Overall Bets: $ $
Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet: $12 on Rock Her World in the 2nd
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on Mr Mach Jimmy in the 4th
Best Place Bet:$10 on Rock Her World in the 2nd
Best Show Bet: $10 on TWIN B HONOUR in the 8th
Worst Win Bet: $10 on Gerrys Sport in the 4th
Overall synopsis: Top choice looks very solid on many variables. If he is as advertised, he is very tough in this split.
Probable Favorite: VEGAS DREAM
VEGAS DREAM was a sharp winner at Georgian in her lone prep for this. He looks prepared to take these right away. Jack Darling sends them ready.
Value Win Price 6-5
MITTNAGE A TROIS is out of a very good mare and ignore the qualifiers. Arsenault is famous for only making them do the bare minimum in those and having them ready to race when they show up. Not sure he can take my top choice, but he is in the mix.
FIRST CAR shows a very fast line at Georgian, but he was backing up in that one. That is not good in your first start.
BIG RICKY doesn't have fast overall time, but his finishes have been good. Don't like him tonight, but watching to see how he goes and finishes when he goes faster to the half for later plays.
ANARCHY HANOVER--will need a lot more speed to deal with some of these. Bit player tonight.
KIRKTONS CREDIT--has done nothing to suggest he is anything more than a followed tonight.
LEVY TAYLORE--was beat by my top choice at Georgian. I'm not sure he is a stakes quality colt. We shall see.
PODIUM SEELSTER--ambitious entry. He will have to be seen. He has experience. That is a plus. He got beat soundly by Hanover maidens twice. That is a big negative.
WRITERS KRAMP--finished very badly for a purse last time at Georgian, against my top choice and he draws the 9 hole here. Have to pass.
Overall synopsis: The key to this race is if my top choice has been fixed up and can drive straight.
Probable Favorite: ANISTON SEELSTER
ROCK HER WORLD very well bred mare, second start lasix, third start here, and she hopefully drives better this time. She is the value play here in my view.
Value Win Price 2-1
ANISTON SEELSTER I look for a solid effort, and I like this filly for the future, but the jump from nw1 to nw2 is not an easy one and my top choice has the speed to make her work hard for it.
HEATHERS SHADOW crazy move to the half last time, and she folded. Maybe she gets a better trip here. Shot if she does.
AINSLEYNOELLE whipped Georgian rats. Not as good here when she meets real racehorses.
PROMESSE DUHARAS has looked lame at times for a while. Tough to pressure this one at this track and expect she wont get worse.
COTTONWOOD CREEK--tough post. If everything broke her way, she'd have a very minor shot at a very big price.
BEACH SUNSET--not a WEG horse from what I've seen to date.
AMAZING CONTROL--was pretty good last year, but tailed off sharply at the end and has come back really bad. Total pass. Darling will move her soon.
LADY LOU DREAM --miles over her head. Rideau shipper.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
SHESAGAMEMAJOR--not sure what to make of her. She is very hard to like, but there is some talent there.
Probable Favorite: DERECHO
THREE TRUTHS looked sharp at Clinton, and there is more there than they have asked for so far. Top call.
Value Win Price 2-1
NOTETOSELF HANOVER flat qualifier leads me to list him second. I suppose he could step up. Many 2yo's do. I'm not a big Big Jim fan and wont play many of them unless they really show me something. This one hasn't so far.
KOKANEE SEELSTER seems impressive, and if the choices aren't legit, he is very logical to step up. I could have been comfortable listing him for the top spot. Beware.
DERECHO monster qualifier and he will be hammered here with Jones. I'm not sold he will deliver tonight. Might even float my price up higher on my top choice.
CARLOS MITTANNA--has not shown much yet, but enough to avoid a toss.
BAREFOOT BLUEJEANS--not ready for these in the least. Lucky to get 5th money.
QUINT LARGO--McNair picks against his dad's horse here. Nuff said.
NOSTROVIA --will have to be seen. Post and experience hurt this one, and the lines are suspect too.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
EMPEROR--was dog lame on the track last time, scratched and comes back fast. I am definitely watching to see what he brings to the table tonight.
Probable Favorite: GERRIES SPORT
MR MACH JIMMY got stuck on the inside behind dead flow last time, and came home well enough, but the pace really picked up and there isn't much more he could do in his first start. I think there is more there.
Value Win Price 25-1
SURE FIRED BET went a fast race mile last time at Georgian and his trainer knows how to get speed out of them. He is very dangerous and if I play a pick 4, I'd use them both. One of those two to start it off big.
SENIOR K looks like a nice prospect, but post 8 is an issue here. I list him for 3rd and watch him for next time.
GERRIES SPORT blasted home in 25 and change and will be overbet on that. He has a shot, but I'm not sold he is as good in a legit pace, working for it earlier.
ST LADS CHARGER--would need to really step up here. He looks about 2 or 3 weeks behind this bunch.
MID TOWN MICKEY--here for some experience. Only got 5th in a maiden at KD.
STONEBRIDGE BETTOR--has not shown enough speed yet to lead me to give him anything more than a minor shot if he has more and hasn't been asked for it. I prefer other price horses.
UPGRADE VALLEY--has not done enough and I hate his breeding. He is up against it to get a cheque here.
RED DOG SALOON--9 hole off those lines. Nuff said.
Probable Favorite: TABOO SEELSTER
ALOT OF SENSE my top call, and the better post helps her stay closer this time. I think she will get there this time. The 10 horse inflates my anticipated price.
Value Win Price 4-1
TABOO SEELSTER even from the 10 hole, here live form for the new connections make her very viable and dangerous. I rarely play anything from the 10 hole, and I'm not starting with her. If I play the pick 4, she is on it. She can get it done. I just think she wont.
NINETTE B is as gritty and tough as they come. But, when I've seen her at the B's, she is not the soundest one, and the pressure of more speed here will hurt her in that respect.
DELIRIUM I think the party ends tonight for this lucked out hanger. She has raced well, but she has also tripped out.
BIG TREAT--seems to hang around the pack and will get it done eventually on the right trip when they come back to her. I think there are enough legit ones in there that she doesn't get that result tonight.
MO MOLLY BLUE CHIP--connections wave the white flag and abort the condition mission. Dangerous on that angle, as we have seen a few adapt well when they have gotten that type of class relief.
KNEE SLAPPER--terribly lame, but very game and tries hard. I don't like her, but she is hard to discount from the middle of the gate.
MADAME RAYMONDE--nickel bred Rideau shipper. Can't see her being close.
BUNDORAN--okay B track horse. She has never been good enough at this track, and I remain unconvinced until I see anything to the contrary.
WINDSONG IVORY---former and recent 5 claimer who couldn't handle Bundoran last time.
Probable Favorite: THE BIG BEAST
MACHARONI N CHEESE very solid qualifier, and when Joe Hudon has one he thinks is ready early, he pulls no punches and races them hard. This one looks tough to beat tonight.
Value Win Price 2-1
SHADOWS PRO shows flashes of high speed and is learning the game. He has a shot to take these down, and I'm watching either way to see when he is likely to pop if he doesn't tonight. Solid 2nd call, possible winner.
MOOT COURT looks ready to go and time should not be an issue. Besting my top choice, who appears a week or two ahead of him might be.
THE BIG BEAST short price, and I'm not sold he is that solid. Should make the ticket, but he hasn't done enough yet for me to back him.
PLAYTIME JACK--seems okay enough and will have to be seen. I prefer others off what I can see on the page.
BEARLY A SECRET--seems very ambitiously entered here. I think he is overmatched for the ticket, but possible for 4th or 5th.
ARCHANGEL THREE--seems very green and will have to learn to start better if he is to tackle stakes horses and spot them 10 or more lengths.
GOTTI--hasn't got it done in 2 tries with maidens at Georgian. He will have to be seen. You can't underestimate Waxman at this stage. His lines aren't impressive though.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
CONTINUAL HANOVER--I will wait for a better post, but he looks like a nice prospect.
Probable Favorite: OLE JACK MAGIC
DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY has talent, but is very erratic. He is scary to go against on the barn change, and I wont bother with the race. He just makes it hard to play, and the others don't look like they will bring value.
A NASHTY BUSINESS Potvin is a very aggressive driver, and that usually costs him when others won't let him go. The horse has ability, so if he happened to get a good trip, he could easily beat this pretty soft bunch.
JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL finds it hard to go all the way, even at this level. She probably attempts it, but something will probably pick her up at the tote board. Should make the ticket if the trip is clean. Her leaving ability is a big plus.
OLE JACK MAGIC the logical play on the drop. I'm not sold he comes through. He has not impressed me for a long time. I wouldn't take the short price, but I will play against it.
RAMAS LAST SON--had to qualify after two breaks and did so. He has a history of that, but when he behaves, he is more than capable.
WIZARD OF OSNEY--bottoms out..and needs to. Still in tough in my view.
POWER MOVE--has tailed off badly since he was sharp mid winter. I will watch him for now, but he is hard to like based on what he has done..or not done..lately.
DREAMFAIR BOGART--turned it around last time, and maybe he is coming around as he returns. I remain unconvinced, but the talent is there.
Probable Favorite: RIDE AWAY SHARK
RIDE AWAY SHARK looks very much the best to me if whatever bugged her last time was a one time thing. She has lots of go when she is spotted correctly, which she appears to be tonight.
Value Win Price 4-5
TWIN B HONOUR at times she makes me think she is still an OSS Gold type. Other times, she goes off form, Her gate speed and ability to follow make her a viable longshot option, and certainly very viable for the ticket if she gets the plyon trip to the lane.
MISSEVIL is starting to come back around, but this is a tough spot to win. She is in the mix if my top 2 bomb out, which is unlikely.
SOUTHWIND LUNA still stopped last time, although at least she looked sound. This group is too tough for her either way.
--don't thrill me and all look like they are racing for 4th money at best.
Probable Favorite: THINK ON IT
BLUE ZOMBIE looks very ready to come out and pace in 53, and that would certainly beat these easily. He might be a Gold horse being test driven tonight for a 9k score.
Value Win Price 2-1
THINK ON IT I have not been impressed with this one and was not surprised that he laid down so easily when headed first out. I call him for 3rd, but he is a pretty good play against for the win.
THINK ON IT see above.
WINDSUN FALLS--appears to have some talent, but is a couple of weeks behind the top 2 and would need to really step up. I don't see it for the win.
--the rest are bit players who probably travel in a second tier type of race.
Overall synopsis: I will pass on this race completely. Not much form to even work from in any of them.
Probable Favorite: CALIFORNIA SUN
Probable Favorite: ANDRO MADI
ANDRO MADI is very insistent on the top, and it might work this time. The rail really helps this one. Top call, but she needs careful rating.
Value Win Price 3-1
M G JADE She is improved, but I'm not certain she gets there in time.
ROLLTIDEROLL the jury is out on her being good now that she is off the suspended list and the cheater junk isn't in her.
MILEYS BIG WORLD 10 hole is tough for this one. She likely comes late and gets a piece.
Probable Favorite:MYSTIQUE BEACHBUM