Thursday, July 2, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: July 2, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $10 on MS MAC N CHEESE in the 8th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on
Best Place Bet:$10 on
Best Show Bet: $10 on
Worst Win Bet:  $10 on  UNITALIANO in the 2nd

 Other bets

$10 Show on  in the 

MS---minor shot
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watching for a future play

Race 1

Overall synopsis: 2 year old trotting fillies, most unseen. Crapshoot. 

Probable Favorite: READY ANY TIME

READY ANY TIME  Is out of a very nice trotting mare, who made 400k, has trotted a fast mile already, clean--her second clean line--and has a top trainer and noted driver who is good with young trotting fillies. She seems to have a bit more gate speed than many of these, and if she gets away clean and gets a soft half, she would be very tough to beat. You will likely be taking a short price to back her,  and I'd say 7-5 is my bottom limit. And that is pushing it. 

LIBERTY LANE  is two for two in the baby races, and now meets some others who have done well in those but left faster and gone faster overall. That doen't mean she can't do the same, but I'd only use her as a backup to my top choice on the chance she runs. If she does not, I'm not certain this one has achieved the type of speed she needs....yet. 

SILKY FLASHY NFAST  is a half sister to Rockin With Dewey, who is also very fast, but took some time to get her act together. I'd want to see this one at least once before I touch her. No play for me tonight, but she is logical to make the ticket if she trots the whole way.

 Play Against:

CASH BONUS put the trotting hopples on last time, after two breaks at the gate. 

The rest:

WINDSONG CHANCE---certainly has to be respected as a pupil of Beaver, and she has done okay in the preps. I like others better here, but I will be watching her, and all the rest, to see how they look in the flesh for the Sire Stakes tries. 

DANISH DARBY---looks as good as any of them but will have to be seen. Bax/P. Mac combo must be respected, and they win with a lot of first time trotters.At this stage, maybe this one is a couple of steps behind the top ones in here, and will develop within the month, aimed at the Sires Stakes in August. She is a prospect at this stage, as most are. The next few weeks will shake out the good ones from the ones going back to the field for the winter.

CRAZY WILD DESIRE---has a big time dam and good connections, but doesn't look ready to compete at this point. 9 hole only adds to my thoughts that she is out for a trip tonight to gain more experience at 50-1 plus. She needs to take about 3 seconds off her time to even be in the mix for the ticket at this stage.

COULD IT BE MAGIC---One thing about Wayne Henry, which is a Henry family trait, is that the 2yo's come to the races ready to compete and make money right away. They don't keep the aged ones, so they get whatever they can early. Longshot chance if she can get away good and a few others self destruct, leaving her a soft trip to come back on again from in the lane. Exactly the trip he got last week for his 2yo trotting colt who was 2nd at boxcar odds.
Race 2

Overall synopsis: Same as race 1, but colts this time. It's a tough double to play if you are playing it.

Probable Favorite: UNITALIANO BI

V FOR VICTORY  has upset potential from the 10 hole. Young trotters, if they can step off the gate very fast, negate the bad post. This might be one of those. I'd be looking for a price, at least 5-1 and maybe closer to 7-1, depending how he looks parading. The main issue is he made the lead in 32, but he showed very quick speed finishing. The unknown factor is whether A Mac will attempt to use it at the start. On any aged horse, that is a given. 

DEWEYLOVERNLEAVER  has finished well in both qualifiers, once cutting it, the other time closing into the speed. That is the type of versatility you like to see from a young trotter and adds to his appeal, which is already high with the Beaver/Trevor Henry combo added to the mix.

SKYFLEX  ships in from Trois Rivieres off two decent qualifiers with the idea to see if he is good enough to leave here and compete in the Grassroots in the coming weeks. The jury is out. I like the 2:04 mile over that bull ring track. That is probably 59 and change mile here and another second improvement with Luc puts him in the mix if he is as the page suggests. Have never seen him, so, post parade is key.

 Play Against:

PAVO in typical Eddie Green fashion, he has sent this green 2yo twice and had him stop outright once and get passed easily the other time. I can't back him when I see that kind of lunacy. He might be the leader at the half, but that wont concern me. Unless a whack of them run and he gets off on his own, I expect he gets swamped coming out of the turn. 

UNITALIANO BI  looks impressive enough for Jones, who holds the lines tonight. I will pass on him and his likely short price and take his action. As mentioned elsewhere, the Manofmanymissions might have gait issues, and this one doesn't have the trotting hopples on yet. His qualifiers are impressive. No doubt about that.

The rest:

IM A MATE---is one I would toss immediately until I see something to make me think otherwise. A break on the card, which is not a big deal for most, but terrible connections who have trouble making the aged ones behave, let alone a green 2yo.

WILLYORWONTHE---at one time Bill Megens was a big time player with young trotters. That time has passed. I can't go near this one unless I see something on first viewing.

DIVIDE N CONQUER---has a big time speed pedigree, but is also likely to be erratic and hot on the track until some experience kicks in. I will just watch tonight. This trainer/driver combo had a lot of 2yo trotters run last year.

ANDOVERS CHOICE---showed nice back half speed and is one to watch...just watch tonight to see if he can get down to the half like that and keep going...flat. 

DERIVATIVE---total pass for me. Not enough speed yet, post 9 and Blair drives. Blair rarely drives unless they are a work in progress.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Is Wrangler Magic just too good for this bunch. Probably. But those were tough miles she went to win the Fan Hanover. That can take a toll. A short price awaits anyone who wants to go back to her. I'd be more inclined to use her and two others in an exactor box on the chance she gets picked up by a price horse, or two.

Probable Favorite: WRANGLER MAGIC

WRANGLER MAGIC  might have a gear some of these don't. None of these have beat 1:50 yet, but she has and she has beaten the best 3yo's out there. If she is as is, then she is the best here. That means you take 3-5 or so, and I'm not certain I want that. There are capable ones behind her, and if she were to have an off night, she isn't that much the best in my view. Your call. 

DELIGHTFUL HILL  has developed well and can't be discounted here. She was in total control last time and has taken to Carmen's program like a fish to water. He clicks with certain types, and she might be one of those. If the heavy chalk is going down here, she could be the one. Note that Ride Away Shark jogged last time, but couldn't get near her the time before when they met.

CAST NO SHADOW  won her last, but the ones behind her are mediocre lower conditioned types. That doesn't mean she can't go with these, because she has beaten ones just as good when on her game and getting the right trip. I think she is 3rd best here, but she has enough upside I'd use her on top to be safe. For the win, I'd want 3-1 minimum.

 Play Against:

TESSA SEELSTER is really good right now, but she meets another level of filly who she can't boss around. Her last try with them found her repelled and flat at the end. Same here I think. She is improved, but not up to the top 3 here, in my view. 

The rest:

LOVELY ERIN---was well beaten last time and seems to have found a level, which is likely a solid Grassroots filly. She is already in the final for the Town Pro and has a solid shot at winning that, so this is a nice tune up for her and maybe she makes third and takes home 12k. I can't see her doing any better against some pretty tough customers here. She was on the left line bad to the first turn and bearing out horrible in the lane. That is a sign of trouble. 

RIDE AWAY SHARK---pushed the car away last time and took no prisoners. It wasn't a tough bunch, and while she is much improved, she still needs at least 1 more second to get up to the best in here. I don't see that yet. Back in a Grassroots, she is dominant. In here, she is one of many who pick up the pieces if the chalks fail. Not tonight for me.

WIN THE GOLD---was good for a stretch last year, but she doesn't seem up to this bunch currently. I'd have doubts to even play her in a Grassroots, let alone a Gold with a Grand Circuit winner. She'd need to drop two seconds to have a shot at getting her picture taken tonight. I don't see those anywhere. 

Race 4

Overall synopsis: Can Miley's Big World do it again? If you think she can, she handles these. If not, there are a few options to look at, and my top 3 all use different styles but can win off the trip they seek if they get it and Miley faces the Wrecking Ball tonight.

Probable Favorite: MILEYS BIG WORLD

KIKISKISSINKOUSIN  has seemed to come back around to good form, something she is known for. If she can get out near the top again and find a nice breather, or live helmet to follow, she has a legit shot to beat them all at fair odds. I'd be looking for 7-2, but would take 3-1 if she parades okay. She doesn't always. Watch her for that. 

SAUBLE CLAIRE  is very sharp right now and can do it on the engine, first up, or from behind. That scores her big points with this group. I don't think these are much tougher than the ones she has been facing and beating, and at 9-2, I'd use her.

M G JADE  closed up nicely for a share last time, and generally has come around for Carmen, who does very well with Mach Three foals and fillies and mares in particular. I think the price might be too short tonight, in the 3-1 range, and I wouldn't take that price. I'd certainly use her in the pick 4 and in exactor boxes if I go that route.

 Play Against:

ANDRO MADI is very insistent on having the front, and that might work at the B's in short and soft fields, but here, as with last time, it costs her at the tote board. I think she draws a short price again, and I will take that action.  

MILEYS BIG WORLD  was perfectly driven last time to arrive at just the right time, something CC is well known for. Tonight, you are looking at 7-5 or less, and I will take that action. She doesn't strike me as the type that will last long on sharp form. There are enough possibilities in here to take her if she isn't as good as the last two times. 

The rest:

C C CALLMEKELLY---0 for 53 the last two years, and it goes back farther than that. No thanks. I don't even like her in a non winners 5 at London.

LOTTERIA---an older mare who wins the odd 5 at the B's when the trip works out and her class shows up enough to get it done. Tonight, she races at Mohawk.

KENDAL GUCCI---is making breaks again, something she did at the B's in the winter. She is good when she is good, but once she goes off, she is no good at all. She gets her 6th different driver in a row. That is not a good sign.

ALL CHOCOLATE---closed up with the pack last time, but that is currently all she offers. If you make her work for it, she backs up or hangs. If she were to trip out, she could use that one swift move to pass tired ones. Minor longshot chance tonight on that possibility.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: These are usually tough to sort, and tonight is no different. Mixed bag and it mostly depends how close they are to their actual program form when they show up. I'm not big on Vernon qualifiers, although Antonacci is good and he does very well with Zeron. That will draw a short price on him, and I will go elsewhere.

Probable Favorite: ONEIDA

LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE  is getting started late, but at times last year, he looked like a very nice prospect.

I JASMIN  was excellent last time and the talent has always been there. I will watch tonight, as I think this is a tough group for her to beat, but she could make the ticket if the trip works out. She has lots of go.

 Play Against:

STEEL RESERVE made the top last time in a maiden in slow time and simply sped up to beat the only legit challenger that could go with him. These are tougher, and while I think the speed is there, it might be a few before we see it and CC will drive him to come late and do it right, which means he likely gets 3rd or 4th but is no threat to whoever the winner is.

ONEIDA  is very lightly raced and has been passed around a bit. Antonacci got him going in the right direction with two qualifiers, the last one in fast time at Vernon. That will draw the short price tonight, and I will be happy to take it. I like my top pick much more than this one, and I think the odds will be reversed in terms of the way the public views it.

The rest:

GRANA PADANNO---didn't fire at all last time, and this is a fairly tough group. I will pass on him. He is going to have to step up to 55 land and I don't see that speed from him yet, if at all. The jury is out. Tonight, not bothering with him. 

FASHION TAGMAN---shows flashes of brilliance, and then looks horrid. Whatever it was that was bothering him last year ended up putting him on the shelf, and he took many tries and  two noted trotting fixit men to get him back to the races. Doug Hie is good with these types, but he is not the best driver period, so I will watch one time and see where the horse is at. Can't see him tonight with this bunch.

PISCEAN---gets J Mac as Fillion chooses the better long term prospect, and this one has pretty spotty form. Really good sometimes, then terrible other times. Her breeding would suggest that will continue to be the case, and I will watch her tonight.

RAILEE PRITI---needs about 2 seconds more to go with the top 2 or 3 here, and I don't see that. Back in with Grassroots fillies, she is way more dangerous. Pass tonight.

OCEANA---is the feast or famine type. Crazy speed when she behaves, but its anyone 's guess when the gate speeds up if she will get away good enough to use it. I will pass on her from this post with this relatively tough bunch.

MAGICAL PUMPKIN---post 10 and the move from maidens to nw2 types , some of who are stakes quality is enough to pass on this one for tonight.

Race 6

Overall synopsis: As with most times in this class, you need many to get past this leg if you are going the pick 4 route. I rated 4 of them, and I'd think the winner is in that bunch. Trip wins the race. Who gets it? Generally you go with more versatile types with better drivers.

Probable Favorite: CHOSEN HOMBRE

SURPRISE HANOVER---finally draws inside the 9 hole, and I rate him a decent longshot chance tonight. Fillion chooses Kindly Poet, so this guy gets Saftic tonight. Maybe a new set of hands might change his luck.

WEB CAM  looks like this is the right spot for him, and he gets a better post here. He isn't racing bad, and only fits the condition because of the company he has kept and the post he got last time. I'd use him in the pick 4, but less than 2-1 would make him unattractive to me. 

CHOSEN HOMBRE  seems like a pretty legit favorite, but also very beatable. He just doesn't seem to get it done, and that is troubling, even when he has every chance.

 Play Against:


The rest:

HAIL THE TAXI---I thought of rating this one first or second, because they all win eventually. But then I thought about all the ways this one could lose,  and those were so many to think he gets it done. Which means he probably will at a price tonight. If that happens, I wont have him. I would need in the big boxcars type of payout, and that wont be there tonight.

FOREVER JUST---needed to bottom out at Grand River last time to score. And he didn't exactly slay them. I will pass. He is just one of those who seems like he should be better on the drop, but isn't.

KINDLY POET---tried what Forever Just did, but he went to KD, and ever easier score, but he didn't get it done. His time has passed in my view to win races at WEG. Either they retire him or he dukes it out in low end claimers very soon. He is a warrior, but even warriors have their day and move on to something else. His time  to do that has come. 

CIONA BROMACH---shows little to suggest he can pass the majority of these. B track horse racing at the wrong track in my estimation. 

GET AROUND TOWN---is one I would have used if the post was better and the driver was somebody else. Another day , a different driver, I'd look him over.


Race 7
Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite: CHEEKIE

BET ON HILL  big class dive, new trainer, much better post and a driver who knows how to driver her. Top call, but I'd be looking for 3-1 to make her viable. 

TABOO SEELSTER  has come alive for Kyle Fellows, and these are now in her wheelhouse. I like my top pick better, but only slightly.

GLISSANDO  ships in from Rideau off a gate break and park out job. Galucci takes over, and that is the only reason I list her for 3rd.

 Play Against:

CHEEKIE  goes back in with claimers, and will take a lot of action. She is going to be tough to take down, but she has been good for 6 or 7 weeks now, and that is not likely to hold. Bourassa is likely moving her tonight with this class alteration, and that tells me he thinks its time to take the money and run. 

The rest:

STONEBRIDGE SUPERB---bad form and Billy D. Pass. 

OUTLIER---seems like a mid pack type at this track. The last time she dropped into a claimer, she took heavy money and bombed. I haven't seen anything that changes my opinion that will happen again.

FROSTY DELIGHT---looked good last time on the track and came on for a solid 2nd. Lets see if she can put two back to back together.

ON THE RISE---over her head with this bunch.

MARIGOLD BLOOM---Northfield rat who is better off at the B's.

ELECTRICINTENSIONS---couldn't hold 3rd in a really bad bunch last time. Bad post tonight. No shot.

Race 8
Overall synopsis: Two horse race. Who do you like? I had a hard time picking between the two. I will probably play an exactor with whichever I like best on top. MS Mac N Cheese really impressed me last time how she handled aged mares.

Probable Favorite: SOLAR SISTER

MS MAC N CHEESE  I am going to her on top, because I like my top 2 about the same, but the price will be much better I think on this one. When I have two like that, I go for the higher price. You get beat some, but overall you make more profit. It should be a good race.

SOLAR SISTER  is one tough customer and she can grind even the best down. She will meet one who is tough to grind down. It could be a very long stretch duel. 

CAPELA  came through last time as the heavy fave, but she is back in with bearcats. She appears to be more of a Grassroots filly at this point, but she can get 3rd here. Not too tough a bunch after the top 2. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

EVAS GIRL---In the mix, but she will have to do more to go with the top 2, who clearly have a pretty big edge on the balance of the field.

SPORTS CHIC---Tough spot to start out first of the year. Watching, but she would be likely 3rd if she is fit tonight.

FRANNEY LOVE DAT---hard to see how a filly who cant beat low end condition fillies will tackle bearcats. Suspect even in a Grassroots if you asked me.

MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS---not with this bunch.

Race 9
Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite: COZY BEACH

COZY BEACH  top bred and Casie has them ready. I'm looking for 2-1 here to make her viable. 

SHES LIGHTS OUT  first timer out of a solid mare.

NOONE TO DEPEND ON  could have rated her first. Impressive first start and should go forward.

 Play Against:


The rest:



CHARMING HILL---impressive last quarters. she looks like a pretty nice prospect and one to watch.



Race 10
Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite: GLAMOUR SEELSTER

GLAMOUR SEELSTER  much the best, obviously, if she remains as is. 

ROCK HER WORLD  first time Lasix, Menary/Jody. Beware. 

SOUTHWIND GINGER  solid last time, but no match for the winner who she meets again.

 Play Against:

WANDA BAYAMA tried to wire them last time, but her issues caught up with her again. 

The rest:

JACLYN HANOVER---improving, but still not good enough to win at this track.

COTTONWOOD CREEK---beat maidens, and is progressing, but some of these have a bit of an edge on her currently. 

MUCH ADOO---bit player with these as of now.

ARTIAWITCHTOYOU---tailing off a bit. She will come back around. I like others tonight ahead of her. She wouldn't shock me.


ENNISTYMON---post 10 again. No shot.


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