Overall Bets: $ $
Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet: $10 on POISONOUS in the 8th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 Lisvinnie on in the 6th
Best Place Bet:$10 on Wildcat Hanna in the 1st
Best Show Bet: $10 on D gs Pesquero in the 10th
Worst Win Bet: $10 on Imsporty in the 3rd
Overall synopsis: I like 2 of them, and I don't like the anticipated chalk, who has burned many over the last 2 months.
Probable Favorite: Nat a Virgin
TIGRA SEELSTER last time the trip just didn't work out. She likes the front, but couldn't get it. She had to sit, and then swing around a mare that was not going anywhere, even backwards. That was enough to spoil her chance, as she has limited stretch kick and needs to be close and max out every step. Tonight, I'd expect her on the engine or in the pocket...where she likes and needs to be.
Value Win Price 4-1
WILDCAT HANNA drops just a shade, and she finds a relatively weaker bunch than normal in this class. She has everything it takes to win tonight, but post 9 makes her either gun out and get used hard, for which she will need a second move later, or sit back and be at the mercy of the flow, which could be bad if she gets in behind the wrong one. It's CC's job to figure out how to avoid all that and max out her chance. I rate her about even with my top choice, but that one has great gate speed and a better post, and likely a longer win price. I'd use them both in the double.
Nat a Virgin she has been discussed before. Most overrated mare on the grounds. Every week another excuse. Bottom line is she loses at short odds. A lot.
ALIBI SEELSTER--was a very nice young filly, but somewhere around the middle of last year she fell off sharply. She has never come back to that, and at times looks beatable in a straight 8 claimer. She will have to be seen tonight, but I like many better than her in this spot. She might come back around again at some point, maybe on a barn switch.
P L HURRICANE--just doesn't do enough for me to list her with a win shot. She is capable enough, and her time will come. I suppose it could be tonight, as the choices are suspect, but I don't think so.
HAT TRICK HONEY--is getting up in age and seems not capable of giving what it takes when it counts. She used to be able to do that, and there will come a night where she finds it one or two more times. I will play that it isn't tonight. The last few, she has hung when she had every chance, and these are tougher and deeper than the ones she had a shot at.
LARJON LAURA--enters here off the optional tag, but even in a straight 15 she is iffy. When you add in legit condition mares, many who drop down, she has no shot to do anything but luck into 3rd if that plays out. She might be a solid winter claimer if she survives this overclassification.
TAIL R SWIFT--doesn't seem to me to have what it takes to win races at this track. She is in very deep just to make the ticket. 5th is more likely. Nice B track mare when she stays put. Her problem is she wins herself out of those chances so fast and ends up here.
DOUBLE JOY--came alive last time, but now draws a bad post and moves up. She would need so many things to go her way to pass them all. I can't see it. It truly would be a longshot for that scenario to play out.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
SHADYS M THREE--was a vet scratch due to sickness out of the post parade last time, something that is highly unusual to see. She hasn't looked right to me for a while now, and she is the type who can get it done at big odds when spotted right and receives the right trip. I will keep my eye on her for all of that to play out. For tonight, I can't go near her.
Overall synopsis: A lot of young colts with high hopes that show potential. Tough to sort who is best. I make my best guess based on what I've seen so far and what I know about their connections and breeding. It's only a guess at this stage. Nobody really knows who will end up being the best of the bunch, or who will be the best tonight. At least we have some on track performance to work from here.
Probable Favorite: MATCHPLAY HANOVER
ARSENIC was very impressive last time, and everybody saw that. He takes a lot of tote action tonight, but hopefully just slightly less than the one I am playing against. If he were to drop below my price point, I go to the place pool on him and hope to make a nice return there with my 2nd choice on the place ticket. His final quarter speed is very impressive. That is what wins races.
Value Win Price 8-5
STONEBRIDGE BEACH paced a very strong mile to 2 very serious looking Grand Circuit types. Pouliot is a much better driver than most unknown guys, and I give this one a very legit upset chance. So far this one does everything right and he has shown the high speed needed to compete at this level. If he can take one more second off and get out near the lead, he has a legit shot.
SEMI AUTOMATIC shows very impressive racelines from two baby races, and you cannot discount one who has done what he has to date. The one that beat him in the last fast mile got beat last night fairly easily in a Grassroots. I will use that reference to say that he is near the top tier here, but not quite yet ready for them. Triactor use for sure.
MATCHPLAY HANOVER went a big trip last time, moving to the lead and pacing strong the whole way. He had a tough first up customer beside him and he pinned in the likely true danger and never let him out. He also looked very green parading and might be some trouble on the gate. All that means I will take his short priced action tonight as he meets more than a few that will make him pay for any mistake...minor or brief that it may be.
NVESTMENT BLUECHIP--made a break in his first try but came right back, sat to the half and paced huge from there to win going away in good time. He will need to drop 4 more seconds here, and he has not faced real race conditions. That is troublesome. He appears to be one who will win a few of these over the summer, but tonight might be a reach. Menary was really high on him in the spring and I suspect Jody is under orders to not over race him first start out. I doubt we see him gunning out or first up. I don't think he is ready yet to outsprint the best 2 or 3 in here. Triactor factor, possibly second, can't see him winning unless he is farther along than I think he is.
STAR OF OZ--daylighted two fields of young horses and now tries the top caliber in Ontario. He went faster the second time, but he is still well off what these have gone and will go tonight. His last quarters leave him short, and making the top vs. some of these is unlikely. I will watch him and I guess he has a very outside shot if he can get to the top and has more in the tank. My best guess is that he wont and he doesn't. The fields he has whipped at Vernon didn't beat 2 minutes behind him. I could pace in 2 minutes over Vernon right now. It's a highway. 2 claimers can go 52 there.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
SINTRA--appears to be one of those you expect to drop numerous seconds quickly. I wouldn't even discount him tonight, but not having raced yet, he is at a disadvantage. He is one that I have not seen, so post parade will be key. If one of my top choices looks bad parading, and this guy looks good, I might even play him tonight.
Overall synopsis: Very tough bunch, and possibly the best overall race to watch tonight. Post parade will be important..both to see anything good or bad.
Probable Favorite: IMSPORTY
MAGNUM J has paced two very good qualifiers, and he finishes like an aged horse. For Team McNair, this might be the best colt they have this year and I expect him to be driven accordingly tonight.
ULTIMATE CREDIT was first up last time and finished in overall fast time, although beat at the wire. He is an unknown but shows enough to suggest he could upset the apple cart here. He is obviously suspect against very nice horses who have won against other very nice horses.
BETTING LINE was raced for experience last time and did everything right, include follow well and finish in good time...obviously in preparation for this test. He draws bad here, which floats the price up a bit. In the 3-1 range, I'd consider playing him. One of 3 I like here that could get it done.
HEAVYMETAL HANOVER was full value last time for the win, but he did get a soft half and have the chalk pinned in most of the way until he could not have been caught no matter what. Post 7 tonight and a very deep split of talented ones. I caught him on the win end last time, and I will play against him on the short price tonight.
IMSPORTY is a very interesting horse. He has been driven a very particular way in his 3 appearances to date. When moved, he has a very wicked turn of foot, but once that is spent, he flattens out quickly. JJ is obviously very well aware of that, and I think he starts him up later this time and that might not get him there on time with a few in here who can go enough to beat him off...for now. It remains to be seen if he has more than that one big move.
MC SQUARED--is a homebred for the owners, and tough to get a read on. Like many , until you see these go, you have no clue what they can do. Erv Miller is to be respected as a guy who knows class and what he has, so, I give him a minor shot only on that angle. I prefer others for tonight.
BINGO INGO--raced good last time and got up for 3rd. He did okay, but I wasn't all that impressed and he appeared to me to be more of a Grassroots type. One race is hard to figure these types, so I give him a minor shot tonight to prove me wrong. I think he is overmatched with the top tier in this one.
Overall synopsis: Each of the likely faves have definitive holes in them that lead me to look for a longshot winner. I have settled on the one who is most unknown and has upside potential, along with sharp and improving form.
Probable Favorite: STAR COVER
FEELING CAM LUCKY went a huge trip at Georgian last time to nab 2nd in his first Ontario appearance. He will get my call to step up here and take the next challenge. I am expecting a price for my vote of confidence in what might be there. Nothing less than my price point will do, and I'd actually be hoping for something in the 20-1 range.
Value Win Price 12-1
AMORA BEACH racing at this level, at this time of the year, is an admission that this high priced yearling is in flop territory. Even with that, he is not doing enough to think he can win. He follows along, and he makes the ticket often enough, but he is not going forward like he should, and even last year, he was doing the same. He might need a barn change and some fresh set of ideas to get him motivated.
STAR COVER met his match last time and paid the price trying to stick with him. That one is pacing out of his skin right now and likely makes it to the Preferred in a week or two. I can give him a pass for that, but generally, this guy is tailing off just a shade. I list him for 3rd, but that is a shaky 3rd. He will have to turn it back around. He paced away from them under wraps 3 back, but has found this type of horse more of a challenge to go with start to finish.
MIKES POWERHOUSE draws the 10 hole here and this is a deep bunch. He is most likely driven to finish top 3 and no better, unless there is a crazy speed battle to shoot at for some reason. I don't see that here, so, I will take his action, even though that might be in the 5-1 range.
P L IDAHO was on bad behavior again last time, and that is becoming too much of a habit for me to deal with. His talent is not in dispute, but when he blows up, he blows up real good, as they used to say. I will begin to take his short priced action until later in the year when I see signs of maturity and a price play on the horizon.
LEGION OF BOOM--has soundness issues which have been obvious from day one . He overcomes them at times and races well, but they hinder his win chances, as they did at Clinton and have at other points. On the good days, when it doesn't bother him, he is as good as any of these. He gets a minor shot call if he is having a good night tonight. Post parade will be key.
MOONWRITER--shows flashes of talent to suggest he is better than the whole lot of these. Then, he doesn't produce. He is mid 3yo season, and only has 10 starts lifetime. That suggests there are issues preventing him from reaching his supposed potential. He had no pace last time when he was coming off a rest for being sick. I can give him a pass on that, but I wont play him tonight and I want to see him pace forward and show me I am not overrating his ability.
CONVERSATION BOY--was tossed into the Gold last time, a surprising type entry, and didn't look out of place at the wire, even though he was 100-1. If you follow the circuit, you know all about his breaking issues and the myriad of trainers he has visited to try and fix that. I think there are enough options here that you can pass him over, but he has the ability to make me eat those words.
WIN ONE SOON--is a marginal Grassroots type facing a few in here who are Gold types or close to it. He is over his head with these.
MACH CODE--can be very impressive, as he was last time, and who knows how far up the ladder his talent will take him as you add in experience. There are big holes in many of the top contenders in this one, and he has a shot to take them all down. This is sort of the acid test for him. He isn't likely to try Gold types this year, so he gets to try them here without paying an entry fee or missing out on another chance to take home 9k in a Grassroots when the next one comes along. He has a shot. He has to step up this time. He will need to hit the 51 territory that he has not gone to yet to be the victor here.
Overall synopsis:McNair makes an interesting choice in the 3 he picked from here. That gets my attention.
Probable Favorite: LINDYS OLD LADY
LINDYS OLD LADY got mixed up with some crazy Cowboy battling up front last time and that left her soft to be picked off by a bomber at the wire. McNair sticks with her over others he might have taken, and that is enough for me. She will likely be driven to either cut it, or let one legit one go and come back around in time. I must have my price here to play her. No cinch and I can't budge on the value play.
Value Win Price 5-2
IMAGINE DRAGON went the long way around last time, and still only got beat 2 lengths. I like others better in here, and with her short price expected, I will take that action. She isn't as racy when she has to go around them. In this type of field, she can't one move around the field and coast to the wire.
LOVELY ERIN--seems dangerous enough, and she skipped leg 2 because she was already in the final and took a shot at the Gold. She raced good there, and has a shot here. McNair didn't pick her. That is troubling in terms of backing her.
INVEST IN ART--was one of many in the blanket finish last time. She stopped the time before that and generally has declined since she seemed very live right off the shelf. Almost a no shot for me, but she shows just enough to suggest she could capitalize on some strange driving like last time. If that happens again.
EVAS GIRL--is a grinder, mid pack type who can step up if she stays in and finds a seem while others are backing away. That gives her the minorest of minor shots with these.
ABBIJADE HANOVER--there are just too many legit ones in here to think this one has a shot. I suppose 5th money is possible, but I don't see her on the ticket.
CAVIART SCARLETT--mowed them all down last time after there was some crazy battling up front which softened up most of them. That was then.
SOUTHWIND GEISHA--got buried and shuffled 2 back, then was sent on a mission last time and didn't arrive at the chosen destination, then called 911 on the turn. She has breaking issues at the gate that leave her unable to blast out, and that hurts her up in this company. Stranger things have happened, and those trips leave her an excuse to improve tonight. Barely.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
BEYONCES ROCKN--makes the final because not enough entered to keep her out. Otherwise, she doesn't deserve to be in this race. I think she has talent and there is a good spot for her, somewhere in the NYSS program and if her form is poor but her on track appearance leads me to think she is going to turn the corner, I want to be ready for her. For tonight, she has zero shot.
Probable Favorite: BUCKEROO
LISVINNIE I call for the longshot upset. He impressed me on the track last time, took his time down and appears ready to pop. Maybe tonight, maybe not. But many of the ones in here are suspect win types. Its the type of race this type of horse can win.
Value Win Price 40-1
SPORTING THE LOOK-- has big time speed and talent, but he is prone to run and Jody handles him carefully now to try and manage him. He was good last time at Georgain, but the 2nd place horse would be a big longshot in here.
BUCKEROO comes late, but lately, too late. I can't back him until I get odds and he justifies the risk that he keeps showing up late. So, I go the other way tonight. Solid for the ticket though.
ROBERT HILL--is the type that hangs around and has enough go to pick them off if everything goes his way. That gives him a minor shot here. He chases some tough customers and there are less of them in here.
DIALAMARA--was really good last time at Georgian, but he doesn't always bring it, which reflects a very noted trait of his sire. I will pass on him from out here.
MITTCENT VAN GOGH--has very little desire to win, and likely will have to bottom out to the lowest nw condition to have a shot at that. Might even be a solid play against that night.
BOB BEN AND JOHN--has fallen off the cliff class wise and meets some tough ones here. I wont get near him until he hits a cheap claimer. Which is now what he is.
THE WAYFARING MAN--continues to find the going tough as others meet him at the speed pass and he hangs the last 1/8th. I will not play him unless I see him in a very favorable spot. This isn't it.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
ARAMBLIN HANOVER--is the type that is going to blow up the tote board one night when he trips out and there is a big false fave in the race. I watch him to make sure he is sharp at that point. For tonight, he has zero shot.
Overall synopsis: Fairly evenly matched bunch, and not a race where you can feel comfortable tossing anything. I don't feel confident in many of the positions I have slotted many of these in. Good race to pass over.
Probable Favorite: SOUTHWIND MAYHEM
Value Win Price 9-2
TWIN B MACHNIVEN--
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
MAJOR LEE FAST--
POISONOUS is knocking on the door, and Fillion is a money driver. He wont let Split The House get away with cheap splits here. I think he can pass him if he is in position to do so. Top call. My best bet of the night if the betting plays out the way I expect it to.
Value Win Price 2-1
ROCKIN IN HEAVEN is a very legit threat, but I go to my top choice. You can't fault this guy, and if anything beats my choice, its him. I think he is maybe maxed out on talent while Poisonous is still improving. We shall see. Tough foe, no doubt about that.
SPLIT THE HOUSE knows how to win races, but appears vulnerable and still pretty green. That is the fault that I think gets him beat tonight. He has high talent. That we know. So do others in here. He would have to be gritty and behave.
MR CARROTTS--doesn't currently appear to be up to the top 3 contenders. He has talent, but he might be a better aged horse in terms of beating high end horses like this.
CAMVICTED--not one who can go with these. Total pass.
RUSTYS OVERLOAD--way over his head in here. I doubt he scores a cheque.
TEAM CAPTAIN--seems more like a mid pack type with these right now. Until he drives better and matures, he wont see my money. Tough spot for him tonight against some bearcats and wannabe bearcats.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
OFFICIAL PRINCE--well over his head with these. I will watch for him when he drops back in with non winners types.
Probable Favorite: REGAL LUCK
LIGHTS GO OUT the big finisher looks for the drop and pop here. Its possible, but she isn't reliable week to week. She must parade sound to be playable.
OCEANVIEW BINDI seems to be just good enough to get up for 3rd at this point, and I will call her for that again. She needs to get to the bottom to get her own way, which she needs.
REGAL LUCK overbet tonight I suspect and Dougie took another that doesn't figure.
BROOKDALE SHADOW not sold that she goes all the way with these better ones. The ones she beat last time did not do well right back.
ST LADS PENNY LANE--in the mix, but has trouble going all the way with these.
WINDSONG GLAMOROUS--trip horse who can leave and grind. She likely picks up some money, but she is in tough to beat better ones.
MEA LILLEY MARK--is hard to like off her recent lines. She hasn't been as good as last year. She might need to bottom out condition wise to get the next win.
MACHET ROCKET--hangs with these types and would have to really luck out to take all of these.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
THATLL BE FRANNY--drops a notch and picks up Fillion. I don't like her here in this spot, but I will watch to see if she is still good for a further drop. She needs to be in just light enough to get the trip she needs. This isn't that spot.
Probable Favorite: PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY
D GS PESQUERO my top choice. Avoiding the really top mares allows her to use her gate speed to get out near or on the lead and not have to give it up. That puts her in position to get it done. Lasix appears to have helped her.
Value Win Price 7-1
BET YA is as good as any of these, but I think she is beatable enough and will have trouble passing my top choice. She can go big time for a piece but at this level has trouble going all the way.
PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY I'm still not sold that this mare isn't living off her 2yo superstar status and they are chasing that by pushing a mare that doesn't want to be on the track anymore. Her talent carries her to the ticket most times, but she doesn't have the will or gusto to win anymore.
SKIPPIN BY another dropping away from the top end mares, but I'm not sold she belonged there in the first place.
BEACH GAL--has been relatively flat as a 4yo, like many are, including a few in here. She will wake up at some point. I don't think its tonight.
EMPRESS DEO--got it done last time, but her final quarter was still suspect and she is in very deep with many of these.
HOPE FOR PADDY--has not gone forward for Moreau, and this is a tough spot even if she had. Total pass.
DOCTOR TERROR--tries a level of mare she has never faced, and is likely raced easy as she awaits the next stakes assignment.
Probable Favorite: ELLIS PARK
ELLIS PARK top call. Lots of speed to chase and hopefully he goes straight in the lane to motor right by them all, which he is capable of when he does go straight.
Value Win Price 2-1
IDEAL SHADOW razor sharp, but the price comes down this time. He still doesn't win often, and he is hard to take at short odds like that up in this stratosphere. He is the best he's ever been. No doubt about that.
APPRENTICE HANOVER Jody tried to gas him last time and he never got there. Back to the soft trips and hope one of these times he gets up. I call him for 3rd. Needs a trainer change for starters. Maybe that will work. Maybe it wont. Something has to give.
MAJOR HOMER--seems to be in the mix, but to beat these, he is going to have to do more. I'm not sure that is there. He has improved a lot, but he is now at the level where his talent may not carry him far enough.
J JS DELIVERY--meets some very tough company he has not shown he can go with. He would really have to step up. I prefer others.
PRESCOTTS HOPE--I could easily see him, but until he takes down these tough ones, I will wait on him. He is off the charts lately. This time, something will look him in the eye. We will see what he is like when that happens.
REGAL SON--over his head with these.
BUGGER BRUISER--big mile Monday, but monster rise here. Can't see it.
MACHAL JORDAN---not with these.
A J CORBELLI--post really hurts him. If he had drawn inside, I'd likely have put him top 3.
Probable Favorite: EVENIN OF PLEASURE
SOUTHWIND AMAZON my top choice. Another of Adams that appears to not know the end of a mile. He gets the acid test tonight.
Value Win Price 4-1
EVENIN OF PLEASURE certainly in the mix, and he has every chance. He just doesn't win much and gets 2nd and 3rd a lot. I like him when the price is right, and that isn't tonight.
PISTON BROKE fluked off the win 2 back on a terrible night, but reverted to his hang and come up short game last time. More of the same here. He comes home fast, but rarely fast enough.
THUNDER STEELER--is pretty much a one trick pony. He has to get the top and not be burned to do it. That is tough at this level. I pass on him. He is capable if he somehow gets it. With Evenin of Pleasure in here, that isn't likely to play out for him.
CAMAES FELLOW--might not be up to these at this point. He is one level down a tough customer. He will have to show me he can do it with these in the summer when they go very fast.
SPINFINITI--is tailing off a bit, and doesn't appear to be the top dog in the Adams barn in this split. I will watch him as he floats down the class ladder for the proper score.
TRACK MASTER D--appears over his head with this bunch.
NIRVANA SEELSTER--raced great last time, but this is a level he hasn't shown he can handle yet.
Probable Favorite: STOMPIN TOM CREEK
STOMPIN TOM CREEK top call. He was solid first time Moreau and he just has to repeat that this time. Push Back will be tough, but he can go with him.
Value Win Price -1
CARRACCI HANOVER drops and has a legit shot, but doesn't always show up.
PUSH BACK I would expect Trevor to gas him here, but if Stompin Tom Creek is on his back, he can take him in the lane.
AMERICAN PAPARAZZI--in the mix, but generally he doesn't have the grit to finish enough unless he is at the bottom class.
ALEXIE MATTOSIE--is flat and appears in deep to get anything but a small slice here. Needs to drop.
THEPANINSULAHOTEL--not sharp and the post really hurts him.
LIFEIMITTATESART--will need at least one race to be up to speed.
NAKED CITY--in very tough with these. Can't see it.
URBANITE HANOVER--has a chance if he wakes up. That could be tonight, or it could be a month from now.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
MR DENNIS--will need to drop and draw better. I am watching him to see if he is likely live for that try.