Overall Bets: $ $
Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet: $12 on FLANAGAN MEMORY in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $11 on LITTLE RED CHEV in the 1st
Best Place Bet:$12 on O U SEXY GUY in the 8th
Best Show Bet: $12 on LITTLE RED CHEV in the 1st
Worst Win Bet: $10 on SHOE SHINE in the 6TH
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Race 1
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: ZEUS LIGHTNING
LITTLE RED CHEV is much better on the engine, I expect Jody to employ that style here.
Value Win Price 8-1
ADVERSITY won at this level when he came late, then tried better and arrived late with basically the same move. He has a shot in here, but the price will be short and I like another for the win. In the mix.
BURNIN MONEY drops a shade, and is now at the level where he can win off the right trip. He isn't my preferred play in here, but he is viable.
Play Against:
BODY BALANCE just can't seem to seal the deal, even though he appears live and has been in position to do so. I will begin to take his action until he shows me more.
Anticipated Win Price 5-2
ZEUS LIGHTNING drops a bit, and has been showing the signs. He will take significant win money off that and his past history of besting better, but I still think he is a shade short of the win with some of these.
Anticipated Win Price 5-2
The rest:
NO SHOT
WHITE BECOMES HER --has settled in to being a bit player with these. When she works her way down a bit, I will look her over again. Not with many of these as she currently is.
STRONG HOPE--not with these. Beyond his pay scale.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
DON DORADO-was good at times last year, but has not weathered well and will have to be seen.
Race 2
Overall synopsis: Tough bunch to pick a winner out of. Faves look plausible, but also not solid for the price they will bring. I picked two who look to be on the fringes, but could step up.
Probable Favorite: CONTROL THE MOMENT
ADRIAN HANOVER has the breeding, and the qually was okay enough to suggest he is in the mix here. Cass usually sends them out ready to race early. I want my target price here, or I pass on him. Post parade is important. I want to see how he looks and acts.
Value Win Price 8-1
MAX IS BACK needs to go faster to the half to have a shot. He finishes okay enough, and if he can put it all together, when you add his breeding in, he has a legit shot.
SPANIARD shows
a nice race line to some tough customers, and of course, if he takes
another second off that mile, he has a shot. I think he takes some money
here, and I prefer others.
HIGH TIMES
Play Against:
CONTROL THE MOMENT is nicely bred and well prepped to tackle this bunch. I'm not sold he is worth the price he will bring tonight, and I will take that action and go elsewhere.
Anticipated Win Price 4-5
The rest:
NO SHOT
THATS OFFICIAL --looks like he came along for the ride with his stablemate to gain some big track experience. Doesn't look dangerous enough to make the ticket, unless they are really protecting him to this point. Will have to be seen, but I can't see it for the win.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
FUEL THE JOE--didn't go much in his qualifier, and as a New York bred, he is being prepped for those stakes. I think he goes back of the bus here and brushes late for a piece. I will watch him to see how I think he stacks up for his next trip across the border.
Race 3
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: TONY SOPRANO
DEWEYLOVERNLEAVER seems as good as the other legit contenders, but he will likely take the least amount of win bet, and I will go with him. I'm not sold completely on either of those two. He took 6 seconds off his qualifier and likely he can take at least one more, which would be enough to take these down. Top call with the price target met.
Value Win Price 4-1
WILLYORWONTHE was solid last time and full value for the win. He will thus be a short price tonight, and I'm not willing to go to him. He is possible, but likely bad value.
Play Against:
TONY SOPRANO picks up Campbell, and that suggests he is heading for some stakes tries down South. he was very green and hard to manage in his lone appearance so far, and unless I see something different, he is bad value to win tonight. He likely is a top prospect, but he isn't there yet. Campbell might even handle him carefully and easy to get him around and pick up money, but not threaten to win. He did the same with Go Daddy Go last year when he took over for Randy.
Anticipated Win Price 7-5
The rest:
--are unseen mostly and hard to rate. I will watch them all, but I think they are behind the top plays. You never know with young trotters, but they go so fast these days, its not as easy as staying flat like it used to be.
Race 4
Probable Favorite: BRING ON THE BEACH
AXELERATE SEELSTER was buried by Jody last time, but was much improved and very live. Of course, that longshot price is gone now, and I will call him top call, but he is no cinch. I'd use him in the pick 4, but as a single winner, I am on the fence.
Value Win Price 6-1
MULLET BLUE CHIP Randy chooses him over the obvious one, which is curious to say the least. I still can't back him, but that makes me leary to take his action tonight. He will have to be seen. He has not impressed me each time I have.
SABINE PASS 2nd time starter, and he draws better. He went back of the bus last time, closed up and showed he can go the speed needed at this track. He has a shot, but there are others who still look a shade ahead of him. Watching for another day, but that day could be tonight.
Play Against:
BRING ON THE BEACH the obvious choice and he will be hammered tonight on who he is related to and that he has been test driven. Sylvain adds to the price shortening. I'm not sold yet, but he will score soon. Maybe he doesn't tonight and a more reasonable price comes later.
Anticipated Win Price 4-5
The rest:
NO SHOT
BIG APHRO--McNair chooses against his dad's horse here, for one that doesn't look that impressive. That is enough to pass on this one for tonight. He likely needs at least one anyway.
DOUBLE DECKER-0 for 17 maiden who isn't going forward and got beat at Grand River last time. Not sure why he is back here.
SPORTS COLOGNE---0 for 16 maiden draws outside for a terrible trainer. Pass. Completely.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
NEW MIRACLE--almost took down a very suspect maiden who was as false a favorite as there is. Otherwise, he is a bit player with the better ones, and is probably better off at the B's or waiting for a winter score when they are paper thin.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
OPENING NIGHT GEM--very well bred type, but he has a lot of inbreeding and that shows in the problems he apparently has. I will watch to see if he is managable for a future play. Not in my mix tonight for the ticket.
GRANTLAND---draws bad tonight and he is suspect to begin with. I am beginning to think he is the type that will stay a maiden for a long time, make a good buck, and find a soft spot come late fall. I will keep tabs on him and watch for that. Hard to like tonight.
Race 5
Overall synopsis:I will pass on this entire bunch. The amount of effort it would take, likely a futile effort, to figure this one out is better spent on races I can do something with. I will watch them all, and I'd advise an ALL in the pick 4 if you go that route.
Probable Favorite: V FOR VICTORY
Race 6
Overall synopsis:Pretty hard bunch to like, top to bottom. The only thing I can say is I don't like the chalk. Who beats him? That I can't say.
Probable Favorite: SHOE SHINE
JUSTICE DEPARTMENT paced a solid effort to get 3rd last time against similar. He draws good here, gets Fillion, and obviously, based on his lines, is not the first up type, nor the type who is gritty. He need the classic Fillion leave, skim the plyons, then find a seam and come with what he's got. If all that plays out, and it could, he could score at value odds. I will play him for that.
Value Win Price 6-1
ST LADS FLIRT went a fast mile over Sarnia, which is a very fast track, and will now try and translate that to this oval. His last quarters are still very suspect, so I list him 2nd with a mixed bag of future conditioned claimers. Its anyone's race. He could be anyone. Or a nobody in the company of slightly better rats. The jury is out.
WINDSONG LORD bottomed them out at London, but otherwise, while he is progressing, he doesn't do enough to suggest he is ready to win at this track. Minor shot if everything broke his way, but mostly, he is a bit player, trip dependent and seeker with these.
Play Against:
SHOE SHINE did not impress me last time with what he beat, and how he did it. He ran in horrible and there were quite a few rats in behind him. The only one who appeared capable of beating him was buried until he had no shot to get to him. He meets some winners here. That should level the playing field, not in his favor.
Anticipated Win Price 4-1
The rest:
NO SHOT
ALASKAN SEELSTER--nice B track horse who tries his luck with the big boys tonight. I think at best tonight he is sitting back and coming late for a share, to see if it's worth coming back for another try.
SIERRA MADRE--needs a lot more speed to go with these. I don't see it, especially from out here, where he will have to work for it and pass them.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
NOR STAR RENEGADE--has been going the wrong way for a long time, but he shows flashes that lead me to suspect he will turn it around at one point. This isn't a tough bunch, so if that night was tonight, he is capable with these. He has shown fast gate speed before, and if he were able to get out ahead and get a trip, he could be dangerous. Could. Might. Maybe. He is that type.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
MAJOR IN LIFE--off more than a month, I can't go near this one as is. He will have to be seen.
ALIFE TIME EDITION---first time Carmen, and this one has been passed around with no luck so far. I will watch. 9 hole makes him even harder to like tonight.
Race 7
Probable Favorite:FLANAGAN MEMORY
FLANAGAN MEMORY seems to have come back to the races this year in better overall shape than last year, and with his obvious talent, he is strictly the one to beat here. There are enough prospects in here that the price stays somewhat reasonable.
Value Win Price 7-5
MASTER OF LAW certainly cannot be discounted, and trainer Takter hold the lines tonight. He is likely being pointed to a bigger dance, and I will call him for 2nd, but he is iffy to make the exactor underneath my best bet of the night. I'd be looking for something to beat him out of that spot if I like something on the track who shows enough legit Preferred ability to go with the top 2, who are proven at this level.
CATCH THE DREAM beat these last time, and is as good now as he has ever been. He has a history of not holding that form long. Watch him parade, it usually gives you an idea of how is holding up. On his best day, he can take my top 2.
ETRUSCAN HANOVER has become a lot more consistent and he seems to be finding himself. Even from the 9 hole, he can't be discounted. He meets some stiff competition tonight, so I can't list him any better than 4th, but who knows where the bottom of his talent lies? I don't. If he had drawn better, I'd rate him a bigger shot. He could be the one to beat my 2nd choice out of the exactor spot.
Play Against:
none
The rest:
NO SHOT
MURMUR HANOVER --is a gazillion miles over his head here.
RIVETING ROSIE--beat mares with the soft half and gun the rest of the way tactic, which is something she is very good at. That wont play here against many of these. Pass. Very tough spot for her.
WINDSUN REVENGE---has turned into a very nice aged trotter, but he is really up against it with these. I can't see him doing anything but hunting for 4th money, which is a stretch in this deep field.
E L TITAN---first start of the year , 10 hole, with the best out there, with Riina driving=ZERO SHOT.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
CHARMED LIFE--has become hard to like, in that she seems to be a stalker type who gets burned by the pace, and comes late to get whatever can be gotten on that night. When she was good, she moved early and trotted right by the best out there. That makes her dangerous any night. Including tonight at a bit of a price. I'd toss her on the pick 4 just to be safe.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
BAX OF LIFE-bit player with these at best, even when they are soft, which they aren't tonight. I am watching her to see that she is still good for some sort of drop and pop in August.
Race 8
Probable Favorite:BROADWAY PRINCE
O U SEXY GUY draws much better here, and while he is generally win shy anywhere above the bottom class, he is viable here in this soft and mediocre bunch with Fillion and a good post.
Value Win Price 9-2
ROSE RUN ORIANA raced better last time, and she has a shot if she continues to come back to her good form of a couple of years ago.
TOTALLY RIPPED takes a bit of a drop, but I think he needs to go one level lower. I rate him 3rd, but not enough form for the win.
KINETIC KING is hard to toss with his class, but the post hurts, and Roger generally doesn't push him unless the race conditions favor him. Minor shot if he happens to get things flowing his way. Likely on the super.
Play Against:
BROADWAY PRINCE I think he is in the mix to make the ticket, but he just doesn't do enough to make me think he wins this.
Anticipated Win Price 5-2
HIDDEN IDENTITY has not won at the bottom, although he has raced well, but now moves up to face others who have won their way up. I'd take his action if anyone thinks he is going to pass all of these.
Anticipated Win Price 8-1
The rest:
NO SHOT
GIRL DRAMA--scored last time at Rideau, as the back half was above a minute, which gave her every chance to pass very tired horses. Back here, while these aren't so tough either, they do go enough. She is viable for 3rd or 4th, but in very deep for the win.
PAPER BACKED LINDY--keeps making breaks, and qualified with the trotting hopples. That wont stop him from running down behind, and he doesn't seem viable to me anymore at this track.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
CRACKER ZACK--looked terrible at the end for Moreau and comes back with a new trainer. He will have to be seen. I can't see this guy improving on Moreau, and otherwise, he is not viable as he was at the end of the Moreau run.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
ROCKYS FIRST--is the type who does enough to be close and hang around, but rarely wins. From this post, I suspect this is another 3rd or 4th finish. I will watch him and wait for the drop to the bottom when he is likely to score.
Race 9
Probable Favorite:BEACH HERO
CRAFTY MASTER just needs to get a bit closer at the half and get in a live flow. He seems to have become sounder in the last month, and with his obvious talent, he is the one to beat if he has a legit shot to pass them all. He might be moved earlier this time.
Value Win Price 5-2
BEACH HERO is very sharp right now, and can't be discounted. My experience with this class is that it is hard to win it back to back, or keep producing. I call him 2nd, but obviously if he was as good as last time, he is dead tough to take down. He almost got picked up by my choice last time, and I will call it this time that way.
CHEYENNE REIDER was moved up to a much too high level last time, and got the parking ticket. He gets a protection claiming tag here, and back in with the bunch he can pick up at the wire. Major shot, but I like my top choice to outpace him to the line.
Play Against:
ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP goes first off the claim for the new connections. I'm not convinced he goes forward here. He didn't last time, and while he's had one owner for a while, he has been through many barns and never really changed much.
Anticipated Win Price 7-2
The rest:
NO SHOT
AMBLE OVER HANOVER --seems over his head with this bunch to me.
GRANDE SEELSTER--is impossible to like off his lines and the vet scratch. He seems to be a bad claim and will likely be fire saled soon.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
DADDY WARBUCKS--has been good enough at this track before, and is spotted correctly. I will watch him tonight, as I haven't seen him in a while. But, he has upside.
Race 10
Probable Favorite:I AM SPECIAL
CAL CHIPS BROTHER is getting good again, and I will call him for the mild upset. He has to behave, as always, but when he does, he is the best of this bunch.
Value Win Price 5-1
DOMEDOMEDOME is finding her way at this level, and is close to pulling the trigger on the win. Major shot, but she still has to go by them all. She will eventually.
JUSTCALLMERONALD tried these last time, and was on the engine, where he likes it, but collapsed. Something went wrong, and I will call him for a major shot if Carmen finds and corrects whatever happened.
MUSICAL SPELL--has been hanging around and finishing with the pack lately. Its just about time he took the next step at a big price tonight.
Play Against:
I AM SPECIAL seems to be coming around again, but can she maintain? Her history is she cannot, and being a short price tonight, I will take that action. She is erratic and moody. You just never know with her.
Anticipated Win Price 4-1
LEXUS ROCKY might
be in a bit deep at this level to win, although he is definitely
improved and can't be discounted. He has to step up and has not shown
yet he is of this quality. Time will tell.
Anticipated Win Price 3-1
MAGIC MADNESS her short price from the outside likely means she shows up late again.
Anticipated Win Price 2-1
The rest:
NO SHOT
MICHAELS TURN--appears to have stalled at this level. I can't see him making the ticket.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
COUSIN EDDIE--circled some marginal horses last time at Georgian. Maybe that gets him going in the right direction here. I am on the fence.
Race 11
Overall synopsis: Wide open mixed bag.
Probable Favorite:DEETZY
MIDNIGHT PLAY has shown talent before, and is knocking on the door here. He needs a lot to go right, and he is one of a few I rate with about the same shot as the rest. It could be a scramble at the line. He is one likely to be in that skirmish.
Value Win Price 8-1
ROLLWITHTHEPUNCHES had fallen off a cliff this year, and his time with the Coleman outfit is just about over. Drury gasses him this time to see if there is any hope. If he is sounder, he might take them. Big if. He must be seen on the post parade.
FASHION MAVEN exits the Summertime series where he met bearcats he didn't belong in with. This is a better spot, but he will have to pick it up here. Could go either way on this one.
WILDCAT LIGHTNING--in a race like this, anything is possible, even a marginal horse like this who is improving, but was hard pressed to break his maiden. I call him for 4th, but the minorest of shots to win this race from a bad post.
Play Against:
DEETZY has improved. No doubt. I'm not sold he is the winning type at this track. He will have to prove me wrong.
Anticipated Win Price 5-2
LIBRADO HANOVER comes back faster this time, but he still has not impressed me since he broke his maiden. He is a big time hanger at the tote board.
Anticipated Win Price 9-2
The rest:
LONGSHOT CHANCE
SHIPPEN OUT--seems to find it tough to go all the way with these. This is the type he can if he ever can. Still not my top 4 choice, but he is in the right spot to possibly take these if everything goes his way.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
ALONEINSPADES --has not looked sound lately, and I'm watching for a sign of him improving in that matter.
KONA KID ---is spinning his wheels big time these days, and he was highly thought of last year and to begin this year. I keep watching him for a turnaround.
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