Friday, May 15, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 15, 2015

Overall Bets: $186
 Best Win Bet: $8 win on Meadow Seelster in the 1st
Best Longshot Win Bet: $8 win on Lights Go Out in the 6th
Best Place Bet: $10 place on Lights Go Out in the 6th
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Sassafras in the 7th
Best exactor bet: Race 1 $2 ,  box 6,7,9 ($12)
Longshot exactor bet:  Race 12 $2 , wheel  3 with 2,6,8,10 ($8)
Best Exotic Bet: : Race 5 $1 pk 3 (1,4,5,7 with 2,3,7 with 5,6) ($24)
Worst Bet: Macho Mass to win. $10
Most likely high superfecta payout: Race 5

Race 1

Meadow Seelster $8 to win
One Direction $2 to win

exotics $2 ,  box 6,7,9 ($12)

Meadow Seelster--Went a long way on the lead to a proven stakes horse last time. Fillion sticks with her. He does very well with Bill Budd horses, as evidenced by their very high ROI together. She can outlast this bunch if she isn't pushed too hard to get the lead. The move in from post 8 and 9 to post 6 really helps her cause. There isn't much pure speed in this race to bother her anyway. She won 4 of 12 last year, most if not all of those were on the engine. She was fighting and pulling on Fillion last time and maybe Budd tinkers and tries to make her slightly more rateable. As it was, she trotted home okay and finished well to a filly she can't yet compete with. Top call.

One Direction--Showed incredible flashes of ability last year at times, but was just as inconsistent and erratic. He finally blew up in the Autumn final, and Jones brings him back here off two qualifiers, where it appears he is trying to teach him to be a racehorse. I think that education continues tonight and he is one start at least away from the win photo. If he is ready to go, he could take down my top choice. I will use both in the double, but I prefer my top one better.

Noble Power- has a lot of upside and raced solid to be 2nd best to a likely Gold Stakes horse. No shame in that. He might still be very green though, and others have a big edge on him in that department. I will pass on him, but he is a threat nonetheless.
Play Against: 
Macho Mass
came right out of the box and scored a solid win. But he still has an inferior driver holding the lines tonight, and he beat two who are less than impressive types to this point. Play against him for me. 
Tyrone Zoey 
was very impressive first time out, and looks to have a solid future against medium Sire Stakes types. Not sure she can step up right away against others who are ahead of her on the class and speed scale. The two behind her in her win are not impressive types at all. She was full value for the win, but that value is suspect against many of these. Play against tonight until she shows a bit more.

 Race 2

 All Chocolate $6 to win

No exotics

All Chocolate--Looks as good as any in here and probably brings a higher price. She has handled these before, and although winless this season, won 7 times last year and was 17 out of 42 in the top 2. She has a nose for the line and if tripped out right, can take this very suspect and hard to like bunch. She might end up first up after a soft half, and that is a concern. Still, top call. I would want 9-2 at least. I think I can get that.

Kikiskissincousin--is obviously dangerous, and even with the likely short price from the rail, which she can use well to be up close or on the engine, you have to use her in the double or pick 3. At least I do. She isn't my preference, as she tends to hang in the lane for various reasons. So do many of these. She has company there. There is no current bearcat in this bunch stealing money like One Last Bono or Roll Tide Roll did in the winter. She is in the mix. McNair is red hot and has done well with her before.

Exhiliratedis the opposite of my top 2. She probably has more overall talent than them, but has always found it hard to win and needs just about a perfect trip to do that. I remember last summer she got just such a trip and scooted up the plyons when everyone drifted out to score. I can't leave her off either, but for the straight win, she is a bad play.

Larjon Laurahas not been as good for Perriera as she was for McMaster. But, Jody is good at winning with these types, she gets a much better post to put her up close and she drops a shade. I'd have to use her in the exotics as well. Tough race to pick one. Whoever trips out and feels best on this night should get it done. We never know who that is until they hit the wire.

Play Against: 

 Race 3

 Top Dollar $4 to win
Chiller Ice  $4 to win

No exotics

Top Dollar- is a risky proposition for sure. If right, and good tonight, he has as good a chance as any. J. Mac is the type that wins with these a lot. Since I am suspicious of the 7 horse with her Pompano lines and the month between races, and her capable, but less than tactical driver, I will take a chance on this guy to get his act together and show us what he hinted at when he broke his maiden like they weren't even there.

Chiller Ice-is the other price option I like. Not thrilled that Trevor goes elsewhere, but Saftic is capable enough. He is just the kind of erratic trotter that is learning the game and will graduate to be whatever he is destined to be at some point. Considering this field and his improving overall form, I will play him tonight against this weaker bunch.

Pointe of Inquiry-  as mentioned above. Risky proposition here. I wouldn't play against her directly, but the price is likely to be short enough that I wouldn't put any money on her either. I will exclude her from my picks 3s. She has upside, and could score. I just don't think that happens. 

Play Against: 

looked okay for a while when scoring against Grassroots fillies last year, but was not wearing well and blew up in the final. She shows back up in the hands of Jones, who has shown a penchant lately for putting horses on the track with issues and not sorting them out first. He did that a bit last year also. Beware. I will play against her and her likely short price tonight, watch and see where she is at. If she was 100% fit, which is likely considering 2 qualifiers, and sound, which is in question, she would probably steamroll this bunch. The trainer change concerns me. Your call.

 Duh Bubbies

certainly has raced well since coming to this circuit. However, his breeding is very suspect to go forward and his form is tailing off slightly as he is asked to go faster. Post 10 really hurts him when there are others in here who can leave enough that he wont get there. I suspect Trevor knows that and wont gun out, which means he has to park. Don't see it. Fillion took Budd's horse from the rail, which makes sense, but her form isn't that great, further cementing my opinion that this guy is a solid play against tonight. 

 Race 4

 Capelo                 $4 to win
Twin B Wrangler  $2 to win

No exotics

Capelo- is an American Ideal who gets first time lasix after bombing out horribly for Auciello. Where have I seen that movie before? Anyway, if lasix works, he has a shot. If it doesn't, he is way up the track. Worked well for Mr Dennis, and Donau and Curator also came alive for a while under the same circumstances.  Longshot play. He has shown he can sit back and pick up the pieces when he is good. He will have lots of crazy speed to chase in this one. If he is okay. Big if.

Twin B Wrangler- takes a slight drop here, which is needed because he was over his head for 20. He can leave like a bat out of hell and only seems good when he is free wheeling. I wouldn't be surprised to see Trevor attempt to roll him here. The problem with that is Crown Isle will employ the same tactic. And he draws inside this one. If Crown Isle is no good tonight, that totally changes this guys chances. I will use him on the off chance he gets his way.

Intended Style-   is another who likes to wing it. He was able to employ that strategy to a very dominant win last time from the 9 hole. That doesn't always work, week to week, with these types. He steps up a level, and that equalizes things for me in here. I will pass on him, and likely play against him by not using him in the pick 4. Risky, but creates value if I am correct. He stole the second quarter last time, and it is highly unlikely a repeat of that happens here with the type of speed inside him.

Play Against: 
  Crown Isle

I would certainly be willing to give him a pass for last time, considering he had his legs cut out from under him. But McNair has done very well with him  yet ditches him for an outsider like Woggy Rocks from the 9 hole. That screams to me play against and his short price.  Which is what I will do.

Race 5

 Cal Chips Brother  $8 to winSam Hayes  $6 to win

Exotic: Pick 3 ($1), 1,4,5, 7 with 2,3,7 with 5,6 ($24)

CalChipsBrother-  Obviously, a very risky play. But also a huge price if he can behave and the trip works out. Mayotte pops up every now and then and blows up the tote board. I am gonna take a flyer that this could be the spot. Strictly a price and angle play that the likely top 3 don't get it done, for any number of a varied set of reasons. 

Sam Hayes- much like my top choice, he could pop up, wake up, and blow up the tote board tonight. Or, just blow up. I will take a chance on him too. Since there isn't much confidence to be had in the chalks here, there is reason to at least take the risk on the price side. He has ability, he just doesn't always bring it. It only takes one good night with his kind. 

Lets Leavum-   is always hard to like, in that he brings just short enough a price to hate yourself when playing his sub standard, non trying self. But, he is another who has one good day every so often and catches you by surprise. I will hope for something around 7-1, and that he is the one if the top 2 are no good tonight.

Play Against: 

 Off that qualifier, Mario's relative hot hands and Ben B's very hot barn, I suspect this iffy trotter will get heavy play. He is certainly viable, but also very accident prone. I will play against him and take my chances. 
 Race 6

 Lights Go Out  $8 to win
Farouche Hanover $6 to win

Lights Go Out-  She is generally one I avoid, because of her racing style, her soundness issues and the trouble she finds in races. However, she has shown a bit of life lately down at this level, and she has burned enough chalk players to possibly bring a reasonable price from a slightly better starting spot. Top call, but just slightly.

Farouche Hanover- gets a better starting post this time for the potent and sometimes profitable combo of Nixon and P Mac. She blasted home last time to not gain much of a share but she has 300k plus of back class to make her viable to try and use with my top choice. Very slight 2nd choice to my top call.

xxxxx-   I don't have a 3rd one here. There are possible ones, but none I would play. I will live or die with my top 2.

Play Against:

 Has not shown me anything to suggest she can compete at this level, even from the inside. Forget the 10 hole. Jody could have pulled last time, and the one behind him waited and waited to try and fish him out, but Jody never bought. That should tell you what he thinks of this mare. Menary is good. He simply can't do anything with this one. She should find a cheap claimer. And I think she is close to being in that position. 

  Oceanview Bindi

Takes the drop and looks to pop. Of course she is tempting to put up for at least 3rd.  But she comes with a relatively short price tonight, and she looks plenty beatable in this mix. I go the play against route, but know she could turn around and bite me.

 Race 7

 Sassafras Girl   $10 to win
I Wonder Why    $6 to win

Sassafras Girl-  Gets a much better post tonight, and likely is blasted out for the lead in her 3rd off the shelf. Her racelines aren't bad,  and she did take a Sires Stakes last year at 2 in 1:53 over this track. It's time to produce. I am betting she does that tonight at fairly decent odds.

I Wonder Why- Comes in off the 2 qualifier angle, and certainly she was a class filly last year. The rest probably did her good, and MacIntosh seems to know when enough is enough, and when to fire them back up for the lucrative 3 year old campaign. If my top one doesn't fire , I am betting Condren takes this impressive, but beatable bunch. She is by Ponder, and the majority of those seem to improve greatly from 2 to 3, and nobody knows those better than MacIntosh, who trained him and most of his best ones so far.

Bet On HillHas really come around, slowly and steadily in te last month, after looking horrid at London just before that. I'm not certain she can haul the whole bunch down here, and certainly Trevor stole her last win, but she is in the mix. I wont bet her, but I wouldn't be shocked if she got it done either. I'd use her in the pick 4's if you play that.

Play Against:

Ms Mac N Cheeese
 Strikes me as a filly who was great early, at 2, but might not come back too good at 3. Time will tell. I will play that angle tonight at the likely short odds she will garner. If I'm right, this will likely be the only chance to play against her in that manner before others ditch her for the 3 year olds who are coming on, like my top choice.
A qualifier isn't raced for purse money, so it doesn't mean that much, but not closing much on a Warrawee Qually would be a warning sign to me.

 Race 8

 Cant Stop   $6 to win

Cant Stop-  Fillion tried to send her down the road last time and it almost worked. But she had to go fast to the half and paid the price at the tote board, being inhaled by two pretty nice prospects. She didn't stop though, and that was her 2nd off the shelf, signalling sharpness. Fillion is back aboard and I suspect he leaves and looks for a helmet this time. She can trip out and turn the tables this time.

Warrawee QuallyJust doesn't win, as per her sire's norm on this circuit. However, this is such a soft bunch, she could possibly fall into the kind of trip and luck that gets a rat like this up. I'd use her in a very minor way, but not discount her.

Play Against:


 Race 9



xxxx-  I cant say I like anything in here enough to fork over win money. So I wont. I have two to play against,  and obviously at least one will lose. I think they both do.  I don't know which of the remaining 8 steps up and beat them, but I think one of them does. If I was playing the pick 4, I would be taking all 8 but the two I view as play againsts.

Play Against:

Juanitas Fury
 If she was the filly she ended last year as, then she far outclasses this field. But, Bax seems to have a habit of not bringing them back good from 2 to 3, at least not right away. Her qualifier wasn't wowing, and she could easily be short, hurting, or just not good enough yet. I will play against her and the likely very short price. Its a risky play.

Olympic Son Has a world of talent, and a set of problems to go with it. Namely a poor gait at times and the propensity to run if he doesn't get his own way. His short price tonight tells me to play against him as well.

Race 10


 American In Paris  $8 to win
Beach Gal   $6 to win

American In Paris-  The toughest race and call of the night. Sure, she has disappointed three times now at short odds. But, the first time she missed by a nose and wasn't fit enough to race aggresively. The second time she simply couldn't hold off a very sharp mare, who she meets again tonight. Last time, she got trapped in and came too late. But all three times,  she finished great and she is still very good and has been 2nd 3 times in a row at this very which she dominated last fall. Top call, with the hopes the price goes up a bit here. I think it will. 

Beach Gal- Paced her two last quarters both in under 27 last time. You don't see that often with a horse coming off a long layoff. She is likely to be even a bit tighter tonight, but she must get away a bit closer to take down high end mares like these. Jody is aware of that, and you can expect him in the top 5 early and out and going in some capacity. All of that likely works to my choices favor, having something live to follow. I don't know that she takes down my choice, but she is certainly capable enough. 

Rock N Roll Example- In a major head shaker, J. Mac goes all the way to Miami Valley to drive Waasmula,  finishes a solid 3rd in 50 and a piece, wins two in a row with her in this class,and then ditches her and her good post for this one. She is hard to not include, but I don't like her chances from out in the 9 hole tonight. So, I will list her 3rd  but not bet her.

Play Against:

 As mentioned above, J Mac goes elsewhere, against this razor sharp mare, who is the best she has ever been. I will play against her, only because of his lack of confidence in her, and that I have always hated her anyway. I understand he does that mostly to keep in the good books with Menary, but it still shows a pretty big lack of condidence in her. 

Race 11


Marlee b  $10 to win

Marlee B-  I tried to find one I thought could beat her and her likely very short price. I just couldn't. She has burned chalk before when she drops until she improves her form, but there just isn't anything in here she can't blow by in the lane if she is anywhere in contention. I doubt Trevor lets her get far out of it,  so, I will take the short price on this one.

Empress Deo - Is tempting to play against, but if the top choice somehow fails, she could bring 7-2 and bite me. So, I wont. I will just leave her and take my chances with the single.

xxxx- None of the rest look dangerous enough to threaten my top 2.

Play Against:


 Race 12


Code One Hanover  $8 to win

Exotic $2 , exactor wheel  3 with 2,6,8,10 ($8)

Code One Hanover-  She is worth a shot in a race where many might take big money based on last years performance. Its strictly a price play and she needs many things to go her way tonight. She won the Superfinal last year. She is no slouch herself and has one under her belt. Jack Darling brings them ready to perform and P Mac does well with him as a rule when the circumstances favor him. Good post, proper class,  good form. Top call.

Solar Sister - 2nd best to JK Shesalady is pretty much like being the best in the world after the absolute best. She comes back here tough post, and I will just watch to see where she is at. Looks like a big season in store for her. Tonight, I want to see how she looks.

xxxx- I dont like any of the others, and view most of them as solid play againsts for various reasons, which I will list.

Play Against:

An Angel Shes Not Has certainly improved, but a short price is likely tonight and this is a pretty tough group. I don't see her as good enough to double up on this entire bunch.

Southwind Mischief 

Did not finish the year off well at all, and in fact looked spent. I'm not certain she is top shelf after she was used so hard to make money like she was..which she did. I will take my chances playing against her tonight. She could prove me wrong and it could backfire. 

Your My Secret

Has hit the wall in my view, and with the tougher mares out now, she will have a hard time winning her way out of this class. Not sure where she goes from here,  but this doesn't look like a good spot. She didn't look like she wanted to be out there last time, even when McNair got to slashing her.

Diana Santana

Had trouble enough passing mares that can't handle the best of this bunch, let alone stakes bearcats who she wont ever likely see for a long time when they make their way to the stakes engagements.

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