Overall Bets: $
Best Win Bet: $10 win on Flexceptional in the 3rd
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 win on Windsong Glamourous in the 10th
Best Place Bet: $8 place on Windsong Glamourous in the 10th
Best Show Bet: $10 show on Peppermint Patti in the 2nd
Best exactor bet: $2 exa box 4-6-7 in the 2nd
Longshot exactor bet: $2 exa pw 6 with 2,3,4,7 and 2,3,4,7 with 6 in the 10th $16
Best Exotic Bet: : $20c pick 4... 2,3,4,6 with 1,5,6,9 with 3,6 with 3,5,8,10 in the 7th
Worst Bet: Slight Touch to win. $8
Stanleysontheway $8 to win
Freddie $6 to win
Stanleysontheway is a very impressive colt. Big, strong, fast and seemingly gritty. But, like most Muscle Mass's, he looks erratic. McNair handled him expertly last time, making sure to keep him in contention without risking him blowing up. I think he does similar again, and if he stays close enough, takes this bunch, which doesn't appear as strong as the favorite he took down last time.
Freddie is fast. And he is a Sire Stakes winner. 2nd off the shelf, and he is likely raced harder tonight. He was 3 deep while trotting 28 flat in the 3rd quarter last time. And that bunch was far tougher than these. If he doesn't have to work for it as hard, he has an edge on talent on most of these. Solid 2nd pick if you want to avoid the risky top choice. He seems to be over his breaking issue at the end of last year, but he needs to start better again. Tonight, he might.
Game On Hanover certainly can't be faulted for her post 10 score last time. She was full value. She moves up here, but so do all the contenders. I am leary to take the short price on her here, but would not play against her. I will use her in the double, but avoid her otherwise. I think my top choice is the far superior prospect and talent, but....in any given race with these types, anything can happen.
Cool Creek Valley goes first time Moreau from a novice trainer. While that is a great angle, and we have seen far worse young trotters lately turn their form and talent on a dime when Moreau becomes the boss, this one faces others who wont be easy to take down, even with a lot of improvement. If the program is to be believed, Moreau has had her only 7 days. I'm certain she gets hammered on the first time Moreau, Trevor driving angle. I will play against her and the short price.
Lady Ping finally got it done last time, with a little help from the only two contenders who both blew up before the gate left. That was all it took. Not likely to see a repeat of that here. She might just live in this class while she earns a nice living in the Grassroots this summer.
Peppermint Patti $8 to win
Shutthefrontdoor $6 to win
Peppermint Patti has won me over. Some horses just change and improve. It is only stubborness that ignores that. I have to view her now as she is, not how she was. She is just one of those that clicked in with age. These aren't tough, and she is sharp as a tack. Top call, with confidence.
Shutthefrontdoor appears to be the danger. She is fast, and has come along for Sinclair, who is one of the best out there. He can never be ignored and races them where they will do. She is in the mix, but a likely shorter price than my choice. Hard to separate them.
Drivingthedragon off her last 3, she is impossible to like. Auciello loves to go the lasix route, but he hasn't yet with her. That tells me its something else, possibly a tie up issue. I just can't see her lasting against many of these who are way sharper, and possibly talented than her. So far, when pushed, she folds. Unless she shows me otherwise, I will continue to believe that. These aren't soft.
Flexceptional $10 to win
Flexceptional is just the type of horse that either finds trouble or gets herself into it. Eventually she will get a favorable clean trip. She was a solid 2nd last time, and none of these look currently like they could beat the one that beat her. From the middle of the gate, she blasts this time. Jody has hinted a few times trying to leave with her but she didn't get there. Tonight, she goes coast to coast.
Go Get Bruce moves up after an impressive maiden score. But, he didn't beat much and there are some seasoned tough cookies here. I am on the fence on this one. So, I will call him for 2nd and leave him alone. For now. In a month, he might be the best of this bunch.
Mass Rail has been racing well but didn't look good coming after the leader last time. Moreau doesn't get them all going. I will go against her tonight, and the likely short price again. My top choice blasted by her last time when free. I view her as the better filly, with trainers of equal ability.
Alfa Mersaides moves up from maidens without winning, because she had won before. Those types rarely get it done, and her last to 2nd style wont pass the majority of the contenders in here. Some of them maybe, not all of them.
Other than the top two choices, who I am going against, its hard to like one of the rest, or pick them to win. So, I wont. It's one of them, but I haven't a clue which. If you are playing pick 4, I would play all, or if you are a bit more daring, all but the top 2 I am playing against and maybe another you think you can exclude. Excluding is dangerous here. I think a bomb is in the ground here ready to blow.
A Lot of Sense certainly has talent and appears sharp. However,
she has a history of going off form fast, as most of these types do.
Very short price tonight, and I will go against her. She is dangerous,
Delight goes first off the claim for Fletcher. I can see her going
backwards, not forwards. She isn't the type you can blast out of there, and Jody is the type to try that anyway. It says here she goes in the wrong direction on the far turn.
So many of these could step up, as is the norm with this class. So, I wont bother to try and figure that out 7 hours before post time without seeing them on the track. I will just play against the likely shortest priced horse I can see blowing up. I would say to watch the post parade and look for something...both good and bad that might bring value. I will be doing that.
Climb Higher has always appeared to have that crazy talent that most Muscle Hill's do. He put it together last time for team Baillargeon. He is just as capable of going the other way this time.
Lights Go Out was her old self last time, and looked a cinch winner coming to the wire. As per his fatal flaw, Phil stopped driving her for a bit, and she got passed on her inside by one who had tripped out. Tonight, they will be all over her, and she has a habit of going bad just as fast as she goes good. I will avoid her tonight, and slot her 3rd. Phil needs to wake up and start driving like a good driver again. His mistakes are piling up lately and he is going to be off the circuit if this persists. He is on the clock now. I will watch this one. I can't play him and this one at the short price tonight. Last time was the time to cash. He blew that.
Oceanview Bindi is another to consider with this wide open grab bag. She likes the front, her driver likes the front and she will get it again this time. She could hold on. I'd use her in the pick 4. She needs things to go right for her to last to the wire.
Eat Me Up has longshot potential here. These are her kind, this is her proper class level and you don't win 392k without beating some decent horses along the way. The price would be right. Another to use in the pick 4.
None. I wouldn't be all that surprised if any of the 10 of these won this. No books for me.
Twin B Wrangler $6 to win
Intended Style $6 to win
Twin B Wrangler went coast to coast, and around the shore to get there last time, lucking into a fading Crown Isle
who had nothing and laid down for him. He can certainly do that again,
and he gets my top call at a fair price. He has a shot.
Intended Style is likely
to gun out and then let my top choice go. He trips out, he is another
who can win this. Use him, but not if the price is short like last time.
Forego the Cigar Jarvis wises up and lowers the tag to draw better. This horse just doesn't leave though, so instead of getting away 10th, he likely gets away 8th. That still doesn't do much for him. He is possible, but I have to see him do something positive before I can play him. I have seen him do that before, so I wouldn't play against him either.
As with these mostly, its fairly wide open. Take the price and take a few or more than a few for the pick 4 finale. It could make your ticket.
Slight Touch. Bettors just love the first time Montini, off the claim angle. I think its an overbet one, and this guy has been good, but spotty at Rideau. The fields are short and not deep there. These aren't bearcats, but many of them look a lot better than him. He gets hammered tonight, I book that action. Beat me.
Rave On looked pretty lame in the post parade and scoring out last time. However, he is a warrior and he gutted it out again. I think he is better suited for an 8k than this, so I will book his action. Phil doesn't win that many lately, so the odds are in my favor here. He wont be super long off that last good finish.
Waasmula I fucking hate this mare. Hate her. So, let me repeat. I hate her. A lot.
American In Paris Is quickly gaining on Waasmula for the hate her list. Between the two of them, I am learning to appreciate broccoli and spinach more.
Pass this race. Hate them. I will watch and enjoy. Not bet.
If you can pick a winner from these, you are a better man than me. Or just lucky. I will just say two things on Joseph Gerard. A qualifier is not a race and you can do and use a lot of things you can't in a real race, with the judges and security around. Secondly, P Mac knows this horse and has driven him when he was good Joseph Gerard. If I thought he would be for sure a short price tonight, I'd book him. But, he could easily pop just this one time at fairly high odds, and that is not a risk I would take now. At post time, I would look elsewhere if he were to take big action. Post parade is again key with these, as with my earlier comment.
Windsong Glamourous $10 to win
Windsong Glamourous, my win longshot play of the night, is as good as she can be right now. Cochrane knows how to get them ready and keep them good. The post is favorable, and she only needs to be in contention on the far turn to have a very good shot at decent odds. Hopefully Phil brings his A game on this one.
I don't like any of the other logical ones at the price they come with tonight, so I will list the ones I think are value play against types there.
Nat A Virgin she is one I have never liked, and others love her enough to keep betting her as chalk and making excuses for her when she loses. That likely continues tonight. I feel she is vastly overrated, as is her trainer.
D Gs Pesquero. She would blitz this bunch if she had held the form she had a few weeks ago. She simply hasn't. She has been raced hard for a long time now and that is showing in her performance. She will be sent down the pike tonight at short odds, and I think she gets picked up, maybe even for the entire ticket, but certainly for the win photo.
Greystone Ladylike, much like the one above, was really good two months ago, but is another who tails off bad and loses a lot on the way down the ladder. Her form and freshness are in serious doubt.
Jabas Luck raced well last Sunday, but she is in way deeper with this bunch. She has not proven she can go with the best of these, whichever happen to show up tonight. Not for the win. Yet.
Miss Coco Luck is another who has tailed off sharply the last 3 weeks, after tripping out and scoring at big odds. I wouldn't book her big price tonight, but she is a no play at this point. Perhaps a rest and then a drop back down will help her in the fall. She seems in a bit of trouble when the miles go south of 1:52.
Not a stellar bunch, to say the least. Who beats the chalk in here? I don't know. Somebody. That is the angle. Play the late pick 4, and leave the chalk off or play her very short. Any one of Gracies Parade, Bet On Hill and a host of others are capable off the right trip and a career night for them. It happens. All the time.
Lovely Erin gets hammered tonight on the better post, good form, Adams gas angle. I will take that 3-5 action. She has issues. Maybe she overcomes them again, maybe she doesn't. Its a solid risk/reward play.
War Filly $6 to win
War Filly I am on the fence on her and the shorter price that comes tonight. Her last was good. Very good. She isn't very sound, but she is iron tough. Aptly named. She is likely just enough value that I will take my shot with her. Looking for about 5-2 or higher.
If my choice fails, it could be any of them and the price will be huge. I wont tempt that fate. I win or lose with my choice in this one.