Friday, July 3, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: July 3, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $11 on Moonlit Dance in the 9th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $10 on
ALLIE LABROOK in the 3rd
Best Place Bet:$11
DOCTOR TERROR on in the 4th
Best Show Bet: $11 on
Worst Win Bet:  $10 on SOUTHWIND LUNA in the 11th 

Other Bets
Win $10 on

Place $10 on

Show $10 on

MS---minor shot
NS--- no shot
LC---longshot chance
WATCH---watching for a future play

Race 1

Overall synopsis: A very light bunch from top to bottom. Hard to hang your hat on the top logical ones, and hard to go against them with any of the pathetic longshots who are maidens masquerading as Stakes horses tonight. I don't know that I'm comfortable playing Thoughtful Leader at less than 7-5, which is his likely post time price.

Probable Favorite: THOUGHTFUL LEADER




 Play Against:


The rest:

INNKEEPER---is an 0 for 7 maiden who shows promise but meets others who show more. Pass for me.

NSWINDSONG LUXURY---0 for 18 maiden facing stakes placed types and many who aren't even maidens. 

NSJAYPORT ON TH EDGE---in miles over his head at this point.

NSDEMAND AN ANSWER---same as the above one.

MSPARKHILL LANCELOT---his last mile was good enough to consider him for a longshot chance if the top tier aren't that good tonight, and really they aren't that great to start with. I'd add him onto the double tickets.

MSMOLON LAVE---has some upside, but hasn't put it together yet. Post 9 negates whatever early speed he has. Bit player if he stays trotting.

NSSTONEBRIDGE SCORE---hasn't shown he can go with these from a good post, let alone the 10 hole. 
Race 2

Overall synopsis: Pretty much a 2 horse race based on what I see. I went with the 2nd choice, who shows more overall winning determination so far. I'd probably box the two up in an exactor and be done with it. Hard to like the rest even a little.

Probable Favorite: TOP DOLLAR

KADABRASNEWRECRUIT  will get my top call and hopefully bring 5-2 or 3-1. Post is an issue, but he shows some grit when it comes time to trot to the line. Randy is likely to be aggressive with him and I will take my chances.

MSTOP DOLLAR  seems to have his act together now and he is hard to go against as is right now. A short price tonight. Not sure if I want to take that on him, but he is tough to go against as well. 

LCCENTURY BEHEMOTH  ran last time, but has some upside with this very soft bunch if he comes back to his previous line and the chalk runs, which he is prone to do. At 8-1, I think he is playable. 

 Play Against:


The rest:


NSDUH BUBBEES---coming off 2 breaks and some less than thrilling lines when he stayed flat. Good winter horse. Winter is over now.

NSFEATURED ILLUSION---0 for 13 maiden coming off a break. Pass. And then pass again. And then pass one more time.

MSUP THE ALLEY---0 for 10 and he is hard to like. He has some talent, but just can't seem to put it together.

MSGO GET BRUCE---has not gone forward off his maiden win. At this point, I can't go near him. 

NSJAYPORT ALL MUSCLE---1 for 27 lifetime with the 8 hole in with stakes proven winners when he can't beat anything at this track after his very soft winter score here.

MSCALL ME RICHARD---trotted a good mile last time at Grand River but the 10 hole is a big issue here. Likely to make the super, might even break up the chalk exactor and get 2nd, but can't see him taking them all down. 

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Charmed Life always teases you with big efforts and then stabs you when you play her at the short odds she will bring tonight. She makes most races she is in hard to bet. I like my top choice enough to think she is a solid play if she gets the right trip and brings 7-2, which I think is reasonable to expect.

Probable Favorite: CHARMED LIFE



ROCKIN WITH DEWEY  is tough to put 3rd with the speed she has, but I think this race sets up for a closer, and that isn't her. 

 Play Against:


The rest:

RIVETING ROSIE---in tough with these as she is right now.

HARLEY MOMMA---promising and has a shot, but I like others.

CHIVAREE HANOVER---cannot go near her until she stops making so many breaks. 

BAX OF LIFE---bit player as usual. Could hit the ticket if the trip is right and a few don't perform. Same as always with her.

Race 4

Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite: KISS ME OR NOT

DOCTOR TERROR  had a very long trip last time getting the parking ticket in the Fan Hanover final. She didn't get beat much, and if she returns tonight to that type of race, she will be very hard to fend off by whoever decides to cut it. Top call. 

KISS ME OR NOT  gets Drury back and drops a shade here. She is the logical play and will take heavy money. I like my top choice for the price and she is a legit filly to sit on this ones back or stalk her and tip off cover to beat her.

MYSTIQUE BEACHBUM  goes first time Moreau. That angle has not been as good lately as it was previously. I will watch to see if he can do something with this mare.

 Play Against:


The rest:

THATLL BE FRANNY---moves up and faces some tough ones tonight. I wil pass on her. Back down two levels, she is worth a look.

ST LADS PENNY LANE---moves up without winning. Pass for me in this spot.

I GOT TO BOOGIE---likes it on the front but has trouble getting there with the better ones. I doubt she gets it here and if she does, she will pay a heavy price she likely can't afford.

WILDCAT HANNA---is probably a pretty good play from a decent post a step lower. Not with some of these tonight.

SOUTHWIND MISCHIEF---doesn't seem good enough at this stage to go with some of these who have beat far better. Solid Grassroots filly between starts.

LIGHTS GO OUT---The wildcard in the bunch. If she were really good, she would be right there with these tonight. It's just tough to get a read on where she is at. I will pass on her tonight and just watch.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: I took 3 longer shots I think have a reasonable shot to wake up or rebound off a bad line. Any of those 3. I like my top choice best, but barely.

Probable Favorite: ONTHEROAD DE VIE




 Play Against:

ONTHEROAD DE VIE is 0 for 18, and the hard trips have to be wearing on him at this stage. I suppose if he makes front, he can make the ticket. But to beat these, he'd have to show me a grit he has not brought to the table yet. No matter what style he employs, it doesn't get him better than 2nd or 3rd. These aren't a tough bunch, and he is the poster child for that sentiment. 

The rest:

EASTON ROAD---an interesting entry and has longshot potential. Was tossed right into the Grassroots last time at Grand River and came away with 2nd. He might even take heavy play, and I would not be going near him at this stage. Jody takes over here.

THEREGOESTHEGROOM---comes in after a 3 race maiden beatdown at Rideau. If you watch Rideau, you would know most of those are considered successful if you get them to the quarter flat and keep them flat the whole way. So, while he is a winner, he has beat up on terrible losers. He will find the going much tougher here. The jury is out, but my likely call is that he is driven carefully to make 4th money and see if it is worth shipping for more tries. 

MACHO MASS---broke his maiden impressively, but has gone backwards since and Per takes back over. I have to see something more from him to back him in any race, let alone an OSS.

SMORE PIE PLEASE---his last two are horrific, and the last quarters even worse than that.

LETS BE HONEST---got up last time at Grand River, but post 9 is a big issue for a horse like this. I like others better for tonight. If he happened to get away top 3 and was able to sit and come back out in the lane, he has a shot. That is a tough trip to count on getting.

SEEKING STEVEN---is the type that hangs around and gets lots of 2nd's and 3rd's. Post 10 pretty much ensures that is the best you can hope for here. I doubt he makes the ticket.
Race 6

Overall synopsis: At first I was tempted to go to the likely less than even money chalk. And make no mistake, he is very dangerous. But, 3 weeks away concerns me, and I will play my other choice, hoping for 9-5 or 2-1, which would be very good value. Jack Darling sends them ready to win.

Probable Favorite: THE CATAMOUNT KID

HEAVYMETAL HANOVER  first time starter for Jack Darling, and Jody takes his dads horse, as you would expect. If my 2nd choice is short for whatever reason (he has missed 3 weeks) this is the likely one to beat him.

THE CATAMOUNT KID  looks very tough to beat with this bunch. He has speed that is mature at this point, Jody will not be babying him with father Carl as the owner, and I'm guessing he is being aimed at the Grand Circuit if he pans out in the next two weeks. Even at 4-5, he looks like a good bet. But I will play another. The 3 weeks away is a concern and at 4-5 or so, I think its a bad percentage play.

STONEBRIDGE BEACH  you don't see Pouliot stray from Rideau very much. He must think he has something here and wants to test him. Certainly one to watch.

 Play Against:


The rest:

EMPEROR---will need a lot more speed than he has shown in one appearance to go with many of these.

CAROLINA HURRICANE---would be a toss if not for Ron Adams as trainer. I still can't use him, but first time Adams, and on maidens, is a  very profitable angle.

MCPHIL---shows very nice last quarter speed, and will likely pace in 55 or less here. I think that lands him 3rd or 4th, coming late, finishing good and pushing him towards wherever he is going on a positive. He isn't impossible, but I can't see him being raced very hard for not much money tonight.

CHALK PLAYER---made a break first time out, but kept it together last time and paced a strong mile. I like others in this spot, but he is one to watch to see how he improves. Likely headed to the first Grassroots.

ONLY HALF BAD---homebred who also shows nice finishing speed, but will probably be sitting well back early and not likely he can pass the better ones off the program page.

BEARLY A SECRET---very tough spot for one who has been off a month sick and draws the 9 hole. Pass.


Race 7

Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite: DELIRIUM

CHALEURS FANTASY  was solid in her first try at this track but couldn't pass the winner who got away with soft fractions and was accelerating at the same time she was. She will surely draw more attention this time, and I'd still take 7-2, but not much less to play her. Fillion is hot and he does well with these types. She might even draw the claim tonight.

SUCKITUPBUTTERCUP  I list for 2nd. She has the ability to blast and daylight them for as long as that works. Like many of these, you don't know if she will show up that night.

BYE BYE MICHELLE  completely trip dependent mare, who I call for 3rd, but wouldn't play for the win. She would be better from an inside post where she has a better shot at getting the trip she likes. 

 Play Against:

DELIRIUM  got it done last time, barely, and everything went her way. I will be happy to take that short price this time. There are a few that look good enough to beat her. It only takes one. She isn't likely to get that ridiculous breather on the front end like last time. Without that, she usually gets picked up by something.

The rest:

SHHH ITS A SECRET---beat some very bad conditioned claimers at Georgian, many of whom have raced here and been soundly trounced. I wouldn't take a short price on this one, and the Nixon/Trevor combo does not return a very good ROI. Pass for me.

KNEE SLAPPER---draws better here, and is in the mix for the Super, but I don't prefer her. She has lameness issues, as discussed previously and that compromises her when it counts. She is tough and tries hard, so that keeps her competitive.

TON OF LUCK---beat a short field of terrible ones last time, even by this classes low standards, but she isn't likely to get that trip again and have enough room to run in horrible and still win.

BIG TREAT---is 2 for 30 the last two years, and like most Mr. Big's, she has trouble winning races. Pass for me. She is likely more dangerous in the winter.

ALOT OF SENSE---McNair ditches her. That is enough for me when you add the 10 hole.

Race 8

Overall synopsis: I play Buzz as a live horse with a shot. I really don't like this entire field and will just watch unless Buzz is a big price, in the 7-1 or higher range, which is unlikely.

Probable Favorite: NEW MUSCLE AS




 Play Against:


The rest:

Race 9

Overall synopsis: Class and speed likely hold here. I went with that. The balance look like pretenders to the top pick.

Probable Favorite:MOONLIT DANCE 

MOONLIT DANCE  post 10 doesn't hurt her like it does some. She doesn't need to be up close, as she will just range out wide and explode coming out of the turn. She meets a pretty weak group, relative to the top company she has kept and beaten lately. Top call. 

BEYONCES ROCKN  has a minor shot if the chalk fails. she has good last speed and comes well if saved.

CAVIART SCARLETT  to pick up the pieces only. Can't see her being up to this challenge.

 Play Against:

IMAGINE DRAGON blasted by them last time and coasted home. This field is much deeper. She will have to work harder to get to the top if she wants it. I don't see it. 

LINDYS OLD LADY  tripped out and came late last time. The one she beat looked horrid last night and she meets many who appear tougher here. I think she is in deep with this bunch.

The rest:

NATIONALIZE---might be an okay Grassroots filly. These appear to be beyond her reach.

ABBIJADE HANOVER---hangs around and improves every week. I'm not sure she is up to the best in here, but as with last time, she can make the ticket if things break her way.

SOUTHWIND GEISHA---Trevor was half in, half out with her and then decided to stay in. She is a bit of a grinder and trip horse, and likely looking for 3rd or 4th here. 

LIVING HISTORY---hung bad last time, a trait she has developed. Until she shows me something more, she wont see my money until she finds a soft nw2 field.

INVEST IN ART---was hard used to make the lead last time, and bagged it on the turn. She appears to have hit a wall at this point. Pass until she finds a better spot.

Race 10
Overall synopsis: I will pass on this entire bunch of rats. Hardly a stakes bunch, but more like a preview of conditioned claimers at Flamboro come November. 

Probable Favorite: ITS HUW YOU KNOW


Overall synopsis:

Probable Favorite:

ZIP CODE ENVY As good as any, if the trip works out.



 Play Against:

SOUTHWIND LUNA looked dog lame parading last time, and was really feeling that pinch down the lane. Carmen took her, and he goes to work with a shoeing change and bridle change, which is his method when he gets a new one. Change everything he can find in the book. Otis Hall is a pretty sharp guy. I am suspicious any of that will work. He tagged her for a reason and got CA to take the bait. We shall see. 

The rest:







No comments:

Post a Comment