Saturday, May 16, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 16, 2015

Overall Bets: $
 Best Win Bet: $10 win on Bob Ben and John in the 6th
Best Longshot Win Bet:
$10 win on Adversity in the 1st
Best Place Bet: $8 place on Piston Broke in the 7th
Best Show Bet:  $10 show on Captive Audience  in the 3rd
Best exactor bet: Race 6  $4 ,  2-5
Longshot exactor bet:  None
Best Exotic Bet: : Race 4
Exotics: Pick 4 $1....3, with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8 with 2 with 2,4,5
Worst Bet: Pierce Hanover to win. $10
Most likely high superfecta payout: Race 5

Race 1


 Adversity $10 to win

exotics $2 ,  DD 1 with 1,4,5,7,8,9

Adversity--I will go with him as my top choice. Fillion is really in the zone lately, and Moreau is Moreau. This horse has always had a lot of talent, and the switch from Per has really done the trick, as it often does. Other than a brain cramp trip to Flamboro, this horse has been solid and might have a future on this circuit at the higher end. Top call from the rail tonight, even though I realize I might be looking at 8-5. A duplicate of his last beats this bunch. Why not? He seems to be still peaking and he probably hasn't been tested to his full ability yet.

Whiskey Tax-Obviously the class is there, but he usually comes out of the box slow off a long layoff. Durand will put Randy or Jackie Mo on him when he is ready to score. Unless there is a driver change tonight, I will pass on him for the top spot. Always dangerous enough though at this level.

Mms Lucky Boy- Is so trip dependant at any level, that he is hard to play unless you get big odds, which you wont tonight. I have to slot him 3rd as the top 2 just look better than him. He is capable enough if they both blow up for some reason.

Play Against:  All the rest and Whiskey Tax
Don't like any of the rest, so I will book them all. One of my top 3 is the winner, most likely my top choice. Whiskey Tax has a shot, but the short price makes him a good play against.

Race 2


Youre Majestic $10 to win


Youre Majestic--
is about as erratic as they come. But,  when she behaves, she has more talent than this entire field put together. Fillion sticks with her which is a very good sign. As mentioned in Race 1, he is in the zone lately.
She was keeping a lot better company than these last year and was just about as good as them then. If she is right, she is the one tonight.Top call. Risky call. But top call.

I will use a host of others in the double that all could do it under the right circumstances, but all have huge holes. Those include Alacrity (driver), A Little More Love ( layoff), Totally Ripped (manners), R ChooChoo Charlie (manners and post), Utopia (manners, gait, soundness, post, stale date).

Play Against:  I am Special and Magic Madness

Race 3


Captive Audience $10 to win


Captive Audience has drawn poorly twice with some tough customers who got way ahead of him. However, his back halves were huge both times. Tonight, he gets away closer, has speed to chase again and Randy knows how to win these types of races. Top call at probably an okay price.
xxxxA lot of horses will contend here, many with styles that go against each other. Musselsfrombrussels likes to wing it, but gets leg weary and drifts out if he goes too much. Camaes Fellow likes the front, and many nights insists on it, which Drury is happy to oblige him with. Those two will only hurt each other here. Three of Clubs and Luckbewithyou were both hard used early and spent late in the CC Cup. They might take a while to learn how to deal with aged horses who can take their best and spit them back out. Thunder Steeler drops, is sharp enough, but draws the 7 hole outside strong leaders and he wont get the front, or gets hung the mile trying, and he is rarely the type that likes to rough it. The rest seem a bit overmatched tonight.

Race 4

Nat A Virgin $4 to win 
I Got To Boogie $4 to win
Exotics: Pick 4 $1....3, with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8 with 2 with 2,4,5
Nat A Virgin, not always the most reliable mare, but speedy and a proven stakes winner, gets CC in the bike tonight over Jones, and is one more race fit. Hopefully, she is rated a bit better and doesn't have to go suicide fractions like last time. Top call, but suspect on her.
I Got To Boogie has improved greatly as of late, as has Mario and all of Ben B's. She almost pulled it off in this class last time, and I'd have to use her again considering all those angles. Maybe she gets to the 2 hole and rides the top choices back. That makes her dangerous. She showed a first quarter in 26.3 two back, and she wired them that night, so, she is capable of firing that early bullet and lasting if saved a bit in the middle stages. I certainly include her in any exotic I might play.
Wildcat Beauty had her shot last time and couldn't quite get there. I'd have to use her again tonight in the exotics, but last time was her best chance to upset. Minor chance to me tonight. A Mac just can't seem to win a race. He is ofer for the meet and we are 6 weeks in.

Race 5

Justasmalltowngirl is capable enough in a field with many who either show up and wow you, or don't show up and you curse them. For the price and the good starting spot, I will take a shot on her. She is iffy, but she has good nights and her gate speed is a plus. Her last was pretty good.
Power Move has upset potential if things go his way. He is a real in and outer. The price is likely big tonight. I'd use him.
Paper Backed Lindy is another who shows you something some nights, and then shows you he has no heart or great the rest of the time. He can be used in this grab bag of hard to like types.

Race 6

10 win place and show on Bob Ben And John

Bob Ben And John Brings serious value tonight, assuming Pierce Hanover takes heavy money and Closing Credits takes enough also. At 2-1 or higher, this horse is great value, my top call and my best bet of the night. Casie will have him ready and in my view, when right (which he wasn't in the fall) towers over this bunch.
Play Against: 
In view of my top call, I will book the balance. Only Pierce looks dangerous to me, and he will be a short price. The rest don't look like they threaten for the top spot.
Race 7
Piston Broke $6 to win 
Nickle Bag $4 to win
Piston Broke has been knocking for weeks. He is bound to go in at some point. The price will be right, and Trevor is a good guy to ride when he gets hot. It wont be easy. Top to bottom, this is a tough bunch.

Nickle Bag is always dangerous with the potent combo of the horse, Jackie Mo and Bill Robinson. He is an opportunist. There might be opportunity here if there is battling again.

State Treasurer has to command respect, with his driver and his past performance. But, like American In Paris, he is becoming a major chalk burner, and I suspect he gets hit again one more time tonight. I wouldn't play against him, but he is getting hard to like. These aren't a soft bunch.

Race 8

Reverend Hanover. Obviously, he looks like a cinch in here. So, not wanting to take the short price he will bring, I will pass on the race and just watch. I do like The Rev, Melmerby Beach and a couple of others if he were to get scratched for some reason. If not, I will watch them and admire him, and keep my eye on him to see what he looks like as he heads towards the big date in a month.

Race 9

Cant say I like anything in here. so, I will play against the most obvious ones for the reasons I give below.

Play Against: 

 Calgary Seelster is logical enough, but has always had a habit of disappointing when you expect him to step up.

Burning Shore has got the bump, and now appears to be sliding back. No excuse last time.
Rock Me Amastreos improved first time Snowden to Auciello with the lasix chaser added. Now, he has to beat real horses. Not as easy as we saw with An Angel Shes Not last night.

Race 10

Aslan $10 to win 
Prince Clyde $2 to win
Aslan takes the monster dive, has been racing okay, and gets a much better post. Short price, but hard to go against with this terrible bunch who only seem to beat each other and have a new kid in town who can actually beat better.
Prince Clyde, if the top choice fails, is capable enough and will likely bring a big enough price to play if you want to go another way. I wouldn't avoid him entirely.

Play Against:
the balance. they are chasing minor prizes tonight.

No comments:

Post a Comment