainer/driver/owner who only claims what he knows will make him money. The horse likes the front, we all know that, and he can get it this time from the 2 hole. That is where Bowins will be putting him. With the right kind of trip, he can last with this bad bunch. At a likely 8-1 or higher, I will use him also. 

xxxx-I have no 3rd horse to play in this bunch, although I realize any of these rats could step up. I wouldn't waste my money on any of them.

 Play Against:  
Click Boom. Drops here but he is so inconsistent, mainly due to his issues, which mostly consist of him running in horribly and not having much grit to begin with.  When he trips out and can head the leader the odd time, he wins, but like most Rambaran's, that form is short lived and he reverts back to his sub par ways. With a likely short price coming here, I will pass on him and look elsewhere.

Race 7

Miss Sangria $6 to win
Beach Sunset $2 to win

No exotics

Miss Sangria--Is a maiden no more if she doesn't hook Southwind Ginger last week. So, she arrives here as a mare who should be up at nw2 that gets to race maidens again. Anything close to her last start dominates this bunch. Top call.

Beach Sunset--Wasn't ready to compete in the winter, so she was shut down. Back at it at Flamboro, she qualified okay but Wallace decided to qualifier her one more time at Mohawk and race her here. Her 27.2 second last Q suggests she has come around, and she is the one who likely beats my top choice if she is going down. Wallace will generally not race maidens at WEG if he thinks they need a few starts at the B's. Beware of her. The two in front of her in that last Qua are high end stakes fillies.

xxxx-I have no 3rd horse to play in this bunch. Black Queen is going to win this class one of these days. I can't play her from the 8 hole. She needs a lot to go her way to win, and I don't see it. Betty and The Jets is a Jereme's Jet from the 10 hole who is 0 for 10 and will bring a somewhat short price. Pass on both, but I wouldn't play against them either.

 Play Against:  
Abbijade Hanover. I don't like her breeding, and her qualifiers don't impress me. Maybe she will develop. At this point, she isn't good enough to justify a shorter price. 

Race  8

Unabating $8 to win

Exactor: $4 , 5-1

Unabating--With this very soft bunch, his back class and freshness, added to the combo of Trevor and Puddy, who don't race to get back in shape, indicates that his likely price justifies putting him on top ahead of the likely chalk who will draw heavy action. He hasn't seen a soft bunch like this in a very long time. He is here to score, and then jam, take two in a row and go to another barn.

Rival Seelster--WIs the obvious play on the Moreau angle. Claimed for 10 off House, the horse showed some talent at 2 in Sire Stakes, but bombed out last year. Has come around this year and is currently very sharp. Add the rail, Moreau, Fillion and a soft field, and I think he is right there, but 2nd best tonight to the top choice.

xxxx-I have no 3rd horse to play in this bunch. Joseph Girard is good enough when he is sound. Who knows if that is tonight? Watch him post parade and score out fast, and make your call. I will pass on him tonight. The rest don't look competitive to me. Bruce The Brave will have to be seen on the trainer change. Sixth Man has blown up the tote board before with Renaud at the controls, and taking the highest tag and the 10 hole is a warning sign, but I wont touch him tonight. He is dangerous however.

 Play Against:  
Blush And Crush Is a major trip horse on her best day, and the 9 hole suggests she is tripping out tonight to hopefully take down 3rd or 4th, but not the win. 

Race  9

Mass Rail $4 to win
Stay In Touch $4 to win

Flexceptional $2 to win

Exactor: $1 box 3-5-6 ($6)

Mass Rail--Gets my top call. Hard to argue with Trevor driving his own horse and Moreau fine tuning her. Not that she needed much more anyway. She trottet in 55 last time to be a solid 2nd and has been knocking on the door lately as it was. It wont be easy. There are some good ones here. Slight top choice over the other two. She is no cinch.

Stay In Touch--Qualified twice, the 2nd much better than the first. She was behind a superstar trotting filly and one who showed big time ability at times last year. She looks ready to go and has stakes credentials herself. Could have been my top choice. Top choice has racing edge on her this year. She could turn the tables anyway.

Flexceptional-Gets one more try from me, at the big odds she will finally bring tonight. She has had bad trips, suspect drives and she is her own worst enemy at times. That doesn't mean she isn't going to step up one night and beat them all. Tyrell is too good. He wouldn't keep bringing her back if he thought she needed to race at a B track.

 Play Against:  
Tymal Signature . Waters get much deeper tonight. She simply doesn't strike me as one who can go with these high end ones. Another week, when she draws a softer bunch, or when the Sire Stakes start up, she is more viable.

Race  10

Wildcat Lightning $4 to win
Grantland $4 to win
Opening Night Gem $2 to win

Exactor: none

Wildcat Lightning--Looks ready to graduate. His racelines are solid, he has some breeding and he is likely sent out to the top or near it. He looks like he can go a bit more than some of the top ones in here, although he might not be the best overall prospect in the long run.

Grantland--Took several seconds off his first qualifier following a Breeders Crown type horse. He takes 2 more seconds off, he is right there. Chancy to see what he can do under the lights. For the price, I will take that chance.
Opening Night Gem-Ships in from Northfield. Generally not a good angle for this circuit. But, he has gone 56 over that track, shown he can win, and has the breeding to suggest there is more there. Iffy chance.

 Play Against:  
Draft Seelster . Sure he went in 54 in his qualifier. But he had already showed that kind of speed last year,  then got beat in 56 in a maiden. 9 hole tonight, and the price will be somewhat short. I'd wait a start and see what he shows. 

Scary Harry. Yes he went fast at Balmoral. Cheap speed does that at Balmoral. The majority come here and don't get  it done when they face more overall challengers than the majority at Balmoral who are phony claimers and can't do much.

Race  11

Faithful Friend $2 to win
Mo Molly Blue Chip $2 to win
Southwind Ginger $2 to win

Exactor: none

Faithful Friend--Goes second time for trainer driver Zeron, and looked good doing it the first time. Zeron usually test drives these types once before he races to win. She has a decent shot tonight, but so do others. Lukewarm top call.

Mo Molly Blue Chip--Went a good trip against the pace odds last time and has enough upside to think she can be there if things work out. Another with a shot, but just a shot. 

Southwind Ginger-Hard to go against Adams right now. She steps up a level, and there are some returning stakes bearcats in here to keep her price in the playable range. She isn't my favorite, but respect must be given to the octane she has pumped in the tank.

 Play Against:  


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